A Fossil Locality Predictive Model for the Early Cretaceous Cedar Mountain Formation, Utah, Usa
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A FOSSIL LOCALITY PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE EARLY CRETACEOUS CEDAR MOUNTAIN FORMATION, UTAH, USA A THESIS PRESENTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCE IN CANDIDACY FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE By DANIEL BURK NORTHWEST MISSOURI STATE UNIVERSITY MARYVILLE, MISSOURI OCTOBER, 2014 FOSSIL LOCALITY PREDICTIVE MODEL A Fossil Locality Predictive Model for the Early Cretaceous Cedar Mountain Formation, Utah, USA Daniel Burk Northwest Missouri State University THESIS APPROVED Thesis Advisor, Dr. Yi-Hwa Wu Date Dr. Ming-Chih Hung Date Dr. John P. Pope Date Dean of Graduate School Date A Fossil Locality Predictive Model for the Early Cretaceous Cedar Mountain Formation, Utah, USA Abstract Hard work and chance are nearly always among the deciding factors in finding new, important, and productive paleontological localities. Fossil locality predictive models have the potential to reduce unproductive field time and maximize hard work thus increasing the chances researchers have to find important localities. This study uses remotely sensed data to design and test a fossil locality predictive model for the Early Cretaceous Cedar Mountain Formation. Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS data from known localities were summarized, reclassified and used in a weighted suitability analysis to categorize fossil locality potential of the study area. Field work was conducted to test model functionality. Field observations were used to refine the weighted suitability analysis. Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS data alone offers a less accurate prescription of fossil locality potential. Additional physical and environmental factors play a role in determining the chance of finding fossils. Slope degree and aspect data from known localities were summarized and analyzed to further refine the model. The usefulness of fossil locality predictive models is dependent upon the quality of input data and methods used to determine fossil locality potential. In order to fully determine the quality of a fossil locality predictive model, field work testing the model must be conducted. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................vi LIST OF TABLES .........................................................................................................vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..............................................................................................viii CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................1 Statement of the Problem ..............................................................................1 Background and Need ..................................................................................1 Justification/Rationale ..................................................................................3 Research Objectives ......................................................................................5 Study Area .....................................................................................................5 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW ..........................................................................8 CHAPTER 3: CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND METHODOLOGY .............................12 Data Sources .................................................................................................12 Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS Imagery .............................................................12 Geologic Maps ...................................................................................13 BYU Fossil Localities ........................................................................15 Digital Elevation Model (DEM) ........................................................16 Published Fossil Localities ................................................................17 Research Methodology ..................................................................................17 Overview ............................................................................................17 Summary of Fossil Locality Spectral Reflectance .............................19 Weighted Suitability Analysis ............................................................21 Field Test of Model ............................................................................22 CHAPTER 4: ANALYSIS RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ..................................................25 Problems with Model ....................................................................................25 iv Initially Observed Problems ..............................................................25 Problems Observed Through Field Work ..........................................26 Revised Weighted Suitability Analysis .........................................................27 Revised Reclassification.....................................................................27 Revised Weights .................................................................................27 Testing the Revised Model .................................................................30 Refined Model: Additional Parameters ........................................................31 Surface Aspect ....................................................................................31 Surface Slope .....................................................................................33 Refined Model Results........................................................................35 Additional Issues ...........................................................................................36 Geologic Map Accuracy ....................................................................36 Unresolved Problems with the Model ................................................41 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION ........................................................................................44 LIST OF REFERENCES ................................................................................................47 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Early Cretaceous Cedar Mountain Formation surface exposure, elevation, and fossil localities ................................................................................................... 7 Figure 2: Landsat 8 natural color composite image centered on the Cedar Mountain Formation ................................................................................................................................. 12 Figure 3: Surface coverage of 1:24,000 scale geological maps ............................................. 14 Figure 4: Slope and Aspect data for the Cedar Mountain Formation................................... 16 Figure 5: Simplified flowchart showing methodology .......................................................... 18 Figure 6: Differences of means between fossil localities and Cedar Mountain Formation (X1-X2) ....................................................................................................................... 20 Figure 7: Weighted suitability analysis results ...................................................................... 22 Figure 8: Photos of the ten test sites. Numbers correspond to those in Table 6 ................ 24 Figure 9: Number of cells assigned to each fossil potential value for the model ................. 26 Figure 10: Revised weighted suitability analysis results ....................................................... 28 Figure 11: Number of cells assigned to each fossil potential value for the revised model ................................................................................................................................. 29 Figure 12: Comparison of aspects between the entire Cedar Mountain Formation and BYU fossil localities .................................................................................................. 32 Figure 13: Comparison of slopes between the entire Cedar Mountain Formation and BYU fossil localities .......................................................................................................... 34 Figure 14: Refined model results .......................................................................................... 35 Figure 15: Detailed comparison of model versions .............................................................. 36 Figure 16: Detailed comparison of small and large scale maps ............................................ 38 Figure 17: Detailed comparison of geologic maps in the area surrounding the Dalton Wells Dinosaur Quarry ....................................................................................................... 40 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Summary of Landsat OLI/TIRS bands (adapted from Irons et al. 2012) .................. 13 Table 2: Summary of Geologic Maps used in this study ....................................................... 15 Table 3: Summary of Landsat OLI/TIRS spectral reflectance values for BYU fossil localities ................................................................................................................................. 20 Table 4: Summary of Landsat OLI/TIRS spectral reflectance values for the Cedar Mountain Fm ............................................................................................................................ 20 Table 5: Reclassified values for OLI/TIRS bands used in weighted suitability analysis ......... 21 Table 6: Suitability analysis weights for model ..................................................................... 21 Table 7: Summary of field test results