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Country Report Samoa September 2004 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St The Economist Building 60/F, Central Plaza London 111 West 57th Street 18 Harbour Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2585 3888 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.eiu.com Electronic delivery This publication can be viewed by subscribing online at www.store.eiu.com Reports are also available in various other electronic formats, such as CD-ROM, Lotus Notes, online databases and as direct feeds to corporate intranets. For further information, please contact your nearest Economist Intelligence Unit office Copyright © 2004 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author’s and the publisher’s ability. However, the Economist Intelligence Unit does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Patersons Dartford, Questor Trade Park, 151 Avery Way, Dartford, Kent DA1 1JS, UK. Samoa 1 Contents Samoa 3 Summary 4 Political structure 5 Economic structure 5 Annual indicators 6 Quarterly indicators 7 Outlook for 2004-05 8 The political scene 9 Economic policy 11 The domestic economy 11 Foreign trade and payments The region 13 Summary The region 14 Outlook for 2004-05 15 The political scene 16 Economic policy and the domestic economy List of figures 5 Samoa: foreign trade 5 Samoa: consumer prices 7 Samoa: gross domestic product 7 Samoa: consumer price inflation Country Report September 2004 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2004 2 Samoa Samoa September 2004 Summary Outlook for 2004-05 The strong and united Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP) government will face little challenge from parliamentary opposition, and Samoa will remain the most politically stable of the Pacific islands in 2004-05. Hurricane damage in January 2004 has dampened the economy’s growth prospects this year. However, the agricultural sector is slowly beginning to recover and growth in tourism and strong construction activity will support annual growth of around 2-3% in 2004-05. The political scene Samoan officials have been embarrassed by their failure to persuade most of the other island governments to back the country’s choice for the post of secretary-general of the ACP (Africa, Caribbean and Pacific) grouping. Immigration issues continue to dominate relations with New Zealand. Economic policy The finance minister has held talks with Virgin Blue, the Australia-based low- cost airline, about the possibility of a joint venture with the government- owned Polynesian Airlines. Visa rules have been amended to help to attract foreign investors. The domestic economy After a poor start to 2004, the number of overseas visitors has picked up in recent months, with arrivals for May 2004 up by 14% year on year. A quarantine centre for agricultural produce, funded by Australian aid, opened in August. Foreign trade and payments Export earnings slumped in the first quarter of 2004, as poor weather conditions caused the fish catch to plummet, but they recovered somewhat during the second quarter, thanks to stronger coconut-cream exports and a jump in the value of fresh fish exports. Editors: Kate Allard (editor); Graham Richardson (consulting editor) Editorial closing date: September 1st 2004 All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 E-mail: [email protected] Next report: Full schedule on www.eiu.com/schedule Country Report September 2004 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2004 Samoa 3 Political structure Official name Independent State of Samoa Form of state UK-style cabinet government The executive The prime minister, chosen by a majority in the Fono (parliament), selects 12 ministers to form a cabinet; cabinet decisions may be reviewed by the Executive Council, which consists of the cabinet and the head of state Head of state HH Malietoa Tanumafili II until his death, when a successor will be elected by the Fono for a five-year period National legislature Unicameral, 49-member Fono; 47 members are elected by all Samoans aged 21 or over to represent 41 constituencies. The remaining two members are elected from electoral rolls made up of non-Samoans; elections are held every five years Legal system System of lower courts leading to the Court of Appeal National elections March 2001; the next election is due by March 2006 National government The Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP), led by Tuila’epa Sa’ilele Malielegaoi, holds around 30 of the 49 seats in the Fono Main political parties Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP); Samoa Democratic United Party (SDUP) Prime minister, minister of foreign affairs & public service, immigration, police & prisons Tuila’epa Sa’ilele Malielegaoi Deputy prime minister & minister of finance Misa Telefoni Retzlaff Key ministers Agriculture, forests & fisheries Tuisugaletaua Sofara Aveau Commerce Industry and Labour Hans Joachim Keil Communications and information technology Palusalue Fa’apo Education, sport & culture Fiame Naomi Mata’afa Health Mulitalo Siafausa Justice Gaina Tino Natural resources and environment Tuala Sale Tagaloa Kerslake Police, prisons & fire service Ulu Vaomalo Kini Revenue Tofa Tuuu Anasii Leota Trade & industry Hans Joachim Keil Transport Palusalue Fa’apo II Women’s affairs, community & social developoment Tuala Ainiu Iuisitino Works, transport & infrastructure Faumuina Liuga Central Bank governor Papali’i Tommy Scanlan Country Report September 2004 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2004 4 Samoa Economic structure Annual indicators 1999a 2000a 2001a 2002a 2003b GDP at current prices (Tala m)c 698.9 774.8 849.7 890.4 n/a Real GDP growth (av; %)c 2.6 6.9 6.2 1.8 3.5 Consumer price inflation (av; %)c 0.3 0.9 3.8 8.1 4.0 Population (‘000)c 167.7 170.7 176.8 177.7 n/a Exports fob (US$ m)d 20.5 14.3 15.6 13.7 14.8a Imports cif (US$ m)d 115.1 106.6 130.5 112.9 135.7a Current-account balance (US$ m)c 5.3 10.3 -6.5 4.9 n/a Reserves excl gold (US$ m)d 68.20 63.66 56.64 62.49 83.91a Total external debt (US$ m)e 192.4 197.4 204.3 n/a n/a Debt-service ratio, paid (%)e 5.1 10.7 n/a n/a n/a Exchange rate (av; Tala:US$)d 3.012 3.271 3.472 3.375 2.998a a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Asian Development Bank. d IMF, International Financial Statistics. e World Bank, Global Development Finance. Origins of gross domestic product 2002a % of total Agriculture & fishing 14.3 Manufacturing 14.8 Electricity & water 3.0 Construction 5.5 Trade, transport & communications 36.1 Government & other services 26.3 Principal exports fob 2002a Tala m Principal imports 1996b % of total Fresh fish 29.0 Intermediate goods 50.5 Garments 4.5 Industrial supplies 26.4 Beer 3.9 Consumption goods 38.1 Coconut oil & cream 3.1 Food & beverages 26.0 Copra 1.0 Capital goods 11.4 Main destinations of exports fob 2002a % of total Main origins of imports 2002a % of total Australia 59.6 New Zealand 23.7 Indonesia 10.7 Fiji 20.3 US 9.0 Australia 15.7 American Samoa 2.3 Japan 12.5 Germany 2.3 US 4.3 a Asian Development Bank. b IMF, Samoa: Statistical Appendix. Country Report September 2004 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2004 Samoa 5 Quarterly indicators 2002 2003 2004 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr Prices Consumer prices (2000=100) 111.9 117.1 111.6 109.6 113.6 115.7 110.5 128.3 Consumer prices (% change, year on year) 9.7 8.1 5.9 1.3 1.6 -1.2 -1.0 17.1 Financial indicators Exchange rate Tala:US$ (av) 3.369 3.340 3.279 3.126 3.033 2.976 2.865 2.740 Exchange rate Tala:US$ (end-period) 3.285 3.352 3.216 3.109 2.970 2.947 2.778 2.759 Deposit rate (av; %) 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 Lending rate (av; %) 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 M1 (end-period; Tala m) 92.29 88.33 95.61 94.44 93.83 101.56 118.21 118.26 M1 (% change, year on year) 4.1 -0.4 10.1 15.5 14.8 15.0 23.6 25.2 M2 (end-period; Tala m) 319.22 328.20 335.99 341.80 340.43 356.29 386.37 386.13 M2 (% change, year on year) 3.6 5.6 9.2 11.1 6.6 8.6 15.0 13.0 Foreign trade (Tala ‘000) Exports foba 14,260 13,702 10,266 8,515 8,779 18,515 8,452 6,019 Imports cif -48,170 -116,793 -109,092 -92,426 -105,278 -100,912 -108,354 -102,232 Trade balance -33,910 -103,091 -98,826 -83,911 -96,499 -82,397 -99,902 -96,213 Foreign reserves (US$ m) Reserves excl gold (end-period) 64.64 64.85 62.49 59.79 63.23 68.84 83.91 85.29 a Includes re-exports.
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