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Options for Solution to the Cyprus Issue 2020

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Options for Solution to the Cyprus Issue 2020 Options for Solution to the Cyprus issue 2020 RECENT FINDINGS FROM A REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE SURVEY IN BOTH COMMUNITIES OF CYPRUS Methodology In the Greek Cypriot community the University Centre for Field Studies of the University of Cyprus gathered a representative sample of 817 Greek Cypriot respondents (age 18+ with voting rights) through multistage stratified random sampling. In the Turkish Cypriot community LIPA consultants ltd followed the same methodology and collected a representative sample of 804 Turkish Cypriots (age 18+ with voting rights). Data collection took place from November 2019-March 2020 Stance on Bizonal-Bicommunal Federation Stance on BBF 37.70% 32.50% 31% 28.80% 23.80% 23.20% 17% 6% ENTIRELY UNACCEPTABLE TOLERABLE IF NECESSARY SATISFACTORY HIGHLY DESIRABLE GC TC Light Green= In favour Dark Green= Could tolerate if necessary Red=Against Light Green= In favour Dark Green= Could tolerate if necessary Red=Against Stance on Continuation of current situation Continuation of the current situation 79.40% 27.40% 27.20% 24.60% 20.80% 15.60% 4% 1% ENTIRELY UNACCEPTABLE TOLERABLE IF NECESSARY SATISFACTORY HIGHLY DESIRABLE GC TC Light Green= In favour Dark Green= Could tolerate if necessary Red=Against Light Green= In favour Dark Green= Could tolerate if necessary Red=Against 13.80% I PREFER NOT TO SAY 24.50% Consider a 13.80% I WOULD CERTAINLY, OR ALMOST CERTAINLY VOTE ‘YES’ hypothetical scenario 30.20% where the negotiations 16.90% between the two I CURRENTLY LEAN TOWARDS A ‘YES’ VOTE, THOUGH I MIGHT AT THAT TIME SWAY TOWARDS A ‘NO’ VOTE communities 21.20% conclude, a solution 16.30% plan is drafted and a I CURRENTLY LEAN TOWARDS A ‘NO’ VOTE, THOUGH I MIGHT AT THAT TIME SWAY TOWARDS A ‘YES’ VOTE referendum is 13.10% organized. In such a 39.20% future referendum and I WOULD CERTAINLY, OR ALMOST CERTAINLY VOTE ‘NO’ if you had the right to 11% vote, how do you see 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% yourself voting? TC GC 18.10% I PREFER NOT TO SAY Voting on Annan 17.60% 36.10% Plan and Voting I WOULD CERTAINLY, OR ALMOST CERTAINLY VOTE ‘YES’ today 55.80% 14.80% I CURRENTLY LEAN TOWARDS A ‘YES’ VOTE, THOUGH I MIGHT AT THAT TIME SWAY TOWARDS A ‘NO’ VOTE Of those who 18.80% 11.60% voted YES in I CURRENTLY LEAN TOWARDS A ‘NO’ VOTE, THOUGH I MIGHT AT THAT TIME SWAY TOWARDS A ‘YES’ VOTE 2004 6.10% 19.40% I WOULD CERTAINLY, OR ALMOST CERTAINLY VOTE ‘NO’ 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Of those who Voted YES during the Annan Plan TC Of those who Voted YES during the Annan Plan GC 3.20% I PREFER NOT TO SAY Voting on Annan 24.50% 8.80% Plan and Voting I WOULD CERTAINLY, OR ALMOST CERTAINLY VOTE ‘YES’ today 23.50% 12.80% I CURRENTLY LEAN TOWARDS A ‘YES’ VOTE, THOUGH I MIGHT AT THAT TIME SWAY TOWARDS A ‘NO’ VOTE Of those who 23.50% 17.60% voted NO in I CURRENTLY LEAN TOWARDS A ‘NO’ VOTE, THOUGH I MIGHT AT THAT TIME SWAY TOWARDS A ‘YES’ VOTE 2004 14.40% 57.60% I WOULD CERTAINLY, OR ALMOST CERTAINLY VOTE ‘NO’ 14% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Of those who Voted NO during the Annan Plan TC Of those who Voted NO during the Annan Plan GC Attributes and Levels The federal executive must be formed by all parties in proportion to their seats in the assembly GC and TC co-presidents elected through cross-voting GC president and TC vice-president elected through cross-voting support of at least a quarter of MPs from each community a majority in the assembly or voters regardless of ethnicity On territory to return 50 villages as in the Annan Plan and Varosha but Morphou to stay in TC administration plus Morphou plus Morphou, Rizokarpaso, Yialousa plus old part of Morphou, Rizokarpaso, Yialousa Morphou and North Karpasia to become federal areas Attributes and Levels Most TC users will keep current properties. Users negatively affected will 50,000 Euros (on average) depending on a fair UN-expert estimate of loss get 150,000 Euros (on average) depending on a fair UN-expert estimate of loss 200,000 Euros (on average) depending on a fair UN-expert estimate of loss 300,000 Euros (on average) depending on a fair UN-expert estimate of loss 300,000 Euros (on average) plus guaranteed housing anywhere in Cyprus The Implementation monitoring mechanism will be led by the UN with the three former guarantors Greece, Turkey and the United Kingdom UN with third party such as NATO UN with EU countries such as Ireland, France and Germany UN with third countries such as Japan, Australia and Canada The Supreme Court that will deal with deadlocks and guarantee human with equal number of GCs & TCs with rotating chair rights will be appointed with equal number of GCs & TCs with a minority of judges appointed by the ECHR with a majority of judges appointed by the ECHR by a special international UN tribunal with headquarters in Cyprus The Conjoint on the screen of participants Choice 1 Choice 2 The federal executive must be formed by all parties in proportion to their seats in the GC and TC co-presidents elected through assembly cross-voting On territory to return 82 villages as in the but Morphou to stay in TC administration Morphou and North Karpasia to become Annan Plan and Varosha federal areas Most TC users will keep current properties. 50,000 Euros (on average) depending on a 200,000 Euros (on average) depending on a Users negatively affected will get fair UN-expert estimate of loss fair UN-expert estimate of loss The Implementation monitoring mechanism UN with the three former guarantors Greece, UN with EU countries such as Ireland, will be led by the Turkey and the United Kingdom France and Germany The Supreme Court that will deal with with equal number of GCs & TCs with with equal number of GCs & TCs with a deadlocks and guarantee human rights will rotating chair minority of judges appointed by the ECHR be appointed Simulations 1 2 3 4 Annan Plan New Deal 1 New Deal 2 New Deal 3 FEDERAL EXECUTIVE support of at least a quarter of GC and TC co-presidents all parties in proportion to their all parties in proportion to their MPs from each community elected through cross-voting seats in the assembly seats in the assembly TERRITORY Plus Morphou Plus Morphou Morphou and North Karpasia to plus old part of Morphou, become federal areas Rizokarpaso, Yialousa COMPENSATION 50,000 Euros (on average) 150,000 Euros (on average) 300,000 Euros (on average) 300,000 Euros (on average) depending on a fair UN-expert depending on a fair UN-expert plus guaranteed housing plus guaranteed housing estimate of loss estimate of loss anywhere in Cyprus anywhere in Cyprus IMPLEMENTATION UN with the three former UN with EU countries such as UN with third countries such as UN with third party such as guarantors Greece, Turkey and Ireland, France and Germany Japan, Australia and Canada NATO the United Kingdom SUPREME COURT with equal number of GCs & with equal number of GCs & by a special international UN with equal number of GCs & TCs with a minority of judges TCs with rotating chair tribunal with headquarters in TCs with rotating chair appointed by the ECHR Cyprus OVERALL SUPPORT 39% 45% 59% 56% [36%-42%] [43%-49%] [55%-62%] [53%-60%] GREEK CYPRIOTS 33% 47% 65% 58% [28%-37%] [42%-51%] [61%-70%] [53%-63%] TURKISH CYPRIOTS 46% 45% 53% 55% [41%-50%] [40%-50%] [48%-57%] [51%-60%].
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