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Michigan Climate and Health Profile Report 2015: Building Resilience Against Climate Effects on Michigan’S Health

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Michigan Climate and Health Profile Report 2015: Building Resilience Against Climate Effects on Michigan’S Health Michigan Climate and Health Profile Report 2015 Building Resilience Against Climate Effects on Michigan’s Health Michigan Department of Health and Human Services Division of Environmental Health Climate and Health Adaptation Program (MICHAP) & Great Lakes Integrated Sciences Assessments Program (GLISA) 1 Authors Principal Investigator, MICHAP, MDHHS Climatologist, University of Michigan Climate Lorraine Cameron, MPH, PhD Center, GLISA Laura Briley, MS Program Manager, MICHAP, MDHHS Aaron Ferguson, MPA Climatologist, University of Michigan Climate Center, GLISA Climate and Health Epidemiologist, MICHAP, Daniel Brown, MS University of Michigan Robert Walker, MPH Contributors Epidemiologist, MDHHS Director, University of Michigan Climate Center, Thomas Largo, MPH GLISA Elizabeth Gibbons, MUP Medical Entomologist, MDHHS Eric Foster, MPH Associate Professor of Environmental Health Sciences and Epidemiology, University of Applied Epidemiology Waterborne Disease Michigan Fellow, CDC/CSTE Marie O’Neill, PhD Leigh Tyndall Snow, MPH Associate Professor of Urban and Regional Applied Epidemiology Vector-borne Disease Planning and Natural Resource, University of Fellow, CDC/CSTE Michigan Veronica Fialkowski, MPH Larissa Larsen, PhD Assistant Professor of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Michigan State University Julie Wirth, PhD Suggested Reference: Cameron, L., A. Ferguson, R. Walker, D. Brown, & L. Briley, 2015: Michigan climate and health profile report 2015: Building resilience against climate effects on Michigan’s health. Accessed at: www.michigan.gov/climateandhealth. 2 External Reviewers MI Department of Environmental Quality State Climatologist of Michigan Water Resources Division Michigan State University Charles Hill Department of Geography Christie Alwin Jeffrey A. Andresen, Ph.D. Air Quality Division Kaitlyn Leffert Joy Taylor Morgan Acknowledgement: This report was supported by the Cooperative Agreement Number EH001124 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 3 Table of Contents List of Figures and Tables ............................................................................................................................ 5 List of Acronyms .......................................................................................................................................... 7 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 9 I. Building a Resilient Public Health System ......................................................................................... 10 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 11 Rationale and Objectives ...................................................................................................................... 11 History of MDHHS Engagement with Climate and Health .................................................................... 13 Geographic Scope ................................................................................................................................. 13 Economic Features ................................................................................................................................ 18 Natural Features ................................................................................................................................... 18 Introduction to Michigan’s Climate ...................................................................................................... 20 References ............................................................................................................................................ 22 II. Michigan’s Current and Future Climate Conditions ......................................................................... 23 Baseline Climate Description ................................................................................................................ 24 Summary of Climate Projections: Description and Rationale .............................................................. 31 Summary of Climate Projections: Spatial and Temporal ...................................................................... 34 Appendix ............................................................................................................................................... 43 References ............................................................................................................................................ 44 III. Linking Climate Changes to Health Outcomes .................................................................................. 47 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 48 Climate Related Health Impact Pathway Descriptions ......................................................................... 48 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................... 61 Health Outcomes Surveillance Systems................................................................................................ 61 Exposure Surveillance Systems ............................................................................................................. 63 References ............................................................................................................................................ 67 IV. Michigan’s Vulnerabilities to Climate Change .................................................................................. 74 Defining Vulnerability Assessments ...................................................................................................... 75 Priority Health Outcome Vulnerabilities ............................................................................................... 78 Climate exposures, vulnerability, and health outcomes ...................................................................... 81 References ............................................................................................................................................ 82 V. The Burden of Climate Change and Human Health .......................................................................... 84 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 85 Future Health Impacts from Climate Change ....................................................................................... 85 Regional Considerations ....................................................................................................................... 87 Summary and Synthesis ........................................................................................................................ 89 VI. Partnerships and Collaborations ....................................................................................................... 94 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 95 Description of Partnerships and Collaborations ................................................................................... 95 4 List of Figures and Tables Figures I. Building a Resilient Public Health System 1.1: Major Political Boundaries of Michigan 1.2: Michigan Population Density (by census tract) 1.3: Percentage of non-White Population by Census Tract in Michigan 1.4: Median Age of Population by Census Tract in Michigan 1.5: Natural Features of Michigan 1.6: Elevation of Michigan II. Michigan’s Current and Future Climate Conditions 2.1: Michigan Reference Map Indicating Latitudinal Coverage 2.2: NOAA Climate Division Boundaries and Climate Observation Station Locations 2.3: Air Masses over the United States 2.4: Typical January-March Weather Anomalies and Atmospheric Circulation during Moderate to Strong El Nino & La Nina 2.5: Approximate Extent of Major Lake-Effect Snow Belts in the Great Lakes Region 2.6: Projected annual and seasonal temperature changes 2.7: Projected change in annual number of days falling below 32 degrees F 2.8: Projected annual number of days exceeding 950 F averaged 2.9: Projected annual number of consecutive hot days exceeding 950 F averaged 2.10: Projected change in the number of days in the freeze-free season, and observed and simulated freeze- free days per year 2.11: Projected annual and seasonal precipitation changes (%) averaged 2.12: Projected annual number of days with more than 1" of precipitation averaged 2.13: Projected annual number of days with less than 3mm (0.1 in.) of precipitation averaged III. Linking Climate Changes to Health Outcomes 3.1: Extreme heat related direct and indirect conceptual human health impact pathway based on climate changes resulting from increased Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) 3.2: Statewide Heat-Related ED Visits as reported to the Michigan Syndromic Surveillance System and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Maximum Daily Temperature Averages for 6 Select Cities (April 1 – August 31, 2013) 3.3: Annual rate of allergic disease-related hospitalizations in Michigan
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