Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 365–381, 2018 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-365-2018 © Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change Geert Jan van Oldenborgh1, Sjoukje Philip1, Sarah Kew1, Michiel van Weele1, Peter Uhe2,7, Friederike Otto2, Roop Singh3, Indrani Pai4,5, Heidi Cullen5, and Krishna AchutaRao6 1Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands 2Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK 3Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, the Netherlands 4Columbia Water Center, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA 5Climate Central, Princeton, NJ, USA 6Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India 7Oxford e-Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK Correspondence: Geert Jan van Oldenborgh (
[email protected]) Received: 19 March 2017 – Discussion started: 31 March 2017 Revised: 29 October 2017 – Accepted: 27 December 2017 – Published: 24 January 2018 Abstract. On 19 May 2016 the afternoon temperature aerosols to diminish as air quality controls are implemented. reached 51.0 ◦C in Phalodi in the northwest of India – a new The expansion of irrigation will likely continue, though at a record for the highest observed maximum temperature in In- slower pace, mitigating this trend somewhat. Humidity will dia. The previous year, a widely reported very lethal heat probably continue to rise. The combination will result in a wave occurred in the southeast, in Andhra Pradesh and Telan- strong rise in the temperature of heat waves. The high hu- gana, killing thousands of people. In both cases it was widely midity will make health effects worse, whereas decreased air assumed that the probability and severity of heat waves in pollution would decrease the impacts.