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Identifying the Critical Spaces of the 2012 Elections

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Identifying the Critical Spaces of the 2012 Elections Notes 1 Introduction 1. Indeed, even without such confounding factors, a ‘pure’ bipartisan system would not be predictable any more than an imperfect, realistic one. Knowing the equilibrium number of parties in a system does not guarantee knowing who votes for them or why. Even under Downsian rationality, ideology for the two parties acts as a signpost, not a GPS. 2. Those more enthused by cycle race or chess analogies should refer to commentary on the 2012 elections on our blog: 500signatures.com. 2 Knowns and Unknowns: Identifying the Critical Spaces of the 2012 Elections 1. ‘Deux riches familles ont payé les vacances des Sarkozy’, Libération, 18 August 2007, http://www.liberation.fr/politiques/010119427-deux-riches- familles-ont-paye-les-vacances-des-sarkozy, accessed 4 February 2013. 2. ‘Quand le président cajole ses (généreux) donateurs’, Le Parisien, 9 December 2009, http://www.leparisien.fr/politique/quand-le-president-cajole-ses- genereux-donateurs-09-12-2009-737945.php, accessed 4 February 2013. 3. As we shall see in Chapter 8, perversely for the FN, low turnout – so often a bonus for far right parties – dampened their ability to play kingmaker in a large number of constituencies. 4. Drees (2012) Suivi barométrique de l’opinion des français sur la santé, la protection sociale, la précarité, la famille et la solidarité. January, 67 p. (http://www.drees. sante.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/synthese2011_barometre_drees_bva.pdf). 5. We examine this further in Chapter 8. 6. This is revealed by the positive correlation that can be found between the FN vote and the subsequent rise in blank ballots (r = .62) across all metropolitan cantons (N =3, 883), which becomes non-significant for other candidates such as Bayrou or Mélenchon. 7. http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2012/02/10/01002-20120210ARTFIG00586- nicolas-sarkozy-mes-valeurs-pour-la-france.php, accessed 14 March 2013. 8. Polling averages, rounded figures. 2007 presidential election, second round (6 May 2007): CSA–Le Parisien,exitpoll(N = 1, 030); IPSOS–Le Point,exitpoll (N = 3, 609); LH2–Libération,exitpoll(N = 1, 003); TNS-SOFRES–Le Figaro,exit poll (N = 1, 200). 2012 presidential election, second round (6 May 2012): TNS- SOFRES–TriElec,exitpoll(N = 1, 521); IFOP–Paris Match,exitpoll(N = 1, 968); IPSOS–Le Monde, pre-election poll (N = 3, 123). 190 Notes 191 3 Party Cooperation and Conflict: Actors’ Competitive Positioning 1. Besancenot’s Ligue Communiste Révolutionnaire notably refused similar alliances. 2. Looking at the 862 Left–Right second-round duels, the total score of the Right and the FN was above 50 per cent in 358 cantons. In the run-offs, however, the candidates of the mainstream Right were in a position to secure a majority in 247 (69 per cent) of those cases. 4 Candidate Selection Processes and Effe 1. In November 2006, Ségolène Royal had swept the nomination with 60.6 per cent of the vote against her rival candidates Dominique Strauss- Kahn (20.7 per cent) and Laurent Fabius (18.7 per cent). 2. It is also significant that a number of prominent personalities within the UMP (Fillon, Juppé, Hortefeux) called for a similar candidate selection pro- cess in anticipation of the 2017 presidential election, a proposal which was supported at the time by a 56 per cent majority of UMP voters (TNS-SOFRES–Canal+, 16 October 2011). 3. In the final stage of the internal campaign, opinion polls showed that Le Pen was considered the best embodiment of the party by 69 per cent of the FN supporters, against 23 per cent for her father and a mere 5 per cent for Gollnisch (BVA–Canal+, 10 December 2010). 4. In the run-off, Voynet eventually won the candidacy over Cochet with a relative majority of 46.2 per cent. 5. Let us recall that in December 2006, an overwhelming majority (81.1 per cent) of the party members had chosen to endorse Marie-George Buffet as the presidential candidate, which had then led to a split within the anti-liberal coalition and José Bové running independently to represent the whole range of non-communist partners in the anti-ECT movement. Buffet and Bové subsequently polled a disastrous 1.9 and 1.3 per cent of the vote nationally. 6. The attempt by Royal to evade the power and influence of the Solferino headquarters was probably facilitated then by the fact that the party had been severely damaged by internal strife over the European con- stitution referendum of 2005. To many observers, however, Royal had been subsequently handicapped by the lack of support from the party apparatus and national establishment in the 2007 presidential campaign, which triggered her attempt to take over the PS in the aftermath of the election. 7. Following his appointment as IMF managing director in September 2007 and because of the increasingly crucial role played by the fund in the inter- national management of the 2008 financial crisis, DSK had returned to the top of French opinion polls as ‘providential leader’ for the Left and odds-on presidential favourite to defeat Sarkozy in the 2012 election. 8. www.opinion-way.com/pdf/le_figaro-lci_le_barometre_des_primaires- vague1_14_avril.pdf, accessed 14 March 2012. 192 Notes 9. A quick glance at PS popularity shows a moderate increase in favourable ratings from 40 per cent in March 2011 up to 46 per cent immediately after the nomination race, and 51 per cent in the final stage of the first-round campaign (TNS-SOFRES). 10. Five years earlier, pollsters had very well anticipated Royal’s success but had already failed to predict primary support for Fabius. The latter had been underestimated by 10 points, inflating DSK’s score by a similar proportion, pointing to variation in primary support across party members and Socialist sympathisers. 11. This contrasted with the balance of power that had emerged from the 2007 Bordeaux party congress, which had placed Gollnisch ahead of Le Pen in the central committee delegates’ vote. 12. If we simply compute the effective number of motions – using the classic index proposed by Laakso and Taagepera (1979) – it is noticeable that there were as many as 4.1 effective motions in Reims compared with only 2.3 and 2.6 in the 2003 and 2005 party congresses, respectively. 13. The latter underwent dramatic fragmentation in 2011 following DSK’s giving up the primary bid, which pointed to the lack of organisational cohesive- ness in this otherwise ideologically consistent group of elites. Most of them endorsed Hollande – Pierre Moscovici, Gérard Collomb, Marisol Touraine or Jérôme Cahuzac for instance, with only Jean-Christophe Cambadélis lending his support to Aubry. 14. With the exception of a handful of her most loyal followers such Jean- Louis Bianco, Jean-Jack Queyranne, Najat Vallaud-Belkacem and Delphine Batho, many of Royal’s supporters defected to Hollande in the primary cam- paign (e.g. Malek Boutih, Julien Dray, Aurélie Filippetti, Vincent Peillon and François Rebsamen). The former PS presidential candidate had also to confront the decision by Valls to run individually. 15. Over 400 in total including daily presidential tracking polls during the 2012 campaign as opposed to 293 in 2007, 193 in 2002 and 157 in 1995 (Le Monde, 20 April 2012). 16. A CSA–Marianne survey revealed for instance that 20 per cent of voters would consider voting for Le Pen in 2012, as opposed to only 7 per cent for Gollnisch (Marianne, 14 January 2011). A month earlier, a BVA–Canal+ poll had shown that Le Pen and Gollnisch would receive 17 and 8 per cent, respectively, in the presidential election. 17. With only 4 per cent of right-wing supporters saying that ‘they would feel closer to the FN’ under Gollnisch as opposed to 25 per cent under Le Pen’s leadership (BVA–Canal+, 10 December 2010). 18. A position which she subsequently lost in early 2007. 5 Issues, Policy Debates and Candidate Valence 1. http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/attachments/rapport_presidoscopie_ vague9.pdf, accessed 7 May 2013. 2. We borrow the expression from Van der Eijk and Franklin (2004). 3. This would be achieved by tax raises – most notably a 2 per cent increase in VAT, the re-establishment of taxes on extra working hours and an additional 50 per cent band in the income tax for the wealthiest households – a freeze Notes 193 on government spending and the continuation of the current RGPP policy of 2007 albeit in a what would be deemed a less automatic and better prioritised approach. 4. IFOP–La Croix poll, 11 April 2012, http://www.la-croix.com/Actualite/ Economie-Entreprises/Economie/Les-Francais-veulent-relever-les-barrieres- douanieres-_NG_-2012-04-11-791901, accessed 10 May 2013. 5. IFOP–L’Humanité, 14 March 2012. 6. There were speculations that a united ‘front’ of conservative European leaders had been formed by Angela Merkel, Mario Monti, Mariano Rajoy and David Cameron, whereby they agreed not to meet with the Socialist candidate before the election. 7. To quote the French President: ‘I want a political Europe that protects its cit- izens ...We need a common discipline in border controls ...We can’t leave the management of migration flows to technocrats and tribunals’ (Le Monde, 11 March 2012, http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/article/ 2012/03/11/suivez-en-direct-le-meeting-de-nicolas-sarkozy-a-villepinte_1656 131_1471069.html, accessed 10 May 2013). 8. Stokes (1963) defines valence issues as those ‘on which parties or leaders are differentiated not by what they advocate but by the degree to which they are linked in the public’s mind with conditions or goals or symbols of which almost everyone approves or disapproves’.
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