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An Operational Anthropogenic CO₂ Emissions Monitoring & Verification Support Capacity

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An Operational Anthropogenic CO₂ Emissions Monitoring & Verification Support Capacity CO emissions Monitoring & Verification Support Capacity emissions Monitoring & Verification 2 An Operational Anthropogenic CO₂ Emissions An Operational Anthropogenic CO2 Monitoring & Verification Support Capacity Space CO2 TF-B report European Commission Directorate-General for Communication Publications 1049 Brussels BELGIUM Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union. Freephone number (*): 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 (*) The information given is free, as are most calls (though some operators, phone boxes or hotels may charge you). More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://europa.eu). Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2017 ISBN 978-92-79-72101-4 doi 10.2760/08644 © European Union, 2017 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. Printed in Belgium PRINTED ON ELEMENTAL CHLORINE-FREE BLEACHED PAPER (ECF) EUROPEAN COMMISSION Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs Directorate I — Space Policy, Copernicus and Defence Unit I.2 — Copernicus Contacts: Bernard Pinty & Hugo Zunker E-mails: [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] European Commission B-1049 Brussels An Operational Anthropogenic CO₂ Emissions Monitoring & Verification Support Capacity Baseline Requirements, Model Components and Functional Architecture Report from the CO₂ Monitoring Task Force - sub-task B Cite as: Pinty B., G. Janssens-Maenhout, M. Dowell, H. Zunker, T. Brunhes, P. Ciais, D. Dee, H. Denier van der Gon, H. Dolman, M. Drinkwater, R. Engelen, M. Heimann, K. Holmlund, R. Husband, A. Kentarchos, Y. Meijer, P. Palmer and M. Scholze (2017) An Operational Anthropogenic CO₂ Emissions Monitoring & Verification Support capacity - Baseline Requirements, Model Components and Functional Architecture, doi: 10.2760/39384, European Commission Joint Research Centre, EUR 28736 EN. November 2017 AN OPERATIONAL ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 EMISSIONS MONITORING & VERIFICATION SUPPORT CAPACITY Contributing European Institutions Management & Technical coordination The European institutions listed below, supported by European Commission Directorate-General (DG) for a team of leading scientific and technical experts, Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship contributed jointly to the present report. and SMEs (DG GROW), Directorate for Space Policy, Copernicus and Defence. European Commission Copernicus Units Directorate-General (DG) for Internal Market, Industry, Bernard Pinty (detached from Joint Research Centre) Entrepreneurship and SMEs (DG GROW); and Hugo Zunker, Policy officers in charge of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and the CO₂ Joint Research Centre (JRC); initiative (Copernicus unit I.2); Directorate General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA); Valerie Hoorne, Editorial support in the Space Data for Societal Challenges and Growth (Copernicus unit Directorate General for Research and Innovation (DG I.3). RTD). European Commission Directorate-General (DG) Joint Research Centre (JRC) European Space Agency Sophie Barbier, Administrative assistant at the JRC Directorate for Sustainable Resources (Unit D.6), Ispra, EUMETSAT Italy; Mark Dowell, Project leader at the JRC Directorate European Centre for Medium-Range Weather for Sustainable Resources (Unit D.6), Ispra, Italy; Forecasts Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Project leader at the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S); JRC Directorate for Energy, Transport and Climate (Unit C.5), Ispra, Italy; Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). Bernard Pinty, Scientific Officer at the JRC Directorate for Sustainable Resources (Unit D.6), Ispra, Italy - currently detached at DG GROW, Brussels, Belgium. Acknowledgments Legal Notice Sander Jonkers and Jeroen Kuenen (TNO) are thanked Neither the European Commission nor any person for preparing European emission maps and grids. acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for Diego Guizzardi is thanked for the preparation of all the use which might be of the following information. the EDGAR emission grid maps. Frederic Chevallier The views expressed in this publication are the sole and Yilong Wang, both from LSCE, provided inputs responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily on an earlier draft. The final draft was reviewed by reflect the views of the European Commission. Gianpaolo Balsamo from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, David Crisp from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Simon Eggleston from the Global Climate Observing System, Deon Terblanche from the World Meteorological Organization, Peter Rayner from University of Melbourne and John van Aardenne from the European Environment Agency. The authors are indebted for all these extremely valuable contributions. 2 FOREWORD Foreword Copernicus – Europe’s eyes on Earth - is the largest environmental space programme ever designed and operated in Europe to monitor our dynamic Earth. This program builds on state of the art knowledge and expertise in areas such as space-based observation technologies and the holistic interpretation of input data from a wide range of sources in order to extract information relevant to the general public and policy makers. We are acutely aware that one of the largest challenges mankind faces today concerns the Earth’s climate and the manner in which it responds in a complex and sophisticated manner to the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere associated with anthropogenic emissions. In 2015, in anticipation of COP-21, we solicited a study from a group of international experts. This study resulted in a series of recommendations addressing the needs of an operational CO2 emission monitoring system strongly underpinned by space-based observations. As a consequence the Commission has set up a specific task force to elaborate on the space- based and ground-based elements required to set up an operational capacity in support of the monitoring and verification of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This operational capacity shall, for instance, provide Europe and each individual country with a unique and unprecedented asset in evaluating the implementation and effectiveness of the many CO2 emission reduction strategies proposed by each of the signatories of the Paris Agreement. I am extremely grateful to the group of distinguished experts who developed the current report, bringing together the key European players involved in the development of the individual system components to contribute to this common goal. We also seek cooperation at the international level with other relevant institutions to join forces and share scientific and technical knowledge and means using the most appropriate frameworks. The present report provides a first step in advancing the definition and development of the envisaged system. Providing insight into the underpinning requirements and foundational building blocks required. We acknowledge and understand the responsibility and long-term commitment in building this system for the greater benefit of European and international community, and we are committed to continue in our endeavour. You should expect to hear more from us in the future. This Copernicus CO2 initiative constitutes a significant positive step in the direction given by President Jean-Claude Juncker in his State of the Union Address in 2017: 'I want Europe to be the leader when it comes to the fight against climate change'. Philippe Brunet Director Directorate 'Space policy, Copernicus and defence' 3 AN OPERATIONAL ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 EMISSIONS MONITORING & VERIFICATION SUPPORT CAPACITY 4 Table of Contents Executive Summary 7 Background & Rationale 11 1. Emissions and Policy Requirements 13 1.1Policy background 14 1.2 Input from National Inventory Agencies as stakeholders 16 1.3 Scenarios to assess the required CO sensitivity 2 17 1.3.1 Implication of the two scenarios for Europe 20 1.3.2 Spatial patterns of the emission changes 22 1.4 Global versus regional and versus local scales 25 1.4.1 International perspective 25 1.4.2 Focus on hot spots and megacities 28 1.5 Needs and capabilities for a CO2 emissions MVS 29 1.5.1 Stepwise approach for a CO2 emissions MVS capacity 29 1.5.2 Preliminary use of top-down verification for non-CO2 GHG emissions 30 2. System Overview & Architecture 33 2.1 Architecture 33 2.2 System Functional Elements 36 2.2.1 Coupled Data Assimilation 36 2.2.2 Models 39 2.2.3 Observations 42 2.2.3.1 Space-based observations 42 2.2.3.2 In situ Observations & Networks 48 2.2.3.3 Meteorology 51 2.2.3.4 Auxiliary Data 52 2.2.4 Prior Information 52 2.2.5 Data Access, Archiving and Distribution 53 Way Forward 55 References 59 List of Abbreviations and Definitions 65 Annexes 75 Annex 1 Input from National Inventory Agencies 75 Annex 2 Detailed description of the modelling sub-components 78 A 2.2 Inversion strategies 78 A 2.3 The Carbon Data Assimilation System 79 A 2.4 Atmospheric transport and meteorology 86 Annex 3 Functional architecture for the MVS 89 Annex 4 Detectable Emission fractions for various thresholds 94 List of Contributors 97 5 AN OPERATIONAL ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 EMISSIONS MONITORING & VERIFICATION SUPPORT CAPACITY 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive Summary The Monitoring and Verification Support (MVS) capacity is a technical capacity to provide support to the policy makers and the scientific community. The MVS aims at supplying extra evidence on the emissions levels and trends, coupling anthropogenic activities and associated emissions with the atmospheric patterns in greenhouse
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