Journal of Geography, Environment and Earth Science International 3(3): 1-14, 2015; Article no.JGEESI.19016

SCIENCEDOMAIN international

www.sciencedomain.org

Weather Forecasting: Traditional Knowledge of the People of Himalaya

Piyoosh Rautela1* and Bhavna Karki1

1Department of Disaster Management, Disaster Mitigation and Management Centre, Uttarakhand Secretariat, Rajpur Road, – 248 001, Uttarakhand, .

Authors’ contributions

This work was carried out in collaboration between both authors. Both authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Article Information

DOI: 10.9734/JGEESI/2015/19016 Editor(s): (1) Prof. Anthony R. Lupo, Department of Soil, Environmental, and Atmospheric Science, University of Missouri, Columbia, USA. Reviewers: (1) Anonymous, Kenya. (2) Anonymous, Ioannina University, Greece. (3) Hongli Wang, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA. (4) Anonymous, Argentine Institute Snow Research and Glaciology, Argentina. Complete Peer review History: http://sciencedomain.org/review-history/10542

Received 21st May 2015 Original Research Article Accepted 15th July 2015 Published 14th August 2015

ABSTRACT

Aims: The objective of this study is to highlight and document indigenous weather forecasting knowledge of the people of Higher Himalaya in Uttarakhand so that the same could be improvised and used effectively for disaster risk reduction in remote and inaccessible areas. Study Design: The study is based on interactions with the community members in identified habitations of the four valleys selected for this research in Uttarakhand Himalaya. Place and Duration of Study: Four valleys in the state of Uttarakhand, India are taken up for the study; Johar, Byans and Niti valleys together with upper reaches of Bhagirathi valley. The data is collected between June 2012 and January 2015 through fieldwork carried out in the area. Methodology: The present study is based on the response of 871 persons of the selected 73 Higher Himalayan villages of Uttarakhand, recorded using a specially designed semi-structured questionnaire. Besides this, perception of the people is also gathered through focused group discussions, in-depth interviews and key informant interviews. Special care is taken to select elderly people for response as they have memories of longer time span and 50 percent of the respondents are more than 50 years in age. Special care is also taken to ensure gender balance. ______

*Corresponding author: Email: [email protected], [email protected];

Rautela and Karki; JGEESI, 3(3): 1-14, 2015; Article no.JGEESI.19016

Conclusion: Traditional weather forecasting is used by the people of the study area for local level decision making in pursuits related to travel and agriculture as also for capturing timely information related to possible hazardous events. It is perceived that the traditional knowledge of the people is based upon uniformity of weather pattern that has lately been disturbed by climate change. People are therefore finding it increasingly difficult to use this knowledge effectively. The elderly persons however have faith in this knowledge. Backed with their experience they are able to improvise and include more reliable indicators for weather prediction. Formal recognition is however a must for these practices to be better utilized by the masses as also for planning process. Integrating this knowledge with the modern science can help in better understanding of various climate related parameters and in managing climate risk.

Keywords: Himalaya; weather forecasting; climate change; traditional knowledge; coping mechanisms; early warning.

1. INTRODUCTION interspersed with abrupt changes such as rapid cooling, warming, wetting and drying due to the Weather forecasting, as understood today, forcing of earth systems across thresholds [7]. relates to capability of assessing weather Adverse effects of climate change are conditions in advance. This is done presently by threatening to undo decades of development analyzing huge volume of meteorological data efforts and negatively impact agriculture, health, collected from across the globe on real time settlements, and infrastructure in developing basis and integrating the same with numerical countries [8,9,10]. Changes in some types of weather prediction models using high end extreme events are already being observed, for computing machines. Though not equipped with example, increase in frequency and intensity of scientific instrumentation and analytical tools and heat wave and heavy precipitation events [11]. In techniques the local communities across the longer term, global warming could lead to a rise globe have developed the art of assessing in the snowline and disappearance of many weather conditions using their experience, glaciers causing serious impacts on the observation and accumulated knowledge of populations relying on the seven main rivers in generations. It is largely based on keen Asia that are fed by melt water from the observation of various faunal, floral and other . Throughout Asia one billion people physical changes in their surroundings that could thus face water shortage leading to precede or accompany meteorological drought and land degradation by the 2050s phenomenon of larger interest. Weather [4,12]. forecasting ensured success of farming operations, with the exception of intermittent From the very beginning weather conditions had disasters [1]. a major influence on life and life support strategy of the people of the study area. This mostly Climate change is reportedly increasing level of revolved around trade, pastoralism and limited weather extremes and variability, and high agriculture. Over the course of history and up to altitude ecosystems are considered particularly this day traditional local communities continue to sensitive to these [2]. Scientific evidence on rely heavily on their indigenous knowledge variability of events such as droughts and floods systems for dealing with natural hazards. These suggests that climatic oscillations have occurred communities, particularly those living in hazard in the past and may occur in future, potentially prone areas, have collectively generated a vast with large impacts on human society, economy body of knowledge on disaster prevention and and ecosystems [3]. The fragile landscapes of mitigation, early warning, preparedness, the Himalayan region are highly susceptible to response and post - disaster recovery. This natural hazards, leading to ongoing concern knowledge is acquired through observation and about current and future climate change impacts study, and is often based on cumulative in the region [4]. Climate change concerns in the experience handed down from generation to Himalayas are multifaceted and encompass generation [13]. Local communities have always floods, droughts, landslides [5], human health, aimed to adapt to variations in their climate. To biodiversity, endangered species, agriculture, do so, they make preparations based on their livelihood, and food security [6]. There is resources and their knowledge accumulated evidence to show that slow and gradual changes through experience of past weather patterns [14]. in climate over the earth's history have been

2

Rautela and Karki; JGEESI, 3(3): 1-14, 2015; Article no.JGEESI.19016

The people of the study area were traditionally Roncoli and others [17] through a study in traders who used to venture on long and difficult Burkina Faso have demonstrated that indigenous journeys to traversing high altitude passes knowledge on rainfall forecasting can form an of Himalaya for furthering their trading interests. important part of the scientific forecasts. It is They thus used to traverse all through the urged that understanding of local communities’ Himalayan mountain range where vagaries of perception to predict rainfall variability can add fast changing weather are still a major challenge. value to the scientific weather forecasts. Despite Judiciousness of the decision related to timing of modern technological tools for predicting weather movement was thus vital for the success of these conditions for the next day or over the season in trading ventures. a specific location, traditional weather lore still remains an important source of local forecasting in many areas [18]. Reference of weather These journeys were physically demanding and forecasting is also available in ancient Indian only the fit ones could undertake these. Women, texts that rely on observational methods to children and elderly, together with ill, weak and assess atmospheric changes. These include challenged persons, therefore stayed back in cloud forms (sky features) and biological and their summer homes in the higher reaches where phenological indicators [18]. they engaged in cultivation of some niche crops. Survival during the trading journeys was largely The traditional weather forecasting knowledge of dependent on judiciousness of the assessment the people has the potential of being utilized for of weather conditions and therefore people of the making modern weather related predictions more area developed an elaborate system of weather robust and effective but if not documented this forecasting that was used for deciding timing of rich knowledge of the people is likely to be lost initiating the travel and halting at safe places on forever. This study is thus designed to highlight the way. The precision of forecasting a fair or and document indigenous weather forecasting bad weather was important for them as a wrong knowledge of the people. The focus of the decision could as well wipe out the trading research is on recording the observations of the expedition all together. Decisions related to travel community members regarding changes in outer plan and route were thus taken after thorough environment and on getting into collective review of various signs of nature. The tradition experiences rather than on cross sectional thus evolved out of the instinct of these people to comparative analysis of the impact of climate survive in their trade related journeys. These change. people used to stay in Tibet from July to October, returning in November to do further business in 2. THE STUDY AREA the lower valleys and plains of northern India [15]. They travelled with goods, halting at various Johar, Byans and Niti valleys together with upper places and moving on at appropriate time. The reaches of Bhagirathi valley are taken up for the traditional weather forecasting knowledge was in present study (Fig. 1). 73 villages of these the form of bio - indicators and other physical valleys are covered by this study; 26 in the upper factors that include wind direction, time of the reaches of Bhagirathi river valley (Fig. 2), 16 in year, colour of sky and position of stars. Niti valley (Fig. 3), 24 in Johar valley and 7 in Byans valley (Fig. 4).

Weather related knowledge is at the same time Except for Bhagirathi valley were the selected highly useful for farmers and shepherds. villages are located in the altitudinal rage of 750 Shepherds depend on livestock for their to 2620 meters above mean sea level (msl), all sustenance and count on their knowledge to other villages are located between 2200 and decide the timing of movement and halt of the 3600 meters above msl. large herds during summers so as to take advantage of diverse grazing resources. Success Bhotiya tribe constitutes majority population of of limited farming within short duration also the study area. Though agro – pastoralism is depends on timing of sowing, harvest and presently the major economic activity of the area storage that are also traditionally decided upon trans-Himalayan trade used to be traditional by the knowledge of weather conditions. Local pursuit of these people. For this they used to communities and farmers have developed a rich maintain large animal herds; particularly those of knowledge base of predicting weather events sheep and yak that were utilized for transporting based on observation of animals, plants, and various tradable commodities from terai, in the celestial bodies and others [16]. foothills of Himalaya that used to be their abode

3

Rautela and Karki; JGEESI, 3(3): 1-14, 2015; Article no.JGEESI.19016

during harsh winter months, to Tibet traversing trails (used in Hindu rituals), musk, drugs and high-altitude passes and rugged Himalayan parts of medicinal plants [20,21,22,23]. These terrain. tradable commodities essentially included products bartered by these people on way with Sugar, gur, misri, tobacco, spices, pulses, grain, local inhabitants. Local fairs of the region that coffee, vegetable oil, ghee and various coincided with the movement schedule of these miscellaneous consumable items constituted the migratory traders ensured that the local package carried across [19] and commodities producers fetch a fair deal. Besides ensuring imported from Tibet included god dust, shawl variety this at the same time infused new vigour wool (pashmina), sheep, goats, mules, ponies into the economy of this region. and horses, rugs, blankets, shawls, skins, yak

Fig. 1. Location of the four valleys in Fig. 2. Location of the villages covered under the Pithoragarh, Chamoli and Pithoragarh study in Bhagirathi valley of Uttarkashi district districts taken up under the present study

Fig. 3. Location of the villages covered Fig. 4. Location of the villages covered under under the study in Niti valley of Chamoli the study in Johar (Goriganga river) and Byans district (Kali river) valleys of

4

Rautela and Karki; JGEESI, 3(3): 1-14, 2015; Article no.JGEESI.19016

The people of the area traditionally crossed over November) and migrate to lower altitudes around to Tibet through a number of identified passes. November till April. For the people of Johar valley it was Gonkhal Dhar, a ridge defining the eastern border of 3. METHODOLOGY Milam village, where the traders were given a hearty send-off and accorded a warm welcome Purposive sampling is used for the selection of on their return [24]. From there route to Tibet was geographical area and villages taken up under through Untadhura pass (5377 meters) that could the present study. This method has been used in be crossed between June and October [25]. the present qualitative research for maximizing People of Byans valley carried out trade through relevant representation based on prior Lipulekh pass following the Kali valley and the knowledge. This is based on both primary and importance of this route can well be assessed secondary sources of information as also from the fact that Baz bahadur Chand, the king of extensive desk review undertaken before Kumaun, personally supervised construction of designing the research process and instruments. this route [24]. En route Garbyang used to be a major trading destination and the importance of This study is based on the response of the the same can well be assessed from ornate people of the selected villages recorded using a multistoreyed buildings of the area [26]. In the specially designed semi-structured Garhwal region trans - border trade was carried questionnaire. Focused group discussions out through Niti, Mana [27] and the Nilang (FGD), in-depth interviews (IDI) and key passes. The way to Niti pass was along informant interviews (KII) were also done to Dhauliganga, Mana pass was through the higher recording perception of 871 persons on climate reaches of the Alaknanda beyond Badrinath and change, its impact and traditional methods of Nilang pass was accessed through narrow gorge weather forecasting. Elderly people are specially of Jadganga beyond Harsil. selected for the study as they have memories of longer time span.

For centuries these valleys have formed Data collection was difficult because people are important sections of trade routes connecting the little hesitant in giving the details to outsiders. Indian subcontinent with Tibet and Major portion of the fieldwork had thus to be [28]. The direct trade and transport across the devoted towards confidence building with local high altitude passes was operated by different communities. There is at the same time lack of Bhotiya groups, who for a number of reasons well – documented information or secondary data were able to maintain monopoly over this trade on this subject from the area. Data collected is from which they could accumulate substantial mainly qualitative and based on the percentages. wealth [20,29,30]. Attempt has been made to assess the perception of the community for forecasting relevant After the Sino-Indian war of 1962 the border was weather events. The focus was on collecting and closed and this flourishing traditional commerce documenting the information from the community was suddenly disrupted. This forced the people and cross checking and analysing the same with to pay attention towards settled agriculture for various secondary sources. supplementing their income. Lipulekh pass of the The word forecast as used in the study refers to study area is first Indian border post to be short – term assessment of weather conditions; opened for trade with China in 1992. This was up to one week. Traditional knowledge is followed by the opening of Shipki La in Himachal explained as the knowledge of a group or a Pradesh in 1994 and Nathu La in Sikkim in 2006 community from a particular area, based on their [31]. Presently, Lipulekh pass is open for cross- environmental understanding, interacting with border trade every year from June through nature and experiences within their area [ 33]. September and people of the area still engage in 32, traditional cross border trade. Their ethnic As defined by De Boef and others [33] the term characteristics and linguistic skills together with traditional knowledge is used here as the traditional acumen to traverse difficult terrain that knowledge of the people of the study area based is still largely traversed on foot help them on their interactions and experiences within that dominate this trade. Most people of the study area, their traditions, and their incorporation of area still resort to seasonal migration and live at knowledge emanating from elsewhere into their high altitude in summer (May - June to October - production and economic systems [33].

5

Rautela and Karki; JGEESI, 3(3): 1-14, 2015; Article no.JGEESI.19016

4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION spring. Emergence and growth of new leaves indicates that the temperature is Responses of 871 persons from 73 villages of increasing and winter season is drawing to the four identified valleys are recorded using a an end. specially designed semi-structured questionnaire  Abundant blossoming of peach, apricot (Table 1). Besides this a total of 12 FGDs, 24 and other trees is considered an indicator IDIs and 30 KIIs are also conducted. Information of good rainy season. contained in the folklores, sayings, folksongs,  Flourishing of mushrooms, both edible and folktales and various religio-magical rites and wild, is considered to indicate imminent traditional practices of the masses is at the same rain as the same is associated with high time analysed for better understanding of their humidity. efficacy in effective resource management.  Physical state and flexibility of pine (Pinus

Table 1. Details of respondents (n = 871) sp.) cones is traditionally utilized by the people of the study area for assessing Valley Villages Number of respondents humidity in the atmosphere and predicting covered Total Male Female rainfall. The pine cones generally tend to Bhagirathi 26 312 134 178 open up and become stiff in dry weather Niti 16 205 141 64 but in the presence of high humidity these Johar 24 201 67 134 become flexible and often regain their Byans 7 153 59 94 original shape. It is this variation in the Total 73 871 401 470 physical state of pine cones with changing Gender balance is adhered to in the study and humidity that is utilized for assessing 54 percent of the respondents are females. As humidity content in the air and predicting for the age profile almost half of the respondents rainfall. (49 percent) are more than 50 years old (Fig. 5).  Flowers of certain lower plants open up in fine weather. In case the petals of these plants remain closed it is considered to indicate rain and bad weather.  Appearance of young leaves and grass in the mountains, particularly in the pastures, is considered to indicate good rains.  Dropping of fruits or drying of flowers before maturity is considered to indicate forthcoming very dry season.

4.2 Cloud Colour and Pattern

 Dark clouds are considered to indicate Fig. 5. Age group of the repondents in the heavy rainfall within a few hours. four valleys  Dark clouds approaching from north are considered to bring rain. The forecast and bio- indictors used by people  Red / pink clouds in the morning are for weather forecasting in the study area are considered to indicate possibility of rain observed to be based on their long-standing familiarity with seasonal patterns of precipitation, where as red / pink clouds in the evening are considered to indicate that there would temperature, wind and cloud pattern, position of stars, behaviour of animals and birds and other be no rain. similar indicators and observations. These are  Dark clouds preceding strong winds are grouped together based upon the parameters considered to indicate thunderstorm in a used for weather forecasting. The same are few hours. summarised in Table 2.  Wind getting fast with a particular colour and movement pattern of clouds is 4.1 Floral Indicators considered to indicate rain.

 Blossoming peach (Prunus persica), 4.3 Moisture apricot (Prunus armeniaca), fig (Ficus sp.) or budding in other trees in the surrounding  In villages elderly farmers usually carry a farms is considered to indicate onset of small bag of tambaku (tobacco) for hukka

6

Rautela and Karki; JGEESI, 3(3): 1-14, 2015; Article no.JGEESI.19016

(traditional smoking pipe). Moisture over its distance from sun or moon. If the the hukka is considered to indicate rain. distance is more then it is called halo  Moisture on dried chillies or tobacco leaves phenomenon, which is caused by a layer is considered to indicte high humidity and of thin veil of cirrus clouds i.e. non rain imminent rain. bearing clouds. But if the distance is less, it is called corona phenomena produced by 4.4 Other Abiotic Indicators somewhat dense clouds that may cause rainfall. The accuracy of this indigenous  Red sky in the morning is considered to observation is as high as 50 per cent [34]. indicte rain, while red sky in the evening is considered to indicte that there would be 4.6 Star Constellation no rain.  Shadow of the rainbow near the source of  Pattern of stars and movement of stars water is considered to indicte clear from west to east at night under clear skies weather. is considered to indicate onset of rainfall in  Soil moisture is assessed by people by 2 - 3 days and similar patterns are also physically crumbling the soil with hand and used to predict cessation of rainfall. observing its structure and dryness. This is  The position of the starts is traditionally done before deciding the timing of sowing used to sense direction and time and if all and seed or seedling is introduced only stars are out at night it is considered to when soil condition is observed to be indicate a nice day tomorrow. favourable. Otherwise farmers wait for 4.7 Human Response rainfall to occur.  To check soil moisture people turn over  In the study area people with arthritis are stones near river or hill side or under the also observed to predict weather, based on shade of trees. Moist soil under the stone the level of their joint pain. If there is pain during spring and summer season is in the joints it is considered to indicate considered to indicate that the summer imminent rain. This is assessed to be rain is approaching. associated with the fact that certain  Bubbles in water during light rain are weather related factors can increase pain. considered to indicate more rain. In case the bubbles appear during morning 4.8 Insect Related Indicators showers it is considered to indicate that the rain would last the whole day.  Appearance of ants and rapidly increasing  If the water falls down while taking out for size of anthills, which are moist, are washing hands and legs it is considered to considered to indicate good rains. indicate rain. Variations in insect population do exist throughout the year. Appearance of ants 4.5 Spectrum/halo around the Sun and and the mushrooming of anthills imply that the Moon the daily temperatures are warm enough for the ants to come out from hibernation  A ring around the moon and sun caused by and roam around in / on the soil. light shining through sheet like high level  Appearance of ants and increase in the clouds is considered to indicate rainfall size of anthills is also considered to within next two to three days. The indicate warming of weather and based on description of the clouds matches with this observation people start to sow crops cirrostratus clouds that consist of ice that are sensitive to low temperatures. crystals and are associated with warm  If ants come out in large numbers and fronts and high moisture content. change place, it is considered to indicate  If the spectrum around the sun has a large rains. diameter then rainfall is considered to be  Winged termites coming out of the soil assured. All the photometers are a after rainfall is considered to indicate fair luminous phenomenon produced by the weather for some time. reflection, refraction, diffraction or  Appearance of winged termites after a dry interference of light from sun or moon. The spell of some days is considered to visible spectrum of light around sun or indicate rains. moon is called halo or carona according to

7

Rautela and Karki; JGEESI, 3(3): 1-14, 2015; Article no.JGEESI.19016

 If the spiders leave their webs, this is  Loud chirping of birds in group and taking considered to indicate rains. Spiders dip in water is considered to indicate rain. generally abandon their web and seek  Particular sound of the birds together with shelter with drop in atmospheric pressure atmosphere becoming unusually calm is and this observation is utilized by the considered to indicate rains. people for predicting rains.  Sound of crickets calling or chirping 4.10 Animal Behaviour throughout the night is considered to indicate change in weather.  Grazing cows / yaks, juppu in local  When the bees come out of their hives it is parlance, returning home early is considered a sign of clear weather. considered to indicate rains or bad  Sight of bees moving untimely and in large weather. numbers towards their hives is considered  Well-fed cows / calves jumping in herd on to indicate bad weather and rain. their way home from mountain pastures is considered to indicate rains or bad 4.9 Bird Related Indicators weather.  Grazing cows returning home early with  Flock of small birds like common swallows raised tails is considered to indicate rains. (Hirundo rustica) together with proceeding  Consumption of excess fodder by cattle is black clouds is considered to indicate rain. considered to indicate harsh weather or  Birds taking dip in water is considered to dry conditions. indicate imminent rain.  Croaking of frogs during afternoon is  Sight of red billed chough (Pyrrhocorax considered to indicate imminent rain during pyrrhocorax) is considered to indicate that all seasons. the higher reaches have experienced snow  Sight of domestic hen / cocks searching and winter conditions are setting in. food during rain is considered to indicate  Crow spreading and moving its wings near that the rain would continue. But if these river or source of water is considered to do not search for food during rain it is indicate dry spell. considered to indicate that the rain would  Flocks of birds flying high in the sky is stop soon. considered to indicate fair weather. If the  If the goats do not graze it is considered to birds fly below their normal flight height this indicate snowfall. is considered to indicate rain or bad  If burrowing animals like rats come out of weather. Fall in air pressure due to bad their burrows and start to dig the ground it weather conditions causes discomfort in is considered to indicate some natural birds' ears and in order to alleviate it they calamity. fly at lower elevations. Increase in humidity, at times of bad or wet weather,  Weeping like sound of animals is draws insects to the surface and this is considered a bad omen and correlated another reason for insect-seeking birds to with natural calamities.

fly low. 4.11 Appearance of Reptiles  Flock of sparrows flying around the sky with scattered clouds is considered to  Sight of certain snakes moving down the indicate rain in the afternoon. mountain is considered to indicate good  Ground nesting bird species making their rains. Snakes generally come out of nest on higher ground is considered to hibernation and proceed to downhill areas indicate likely increase in water level of the in search for prey and mating partners so water body (river / stream). The red- as to reproduce in early summer season. wattled lapwing (Vanellus indicus) This is to ensure that the eggs are hatched generally lays eggs on bare ground and in time and baby snakes get enough time never constructs a nest. Laying of eggs by to fatten their bodies and prepare for cold the lapwing on high ground is considered season when they have to hibernate [35]. to indicate rise in water level of streams and rivers. 4.12 Earthquakes

 Migration and immigration of birds is  Although not falling in the category of considered an indicator changing season. weather forecasting, animals, birds and

8

Rautela and Karki; JGEESI, 3(3): 1-14, 2015; Article no.JGEESI.19016

insects are believed to sense the silence and stillness. This unusual calm is approaching earthquake waves well in considered to indicate earthquake activity. advance. This is believed to induce  Seconds before the earthquake it is abnormal behaviour in these and the same believed that the dogs start to howl and is considered an indicator of an imminent other animals too become agitated and earthquake. restless. After the earthquake has passed,  It is believed that a few minutes prior to the similar silence is repeated for a couple of earthquake, everything becomes minutes. completely still (no movement and no  Animals and birds have also been known sound) e.g. birds chirping and flying to leave an area or region up to 48 hours around. Insects cease to make noise and prior to a major earthquake, not returning stop to move around and there is total until well after the event [36].

Table 2. Traditional weather forecasting / prediction indicators

Indicator Observation Indicates Floral indicators Blossoming peach (Prunus persica), apricot Onset of spring (Prunus armeniaca), fig (Ficus sp.) Budding or emergence and growth of new Increasing temperature & end of leaves in other trees winter season Abundant blossoming of peach, apricot and Forthcoming good rainy season other trees Flourishing -both edible and wild mushrooms High humidity, imminent rain Opened and stiff pine cones Dry wind/ weather Flexible pine cone Good humidity content in the air and imminent rain Opening and closing of flowers of certain lower Open up - fine weather. plants Closed -indicate rain and bad weather. Appearance of young leaves and grass in the Forthcoming good rain mountains/pastures Dropping of fruits or drying of flowers before Forthcoming very dry season maturity Cloud colour and Dark clouds Heavy rainfall within a few hours pattern Dark clouds approaching from north Imminent rain

Red / pink clouds in the morning Possibility of rain Red / pink clouds in the evening No rain Dark clouds preceding strong winds Thunderstorm in a few hours Wind getting fast with a particular colour and Indicates rain movement pattern of clouds Moisture Moisture over the hukka (traditional smoking High humidity, imminent rain pipe) Moisture on dried chillies or tobacco leaves High humidity, imminent rain. Other abiotic Red sky in the morning Rain indicators Red sky in the evening No rain Shadow of the rainbow near the source of water Clear weather Soil easily crumbled with hand Dry condition Soil most or soft when crumbled with hand Good moisture content in soil Moist soil under the stones near river or hill Summer rain approaching side or under the shade of the tree during spring and summer season Bubbles in water during light rain More rain In case the bubbles appear during morning The rain would last the whole day showers If the water falls down while taking out for Imminent rain

9

Rautela and Karki; JGEESI, 3(3): 1-14, 2015; Article no.JGEESI.19016

Indicator Observation Indicates washing hands and legs Human Response If there is increased pain in the joints in patients Imminent rain of arthritis Spectrum/halo A ring around the moon and sun caused by light Rainfall within the next two to three around the sun and shining through sheet like high level clouds days the moon Spectrum around the sun has a larger diameter Assured rain Star constellation Pattern of stars and movement of stars from Onset of rainfall in 2 - 3 days west to east at night under clear skies All stars are out at night Clear weather next day and vice versa Insect related Appearance of ants and rapidly increasing size Indicate good rains indicators of anthills, which are moist, Appearance of ants and increase in the size of Increase in temperature anthills If ants come out in large numbers and change Indicate imminent rains place Winged termites coming out of the soil after Fair weather for some time. rainfall Appearance of winged termites after a dry spell Indicate rains of some days Spiders leaving their webs Indicate rains Sound of crickets calling or chirping throughout Change in weather the night When the bees come out of their hives Sign of clear weather Sight of bees moving untimely and in large Indicate bad weather and rain numbers towards their hives Bird related Flock of small birds like common swallows Indicate rain indicators (Hirundo rustica) together with proceeding black clouds Birds taking dip in water Imminent rain Sight of red billed chough (Pyrrhocorax The higher reaches have pyrrhocorax) experienced snow and winter conditions are setting in Crow spreading and moving its wings near river Indicate dry spell or source of water Flocks of birds flying high in the sky Fair weather Flocks of birds flying If they fly below their Rain or bad weather normal flight height Flock of sparrows flying around the sky with Rain in the afternoon. scattered clouds Ground nesting bird species making their nest Likely increase in water level of the on higher ground water body (river / stream) Laying of eggs by the species like The red- Rise in water level of streams and wattled lapwing (Vanellus indicus)on high rivers. ground Migration and immigration of birds Changing season Loud chirping of birds in group and taking dip in Rain water Particular sound of the birds together with Rain atmosphere becoming unusually calm Animal behaviour Grazing cows / yaks, juppu returning home Rains/snowfall or bad weather early Well-fed cows/calves jumping in herd on their Rains/snowfall or bad weather way home from mountain pastures Consumption of excess fodder by cattle Harsh weather or dry conditions. Grazing cows returning home early with raised Rain/snowfall tails Croaking of frogs during afternoon Imminent rain during all seasons

10

Rautela and Karki; JGEESI, 3(3): 1-14, 2015; Article no.JGEESI.19016

Indicator Observation Indicates Sight of domestic hen/cocks searching food Rain would continue and vice versa during rain If the goats do not graze Snowfall If burrowing animals like rats come out of their Some natural calamity like burrows and start to dig the ground earthquake Weeping like sound of animals Bad omen and correlated with natural calamities Abnormal behaviour Everything becomes completely still (no Earthquake of animals movement and no sound) e.g.  Birds chirping and flying around  Insects cease to make noise and stop to move around and there is total silence and stillness.  Dogs start to howl and other animals too become agitated and restless. Appearance of Sight of certain snakes moving down the Good rain reptiles mountain

5. DISCUSSION predictions over large geographical areas. Remoteness of the places also hinders the Traditional weather forecasting refers to the use accessibility of the people to scientific weather of various indicators for assessing weather forecasts through television, newspapers or conditions. The mechanisms and indicators used radio. for forecasting however differ across communities, cultural backgrounds and This is important because before the onslaught environments. In South Africa and Western of modern scientific methods for weather Kenya, inhabitants use birds, toads, and white forecasting and climate prediction, farming and ants to predict the summer season and onset of other livelihood pursuits were sustained by this rains. Based on their observation they at the traditional knowledge. Traditional knowledge can same time can predict temperature variation in thus be used in conjunction with scientific the range of 18°C to 26°C [37,38]. In the weather forecasting information from northeastern Brazil appearance of crickets is meteorological department specially to improve used while in Tanzania forecast is made on the the timing of agro-horticultural activities and for basis of behavioral patterns of birds and disaster risk reduction. mammals. Activities of arthropods, such as fleas, cockroaches, houseflies, spiders and many The challenges for the integration of this others are considered to indicate arrival of the traditional knowledge with mainstream science summer season in Japan [39,40]. Similar include the fact that observed environmental indicators and forecasting methods are observed indicators lack sufficient scientific data for all over the world. validation. The knowledge is based on cultural belief system of the people and often varies with The main advantage of traditional weather different cultures and there is still no formal forecast is its simplicity and timeliness; a person intergenerational transfer of knowledge amongst can make an independent observation without the communities. use of complicated instruments and make use of the information when needed without resorting to The indicators are based on ecological complex analysis of the collected information. interactions and response of the indicator There is no need for consultation with experts species, which is being altered by increasing and in fact the indicators observed by people in variability in climate thus making these their immediate environment provide more predictions increasingly less reliable. accurate information than forecasts interpolated from data of the weather stations located at For possible integration of scientific weather distant places. This holds good for remote and forecasting and traditional knowledge there is inaccessible terrains such as that of Uttarakhand need for extended research to correlate local where most meteorological observatories are indicators used for weather prediction with restricted to district headquarters and the data meteorological parameters. Agricultural decisions from the same is extrapolated for making like sowing, planting, harvesting is still made

11

Rautela and Karki; JGEESI, 3(3): 1-14, 2015; Article no.JGEESI.19016

according to traditional knowledge and ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS understanding of local environmental conditions. Understanding peoples’ perceptions of weather Partial financial support for the study from and climate is an important step in facilitating and Uttarakhand Council for Science and promoting research on modern science – Technology, Government of Uttarakhand and powered traditional agro – meteorological Government of India – UNDP supported Climate knowledge. Change Project is gratefully acknowledged.

6. CONCLUSION COMPETING INTERESTS

Bereft of external interventions, the geo- Authors have declared that no competing environment around most local communities interests exist. behaved as a closed system with little faunal and floral changes. Moreover there were little REFERENCES variations in the weather pattern. Though based upon intricate observation and record keeping of 1. Camberlin P. Rainfall anomalies in the generations, the likelihood of the predictions source of the Nile and their connection with being correct was at that time relatively high. the Indian Summer Monsoon. J. Clim. Changed ground realities and changes being 1997;10:1380-1392. introduced in weather conditions by climate 2. Patz JA, Campbell-Lendrum D, Holloway change are however making traditional weather T, Foley JA. Impact of Regional Climate forecasting tools increasingly unreliable. This is Change on Human Health, Nature. 2005; leading to mistrust amongst masses regarding 438(7066):310-317. the efficacy of traditional indicators. The elderly DOI:10.1038/nature04188 people however have faith in these and based 3. Fisher RJ. If rain doesn’t, come: An upon their experience they resort to the use of Anthropological study of Drought and multiple indicators for effective and reliable Human Ecology in Western Rajasthan, predictions. In the changed ground the traditional Sydney Studies, Manohar Publishers and art of weather forecasting is fast loosing ground Distributors; 1997. and being transmitted through oral tradition this 4. Cruz RV, Harasawa H, Lal M, Wu S, knowledge is sure to be lost soon as the Anokhin Y, Punsalmaa B, Honda Y, Safari community would be disinterested in putting in M, Li C, Huu Ninh N. Asia. Climate effort for transmitting irrelevant knowledge. This Change, Impacts, Adaptation and knowledge is however the product of in depth Vulnerability. In Parry ML, Canziani OF, observation and detailed documentation of Palutikof JP, Van Der Linden PJ, Hanson natural phenomenon over an appreciably long CE, (Eds.) Contribution of Working Group span of time and therefore detailed scientific II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the documentation of this knowledge together with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate standardization of indicators that are still Change. Cambridge University Press, pertinent is a must. This if done in right spirit and Cambridge, UK. 2007;469-506. results made available to the masses, could 5. Barnett TP, Adam JC, Lettenmaier DP. greatly empower local communities. Potential Impacts of a Warming Climate on Water Availability in Snow-dominated This effort, at the same time, would have the Regions. Nature. 2005;438:303-309. scope of initiating an all together new line of 6. Xu J, Grumbine RE, Shrestha A, Eriksson research wherein modern weather forecasting M, Yang X, Wang Y, Wilkes A. The Melting skills could be further sharpened though the Himalayas: Cascading Effects of Climate incorporation of real time inputs on the Change on Water, Biodiversity, and standardized indicators from the community. Livelihoods. Conservation Biology. 2009; 23:520-530. Besides empowering the local communities this 7. Bharara LP, Indigenous Knowledge-A effort would be beneficial for the state as also Coping Mechanism in Drought-prone others as improved weather forecasting would Areas, and Changes and Consequences of translate into better decision making, improved Accelerating Risks and Vulnerability to economic scenario and reduced loss from Desertification in Western Rajasthan, recurring disasters. Paper presented at Seminar on control of

12

Rautela and Karki; JGEESI, 3(3): 1-14, 2015; Article no.JGEESI.19016

Drought, Desertification and Famine, New 13. Grenier Louise, Working with Indigenous Delhi, Mimeo; 1986. Knowledge: A Guide for Researcher, 8. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate (International development Centre: Change) Climate change: The physical Ottawa); 1998. science basis. In: Averyt KB, Tignor M, 14. Climate change: Impacts, vulnerabilities Miller HL, Eds. Contribution of Working And adaptation In developing countries, Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report report by United Nations Framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Convention on Climate Change Change, Cambridge University Press, (UNFCCC); 2007. Cambridge; 2007. 15. Chakrabarti C. Bhotias of the Bhotia Available:http://www. ipcc.ch/ Mahal. The Himalayan Journal. 2006;62, publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_f 16. Acharya S. Presage biology: Lessons from ourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the nature in weather forecasting. Indian _physical _science_basis.htm Journal of Traditional Knowledge 2011;10: 9. Padgham J. Agricultural development 114-124. under a changing climate: Opportunities Available:http://nopr.niscair.res.in /handle / and challenges for adaptation, joint 1234 56 78 9 /11072 departmental discussion paper-issue 1, 17. Roncoli C, Ingram K, Kirshen P, Jost C. agriculture and rural development & (Burkina Faso: Integrating indigenous and environment departments. The World scientific rainfall forecasting, K Notes No. Bank, Washington DC; 2009. 39 Africa Region’s Knowledge and 10. Thornton PK, Jones PG, Ericksen PJ, Learning Center; 2001. Challinor AJ. Agriculture and food systems Available:http://www.worldbank.org/afr/ik/ik in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C + world. nt39.pdf Philosophical Transactions A. 2011;369: 18. Mishra SK, Dubey VK, Pandey RC. Rain 117-136. Forecasting in Indian Almanacs Available:http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.201 (Panchangs): A case for making Krishi- 0.0246 Panchang. Asian Agri-History. 2002;6(1): 11. Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, 29-42. Friedlingstein P, Gaye AT, Gregory JM, 19. Arpi C. Border Trade: Reopening the Tibet Kitoh A, Knutti R, Murphy J M,Noda A, Border; 2012. Raper SCB, Watterson IG, Weaver AJ, Available:http://www.claudearpi.net/mainte Zhao ZC. Global Climate Projections. In: nance/ uploaded_pics/Border_Trade.pdf Climate Change 2007: The Physical 20. Brown CW. The Goat is Mine, the Load is Science Basis. Contribution of Working Yours: Morphogenesis of 'Bhotiya-Shauka', Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report U.P., India. Lund Studies in Social of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Anthropology 1. Lund: University of Lund, Change [Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Department of Social Anthropology; 1984. Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K B, Tignor M 21. Dangwal DD. The Lost Mobility: and Miller H L (eds)]. Cambridge Pastoralism and Modernity in Uttarakhand University Press. Cambridge, United Himalaya (India). In: Nomadic Peoples. Kingdom and New York, NY, USA; 2007. 2009;13(2):84-101. 12. Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, 22. Pant SD. The social economy of the Chen A, Gao X, Held I, Jones R, Kolli R K, Himalayans. Based on a survey in the Kwon WT, Laprise R, Magaña Rueda V, Kumaon Himalayas. London: Geogre Allen Mearns L, Menéndez CG, Räisänen J, and Unwin; 1935. Rinke A, Sarr A, Whetton P. Regional 23. Smyth E. Remembering Nain Climate Projections. In: Climate Change Singh. Originally published in: Proceedings 2007: The Physical Science Basis. of the Royal Geographical Society and Contribution of Working Group I to the Monthly Records of Geography, New Fourth Assessment Report of the Monthly Series. 1882;4:315-317. In: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Pathak, S. and Bhatt, U. (eds.): Asia Ki Change [Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Peeth Per. Pundit Nain Singh Rawat Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M [Pundit Nain Singh Rawat: Life, and Miller H L (eds)]. Cambridge Explorations and Writings of Pundit Nain University Press. Cambridge, United Singh Rawat; in Hindi]. Vol. 1. Nainital: Kingdom and New York, NY, USA; 2007. Pahar. 2006:161-164.

13

Rautela and Karki; JGEESI, 3(3): 1-14, 2015; Article no.JGEESI.19016

24. Atkinson ET. The Himalayan Gazetteer, Genetic diversity, farmer experimentation Cosmo Publication, Delhi; 1882. and crop research. London: Intermediate 25. Rawat BS. Travails of Border Trade - Technology Publications; 1993. Border Trade with Western Tibet- History 34. FAO, Chapter 8 - Weather forecasting; of Trade marts in Tibet-Conventions and 2010. (Retrieved February 20, 2015). Agreements Published 2009 Malla Johr Available:http://www.fao.org/docrep/x5672 Vikas Samiti, Munsayri, Pithoragarh; 2009. e/x5672e09.htm 26. Rautela P, Ground subsidence: a silent 35. Marais J. What’s That Snake? A Starter’s disaster in Himalaya, Disaster Prevention Guide to Snakes of Southern Africa; Struik and Management: An International Publishers: Cape Town, South Africa; Journal. 2005;14(3):395-406. 2008. 27. A`rpi C. A new India's Tibet Policy; 2012. 36. WEATHER - Nature's Forecasters - Available:http://claudearpi.blogspot.in/2012 Animals and Birds; 2011. (Retrieved /09/a-new--tibet-policy.html February 20; 2015). 28. Zurick D, Pacheco J. Illustrierter Atlas des Available:http://treechange.hubpages.com/ Himalaya. Zürich: AS Verlag; 2006. hub/WEATHER-Natures- Forecasters- 29. Gerwin M, Nüsser M. Diversity, Complexity Animals-and-Birds and Dynamics: Land Use Patterns in the 37. Merchant ME, Flanders RV, Williams RE. Central Himalayas of Kumaon, Northern Seasonal abundance and parasitism of India (= Colloquium Geographicum 31). house fly (Diptera: Muscidae) pupae in Sankt Augustin: Asgard-Verlag; 2008. enclosed, shallow-pit poultry houses in 30. Majumdar DN. (1949): The Social Indiana. Environ. Entomol. 1987;16:716- Economy of the Bhotiyas. In: Pangtey, K. 721. S. (ed.): Lonely Furrows of the Borderland. 38. Olbrich DL, King BH. Host and habitat use Second PAHAR. 2005;22:11. Nainital: by parasitoids (Hymenoptera PAHAR. Pteromalidae) of house fly and stable fly 31. Project Gutenberg Self Publishing Press, (Diptera Muscidae) pupae. Great Lakes Article Lipulekh Pass; 2015. Entomol. 2003;36:79-190. Available:http://self.gutenberg.org/articles/li 39. Dunn, R.R. Poetic entomology: Insects in pulekh_pass Japanese haiku. Am. Entomol. 2000;46: 32. Shumba O. Coping with Drought: Status of 70–72. Integrating Contemporary and Indigenous 40. Kihupi N, Kingamkono R, Dihenga H, Climate/Drought Forecasting in Communal Kingamkono M, Rwamugira W. Integrating Areas of Zimbabwe; Consultancy Report to Indigenous Knowledge and Climate the United Nations Development Program Forecasts in Tanzania. In Coping with Office to Combat Desertification and Climate Variability: The Use of Seasonal Drought; UNSO/UNDP/WMO: Harare, Climate Forecasts in Southern Africa; Zimbabwe; 1999. O’Brien K, Vogel C, Eds.; Ashgate 33. De Boef W, Amanor K, Wellard K, Publishing Ltd.: Hampshire, UK and Bebbington A. Cultivating knowledge: Burlington, VT, USA. 2003;155–169. ______© 2015 Rautela and Karki; This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Peer-review history:

The peer review history for this paper can be accessed here:

http://sciencedomain.org/review-history/10542

14