1. Teaching Intelligence from a Student S Perspective 5

Contents

INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR INTELLIGENCE EDUCATION Fifth Annual Conference-“Teaching Intelligence” May 26 – 28, 2009 University of Maryland University College

Schedule

Tuesday, May 26

3:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. IAFIE Board Meeting Room: 1105

Conference Registration Room: Main Concourse

Wednesday, May 27

7:30 a.m. – 9:00 a.m. Registration Room: Main Concourse

Continental Breakfast

Room: Thai House

Technology Exhibits Room: 1105

9:00 a.m. – 10:15 a.m. Conference Opening Room: Auditorium

Welcome: IAFIE Chairman Thomas Carr Dr. Susan Aldridge, President, University of Maryland University College

4 Speaker: Michael “Mike” McConnell, Senior Vice President, Booz Allen Hamilton, former Director of National Intelligence

10:15 a.m. - 10:30 a.m. Break

10:30 a.m. – 11:00 a.m. IAFIE Teaching Award Speaker: Dr. James Holden-Rhodes, Air Force Research Laboratory Room: Auditorium

11:00 a.m. –12:00 noon Teaching Intelligence Culture Room: Auditorium

Dr. Mark Lowenthal and Jeff Cooper (author, Curing Analytic Pathologies,2005) Personnel entering the intelligence field are often drawn by thoughts of spies (or cops and robbers), intrigue and international travel. But there is more to the culture of intelligence than these exciting aspects. This panel will discuss the importance of proper orientation and understanding of the intelligence process and the environment in which it operates as someone enters the field.

12:00 noon – 1:30 p.m. Lunch Room: Chesapeake

Speaker: The Honorable Edwin Meese Presentation to Essay Award Winners: Dr. Edna Reid, Patrick John Reyes Ramos, and Michael Cohen

Concurrent Breakout Sessions (Conference Center floor plan provided on page 49)

1:30 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. 1. Teaching Intelligence from a Student’s Perspective Room: 1123

2. Intelligence Instructor Competencies Room: Auditorium

5 3. Authors’ Roundtable Room: 2100

3:00 p.m. – 3:15 p.m. Break

3:15 p.m. – 4:45p.m. 1. Teaching Intelligence through Discovery Room: 1123

2. Teaching Intelligence Online Room: 2100

3. Teaching Structured Techniques Room: Auditorium

4:45 p.m. – 6:15p.m. Business Meeting Room: Auditorium

7:00 p.m. Dinner hosted by American Military University Room: Chesapeake

Speaker: Francois Mathieu, Criminal Intelligence Training Director, Royal Canadian Mounted Police

Thursday, May 28

7:30 a.m. – 9:00 a.m. Continental Breakfast

Room: Thai House

9:00 a.m. – 10:30 a.m. 1. Teaching Critical Thinking Room: Auditorium

2. Teaching Competitive Intelligence Room: 1123

3. Teaching Law Enforcement Intelligence Room: 2100

10:30 a.m. – 10:45 a.m. Break

10:45 a.m. – 12:15p.m. 1. Teaching Structured Techniques (#2) Room: 2100

2. Teaching Intelligence Technologies Room: 1123

6 3. Teaching Critical Thinking (#2) Room: Auditorium

12:15 p.m. – 1:30 p.m. Lunch Room: Chesapeake

1:30 p.m. – 2:45 p.m. 1. Teaching Law Enforcement Intelligence (#2) Room: 2100

2. Teaching Military Intelligence Room: Auditorium

3. Teaching Intelligence Technologies (#2) Room: 1123 2:45 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. Break

3:00 p.m. – 4:30 p.m. 1. Teaching Predictive Intelligence Room: Auditorium

2. Core Competencies for Analysts Room: 2100

3. Teaching Intelligence Through Discovery (#2) Room: 1123

4:30p.m. – 5:00p.m. Wrap up/Adjournment

Room: Auditorium

Note: Exhibits will be open throughout the conference.

Snack foods and drinks are available from 7:30 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. each day.

7 Breakout Sessions

1. Teaching Intelligence from a Student’s Perspective What do students want and expect from an intelligence program? Students from varied programs will share their candid expectations and responses to the programs in which they are enrolled.

Moderator: Dr. Edna Reid, Clarion University Speakers: Derek Chris, Mercyhurst College; Jordan Moneski, UMUC; Jamie Schork-Morency, American Military University

2. Intelligence Instructor Competencies What makes a great intelligence instructor? How important are presentation skills vs area expertise? What role should continuing education play in educators’ lives? What impact do student evaluations have?

Moderator: Dr. Greg Moore, Notre Dame College Speakers: Reese Madsen, the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Intelligence); Denise Stepanik, Defense Intelligence Agency; Dr. David Gray, Fayetteville State University

3. Authors’ Roundtable Authors of noted books in the intelligence field will be on hand to allow you to examine their books, ask questions and consider the books’ adoption.

Moderator: William Spracher, National Defense Intelligence College Authors: Dr. Mark Lowenthal – Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy Don McDowell – Strategic Intelligence: A Handbook for Practitioners, Managers and Users Randy Pherson – Handbook of Analytic Tools and Techniques Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis (with Richards Heuer, Jr. - forthcoming) Dr. James Bruce – Analyzing Intelligence Origins, Obstacles and Innovations (with Roger Z. George) Dr. Robert Clark – Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach Technical Collection of Intelligence (forthcoming) Chris Westphal – Data Mining for Intelligence, Fraud, and Criminal Detection NDIC Press – Finding Leaders: Preparing the Intelligence Community for Succession Management by E.L. Hatfield; Registering the Human Terrain: A Valuation of Cadastre by Douglas E. Batson; Intelligence Strategy: New Challenges and

8 Opportunities, Proceedings of Conference hosted jointly by NDIC and ODNI, edited by William C. Spracher

4. Teaching Intelligence through Discovery Adults learn best through doing; thus several schools have developed hands-on practical exercises and case studies that put the learning in the hands of the students. How effective this is and what pitfalls may occur will be discussed.

Moderator: Robert Heibel, Mercyhurst College Speakers: James Bruce, Rand Corporation; Thomas Shreeve, Thomas W. Shreeve & Associates; Dr. Thomas LaHann, SAIC

5. Teaching Intelligence Online Even brick and mortar schools are putting more of their student interactions online to save classroom space and adapt to the student-preferred medium of the Internet. The particular challenges of teaching intelligence online are explored by this set of experts.

Moderator: Stephen Fowler, CINTT Corporation Speakers: Dr. William Sondervan, UMUC; David Jimenez, American Military University; Dr. Barry Zulauf, Mercyhurst College

6. Teaching Structured Analytic Techniques Structured analytic techniques are the core methods used in analysis whether it is in law enforcement, international security or competitive intelligence. Teaching these core techniques are discussed by this panel of educators.

Moderator: Kathy Pherson, Pherson Associates Speakers: Randy Dietering, SAIC; Randy Pherson, Pherson Associates; Grey Burkhart, DIA/Booz Allen Hamilton

7. Teaching Critical Thinking Critical thinking has become key to intelligence education as people have realized we must harness the power of our minds while being aware of our biases, mindsets and assumptions. This panel discusses their views of teaching critical thinking.

Moderator: Ken Stringer, Booz Allen Hamilton Speakers: Dr. Noel Hendrickson, James Madison University; David Moore, NSA; Dr. Tim Walton, Consultant

8. Teaching Competitive Intelligence Competitive or Business Intelligence extends beyond the realm of corporate espionage to incorporate the use of data to support strategic edge development and policy. This panel discusses how CI is taught and how it has become key to effective business management.

Moderator: Marco Monsalve, McManis & Monsalve Associates

9 Speakers: Mike Ryan, GWU Law School; LTG James Dubik, US Army; Suki Fuller, Consultant

9. Teaching Law Enforcement Intelligence Law enforcement intelligence has been taught since the 1970s, focusing on analysis for case support, often to the exclusion of strategic analysis. Three law enforcement instructors will discuss their preferred teaching methods and topics.

Moderator: Glenn Fueston, Washington/Baltimore HIDTA Speakers: Don McDowell, Intelligence Study Centre (Australia); Mark “Clint” Goodwin; David Grabelski, Mercyhurst College

10. Teaching Intelligence Technologies Intelligence tools have become standard in most analysts’ lives, from basic word processing to complex data mining and networking software. How these can be adapted and taught in a variety of settings is explored in this panel.

Moderator: Robert A. Smith, ProtectionMetrics, LLC Speakers: Chris Westphal, Visual Analytics; Steve Casto, i2; TBD

11. Teaching Military Intelligence Military intelligence is not an oxymoron in today’s environment. Is military intelligence any different from national security intelligence? What special considerations/methods/cultural issues must be taught in the military framework? Moderator: LCDR Michael Bennett, US Coast Guard Academy Speakers: Major John Mowchan, US Army War College; LCDR Todd Wiggen, US Coast Guard Intelligence Training Center; Colonel Eric M. Walters, US Marine Corps

12. Teaching Predictive Intelligence Forecasting and warning have always played a role in intelligence, for all aspects of the field. Foreknowledge is a key goal in many situations. How successful are we in predicting and teaching how to predict or warn?

Moderator: Don McDowell, Intelligence Study Centre (Australia) Speakers: John McCreary, Air Force; Dr. Jonathan Lockwood, American Military University; Dr. John Bodnar, SAIC 13. Core Competencies for Analysts What attributes and skills should intelligence analysts or officers have and how do we encourage them in the education process? Core competencies have been developed in varying areas and these speakers will talk to them. Moderator: Eileen Hurley, Pherson Associates

10 Speakers: Reese Madsen, the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Intelligence); Dr. Michael Collier, Eastern Kentucky State University; Shelagh Dorn, NY State Police/IALEIA

11 Keynote Speakers

Michael “Mike” McConnell

Mike McConnell is a Senior Vice President, Booz Allen Hamilton and former Director of National Intelligence (2007 - 2009). McConnell has an illustrious record of government service. He previously served as Director of the National Security Agency (1992 - 1996) under Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton. A Vietnam veteran, he served a total of 29 years in the Navy retiring in 1996 as a Vice Admiral.

Upon his retirement from the Navy, he joined Booz Allen where he attained the position of senior vice president, and departed in 2006 when asked by President George W. Bush to become the Director of National Intelligence. President Obama has asked McConnell to continue to serve by accepting a position on his President’s Intelligence Advisory Board (PIAB), the Board which advises the President on all matters related to intelligence.

During Desert Shield/Storm and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, McConnell worked as the Intelligence Officer (J2) for the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Secretary of Defense.

He holds a Master's of Public Administration from George Washington University and is a graduate of the National Defense University and the National Defense Intelligence College, and holds a bachelor's degree in economics from Furman University.

Honorable Edwin Meese III

Edwin Meese is a distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution. He served as the seventy-fifth attorney general of the United States from February 1985 to August 1988.

Meese is an expert on the U.S. legal system, law enforcement and criminal justice, intelligence and national security, and the Reagan presidency. His current research focuses on the criminal justice system, federalism, emergency response management, and terrorism. Meese is also a distinguished fellow and holder of the Ronald Reagan Chair in Public Policy at the Heritage Foundation; a member of the Board of Regents of the National College of District Attorney; distinguished senior fellow, Institute for United States Studies, University of London; and a member of the boards of directors of both the Capital Research Center and the Landmark Legal Foundation. Before serving as U.S. attorney general, he was counselor to the president from 1981 to 1985. In this capacity he functioned as the president's chief policy adviser and had management responsibility for the administration of the cabinet, policy development, and planning and evaluation. During the time he

12 held both these positions, Meese was a member of the president's cabinet and the National Security Council. Formerly, he served as Governor Reagan's executive assistant and chief of staff in California from 1969 through 1974 and as legal affairs secretary from 1967 through 1968. Before joining Governor Reagans staff in 1967, Meese served as deputy district attorney of Alameda County, California. From 1977 to 1981, Meese was a professor of law at the University of San Diego, where he was also director of the Center for Criminal Justice Policy and Management. Meese is a graduate of Yale University (1953) and holds a law degree from the University of California at Berkeley.

Francois Mathieu

Director, Research & Development, Criminal Intelligence, Royal Canadian Mounted Police. Mr. Mathieu has been a civilian member of the RCMP for 20 years. He first worked in Drug Enforcement before transferring to Criminal Intelligence in 1991. In Criminal Intelligence, Mr. Mathieu has focused on various aspects of drug trafficking, money laundering and organized crime related corruption. In 1999, Mr. Mathieu became the officer in charge of the Criminal Analysis Branch in Criminal Intelligence. In 2005, Mr. Mathieu took over the responsibilities of the officer in charge, National Priorities & Special Intelligence Projects. Since late 2008, Mr. Mathieu has been the director of Research & Development in Criminal Intelligence. In his current functions, he oversees the continued development of criminal intelligence in the RCMP, including training for intelligence analysts and officers. Mr. Mathieu obtained a B.A. and an M.A. in history at Laval University.

13 Speaker/Moderator Biographies

Susan Aldridge (Dr.) - President, University of Maryland University College. In three years at UMUC she has expanded the university’s global outreach and presence, added new academic programs, increased its enrollments, strengthened its infrastructure and streamlined its business operation. Dr. Aldridge was one of 11 university presidents appointed by the American Association of State Colleges and Universities to study how the United States can improve its system for higher education. She serves on numerous national boards and committees, including the Microsoft Advisory Council for Education Products. She received her doctorate and master’s degrees from the University of Colorado and her bachelor’s degree from Colorado Women’s College. Thomas Carr - Director of the Washington/Baltimore High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area (HIDTA) Program since 1994. He is the Executive Director of the University of Maryland’s Public Safety Training and Technical Assistance Program. Formerly, he served as Chief (Lt. Colonel) of the Maryland State Police Bureau of Drug Enforcement and Commander of the Criminal Investigations Division. He is the principal investigator on an annual grant of approximately $4.5 million from the State of Maryland, Department of Public Safety and Correctional Services that focuses on the conversion of mainframe technology to distributed databases and a $13.5 million grant that funds the Washington/Baltimore High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area program. In addition, Mr. Carr develops antiterrorism curriculum and provides training for the Department of State, Office of Antiterrorism Assistance. He has taught antiterrorism courses in Macedonia, Peru, Thailand, Hungary, St. Kitts, and El Salvador. In 2007, Mr. Carr was elected vice-chair of the International Association for Intelligence Education he became chairman of IAFIE for 2008-2009. Mr. Carr has a degree in History from Towson State University and attended the Maryland State Police Academy, the FBI National Academy, the DEA Drug Commander’s School and the Federal Executive Institute. Michael Bennett (LCDR) - is currently Director and Assistant Professor of Strategic Intelligence Studies at the United States Coast Guard Academy in New London, CT where he teaches courses in Strategic Intelligence, National Security Policy, Terrorism, and Analysis. He is a 1998 graduate of Webster University in St. Louis, MO where he earned a Bachelor of Arts Degree in Political Science and Environmental Science, and a 2003 graduate of the Joint Military Intelligence College where he was awarded the Master of Science in Strategic Intelligence (MSSI). He was recently selected as the 2009-2010 Director’s Fellow at the National Security Agency and was accepted into the Doctoral Program at Virginia Tech’s School for Public and International Affairs beginning in the Fall of 2009. John Bodnar (Dr.) - is a biological warfare analyst for SAIC. A 1970 Naval Academy graduate, he served first on nuclear submarines then in the reserves as an S&T analyst and war-game umpire until retiring as a Captain. As a PhD molecular biologist with twenty years experience studying viruses and developing bioinformatics methodologies, he has spent the last eight years has supported several government agencies on

14 biological warfare projects and development of new analytical methodologies. He is the author of Warning Analysis in the Information Age (JMIC). James Bruce (Dr.) - is a Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation. Both an intelligence practitioner and teacher, he retired from CIA after nearly 24 years. He served in the National Intelligence Council, CIA’s Directorate of Intelligence, the Sherman Kent School for Intelligence Analysis, and was Chief of Training at the Counterintelligence Center. He is presently an adjunct professor at Georgetown and Columbia Universities where he has taught four different graduate courses. Grey Burkhart - program manager for intelligence training and an intelligence analysis instructor at the Joint Military Intelligence Training Center. He served as a Navy intelligence officer, the chief executive of a consulting engineering firm, and as the Chief Operating Officer of two media companies. As a career intelligence officer, Burkhart's 30 years of professional experience and has contributed to a broad range of intelligence-related activities since he joined Booz Allen Hamilton in 2001. He is an authority on the global proliferation of information and communications technologies (ICT). His most recent book, co-authored with Susan Older, is The Information Revolution in the Middle East and North Africa. Burkhart holds a B.S. degree from Illinois Institute of Technology and a master's degree from the University of Southern California. Steve Casto - Assistant Vice President, i2 Inc. Previously served for over 30 years with the U.S. Department of Justice, Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). At the time of his retirement, he served as the Chief of Investigative Intelligence at the Special Operations Division. Some of the other Intelligence positions held by Mr. Casto include serving as the Chief of International Investigative Intelligence at DEA Headquarters; leading DEA’s Intelligence Response Team to Southwest Asia after 9/11; an assignment as an Inspector in the Office of Inspections; and six years as an Intelligence Group Supervisor in the Washington-Baltimore HIDTA where he worked closely with HIDTA Director and IAFIE Chair Thomas Carr. He also served three years in the U.S. Army, Military Intelligence, including a tour of duty in Vietnam. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Criminal Justice from the University of Maryland – University College. Derek Chris - Master’s Student, Mercyhurst College. Intelligence Specialist, US Navy Reserves, Office of Naval Intelligence (2005-2008); Ballistics Specialist / Test Engineer – University of Alabama in Huntsville (2004-2007). Won the 2006 Harry S. Truman Foundation Scholarship. Awarded the Armed Forces Expeditionary Medal for military service in the Persian Gulf. B.A. Political Science, University of Alabama in Huntsville, 2007. Robert Clark (Dr.) - former CIA Analyst and current consultant and author. Wrote Estimates and Prediction and Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach (now in 2nd edition). Forthcoming book is Technical Collection for Intelligence. Retired as a Lt. Col. From the Air Force; flew in Vietnam. Has a S.B. from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a Ph.D. in Engineering from the University of Illinois and a J.D. from George Washington University.

15 Michael Collier (Dr.) - teaches Homeland Security and Intelligence Studies in the Eastern Kentucky University College of Justice and Safety. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from Florida International University (2000), an M.S. in Strategic Intelligence from the Defense Intelligence College (1986), and a B.S. from the U.S. Coast Guard Academy (1974). In a 22-year U.S. Coast Guard career, he was a specialist in deepwater cutter operations and a sub-specialist in law enforcement and military intelligence. Jeffrey Cooper - Vice President for Technology, SAIC Technical Fellow, and Chief Innovation Officer in the Intelligence, Security and Technology Group at Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC). He received his undergraduate and graduate education at The Johns Hopkins University. Mr. Cooper‘s recent focus has been largely on intelligence matters, with particular emphasis on analytic failures and methods to improve all-source analysis capabilities. He wrote “Curing Analytic Pathologies” published by CIA’s Center for the Study of Intelligence in December 2005. Randy Dietering - Lead Instructor for the DNI “Analysis 101” course. He served more than three decades as a national security and intelligence professional, with half of his career on the White House staff. Mr. Deitering served four consecutive Presidents during his 15 years with the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (PFIAB), The White House (1987-2003). He received his White House Commission (Presidential appointment) as PFIAB Executive Director in 1998, having served as Acting Executive Director since 1995. He also was Deputy Executive Director and an Assistant Director of the Board. Mr. Deitering retired from CIA as a SIS-4 in 2006, after serving as Senior Officer-in-Residence, University of South Carolina Honors College. He has an MA in politics from New York University. Shelagh Dorn - Senior Supervising Intelligence Analyst, New York State Intelligence Center, six years and the last sixteen years working in/with law enforcement. She studied Sociology at Cornell University (BA) and Criminal Justice at the University at Albany (MA; PhD in progress). A member of IALEIA’s Foundations of Intelligence Analysis Training (FIAT) Coordinating Committee and a FIAT instructor, she frequently participates in designing and revising state and national intelligence training curricula. James M. Dubik (Lieutenant General) - Commanding General, Multi National Security Transition Command – Iraq. Previously, LTG Dubik was the Commanding General of I Corps and Ft. Lewis. He commanded US and Multi-national forces in northern Haiti during Operation Uphold Democracy. He served as Assistant Division Commander for Multinational Division (North) Operation Joint Forge, Bosnia-Herzegovina; Deputy Commanding General for Transformation, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, Fort Lewis, Washington, and Commanding General of the 25th Infantry Division (Light), Schofield Barracks, Hawaii from 2000 to 2002. LTG Dubik has attended United States Army Command and General Staff College and Senior Service College Fellowship. He completed the Advanced Operations Studies Fellowship, Fort Leavenworth and Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government’s executive program for national and international security. He holds a Bachelor’s of Arts degree in Philosophy from Gannon University, a Master’s of Arts degree in Philosophy from Johns Hopkins University and a Master of Military Arts and Sciences Degree from the United States Army Command and General Staff College. His awards include the Distinguished Service Medal, Defense Superior Service Medal, four awards of the Legion of Merit, five awards of the Meritorious Service Medal, and numerous Army Commendation and Achievement Medals.

16 Stephen Fowler - served 20 years in the US Army in various strategic, operational and tactical intelligence assignments and deployments in Korea, Japan, Haiti, Honduras, Malaysia, Philippines, and the United States. He has a Masters of International Management from the Thunderbird School of Global Management in Glendale, Arizona and BA in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley. For the past eight years he has taught undergraduate distance learning courses on intelligence subjects for the American Military University. He is currently the Director of Education and Training for CINTT Corp. where he designed an intelligence analyst development program Glenn Fueston - assumed leadership of the Investigative Support Center (ISC) at the Washington/Baltimore HIDTA in March of 2005. The ISC has four core intelligence functions: deconfliction, analytical case support, issuing threat assessments, development and dissemination of special assessments, bulletins, and alerts. He earned two B.A. degrees from Salisbury University and an MS from Towson University. Suki Fuller - a competitive intelligence consultant located in Northern New Jersey. She has been an active Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals (SCIP) member since 2002 and currently serves as Chair of the Membership Advisory Committee and is a member of the 2009 Conference Planning Committee. She holds a BA in Intelligence Studies from Mercyhurst College, an MBA from Centenary College, and is pursuing an MGIS from Penn State. Her most recent "linear" position was as a full-time research analyst at a pharmaceutical consulting company, in New Jersey's pharma alley. Today Suki is teaching various companies to understand how social media tools can improve their ability to gather information and produce actionable intelligence. Her CI specialties include social network analysis, geographic analysis, and human intelligence collection. Her micro-blog can be found at: http://twitter.com/SukiFuller David Grabelski - Under Graduate Program Director of the Mercyhurst College’s Department of Intelligence Studies and as an Assistant Professor. He holds a B.S. from Pennsylvania State University and a M.A. from Pepperdine University. He specializes in law enforcement intelligence and is a former instructor with the US Department of Justice / National Drug Intelligence Center. He has also served with the Los Angeles Police Department as a Senior Homicide Detective and Gang Unit Supervisor. David Gray (Dr.) - associate professor at Fayetteville State University, specializes in U.S. and international security and strategic studies. Mark “Clint” Goodwin - intelligence professional with over 31 years experience supporting intelligence collection, analysis, production, and liaison tasking for several U.S. Intelligence Community members. He supported the National Security Agency and National Center for Medical Intelligence as an imagery analyst. While at the Defense Intelligence Agency he served as a senior intelligence analyst. He was assigned to the Federal Bureau of Investigation as a Liaison Officer supporting the FBI’s National Joint Terrorism Task Force and Counterterrorism Watch during 2003- 2004. Towards the later part of his military career, Mr. Goodwin instructed, coached, and mentored mid-level intelligence professionals enrolled in the National Defense Intelligence College (NDIC) Post Graduate Intelligence Program-Reserves (PGIP-R). Mr. Goodwin has accrued over 8000 hours of experience instructing leadership, technical, and operational subjects to both government and civilian persons. He is an expert training programs manager. Robert Heibel - a twenty-five year veteran of the FBI who served as its deputy chief of counterterrorism. He holds a Masters Degree from Georgetown University and is Executive Director of the Mercyhurst College Institute for Intelligence Studies and the developer of its Research/Intelligence

17 Analyst Program (R/IAP). Heibel also directs the institute’s Center for Information Research, Analysis and Training (CIRAT), a nonprofit organization. Heibel has served on the board of directors of several national intelligence associations and is a founder and chairman emeritus of the International Association for Intelligence Education. In 2001 the Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals presented him with its highest recognition, the Meritorious Award, and in 2006 he received a lifetime achievement award for his work in open-source intelligence. Noel Hendrickson (Dr.) - Director of the Institute for National Security Analysis INSA) and Assistant Professor of Information Analysis at James Madison University. He teaches courses in “Hypothesis Testing,” “Causal Analysis,” “Counterfactual Reasoning” and “Strategy Assessment”. He has a Ph.D. in Philosphy from the University of Wisconsin and is co-author of Rowan and Littlefield’s Handbook of Critical Thinking, 208; and authored Counterfactual Reasoning: A Basic Guide for Analysts, Strategists, and Decision-Makers, Army War College, 2008. Eileen Hurley - retired as a Supervisory Intelligence Research Specialist with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms & Explosives. She has extensive experience in intelligence collection, analysis, and production, with concentration on intelligence applications for law enforcement. She is an expert in nexus between national security intelligence and law enforcement. Ms. Hurley held responsible positions in counterintelligence, anti-smuggling, drug trafficking intelligence, strategic trade and arms control, commercial fraud, counter terrorism, illegal immigration and human smuggling. She is an accomplished practitioner in interagency coordination, horizontal integration, and international cooperation. Ms. Hurley received a MS in Internal Audit and a MBA from Marymount University.

David Jimenez - faculty member with American Military University and a Senior Intelligence Research Specialist for Immigration & Customs Enforcement, focusing on Southwest Border Violence and weapons smuggling. He is past Director of Training, Education, and Career Development for the International Association of Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysts (IALEIA), and is a USAF retiree. He has a B.S. in Management and Human Resources from Park College, and an M.A. in Human Resource Development from Webster University.

James LaHann (Dr.) - lead instructor and co-developer of the ODNI’s Analysis 101 course. He earned his Ph.D. in Pharmacology and Toxicology and is board certified in General Toxicology. An employee of SAIC, he continues to work within the Intelligence Community in the areas of emerging biological and chemical threat agents. Dr. LaHann has over 30 years of professional experience, including twenty years as a tenured member of the Pharmacy and Graduate faculty at Idaho State University and Washington State University. He has worked as a Science and Technology analyst and managed drug development projects in the pharmaceutical industry. Jonathan Lockwood (Dr.) - received his BA in History and Psychology from the University of Tampa in 1997, and the MA and PHD in International Affairs (Russian Area studies) from the University of Miami in 1978 and 1980 respectively. Active service as a 1LT in US Army Military Intelligence Corps in September 1980, and retired as a Colonel from the US Army Reserve in May 2007. He was selected as a 1992-93 Fellow in the Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) Exceptional Intelligence Analyst Program, during which he invented a predictive methodology now known as the Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP) (website at www.lamp-method.com). Following the completion of his DCI project in April 1993, Dr. Lockwood transferred to the USAR, where he served for nearly 12 years as a professor on the Reserve Faculty of the JMIC to teach the PGIP to Reserve Officers. Dr Lockwood was named Outstanding Faculty Member at the JMIC for both the

18 1996 and 1997 Summer Quarters, and was a finalist for the annual Robert Beland Memorial Award for Excellence in Teaching for three consecutive years from 1996-1998. He was appointed in July 2007 by Charlie Allen, (former Chief of Intelligence for DHS) to be the first DHS Faculty Chair at the National War College for a one-year detail. He has been a professor of Graduate Intelligence Studies with American Military University since 1995, and recently assumed duties as their Program Director for Graduate Intelligence and National Security Studies. Mark Lowenthal (Dr.) - President/CEO of the Intelligence & Security Academy, a national security education/consulting company. He has been the Assistant Director of Central Intelligence for Analysis and Production, Vice Chairman on the National Intelligence Council, staff director of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (104th Congress), and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for intelligence. His book, Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy (CQ Press, 4th ed., 2009), is the standard college/graduate school textbook on the subject. Reese Madsen, Jr., - Chief Learning Officer, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence. Responsible for development of policy, plans, programs and oversight of personnel, training, education and career development of civilian and military defense intelligence positions within the Department of Defense and its components and services. He is Chairman of the Intelligence Training and Education Board for the Intelligence Community which includes 30 schoolhouses, one college, and one Distributed Learning Program. Mr. Madsen was active duty military for 20 years; in his last position on duty he was Intelligence Workforce Manager for the U.S. Coast Guard. He has a Masters in Science in Management from the University of Maryland (University College) and has received numerous joint awards, DoD awards and Coast Guard awards including the Legion of Merit. John F. McCreary, Esq. - the Highly Qualified Subject Matter Expert for Analysis Transformation for the United States Air Force Intelligence Analysis Agency, he is a 38 year veteran of defense intelligence. He is the author of the internationally acclaimed, nightly news commentary, NightWatch™. He has taught strategic analysis and warning to the intelligence staffs of 32 countries. He created and taught the U.S. National Warning Course from 1983 to 1992. He has received dozens of commendations, citations, medals and awards from the Intelligence Community, the CIA and the DIA. In 2004 he received a Presidential Rank Award for Meritorious Service; the only DIA analyst to ever have received this award. His publications include The Latest Intelligence Crisis, with Richard A Posner, in Intelligence and National Security, Volume,23, Issue 3, 2008; Intelligence as Evidence, J2 monograph,1996; Analysis of Political Instability, J2 monograph, 1995; Warning Cycles, Studies in Intelligence, 1983. Don McDowell - consulting instructor. Don’s professional career in intelligence spans 45 years. He started his career with active military intelligence service abroad before moving into national security and government analytical fields. For more than two decades he has worked mainly in enforcement intelligence, specializing in strategic analysis, publishing widely and winning awards for this work. Don’s consulting work continues today taking him around the globe providing specialized intelligence training. Don was the founder of AIPIO (Australian Institute for Professional Intelligence Officers) and is a lifetime CCA (Certified Criminal Analyst).

John Mowchan (Maj. P) - career Military Intelligence officer in the United States Army. Over the last 18 years, he has served in various tactical, operational, and strategic-level assignments. In 2008, he was assigned as a faculty member to the Center for Strategic Leadership, U.S. Army War College. He

19 holds a Bachelor of Science Degree in Business-Mathematics from Albright College and a Master of Science Degree in Strategic Intelligence from the National Defense Intelligence College.

Jordan Moneski - senior at UMUC, planning to complete an undergraduate degree in Finance with a minor in Homeland Security. HMLS and Criminal Justice classes have dealt with the Intelligence field, including such topics as Counter-Terrorism, Critical Infrastructure Protection, Intelligence Analysis Software, and Intelligence Reform. This summer, working as an Intern for the Washington/ Baltimore HIDTA (High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area). After graduating at the end of this summer, goal is to pursue an Intelligence Studies degree in Graduate School. Recently became a student member of IAFIE.

Marco Monsalve - Chief Executive Officer of McManis & Monsalve Associates is a senior business and public administration professional with more than 30 years of experience. His areas of expertise include Intelligence Led Management™, strategic planning, business process reengineering, and change management. His experience has been both in the private sector and the Federal government, where he has held high-level executive positions including government wide duties at the Office of Management and Budget. David Moore - career senior intelligence analyst and educator deployed form the National Security Agency to the School of Leadership and Professional Development at the National Geospatial- Intelligence Agency. Formerly he served as a technical director at the National Security Agency where he advocated for, and mentored best practices in intelligence analysis. He is an adjunct faculty member of the National Cryptologic School; has taught at the National Defense Intelligence College (formerly the Joint Military Intelligence College), Washington, DC; at Trinity University, Washington, DC; and lectures at the National Defense University. Mr. Moore holds a B.A. in sociology from Washington and Lee University and a Master of Science of Strategic Intelligence from the National Defense Intelligence. Gregory Moore (Dr.) - Director of the Center for Intelligence Studies as well as the Chairperson of the Department of History and Political Science at Notre Dame College in Cleveland, Ohio. He holds a doctorate in American Diplomatic History from Kent State University. He currently serves on the IAFIE Executive Board as chair of the association’s Educational Practices Committee. Dr. Moore is the editor-in-chief of the Encyclopedia of U.S. Intelligence, scheduled for publication in 2010 by Taylor & Francis Publishing. Kathy Pherson - teaches and facilitates the application of critical thinking and analytic techniques across the Intelligence and Homeland Security communities. She retired from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in 2000, after a 27-year career in intelligence and security analysis and resource management, as head of the DCI's Center for Security Evaluation. Ms. Pherson received her A.B. in Hispanic Studies from Vassar College, an M.A. in Spanish Linguistics and Latin American Studies from the University of Illinois, and an M.A. in Communications from the University of Oklahoma. She is a recipient of the CIA's Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal and the Intelligence Community's National Distinguished Service Medal.

Randolph H. Pherson - President of Pherson Associates, teaches advanced analytic tools and techniques to analysts throughout the Intelligence Community and the private sector. He collaborated with Richards J. Heuer, Jr. in launching the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses software tool; they are drafting a new book, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis. Mr. Pherson completed a 28-year career with the Intelligence Community in 2000, last serving as NIO for Latin America. He received his A.B. from Dartmouth College and M.A. from Yale University.

20 Edna Reid (Dr.) - Dr. Reid is an Associate Professor, Clarion University, Pennsylvania. Formerly, she was a Senior Research Scientist and Adjunct Lecturer at the University of Arizona and a team leader on the AI Lab’s Dark Web project. She has worked at the CIA, MITRE Corporation, San Jose State University, and Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. Her publications include journal articles such as Mapping the contemporary terrorism research domain, Internet-savvy U.S. and Middle Eastern extremist groups, Analysis of jihadi extremist groups’ videos, and a book Terrorism Informatics: Knowledge Management and Data Mining for Homeland Security. She has a doctorate from the University of Southern California, a MLS from the University of Maryland, a graduate certificate in Management Information Systems (MIS) from the American University, and a B.S. from the D.C. Teachers College, Washington, D.C. Michael P. Ryan (Dr.) - Dr. Ryan is director of the Creative and Innovative Economy Center at the George Washington University Law School, where he is coordinating and participating in a variety of research projects regarding the political economy, business, law, diplomacy, and ethics of creativity, innovation, and economic development in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. He is presently writing two books, Knowledge Development: Creativity, Innovation, and the International Political Economy of Intellectual Property and Knowledge Ethics: Responsibility, Innovation, Governance, and AIDS in Africa and he is the author of Knowledge Diplomacy: Global Competition and the Politics of Intellectual Property and Playing by the Rules: American Trade Power and Diplomacy in the Pacific. Dr. Ryan lectures frequently in Geneva to members of the diplomatic community and has lectured and conducted research in many developing countries. He has served on the faculties of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and School of Business and the University of Michigan Business School; has been a guest scholar at the Brookings Institution and a guest lecturer at China University of Law and Political Science; holds a PhD from the University of Michigan and an MA from The Ohio State University. Jamie Schork-Morency - undergraduate senior in American Military University's Intelligence Studies program, and a 2009 National Military Intelligence Foundation scholarship recipient. Prior to attending AMU, she studied at San Diego State University’s International Security and Conflict Resolution program, completing an undergraduate thesis on Russian organized crime. A native of Oak Harbor, Washington, she currently lives in Yokosuka, Japan, teaching English and cooking to Japanese students. Thomas W. Shreeve - joined the Central Intelligence Agency in 1984 and established the CIA Case Method Program in 1990 as a way to capture the value of the Agency’s experience and spread that value throughout the organization. In late 1998, he retired from the CIA to establish a consulting practice focused on the application of the case method to education and training in intelligence, national security, law enforcement, and private industry. Mr. Shreeve is an adjunct instructor at the Centre for Counterintelligence and Security Studies and the Marine Corps Command and Staff College. From 2005 to 2007, he served as Chairman of the International Association for Intelligence Education (IAFIE). He graduated cum laude from Middlebury College in 1969 and received an MBA from the Harvard Business School in 1983. Robert A. Smith - is President and CEO of ProtectionMetrics, LLC, an education, training, and consulting firm that provides adjunct instruction for Mercyhurst College and Anne Arundel Community College Intelligence Studies Programs. Bob Smith has been an IAFIE member since 2005 and currently serves as the ad hoc Liaison Committee Chairman. He has over 37 years law enforcement, intelligence, and protective operations experience with the United States Secret Service and the Federal Law Enforcement Training Center (FLETC). Bob retired in 2001 from the Secret

21 Service as Special Agent in Charge of the Office of Protective Operations, after 25 years service. He then became the Deputy Assistant Director at the FLETC Office of Cheltenham Operations. Bob obtained his Master of Science in Strategic Intelligence from the Joint Military Intelligence College. William Sondervan (Dr.) - Professor and Director of Criminal Justice, Investigative Forensics and Legal Studies at the University of Maryland University College (UMUC). Previously served as the Director of Professional Development at the American Correctional Association (ACA). Dr. Sondervan served as Commissioner of the Maryland Division of Correction (MD DOC) and held positions of Deputy and Assistant Commissioner. His earlier employment includes twenty- two years of progressive criminal justice leadership experience from second lieutenant to lieutenant colonel in the United States Army Military Police Corps from 1972 to 1994. Dr. Sondervan earned a BS from the College of New Jersey, an Ed.M from Boston University, a M.P.A. from Jacksonville State University and an Ed.D. from Virginia Polytechnic Institution and State University. William Spracher - Editor, Center for Strategic Intelligence Research, NDIC. A retired Army COL, he was Army Attaché to Peru, Defense Attaché to Colombia, and Military Professor/XO at NDU’s Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies. He was Asst Professor, USMA Dept of Social Sciences, adjunct at American University’s School of International Studies, and an adjunct at NDIC. He has a BS from West Point (1970), MA in international relations from Yale (1979), MMAS in pol-mil studies from Army CGSC (1983), and is an EdD candidate in George Washington University’s Higher Ed Admin program. His dissertation focuses on intelligence education in U.S. colleges and universities. He is an IAFIE charter member and serves on its Educational Practices Committee. He also is Vice Chair of the Washington Area Chapter. Denise Stepanik - brings 22 years of multi-functional HR expertise to DIA as its Competency Specialist. Besides DIA, worked HR with Air Force, Defense Commissary Agency, and private sector. Expertise includes federal classification, staffing, recruitment, management evaluations, labor and employee relations. Served on the special DIA team designated to prepare for a pay-for-performance system. Examined work for pay comparability among all positions. Wrote, edited, and classified hundreds of job descriptions and competencies covering several fields to include instruction. Kenneth Stringer (Dr.) - Senior Associate who joined Booz Allen Hamilton in 2004 after 20 years of service with the Central Intelligence Agency. Has served as Program Manager supporting the Iran Mission Manager (IMM) as the Analytic Supervisor on a major contract in support of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC). and teaching advanced analysis and critical thinking at the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). He was in charge of South Asia Issue Group at the time of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. He supervised and directed analytic support to CIA officers and the US military in the field throughout Operation Enduring Freedom and during subsequent developments crucial to US policy interests in South Asia. He is a recipient of the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal, the Director’s Award, and the Intelligence Commendation Medal. Eric Walters (Col.) - served as a Senior Intelligence Officer for the past nine years at the Marine Aircraft Wing, Marine Division, Marine Expeditionary Force, and Marine service component level. He led intelligence operations supporting Marine combat aviation in the 2003 invasion of Iraq and was the Joint Task Force Director of Intelligence performing humanitarian assistance after the Indian

22 Ocean Tsunami in 2005. He is an online university professor, published author, television commentator, and Small Wars Journal staff blogger. Timothy Walton (Dr.) - has a B.A. from the College of William and Mary, and a Ph.D. from the University of Virginia. After serving in the Navy, he was an analyst at the CIA for 24 years. Since retiring, he has taught analysis at the Sherman Kent School, Mercyhurst College’s program in the Washington, D.C. area, and the Director of National Intelligence’s Analysis 101. He is the author of the forthcoming textbook, Fundamentals of Intelligence Analysis. Chris Westphal - co-founder and CEO of Visual Analytics Inc. (VAI), a provider of visualization software, information sharing systems, and advanced analytical training. His clients include federal and state/local law enforcement including fusion centers, all major intelligence agencies, the U.S. Department of Defense, and international Financial Intelligence Units (FIUs). Mr. Westphal has authored numerous publications and several books including Data Mining for Intelligence, Fraud & Criminal Detection: Advanced Analytics & Information Sharing Technologies (Westphal, CRC Press, 2008); Data Mining Solutions: Methods and Tools for Solving Real World Problems (Westphal/Blaxton, Wiley, 1998); and Readings in Knowledge Acquisition: Current Practices and Trends (McGraw/Westphal, Ellis Horwood Limited, 1990). He also authored the “Analyzing Intelligence Data: Next Generation Technologies for Connecting the Dots” chapter in Net-Centric Approaches to Intelligence and National Security (Ladner/ Petry, Springer 2005). Todd C. Wiggen (LCDR) - US Coast Guard officer currently assigned to the Coast Guard Training Center in Yorktown, Virginia. During his time with the Coast Guard, LCDR Wiggen has extensive experience in law enforcement intelligence, force protection and counter-drug operations. He has also served as the District Intelligence Officer for Coast Guard District 13 in Seattle, WA, where he was responsible for the implementation of two Field Intelligence Support Teams. LCDR Wiggen holds a Masters Degree in Strategic Intelligence with a concentration in Human Resources Intelligence from the National Defense Intelligence College, a Masters Degree in Interdisciplinary Studies focused on Counseling and Education and undergraduate degrees in Government and Speech Communications from Eastern Washington University. He is currently pursuing a Doctorate in Homeland Security. Barry Zulauf (Dr.) - Deputy Chief of the DEA Office of National Security Intelligence, the 16th member of the Intelligence Community. His was the Executive Assistant to the DEA Chief of Intelligence and from February to July 2006 the first Chief the Office of National Security Intelligence. He is Adjunct Professor of Intelligence with Mercyhurst College, the Distinguished DEA Chair at the National Defense Intelligence College, and Adjunct Professor of Criminal Justice, Michigan State University.

23 IAFIE Outstanding Teacher Award 2009

The IAFIE Outstanding Teacher Award recognizes and honors the distinguished effort and achievements by college, university, and other post-secondary school intelligence instructors; military training personnel; and law enforcement training officials. The award recognizes the recipient’s contributions to the intelligence discipline and profession. This year’s Outstanding Teacher Award is presented to James Holden-Rhodes, Ph.D.

Dr. J.F. Holden-Rhodes

Presently a full-time Technical Consultant, for Universal Technology Corporation at Space Countermeasures Hands-On Program [SpaceCHOP], Air Force Research Laboratory. There, he has been involved in asymmetric [simulating rogue nations/terrorist groups] vulnerability assessments dealing with Space Tracking and Surveillance System (STSS), Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP), GPS, UAS Chemical/Biological Attacks; and serves as a key Mentor in the Kirtland Air Force Base Junior Force Council TIgER program; and, the AFRL Commander’s Cup Challenge. In the latter, the KAFB Teams have won the CCC for the past three years by developing and field testing in competition with Wright-Patterson Air Force base, rapid prototype projects: vehicle stopper, long endurance UAS, and, Tagging and Tracking of humans and vehicles.

Dr. Holden-Rhodes brings 20+ years of seasoned experience in Intelligence, Intelligence Operations, and operations issues to the national security arena. A combat-tested USMC Infantry/Reconnaissance Officer thrice decorated for actions under fire, he has applied his military experiences and learning from advanced graduate work to the difficult issues facing the nation. As the first non-traditional Post Doctoral Fellow at Los Alamos National Laboratory he worked on unconventional nuclear issues, terrorism/counterterrorism, special operations, and force projection.

Involved in the world of terrorism/counter-terrorism long before terror was recognized as a primary threat to this country, he served as the Team Chief, Latin America, 9001st Military Intelligence Detachment [Terrorism Counteraction]. [It was this group that coined the term “narco-terrorism”]. This experience led to a “boots on the ground” assignment as the Counter Drug Intelligence Team Leader for LANL/US Southern Command and the identification and tracking of coca growing and cocaine production sites, and, transshipment routes to the United States.

A pioneer in the development of and applied application of Open Source Intelligence [OSINT] he is the author of the award-winning book, Sharing the Secrets-Open Source Intelligence and the War on Drugs. An accomplished, frequently published writer/author he also wrote and co-edited, Intelligence in Terrorism Counteraction for the US Army Intelligence Center and School.

24 He has lectured and taught at the National Drug Intelligence Center, National Security Agency, Central Intelligence Agency, Western European Union [Paris], University of New Mexico, New Mexico Highlands University, and New Mexico State University. He created and served as the Director, Intelligence Studies, NMSU. There, students were trained at the undergraduate and graduate level in analytical techniques prior to joining the US Intelligence Community. He is now Adjunct Associate Professor of Intelligence Studies at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University [Albuquerque Center] where he leads the Certificate and Minor in Intelligence Studies and Security programs.

He recently led contractual work as a Project Manager for US Army Intelligence and Security Command [INSCOM] dealing with the monitoring, collection, and analysis/synthesis of OSINT production dealing with the policies and actions of nine Middle Eastern countries vis-à-vis their responses to United States operations in Iraq. He is also the Senior OSINT Analyst for the Food and Drug Administration/New Mexico State University project for food safety and bio-terrorism issues.

25 Essay Contest

IAFIE held its 2009 Essay Competition to promote IAFIE’s goal of providing a forum for the communication and exchange of ideas and information for those interested in and concerned with intelligence education.

One of the following four questions was answered in each essay:

1. What impact have major events of this decade had on the role of the intelligence professional in national security, law enforcement or competitive intelligence? (Select major events based upon your choice of field.)

2. Intelligence-led policing is in practice in several countries on several continents. Using real- world examples, what, in your opinion, are the strengths and weaknesses of intelligence-led policing?

3. What do you think are the most important challenges facing the intelligence community over the next 10 years?

4. What advantages do strategic analysis and futures thinking hold for the future of the intelligence professional and how can they be incorporated into the intelligence professional’s skill sets?

A panel of intelligence professionals judged all entries and selected the winners for each category (Professional, Graduate Student, and Undergraduate Student). Essays were evaluated on their relevance to the question, creativity, strength of argument, and writing quality.

Category winners:

Professional Category “Events that Impact Intelligence Analysts: A Revised Bloom’s Taxonomy Perspective” by Edna Reid, Ph.D. Clarion University

Graduate Student Category “Information is to Intelligence as Cell is to Human” by Patrick John Reyes Ramos University of Tokyo

Undergraduate Student Category “The Threat from Cyberspace”

26 by Michael Cohen Cornell University

27 28 Professional Category – Dr. Edna Reid

Events that Impact Intelligence Analysts: a Revised Bloom’s Taxonomy Perspective

Introduction During this post-9/11 era of reforms in the intelligence community (IC), terrorist groups’ increased sophistication in using the Internet, and establishment of an Open Source1 Center (OSC), it is time to further demystify and enhance the visibility of an under-the-radar career: intelligence analyst2. With the increase in the size, complexities, and mission-critical tasks of the U.S. intelligence community, it is experiencing a critical shortage of intelligence analysts that doesn’t seem to be going away! Accordingly, analysts are needed in many of the 16 intelligence community agencies (e.g., FBI, CIA, DIA, NSA) particularly in the departments and agencies created since 9/11 (Shrader, 2004; Losey, 2007). For instance despite the current bleak economic environment, the FBI announced it wants to fill over 3,000 positions including intelligence analysts, language specialists, heathcare analysts, and records management professionals (Frieden, 2009).

Although the U.S. intelligence community has poured millions of dollars into educational programs (e.g., certificate in intelligence analysis, summer camp for high school students) during the last decade, the number of educational programs in intelligence analysis remains insufficient (Willing, 2006). Given the tainted reputation of the IC, some educators shy away from discussions and implementations of intelligence programs. Others ask what an intelligence analyst is and how intelligence analysis fit within the broader academic context. Some seek to frame the concept of an intelligence analyst so that the public (e.g., students, high school counselors, parents, and academic advisors) can better understand the career demands, challenges, competencies, and opportunities associated with it.

1 Open source is unclassified information such as news articles, books, and foreign language reports.

2 An intelligence analyst is responsible for using available information to analyze ambiguous mission- critical questions, identify plausible solutions, and provide recommendations. He generates reports and briefs senior management officials as necessary in regard to specific findings. The discipline of intelligence analysis has historically been located within political science, history, and international studies departments.

29 The remainder of this essay describes major events of this decade and their impacts on the intelligence profession, especially the intelligence analyst. The key events include 9/11 attacks, post-9/11 intelligence community reforms, terrorist groups’ sophisticated use of the Internet, and establishment of an Open Source Center (OSC) for the IC. The essay also includes a discussion of how the events impinge upon the incremental competencies and capabilities necessary for today’s intelligence analyst. The analysts need to be equipped with higher-level cognitive skills such as the ability to analyze national security scenarios, share information with other analysts and agencies, synthesize plausible outcomes of events, and create intelligence reports. Such skills are described using the Revised Bloom’s Taxonomy of learning outcomes. The framework in this taxonomy maybe useful for providing a common language that facilitates communication to a wider community including educators, counselors, parents, and students who are unfamiliar with the intelligence community domain.

Impact of 9/11 Attacks and IC Reforms According to Zegart (2006, p.44), a specialist in intelligence reforms, as early as in the 1990s there were intelligence warnings, reports, and high level presidential briefings about the dangers and threats of terrorist attacks within the U.S. by radical Islamic groups. Nonetheless, the intelligence warnings ‘failed’ to be translated into actionable plans. In many bipartisan commissions (e.g., Hart-Rudman Commission, Bremer Commission), policymakers shared the concerns, identified major deficiencies, and provided recommendations for improvement in the intelligence community to meet the national security challenges of the 21st century.

Improvements were needed in areas such as integration and coordination of the intelligence community, enhancement of information sharing across the community, amplification of human intelligence (spying) capabilities to combat terrorism, recruitment of more personnel with necessary skills to confront rising post-Cold War threats such as terrorism, and more robust analysis of asymmetric threats (Zegart, p. 48). Asymmetric threats, such as the 9/11 attacks of the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, are unusual and unconventional threats that are devastating and highly disruptive.

Investigations after the 9/11 attacks (e.g., 9/11 Commission, Congressional Joint Inquiry) showed that the deficiencies resulted in the inability of the intelligence community to prevent or disrupt attacks by

30 al Qaeda (Zegart, p.56). The results of the investigations led to reform legislations such as the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act. This Act created a Director of National Intelligence (DNI) who has authority over the intelligence community in matters such as creating the intelligence community budget and establishing guidelines for timely and effective intelligence requirements, collection requirements, intelligence analysis, and dissemination.

The Act represents a major effort to start reforming the intelligence community which has remained dormant for the last fifty years. Other reforms include the establishment of a new department of homeland security (Homeland Security Act) and the enhancement of domestic security against terrorism.

Impact of Terrorist Groups’ Internet Sophistication Intelligence community reforms emphasize changes that are needed so that the community can proactively predict, monitor, and respond to current and emerging 21st century national security threats such as terrorist groups that plan and execute their attacks using creative approaches and diverse technologies. The threats from these non-state actors are further complicated by the explosive growth and sophisticated use of the Internet that have enhanced global connectivity, communication, uncertainties, and the use of Web 2.0 social networking applications (e.g., online discussion forum, wiki, blog, YouTube) for all users.

According to Internet World Stats (2009), the worldwide Internet usage growth from 2000-2008 has been 305%. From a geographical perspective, Internet penetration rate is the highest in North America (74%) and the lowest in Africa (5%). The increased use of the Internet by terrorists and other extremist groups’3, who use it for social networking as well as a tool for communications, radicalization, psychological warfare, global expansion, and training, serve to heighten and escalate the conflicts and tensions in the name of what some call the holy struggle.

U.S. domestic and international terrorists use the Internet-based computer-mediated communication (CMC) tools (such as websites, discussion forums, blogs, and chat session) to create their own news, provide real-time interpretations of the local and international press, and communicate publicly and 3 Extremist groups are anti-government social movement organizations that are not on the formal lists of recognized terrorist groups such as the U.S. designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs).

31 privately with millions of people worldwide including members, supporters, sympathizers, and enemies near and far (Jenkins, 2004; Reid & Chen, 2007). This allows the groups to bypass traditional communication channels, information gatekeepers, and law enforcement agents.

According to estimates, the groups have created thousands of websites, listservs, chat sessions, videos, and discussion forums that range from a few pages to sophisticated sites with password protected discussion forums and extensive digital libraries of reports, multimedia resources, and e-commerce merchandise (Weimann, 2004; Reid & Chen, p.178). In Bunt’s (2003) analysis of online contents’ influences on Muslims, he reports that the content exposed Muslims to new interpretations and diverse Islamic thinking and perspectives. Another type of influence is the enhanced confidence in their technical online proficiency and its potential for waging an e-jihad (online jihad4 holy war).

Establishment of an Open Source Center (OSC) In response, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) has followed up with a recommendation from the Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission and established an Open Source Center (OSC) within the CIA. OSC is designed to enhance the capability of the intelligence community to maximize the use of publicly available domestic and foreign news, television, radio and Internet information (Bean, 2007).

The terrorist groups’ increased use of Web 2.0 social networking applications to support collaboration, training, radicalization, and recruitment have led to a burgeoning volume of digitized cultural artifacts (also known as open source information) that can shed light on groups’ operations, levels of coordination, viewpoints, potential threats, and shifts in tactic and operations. As a result, the intelligence community is overwhelmed with an abundance of open source information in various languages that emanate from terrorist groups’ websites, wikis, online forums, and videos.

4 “In Islam the term ‘jihad’ has a dual meaning. The ‘big jihad’ refers to the continuous inner struggle to live as a good Muslim; the ‘small jihad’ refers to the armed struggle in the defense of Islam (and the country of Islam)” (Ministry, 2006, p.11). In this essay, the term jihad is used in the latter sense.

32 To support the diffusion and usage of the open source information5, the DNI has implemented aggressive approaches to reposition open source as a valuable intelligence resource that should be utilized across the IC such as in the President’s Daily Brief.6 Approaches for repositioning open source information include a diversity of activities such as an annual IC open source conference that provides a venue for bringing together intelligence professionals from around the world and throughout the IC.

The Open Source Center (OSC) and the DNI Open Source Conference are examples of programs designed to help upgrade intelligence professionals’ competencies in exploiting Internet resources and analyzing open source information. These competencies are critical because in order for analysts to meet the national security challenges of the 21st century then they must be familiar with the technology (e.g., iphone, Wii) and social networking tools (e.g., Facebook, Intellipedia7). By using the tools, analysts will be better prepared to harness them in their analysis and synthesis of specific intelligence questions as well as to identify trends, patterns, gaps, blind spots, and potential threats associated with nontraditional local and foreign enemies.

A Broader Perspective of Intelligence Analyst As previously described major events have led to an increased demand for intelligence analysts who have cutting edge expertise and for a broader understanding outside of the intelligence community, of the characteristics of an intelligence analyst. To enhance the understanding and facilitate discussion among intelligence professors and other educators, the cognitive processes and knowledge associated with the intelligence analyst discipline are described using Bloom’s taxonomy.

5 In the intelligence community, the identification, acquisition, and processing of open source information is called open source intelligence (OSINT)

6 President’s Daily Brief is a top secret document that is used to brief the President on a daily basis about sensitive situations. The Director of National Intelligence is responsible for the President’s Daily Brief.

7 Intellipedia is a Wikipedia-type application that is being used by intelligence community to share information across the agencies and discuss opinions on intelligence topics

33 Marshall’s (2005, p.9) and Johnston’s (2005) intelligence analysis studies mention the relevancy of Bloom’s taxonomy to understanding the work of intelligence analysts. The Revised Bloom’s Taxonomy8 provides two dimensions with both a cognitive process dimension and a knowledge dimension. The cognitive process dimension allows for the identification of six cognitive levels: remember, understand, apply, analyze, evaluate, and create (Krathwohl, 2002). The higher cognitive levels (e.g., apply, analyze, etc.) require the lower-level skills and abilities and are viewed as critical thinking skills because they require students to go beyond what they know, analyze unfamiliar situations, and create new ideas. They are essential skills that intelligence analysts need. Table 1 summarizes the higher cognitive levels and provides examples from the Defense Intelligence College (DIC).

Table 1: Critical Thinking Levels of the Revised Bloom’s Taxonomy and Intelligence Analysis Higher Cognitive Descriptions (Wilson, 2006) Intelligence Analysis Examples (Marshall, 2005; Levels Analysis, 2008) 1. Apply (the . Select and use . Students at the DIC worked on an lowest) appropriate theories or assignment about when Iraq threatened to procedures to solve new invade Kuwait again in October 1994. or unfamiliar situations. . They decided to use Richard Heuer’s analytical methodology (Analysis of Competing Hypotheses or ACH) for evaluating multiple hypotheses. 2. Analyze . Dissect the problem . They identified all potential hypotheses into parts to determine such as Iraq was training troops to conduct how they relate to one a demonstration. another or to an overall . They listed evidence and arguments for and structure or purpose. against each hypothesis. . Combine the parts into . They designed a matrix containing each a new integrated whole. alternative hypothesis in an attempt to disprove as many as possible. 3. Evaluate . Make judgment about . They rated the evidence as consistent, the value based on inconsistent, or not related. criteria and standards . They reviewed the findings and evaluated through checking and them to identify gaps and need for critiquing. additional evidence. 4. Create (highest . Construct a report that . They questioned their analysis and tried to level) provides your findings, draw conclusions about the likelihood of recommendations, and each hypothesis. value judgments. . They identified consistency or inconsistency . Prepare an oral of assumptions and generated a report that presentation includes findings and summary of all alternatives and reasons for rejections. . They provided recommendations and milestones as indicators for future analysis.

8 See Krathwohl’s or Pickard’s articles for description of the original taxonomy.

34 Table 1 uses examples of a structured analytical technique called Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ACH) to describe higher order cognitive levels from an intelligence analyst’s perspective. ACH is a hypothesis testing methodology that uses a matrix for rudimentary visualization (Van Gedler, 2006). Intelligence analysts also resort to statistical hypothesis testing. Oftentimes though, the data are incomplete and have limited usefulness.

In addition to the cognitive processing dimension, the Revised Bloom’s Taxonomy identifies the knowledge dimension that includes four levels of knowledge: factual, conceptual, procedural, and metacognitive (Pickard, 2007, p.48). Intelligence analysts also need different types of knowledge to accomplish the tasks of providing mission-critical analysis to decision-makers. Table 2 describes the levels of knowledge and maps them to examples from intelligence analysis. Table 2: Knowledge Dimension of the Revised Bloom’s Taxonomy and Intelligence Analysis Types of Knowledge (Wilson, 2006) Intelligence Analysis Examples (Marshall, 2005) 1. Factual knowledge . History of the intelligence community . basic to specific disciplines . Different kinds of evidence: people . essential facts, terminology, or history that (HUMINT), imagery (IMINT), technical students must know in order to understand signals (SIGINT), open source (OSINT), the discipline or solve a problem physical science (MASINT) 2. Conceptual knowledge . Pillars of the profession: sources and . classification, principles, categories methods. Sources refer to collection and . models, theories, structures methods refer to analysis . Structural analytical methodologies and associated evidence . Historical research theories 3. Procedural knowledge . Steps in structured methodologies (e.g., . subject-specific skills, techniques ACH, Situational Logic) to break down . specific methodologies, methods of inquiry problems into pieces and put pieces back . criteria for knowing when to use specific together methods, techniques . Process of writing brief intelligence reports that start with conclusions . Giving an intelligence briefing to a decision-maker who has limited time 4. Metacognitive knowledge . Approaches for effectively presenting an . strategic or reflective knowledge intelligence brief to a decision-maker who . knowledge of one’s own self and cognitive has limited knowledge of the topic processes . Self-assessment as the analyst analyzes the adversaries in the present and makes judgments about the future while trying to be culturally-neutral, bias-free, and creative

35 In Table 2, examples of the different levels of knowledge in intelligence analysis illustrate the skills, challenges, and commitments required of intelligence analysts.

Conclusion The 9/11 attacks, post-9/11 intelligence reforms, terrorist groups’ sophisticated use of the Internet, and the establishment of the OSC have major impacts on challenges, competencies, and career opportunities associated with the intelligence analyst. The events highlight the need for other educators (e.g., healthcare, information science, digital media) to join the debate and curriculum design teams so they can further discussions with intelligence professors about designing interdisciplinary intelligence-focused curricula that meet the demands of a customer-driven intelligence community that is dealing with increasingly complex cultural, technological, and global problems.

Given the ubiquity and ever increasing power of information and communication, technology (ICT), notwithstanding the lifelong-learning audacity of highly motivated and committed individuals – like the terrorists – today’s intelligence analysts should be fully equipped with the right skills, knowledge, competencies and continuous learning cycles just to match their real and virtual adversaries’ arsenals for their terror campaign. Terrorists have been very adept in tapping the wealth and advantages of constituting a very rich and diverse collectivity of members in their social movement. On the educational side, there is need to do the same thing – tap into other disciplines – that are not normally affiliated with intelligence analysis. Use frameworks such as the Bloom’s taxonomy to support the sharing of ideas about educational partnerships, interdisciplinary apprenticeship programs, and other approaches that can be part of lifelong learning strategies for enhancing the visibility, creativity, and availability of intelligence analysts.

References Analysis of competing hypothesis. (2008). Wikipedia. Retrieved January 3, 2009 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analysis_of_Competing_Hypotheses

Bean, H. (2007). DNI’s Open Source Center: an Organizational Communication Perspective. International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 20(2), 240-257.

36 Bunt, G.R. (2003). Islam in the Digital Age E-Jihad, Online Fatwas and Cyber Islamic Environments. London: Pluto Press.

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Krathwohl, D.R. (2002). A revision of Bloom’s Taxonomy: An overview. Theory Into Practice, 41(4), Autum, 212-218.

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37 http://www.fas.org/irp/world/netherlands/violent.pdf

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Zegart, A.B. (2006). An empirical analysis of failed intelligence reforms before September 11. Political Science Quarterly, 121(1), 33-60.

38 39 Graduate Category- Patrick John Reyes Ramos

Information is to Intelligence as Cell is to Human

Introduction A vast literature on the subject of intelligence have come up with the simple but precise formula that intelligence equals information plus analysis. While it is true that analysis spells out the major difference between an intelligence product and merely raw information, the latter still constitutes a critical half of the intelligence equation. Apparently, as cells are the basic building blocks of the human body, information are the fundamental elements of intelligence. Therefore, the intelligence field requires an effective strategy for identifying, gathering, collecting and organizing data and basic information. Against a background of rapid technological progress around the globe, the intelligence community surely encounters boundless possibilities and significant opportunities in the ambit of information sourcing and data collection. But at the same time, it is confronted with a number of important problems and growing concerns. Firstly, how can the intelligence community deal with the massive influx of data in this era of the internet and highly-advanced information and communications technologies? In particular, what prospects and barriers exist for the intelligence professional in carrying out a successful intelligence task in this time when huge information are easily accessible to almost anyone, anytime and anywhere? Secondly, which sources, tools, software and techniques can lead to the most reliable and efficient data gathering and collection methodology? Apart from these, what other skills and instruments can better equip and enhance the intelligence professional in fruitfully identifying good sources of data and information? Lastly, who can lend support and assistance in furthering the intelligence field in this period of unprecedented information and technological advance? More importantly, how can the intelligence community tap their resources and expertise to develop better ways of finding and gathering appropriate and useful information that will ultimately result to exceptional and valuable intelligence products? Consequently, this essay provides a brief discussion on the above vital challenges facing the intelligence community at present and over the next decade or so and likewise offers a number of ideas and suggestions on how to address and tackle some of these issues.

40 Intelligence and Intelligence Professionals in an Information and Technology Era Indisputably, our world currently lives in an information age. With the proliferation of the internet and the unparalleled advancement of information and communications technologies, various data and information are truly within the fingertips of anybody with the sufficient means and resources. Of course, this translates to positive developments for the intelligence field given that information constitutes the necessary starting point of any intelligence-related endeavor. Unfortunately, not all information, whether publicly- or privately-sourced, can be reliable and useful to the intelligence community and in some instances may even be deceptive, burdensome and misleading. Moreover, whilst the accessibility of tons of data and superior technologies nowadays has considerable benefits to intelligence professionals, it also poses some danger and negative aspects including the availability of the same information and devices to the public and other organizations (which lessens the tactical advantage of the intelligence community) and more problematically, the possibility that such information and tools can be intercepted or fall into the wrong hands which can then be utilized for unlawful purposes that in the end would only instigate catastrophic and ill results. Thus, the intelligence community, aside from exploiting the benefits of prevalent information and technological breakthroughs, should also strive to find even more advanced ways and techniques of collecting and assessing the reliability of data and their sources, intensify the security, preserve the exclusivity and enhance the manner in which information are transferred within its networks as well as continue to discover and introduce much sophisticated technologies for data gathering and collection in order to maintain the organization’s intelligence and counterintelligence edges.

Clearly, intelligence professionals need to keep up with the colossal technological developments of the modern times. They must always be at the forefront of recent innovations in the information and communications fields and using these complex technical means, amass and utilize all necessary data from all probable sources (and if possible retain control of both data and their sources) before such information can even get to the public and other interested parties. This obviously adds a lot of pressure to the intelligence community as it requires considerable time, effort and money. Moreover, it necessitates improved methods of verification, evaluation and interception of data especially those secured from the internet, different electronics and communications gadgets as well as other secondhand sources. Other than these amplified tasks, intelligence professionals even need to sustain and boost their skills in traditional forms of data collection such as physical surveillance, engagement

41 of confidential informants and undercover operators, and investigation of public records, among others. Above all, they must always hang on to their imagination and free-thinking spirit throughout the entire information gathering process and never rely solely on technical or mechanized means since some of the best intelligence products can only be derived from sheer human intelligence. As it appears, creative thinking, personal judgments and scholarly intuitions may comprise the only remaining advantage of the intelligence community in this era when data and information are simply available to just about anyone, anytime and anywhere. Hence, one pitfall of a greatly industrialized society that the intelligence community must learn to circumvent involves the overdependence on automated systems and simulated information databases. Nevertheless, it is still imperative that intelligence professionals be knowledgeable about recent technologies to be able to maximize the advent of many superior and practical information and communication devices. This will in turn facilitate them during data gathering and accumulation which remains to be the most labor-intensive aspect and an essential, if not the most important, phase of the intelligence process.

Information Sources, Tools and Other Instruments for a Productive Intelligence Task Definitely, the intelligence community is at a better position now more than ever to undertake its task. The availability of various information sources, tools and software packages opens up a myriad of possibilities for synthesizing valuable intelligence products. The challenge then lies in the identification, selection, optimum utilization and upgrading of these modern instruments in order to arrive at the most reliable data and information. For instance, geographic information systems (GIS) can offer large and relevant data which may be utilized in a wide variety of applications. The intelligence community must therefore master GIS to the fullest extent possible and likewise augment existing imagery systems with more high-level and specially designed features which can further contribute to better information gathering and processing. Similarly, electronic tools and various computer software packages provide other useful facilities not only for data sourcing and collection but also for the organization, sharing, safekeeping and analysis of information. Traffic and transportation modeling software packages, for instance, can simulate spatial movements and mobility scenarios according to specific changes or disturbances in a particular system (e.g., road and expressway blockage, terrorist bombings of certain buildings and structures, mass departure during natural disasters, etc.) which might proved invaluable to intelligence-related tasks like police entrapment activities, counterterrorism measures as well as disaster relief and mitigation. The internet, of course, affords another extensive resource of expedient, albeit not always reliable, information and scholarly

42 articles which can facilitate the intelligence community in carrying out its function. However, caution must always be exercised whenever data and information are derived from this type of sources and verification and assessment should always form part of the whole data collection process. Evidently, information can now emanate from several sources and can likewise come in various forms and structures. Therefore, the intelligence community must always be adept, vigilant and conscientious in identifying, gathering and using existing data and their sources and at the same time continue exploring undiscovered and groundbreaking technical resources and methods.

Indeed, advanced technologies make it easier and more convenient to obtain substantial data for perusal by the intelligence community but some information still require more than complex automated systems and electronic implements to be properly collected and effectively utilized by intelligence analysts and professionals. Language expertise and cross-cultural knowledge are some examples of peculiar instruments that can better equip the intelligence community to access and better understand other raw data and information. With rising globalization, the world is truly becoming smaller and more connected resulting to simpler, faster and cheaper exchanges and transfers not only of technologies, trade products, people and other resources but also of information and intelligence. Thus, the intelligence community must cope up with this situation and being familiar with other foreign languages, cultures and customs can certainly be an asset in understanding additional data and information and more importantly in preparing against threats and pressures that can now stem from almost any part of the world. At any rate, the intelligence community must begin to recognize the multifaceted character of the information gathering process and should attempt to expand its scope and proficiency to cover not only purely scientific and technical fields but also social, economic, political and environmental spheres and taking into account both domestic and international settings.

Crucial Partners for Enhanced Information Gathering and Analysis While it is commonly accepted that security, confidentiality and exclusivity are essential pillars of the intelligence field, some degree of openness and receptiveness can actually benefit the intelligence community. Realistically, not every skill and ability can be secured internally within intelligence agencies. The number of times that outside experts from academic circles, businesses and scientific communities have been called upon to provide opinions and recommendations during intelligence operations plainly supports this argument. Hence, the intelligence community should encourage much wider participation of other specialists to assist in enhancing the institution’s data collection and

43 organization procedures. Such skills as creative and critical thinking, ingenuity and innovativeness that many scientists, researchers, engineers and other practitioners share with most intelligence analysts and professionals can absolutely facilitate in the identification, gathering and organization of more reliable and accurate information. Strong ties and collaborations with these outside individuals would thereby fortify the capacity of the intelligence community and bring in fresh and modern ideas, technologies and supplementary resources. Joint researches and projects with academic institutions and commercial enterprises, forums, conferences and training workshops on multidisciplinary subjects and related areas as well as direct hiring or recruitment of scientific, technical and other relevant personnel are some of the ways through which the intelligence community can draw upon the expertise of these future crucial partners in the intelligence field. Obviously, prudence and strictness must always be observed in dealing with the above proposed encounters so as to preserve the integrity of the intelligence community but a certain amount of transparency and confidence should also be allowed in order to fully optimize the benefits from such cooperation and alliances.

Conclusion There are some issues and concerns arising with regard to the collection and organization of data and information for the purpose of intelligence during this period of rapid technological growth. Against a background of too many accessible but not necessarily dependable physical and electronic sources, highly-sophisticated information tools and varied communication methods, this essay identifies three important challenges facing the intelligence community now and in the years to come, namely: (1) how to carefully identify, choose, access, evaluate and utilize reliable and accurate information and their sources, (2) how to further improve data sourcing, collection, sharing and storage techniques, and (3) how to explore new resources and tap outside specialists to help in developing more and more intricate systems of information gathering, interpretation and safekeeping. To respond to such challenges, the intelligence community should at the outset be experienced and well-versed on recent innovations in the information and communications fields as well as in other scientific and engineering disciplines. It must adequately build its capacity and competence in utilizing new developments in these areas to continuously enhance its data sourcing and collection processes. At the same time, it should maintain its resourcefulness, imaginativeness and creative nature to also gather and find information via other non-mechanized and unconventional ways. Next, the intelligence community must exploit the capabilities of modern technical instruments like highly-developed imagery systems, electronic and communication apparatuses, computerized tools and software packages and the ever evolving internet

44 to improve and expand its data gathering activities. On the other hand, it should also develop its know- how in other subjects such as regional languages, global political systems and world cultures to encompass a broader resource of raw data and basic information. Finally, the intelligence community should reach out to experts in the scientific and other specialized domains to become more responsive and well-prepared for the latest advancements in the field of information collection and organization. Accordingly, it must foster strong ties and partnerships with businesses, industries and academic institutions which can undoubtedly provide ample support, guidance, resources as well as new perspectives and direction. By imbibing some of the foregoing suggestions, the intelligence community can most likely fulfill its mandate much effectively and successfully and likewise be able to nourish its competitiveness and ascendancy in this current era of information and technological revolution.

As a final point, while this paper strongly focuses on the importance of the data sourcing and gathering aspect of the intelligence process, it does not in any way discount the relevance of its analysis component. Of course, analysis remains to be a critical part of the entire intelligence cycle and may even be the defining factor for the efficiency and usefulness of any intelligence product. Nonetheless, it is still worth emphasizing the significance of the information collection process since no effective intelligence output (no matter how thorough and brilliant the analysis procedure is) can ensue in the absence of any adequate and reliable information. After all, information is to intelligence as what cell is to human. And as good and strong cells result to a healthy person, only proper and coherent information can lead to a sound and viable intelligence product.

Bibliography

1. Bureau of Justice Assistance, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice. Intelligence-Led Policing: The New Intelligence Architecture. September 2005. http://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/bja/210681.pdf (last accessed on January 5, 2009). 2. New Jersey State Police; Center for Policing Terrorism at the Manhattan Institute; Harbinger. Practical Guide to Intelligence-Led Policing. September 2006. http://www.cpt- mi.org/pdf/NJPoliceGuide.pdf (last accessed on January 5, 2009). 3. Robert Hutchings, National Intelligence Council. Strategic Choices, Intelligence Challenges (Speech delivered at the Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University). December 1, 2003. http://www.dni.gov/nic/speeches_choices_challenges.htm (last accessed on January 5, 2009).

45 46 Undergraduate Category- Michael Cohen

The Threat From Cyberspace

In a tragically ironic turn of history, a remnant of perhaps the greatest struggle of the 20th century helped spark what threatens to be the defining challenge of the 21st. On April 27, 2007, the Estonian government relocated the Bronze Soldier of Tallinn, a memorial to the millions of Red Army soldiers who died fighting Nazi Germany. The move stirred simmering ethnic rivalry and, in response, a group of rogue actors moved to exact revenge upon the Estonian government. Ten years ago, such a response would have likely involved bombs and bullets and burning buildings. However, this attack came through a very 21st century medium: the Internet.

A carefully orchestrated denial-of-service campaign employed a massive network of hijacked computers to flood websites critical to Estonian infrastructure. An Estonian government spokesman confirmed that websites normally receiving 1,000 visits each day were being inundated with 2,000 visits every second.9 Sites belonging to Estonia’s government, political parties, media outlets, and leading businesses were all forced to shut down. The infrastructure of an entire society grinded to a halt; a sovereign nation was, albeit temporarily, toppled without a single shot fired.

Intelligence agencies the world over must treat the Estonian cyberattack as a wakeup call; as a grave signal that the age of cyberwarfare and cyberterrorism is here and, perhaps, has just begun. The increasingly interconnected world of the 21st century has ushered in an era of new personal luxuries and technological innovations that have truly transformed human society. Yet, this era’s greatest strength – the proliferation of information technology that has connected and empowered so many – may also be its greatest weakness. Threats from cyberspace – from warfare to espionage, from organized crime to terrorism – will constitute the intelligence community’s greatest challenge as it confronts the difficult and dangerous decade to come.

The Estonian cyberattack stands out as a particularly ominous example of how a nation can fall prey to an online offensive, but it is neither the first nor even the greatest strike of its kind. For years, hackers on the Indian subcontinent have been engaged in a cyberconflict, with scores of denial-of-

9 Christopher Rhoads, “Cyber Attack Vexes Estonia, Poses Debate,” The Wall Street

Journal, May 18, 2007, p. A6.

47 service attacks exchanged over the Pakistan-India border. After the disqualification of South Korean speed skater Kim Dong-sun effectively awarded a gold medal to American rival Apollo Ohno at the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, outrage in South Korea manifested itself in a massive denial- of-service attack that brought down several large American servers. Perhaps the largest and most damaging cyberattack to date was a series of China-based hacks on United States government computers that the FBI has codenamed Titan Rain, though Titan Rain stands out from this list because it was not a denial-of-service attack.

Denial-of-service attacks are often launched using bot networks, or botnets. Responsible for both the Estonian and Olympic cyberattacks, botnets are constellations of computers that have been compromised and infected with a malicious code. The code allows them to be remotely controlled by a hacker (known as the botmaster) over the Internet. Remotely controlling thousands (sometimes hundreds of thousands) of computers enables the botmaster to flood and disable websites, potentially wreaking havoc on any electronic system. How can a threat to computer systems, in the age of seemingly greater threats including nuclear proliferation and Islamic extremism, comprise the most important challenge to the intelligence community? The problem is that computer systems now control nearly every facet of military and civilian life. Joel Brenner, the National Counterintelligence Executive put it this way:

Our water and sewer systems, electricity grids, financial markets, payroll systems, air and ground traffic control systems ... are all electronically controlled, electronically dependent, and subject to sophisticated attacks by both state-sponsored and freelance terrorists.10

Clearly, the threat of a botnet attack transcends the inconvenience and monetary toll of mere website failure. The fact that a botnet attack on the United States civilian or military infrastructure has not yet inflicted significant and lasting damage, experts agree, does not mean that America is safe. In fact, the threat appears to be growing as cybercriminals in general and botmasters in particular have grown dramatically more adept and powerful in recent years. One reason for identifying the threat from cyberspace as the most important challenge facing the intelligence community over the next 10 years is to examine what has happened on this front over the past 10 years. A decade ago, cybercrime was a blip on the radar of intelligence agencies. Today, according to the FBI, it costs American 10 Jeanne Meserve, “Official: International Hackers Going After U.S. Networks,” CNN.com,

October 19, 2007, [http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/10/19/cyber.threats/index.html]

48 industry alone almost half a trillion dollars per year.11 Dr. James Lewis, Director of the Technology and Public Policy Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. explains:

Ten years ago, they were amateurs; now they are professionals who stay on top of their game. Cyber crime is a risk… and we’re having a hard time getting a handle on it.12

Botnets in particular seem to be evolving in two major ways. First, the mechanism of infection is changing. Botnets used to be transmitted by hiding in software and programs that people open from their email or download from the Internet. A well-informed individual could largely avoid botnets by not downloading pirated software, not following malicious links, and not opening spam email. Unfortunately, those days are long gone. Avoiding such risky online practices is no longer sufficient because bots are increasingly transmitted through “drive-by downloads” from legitimate websites.13 This means that bots can spread simply through the viewing of innocent websites (no conscious download is required), and such transmission can occur without the knowledge of either website owner or viewer. Since bots are often very good at hiding their presence, the owners of infected computers generally do not know they are carriers of the botnet… and one does not need to be a practicing physician to know that it is very hard to cure an illness when the patient has no symptoms at all.

The second major aspect of the deeply troubling botnet evolution involves the flattening of the botnet organizational hierarchy. Until 2004, all botnets operated in basically the same fashion: As the network grew, the botmaster communicated with its herd using an Internet Relay Chat (IRC) server.14

11 Clay Wilson, “Botnets, Cybercrime, and Cyberterrorism: Vulnerabilities and Policy Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, January 29, 2008, at [http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/terror/RL32114.pdf]

12 Susan MacLean, “Report warns of Organized Cyber Crime,” ItWorldCanada, August 26,

2005, [http://www.itworldcanada.com/a/IT-Focus/39c78aa4-df47-4231-a083-ddd1ab8985 fb.html]

13 Jeff Hecht, “Web Browsers Are New Frontline in Internet War,” NewScientistTech, May

5, 2007, [http://www.newscientisttech.com/article.ns?id=mg19426026.000&print=true]

14 Jeff Hecht, “Web Browsers Are New Frontline in Internet War,” NewScientistTech, May

49 Under this system, every bot has a direct link to the botmaster. If the authorities could successfully locate a bot and track the IRC address of the computer on the other end of the botnet communication, then the authorities had successfully found the botmaster. From there, arresting the botmaster and disabling the botnet was relatively easy work.

Then, in 2004, the first P2P botnets began to terrorize the web. P2P botnets, or peer-to-peer bot networks, operate much as they sound: The bots communicate as peers, so a direct IRC connection no longer links each bot to its master. Since trapping a bot does not easily lead authorities to the ringleader, the proliferation of these advanced botnets are even harder to stop.

The case of Jeanson Ancheta is a rare example of a major botmaster who was tracked down and convicted in federal court. Ancheta alone, a 21-year-old California hacker and member of a group known as “Botmaster Underground,” had taken over more than 400,000 computers.15 These advanced botnets are staggeringly – almost incomprehensibly – vast and potent threats. In 2006, the prominent Internet security firm Symantec announced that it had detected over 6 million bot-infested computers.16

It is critical that intelligence agents understand the way in which this new type of cybercrime fits into the existing criminal and terrorist framework. Ancheta reportedly earned over $100,000 from Internet advertising companies for permission to access the botnet, and may have rented out the botnet as well.17 The Estonia attack was also carried out via a rented botnet, or more likely, several rented botnets. The attack finally subsided on May 10th, not because Estonian authorities had defeated the hackers and cracked their malicious code, but because the time for which the botnets were rented simply ran out.

Thus, organized crime is an integral component of the cyber threat. Botnets are commonly owned and operated by online gangs like “Botmaster Underground” and turf wars and bot-based extortion are all too common. Intelligence professionals are well aware of the fact that, wherever organized crime runs rampant, the terrorist link is not far away. That many nations, largely in the

5, 2007, [http://www.newscientisttech.com/article.ns?id=mg19426026.000&print=true] 15 Clay Wilson, “Botnets, Cybercrime, and Cyberterrorism: Vulnerabilities and Policy Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, January 29, 2008, at [http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/terror/RL32114.pdf] 16 Ibid. 17 Clay Wilson, “Botnets, Cybercrime, and Cyberterrorism: Vulnerabilities and Policy Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, January 29, 2008, at [http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/terror/RL32114.pdf]

50 Middle East and Southeast Asia, are quickly becoming world leaders in both information technology and anti-American ideology, presents a pressing concern. One fear is that cyberweapons might fall into the hands of terrorists. This scenario should not sound like science fiction. In fact, terrorists have long used cybercrime to plan and fund their objectives. It is clear that advanced technology is playing an increasingly critical role in Al-Qaeda operations:

Ramzi Yousef, who was sentenced to life imprisonment for the previous bombing of the World Trade Center, had trained as an electrical engineer, and had planned to use sophisticated electronics to detonate bombs on 12 U.S. airliners departing from Asia for the United States. He also used sophisticated encryption to protect his data and to prevent law enforcement from reading his plans should he be captured.18

It seems only a matter of time before those who harbor extreme anti-American sentiment and computer mastery find a way to combine those two passions on an unprecedented scale… especially given the vulnerabilities that exist in American military and civilian infrastructure. For example, federal authorities were forced to deal with gaping holes in the Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) system and the Simple Network Management Protocol (SNMP) in recent years, both of which control critical components of American infrastructure. The Congressional Research Service report on Botnets, Cybercrime, and Cyberterrorism explains:

Some experts believe that the importance of SCADA systems for controlling the critical infrastructure may make them an attractive target for terrorists. Many

SCADA systems also now operate using Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) software, which some observers believe are inadequately protected against a cyberattack… In August 2003, the “Slammer” Internet computer worm was able to corrupt for five hours the computer control systems at the Davis-Besse nuclear power plant located in Ohio (fortunately, the power plant was closed and off-line when the cyberattack occurred).19

In 2002, a major vulnerability was discovered in switching equipment software that threatened

18 Ibid. 19 Clay Wilson, “Botnets, Cybercrime, and Cyberterrorism: Vulnerabilities and Policy Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, January 29, 2008, at [http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/terror/RL32114.pdf]

51 the infrastructure for major portions of the Internet. A flaw in the Simple Network Management Protocol (SNMP) would have enabled attackers to take over Internet routers and cripple network telecommunications equipment globally… the security flaw could have been exploited to cause many serious problems, such as bringing down widespread telephone networks and also halting control information exchanged between ground and aircraft flight control systems.20

The terrorist fascination with aircraft is clearly nothing new. In this day and age, though, the intelligence community must focus as much on securing the information technology that controls air travel as on securing aircraft themselves. America and the world can ill afford a vulnerability in SCADA or SNMP to be discovered and exploited by terrorists before it is found and fixed by federal intelligence authorities. This Congressional Research Service report captures another critical part of the cyber threat, the interconnection between military and civilian infrastructure and software. The presence of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) software in government infrastructure is troubling because cybercriminals and terrorists have access to very similar if not identical programs. The fact that about 85% of American infrastructure is privately owned also presents grave security challenges, as private firms often prefer to spend shareholder funds on profit-maximizing innovations instead of costly security measures that may only seem important when it is too late.21

Another worry is that cyberciminals might sell botnets and other cyberweapons to terrorist organizations. This is perhaps a more likely scenario, as most cybecriminals are more interested in making a buck than making jihad against America and its allies. The anonymity that characterizes the black markets in which these sorts of cyber secrets are exchanged could easily place botnets or cyberweapons in hostile hands.

Perhaps the greatest threat of all, however, is that of a coordinated attack. Some experts have expressed the opinion that a massive cyberattack does not fit the Al-Qaeda modus operandi because Al-Qaeda tends to prefer more spectacular attacks that cause real-life bloodshed, thus sending a clearer message to the world. However, a cyberattack would be an ideal way to supplement a conventional attack – perhaps a nuclear, biological, or chemical strike – and amplify its effects by hindering the response effort. Ronald Dick, director of the FBI’s National Infrastructure Protection Center, 20 Ibid. 21 Larry Greenemeier, “The Impact of Cyberwarfare,’”Information Week, June 2, 2007, at [http://www.informationweek.com/news/security/cybercrime/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=199800131]

52 elaborated on this threat:

The event I fear most is a physical attack in conjunction with a successful cyber-attack on the responders' 911 system or on the power grid… [One in which] the first responders couldn't get there . . . and water didn't flow, hospitals didn't have power. Is that an unreasonable scenario? Not in this world. And that keeps me awake at night.22

Espionage, as experienced during Titan Rain, represents another serious danger in cyberspace. The threat of nations or corporations hacking into government computer systems and retrieving classified data is certainly a leading challenge for the intelligence community, as is the growing possibility of an insider stealing vast amounts of data on a flash-drive or other tiny media device that can easily be hidden and smuggled past security checkpoints.

However, in this era of globalization, cyberattacks designed to cripple major transportation or financial infrastructure are more likely to come not from a nation state (China, for example, is almost as dependent on the American financial system as is the United States) but from a rogue group that rejects the world economy altogether.23 The global network of extremists that the United States is currently confronting in the War on Terror fits that description to a downright chilling extent. Testifying before the House Committee on Homeland Security, former NSA Director’s Fellow O. Sami Saydjari described what the aftermath of a massive cyberattack might look like. His poignant description is as frightening as it is critical to 21st century intelligence:

As another day turns to night, looting starts, and the traffic jams get worse. Word begins to spread that the US has been attacked—not by a conventional weapon, but by a cyber weapon. As a result, our national power grid, telecommunications, and financial systems have been disrupted—worse yet, they won’t be back in a few hours or days, but in months. The airports and train stations have closed. Food production has ceased. The water supply is rapidly deteriorating. Banks are closed so people’s life savings are out of reach and worthless. The only things of value now are gasoline, food and water, and firewood traded on the black market. We’ve gone from being a superpower to a third-world nation

22 Barton Gellman, “Cyber-Attacks by Al Qaeda Feared,” Washington Post, June 27, 2002, p. A01 23 Clay Wilson, “Botnets, Cybercrime, and Cyberterrorism: Vulnerabilities and Policy Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, January 29, 2008, at [http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/terror/RL32114.pdf]

53 practically overnight… We are a nation unprepared to properly defend ourselves and recover from a strategic cyber attack.24

Working to ensure that that day never materializes is truly the greatest challenge facing the intelligence community in the coming decade and beyond.

24 O. Sami Saydjaru, “Addressing the Nation’s Cyber Security Challenges: Reducing Vulnerabilities Requires Strategic Investment and Immediate Action,” April 27, 2008 at [http://homeland.house.gov/SiteDocuments/20070425145307-82503.pdf]

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