Reviewing Precinct Level Results of the June 2012 Mayoral Election

The Looming Battleground in Clairemont

The race to become mayor of the City of San Diego has narrowed down to two finalists. In this policy brief the National University System Institute for Policy Research (NUSIPR) analyzed newly released electoral data from the San Diego County Registrar of Voters’ office using GIS software.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• The June mayoral primary was a partisan election. Interstate 8 continues to delineate a partisan divide in San Diego, which weighed heavily in the electoral outcome. GIS maps show that Republican DeMaio earned most of his votes in older, more conservative neighborhoods north of Interestate 8, while Democrat Filner won the lion’s share of votes among the younger, more diverse and liberal enclaves south of 8. Both candidates are likely to target low-propensity partisan voters that did not turn out for the June election, to shore up their base early in the fall election.

• Support for Bonnie Dumanis and lacked a geographic base. NUSIPR found that District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis and State Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher won only a handful of precincts outright, even when combining their votes. GIS mapping shows that there was no clear territory where either candidate earned deep voter support. Generally, Dumanis and Fletcher did best in parts of Carmel Valley, Point Loma, and Mission Valley. However, in only 9 precincts (out of a total of approximately 633) did the combined vote total of Dumanis and Fletcher exceed 50%.

• Clairemont will be a high-stakes voter battleground for DeMaio and Filner in November. Many voters in Clairemont were divided in their choice for mayor and was the most competitively fought over community in the City. It is likely that both mayoral campaigns will be spending significant time in the area, and will recruit popular, well-known local leaders (, Councilmember Lorie Zapf) to solicit votes in the general election.

• Candidates will have to prepare for a different election in the fall. The voting electorate for primary elections in San Diego is significantly smaller than general elections, particularly in presidential election years. Consider that in the last primary election in a presidential year (2008), voter turnout countywide was 33.99%, while the fall voter turnout was 83.72%. DeMaio and Filner will have to shore up their partisan voter base, will reaching out to younger, diverse, and Decline to State voters to achieve victory on Election Day.

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Figure 1: Percentage of Vote Won by Filner, by Precinct

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Figure 2: Percentage of Vote Won by DeMaio, by Precinct

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Figures 1 and 2 show the geographic split between DeMaio and Filner when it came to the June primary. Congressman Filner did best in the southern parts of the City, particularly the areas he has represented in Congress and while on the San Diego City Council. His challenge is to expand his support North of Interstate 8 beyond the enclaves surrounding UCSD and USD.

The returns for Councilmember DeMaio illustrate an almost mirror image. The Councilmember’s core support was in the northern parts of the City and in the current 5th Council District. He was weakest in the areas south of Interstate 8.

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Figure 3: Percentage of Vote Won by Dumanis and Fletcher, by Precinct

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In Figure 3 we added Dumanis and Fletcher’s vote totals together. In very few precincts (Bird Rock, Harborside, Black Mountain Ranch, and Kensington) did the candidates combine for greater than 50% of the vote.

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Figure 4: Voter Precincts, by Degree of Competitiveness

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Figure 4 shows the degree to which voters were equally distributed among the four candidates. A score of 100 would represent a precinct which voters were evenly split among the 4 candidates. A precinct with a value of 0, by contrast, would be a precinct in which all voters supported a single candidate.

This chart illustrates just how competitive the areas in the middle part of the City are likely to be. Party registration is generally even in this area. They represent some of San Diego’s most populous “first ring” post-war suburbs. Over the past two decades University City has been represented by a Republican (Harry Mathis) and a Democrat (Scott Peters/Sheri Lightner). Conversely, Clairemont during essentially the same time was represented by a Democrat (Donna Frye) and now a Republican (Lorie Zapf.) Given the even distribution of primary voters among the four candidates, we would expect that mailboxes in Clairemont will be extra burdened by mailers in the fall and that the candidates will learn well the neighborhoods of Bay Ho, South UC, and Western Clairemont as they look for votes.

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About the National University System Institute for Policy Research

The National University System Institute for Policy Research (NUSIPR) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that formulates and promotes high quality economic policy and public opinion research to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of local governments in San Diego County and to improve the quality of life enjoyed by the region’s residents.

NUSIPR regularly publishes independent research and analysis for the public on a range of topics, including unemployment, business growth, and the San Diego housing market. The Institute also works collaboratively with clients to develop high-quality research products that are tailored to their policy needs.

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