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A Rapid and Scalable Approach to Planetary Defense Against Asteroid Impactors

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A Rapid and Scalable Approach to Planetary Defense Against Asteroid Impactors THE LEAGUE OF EXTRAORDINARY MACHINES: A RAPID AND SCALABLE APPROACH TO PLANETARY DEFENSE AGAINST ASTEROID IMPACTORS Version 1.0 NASA INSTITUTE FOR ADVANCED CONCEPTS (NIAC) PHASE I FINAL REPORT THE LEAGUE OF EXTRAORDINARY MACHINES: A RAPID AND SCALABLE APPROACH TO PLANETARY DEFENSE AGAINST ASTEROID IMPACTORS Prepared by J. OLDS, A. CHARANIA, M. GRAHAM, AND J. WALLACE SPACEWORKS ENGINEERING, INC. (SEI) 1200 Ashwood Parkway, Suite 506 Atlanta, GA 30338 (770) 379-8000, (770)379-8001 Fax www.sei.aero [email protected] 30 April 2004 Version 1.0 Prepared for ROBERT A. CASSANOVA NASA INSTITUTE FOR ADVANCED CONCEPTS (NIAC) UNIVERSITIES SPACE RESEARCH ASSOCIATION (USRA) 75 5th Street, N.W. Suite 318 Atlanta, GA 30308 (404) 347-9633, (404) 347-9638 Fax www.niac.usra.edu [email protected] NIAC CALL FOR PROPOSALS CP-NIAC 02-02 PUBLIC RELEASE IS AUTHORIZED The League of Extraordinary Machines: NIAC CP-NIAC 02-02 Phase I Final Report A Rapid and Scalable Approach to Planetary Defense Against Asteroid Impactors Table of Contents List of Acronyms ________________________________________________________________________________________ iv Foreword and Acknowledgements___________________________________________________________________________ v Executive Summary______________________________________________________________________________________ vi 1.0 Introduction _________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 2.0 Background _________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 3.0 Objective ___________________________________________________________________________________________ 7 4.0 Analysis Overview ____________________________________________________________________________________ 8 5.0 Concept Overview ____________________________________________________________________________________ 9 5.1 MADMEN Spacecraft__________________________________________________________________________ 10 5.2 MADMEN Production and Development ___________________________________________________________ 12 5.3 System Reliability and Robustness _______________________________________________________________ 12 5.4 Scalability___________________________________________________________________________________ 13 5.5 Concept of Operations (ConOps)_________________________________________________________________ 13 6.0 Initial Parametric Analysis ______________________________________________________________________________ 16 6.1 DV Requirement _____________________________________________________________________________ 16 6.2 Ejection power, Energy, and Lander Force _________________________________________________________ 17 6.3 Source Power Trade Study _____________________________________________________________________ 19 6.4 Number of Lander Spacecraft Required ___________________________________________________________ 20 7.0 DEFT Scenarios______________________________________________________________________________________ 22 8.0 Baseline MADMEN Lander Design _______________________________________________________________________ 24 8.1 Overview ___________________________________________________________________________________ 24 8.2 System Sizing _______________________________________________________________________________ 25 9.0 In-Space-Transfer-Stage (ISTS) _________________________________________________________________________ 31 9.1 Overview ___________________________________________________________________________________ 31 9.2 Trajectory Modeling ___________________________________________________________________________ 31 9.3 System Sizing _______________________________________________________________________________ 35 10.0 Architecture Success and Cost _________________________________________________________________________ 36 10.1 Mission Success ____________________________________________________________________________ 36 10.2 Architecture Cost ____________________________________________________________________________ 37 11.0 Baseline Sensitivity Analysis ___________________________________________________________________________ 38 12.0 Future Work ________________________________________________________________________________________ 40 13.0 Summary __________________________________________________________________________________________ 41 14.0 Media and Public Relations Efforts ______________________________________________________________________ 42 APPENDICES Appendix A: Works Citied _________________________________________________________________________________ 43 Appendix B: Organization and Personnel _____________________________________________________________________ 45 iii The League of Extraordinary Machines: NIAC CP-NIAC 02-02 Phase I Final Report A Rapid and Scalable Approach to Planetary Defense Against Asteroid Impactors List of Acronyms ACS Attitude Control System ANTS Autonomous Nano-Technology Swarm AU Astronomical Unit CAPS Comet Asteroid Protection System ConOps Concept of Operations DDT&E Design, Development, Testing, and Evaluation DEFT Defined Threat DES Discrete Event Simulation ETO Earth To Orbit GEO Geostationary Orbit HEDS Human Exploration and Development of Space ISTS In Space Transfer Stage K-T Cretaceous-Tertiary L1, L2 Lagrange Points LCC Life Cycle Cost LD Lunar Distance LEO Low Earth Orbit LM Lunar Module LOEM League of Extraordinary Machines LPC Long Period Comet MADMEN Modular Asteroid Deflection Mission Ejector Node MBS Mass Breakdown Structure NEO Near-Earth Object NIAC NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts PBR Particle Bed Reactor PHO Potential Hazardous Object RASC Revolutionary Aerospace Systems Concepts ROSETTA Reduced Order Simulation for Evaluation of Technologies and Transportation Architectures SEI SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. TFU Theoretical First Unit USRA Universities Space Research Association iv The League of Extraordinary Machines: NIAC CP-NIAC 02-02 Phase I Final Report A Rapid and Scalable Approach to Planetary Defense Against Asteroid Impactors Foreword and Acknowledgements Acknowledgments are given to the NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts (NIAC), part of the Universities Space Research Association (USRA), for funding of the Phase I study that encompasses research addressed in this paper. Particular appreciation is extended to NIAC director Bob Casanova for providing material and collateral support on this project. Gratitude is also expressed to the late Gerard K. O’Neill for his discussion on the subject of mass drivers. Additional appreciation is also expressed to Dr. Steven A. Curtis of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center and his associated NASA colleagues for their investigative work on concepts for space exploration using a swarm of spacecraft. v The League of Extraordinary Machines: NIAC CP-NIAC 02-02 Phase I Final Report A Rapid and Scalable Approach to Planetary Defense Against Asteroid Impactors Executive Summary A new approach to mitigate and protect against planetary impactor events is proposed. The primary objective of this systems concept is to apply small perturbations to Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) in an attempt to divert them from their path toward Earth impact. Unlike past proposals from other individuals or organizations, this project concept proposes a rapid and scalable solution consisting of tens, hundreds, or thousands of small, nearly identical spacecraft that will intercept the target body and conduct mass driver/ejector operations to perturb the target body’s trajectory to the point where an impact with Earth can be avoided. There have been many ideas woven together to develop the asteroid concept presented herein. From mass driver technology to notions of swarm intelligence, various technologies and approaches have been combined to develop a potentially unique approach to planetary defense against asteroids and comets. Such a spacecraft, referred to here as a Modular Asteroid Deflection Mission Ejector Node (MADMEN) spacecraft could conceivably be nuclear powered, pre-deployed outside of low earth orbit (likely at an Earth-Moon or Earth- Sun libration point), and be capable of using chemical propulsive boost to rapidly intercept an incoming target. Upon arrival at the target, each MADMEN spacecraft will begin to eject small amounts of mass from the asteroid that will, over time, have the effect of slightly changing the heliocentric orbit of the target so that Earth impact is avoided. Such a design philosophy focuses on developing rapid and scalable NEO mitigation plans incorporating the world’s current launch vehicle/spacecraft bus manufacturing capability. Specific planetary threats are examined, each with different impact times and masses, and based upon predetermined fictitious Defined Threat (DEFT) scenarios. Potential advantages envisioned in such an architecture design include: integrating the analysis of spacecraft development/deployment/launch, ability to complete the mission given the loss of part of the swarm, scalability of response for different size threats, and flexibility to initiate an immediate response leaving the option to develop more advanced systems. The Phase I portion of the project presented the MADMEN architecture as a novel and potentially valuable technique for NEO deflection. The assessment in Phase I has essentially indicated that a swarm of several, identical spacecraft, launched on existing Earth-To-Orbit (ETO) launch vehicles may be able to drill out enough material over the course of several months to change a locally/regionally-devastating
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