CTM2005-Alberta-Rele

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CTM2005-Alberta-Rele Canada This Month Public Opinion Research Release Date: May 07, 2020 Alberta Politics Field Dates: May 01, 2020 to May 05, 2020 STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL 2 Alberta Politics in the time of COVID-19 The COVID-19 outbreak has set off a series of changes in the Canadian political landscape. In Alberta, approval of the government’s handling of the outbreak has declined since the crisis began – and lags other provinces – but remains high and positive nonetheless, with most Albertans approving of his handling. This has also positively impacted general satisfaction with the government and Kenney’s personal favourability, while the UCP continues to hold a large lead in vote intention. Today, INNOVATIVE is releasing results from our May 2020 Canada This Month survey. This online survey was in field from May 1st to May 5th with a weighted sample size of 300 Alberta residents. Detailed methodology is provided in the appendix. This report covers key results on how those from Alberta are rating their government’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak and the impacts that is having on more general government approval and provincial vote choice. 3 Most Albertans approve of the way the provincial government has handled the outbreak; though less than in other provinces STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL COVID-19 Handling: Just over half (54%) say they approve of the way 4 the Alberta government has handled the COVID-19 outbreak Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Alberta Government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19? [asked of all respondents; n=300] Approve: 54% 39% Disapprove: 23% 18% 15% 14% 9% 5% Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know disapprove Current data: May 2020 COVID-19 Handling Tracking: Approval of Alberta’s handling of COVID 5 (54%) up 10-pts since last week’s tracking Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Alberta Government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19? [asked of all respondents; n=300] 3% 5% 7% 9% 10% 14% 16% 18% 42% 39% 22% 15% Mar-20 Mar-20 (2) Apr-20 Apr-20 (2) Apr-20 (3) May-20 Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know Current data: May 2020 COVID-19 Handling Tracking: Starting in April, approval of Alberta’s 6 handling has lagged other provinces % who approve of government’s handling of COVID-19 outbreak: Alberta Vs. Provincial Average [asked of all respondents; n=1500] Provincial Average 69% 67% 69% 66% 68% 63% Alberta 64% 65% 59% 55% 54% 44% March 16-18 March 24-26 March 31-April 2 April 9-13 April 20-22 May 1-5 Current data: May 2020 7 Overall government satisfaction is on the rise, with a majority being satisfied STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL Alberta Mood: Just over half (53%) say they are satisfied with the 8 performance of the Alberta government generally Generally speaking, how satisfied are you with the performance of the PROVINCIAL government in Alberta? Would you say you are...? [asked of all respondents; n=300] Satisfied: 53% 40% Dissatisfied: 42% 22% 20% 13% 4% Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know Current data: May 2020 Current 2020 Maydata: 4 Tracking: Mood Alberta 13% 25% 18% 44% - pts directionally month directionally pts Aug-16 n=300] respondents; all of [asked in government the PROVINCIAL of performance with the you are satisfied speaking, how Generally Sep-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 May-17 Very satisfied Very Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Somewhat satisfied Somewhat Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 up (53%) government theAB with Satisfaction - to May-18 Jun-18 - month Jul-18 Somewhat dissatisfied Somewhat Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 April 2019 2019 ElectionApril Feb-19 Very dissatisfied Very Mar-19 Alberta Apr-19 Apr-19 (2) ? Would you say you are...? you say you ? Would Jun-19 Jul-19 Don't know Don't Sep-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 13% 40% 22% 20% 4% 9 10 While most have read, seen, or heard something about Kenney, Albertans are split on whether it left them more or less favourable of him STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL Alberta Read, Seen, Heard: Over 3-in-5 (64%) say they have read, 11 seen, or heard about Kenney, but favourability is split (+1% NET) Have you read, seen or heard anything about Jason Kenney in the last Did what you read, see or hear leave you feeling a lot more favourable, few days? somewhat more favourable, somewhat less favourable or a lot less [Asked of those who have RSH; n=300] favourable towards Jason Kenney, or did it make no difference? [Asked of those who have RSH; n=193] 64% A lot more favourable 13% Somewhat more favourable 21% 36% Made no difference 33% Somewhat less favourable 16% A lot less favourable 17% No Yes Current data: May 2020 Current 2020 Maydata: Note: Kenney (64%) is 4 is (64%) down Kenney Tracking: Heard Seen, Read, 49% 51% Don't shown.notknow [asked of all respondents; n=300] respondents; all of [asked about anything heard orseen read, you Have Aug-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Kenney Jason - Mar-18 month pts Apr-18 May-18 Those who say they have RSH about RSH have they Those whosay in the last few days? few the last in Jun-18 Jul-18 Yes Aug-18 Sep-18 - to Oct-18 No - Nov-18 month Dec-18 Jan-19 April 2019 2019 ElectionApril Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 (2) Jun-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 36% 64% 12 Alberta Read, Seen, Heard, Impact Tracking: Impact amongst those 13 who say they RSH something has not seen a bump during COVID-19 Did what you read, see or hear leave you feeling a lot more favourable, somewhat more favourable, somewhat less favourable or a lot less favourable towards Jason Kenney, or did it make no difference? [asked of those who have RSH; n=193] April 2019 Election 17% 46% 16% 33% 15% 22% 21% 8% 10% 13% Jul-18 Jul-19 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Oct-17 Oct-18 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Feb-20 Sep-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Sep-18 Feb-19 Sep-19 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Nov-18 Nov-19 Mar-19 Mar-18 Mar-20 May-17 May-18 May-20 Apr-19 (2) A lot more favourable Somewhat more favourable Made no difference Somewhat less favourable A lot less favourable Note: Don't know not shown. Current data: May 2020 14 We group individuals into segments based on key political and economic values and attitudes We use these segments throughout the remainder of the report to analyze vote leadership results. STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL Core Political Values: Close to half (44%) say the government too 15 often listens to experts instead of common sense Now we would like to ask a few questions about basic values and Is the main role of government to…? society...When governments make major decisions concerning spending [asked of all respondents; n=300] on programs and services, do you think they should be basing their decisions mainly on…? [asked of all respondents; n=300] To create equal opportunity so that everyone can compete on their own to be the best they 62% Their ability to afford the programs and 35% can be services To redistribute wealth so that the poor and The public's need for the programs and 54% disadvantaged have more than they would if 29% services left on their own Don't know 11% Don't know 9% Which of the following statements comes closest to your view? When it comes to government decision making, which of the following [asked of all respondents; n=300] statements is closest to your view? [asked of all respondents; n=300] The profit system brings out the worst in 40% Too often the government listens to experts instead human nature. 44% of common sense. The profit system teaches people the 49% Provincial issues are complicated so government value of hard work and success. 39% should listen to experts when it comes to policy. Don't know 11% Don't Know 18% Current data: May 2020 Value Clusters: A plurality (25%) are ‘Business Liberals’ or ‘Core Left’ 16 (21%) Value Clusters: Clusters are based on 4 basic values: equal opportunity versus redistribution; trust in the profit system; whether spending should be based on ability to afford or public need; and whether government should listen to experts or common sense. [asked of all respondents; n=300] Deferential Conservatives, Core Left, 21% 11% Populist Conservatives, 14% Thrifty Moderates, 15% Business Liberals, 25% Left Liberals, 14% Current data: May 2020 Defining Value Clusters: 6 value clusters are defined by 4 key political 17 values Core Political Values by Value Clusters Deferential Populist Business Thrifty Column % Left Liberals Core Left Conservatives Conservatives Liberals Moderates Governments should base Ability to afford 93% 88% 0% 0% 79% 0% decisions on... Public Need 0% 0% 92% 88% 0% 93% Is the main role of Create equal Opportunity 87% 100% 80% 93% 40% 0% government to .? Redistribute wealth 4% 0% 15% 0% 31% 94% When it comes to government Rely on common sense 0% 100% 40% 42% 44% 34% decision making..
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