Supplementary Material for Referees Information

Supplementary material for referees’ information

The material is not intended for publication but is available upon request.

Australia Farewell: Predictors of Emigration in the 2000s January 26, 2016

This supplemental appendix contains a fuller description of each of the variables in the paper.

Some variables are based on a single HILDA survey question (age, female, etc.)

others are based on many questions and constructed by the HILDA Survey managers

(income, education, etc.) We constructed other variables based on several HILDA

survey questions (exits, location of the person, etc.)

When we refer to a table in the paper we use its table number in the paper. We use appendix

number for all other tables below. These appendix tables provide the sample sizes of

the tables in the paper or are robustness checks of the results reported in the tables in

the paper.

Creation of Variables

Exit. We define an exit as being in Australia in time t and then being overseas in t+1 and t+2.

Time t is discretely measured and corresponds to the survey year or wave.

Location of a person. We use the person interview response status to determine the location of a person. Column 1 of Table A1 shows all possible response categories of the HILDA variable ‘fstatus’. Using these categories we determine a person’s location as ‘In Australia’,

‘Overseas’, ‘Deceased’, or ‘Unknown’. If a person’s location in a particular year (or streak of years) is ‘Unknown’ but that person’s location in the following year is ‘Overseas’, we change that person’s location from ‘Unknown’ to ‘Overseas’ for that year (or streak of years). That is, we assume that this person is overseas at the time the location is unknown. Similarly, if a person’s location in a particular year is ‘Overseas’ but that person’s location in the following year (or streak of years) is ‘Unknown’, we change that person’s location from ‘Unknown’ to

‘Overseas’ for that year (or streak of years). That is, we assume that this person continues to stay overseas at the time the location is unknown.

2 The hazard models we estimate treat observations with ‘Unknown’ or ‘Deceased’ locations as censored. Persons dying during the analysis period contribute data as long as they are alive

(and we can determine their location). From the year of their death onwards, their data is treated as right censored. Persons with ‘Unknown’ spells during the analysis period only contribute data during the years in which we can determine their location. In all other years, their data is treated as censored. Everyone’s data is treated as right censored from 2012 onwards because 2011 is the last year that we can observe an exit. The last year for which we have data is 2013 but our measure of exit requires two consecutive location years.

Own Generational History (first, second, or deeper rooted Australian). To create this categorical variable, we use information on a person’s country of birth and his or her father’s and mother’s country of birth. The first time a person is interviewed, HILDA asks that person: ‘In which country were you born?’ ‘In which country was your father born?’ And, ‘In which country was your mother born?’ Interviewers are instructed to indicate that HILDA is interested in the respondent’s biological parents—but only if interviewers are asked about this. In 2001, respondents were not asked about their parent’s country of birth if they lived in the same household with both parents at the time of the interview. In this case, HILDA derives the information from the parents’ own responses to the question: ‘In which country were you born?’ We use the derived HILDA variables labelled ‘Country of Birth’, ‘Father’s

Country of Birth’, and ‘Mother’s Country of Birth’.

Using data from these variables we assign each person in our sample to three distinct groups.

We define a person as a first generation Australian if that person was not born in Australia.

We define a person as a second generation Australian if that person was born in Australia but at least one parent was not born in Australia. We define a person as a deeper rooted

Australian if that person was born in Australia and both parents were also born in Australia.

Note that we also assign to this group a person not born in Australia whose parents were both

3 born in Australia, i.e. instead of treating such a person as a first generation Australian we treat him or her as a deeper rooted Australian. We assume such a person to be an Australian

Citizen and therefore strongly connected to Australia. We set this variable to missing for all persons with missing values in one’s own, father’s, or mother’s country of birth.

Own Generational History (first, second, or deeper rooted Australian) (more detailed version). In our Cox proportional hazard regressions we use a more detailed variation of the previously described variable. The definition for second and deeper rooted Australian remains the same as before. But, we now distinguish first generation Australians by the number of years since they first came to Australia to live: 0-4 years, 5-14 years, and 15 or more years. To do this we use the question from the person questionnaire: ‘In what year did you first come to Australia to live for 6 months or more (even if you have spent time abroad since)?’ Data on this question is usually available from everyone that answered the question about their country of birth. For each year, we derive the number of years as the current survey year minus the year a person first came to Australia to live for six months or more.

This categorical variable changes over time.

Own Partnership and Partners Generational History. To create this variable we first determine whether a person lives in the same household with a partner. If this is not the case we consider this person to be ‘Single’. For those that we consider as partnered, we create the generational variable ‘Own Generational History (first, second, or deeper rooted Australian)

(more detailed version)’ in the same way as described above. We set this variable to missing for all persons whose partner has missing values for ‘Own Generational History’. This categorical variable is time varying because a person’s relationship status can change over time.

Education. This categorical variable measures the highest educational attainment achieved by

2001. We use the derived HILDA variable labelled ‘Highest education level achieved’ and

4 recode it to three outcomes: 1) University degree; 2) High school but less than university degree; and 3) Less than a high school degree. Outcome 1 includes Bachelor’s or Honours degrees, graduate diplomas or graduate certificates, and postgraduate degrees such as

Master’s degrees or doctorates. Outcome 2 includes Year 12 education, Certificate III or IV, and diplomas or advanced diplomas. Outcome 3 is Year 11 education or below. This variable is only asked on the person questionnaire. Hence if we made this a time-varying variable we would not only lose those who did not answer this question in 2001 but also those who did so but failed to respond thereafter. To minimise this loss we use the 2001 response for the whole period (2001-2011). Hence this variable is fixed at its 2001 value.

Employment status. This variable is 1 if a person is currently not employed (unemployed or not in the labour force) and 0 otherwise—if the person is currently working full-time or part- time. We determine the current employment status from two sources: the person questionnaire and the household (form) questionnaire.

The person directly answers the question ‘At any time at all during the last 7 days, did you do any work in a job, business or farm?’ in the person questionnaire. HILDA derives the variable labelled ‘Labour force status–broad’ from this and other relevant questions. We recode this derived variable to ‘Employed’ (0) and ‘Not employed’ (1).

Someone else in the household may answer the following question from the household (form) questionnaire about a particular person: ‘what is …’s current employment status?’ where ‘…’ is that person’s name. HILDA labels this variable ‘Employment status on Household Form, answered by one person in Household’. We recode the responses ‘Employed–usually works

35+ hours per week’ and ‘Employed–usually works less than 35 hours per week’ to

‘Employed’ (0) and any other non-missing responses to ‘Not employed’ (1). This question is missing on the 2002 household questionnaire. So, we use the HILDA variable labelled

5 ‘Household Form labour force status–broad [imputed]’ (for a description of the imputation method, see Hayes and Watson, 2009).

We use employment status based on the person questionnaire whenever possible since we believe it is a better quality response. If our preferred employment status is missing—for example, if a person is not participating in the person interviews—we use the employment status based on the household form. This minimizes observation loss. Since employment status is time varying we require this variable to be non-missing in every year. Hence using the employment status based on the household form when the person questionnaire is missing avoids censored observations in our hazard models.

Log of Household Income. To create this variable we adjust the HILDA variable ‘Household financial year disposable regular income ($) [imputed]’ for household size by dividing by the square root of the number of household members (for a description of the imputation method, see Hayes and Watson 2009). This income measure is then deflated to 2000-01 Australian dollars using the annual CPI for Australia (ABS 2014a). It is then transformed into logarithmic form which causes negative values to be set to missing. This is a time-varying variable.

Age. This variable is a person’s current age in years. This is a time-varying variable.

Female. This variable is 1 if a person is female and 0 otherwise. This is a fixed variable.

Children aged 0-4. This variable is 1 if a person’s own, adopted, step, or foster children aged

0 to 4 years reside in the same household; and 0 otherwise. This is a time-varying variable.

Children aged 5-17. This variable is 1 if a person’s own, adopted, step, or foster children aged 5 to 17 years reside in the same household; and 0 otherwise. This is a time-varying variable.

6 Samples used in tables

Table A2 describes the sample restriction criteria we use to define our samples for Tables 3-4 and Figure 1 and Appendix Tables A3-A6. The table lists the number of person-year observations, persons, and observed exits. It shows how these numbers decrease when we include various variables to our models and when we use different weights.

The top panel of Table A2 shows how we determine the samples for Table 3 and Table A3.

Table A3 is an extended version of Table 3. The numbers in Table 3 are the same as the numbers of Table A3–Panel B. If we restrict our sample to those that resided in Australia in

2001, our sample contains 19,550 persons and 696 exits. This sample includes all ages. It decreases because of missing values in the variable Own Generation History. It decreases even more when we use population weights. A large loss occurs when we use the 2001-2013 longitudinal weight for respondents.

The middle panel of Table A2 shows how we determine the samples for Tables 3, 4, A5, and

A6. We first restrict our sample to those aged 25-54 who resided in Australia in 2001. This sample contains 8,503 persons and 291 exits. Our final sample which we use in Tables 3, 4, and A5 contains 7,650 persons and 215 exits. This loss of sample size is due to missing values in the variables listed in the middle panel.

The middle panel of Table A2 also shows how the sample further decreases when we exclude persons born in New Zealand and person-year observations of persons that are partnered with someone born New Zealand. This sample containing 7,362 persons and 188 exits is used in

Table A6.

The bottom panel of Table A2 also shows how we determine the Table A4 sample. The numbers in Panel B of this table are used in the conclusion of the paper. When we restrict our sample to those aged 25-54 that resided in Australia in 2001, our sample contains 8,503

7 persons and 291 exits. This sample decreases because of missing values in the variable

Education. It decreases even more when we use population weights.

Robustness checks

Table A3 is an extended version of Table 3. It reports the risk of an exit for the total population by age and by Own Generational History. Panel B simply repeats the values in

Table 3. These are our preferred numbers. They are based on a sample weighted by the 2001

HILDA cross-sectional population weights for respondents. Panel A provides results when we use an unweighted sample. Panel C provides results when we use a sample that is weighted by the 2001-2013 HILDA longitudinal population weights for respondents.

The unweighted sample (Panel A) has the advantage of being larger (see Table A2) but the disadvantage of being less representative of the population. The longitudinally weighted sample (Panel C) has the advantage of improved representativeness of the population—it not only better represents the 2001 population but is also adjusted for panel attrition—but has the disadvantage of being much smaller (see Table A2). Our preferred sample, which is weighted by the 2001 cross-sectional respondent weight (Panel B), is a reasonable compromise. While the level of exit risk varies to some degree based on our choice of weights, the relative magnitudes of the results are approximately the same either across age or generation.

Table A4 reports the risk of exit for our aged 25-54 sample by Education. The numbers listed in Panel B are used in the conclusion of the text. Similar to Table A3, Panel A and Panel C show the effects of using alternative weights on the risk of exit. Once again while the level of exit risk varies to some degree based on our choice of weights, the relative magnitudes of the results are approximately the same across age and education.

Table A5 is an alternative version of Table 4. It reports the results of discrete proportional hazard models instead of (continuous) Cox proportional hazard models. The results of the discrete models are almost identical to the results of the continuous models of Table 4.

8 Table A6 is another alternative version of Table 4. It reports the results of Cox proportional hazard models using samples that exclude persons born in New Zealand and person-year observations of persons that are partnered with someone born in New Zealand. We suspected that persons born in New Zealand were more likely to move in and out of Australia than persons not born there. We wanted to see whether this would bias our regression results.

Excluding this group decreased our estimation sample (see Table A2) but did not substantively change the results found in Table 4.

Table A7 is another alternative version of Table 4. It reports the results of Cox proportional hazard models using one-year lags instead of current values for Employment Status and Log of Household Income.

Tables A9 to A17 are alternative tables for Tables 3 and 4 (as well as tabular versions of

Figure 1) of the main paper that show alternative numbers when, instead of using our preferred two-year threshold to determine long-term exits, we use a one-year, three-year, and four-year threshold.

Additional Table

Table A8 repeats Table 1 of the main paper but instead shows numbers for 2006-07 to 2010-

References

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2013a). Migration, Australia, 2011-12 and 2012-13 (ABS catalogue no. 3412.0). Accessed 14/04/2014.

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2013b). Deaths, Australia, 2012 (ABS catalogue no.

3302.0). Accessed 14/04/2014.

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2014a). Consumer price 1ndex, Australia, Mar 2014 (ABS catalogue no. 6401.0). Accessed 14/04/2014.

9 Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2014b). Australian demographic statistics, Sep 2013 (ABS catalogue no. 3101.0). Accessed 14/04/2014.

Hayes, C., & Watson, N. (2009). HILDA imputation methods. HILDA Project. Technical

Paper Series 2/09. Melbourne: Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social

Research, University of Melbourne.

10 Table A1: Interview response status in HILDA Interview response status In Australia Overseas Deceased Unknown Interview in person X Interviewed by telephone X Ineligible for interview Less than 15 years old at 30th of June X Overseas for more than 6 months X In prison X TSM no longer living with PSM X Refusal Too busy X Too invasive X Other reasons X Refusal via 1800 number/email X Interview terminated X Other non-interview Deceased X Language problem X Incapable/illness/infirmity X Home but unable to contact X Away for workload period X Household non-contact X Household contact made no interviews X Household not issued to field – persistent non- X respondent Overseas permanently X Household all PSMs non-responding in last 2 X waves Permanently incapable from previous wave X Household out of scope NFI (only wave 2) X Untraceable overseas X Overseas and aged < 15 X Untraceable from prior waves X Untraceable determined this wave X Source: Authors’ compilation based on HILDA manual (2013)

Notes: TSM=Temporary Sample Member. PSM=Permanent Sample Member. NFI=no further information.

11 Table A2: Samples used in Tables 3-4 and Appendix Tables A3-A6 Sample size Person-years Persons Exits Sample for Table 3 Located in Australia in 2001 (all ages) 176,513 19,550 696

Exclude persons with a zero Cross-sectional Weight in 2001 175,795 19,475 694 = Sample used for Column 1 in Table 3 and A3 (Total Persons)

Exclude persons with missing values in Own Generational History 155,156 16,797 575 = Sample used for Columns 2-4 in Table A3 – Panel A

Exclude persons with a zero population weight in the Cross-sectional Weight for Respondents in 2001 120,512 13,477 502 = Sample used for Columns 2-4 in Table 3 and Table A3 – Panel B Longitudinal Weight for Respondents (2001-2013) 80,029 7,798 319 = Sample used for Columns 2-4 in Table A3 – Panel C Sample for Tables 3, 4, A5, A6 Located in Australia in 2001 (aged 25-54 years) 77,305 8,503 291

Exclude persons with missing values in Own Generational History 75,083 8,082 263 Own Partnership and Partners Generational History 69,170 7,878 221 Education 67,270 7,653 216 Employment status 67,255 7,653 216 Log of Household income 66,930 7,650 215 Age, Gender, and Number of Children 66,930 7,650 215 = Sample used in Tables 3, 4 and A5

Exclude persons born in New Zealand 64,324 7,362 188 = Sample used in Table A6 Sample for Table A4 Located in Australia in 2001 (aged 25-54 years) 77,305 8,503 291

Exclude persons with a zero Cross-sectional Weight in 2001 = Sample used for Column 1 in Table A4 (Total Persons) 76,941 8,464 289

Exclude persons with missing values in Education = Sample used for Columns 2-4 in Table A4 – Panel A 73,441 7,905 254

Exclude persons with a zero population weight in the Cross-sectional Weight for Respondents in 2001 73,077 7,866 252 = Sample used for Columns 2-4 in Table A4 – Panel B Longitudinal Weight for Respondents (2001-2013) 49,115 4,615 169 = Sample used for Columns 2-4 in Table A4 – Panel C Source: Authors’ calculations based on HILDA (2001-2013)

12 Table A3: Extended Table 3: Australian Population by Age Cohorts in 2001 and the Number and Cumulative Risk of an Exit through 2011 by Generational Background

Age group Total Personsa First Generationb Second Generationb Deeper Rooted Generationsb Numberc Risk Numberd Risk Numberd Risk Numberd Risk (years) (million) (%) (million) (%) (million) (%) (million) (%) Panel A: Risk unweighted 0-14b 3.96 2.68 15-24 2.82 12.64 0.52 29.43 0.74 12.64 1.48 8.85 25-54 8.04 3.89 2.34 8.52 1.40 2.93 4.24 1.77 55 or over 3.99 1.20 1.31 2.99 0.56 0.00* 2.09 0.37* Total 18.82e 4.18

Panel B: Risk weighted by the 2001 cross-sectional population weights (our preferred numbers used in Table 3 of main paper) 0-14b 3.96 2.82 15-24 2.82 13.42 0.52 29.85 0.74 12.16 1.48 9.10 25-54 8.04 4.39 2.34 9.10 1.40 3.08 4.24 1.91 55 or over 3.99 1.68 1.31 4.35 0.56 0.00* 2.09 0.35* Total 18.82e 4.67

Panel C: Risk weighted by the 2001-2013 longitudinal population weights 0-14b 3.96 3.62 15-24 2.82 16.87 0.52 39.72 0.74 13.97 1.48 8.63 25-54 8.04 5.50 2.34 10.82 1.40 3.91 4.24 1.68 55 or over 3.99 2.33 1.31 5.21 0.56 0.00* 2.09 0.29* Total 18.82e 6.11 Source: Authors’ calculations based on HILDA (2001-2013) Notes: a Based on the full HILDA sample. b Excludes those persons whose generational background are unknown, hence numbers in these columns do not sum to Total Persons column numbers. c Based on the 2001 enumerated person weight. d Based on the 2001 responding person weight. e The total population using the HILDA weights does not match the number for 2001 in Table A7 as the HILDA wave 1 sample excluded very remote parts of Australia and people living in institutions. Further the number in Table A7 refers to June 2001, whereas the Table 3 number refers to September 2001. *Estimate is unreliable due to sample size.

13 Table A4: Australian Working-age Population (25-54) and the Number and Cumulative Risk of an Exit through 2011 by Education

Age group Total Personsa University degree b High school but less Less than high school than university educationb educationb Numberc Risk Numberd Risk Numberd Risk Numberd Risk (years) (million) (%) (million) (%) (million) (%) (million) (%) Panel A: Risk unweighted 25-54 8.04 3.89 2.02 7.20 3.58 3.37 2.71 1.45

Panel B: Risk weighted by the 2001 cross-sectional population weights (our preferred numbers used in conclusion of main paper) 25-54 8.04 4.39 2.02 8.20 3.58 3.65 2.71 1.66

Panel C: Risk weighted by the 2001-2013 longitudinal population weights 25-54 8.04 5.50 2.02 9.51 3.58 3.96 2.71 1.86 Source: Authors’ calculations based on HILDA (2001-2013) Notes: a Based on the full HILDA sample. b Excludes those persons whose education in 2001 is not known, hence numbers in these columns do not sum to Total Persons column numbers. c Based on the 2001 enumerated person weight. d Based on the 2001 responding person weight.

14 Table A5: Alternative Table 4: Alternative Hazard Models of an Exit for the Australian Population Aged 25-54 in 2001 (Discrete Proportional Hazard model)

Hazard ratios Full sample First Generation Second and Deeper Rooted Generations First Generation Australian (0-4 years) 10.37*** 6.29*** (2.93) (2.04) First Generation Australian (5-14 years) 3.76*** 2.00*** (0.76) (0.45) First Generation Australian (15 years) 2.23*** (0.41) Second Generation Australian 1.20 1.16 (0.24) (0.24) Deeper Rooted Generation Australian (Omitted)

Single (Omitted)

Partnered with First Generation Australian (0-4 years) 0.58 0.48 0.58 (0.24) (0.23) (0.60) Partnered with First Generation Australian (5-14 years) 0.94 0.75 1.15 (0.24) (0.24) (0.57) Partnered with First Generation Australian (15+ years) 0.63* 0.57 0.63 (0.16) (0.20) (0.25) Partnered with Second Generation Australian 0.31*** 0.30*** 0.32*** (0.09) (0.14) (0.13) Partnered with Deeper Rooted Generation Australian 0.34*** 0.32*** 0.40*** (0.08) (0.12) (0.12)

University degree 3.26*** 2.70*** 3.38*** (0.83) (0.98) (1.15) High-school but less than university education 1.73** 1.98** 1.27 (0.39) (0.64) (0.42) Less than high school education (Omitted)

Control Variables:

Not employed 1.95*** 2.09*** 1.60 (0.38) (0.55) (0.48) Employed (Omitted)

Log of equivalized household income 1.64*** 1.36 2.19*** (0.28) (0.28) (0.53) Age 0.92*** 0.94*** 0.90*** (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Female 0.78** 0.66** 0.89 (0.09) (0.11) (0.16) Children aged 0-4 years 0.58** 0.65 0.55 (0.16) (0.22) (0.22) Children aged 5-17 years 0.97 1.33 0.67 (0.20) (0.34) (0.23)

Number of Persons 7,650 1,912 5,738 Number of Leavers 215 113 102 Source: Authors’ calculations based on HILDA (2001-2013). The sample is not weighted.

Notes: Clustered (by household id) standard errors in parentheses. Coefficient estimates that statistically differ from zero are denoted by ***, **, and * for p-values ≤.01, ≤.05, and ≤.10 respectively.

15 Table A6: Alternative Table 4: Alternative Hazard Models of an Exit for the Australian Population Aged 25-54 in 2001 [Cox (Continuous) Proportional Hazard model] – excluding those born in New Zealand

Single (Omitted)

Partnered with First Generation Australian (0-4 years) 0.56 0.42 0.67 (0.26) (0.23) (0.68) Partnered with First Generation Australian (5-14 years) 0.73 0.56 0.87 (0.21) (0.20) (0.55) Partnered with First Generation Australian (15+ years) 0.51** 0.44** 0.54 (0.15) (0.18) (0.23) Partnered with Second Generation Australian 0.30*** 0.27** 0.32*** (0.09) (0.14) (0.13) Partnered with Deeper Rooted Generation Australian 0.36*** 0.38*** 0.40*** (0.09) (0.14) (0.12)

University degree 3.99*** 4.02*** 3.63*** (1.13) (1.88) (1.27) High-school but less than university education 1.93** 2.68** 1.34 (0.50) (1.18) (0.44) Less than high school education (Omitted)

Control Variables:

Not employed 1.85*** 1.85** 1.71* (0.37) (0.51) (0.51) Employed (Omitted)

Log of equivalized real household income 1.72*** 1.39 2.19*** (0.32) (0.32) (0.55) Age 0.92*** 0.94*** 0.90*** (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Female 0.79* 0.67** 0.87 (0.10) (0.13) (0.16) Children aged 0-4 years 0.58* 0.63 0.56 (0.18) (0.24) (0.23) Children aged 5-17 years 0.97 1.40 0.67 (0.22) (0.40) (0.23)

16 Table A7: Alternative Table 4: Alternative Hazard Models of an Exit for the Australian Population Aged 25-54 in 2001 [Cox (Continuous) Proportional Hazard model] – using one- year lags instead of current values for Employment Status and Log of Household Income

Single (Omitted)

Partnered with First Generation Australian (0-4 years) 0.91 0.75 0.88 (0.40) (0.38) (0.90) Partnered with First Generation Australian (5-14 years) 1.04 0.78 1.35 (0.30) (0.28) (0.74) Partnered with First Generation Australian (15+ years) 0.62* 0.46** 0.83 (0.17) (0.18) (0.34) Partnered with Second Generation Australian 0.33*** 0.30** 0.38** (0.10) (0.15) (0.16) Partnered with Deeper Rooted Generation Australian 0.32*** 0.24*** 0.42** (0.08) (0.11) (0.15)

University degree 3.70*** 2.81** 4.41*** (1.09) (1.22) (1.70) High-school but less than university education 2.04*** 2.31** 1.58 (0.54) (0.91) (0.59) Less than high school education (Omitted)

Control Variables:

Not employed (one-year lag) 1.57** 1.87** 1.16 (0.35) (0.55) (0.39) Employed (one-year lag) (Omitted)

Log of equivalized real household income (one-year lag) 1.44* 1.45* 1.40 (0.28) (0.33) (0.43) Age 0.92*** 0.94*** 0.90*** (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) Female 0.74** 0.65** 0.79 (0.09) (0.12) (0.16) Children aged 0-4 years 0.58* 0.69 0.48* (0.18) (0.27) (0.21) Children aged 5-17 years 1.03 1.48 0.67 (0.24) (0.42) (0.25)

17 Table A8: Components of Australian Population Yearly Growth (2006-2011a)

Births Deaths Natural Overseas Overseas Net Increaseb Arrivals Departures Overseas Migrationc 1,000 persons 1,000 persons All ages 437.4 204.7 232.7 2006-07 287.3 136.0 151.3 501.3 223.9 277.4 2007-08 295.2 140.7 154.4 519.8 219.9 299.8 2008-09 300.1 143.7 156.4 437.9 241.9 196.1 2009-10 304.0 141.5 162.5 431.8 251.4 180.4 2010-11 301.1 145.5 155.7

Ages 25-54 12.1d 221.0 116.7 104.3 2006-07 12.3d 249.1 123.8 125.3 2007-08 12.4d 255.6 120.8 134.9 2008-09 12.3d 219.1 135.5 83.6 2009-10 12.1d 221.0 140.7 80.3 2010-11 % of population stocke % of population stocke All ages 1.40 0.67 0.74 2.14 1.00 1.14 2006-07 1.42 0.68 0.74 2.41 1.08 1.33 2007-08 1.41 0.68 0.74 2.45 1.03 1.41 2008-09 1.40 0.65 0.75 2.02 1.12 0.90 2009-10 1.37 0.66 0.71 1.96 1.14 0.82 2010-11

Ages 25-54 0.14d 2.54 1.34 1.20 2006-07 0.14d 2.82 1.40 1.42 2007-08 0.14d 2.85 1.34 1.50 2008-09 0.13d 2.39 1.48 0.91 2009-10 0.13d 2.38 1.52 0.87 2010-11 Sources: The all ages statistics come from Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014b) with some authors’ adjustments. The ages 25-54 statistics come from ABS (2013a, 2013b, 2014b) with some authors’ adjustments. The author’s adjustments are discussed in the notes below. Notes: a Years in this table do not refer to calendar years but to Australian financial years which start on 1 July and end on 30 June. b This is births minus deaths. c This is overseas arrivals minus overseas departures where those who arrive (depart) remained in (out of) the country for 12 out of the next 16 months. d We approximated financial year deaths using the mean value of deaths reported in the two partly covered calendar years. (2013b).

18 e For all ages (those aged 25-54), the population stocks for 2006-07, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2009-10 and 2010-11 are 20,451.0 (8706.6), 20,827.6, (8830.9), 21,249.2 (8983.0), 21,691.7 (9154.5), and 22,031.8 (9278.5) [1,000 persons]. Because the population stock values are revised over time, by the ABS, but the flow numbers are not, the growth in the stock value each year will not exactly equal the sum of the flow values from the previous year.

19 Table A9: Alternative Table 3: Australian Population by Age Cohorts in 2001 and the Number and Cumulative Risk of an Exit through 2012 by Generational Background, using a 1-year definition of exits

Age group Total Personsa First Generationb Second Generationb Deeper Rooted Generationsb Numberc Risk Numberc Risk Numberc Risk Numberc Risk (years) (million) (%) (million) (%) (million) (%) (million) (%) 0-14b 3.96 4.65 15-24 2.82 19.44 0.52 39.58 0.74 17.56 1.48 14.42 25-54 8.04 6.10 2.34 12.13 1.40 4.32 4.24 3.00 55 or over 3.99 2.32 1.31 5.82 0.56 1.16* 2.09 0.45* Total 18.82 6.74 Source: Authors’ calculations based on HILDA (2001-2013) Notes: a Based on the full HILDA sample. b Excludes those persons whose generational background are unknown, hence numbers in these columns do not sum to Total Persons column numbers. c Based on 2001 HILDA cross-sectional weights. * Estimate is unreliable due to sample size.

20 Table A10: The Cumulative Survival and Yearly Hazard Rates of an Exit for the Australian Population Aged 25-54 in 2001 by Generational Background (Kaplan-Meier estimates), using a 1-year definition of exits

All Generations First Generation Second Deeper Rooted Generation Generations Years since 2001 Surviva Hazard Surviva Hazard Surviva Hazard Surviva Hazard l rate rate l rate rate l rate rate l rate rate 1 0.9938 0.0062 0.9851 0.0149 0.9941 0.0059 0.9974 0.0026 2 0.9881 0.0057 0.9737 0.0114 0.9868 0.0073 0.9947 0.0028 3 0.9832 0.0049 0.9634 0.0103 0.9834 0.0034 0.9915 0.0031 4 0.9788 0.0044 0.9520 0.0114 0.9790 0.0044 0.9899 0.0016 5 0.9746 0.0042 0.9439 0.0082 0.9746 0.0045 0.9874 0.0025 6 0.9708 0.0038 0.9356 0.0083 0.9746 0.0000 0.9843 0.0031 7 0.9681 0.0027 0.9298 0.0058 0.9746 0.0000 0.9820 0.0023 8 0.9660 0.0021 0.9246 0.0052 0.9736 0.0010 0.9808 0.0012 9 0.9631 0.0030 0.9180 0.0067 0.9707 0.0029 0.9793 0.0015 10 0.9583 0.0048 0.9090 0.0090 0.9678 0.0029 0.9757 0.0037 11 0.9568 0.0014 0.9059 0.0031 0.9658 0.0020 0.9750 0.0006 12 0.9550 0.0018 0.9036 0.0023 0.9648 0.0010 0.9731 0.0019

Permanent leavers 285 147 41 97 Censored persons 7364 1,765 1,325 4274 All persons 7,649 1,912 1,366 4,371 Source: Authors’ calculations based on HILDA (2001-2013). The sample is not weighted.

21 Table A11: Alternative Table 4: Alternative Hazard Models of an Exit for the Australian Population Aged 25-54 in 2001 (Cox Proportional Hazard model), using a 1-year definition of exits

Single (Omitted)

Partnered with First Generation Australian (0-4 years) 0.76 0.68 0.54 (0.28) (0.29) (0.55) Partnered with First Generation Australian (5-14 years) 1.09 0.79 1.81 (0.25) (0.24) (0.68) Partnered with First Generation Australian (15+ years) 0.79 0.72 0.77 (0.17) (0.20) (0.25) Partnered with Second Generation Australian 0.39*** 0.42** 0.37*** (0.10) (0.16) (0.13) Partnered with Deeper Rooted Generation Australian 0.43*** 0.34*** 0.50*** (0.08) (0.11) (0.13)

University degree 3.50*** 2.90*** 3.73*** (0.76) (0.92) (1.10) High school but less than university degree 1.84*** 1.97** 1.49 (0.36) (0.58) (0.40) Less than a high school degree(Omitted)

Control Variables:

Not employed 2.16*** 2.37*** 1.77** (0.35) (0.52) (0.45) Employed (Omitted)

Log of equalized real household income 1.47*** 1.29 1.75*** (0.21) (0.22) (0.38) Age 0.93*** 0.95*** 0.91*** (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Female 0.80** 0.70*** 0.89 (0.08) (0.10) (0.14) Children aged 0-4 years 0.62** 0.62 0.63 (0.15) (0.19) (0.20) Children aged 5-17 years 0.71* 0.86 0.58* (0.13) (0.19) (0.17)

Number of Persons 7,649 1,912 5,737 Number of Permanent Leavers 285 147 138 Source: Authors’ calculations based on HILDA (2001-2013). The sample is not weighted.

All Generations First Generation Second Deeper Rooted Generation Generations Years since 2001 Surviva Hazard Surviva Hazard Surviva Hazard Surviva Hazard l rate rate l rate rate l rate rate l rate rate 1 0.9942 0.0058 0.9867 0.0133 0.9941 0.0059 0.9974 0.0026 2 0.9904 0.0038 0.9764 0.0103 0.9908 0.0032 0.9962 0.0013 3 0.9869 0.0035 0.9687 0.0077 0.9883 0.0026 0.9941 0.0021 4 0.9834 0.0035 0.9594 0.0094 0.9848 0.0035 0.9930 0.0011 5 0.9806 0.0027 0.9539 0.0055 0.9821 0.0027 0.9913 0.0016 6 0.9790 0.0016 0.9518 0.0021 0.9821 0.0000 0.9894 0.0020 7 0.9780 0.0010 0.9489 0.0029 0.9812 0.0009 0.9891 0.0003 8 0.9768 0.0012 0.9467 0.0023 0.9802 0.0010 0.9882 0.0009 9 0.9747 0.0021 0.9415 0.0052 0.9793 0.0010 0.9870 0.0012 10 0.9720 0.0027 0.9377 0.0037 0.9773 0.0019 0.9845 0.0024

Permanent leavers 182 98 27 57 Censored persons 7,467 1,814 1,340 4313 All persons 7,649 1,912 1,367 4,370 Source: Authors’ calculations based on HILDA (2001-2013). The sample is not weighted.

Single (Omitted)

Partnered with First Generation Australian (0-4 years) 0.62 0.58 0.64 (0.25) (0.26) (0.66) Partnered with First Generation Australian (5-14 years) 0.86 0.76 0.89 (0.24) (0.27) (0.48) Partnered with First Generation Australian (15+ years) 0.60* 0.69 0.33** (0.16) (0.24) (0.17) Partnered with Second Generation Australian 0.23*** 0.23** 0.21*** (0.08) (0.13) (0.10) Partnered with Deeper Rooted Generation Australian 0.34*** 0.31*** 0.35*** (0.08) (0.12) (0.11)

University degree 2.99*** 2.49** 2.95*** (0.80) (0.91) (1.14) High school but less than university degree 1.75** 1.94** 1.26 (0.42) (0.64) (0.44) Less than a high school degree(Omitted)

Control Variables:

Not employed 1.74*** 1.82** 1.45 (0.36) (0.49) (0.48) Employed (Omitted)

Log of equalized real household income 1.46** 1.11 2.39*** (0.25) (0.18) (0.66) Age 0.92*** 0.94*** 0.90*** (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) Female 0.79* 0.70** 0.88 (0.10) (0.12) (0.18) Children aged 0-4 years 0.67 0.59 0.84 (0.19) (0.21) (0.33) Children aged 5-17 years 0.99 1.15 0.85 (0.22) (0.31) (0.31)

All Generations First Generation Second Deeper Rooted Generation Generations Years since 2001 Surviva Hazard Surviva Hazard Surviva Hazard Surviva Hazard l rate rate l rate rate l rate rate l rate rate 1 0.9942 0.0058 0.9867 0.0133 0.9941 0.0059 0.9974 0.0026 2 0.9908 0.0033 0.9777 0.0090 0.9917 0.0024 0.9962 0.0013 3 0.9873 0.0035 0.9699 0.0077 0.9891 0.0026 0.9941 0.0021 4 0.9838 0.0035 0.9605 0.0094 0.9856 0.0035 0.9930 0.0011 5 0.9814 0.0024 0.9558 0.0048 0.9829 0.0027 0.9916 0.0014 6 0.9799 0.0015 0.9537 0.0021 0.9829 0.0000 0.9899 0.0017 7 0.9789 0.0010 0.9508 0.0029 0.9820 0.0009 0.9896 0.0003 8 0.9784 0.0005 0.9493 0.0015 0.9810 0.0010 0.9896 0.0000 9 0.9765 0.0019 0.9448 0.0045 0.9801 0.0010 0.9884 0.0012

Permanent leavers 156 88 24 44 Censored persons 7,491 1,824 1,342 4,325 All persons 7,647 1,912 1,366 4,369 Source: Authors’ calculations based on HILDA (2001-2013). The sample is not weighted.

Single (Omitted)

Partnered with First Generation Australian (0-4 years) 0.62 0.53 0.78 (0.26) (0.24) (0.81) Partnered with First Generation Australian (5-14 years) 0.75 0.57 1.27 (0.23) (0.22) (0.67) Partnered with First Generation Australian (15+ years) 0.56** 0.54 0.45 (0.17) (0.21) (0.22) Partnered with Second Generation Australian 0.27*** 0.23** 0.29*** (0.09) (0.13) (0.13) Partnered with Deeper Rooted Generation Australian 0.28*** 0.28*** 0.31*** (0.08) (0.12) (0.11)

University degree 3.01*** 2.28** 3.27*** (0.86) (0.85) (1.39) High school but less than university degree 1.49 1.65 1.00 (0.38) (0.55) (0.40) Less than a high school degree(Omitted)

Control Variables:

Not employed 1.71** 1.93** 1.21 (0.40) (0.55) (0.50) Employed (Omitted)

Log of equalized real household income 1.38* 1.14 1.95** (0.25) (0.20) (0.63) Age 0.92*** 0.94*** 0.91*** (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) Female 0.73** 0.66** 0.76 (0.10) (0.12) (0.17) Children aged 0-4 years 0.59* 0.57 0.66 (0.19) (0.21) (0.30) Children aged 5-17 years 1.11 1.43 0.79 (0.25) (0.39) (0.31)