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Derry City Council Derry City Council Air Quality Review and Assessment: Stage 3 Report This project has been part funded by contributions from the EU Building Sustainable Prosperity Programme administered by DoE Environment and Heritage Service Cambridge Environmental Research Consultant Ltd Detailed Air Quality Modelling of Domestic Fuel Use and Road Traffic Emissions in Derry Prepared for Derry City Council 26 th August 2004 CERC Modelling of domestic fuel use and road traffic emissions, Derry Modelling of domestic fuel use and road traffic emissions, Derry Contents 1. SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................................1 2. INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................................................3 3. THE STUDY AREA ...................................................................................................................................4 3.1 TERRAIN DATA .....................................................................................................................................4 4. METEOROLOGICAL DATA...................................................................................................................6 5. AIR QUALITY STANDARDS ..................................................................................................................8 6. BACKGROUND DATA ........................................................................................................................... 10 7. LOCAL MONITORING DATA.............................................................................................................. 11 7.1 BIAS ADJUSTMENT OF NO 2 DIFFUSION TUBE DATA............................................................................. 11 8. MODELLING OF ROAD TRAFFIC EMISSIONS .............................................................................. 15 8.1 EMISSIONS DATA ................................................................................................................................ 15 8.1.1 Buncrana Road / Racecourse Road .............................................................................................. 18 8.1.2 Pennyburn roundabout ................................................................................................................. 20 8.1.3 Strand Road at Rockmills and Coppin House............................................................................... 23 8.1.4 Dales Corner ................................................................................................................................ 25 8.1.5 Woodburn Park / Dungiven Road at the Irish Street lights .......................................................... 27 8.1.6 Glenshane Road at Altnagelvin Hospital...................................................................................... 29 8.1.7 Creggan Road / Infirmary Road ................................................................................................... 31 8.2 MODEL VERIFICATION ........................................................................................................................ 33 8.3 PREDICTED CONCENTRATIONS OF NO 2 ............................................................................................... 36 8.3.1 Predicted Concentrations at Buncrana Road / Racecourse Road ................................................ 36 8.3.2 Predicted Concentrations at Pennyburn roundabout ................................................................... 37 8.3.3 Predicted Concentrations at the Strand Road junction ................................................................ 37 8.3.4 Predicted Concentrations at Dales Corner .................................................................................. 37 8.3.5 Predicted Concentrations at Woodburn Park / Dungiven Road junction..................................... 37 8.3.6 Predicted Concentrations at Glenshane Road at Altnagelvin hospital......................................... 38 8.3.7 Predicted Concentrations at Creggan Road / Infirmary Road ..................................................... 38 9. MODELLING OF DOMESTIC FUEL USE EMISSIONS................................................................... 53 9.1 EMISSIONS DATA ................................................................................................................................ 53 9.2.1 Model verification for PM 10 .......................................................................................................... 59 9.2.2 Model verification for SO 2 ............................................................................................................ 61 9.3 PREDICTED CONCENTRATIONS FOR PM 10 AND SO 2 ............................................................................ 64 9.3.1 Predicted concentrations of PM 10 , 2004....................................................................................... 64 9.3.2 Predicted concentrations of PM 10 , 2010....................................................................................... 79 9.3.3 Predicted concentrations of SO 2 ................................................................................................... 91 10. DISCUSSION.......................................................................................................................................... 101 APPENDIX A: SUMMARY OF ADMS-URBAN ......................................................................................... 103 Modelling of domestic fuel use and road traffic emissions, Derry 1. Summary Derry City Council (the council) has highlighted areas of possible exceedence of the Air Quality Strategy (AQS) objectives for: • NO 2, due to road traffic emissions at seven junctions; and • SO 2 and PM 10 , due to domestic fuel use emissions at sixteen urban and ten rural locations. CERC was commissioned by the council to undertake air quality modelling for these areas using the ADMS-Urban model (version 2.0). The council provided all activity data for the study, including traffic flows, speeds and road characteristics for the traffic modelling, and domestic fuel use survey data for the domestic fuel use emissions modelling. Other sources of emissions of the modelled pollutants in the surrounding area were considered by modelling them as a set of 1km square grid sources. Gridded emissions data from the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) were used to represent these emissions. The modelling was carried out using hourly sequential meteorological data from Aldergrove, with wind data from Ballykelly, for the period April 2002 to March 2003. Road traffic modelling Traffic count data for each of the modelled roads were used to calculate emissions of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2). Concentrations of NO 2 have been calculated for comparison with the Air Quality Strategy (AQS) objectives. There is a small area of predicted exceedence of the 2005 AQS objective for annual average NO 2 concentrations at the Creggan Road / Infirmary Road junction. The maximum predicted 3 annual average concentration of NO 2 is 42.5µg/m , equivalent to 106% of the 2005 AQS objective. This area of exceedence is very small, and occurs only on the junction itself. However, the results of the model verification suggest that the model may be significantly underpredicting the concentrations at Creggan Road, and therefore this area of exceedence may cover a larger area. There are no other predicted exceedences of either of the 2005 AQS objectives for NO 2 at the modelled junctions. Domestic fuel use modelling A domestic fuel use survey was carried out by Derry City Council to obtain information concerning the quantity and type of fuel used for domestic heating in representative areas. These data were used to calculate emissions of particulates (PM 10 ) and sulphur dioxide (SO 2) in each area. Concentrations of SO 2 and PM 10 have been calculated for comparison with the Air Quality Strategy (AQS) objectives. Modelling of domestic fuel use and road traffic emissions, Derry 1 Model verification was carried out for the year April 2002 to March 2003. To ensure that predicted concentrations of PM 10 and SO 2 were not being underestimated at any location, worst case adjustment factors were calculated based on the comparison between modelled and monitored concentrations at the Brandywell monitoring site. The adjustment was applied to the predicted concentrations across the whole of Derry. Applying this adjustment is likely to give a gross overestimate of the predicted concentrations at many sites. There are no predicted exceedences of the 2004 annual average AQS objective for PM 10 at any of the urban or rural locations. st The 90.41 percentile of daily average concentrations of PM 10 is predicted to be exceeded in three of the modelled areas: Bogside (site b); Ballymagroarty; and Claudy. Concentrations across the whole of Derry were adjusted using factors derived from the Brandywell monitoring site, located in the Bogside area, so the exceedence in Bogside is supported by local monitoring data. The area of exceedence in Ballymagroarty is small, and the values only exceed by a small amount, so given the high adjustment factor used it is likely that this is not a cause for concern. At the rural location of Claudy, the high adjustment factor used across Derry is likely to lead to a gross overestimate of the impact, so it is unlikely that this predicted exceedence is a real one,
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