FORUS PATRONS Team GCC Cycle B

FORUS FORUS PATRONS Team GCC Cycle B

SCENARIO/BACKGROUND As members of Citizens Concerned about Climate Change, we have been granted 10-15 minutes to speak with Senator Inhofe of Oklahoma regarding the implications of climate change, along with some climate background information. The senator’s main concerns lie with the media exaggerating the science behind global warming, his doubts of the accuracy of long-term climate models (Global Climate (Circulation) Models (GCM)), and the legitimacy of human-induced changes to climate along with the high cost of mitigating those human-induced changes.

We are here to advise Senator Inhofe of the science behind climate change including both the environmental and fiscal concerns for Oklahoma and across the country.

The following report addresses the following concerns and their relationship to global climate change.

 The effect of climate change on agriculture, specifically in Oklahoma and the Great Plains

 Oklahoma’s future climate according to current GCMs

 The negative and positive impacts of climate change on Oklahoma, including whether or not there is a potential for industry growth in the state

ANALYSIS

There is a difference between “weather” and “climate”. Weather is a short-term, day-to-day condition of a particular place. It is what the atmosphere is doing over a short period of time (i.e. cloudy, rainy, or sunny; cool or warm today). This atmosphere can be observed and predictions can be made.

Climate is the long-term behavior patterns of the atmosphere; the long term averages of temperatures and precipitations – weather – but climate is brought forth through a complex system of triggers and reactions between earth and the sun through a Feedback process. Feedback can either enhance (positive feedback) or weaken (negative feedback) the effect of climate change triggers, some of which we understand, and some of which we are only beginning to understand. (Manitoba Eco-Network, Climate Change Connection)

The Atmospheric Model Layers below, created by the National Science Foundation, is an example of Feedback process and some of its triggers. You’ll notice the lack of human activity in the illustration. FORUS

Here are other images of model grids/layers from:

Teri Eastburn and Susan Foster, National Center for Atmospheric Research 2006 6th Annual Environmental Health Sciences Summer Institute for K-12 Educators University of Texas, Austin

These are simple models. Scientists are working with much more complex models in attempts to predict weather and climatic changes in hopes that we will be prepare for conditions to come. One must understand that climate models and weather models work in very different ways and utilize different FORUS kinds of data. It would not be accurate to believe that since weather models don’t predict the weather accurately from day-to-day, that climate models (predicting conditions hundreds of years from now) could not do better. Weather conditions can easily change from minute to minute. That is simply not the case with climate, as it based on long-term trends.

“In order to improve weather forecasting, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) promotes the World Weather Watch (WWW) program that modernizes the meteorological services of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) by utilizing the latest results of science and technology under the cooperation of the WMO member countries. The main purpose of the WWW program is to observe weather around the world uniformly. Meteorological satellites that have a capability to observe a wide range of the earth from space are exactly suitable for this role. “The combination of geostationary and polar orbiting meteorological satellites is one of the most important parts of the Global Observation System of the WWW program.”

Reference: EUMETSAT, 2006 F Report of the 34th Meeting of the Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites, CGMS-34.

Current space-based component of the Global observation system

This is one series of tools science is using to monitor atmospheric conditions world-wide. The use of information gathered by satellites has helped scientists conclude that the climate is indeed warming.

When evaluating scientific messages, it is important to ask about the integrity of the information being presented. One such question is whether the scientific community’s confidence in the ideas is accurately portrayed. ”All scientific ideas… are inherently provisional, meaning that science is always willing to FORUS revise these ideas if warranted by new evidence. However, that tentativeness doesn’t mean that scientific ideas are untrustworthy … and this is where some media reports on science can mislead, mistaking provisionality for untrustworthiness…science can’t prove that human activities lead to global warming, but neither can it prove the existence of gravity; yet both ideas are trustworthy and strongly supported by evidence.” (http://undsci.berkeley.edu/article/0_0_0/sciencetoolkit_05 )

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level” (Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)) This statement is a result of climate data and research, some of which has been completed at Oklahoma University and the Oklahoma Climatological Survey (OCS). Your state agency has stated that “The earth’s climate has warmed during the last 100 years; the earth’s climate will continue to warm for the foreseeable future; much of the global average temperature increases over the last 50 years can be attributed to human activities, particularly increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere; and Oklahoma will be impacted” (http://climate.ok.gov/newsmedia/climate_statement.pdf )

Climate change has occurred throughout the history of the earth, we are currently in a warming climate change as the earth has been warming since the end of the last glaciation. The fact that our species has scientific data to lead us to see a potential rapid climatic change indicates we have the capabilities to prepare for the risks that this potentially rapid climate change might bring. Oklahomans know the risk that abrupt changes in a day’s weather’s atmospheric pressure bring over their skies and they have prepared for it by having a designated place for their families to go in the event of a tornado, which happens on a climatic average of 54 times a year (Oklahoma Climatological Survey (OCS)). Oklahomans and the rest of the world can be prepared for the risks (adaptations) that rapid (and not so rapid) climate change will demand.

The data shows that there is 30% more Carbon Dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere than 100 years ago. Green house gases are the term for heat trapping emissions in atmosphere. These emissions are water vapor (H2O) which makes up well over half, Carbon Dioxide (CO2), methane (which have doubled), and nitrous oxide (up 15%). All of these when in our atmosphere act to reradiate solar energy back to earth’s surface, keeping the heat in our atmosphere like a greenhouse keeps heat inside. These greenhouse gases all occur naturally in the atmosphere and in the lithosphere (the ground). Without this greenhouse effect the earth would not be warm enough to sustain life as it is known today. The data has shown an increase in all of these greenhouse gases and data indicates this increase is human-generated (EPA Climate Change and Oklahoma 1998)

Oklahoma businesses have already embraced energy alternatives that will help reduce the green house gasses in the atmosphere and help slow the climatic warming. The clean energy industry in Oklahoma is booming – job growth of 7% the rest of the economy job growth of 2%. 693+ businesses have generated more than 5,400 Oklahoma jobs in the clean energy economy and venture capitalists are investing more than $5 million in Oklahoma’s clean energy businesses. (Pew Charitable Trusts).

ANALYSIS/CAUSAUL CHAINS, with references FORUS B>E>B Clean energy already provides thousands of Oklahoma workers with good jobs during hard times. (Environmental Defense Fund)

B>E>B>E Oklahoma State has potential to grow fiscally. It ranks eighth in the nation, in terms of its potential to produce wind energy, with the ability to provide 17 times the state’s entire annual electricity consumption through well-sited wind farms. (NWF Change the Forecast for Wildlife, Solutions to Global Warming)

B>E>A>H>L On the other hand, unchecked heat-trapping gasses have the potential to have a negative impact upon Oklahoma and the world.

A>H>L>B>A>H>L>B>… Heat trapping gases (aka “greenhouse gases”) in the atmosphere are generally kept in balance because they are part of many cycles that transfer energy throughout Earth’s systems, i.e. the water cycle, carbon cycle, nitrogen cycle, phosphorous cycle sulfur cycle. These cycles transports energy and matter (elements) throughout the Earth’s spheres. Prof. Lori Zaikowski, Chemist http://www.dowling.edu/faculty/Zaikowski/

A>H>A Water vapor is a gas that traps heat in the atmosphere, and it is the largest gas by volume in the atmosphere; however it is relatively quickly cycled through Earth’s spheres due to the water cycle. (Mike Jensen, associate meteorologist at BNL http://www.ecd.bnl.gov/asdrosters.html#jensen)

B>A Carbon dioxide, which is how carbon exists as a gas in the atmosphere, is a concern for climate science because human activity since the Industrial Revolution seems to have influenced its increase. See graphs below.

Keeling Curve http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/keeling_curve/01.html FORUS

Long term Trends in CO2 – Pearson Education, 2000

A Study by the National Wildlife Federation lists Oklahoma’s diverse ecosystems as one of the most vulnerable to global warming.” (NWF Change the Forecast for Wildlife, Solutions to Global Warming).

E>A>H>B>B>$ For monarch butterflies, a species that everyone can recognize, the changing climate(E) could cause its demise if current climatic trends continue into the future. In Mexico, the butterflies (B) amass themselves in fir trees which provide shelter from rain and temperatures which often dip below freezing. As rainfall (H) worldwide continues to increase, the protection that these trees provide may not be enough to shield the butterflies from these hazards. One mass die-off (B) occurred in 2002; scientists fear that this is the first of many similar incidents. Butterflies(B) are crucial to agriculture(B) in their role as pollinator.

E>B>L>B A negative impact from rising temperatures (E) would affect “346 birds, 104 mammals, 171 fish, 80 reptiles and 51 amphibians (B). Rising temperatures in the state will likely change the makeup of entire ecosystems (L), forcing wildlife (B) to shift their ranges or adapt.” (NWF Change the Forecast for Wildlife, Solutions to Global Warming).

E>B>B>H> Oklahoma farmers produce nearly $6 billion annually for the state (NOAA, 2009, Climate Change Report). Climate change (E) could reduce Oklahoma’s wheat yields (B) by as much as 27- 37 percent as temperature rises above the crop’s climate threshold. (NWF Change the Forecast for Wildlife, Solutions to Global Warming). The winter wheat crop(B) may have a longer growing season but still has potential of late freeze damage (H) (OCS).

The charts below show the data of what is at stake for the state of Oklahoma: FORUS

E>H>A>B>B Climate change (E) has potential for loss of tourism (B), Loss of wildlife (B) and habitat (B) could mean a loss of tourism dollars: 2 million people spent nearly $1.3 billion on wildlife viewing, hunting and fishing 2006/Oklahoma. The industry in turn supported 26,530 jobs in the state. (Average of 2001-06 data from the Environmental Defense Fund). Oklahoma has many man-made lakes (H) that FORUS add to the tourist appeal. Warmer temperatures will add to the evaporation (A) of OK limited water supplies which adds to green house gases (E) and dries the forests increasing the potential of wild fire (B).

E>B>$ Climate change (E) would result in warmer summer months would increase the demand for producing power to cool homes and businesses (B)

E>B>$ Climate change (E) would result in warmer winter months decreasing the demands for power associated with heating homes (B) (OCS)

E>H>B>H Average temperatures in Oklahoma have already risen almost one degree in the last 15 years (OCS) climate change (E) has triggering fluctuations in precipitation (H), causing extreme weather events such as droughts in the western part of the state and floods in central and eastern OK (OCS). Hotter springs and summers could increase the need for irrigation (H) for agriculture (B). The water table of OK in entirely a basin that feeds the Mississippi River and is mostly ground water in the west and surface water in the east. (OCS). There will be a competition between the needs pf livestock, crops, forests, urban communities and the reservoirs for the limited water supply. Oklahoma shares this concern with many growing communities around the world. (IPCC)

References:

Statement on Climate Change (2009). Oklahoma Climatological Survey. Retrieved October 30, 2009, from http://climate.ok.gov/newsmedia/climate_statement.pdf

Census of Agriculture (2008). State Agriculture Overview, State of Oklahoma. Retrieved October 30, 2009, from http://www.mass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_STate/Ag_Overview/AgOverview_OK.pdf Center for American Progress (2007). The Top Affects of Global Warming. Retrieved October 23, 2009, from http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/09/climate_100.html Cline, W. R. (2008). Global Warming and Agriculture. Retrieved October 23, 2009, from http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2008/03/cline.htm

Eastburn, T. and Foster, S. National Center for Atmospheric Research. 6th Annual Environmental Health Sciences Summer Institute for K-12 Educators. University of Texas, Austin,TX. 2006.

Keeling Curve Retrieved on October 20, 2009 from http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/keeling_curve/01.html FORUS McGuffie, K. and A. Henderson-Sellers 1997. A Climate Modeling Primer (John Wiley & Sons) 253pp. (reference for comment regarding difference between GCMs and NWP models)

National Wildlife Federation (2009). How Does Global Warming Affect Wildlife? Retrieved October 23, 3009, from http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp- dyn/content/graphic/2007/09/15/GR2007091500124.html

Washington Post (2007). Animals Struggle with Effects of Global Warming. Retrieved October 23, 2009, from http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2007/09/15/GR2007091500124.html

PROBLEM STATEMENT The earth is experiencing unprecedented climate change in direct response to the heat trapping gasses in the atmosphere. Every person, has the ability to reduce green house gasses in some way. Will we embrace the opportunity to make this planet a better place for all living thing by taking positive steps now or wait to see what happens?