PAPER 11

" SITING AND URBAN GROWTH by M. HER TAN* and G.E. SMITH o

1. SUMMARY The future growth of urban development in Australia, together with a continued search for a higher stand- ard of living and a better quality of life, would depend to a large extent on an increased supply of . It is estimated that by the end of the century, the installed generating capacity in Australia would range between 80,000 and 120,000 MW which would be accommodated on some 50 to 80 large power station sites. The location of future power stations, however, is becoming increasingly more difficult. As the generating capacity installed at one site increases, the siting requirements, safety criteria and environmental considerations are becoming more complex. Furthermore, as the growth in urban development continues, the availability of suitable sites for large power stations with their associated works and various easments is becoming limited. ,- Co-ordinated planning in the use of available resources, together with a better understanding of our environment and technological advances in generation and transmission of electricity, should reduce some of the problems in future power station siting. .. 2. INTRODUCTION The locations of early power plants in Australia and many overseas countries were generally close to the community centres, supplying the energy needs of the small but developing populations. The power plants were small and,widely scattered about the newly formed cities, while the countryside had no electricity at all. With the growth of urban development, continuing rise in energy demand and rapid technological advances in transmission of electricity, the locations of major power stations shifted in increasing numbers from the load centres to the fuel sources. A new era of hydro-electric development and construction of mine-mouth burning plants in 1 remote locations came into being, while the supply of electricity spread throughout the country. •The continuing growth of modern cities, together with the availability of clean and 'mobile' fuels such as , and a growing acceptance of nuclear generation, are now gradually bringing a return of some of the newer power stations to the load centres. This trend would reduce the problems associated with the acquisition of transmission line easements and provide, in conjunction with the existing stations, a more balanced and reliable supply of electricity. The paper estimates the likely requirements for power station sites in the next three decades, examines the siting criteria for thermal plant installations, discusses the new constraints in the location of major power projects resulting from the growth in urban development and the concern for environment, and mentions some investigations being carried out overseas which, in the future, may alter the relationship between power station siting and urban growth. 3. URBAN GROWTH Demographic studies in Avstralia, United States, and other parts of the world indicate a trend of continuing growth in urban population and size of urban centres. Studies predict that the existing large cities would continue to grow along major transportation routes and eventually join with other nearby population centres to form wide urban corridors. (1)(2)(3) Assuming an average rate of growth of population of about 2% per annum, the existing population in Australia of about 12.7 million,, would increase by the end of the century to some 22.5 million. By that time, it is expected that the proportion of population living in large urban centres (more than 100,000 people each) would have increased from about 65% to about 82% of the total population with some 18!£ million people concentrated in the 15 largest cities in Australia, as shown in Table 1. It is evident *!iat as time progresses, the expanding population would continue to live, work and play close together, and all the stances associated with this population would form part of the same scene. The location of these

* M. Hertan, Power Station Planning Engineer, Planning & Investigations Department, State Electricity Commission of Victoria. ° G.E. Smith, Section Engineer, Nuclear Investigations, Planning & Investigations'igations Department, State Electricity Commission of of Victoria.

1/ services, including generation, transmission and distribution of electricity, would become more complex, and co-ordinated regional planning would be needed for the optimum use of available resources such as land, fuel, and, of course, men.

4. ELECTRICITY DEMAND The urban growth, based largely on industrial expansion and spread of technology, would depend to an increasing extent on use of electricity. The search for a higher standard of living, better quality of life and cleaner environment, would also require an increasing use of electricity. It is predicted that, in the years to come, electricity would have to play a bigger role in solving the problems of urban growth by operation of massive transportation systems, large waste control facilities and plant installations for creating a more pleasant climate. Although it is difficult to forecast a long-term rate of growth in electricity demand, it is anticipated that in the next few decades the electricity consumption would grow at a rate of about three to four times the increase in population, that is, some 6% to 8% per annum. Using these growth rates, the energy consumption in Australia of approximately 44,700 GWh in 1970/71 could range between 250,000 and 400,000 GWh per annum by the end of the century. By then, the electricity generated at power stations, after allowing for transmission and distribution losses, could range between 300,000 and 450,000 GWh per annum, as shown in Table 2.

5. POWER GENERATION 5.1 Generating Plant The development of an efficient and reliable electricity generating system must meet the exacting con- straints resulting from a variable demand and a product which is difficult to store. Demand for electricity varies systematically with the time of the day and season, but is also subject to unpredictable weather changes, special domestic and industrial requirements, etc. The difficulty of storing electricity provides limited flexibility in the generating system, and careful planning is required to maintain the supply and demand of electricity in balance at all times. To meet these constraints, generation of electricity takes place in three main types of plant, designated broadly according to the load they supply; that is, base, intermediate, and peak load. Provision is also made for adequate system reserves to cover the routine and forced plant outages. Assuming an average annual load factor of 50% to 60% for the whole system and plant reserves in the order to 20% to 30% of maximum demand, it is estimated that the installed generating plant in Australia of about 15,000 MW in 1971, could range by the end of the century between 80,000 to 120,000 MW, as shown in Table 2. Based on these estimates, the installed generating plant in Australia should reach 100,000 MW within the next 25 to 32 years. The proportions of base, intermediate and peak load plants likely to be required by the end of the century are shown in Table 3. For this purpose, it is assumed that base load plants operate at more than 60% capacity factor per annum, intermediate load plants between 10% and 60% per annum, and peak load plants at less than 10% per annum.

5.2 Generating Stations The existing 15,000 MW (approx.) of installed capacity in Australia is located in 86 power stalion sites, and consists of more than 500 generating units. The total plant capacity exceeds 100MW at 36 sites and 500 MW at only 7 sites, as detailed in Table 3. The growth of electricity demand and its concentration in large urban centres, together with the growth of interconnection between the States, would enable larger units to be installed in the future and substantially increase the total plant capacity at one location. The growing constraints applied on the location of future power station sites and the high costs associated with the establishment of new generating projects confirm the world-wide trend towards the development of a small number of sites to their full potential consistent with the optimum utilisation of available resources and the ability to meet the environmental standards laid down by the appropriate authorities'. In Australia, generating units of 500 MW have already been ordered for use in Victoria and 660 MW in New South Wales while capacities Gf power stations have reached as much as 1.600 M Wat Hazelwood (Victoria) and should reach 2,000 MW at Liddell (New South Wales) in 1974. In the United States, generating units larger than 1,000 MW are being installed and power stations approaching 10,000 MW are being planned. (4) (5) It is anticipated that by the end of the century, power stations in Australia could have a capacity of 4,000 to 8,000 MW for base load plants., 1,000 to 2,000 MW for peak load plants and somewhere in between those extremes for intermediate load giants. Based on these assumptions, it is estimated that the number of new power stations required in Australia within the next three decades could range from about 50 to 80, as shown in Table 4. The proportions of power station sites likely to be required for base, intermediate and peak load installations are also shown in Table 4. , . :. - . -_ .-._- a-. _._s_...\: 6; POWER STATION SITING-THERMALPLANTS .:. 6.1 Siting Criteria * The power station requirements vary significantly with the fuel used, available water resources, method of integration into the existing transmission system, provision of services, environmental considerations and adopted layout. This paper has been limited to a few relevant aspects related to the siting of thermal power stations, (i) Fuel Fuel forms one of the major components in the cost of and requires careful evaluation with respect to its production, treatment, transport and storage. Fuels likely to be used in the future in Australia are coal, natural gas, oil and nuclear for base load generation; coal, oil and natural gas for intermediate load and various petroleum products and gas for peak load. On-site fuel storages depend on the security of fuel supply and the duty of generating plant and can vary between a few days supply for peak load plants to a few months for base load plants. Table 5 shown typical fuel requirements, method of transport, on-site storages for different types of plant and the transport costs associated with various fuels. (ii) Cooling Water Once-through cooling wafer systems using a river, lake or ocean are preferred because of lower costs and ease of operation. Inland, where water resources are limited and river flows are low, power stations need to rely partly or fully on use of cooling towers or cooling ponds. Mechanical draft towers require more land area than natural draft towers in order to separate the plumes ant! minimise any detrimental effects on nearby works. Cooling ponds require large areas to cchieve adequate cooiing of condenser water, but can also be used for;stream regulation. The cooling water requirements vary with the type of plant, its efficiency and the type of cooling water works used. Large water quantities are required for operation of base and intermediate load power stations as indicated in Table 5. Typical costs for supply and transport of warer are also indicated in Table 5. (iii) Transmission The transmission requirements vary both with the size of installation and the transmission voltage adopted. At higher voltages, fewer lines and hence fewer bays are required in power station switchyards, but. the reductions in area and costs are partly offset by the increased sizes of and circuit breakers. The reduction in number of lines would also ease the problems of laud acquisition.. Typical land requirements, capacity and comparative costs at different line voltages are shown in Table 6. (iv) Site Services The infrastructure associated with a large power station complex can be very extensive and costly. These services normally cover workshops, stores, laboratories, transport, , water, sewerage, etc., as well as amenities and welfare provision for construction and opsrating personnel. (v) Ash Disposal and Spent Fuel The amount of ash to be disposed of varies with the quantity and quality of fuel burned, as well as

?f Development of a satisfactory layout to meet plant siting requirements and local environmental standards . with minimum costs could require extensive investigations. Model studies may be needed to determine the effect of chimney emissions, plumes, noise and cooling water discharges on nearby surroundings. •i -* The area requirements for various types of plant are indicated in Table 8 and typical layouts shown in Plates 1 to 4. i I 6.2 Safety Criteria — Nuclear Reactors ri (i) Regulation Factors in the Selection of Nuclear Plant Sites f The siting of stations in the different countries of the world is stringently regulated to l\ protect public health and other interests. While no such regulations have yet been made within Australia, the Common- li wealth Government has set up a Consultative Committee on Nuclear Energy comprised of officers from the relevant Commonwealth and State bodies to determine the administrative and legal framework necessary for the introduction of nuclear generation. The approval of a site for a nuclear plant involves the determination of maximum dose limits for radiation exposure of nearby population, both for normal operation and in the event of a plant accident, and the development of safety criteria to govern the design, construction and operation of the plant. (ii) Siting Criteria Based on Accident Conditions (a) Plant Safety The provision for protection of the public in overseas countries is normally based on consideration of the maximum credible accident to the reactor and its associated systems. The accident assumed is a large breach in the primary coolant system resulting in loss of coolant and the consequent melt down of the fuel with release of 100% of the volatile fission products and 1% of the solid fission products. Protection against melt down of the fuel is always provided by an emergency core cooling system but this is assumed to have failed to operate. Release of the fission products to the atmosphere is restricted by a reactor containment building designed for a low leakage rate, a system for reducing inside the containment building and a filtering system to remove iodine and participate matter. (7) (8) (9) (11) (12) (b) Population Distribution and Dose To determine the acceptability of a site in so far as the surrounding population is concerned, upper limits are set for radiation exposure under accident conditions. Acceptability is then based on the provision that exposure of the individual and the population can be kept within these limits. This requires that the population be limited in the vicinity of the plant. The area immediately surrounding the plant is normally placed under the authority of the nuclear plant operator and while some activity may be permitted in this area, residence is specifically prohibited. This exclusion area has to be large enough to ensure that the people just outside it may be evacuated in a minimum period - commonly assumed to be two hours. For a station made up of 1,000 MW units an area of approximately one kilometre in radius is required for this purpose. immediately outside the exclusion area, the population and numbers must be sufficiently low and access sufficiently well developed to permit evacuation in the event of an accident which may result in the limits of radiation exposure being reached. Evacuation procedures are considered over an area where an individual, if located . at the point of its outer boundary for the entire period of release of radionuclides, would not receive the limiting radiation exposure. 'i For the purpose of assessing dispersion of the radionuclides over the area surrounding the plant, it is commonly assumed that the accident occurs during a inversion when the wind velocity and dispersion is low and leakage from the containment persists for 30 days. The number of residences which could be required to be evacuated for a plant in a rural area is shown in Table 7. For these conditions a low population evacuation ',/ea of the order of five kilometres radius would be adequate. The maximum integrated population exposure gives a reasonable guide as to how close a site should be to large urban centres and this criteria is used in some countries. (8) (9) The integrated population exposure is calculated for forecasts of population both at the time of commissioning of the plant and at the end of its life assumed some 30 yeaijs later. Conditions of a temperature inversion, a low wind velocity and dispersion over a 30 degree sector are assumed/ ' , The population distributions for possible sites under investigation in Victoria and population distributions for typical sites already approved in a number of countries are shown in Figure 1. (iii) Siting Criteria Based on Normal Operation The main sources of radioactive materials during normal operations are the materials withdrawn from the - primary coolant circuit in the planned auxiliary operations. -. (a) Allowable Discharge of a Radioactive Isotope » The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) suggests permissible daily intakes for the complete range of radionuclides. (10) These permissible levels apply to an individual who on a continuous basis ingests food and water and breathes air contaminated with the radionuclidc. The allowable level of discharge of a radionuclide to the water or air depends upon the dilution factor applicable between the point of discharge and the point of access of the public to the air and water and upon the concentration factor of any intermediary in man's food chain. The allowable discbarge level is ultimately governed by the total dose received by the general population from radionuclides in the various components of his food, water and air. Large variations will occur in actual doses received by individuals for a given nuclide. In practice it is feasible to take account of sources of variability by the selection of one or two groups whose age, occupation, diet, location or recreational habits are such that their exposure is higher than that of the rest of the population. Such a group is called a critical group, and it determines the allowable release from the plant. For liquid effluent discharged to a bay or ocean, the important food chains are the forms of sea life which spend most of their time in areas in which the release is directed. Sea life with high concentrating factors include abalone, oysters and mussels. For airborne discharge, the critical groups are personnel on site or residents at the exclusion boundary and those'who consume food produced in the low population zone. Foods with high concentrating factors include milk, free range eggs, honey and vegetables. (b) Discharge of Radioactive Materials There are many methods of reducing release of radioactive materials during normal operation. Some of the large nuclear plants now operating dispose of the low level liquid waste by discharging it with the cooling water. Later designs are reducing the release of radioactive materials to the environment to a minimum by returning the liquid radioactive waste to the primary coolant system and by delaying the release of radioactive gases for, say, a 30-day period or by compressing them and storing them in containers. High level solid radioactive waste from the primary coolant circuit is stored, for ultimate disposal, in national perpetual storages. The United States Atomic Energy Commission has proposed numerical guidance for limiting the release of radioactive effluents from light water plants to give values "as low as, practicable". The objective is that the dose to an individual at the site boundary, from gaseous or liquid effluents from all plant on a site, be no greater than 5 millirem per year to the whole body or any organ. This level is considerably lower than the limit for members of the public under the existing Australian State Acts, which allow 170 millirem per year from all radionuclides.

6.3 Thermal Power Station Location (i) Base Load Plants The base load plants which form the bulk of any generating system, require adequate power station sites to accommodate the largest generating units which can be safely integrated into the system. These large sites are generally located outside the urban developments. This is particularly true of the large coal burning base load plants which require extensive facilities for transport and storage offuel, as well as disposal of ash, and are normally located close to the coal winning operations. Natural gas and oil, however, can be readily transported and base load stations using these fuels could be located closer to the load if adequate cooling water is available, such as a large river or an estuary. Nuclear plants require only small quantities offuel, and could be located as close to the urban centres as is consistent with safety criteria, available water and environmental considerations. It is generally anticipated that as nuclear power becomes more accepted, these stations would be located closer to urban developments. (ii) Intermediate Load Plant - The intermediate load thermal plants consisted in the past of the older base load units which were assigned to this duty following the installation of larger, more modern and efficient base load units. It is expected that, in the future, special generating units would be installed for this intermediate load duty (e.g., two 500 MW units at Newport, Victoria) and they would form a significant proportion of the new generating system. (13) - •"" The site requirements for these installations vary between those of base load arid peak load plants and if natural gas or }

(iii) Peak Load Plants - ' • " ; > I -- The peak lo * ' t of relatively small gas turbiiie units which need little or no cooling water. :They could be c(\ power station sites spread around the load in the immediate vicinity of '""'transnii" ' • ""r';>"-«x s " «<= <> • =4? ,; r,, (iv) Site Selection . The main parameters affecting me economic evaluation of alternative power station sites are the costs of fuel, water and transmission of electricity. Other parameters of less importance in the developed areas, but fairly significant in the more remote areas of Australia, are access to site and the provision of infrastructure to service the project. Site evaluation studies, using the fuel, water and electricity transport costs shown in Tables 5 and 6, indicate (hat even small departures from the optimum site could result in significant penalties in capital expenditure and operating costs. A suitable power station location must meet the siting and safety requirements, the economic criteria, as well as the zoning regulations covering the existing and future developments in the area. A comprehensive land use plan indicating all the existing resources, established patterns of development, local fauna and flora, area topography, geology, etc., is essential in determining the feasibility of a large power development in a particular area. (4) (5) Some features that make a site particularly suited for a generating plant could also make it well suited for the development of other industrial plants, and competition for choice sites, such as waterfront sites near urban centres could often occur, \yith proper planning, however, multiple use could be made of the same land and resources. Example of typical cases may be — (a) buffer zones: for airports, waste treatment plants, some types of power stations, etc.; (b) corridors: for roads, railways, pipelines and transmission lines, etc.; (c) lakes, , rivers, estuaries: for water supply .navigation, irrigation, recreation and' power generation. Consideration of the environment has become.more important as another prerequisite in the selection of future power station sites. Knowledge of the local meteorological and hydrological conditions as well as the nearby ecosystem is vital in assessing the likely environmental effects of a power project. Standards laid down by appropriate authorities concerning allowable discharges on land, water and air would greatly assist in determining acceptable sites for future power stations. (5) (13) (14) For optimum site selection, contours may be drawn in the area under consideration representing the various land uses and environmental aspects. Indices could be allocated to these contours to indicate the order of preference in the selection of a particular site. Alternatively, the area being investigated may be divided into equal cells of, say, 1 sc[ kilometre, and values allocated to each cell according to its suitability for use as a power station site. The impact of a large power project is not only on the environment but also on the local economy. Large base load power stations of the future, consisting of, say, 4,000 to 8,000 MW of plant installation at one location and requiring an investment of, say $1,000 million to $2,000 million (at present day prices), together with the employment of thousands of people in construction and operation of the stations, would be among the largest establishments in the country, and their locations could materially affect the development in nearby areas. In the past, the large power projects based on the brown coal resources in Victoria and South Australia and the black coal deposits in New South Wales and Queensland, have given a significant impetus to the economy of whole new regions. In view of the impact a large power project could have on the use of available resources, the nearby environment and the economic development of a particular area, early disclosure of long range plans for future plant locations may be necessary. This would give an opportunity to obtain early approval of a project from the local authorities and ensure that the project is considered in the overall planning of the area.

7. FUTURE PROSPECTS * Future developments in technology of power generating plant as well as associated installations such as • cooling vyater works, transport of fuel and transmission of electricity could materially change the siting of power stations itothe years to come. Furthermore, the growing concern for the environment and the size of our urban centres may bring about alternative concepts in planning future cities and new relationships between power station siting and urban growth. (4) (5) Q 4) (15) _-?,.*. Research is being carried out in such technological developments as magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), fusion power, solar cells mounted on a space platform, etc. These esoteric plants, together with the more conventional plants already developed for the use of tidal, wind and solar power, may either reduce or completely eliminate any detri- mental effects on the environment.'To date, these projects are still too experimental, too expensive or tun small to make,any worthwhile contribution in meeting the future load demands. (16) ' _. Investigations are also taking plaqe into the possibility of locating future power plants offshore from the large urban developments, either above water, such as on existing or man-made islands, barges, platforms, etc., or undor water. (14) (17) / Studies are progressing injynimber of overseas countries regarding the possibility of building multi-purpose plants and facilities to share the avaflfblFresources, as well as the necessary control works to minimise the impact on environment. The planned development of 'energy centres' as the basis of new cities where major industries and adequate

I agriculture can be integrated around the population centres presents an opportunity for solving some of the problems facing the urban developments, together with their associated services, such as the supply of power. (18)

8. CONCLUSIONS An assessment of the growth in urban development indicates that by the end of the century there could be about 18% million people living in the 15 largest urban centres in Australia. By then, the electricity consumption could range between 250,000 and 400,000 GWh per annum. The installed generating plant required to supply the growth in electricity demand in Australia could range between'80,000 and 120,000 MW approximately a five and a half to eight fold increase in the installed plant capacity in 1970/71. With the increased size of generating units, however, the number of power stations needed to accommodate the future generating plants is estimated at about 50 to 80 which is less than the number of power stations currently in operation in Australia. At the present time there is some flexibility in selection of power station sites as a result of technological advances in the discovery, development and transportation of fuel, generation of power in large blocks, transmission of electricity at high voltages, and development of alternative types of cooling water works. However, the continuous concentration of load in urban centres, competition for suitable power station sites and other resources, difficulty in acquisition of easements, and the spread of environmental controls are bringing new constraints in the location of major power projects in Australia as well as in many other parts of the world.X 7b In order to reduce the increasing constrains on the location of future power station sites, there is a need for- \ : : (a) co-ordinated regional planning of the available resources such as land, fuel, water, air and, of course, men; (b) • better understanding of the environment and the inter-actions between a power generating plant and its surroundings; (c) further research and development of generating plants and associated works to reduce the siting requirements and impact on the environment; (d) extensive investigations to identify all potential power station sites which would meet the siting and safety requirements, economic criteria and environmental aspects of future generating plants; (e) early revelation of long range plans for future power station locations to obtain public acceptance of these projects and their incorporation in the overall development of the area.

9. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS , The authors wish to thank the State Electricity Commission of Victoria for permission to publish this paper. The authors also wish to acknowledge the assistance of the persons who have participated in the preparation of the tables and illustrations attached to this paper. REFERENCES

1. Marsden, B.S., Urban Land Use in Australia, Australian Geographer, 11,1970.

2. Linge, G.J.R., The Future Discussions of Urban Australia, Australian Financial Review, 19/4/72 and 20/4/72.

3. System Engineering, Study of Power Plants in Outer Urban Area, Electrical World, January 15, 1971, 56.

4. Power Plant Site Selection, Report Sponsored by The Energy Policy Staff, Office of Science and Technology, U.S.A., 1968.

5. Bennett, R.R., Planning for Power - A Look at Tomorrow's Station Sizes, I.E.E.E. Spectrum, September, 1968,67.

6. United States Code of Federal Regulations Reactor Site Criteria Title 10 Part 100 (10 CFR 100) 11 th February, 1961.

7. J.J. Di Niinno, F.D. Anderson, R.E. Baker, R.L. Waterfield, Calculations of Distance Factors for Power and Test Reactor Sites. T.T.D. 14844 USAEC, 1962.

3. Hideo Uchida, Reactor Siting Criteria and Practices in Japan, USAEC Conf. 650201 (1965) 209.

9. F.C. Boyd, Containment and Siting Requirements in Canada, International Atomic Energy Agency Symposium on Containment and Siting of Nuclear Power Plants 71 Vienna, 1967.

10. ICRP Publication 2, Permissible Dose for Internal Radiation, Pergamon Press (1959).

11. C.K. Beck, H.R. Denton, P.A. Morris, D. Thompson, Regulatory Perspectives and Emphasis, and Safety 5 Experience for Nuclear Power Reactors, Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference, Geneva, .September, 1971. 12. Ergen, W.K., German Practices with Respect to Reactor Sitings, Nuclear Safety 10 (1969), 377.

13. Summers, C.M.uThe Conversion of Energy, Scientific American, September, 1971, 149. 14. Bourne, H.K.-, Problems in Power Plant Siting, National Academy of Engineering Forum in Washington, March, 1971. ,! '15. New Hope for Urban Siting of Power Plants, New Cooling Tower Design, Power Engineering, May, 1971,48.

16. Lessing, L., New Ways to More Power with Less Pollution, Fortune, November, 1970, 78.

17. Perspective on Generation, Barge Mounted Nuclear Plants, Electrical World, June, 1971, 63. 18. Study Boosts "Nuplex" Concept, Electrical Worla, August 1, 1971,27. TABLE 1 URBAN POPULATION - AUSTRALIA

Census - 30/6/71 (1) Estimated - Year 2000 (2) Percent Popula- Percent Population Size No. of Popula- No. of of -Urban Centre of Aust. tion of Aust. Urban tion Urban 6 6 Popula- 10 Popula- Centres 10 tion Centres (Approx.) tion 500,000 & over 5 7.4 57.9 5 13.5 60.0 100,000 & over 10 8.2 64.5 15 18.5 82.5 50,000 & over 15 8.5 67.0 25 19.0 85.0 10,000 & over 73 9.7 75.8 140 21.0 94.0 Total Urban Population 516 10.9 85.6 850 21.5 95.0 Total Popula- tion 12.7 100.0 22.5 100.0

Notes: (1) Census results for 30th June, 1971, rounded off. (2) Estimates based on 2% per annum growth from 1971 to 2000 and/the trends in the census results from 30th June, 1966, to 30th June, 1971.

TABLE 2 ELECTRICITY DEMAND - AUSTRALIA

i Electricity Electricity Plant 30th June, 1971 Consumption Generated Installed GWh x 103 - GWh x 103 MW x 103 New South Wales 17.6 17.8 5.0 Victoria . ; 11.0 12.5 2.9 Queensland 4.8 .5.8 1.8 South Australia 3.7 4.3 : ,- i.i Western Australia 2.1 2.6 0.7 Tasmania" 4.8 . 5.3 1.3

Australian Capital and " - • • Northern Territories 0.7 0.2 -.-•• 0.1 Snowy Mountains> - 4.5. . _."..-. 2.2 ;

Total - Australia (1) -'---• , -" 44.7 53.6 •""--: 15.1 S? -f Estimated - Australia Year 2000 j[2) ' , •••„.; 250-400 300r-450 6C-120

Notes:' (1) Electricity Supply Industry in ^Australia - Tables 1, 2 and 6 - figures rounded off.: (2) Estimates based on'growth in electricity consumption of 6% to'8% per angurn; 15%,,to 20% lor.ses in transmission and distribution; < 50% ta}t!60Z system-load factor and 1 20Z1 to, 30% system plant reserves.

rr- TABLE 3

POWER STATION INSTALLED CAPACITY - AUSTRALIA

Installed Capacity - MW x )03 Station Capacity Bcc'i- Load Intennediate Peak Load MW (A.C.F. Load (A.C.F. (A.C.F. Total > 60%) 10/2-60%) < 10%)

10- 100 0.3 0.8 0.7 2.3 100- 500 2.2 3.7 0.5 6.4 500-1,000 1.9 1.5 3.4 > 1,000 2.8 2.8

Total - Australia 7.7 6.0 1.2 14.9 1970/71 (1) Estimated - Aust. 40-60 35-45 5-15 80-120 Year 2000 (2)

Notes: (1) Electricity Supply Industry in Australia - 1970/71 - rage 24. (2) Estimates based on typical load curves and current distribu- tion of plant duties.

TAfLE 4

NUMBER OF POWER STATION SITES - AUSTRALIA

Number of Sites Station Capacity Base Load Intermediate Peak Load (A.C.F. Load (A.C.F. (A.C.F. Total > 60%) 10%-60% < 10%)

10-- 100 U 20 16 50 100- 500 9 18 2 29 500-1,000 3 2 - 5 > 1,000 2 - - 2

Total - Australia 28 40 18 86 1970/71 (1) Estimated - Aust. 20-30 20-30 10-20 50-80 Year 2,000 (2)

Notes: (1) Electricity Supply Industry'in Australia - 1970/71 - Page. 24. v . (2) Estimates based on a gradual increase in the size of generating unit. ._;.---- TABLE 5 TYPICAL FUEL AND WATER REQUIREMENTS & COSTS FOR A 2000 MW THERMAL POWER STATION

Plant Duty =? Base Load Intermediate Load Peak Load Nuclear Oil Or Oil Or Distillate Fuel Used ; Brown Coal Black Coal Black Coal (1) Natural Gas Natural Gas (Gas ) Number and Size of Units 4x500 MW 4x500 MW 2x1000 MW 4x500 MW 4x500 MW 4x500 MW 14x145 MW Annual Capacity' Factor - % 80 80 80 80 40 40 5 Plant - Net Thermal' Efficiency - % 34 37 32 39 34 30 28 A. FUEL Annual Fuel Consumption - Tons 18-22xlO6 4-5xlO6 50-200 3.5-4xl06 2.5-3xlO6 2-2.5x10* 0.3-0.4xl06 ,„ - Cu ft 120-130xl09 70-80xl09 Topical Method of Transpcrt , Conveyor Conveyor Air/Sea Pipeline Conveyor Pipeline Road/Rail Transport Costs-Capital(2) $x 10 /mile 5-6 2-2.5 - 0.15-0.25 2-2.5 0.15-0.25 - 3 - Annual Charges O) $x10 /mile 750-1000 300-400 1-5 15-25 300-400 15-25 10-20 On Site Storages incl. FuelC2) $xlO6 2-3 5-10 20-30 15-20 2.5-5 7.5-10 0.5-1.0 B. WATER Equiv. Rejected to Cooling Water - MW 2800 2700 4200 2600 2800 3000 - Cooling Water Flow - Cusecs. .. 1800-2200 1750-2100 2700-3300 1700-2000 1800-2200 2000-2400 - Cost of Cooling Water Worksu; $xlO6 5-12 4.5-10.5 7-18 5-11 5-12 4-11 - Transport Costs- Capital(2) $xlO6Anile 10-15 9.5-14.5 15-22 9-14 10-15 11-16 - - Annual Charges^3) $xlO3/mile / 1000-2000 950-1900 1500-3000 900-1800 1000-2000 1600-1700 - Make-up Water(*' - Acre ft x 103 p.a. 20-35 19-34 30-52 18-33 10-18 12-20 _ - Cost of Water Supply - $xlO6 p.a. i 0.5-2.5 0.45-2.4 0.7-3.7 0.45-2.3 0.25-1.25 0.3-1.3 — Notes; (1) Nuclear Reactors cover the use of both enriched and natural uranium. (2) Cost estimates refer to direct costs at present day prices. Capital costs vary with topography, foundation conditions, type of works, etc. Cooling water works cover both cooling towers and cooling ponds. Fuel storage covers coal bunkers, oil tanks, etc., and include fuel stored. (3) Annual charges including interest @ 8.5%, depreciation, operation, maintenance and other costs. (4) Make-up water varies with, type of cooling water works, water quality, need for purge, etc. TABLE 6

TYPICAL TRANSMISSION REQUIREMENTS AND COSTS FOR A 2,000 MW STATION

Circuit Voltage 220 kV 330 kV 500 kV 25 100 100 100 Distance from Power Station to Load Centre miles miles miles miles Number of lines • Single Circuit 4 2 Double Circuit 2 3

Total width of easement required (ft) 180 250 500 300

Losses at full load - MK 22 58 61 22 Transmission Cost - Capital^ - $ x 106/ 0.15- 0.20- 0.15- 0.15- mile 0.20 0.25 0.25 0.25 - Annual charges ^ - $ x 103/ mile 15-20 20-25 15-25 15-25 Capital cost of terminal stations(1) - $ x 10$ 8 9 8 12

Notes: (1) Estimates refer to direct costs at present day prices. Estimates vary with topography, alignment, land acquisition, etc. Terminal station works include switchgear and transformation. (2) Annual charges include interest @ 8.5%, operation, maintenance and other costs.

TABLE 7

EVACUATION OF HOUSEHOLDS NEAR A NUCLEAR PLANT DURING ACCIDENT CONDITIONS - RURAL AREA

3-4 kilometres Distance beyond which evacuation is not required (1) (2) Total number evacuated 104 households

-Maximuai^daily-evacuation "~" ' 17 households

Notes: (1) Assumed limiting dose 150 rem to the child's thyroi:'. Dispersion over a 30 degree sector. (2) Assumed household density one per 5 acres. <3): Dose is the quantity of radiation absorbed per vv.xt of mass by the body or by: any portion of the body. ,„._. ._--_^ „_-_-- - Theorem Is a measure of the dose-of any ionizing radip.ion \ to the body tissue in terms of its estimated biolo^xcal ^•\ effect relative to a dose of one roentgen of X-rays. TABLE 8 LAND REQUIREMENTS FOR 2,000 MW THERMAL POWER STATION

Plant Duty ! Base Load Intermediate Load Peak Load Oil or Fuel Used Brown Coal Black Coal Nuclear Black Coal Oil or Distillate Natural Gas Natural Gas - (Gas ) Number and size of units 4 x 500 MW 4 x 500 MW 2x1000 MW 4 x 500 MW 4 x 500 MW 4 x 500 MW 14 x 145 MW Annual capacity/factor - % 80 80 80 80 40 40 5 Area Required -Acres Power station iticl. switchyard 50-100 50-100 50-100 50-90 50-90 50-90 30-50 Fuel storage^ ' _(3) 80-140 _(4) 60-100 40-70 30-50 10-20 Ash disposal 200-400 500-1000 -(4) - 250-500 - - Cooling towers ;, 40-60 40-60 50-80 40-60 40-60 40-60 - Other areas, incl. services, const, 110-140 80-200 200-400 50-100 70-80 30-50 10-30 storage, exclusion zone Total Area \ 400-700 750-1400 300-600 200-350 450-800 150-250 50-100 Additional area for cooling pond^) 1800-2300 1750-2100 2400-3900 1500-1850 1050-1200 950-1250 - Total Area with Cooling Fond 2200-3000 2500-3500 2700-4500 1700-2200 1500-2000 1100-1500 50-100 Notes: (1) Estimates apply to a range of plant types, switchyard voltages and circuit: breaker arrangements. (2) Fuel storages allow for on-site storages of 2-3 months for base load, 1-2 months for intermediate load and 1-2 weeks for peak load. " (3) Brown coal stations located close to an open cut have small on-site storages. Area requirements for open cut, overburden dumps, services, etc., could be in vicinity of 5,000 acres. (4) Both fuel and spent fuel facilities for nuclear stations are included in power station area requirements. (5) Cooling pond area requirements vary with type of plant, local topography, weather conditions, division of main pond into "hot ponds", etc. 1 ^ (T' \ ^ I I f\ i —• til' i -ii. TYPICAL BROWN COAL PROJECTS IN VICTORIA HAZEL-WOOD <600 MW AND MORWELL 170 MW PLATE 3 0 FIG. 1