THURSDAY, DECEMBER 31, 2015

HANSEN HOPING FOR FIRST IN JEROME REGAL RANSOM SUCCUMBS TO COLIC Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor--Kelli’s Ransom, by Red Ransom) was euthanized Tuesday after suffering complications from colic, Darley announced Wednesday. The nine-year- old stallion, a half-brother to Grade I winner Devil May Care (Malibu Moon), was a $675,000 Fasig-Tipton Florida graduate. Racing for Godolphin, he won the 2009 G2 UAE Derby and GII Super Regal Ransom | Darley photo Derby and he retired to Darley’s Jonabell Farm in Kentucky in 2012 with earnings of almost $1.9 million. Cont. p7 Kendall Hansen walking over for Derby with Hansen | Horsephotos by Jennie Rees One of racing’s most colorful owners hopes he has another TRAINER FORM: FACT OR FANCY? 3-year-old for the GI Kentucky Derby. But don’t look for Kendall Hansen to dye Let Me Go First (Paddy O’Prado)’s tail blue to James Willoughby uses the recently-slumping jumps match his silks, as the Newport, Kentucky pain doctor did with conditioner Paul Nicholls as an example to study champion Hansen () four years ago. trainer form and patterns. Not that Hansen second-guesses having Hansen’s flaxen tail Click or tap here to go straight to TDN Europe. stained University of Kentucky blue hours before the ethereal-looking gray finished second in Keeneland’s GI Toyota Blue Grass S.--a coloration ordered washed out under threat of a stewards’ scratch. (Hansen did run with a blue-tipped tail in Mountaineer’s GII West Virginia Derby, a fourth-place finish in the colt’s final race.) “That’s just for white horses,” Hansen said by phone when asked what’s in store for Let Me Go First. Hansen recently bought a half-interest in the bay gelding, who runs in Saturday’s GIII Jerome S. at Aqueduct. Obviously Let Me Go First, a good-looking winner of a Parx Racing maiden race in his third start Nov. 22 (video), has a long way to go before earning the right for his owner--also known for throwing toy Hansen horses to fans as well as for bringing showgirls in his stable colors to the Kentucky Derby--to be so flamboyant. Or at least for people to notice. “If I had American Pharoah, I’d have had belly dancers, for sure,” he said of the Triple Crown winner, now retired to Coolmore’s Ashford Stud, where Hansen stood in 2013 until being sold to the Korea Racing Authority. Cont. p3 2016 Fee: $5,000 payable out of proceeds or by 12/31/18

Undefeated 2YO

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Champion New Year’s Day was the Highweight on the Experimental Free Hcp., ahead of Eclipse Champion Shared Belief.

By Street Cry, the sire of over 100 Stakes Winners, he is a half-brother to Mohaymen, a $2.2 Million Co-Sales Topper and one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby (G1).

Mr. Prospector Machiavellian...... Coup de Folie (859) 255-8290 Street Cry...... Troy www.hillndalefarms.com Helen Street...... Waterway NEW YEAR’S DAY Dixieland Band Dixie Union...... She’s Tops Justwhistledixie...... Honour and Glory General Jeanne...... Ahpo Hel 1st Dam JUSTWHISTLEDIXIE, by Dixie Union. 5 wins at 2 and 3, $449,427 in US. Won Bonnie Miss S. [G2], Davona Dale S. [G2], Ruthless S. (AQU, $42,477), Love Affair S. (AQU, $41,850). 2nd Acorn S. [G1], Top Flight H. [G2]. Dam of 3 foals to race, all winners-- NEW YEAR’S DAY (c, by Street Cry (IRE)). Breeders’ Cup Juvenile [G1] Champion, Eclipse Finalist and highweight at 126lbs on the 2013 Experimental Free Handicap. MOHAYMEN (c, by Tapit). $2,200,000 Keeneland September Co-Sales Topper. Undefeated at 2 with 3 wins in 2015, $345,000 in US. Won Remsen S. [G2], Nashua S. [G2]. 2nd Dam GENERAL JEANNE, by Honour and Glory. 2 wins at 3, $72,797 in NA. Dam of 7 foals to race, all winners-- JUSTWHISTLEDIXIE (f, by Dixie Union). Black type winner, see above. CHACE CITY (c, by Carson City). 2 wins at 2, $152,965 in US. Winner at 2, in Can, 75,000 CAD. Won Saratoga Special Breeders’ Cup S. [G2], Victoria S. [L] (WO, $66,818). (Total: $219,783) Bakken (c, by Distorted Humor). 3 wins at 3 and 4, placed at 5, 2015, $223,900 in US. 2nd True North S. [G2]. Fashion’s Flight (f, by Dixie Union). Winner at 3, $76,558 in US. At 2 Sent to USA. Unplaced at 2, in Eng. (Total: $77,107)

LGB, LLC 2015 / Photos: Eclipse Sportswire / Adam Coglianese PRESIDENT & CO-PUBLISHER Barry Weisbord @barryweisbord [email protected] Hall of Fame jockey Chris SR. V.P. & CO-PUBLISHER McCarron visits Tiznow at Sue Finley @suefinley WinStar Farm. The two teamed [email protected] up to win the GI Breeders’ Cup V.P., INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS Gary King @garykingTDN Classic in 2000 and 2001. [email protected] Jon Siegel EDITORIAL [email protected] Editor-in-Chief: Jessica Martini @JessMartiniTDN Managing Editor: Alan Carasso @EquinealTDN Senior Editor: Steve Sherack @Steve SherackTDN Racing Editor: Brian DiDonato @BDiDonatoTDN Associate Editors: Justina Severni @JSeverniTDN Christie DeBernardis @CDeBernardisTDN WEEKEND STAKES ACTION 5-7 Assistant Editors: Pretty N Cool (Scat Daddy) faces seven rivals at Santa Anita Heather Anderson @HLAndersonTDN Ben Massam @BMassamTDN in Saturday’s GII Santa Ynez S., while on the same card GI Hollywood Derby winner Chiropractor (Kitten’s Joy) lines up ADVERTISING [email protected] against 13 foes in the GII San Gabriel S. and Salutos Amigos Director of Advertising: Alycia Borer (Salute the Sarge) goes postward in the GIII Midnight Lute S. Art Director: Lia Kusch Sr. Ad Coordinator/Dir. of Distribution: Sarah K. Andrew @SarahKAndrew Advertising Designer: Amanda Crelin ECLIPSE FINALISTS REVEALED WEDNESDAY 7 Advertising Assistant: Amanda Foster Finalists in 17 equine and human categories for 2015 Eclipse Social Media Strategist: Nichola Henry Awards will be announced from Gulfstream Park next Wednesday. MARKETING STRATEGIST Brittlan Wall @BrittlanWall [email protected] CUSTOMER SERVICE [email protected] Director of Customer Service: Vicki Forbes Want to observe a stallion's progeny performance from a certain crop year? INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Director of IT: Robert Williams Among all Northern Hemisphere stallions, the 2012 foal crop by Galileo (Ire) leads the [email protected] way in progeny earnings, with Pioneerof the Nile and Tapit not far behind. You can make Director of Internal IT: Ray Villa other crop year comparisons using the TDN Crop Year Reports under the “Sire Lists” tab [email protected] on the home page. Click here for the current 2012 Crop Year Report. WORLDWIDE INFORMATION International Editor: Kelsey Riley [email protected] Newmarket Bureau, Cafe Racing: Sean Cronin & Tom Frary [email protected] 60 Broad Street, Suite 100 Red Bank, NJ 07701 732-747-8060 | 732-747-8955 (fax)

www.thoroughbreddailynews.com www.thetdn.com HEADLINE NEWS • PAGE 3 OF 7 • THETDN.COM THURS • DEC. 31, 2015

FEATURE PRESENTATION • GIII JEROME S. Hansen bought 40 mares to send to Hansen, who then was exported to Korea several months after the 2013 breeding season. The doctor is selling most of the mares and their Hansen-sired yearlings, which at auction averaged more than $50,000 (for a $12,500 stud fee), including a $250,000 filly he bred. “That was right before Tapit hit big-time. Just bad timing,” he said of the sale. “...So many times a month it occurs to me that he isn’t here, and it’s just so sad, kind of an emptiness. [But] I had a year that I was doing so well that I was even jealous of Hansen Hoping for First in Jerome (cont. from p1) myself.” The Mike Maker-trained Hansen, out of Dr. Hansen’s $5,000 Hansen’s only horse at the track was the claimer Tapanna, claim Stormy Sunday, went three-for-three and held off Union Hansen’s soon-to-be 8-year-old full-brother, when he got a call Rags by a head to win the from Ryan Patterson, a 25-year-old bloodstock agent from GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Cincinnati asking if he’d be interested in Let Me Go First. and the Owner-breeder Spendthrift Farm sent Let Me Go First to 2-year-old championship Blane Servis, the 28-year-old son of trainer John Servis. The for 2011. Hansen took mission was to win and sell the gelding, in which Spendthrift Aqueduct’s GIII Gotham gave Blane half-interest. before his Blue Grass Servis loved the horse, who is out of the Chief Seattle mare second, was ninth in the Aspen Mountain, making him a half-brother to graded-stakes winner Bolo (Temple City) and from the family of 2009 GI Kentucky Derby, then won Let Me Go First | Equi-Photo Prairie Meadows’ GIII Iowa Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird (Birdstone) and Derby before retiring with a tendon injury after the West (Even the Score), who beat Hansen in the 2012 Blue Grass. Virginia race. Cont. p4 HEADLINE NEWS • PAGE 4 OF 7 • THETDN.COM THURS • DEC. 31, 2015

Let Me Go First finished fifth in a debut sprint, then improved things that falls into your lap. If he could finish one-two in the to a third around two turns--an even better performance Jerome and finish strong, then I’ll think we’ve got something.” considering that Let Me Go First lost a month’s training thanks to an equine herpes virus quarantine at Parx. Then came a 3 1/4-length victory. Time to sell. Saturday, Aqueduct, post time: 3:50 p.m. EST “The way he trains, the way he’s run and his pedigree show JEROME S.-GIII, $200,000, 3yo, 1m 70y he’s going to like more distance,” said Servis, who was 16 when PP HORSE SIRE JOCKEY TRAINER WT his dad trained 2004 Kentucky Derby and GI Preakness winner 1 Silent Assassin K Harlan's Holiday Arroyo Zito 116 Smarty Jones. “When you first see him, he’ll catch your eye, a 2 In Equality K Quality Road Alvarado Gyarmati 116 big, really good-looking horse. He’s still a bit immature, which 3 Donegal Moon K Malibu Moon Franco Pletcher 116 makes what he’s done more impressive.” 4 Flexibility Bluegrass Cat Ortiz, Jr. Brown 116 Servis sought an owner who would leave Let Me Go First in the 5 Vorticity K Distorted Humor Ortiz Lawrence, II 120 barn. A high-school friend in Arkansas suggested reaching out to 6 Bird of Trey Birdstone Carmouche Servis 118 Patterson, who lined up Dr. Hansen. 7 Condo King K Tiz Wonderful Silvera Rodriguez 116 Hansen said Dullahan in the pedigree “perked me up.” 8 King Kranz K Munnings Velasquez Terranova, II 116 “We thought if we could hold off Dullahan in the Blue Grass 9 Let Me Go First Paddy O'Prado Rosado Servis 116 then we’d have a really good shot for the Derby,” he recalled. Owners: 1-Southwest Capital Racing, 2-Treadway Racing Stable, 3-Donegal “Little did we know Dullahan was a synthetic monster. Plus for Racing, 4-Klaravich Stables, Inc. and Lawrence, William H., 5-Schera, two hours instead of getting his afternoon nap, they were Matthew, 6-JRita Young Thoroughbreds LLC, 7-Dubb, Michael, Bethlehem washing the blue stuff out of his tail. Stables LLC and The Elkstone Group LLC, 8-Zayat Stables, LLC, 9-Hansen, Kendall E. and Servis, Blane “…I looked at pictures of this horse, did some handicapping on Breeders: 1-Tom Grether Farms, 2-Robert J. Costigan, 3-Patchen Wilkes what he did the first three races and said, ‘This could be a mile Farm, LLC, 4-WinStar Farm, LLC, 5-Upson Downs Farm & Winstar Farm, and a quarter horse easy.’ And he’s run OK on dirt, but with his LLC, 6-JRitaYoung Thoroughbreds, LLC, 7-Brian Kahn, Bedouin Bloodstock turf breeding he’d have a really good shot at Turfway’s Spiral S., LLC &Red Diamond Bloodstock LLC, 8-Bob Austin & Alice Austin, a synthetic prep race for the Derby. This is just one of those 9-Spendthrift Farm LLC HEADLINE NEWS • PAGE 5 OF 7 • THETDN.COM THURS • DEC. 31, 2015

Saturday, Santa Anita Park, post time: 4:30 p.m. EST 6 Class Leader K Smart Strike Desormeaux Sadler 118 SANTA YNEZ S.-GII, $200,000, 3yo, f, 6 1/2f 7 Bal a Bali (Brz) Put It Back Prat Mandella 118 PP HORSE SIRE JOCKEY TRAINER WT 8 Obviously (Ire) Choisir (Aus) Talamo D'Amato 118 1 My Dynamo K Discreetly Mine Perez Bonde 119 9 Wanstead Gardens Flower Alley Stevens French 118 2 Rockantharos Kantharos Maldonado Miller 119 10 Chiropractor Kitten's Joy Nakatani Proctor 123 3 Decked Out K Street Boss Desormeaux Desormeaux 119 11 Macro Access (Arg) Equal Stripes (Arg) Garcia Lobo 118 12 Kenjisstorm Stormy Atlantic Maldonado Knapp 118 4 Treasuring Smart Strike Espinoza Baffert 119 K 5 One Last Shot Any Given Saturday Smith Baffert 119 13 Southern Freedom Pure Prize Smith Hollendorfer 118 6 Code Warrior K Society's Chairman Sanguinetti Badilla 119 14 Quick Casablanca (Chi) Until Sundown Baze McAnally 118 7 Pretty N Cool K Scat Daddy Garcia Baffert 123 Owners: 1-Bienstock or Winner, 2-Michael House, 3-Barber, Silver Ranch Stable or Wachtel Stable, 4-Warren B. Williamson, 5-Stepaside Farms, LLC, 6-Lane's 8 Forever Darling K Congrats Bejarano Baltas 119 End Racing, 7-Fox Hill Farms, Inc. or Siena Farms, LLC, 8-Fanticola or Scardino, Owners: 1-Brown or Lebherz or Klein, 2-Altamira Racing Stable or Rockin Robin 9-Chrys Family Revocable Trust, 10-Glen Hill Farm, 11-Rio Dois Irmaos, LLC, Racing Stable, 3-Voss or Big Chief Racing, LLC (Lessee), 4-Hill 'n' Dale Equine 12-KM Racing Enterprise, Inc., 13-Dang, Mark DeDomenico LLC or Todaro, Et Holdings, Inc, or McGhee, 5-Speedway Stable, LLC, 6-J C Racing Stable, Al, 14-Pablo Gomez 7-Pegram, Watson or Weitman, 8-Baltas or Hebert or J K Racing LLC Breeders: 1-SNC Regnier & San Gabriel Inv. Inc., 2-Brylynn Farm, Inc., 3-Old Breeders: 1-Stone Farm, 2-Courtney Meagher & Chad Meagher, 3-Haymarket English Rancho & Berumen, 4-Williamson Racing, LLC, 5-Schow Family Trust, Farm LLC, 4-Hill 'N' Dale Equine Holdings, Inc. &Stretch Run Ventures, LLC, 6-W. S. Farish, 7-Haras Santa Maria de Araras, 8-Miss Deidre Cogan, 9-Eugene 5-Dean Hayes & Darley, 6-Pamela Edel, 7-Nancy C. Shuford, 8-Debby Oxley Melnyk, 10-Glen Hill Farm, 11-Abolengo, 12-Dapple Bloodstock & Susan Bunning, 13-A R Enterprises, Hollendorfer, Todaro & Bluegrass Farm Partners, Saturday, Santa Anita Park, post time: 7:00 p.m. EST 14-Haras Matancilla SAN GABRIEL S.-GII, $200,000, 4yo/up, 1 1/8mT PP HORSE SIRE JOCKEY TRAINER WT Look for the K throughout the TDN graded stakes 1 Flamboyant (Fr) Peer Gynt (Jpn) Blanc Gallagher 118 entries, denoting Keeneland sales graduates. 2 Big John B Hard Spun Bejarano D'Amato 123 3 Poshsky Vronsky Espinoza Miller 118 4 Texas Ryano Curlin Graham Gaines 118 All horses in the TDN are bred in 5 Power Ped Powerscourt (GB) Gutierrez Drysdale 118 North America, unless otherwise indicated HEADLINE NEWS • PAGE 6 OF 7 • THETDN.COM THURS • DEC. 31, 2015

Saturday, Gulfstream Park, post time: 1:05 p.m. EST Breeders: 1-Jacks or Better Farm Inc., 2-Ric Deg Farm & Luisa Degwitz, 3-Arthur HUTCHESON S.-GIII, $100,000, 3yo, 6f St. George & James Bredin, 4-Orlando Martinez, 5-Jettany Thoroughbred Corp & PP HORSE SIRE JOCKEY TRAINER WT J.A.G. Racing, Inc, 6-Jill Imperio 1 Union Grace In Summation Villa-Gomez Jones 116 2 Awesome Banner Awesome of Course Caraballo Gold 116 Saturday, Gulfstream Park, post time: 3:05 p.m. EST 3 Full Salute K Speightstown Zayas Plesa, Jr. 120 DANIA BEACH S.-GIII, $100,000, 3yo, 7 1/2fT 4 Noholdingback Bear K Put It Back Saez De Paulo 116 PP HORSE SIRE JOCKEY TRAINER WT 5 Danbury Kantharos Castellano Kaplan 116 1 Isotherm K Lonhro (Aus) Saez Weaver 120 6 While Ye May K Pioneerof the Nile Hernandez Kobiskie 116 2 Mountain Music Man Bluegrass Cat Velazquez Pletcher 118 7 Sheikh of Sheikhs K Discreetly Mine Rosario Ward 120 3 Copingaway K Brother Derek Bocachica Mejia 114 Owners: 1-Gerald Jones, 2-Jacks or Better Farm, Inc., 3-Morris Bailey, 4-Bear 4 Life Imitates Art K More Than Ready Rosario Brown 114 Stables, Ltd., 5-Michael G. Bernard, 6-PTK, LLC, 7-Abdullah Saeed Almaddah 5 At the Ready Ready's Image Lynch Hennessy 114 Breeders: 1-Buddy Jones, 2-Jacks or Better Farm Inc., 3-Lakland Farm, 4-Jerry 6 Fast Karma High Cotton Hernandez Kobiskie 114 Jamgotchian, 5-Robert C. Roffey Jr., 6-Candy Meadows, LLC, 7-Manuel Andrade 7 Urban Bourbon K City Zip Lanerie Kenneally 114 8 Duffle Bag K Northern Afleet Gaffalione Kobiskie 114 Saturday, Gulfstream Park, post time: 1:35 p.m. EST 9 Ray's The Bar (GB) Exceed And Excel (Aus) Castellano Brown 114 OLD HAT S.-GIII, $100,000, 3yo, f, 6f 10 Surgical Strike Red Giant Leparoux Colebrook 114 PP HORSE SIRE JOCKEY TRAINER WT Owners: 1-Matthew Schera, 2-Lawana L. & Robert E. Low, 3-Thoroughbred 1 Ballet Diva Hear No Evil Caraballo Gold 120 Champions Training Center LLC, 4-Klaravich Stables, Inc. and William H. 2 Catira Rock Rock Hampton Zayas Sano 116 Lawrence, 5-Penny Lopez, 6-PTK, LLC, 7-Bourbon Lane Stable, 8-PTK, LLC, 3 Dad's Kiddo K Proud Citizen Hernandez Kobiskie 116 9-Head of Plains, Vintage Thoroughbreds LLC et al and Bradley Thoroughbreds, 4 My Dear Venezuela Wildcat Heir Jaramillo Tessore 116 10-Edward A. Seltzer and Beverly S. Anderson 5 Lucy N Ethel During Navarro Preciado 116 6 Little Caton Seeking Beauty Lopez Vaccarezza 116 Breeders: 1-H. Allen Poindexter, 2-WinStar Farm, LLC, 3-Brereton C. Jones, Owners: 1-Jacks or Better Farm, Inc., 2-Magic Stables, LLC, 3-PTK, LLC, 4-Hardacre Farm LLC, 5-Kathie Maybee, 6-Mr. & Mrs. Marty Hershe, 7-K & G 4-Orlyana Farm, 5-J A G Racing and Jettany Thoroughbred Corp., 6-Vaccarezza, Stables, 8-Sierra Farm, 9-Niarchos Family, 10-Edward A. Seltzer & Beverly Carlo and J. and J. Stable Anderson HEADLINE NEWS • PAGE 7 OF 7 • THETDN.COM THURS • DEC. 31, 2015

Saturday, Santa Anita Park, post time: 6:00 p.m. EST MIDNIGHT LUTE S.-GIII, $100,000, 4yo/up, 6 1/2f PP HORSE SIRE JOCKEY TRAINER WT 1 Seattle Serenade K Smart Strike Smith Hollendorfer 119 2 San Onofre Surf Cat Solis Headley 119 3 Distinctiv Passion With Distinction Maldonado Bonde 121 4 Pulling G's K Curlin Espinoza Shirreffs 119 5 Raised a Secret Songandaprayer Perez Glatt 119 6 All Run Flower Alley Gutierrez Baltas 119 7 Salutos Amigos Salute the Sarge Garcia Jacobson 121 Owners: 1-Mark DeDomenico, LLC, Hill 'n' Dale Equ.Hdgs, Inc.,Hollendorfer, 2-Matson Racing, 3-Brown, Jr., Klein or Lebherz, 4-Flag Lake II Stable, 5-Rodney E. Orr, 6-Durwood Ashcroft, 7-Jacobson or Southern Equine Stable, LLC Veitch column: It’s time NYRA restores Horse Haven Breeders: 1-Hill 'N' Dale Equine Holdings, Inc. & N.E.T.P., 2-Bruce Headley, “It is time to restore Horse Haven. Since its creation in 1955, the 3-Harold J. Plumley, 4-Fares Farm LLC, 5-Dahlberg Farms LLC, 6-Esquire Stables (1990) Ltd., 7-Joan Hadley Thoroughbreds New York Racing Association has been the caretaker of Saratoga Race Course.” Michael Veitch, Saratogian UPCOMING MAJOR NORTH AMERICAN STAKES Regal Ransom Succumbs to Colic (cont. from p1) Date Race Track Regal Ransom was represented by his first crop of runners this 1/2 GII San Gabriel S. SA year and currently has eight winners, including stakes-placed GII Santa Ynez S. SA Freaky Kiki and Lemnos (Tur). GIII Hutcheson S. GP “We are very saddened by the loss of Regal Ransom,” said GIII Old Hat S. GP Darley America COO Dan Pride. “These situations are never GIII Dania Beach S. GP easy, but we are thankful that it was handled quickly and that he GIII Jerome S. AQU didn’t suffer. He served Sheikh Mohammed and our team well, 1/3 GIII Monrovia S. SA and he will be missed.” GIII Midnight Lute S. SA Regal Ransom will be buried at Jonabell Farm. 1/9 GII Fort Lauderdale S. GP GII San Pasqual S. SA GIII Hal’s Hope S. GP GIII Marshua’s River S. GP ECLIPSE FINALISTS REVEALED WEDNESDAY GIII Sham S. SA The finalists for 2015 Eclipse Awards will be announced live next Wednesday at 11:05 a.m. ET from Gulfstream Park and on Gulfstreampark.com, Xpressbet.com and all outlets carrying the Gulfstream Park simulcast feed. Larry Collmus will host the 30- minute broadcast revealing finalists in 17 equine and human categories. Winners in all categories will be announced at the 45th annual Eclipse Awards, presented by Daily Racing Form, Breeders’ Cup and The Stronach Group, Jan. 16 at Gulfstream Park.

TDN TODAY Headline News...... 7 pages REGIONAL REPORT Thursday • Dec. 31, 2015

Wednesday’s Results: 4th-GP, $35,000, Alw (NW1X)/Opt. Clm ($75,000), 12-30, 2yo, f, 1m, 1:36.50, ft. SOPHIA'S SONG (f, 2, Bellamy Road--Dreamscape, by Mt. Livermore) finished second behind a “TDN Rising Star” performance from Jennifer Lynnette (Elusive Quality) on debut over the Woodbine synthetic Oct. 18 and went gate-to-wire to earn her diploma next out there Nov. 14. Favored at 9-5 in this first attempt on conventional dirt, the chestnut got away a bit awkwardly after being bumped at the start and sat back in a ground saving sixth behind an opening quarter in :23.32 and a slightly quicker half in :45.77. Sneaking up the fence to take control approaching the far turn, Sophia’s Song easily sailed clear in the lane without much prompting from Javier Castellano to score by a decisive 6 1/4 lengths over Will Be Magical (Wilburn). Smart Shopping (Smart Strike), a half-sister to GISW Power Broker (), was a late scratch. The winner is a half to Tax Refund (Artax), MSW, $317,782. Her dam Dreamscape is a full-sister champion sprinter Housebuster and a half to GSW & MGISP Quero Quero (Royal Academy). Dreamscape produced a filly by Gemologist last term and a full-brother to Sophia’s Song this year. Sales history: $30,000 RNA Ylg '14 KEESEP; $30,000 2yo '15 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: 3-2-1-0, $54,832. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton. 5th-GP, $34,000, (S), Msw, 12-30, 2yo, 6f, 1:10.82, ft. O-Janice Attard & Abraham Hadeed; B-Lemons Mill Farm & Foxtale Farm (KY); T-Sid C. Attard. +PINSTRIPE (c, 2, High Cotton--My Friend Melini, by Trippi), who was hammered down to even-money favoritism for this 2nd-GP, $48,000, Msw, 12-30, 2yo, f, 1mT, 1:39.47, fm. debut, pressed from second through an opening quarter in RONTOS LILY (f, 2, Big Drama--Platinum Tiara {MSW & GISP, :22.37 and a half in :45.61. Assuming command in the lane, the $608,785}, by Cozzene) was a well-beaten third in her career bay swiftly extended clear to win by five lengths over Mr. Smith bow sprinting over the main track here July 18. Given a brief (High Cotton). Sales history: $13,000 Ylg '14 OBSWIN; $45,000 freshening, she returned to complete the trifecta in the state- Ylg '14 FTKJUL; $130,000 2yo '15 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: bred Juvenile Filly Sprint S. at Gulfstream Park West Nov. 7 and 1-1-0-0, $20,400. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, was sixth last time there in the Hut Hut S. Nov. 28. Dismissed at sponsored by Fasig-Tipton. 29-1 in this switch the grass, the dark bay immediately seized O-Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners; B-Marion G. Montanari (FL); control and was unpressured through comfortable early T-Todd A. Pletcher. fractions of :24.06 and :49.05. Bowling along on the lead, she continued to pour it on in the lane and hit the line a never-in- A GARY YOUNG 2YO-IN-TRAINING SALES RECOMMENDATION doubt 2 3/4-length winner over Love the Kitten (Kitten’s Joy). She is the 13th winner for her freshman sire (by Montbrook). The winner’s dam Platinum Tiara, who her breeders’ Bridlewood 2016 Stud Fees campaigned to three stakes win and a second in the 2000 GI Benny the Bull $1,000 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, produced a full sister to Rontos Big Drama $15,000 Lily named Rita last year and was bred back to Brethren. Sales Chitu $3,000 history: $40,000 Wlg '13 OBSOCT; $25,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP. Corfu $3,000 Lifetime Record: SP, 4-1-0-2, $47,100. Click for the Fort Loudon $4,000 Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton. Mach Ride $2,000 O-Rontos Racing Stable Corp.; B-M375 Thoroughbreds Inc. (FL); Wagon Limit $2,000 T-Enrique A. Sanchez. Regional Report • PAGE 2 of 4 • thetdn.com Thursday • Dec. 31, 2015 TODAY’S INSIGHTS 4th-GP, $45K, Alw/Opt. Clm. ($75K), 3yo/up, 1m, 2:05 p.m. ET Starlight Racing’s ITSAKNOCKOUT (Lemon Drop Kid), winner Numbers Up at Mahoning Valley Fall Meet: of the GII Fountain of Youth S. via DQ, makes his return to the Mahoning Valley Race Course concluded its 2015 Fall/Winter races in this salty allowance field. The Todd Pletcher trainee season with increases in total handle, on-track handle, field size followed the Fountain of Youth with a fourth behind stablemate and purse distribution. Driven by increased handle and VLT and “TDN Rising Star” Materiality (Afleet Alex) in the GI Florida revenue, the Ohio track offered record purses during the meet, Derby Mar. 28 and has not been seen since finishing ninth in the with overnight purses averaging more than $106,000. The GI Kentucky Derby May 2. “We were prepping him for the average field size for the 37-day meet was over 10.13 per race. Belmont S. and he came up a little bit off,” Starlight co-managing partner Don Lucarelli said. “He just wasn’t moving well, so we Total handle for the meet was $25,690,640, for a daily average gave him time off. You have to be at 110% to run in those big of $694,341. races, so we gave him some time and hopefully it serves him “Our entire racing team went above and beyond the call of well. It looks like it did. He’s training really well.” The bay takes duty to help make this season a success,” said Mark Loewe, on six black-type winners in this test, including 2014 GII Vice-President of Ohio Racing Operations for Penn Gaming. “Like Brooklyn S. winner Norumbega (Tiznow). TJCIS PPs. most of the country, we have enjoyed a very temperate climate thus far. That, along with the support of our fans and from 7th-GP, $50K, Msw, 2yo, 1mT, 3:35 p.m. ET Christophe Clement unveils the regally-bred BERLINER horsemen throughout Ohio and neighboring areas contributed (Bernardini) in this spot for owner/breeder Stronach Stables. greatly to our increases.” The dark bay was produced by an unraced half-sister to Terry Houghton was the meet’s leading rider with 29 wins. champion Macho Uno (Holy Bull) and MGISW multimillionaire Robert Gorham led all trainers with 21 victories. Awesome Again (Deputy Minister). He enters this test off a best- Racing resumes at Mahoning Valley Jan. 2 and continues of-48 half-mile breeze at Payson Park in :48 3/5 Dec. 24 and through Apr. 23. comes from a barn known for its success with grass runners. Juddmonte Farms will be represented by yet another blue- blooded homebred here in the form of Kapellmeister (Tapit). Conditioned by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, the gray is out of a half- sister too MGISWs Sightseek (Distant View) and Tates Creek Wednesday’s Results: (Rahy); and this is also the family of European champion Special Duty (GB) (Hennessy). Tom Albertrani saddles yet another nicely KALOOKAN QUEEN S., $98,850, SA, 12-30, 3yo/up, f/m, 6 1/2f, bred firster for a top breeding operation in Godolphin Racing’s 1:14.77, ft. Tizn’t a Saint (Tiznow), who is a full brother to MGSW sire Tiz 1--SUNDAY RULES, 122, f, 4, Tribal Rule--Sunday Dress, by Wonderful. TJCIS PPs. General Meeting. O/B-Nick Alexander (CA); T-Philip D'Amato; J-Mike E. Smith. $59,940. Lifetime Record: 8-7-0-1, $444,840. 2--Kiss At Midnight, 120, f, 3, Decarchy--Mink Kiss, by Distinctive Cat. ($27,000 Ylg '13 BAROCT). O-William Marasa, Nancy Messineo, Richie Robershaw, Mark Rose, et al; B-Steven Greco (CA); T-Richard Baltas. $19,980. Wednesday’s Results: 3--Lost Bus, 118, f, 3, Bring the Heat--Frysland, by Stravinsky. 4th-AQU, $55,000, (S), Msw, 12-30, 2yo, 1m 70y, 1:45.81, my. O-Terry C. Lovingier; B-John R. Haagsma & Wesley Ward (CA); OWNER GENTLEMAN (c, 2, Pleasantly Perfect--Rosie's T-Gary Sherlock. $11,988. Promises, by Gold Token) checked in sixth in his six-furlong Margins: 4 1/4, 1 1/4, 3/4. Odds: 0.90, 5.00, 39.50. unveiling here Nov. 28 and added blinkers for this extension in Also Ran: Tara's Tango, Wasted At Midnight, Stealth Drone, trip. Away well, the 9-2 shot pressed remained glued to the Harlington's Rose, Dancinthenightaway. pacesetting R F Burton (Congrats)’s flank in second through Sunday Rules added yet another victory to her resume leisurely early splits. The dark bay drew even with that rival in Wednesday with a front-running score in Santa Anita’s Kalookan the stretch and the pair battled stride-for-stride to the wire with Queen S. Taking up her preferred position at the head of affairs, Owner Gentleman edging ahead late for a neck victory. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-0, $33,325. Click for the Equibase.com chart or the heavy favorite was doing it all on her own under a VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton. motionless Mike Smith, setting sharp opening splits of :21.52 O/B-Susan Wenner (NY); T-David G. Donk. and :44.18. Cont. p3 Regional Report • PAGE 3 of 4 • thetdn.com Thursday • Dec. 31, 2015

Kalookan Queen S. cont. 8th-SA, $57,000, Msw, 12-30, 2yo, f, 1 1/16m, 1:43.51, ft. Showing the way into the lane with Smith still just a quiet SHE'S ON THE LINE (f, 2, Line of David--Run Carrie Run, by passenger, the bay effortlessly cruised clear to win for fun. Orientate) finished fourth on debut sprinting over the main “Once we jumped well and track here May 21 and was fifth next time over this strip June 4. she got a clear lead, I felt Improving to second behind MGISP Land Over Sea (Bellamy confident that she was going Road) when switched to the turf and extended to a mile at Del to run well, but you also Mare July 29, the bay was a well-beaten seventh when back on never know how fast they’re the main track there Aug. 22 and was 10th last time in that going to push you,” said venue’s grassy Juvenile Fillies Turf S. Sept. 7. Getting the blinkers Smith. “The track is playing off in this return to the dirt, the 17-1 shot seized the early really quick and although we advantage and set a moderate early pace. She’s On the Line were running fast, it was well found another gear in the lane under heavy urging from jockey Sunday Rules | Benoit Photo within her scope and she was Joe Talamo and held off a late-running She’s a Warrior (Majestic fine. When Warrior) to win by a half-length. The winner, a $30,000 FTKFEB Dancinthenightaway came up to me around the quarter pole, I yearling and $95,000 BARMAR juvenile, is a half-sister to moved her over just a bit and she just took off. It was pretty Honey’s Ryan (Student Council, SW, $149,405). Click for the impressive.” Sunday Rules kicked off her career in 2013 with a Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton. pair of daylight wins against fellow Cal-breds on the synthetic at Lifetime Record: 6-1-1-0, $52,580. Del Mar, including the Generous Portion S. Benched for 10 O-Albert & Kathleen Mattivi; B-University of Kentucky (KY); months, she romped by 8 3/4 lengths against open company on T-Steve Knapp. Santa Anita main track in June 2014 and was shelved for another 10 months before returning a winner here once again Apr. 30. Victorious in the state-bred Spring Fever S. May 23, the bay Thursday, Santa Anita, post time: 7:00 p.m. EDT EDDIE LOGAN S., $75,000, 2yo, 1mT suffered her first loss at the hooves of Fantastic Style (Harlan’s PP HORSE SIRE JOCKEY TRAINER ML Holiday) in the GII Great Lady M S. at Los Alamitos July 11, but 1 Trust Your Gut City Zip Perez Glatt 5-1 returned to her winning ways last time when switched to the 2 Arabian Leopard Scat Daddy Garcia Baffert 5-1 turf at Del Mar Nov. 22. Click for the Equibase.com chart or 3 Bully Pulpit Lucky Pulpit Pereira Lewis 20-1 VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton. 4 Storming Candy Candy Ride (Arg) Smith Sise 12-1 5 Afleet Domination Afleet Alex Gutierrez Becerra 20-1 7th-SA, $63,410, Alw (NW2$X)/Opt. Clm ($62,500), 12-30, 6 Imperious One (Ire) Royal Applause (GB) Bejarano O’Neill 5-1 3yo/up, f/m, 1mT, 1:35.87, fm. 7 Path of David Istan Talamo Mulhall 5-2 PAULINA’S LOVE (f, 3, Mizzen Mast--Electric Cove, by Spinning 8 Giopress Gio Ponti Pedroza Gonzalez 20-1 World) failed to find the winner’s circle in her first six tries for 9 Mr Notorious (Fr) Myboycharlie (Ire) Gonzalez Cassidy 12-1 previous trainer George Papaprodromou, but has really come 10 Canada Giant’s Causeway Stevens Callaghan 3-1 into her own since transferring to the Richard Baltas stable this Also Eligible: spring. A 4 3/4-length graduate in her debut for this outfit over 11 Tiz a Billy Tizway Quinonez Koriner 7-2 this course Apr. 25, the chestnut made it two in a row with a local optiona claimer victory next out June 5. Third when stepped up in class in Del Mar’s GII San Clemente H. July 19, she ROOKIES was seventh after setting the early pace in the GI Del Mar Oaks First-crop starters to watch: Thursday, December 31 Aug. 15 and was a close second last time here in the GIII Autumn Sire (Sire’s Sire), current farm, 2012 Fee, #foals of racing age/Winners/ Miss S. Oct. 17. Bet down to even-money favoritism for this class BlackTypeWnrs * Race #-track, race type, distance, runner, odds (if available) drop, Paulina’s Love broke sharply and pressed the pace from BIG DRAMA (Montbrook), Bridlewood Farm, $10K, 68/13/1 the leader’s outside hip through moderate opening splits. 7-GP, Msw, 1mT, +Dramatic Entry, 30-1 Sticking her head in front approaching the bend, the chalk CROWN OF THORNS (Repent), Woodford Thoroughbreds, $4K, 21/4/1 bounded clear in the lane under a hand ride from Hall of Fame 1-DED, Msw, 7f, +A Song of Faith, $6K OBS OPN 2yo, 12-1 pilot Gary Stevens to score a 4 1/4-length victory over Nancy CUSTOM FOR CARLOS (More Than Ready), Clear Creek Stud, $3K, 50/5/1 From Nairobi (GB) (Sixties Icon {GB}), who was making her U.S. 7-FG, Stk, 6f, +Custom Paint Job, 12-1 debut for John Sadler. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 12-3-3-3, 7-FG, Stk, 6f, Carlientita, 6-1 $184,990. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, 2-FG, Msw, 5 1/2fT, +Kate's Dancer, 12-1 DROSSELMEYER (Distorted Humor), WinStar Farm, $18K, 96/8/0 sponsored by Fasig-Tipton. 9-FG, Msw, 1m, +Whipsaw, $35K KEE SEP yrl, 8-1 O-KM Racing Enterprise Inc.; B-Jason Hall (LA); T-Richard Baltas. 7-TP, Msw, 1m, Princess Drossie, $82K RNA FTK JUL yrl, 10-1 G1-PLACED SON OF DYNAFORMER LIKE TEMPLE CITY

Winner of the Transylvania S. (G3), runner-up of the Blue Grass S. (G1) just 8 days later.

Placed in the $1,500,000 Belmont S. (G1), beaten only a length by while finishing ahead of California Chrome.

The Breeders’ Farm 859.294.0030 | www.spendthriftfarm.com

Dynaformer – Brisquette, by ’s Song 2016 fee: $5,000 S&N Regional Report • PAGE 4 of 4 • thetdn.com Thursday • Dec. 31, 2015

GIANT OAK (Giant's Causeway), Millennium Farms, $8K, 40/2/1 5-TP, Msw, 6 1/2f, Tavernonthecrow, 10-1 B R E E D E R S’ E D I T I O N GIO PONTI (Tale of the Cat), Castleton Lyons, $20K, 110/8/0 AMERICA 7-SA, Stk, 1mT, Giopress, $19K RNA BAR MAY 2yo, 20-1 HAYNESFIELD (Speightstown), Airdrie Stud, $10K, 78/10/1 ALLOWANCE RESULTS: 9-FG, Msw, 1m, Mason County, $145K RNA KEE SEP yrl, 4-1 MISREMEMBERED (Candy Ride {Arg}), Hill 'N' Dale Farms, $8K, 37/5/0 8th-AQU, $59,000, (S), (NW2$X)/Opt. Clm ($40,000), 12-30, 5-TP, Msw, 6 1/2f, +Roberts Rogue, 30-1 3yo/up, 1 1/16m, 1:45.41, my. REGAL RANSOM (Distorted Humor), Darley, $8K, 48/8/0 SEND IT IN (g, 3, Big Brown--Sharp Instinct, by Awesome Again) 7-GP, Msw, 1mT, +Nidge, $3K KEE SEP yrl, 12-1 Lifetime Record: 10-4-2-2, $181,214. O/B-Paul Pompa (NY); 5-TP, Msw, 6 1/2f, Redneck Ransom, 20-1 T-Todd A. Pletcher. SIDNEY’S CANDY (Candy Ride {Arg}), WinStar Farm, $15K, 87/9/0 2-FG, Msw, 5 1/2fT, Landing Eagle, $100K OBS MAR 2yo, 20-1 7th-AQU, $57,000, (S), 12-30, (NW1$X), 3yo/up, 1m 70y, TIZ THE ONE (Tiznow), Red River Farms, 34/10/0 1:44.37, my. 10-FG, Stk, 6f, Blue Tizzy, 6-1 TIZWAY (Tiznow), Spendthrift Farm, $25K, 73/6/2 BELLAMY WAY (r, 3, Bellamy Road--Goomada Byda Sea, by Sea 7-SA, Stk, 1mT, Tiz a Billy, $200K BAR MAR 2yo, 7-2 Hero) Lifetime Record: 9-2-3-2, $144,490. O-Two Tone Farms; 6-LRL, Msw, 1m, Tiz Stormy, $75K EAS MAY 2yo, 8-1 B-B P Walden Jr. & John Stuart (NY); T-David A. Cannizzo. 5-TP, Msw, 6 1/2f, Tizmatized, $3K RNA KEE SEP yrl, 4-1 *$57,000 Wlg '12 KEENOV; $125,000 Ylg '13 SARAUG. **1/2 to TURN HIM BACK (Mineshaft), 5/1/0 Goombada Guska (Yonaguska), MSW, $333,770; City Broad (City 1-DED, Msw, 7f, Graphene Miracle, 15-1 Zip), SP, $252,827; and Itsagoodtendollars (Tale of the Cat), SP, TWIRLING CANDY (Candy Ride {Arg}), Lane's End Farm, $15K, 92/25/0 $444,052. 5-TP, Msw, 6 1/2f, +Twizz, $75K OBS APR 2yo, 2-1 LANE’S END Sales Graduate WILBURN (Bernardini), Spendthrift Farm, $7K, 106/20/0 6-LRL, Msw, 1m, Whatifiwaswilling, $10K OBS OPN 2yo, 15-1 7-DED, Alw, 5f, Berniestrike, 6-1 ADDITIONAL MAIDEN WINNERS: Infinite Fiesta, g, 2, Desert Party--Marieval, by El Prado (Ire). First/second-crop starters to watch: Thursday, December 31 DED, 12-30, 7f, 1:28.18. B-David Cottle & Smart Angle LLP (PA). Sire (Sire’s Sire), current farm, 2011 Fee, #foals of racing age/Winners/ *$13,000 Wlg '13 KEENOV; $24,000 RNA Ylg '14 EASSEP; BlackTypeWnrs * Race #-track, race type, distance, runner, odds (if available) $15,000 RNA 2yo '15 TEXAPR. **1/2 to Savvy Street (Street BULLSBAY (Tiznow), Northview PA, 37/10/1 Sense), SW, $118,610. 8-AQU, Stk, 1 1/16m, Bullheaded Boy, $115K OBS OPN 2yo, 4-1 Cause for Surprise, g, 2, Giant Surprise--Jumpin Jacqueline, by LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike), Ashford Stud, $35K, 176/70/6 Mr. Sinatra. AQU, 12-30, (S), 1m 70y, 1:45.47. B-Luck Be a Lady 8-AQU, Stk, 1 1/16m, Good Luck Gus, $97K SAR AUG yrl, 5-1 (NY). *Fifth winner for freshman sire (by Giant’s Causeway). 2-FG, Msw, 5 1/2fT, +Pancho's Lucky Boy, $47K BSC YRL yrl, 8-1 Trained at Crupi’s New Castle Farm MUSKET MAN (Yonaguska), Waldorf Farm, $3K, 38/20/2 8-AQU, Stk, 1 1/16m, Ostrolenka, 6-1 Mineyerownmalone, g, 2, Mineshaft--Molly Malone, by Strong Hope. SA, 12-30, (C), 1m, 1:35.43. B-Hare Forest Farm Ltd. (KY). *$20,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP. Stealin' Summer, c, 2, Summer Bird --Indy Cate, by Cat Thief. HAW, 12-30, (S), 6f, 1:13.11. B-Carent Stables LLC (IL). Lucky T Lou, g, 3, Camp Izard--Roll Me Over, by Gerosa. MVR, 12-30, (S), 6f, 1:15.84. B-Benjamin Ray Grandstaff (OH). FTKJUL grad Pinstripe (High Cotton) scored Cambodia, f, 3, War Front--Sassifaction, by Smart Strike. TAM, an impressive debut victory at Gulfstream. 12-30, 1mT, 1:36.82. B-Don M. Robinson & Maverick Productions Ltd. (KY).

Virtual Inspections + Gallop-Out Videos At the Sales. On the Farm. At the Track. video services and marketing for thoroughbreds www.thorostride.com 917.826.9603 [email protected] THURSDAY, 31 DECEMBER 2015

TRAINER FORM AND PATTERNS CAN’T SEPARATE THEM IN QATAR DERBY by Steve Sherack After further review, we have a dead-heat. Eckhard Sauren’s Rogue Runner (Ger) (King’s Best--Rosa di Brema {Ity}, by Lomitas {GB}) hit the wire together with the absolutely flying Tannaaf (Ire) (High Chaparral {Ire}-- Wanna {Ire}, by Danehill Dancer {Ire}) Dead-Heat in Qatar Derby | qrec.gov.qa to share the top prize in dramatic fashion in the US$500,000 Qatar Derby (N) at Al Rayyan (chart) Wednesday evening. Cont. p4

Paul Nicholls | Racing Post

By James Willoughby The tendency for humans to seek out and try to explain HANSEN HOPING FOR FIRST IN JEROME patterns is acutely obvious in analysis. The sport is Dr. Kendall Hansen, who made a splash on the Triple Crown governed by a multitude of statistics, and often those numbers trail scene three years with 2011 juvenile champion Hansen, produce sequences into which people tend to read a cause. could be back on the road to Louisville with Let Me Go First There is no better example than the concept of “Trainer Form”-- (Paddy O’Prado), entered in Saturday’s GII Jerome S. the apparent correlation of performance between horses from Click or tap here to go straight to TDN America. the same yard. Trainer Form can be good or bad, but the case du jour arousing interest about nine-times champion jumps trainer Paul Nicholls is decidedly to the negative. Following a spate of below-par performances from Nicholls- trained horses in the last few weeks, a growing belief has propagated that horses in his powerful Somerset stable are collectively off colour. This was first a meme of social media, before print journalists picked up on it, though the Racing Post is reporting the trainer himself unconcerned by a barren spell of over two weeks. The achievement of a racehorse can be described by any number of performance measures. A simple guide is its finishing rank, and if not successful, its lengths behind the winner. An example of a more sophisticated appraisal is the Racing Post Rating, which places performance on a scale covering the universe of horses in the same domain. These data are known to statisticians as random variables because some unknown fraction of each is either outside the racehorse’s control (luck, health, suitability to conditions) or else beyond our understanding. Cont. p2 TDN EUROPE • PAGE 2 of 5• THETDN.COM THURSDAY, 31 DECEMBER 2015

TRAINER FORM AND PATTERNS (cont. from p1) The win-loss record of a sample of racehorses is governed by countless variables, of which at least 50 can be captured or Most often, the identification of Trainer Form in the media is calculated from the data supplied by the Racing Post itself. The motivated by a recent sample of wins or losses skewed to the most significant driver of racehorse performance is, of course, positive or negative. In the present case, the performance of intrinsic merit, but a horse’s handicap mark is also highly Nicholls-trained runners is summarised by a relatively poor win- important, as is its suitability to ground conditions. There are loss report in the Racing Post story. many others factors familiar to followers of the sport. In the Racing Post story, an inference in invited by use of the win-loss record of Nicholls runners partitioned by calendar month. But the fortunes of the yard could also be driven by other factors, one of which Nicholls clearly believes is important: “We’ve lots of horses to run in the spring that want better ground,” he said. At the win-loss level, a trainer’s record can show clustering of wins and losses for a number of reasons. An influx of new talent Figure 1: Strike-rate of Paul Nicholls-trained runners in December may lead to a slew of wins at the start of the season, for in recent seasons instance, but when the stable’s horses pick up penalties or ascend the handicap, it is more difficult to continue winning. The Nicholls’ strike-rate in December this year is indeed more than opposite trend--a slow start and a belated winning spree--may twice as low as the lowest of the four previous seasons. The be related to a switch in ground conditions typical of changing reporter Jon Lees--one of the most responsible in the business -- seasons, such as Nicholls identifies, or may come about for includes quotes from the trainer in which he comes off as strategic reasons, owing to the season being back-loaded with apparently unconcerned, but the views of his assistant Harry valuable prizes. Derham are more cautionary. TDN EUROPE • PAGE 3 of 5• THETDN.COM THURSDAY, 31 DECEMBER 2015

These factors and others are dynamic, and, coupled with the account. More often than not, the opposite is true. Whatever randomness of the racecourse and the fact strike-rate makes no the metric attempting to capture Trainer Form, regression to the differentiation between a horse finishing last or finishing mean is more likely than momentum: it is hard to keep winning second, and there is obvious potential for any signal of form to when penalties mount up, the handicapper has his say and the be accompanied by noise. ground changes. If there really is any information in the win-loss metric which Any system featuring proactive handicapping and seasonality provokes interest in Trainer Form, it ought to show up in data. of ground conditions is likely to drive form in cycles. And that is So, has Nicholls’ win-loss record in December predicted his the most rational reason for any clustering of wins, regardless of performance in January? Is a win-loss record clean enough to whether “Trainer Form” is real or an illusion. know what will happen next to the yard? NEW YEAR, NEW CHALLENGES FOR O’BRIEN 2016 looks like being a different year for former Irish champion jockey Joseph O’Brien. If all goes to plan he hopes to be granted a trainer’s license within the first few months of the year, a move which will then see the 22-year-old saddle predominantly national hunt horses from the family’s yard in Pilltown, Co. Kilkenny. He has already sent out his first winner as a point to point trainer(for which you do not require a Turf Club license) and O’Brien can look forward to unleashing a number of well-bred young jumpers, many of them owned by JP McManus Figure 2: Paul Nicholls 1997-2015: New Year Form Reversal throughout the year. Reflecting on a riding career that yielded stellar results in just a few No. Figure 2 contains a circle for each season of December- seasons, O’Brien said, "I was January strike-rates (there is some over plotting). On the X-axis so lucky to get to ride some is the trainer’s strike-rate in December and on the Y-axis is the of the great horses that I got trainer’s strike-rate in January. Overall, Nicholls has a 25.2% to ride and I always knew that strike-rate in December and a 20.9% strike-rate in January, so I'd never be able to ride the axes are scaled to allow for this different baseline. forever. I didn't eat much and (Incidentally, I would read nothing as far as seasonality into the was always sweating, but difference between these two strike-rates; it is the motivation jockeys the world over do Joseph O’Brien could well be the for further study.) that and I wasn't any youngest trainer in Ireland in 2016 | different to them, really.” The purple “best-fit” line has a negative (downward) slope, Racing Post meaning that higher-than-average strike-rates in December are O’Brien has not, however associated with lower-than-average strike-rates in January, and ,turned his back in anyway on proceedings further south in vice versa. Also, the graph is divided into quadrants to make it Ballydoyle and he gave a glowing report on some of the well clearer that the Nicholls yard tends to experience a reversal in known stars trained by his father Aidan. The horse many fans relative efficiency over the New Year period: there are more are looking forward to seeing most in 2016 is undoubtedly triple points in the upper-left and lower-right quadrants, showing that Group 1 winning 2-year-old Air Force Blue (War Front). Last seen romping to victory in the G1 Dewhurst S. at Newmarket in the stable’s win-loss record in December is a poor guide to its October, Joseph O’Brien reports the colt to have wintered well. relative fortunes in January. “He's turned into a huge, big monster of a horse. He's done The data shows that, at least for the Nicholls stable in this part really well and he's a very exciting horse for next season. The G1 of the year, there is no momentum in either direction as far as 2000 Guineas at Newmarket is the plan." Reflecting on his win-loss record is concerned. We have established that Nicholls juvenile year in which he tasted defeat only once when beaten has a 4.3% lower strike-rate in January than December (25.2% by Buratino (Ire) (Exceed And Excel {Aus}) in the G2 Coventry S. minus 20.9%) on average, but I would certainly take 5-4 against at Royal Ascot, O’Brien added, "Air Force Blue never looked like the opposite coming true this season (Figure 1 shows I have 10% he was going to be a 2-year-old as he's such a big horse, but he to beat if securing the price!). just got better and better all year. He always worked well and The message is that we should consider a horse’s chance on a really improved when he got to the track. He has a lot of speed case-specific basis, rather than relying on the magical belief that and class." Cont. p4 performance has trend after all other factors are taken into TDN EUROPE • PAGE 4 of 5• THETDN.COM THURSDAY, 31 DECEMBER 2015

With Golden Horn (GB) (Cape Cross {GB}) having broken the Miss Phillyjinks (Ire), f, 2, Zoffany (Ire)--Smoken Rosa, by Smoke recent Coolmore/Ballydoyle stranglehold on the G1 Epsom Glacken. WOL, 12-30, 5f 216y (AWT), 1:15.07. B-J K Dewberry Derby, the Ballydoyle team will be keen to resume normal (IRE). *€12,000 Ylg ‘14 TISEP. **32nd winner for freshman sire service in 2016 and Joseph O’Brien nominated a few of the (by Dansili {GB}). likelier Ballydoyle candidates for the Epsom Classic. "With Nosey Barker (Ire), c, 3, Rip Van Winkle (Ire)--Cold Cold Woman regards to the Derby, we've a number of nice colts that all ran (GB) (SW-US, $116,436), by Machiavellian. LIN, 12-30, 10f very well in big races. There’s Johannes Vermeer (Ire) (Galileo (AWT), 2:05.24. B-Eimear Mulhern (IRE). *€70,000 Ylg ‘13 {Ire}) who won the G1 Criterium International in France and GOFORB. we've a horse out of Remember When (Ire) (Danehill Dancer {Ire}), Beacon Rock (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), who ran very well a couple of times.” O’Brien also gave favorable mention to a few unexposed colts but intends to keep readers guessing a while longer as to their identity. "We also have several nice Galileo (Ire) (Sadler’s Wells) colts that haven't run and we've a nice horse that was just beaten in a maiden at Leopardstown towards the end of the season. So we have some nice horses that may be a little bit under the radar hopefully. Galileo is CAN’T SEPARATE THEM IN QATAR DERBY probably the best sire ever and you could never have enough of (cont. from p1) them.” Saving all the ground while keeping them within his scope, Rogue Runner was produced as they straightened for home, took over from the pacesetting Shutterbug (Fr) (Soldier of Fortune {Ire}–Nazlia {Fr}, by Polish Precedent) shortly thereafter, and was reaching for the wire. The aforementioned Mike de Kock charge, owned by Sheikh Mohammed Bin Khalifa Al Maktoum, launched from very far back on the extreme outside

to finish up like a freight train just to get a piece of it. Shutterbug stayed on for third, two lengths adrift the top pair. Wednesday’s Results: Rogue Runner was declared the winner after the initial 6th-WOL, £7,000, Mdn, 12-30, 2yo, 8f 141y (AWT), 1:48.96, ft. examination of the photograph, but the ruling was later DISOBEDIENCE (g, 2, Street Cry {Ire})--Rosa Parks {GB} overturned. {MSP-Eng & SP-Ity}, by Sadler’s Wells), a well-beaten seventh in “We had a lot of luck,” Germany-based trainer Mario Hofer his Lingfield debut last time Oct. 27, settled in rear for most of offered while being congratulated by de Kock, who immediately this second go. Improving into mid division on the final bend, bee-lined after thinking that he had come up a nose short. “This the 15-2 chance turned for home in fourth and kept on was a very good performance today.” resolutely under continued urging in the straight to outgame Hofer signed the slip on Rogue Runner for €80,000 at the King of Dreams (GB) (Dream Ahed) by a half length. The winner, Arqana Saint-Cloud Arc de Triomphe Sale earlier this fall. He from the family of Classic-winning highweights Barathea (Ire) finished last of 15 over the all-weather in the Listed Prix Lyphard (Sadler’s Wells) and Gossamer (GB) (Sadler’s Wells), is a S. at Deauville Dec. 1, his first try for the Hofer yard. He failed to full-brother to a yearling colt, and half to a filly foal by Lonhro hit the board in six subsequent attempts–including a close (Aus). Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-0, $6,709. Video, sponsored by fourth in the G2 International Bosphorus Cup at Veliefendi Sept. Fasig-Tipton. 6--after kicking off his career with two straight wins at O-Godolphin; B-Darley (KY); T-Charlie Appleby. Hoppegarten Racecourse. Rogue Runner was previously a €55,000 BBAAUG yearling graduate. ADDITIONAL MAIDEN WINNERS: “This is my first time here,” Hofer continued. “I think the Murdanova (Ire), c, 2, Zebedee (GB)--Agnista (Ire), by Iffraaj future will be better and better here. It’s great to have been (GB). WOL, 12-30, 5f 216y (AWT), 1:15.07. B-John Lyons (IRE). here. And even more great to have the winner.” *€8,500 Wlg ‘13 GOFNOV; £17,000 Ylg ‘14 DNPRM; £16,000 Tannaaf, a 280,000gns TATOCT yearling purchase by Form 2yo ‘15 DONBRE. Bloodstock, was last seen placing a close third in the Listed Fairway S. at Newmarket May 30. Cont. p5 TDN EUROPE • PAGE 5 of 5• THETDN.COM THURSDAY, 31 DECEMBER 2015

A debut winner there last summer, Tannaaf was fourth in both Friday, Sha Tin, Hong Kong, post time: 4:05 p.m. the Tattersalls Millions Trophy at Newmarket Apr. 16 and the BAUHINIA SPRINT TROPHY H., HK$3,000,000 (US$387,090), 3yo/up, G3 Chester Vase S. May 7, respectively. 1000mT PP HORSE SIRE JOCKEY TRAINER WT *Compete chart & wrap-up blog from Qatar will appear in 1 Bundle of Joy (Aus) Magic Albert (Aus) Moreira Hall 126 2 You Read My Mind (Ire) Exceed & Excel (Aus) Leung D Cruz 113 tomorrow’s TDN. 3 Dundonnell First Defence Benoist Gibson 129 4 Not Listenin’tome (Aus) Dylan Thomas (Ire) Purton Moore 133 5 Rad (Aus) Foreplay (Aus) Whyte Hall 122 6 Domineer (GB) Shamardal Ho Fownes 127 WHAT THEY’RE SAYING AT THE QATAR DERBY 7 Charles the Great (Ire) Holy Rmn Emprr (Ire) Callan Moore 126 Trainer Marco Botti after winning the US$25,000 Al Rayyan 8 Strathmore (Aus) Fastnet Rock (Aus) Schofield Millard 113 Consolation Trophy with Rasikh (Ire) (Thewayyouare): 9 Amber Sky (Aus) Exceed & Excel (Aus) Mosse Yiu 128 10 Charity Joy (NZ) Nt a Sngle Dbt (Aus) Yeung Shum 113 “This is my second time here. We came last February with a Click for the HKJC.com PPs. horse that ran well and I was keen to come back. The races here are getting better and better and the set-up is incredible. The Friday, Sha Tin, Hong Kong, post time: 4:35 p.m. trainers and owners are well-looked after and we’re very pleased CHINESE CLUB CHALLENGE CUP H., HK$3,000,000 (US$387,090), to come here with our horses and to have our first winner.” 3yo/up, 1400mT PP HORSE SIRE JOCKEY TRAINER WT TOP CLEARANCE RATE AT DUBAI SALE 1 Gurus Dream (NZ) Ishiguru Yeung Yip 114 Monday Dec. 28 in Dubai saw the ERA Racing In Dubai Sale 2 I’m In Charge (Aus) Magnus (Aus) Prebble Fownes 120 3 Multivictory (NZ) Bachelor Duke Cheng A Cruz 113 take place. The auction was a success with all 49 lots changing 4 Secret Sham (Aus) Shamardal Whyte Moore 128 hands for a total of AED8,520,000 (US$ 2,246,536) with an 5 Rewarding Hero (GB) Exceed & Excel (Aus) Callan Moore 127 average of AED173,878 (US$47,339). Top price on the day was 6 Contentment (Aus) Hussonet Moreira Size 132 lot 42 Untold Secret (GB) (Shamardal), formerly trained in 7 Key Witness (Aus) Show a Heart (Aus) Wong A Cruz 113 France by Andre Fabre and a winner and stakes placed in 2015 8 Super Lifeline (Aus) Churchill Downs (Aus) Fourie Millard 114 when second in the G2 Prix Greffulhe to Sumbal (Ire) (Danehill 9 Packing Pins (NZ) Pins (Aus) Purton Yiu 125 Dancer {Ire}). The 3-year-old, who ran in the Godolphin colors, 10 Exciting Dream (GB) Bertolini Leung Moore 115 was purchased by Saleem Rashid Bin Ghadayer for AED675,000 11 Dan Excel (Ire) Shamardal Schofield Moore 133 (US$183,773). 12 Packing Llaregyb (Ire) Dylan Thomas (Ire) Mosse Schutz 121 Another that sold well was lot 32 Midlander (Ire) (Shamardal), Click for the HKJC.com PPs. a six-time winner when trained by Mark Johnston. The 95 rated 3-year-old colt was bought by Satish Seemar for AED600,000 (US$163,354).