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Spacecraft Conjunction Assessment and Collision Avoidance Best Practices Handbook

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Spacecraft Conjunction Assessment and Collision Avoidance Best Practices Handbook National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASA Spacecraft Conjunction Assessment and Collision Avoidance Best Practices Handbook December 2020 NASA/SP-20205011318 The cover photo is an image from the Hubble Space Telescope showing galaxies NGC 4038 and NGC 4039, also known as the Antennae Galaxies, locked in a deadly embrace. Once normal spiral galaxies, the pair have spent the past few hundred million years sparring with one another. Image can be found at: https://images.nasa.gov/details-GSFC_20171208_Archive_e001327 ii NASA Spacecraft Conjunction Assessment and Collision Avoidance Best Practices Handbook DOCUMENT HISTORY LOG Status Document Effective Description (Baseline/Revision/ Version Date Canceled) Baseline V0 iii NASA Spacecraft Conjunction Assessment and Collision Avoidance Best Practices Handbook THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv NASA Spacecraft Conjunction Assessment and Collision Avoidance Best Practices Handbook Table of Contents Preface ................................................................................................................ 1 1. Introduction ................................................................................................... 3 2. Roles and Responsibilities ............................................................................ 5 3. History ........................................................................................................... 7 USSPACECOM CA Process .............................................................. 8 SSN Tracking Functionality Description ................................. 8 USSPACECOM CA Screening Timeline and Process.......... 10 Data Sharing with Other O/Os .............................................. 10 SSA Sharing Agreements ..................................................... 11 NASA Partnership with USSPACECOM ........................................... 11 4. Spacecraft and Constellation Design .......................................................... 13 Ascent to / Disposal from the Constellation’s Operational Orbit........ 13 General Orbit Selection: Debris Object Density ............................... 14 Vehicle and Constellation Specific Orbit Selection: Spacecraft Colocation ......................................................................................... 15 Launch-Related Conjunction Assessment ........................................ 16 Spacecraft Trackability ..................................................................... 17 Spacecraft Reliability ........................................................................ 18 Development of Capabilities for Ephemeris Generation and CA Risk Assessment and Mitigation ............................................................... 18 5. Pre-Launch Preparation and Early Launch Activities .................................. 21 CONOPS Discussions and Arrangements with USSPACECOM Pertaining to Launch Phase .............................................................. 21 CONOPS Discussions and Arrangements with USSPACECOM and NASA Pertaining to On-Orbit Mission Phase .................................... 23 CONOPS Discussions and Arrangements with USSPACECOM and NASA Pertaining to Conjunction Assessment ................................... 24 In situ Launch Products and Processes ............................................ 26 v NASA Spacecraft Conjunction Assessment and Collision Avoidance Best Practices Handbook 6. On-Orbit Collision Avoidance ...................................................................... 27 Spacecraft Information and Orbital Data Needed for CA .................. 27 CA Screenings .................................................................................. 30 CA Risk Assessment ........................................................................ 31 CA Risk Mitigation ............................................................................ 34 Automated Trajectory Guidance and Maneuvering ........................... 37 Other Considerations ........................................................................ 38 7. Contact Information .................................................................................... 40 Appendix A. Acronyms ...................................................................................... 41 Appendix B. Glossary ........................................................................................ 44 Appendix C. Best Practices List ........................................................................ 46 Appendix D. Best Practices for NASA Missions ................................................ 55 Appendix E. Use of Analytic Theory Orbital Data in Conjunction Assessment .. 69 Appendix F. Expected CA Event Rates ............................................................. 73 Appendix G. Orbital Debris Density ................................................................... 75 Appendix H. Satellite Colocation Analysis ......................................................... 79 Appendix I. Satellite Covariance Realism Assessment Procedures .................. 84 Appendix J. CARA CA Risk Assessment Tools Validation ................................ 95 Appendix K. R-15 Message ............................................................................... 96 Appendix L. Commercial Data in NASA Conjunction Assessment .................... 99 Appendix M. Use of the Probability of Collision (Pc) as the Risk Assessment Metric for Conjunction Assessment .......................................................... 101 Appendix N. Pc Calculation Approaches ......................................................... 108 Appendix O: Collision Consequence ............................................................... 134 Appendix P: Event Actionability ....................................................................... 140 Appendix Q. List of Works Cited ...................................................................... 154 vi NASA Spacecraft Conjunction Assessment and Collision Avoidance Best Practices Handbook List of Figures Figure 3-1 Locations and Types of SSN Sensors and Nodes ............................. 9 Figure E-1 MD Distributions for Critical (Pc > 1E-04) and Non-critical (Pc < 1E-04) Events .......................................................................................... 70 Figure E-2 eGP and Regular SGP4 Errors: LEO > 500 km (log scale) ............ 71 Figure E-3 Expansion of Figure E-1 to Include CDFs for Pc Thresholds of 1E-03 and 1E-02 ............................................................................................... 72 Figure F-1 CA Event Frequencies as a Function of Orbit Regime and Event Severity ................................................................................................... 74 Figure G-1 Debris Flux as a Function of Orbit Inclination, Orbit Altitude, and Object Size ........................................................................................................ 76 Figure H-1 Cartesian, Inertial, Earth-centered Position Vectors ........................ 79 Figure H-2 Numerical vs. Analytic (Linear) α for Highly Eccentric Orbit ............ 81 Figure H-3 Co-planar Orbits with One Circular and One Ellpitical ..................... 81 Figure H-4 Primary Object Tool Inputs .............................................................. 82 Figure H-5 Tool Output for Synodic Situation .................................................... 83 Figure H-6 Tool Output for Elliptical Case ......................................................... 83 Figure N-1 Relative Positions and Uncertainties of Two Objects ................... 109 Figure N-2 Combining the Sizes of the Primary and Secondary Objects ........ 110 Figure N-3 Geometry at TCA .......................................................................... 110 Figure N-4 Representation of the Conjunction Plane ...................................... 111 Figure N-5 Comparison of Monte Carlo Collision Probabilities with the 2D-Pc Method (left) and the 3D-Nc Method Introduced Here (Right), for a Large Set of CARA Conjunctions ................................................................. 114 Figure N-6 Cumulative 3D-Nc Risk Over Four Repeating Conjunctions .......... 115 Figure N-7 Behavior of Relative Density Error by Perigee Height and Solar Activity ............................................................................................................. 117 Figure N-8 Two-phase Application of Consider Parameters ........................... 119 Figure N-9 Profiles of 250 Conjunctions with Primary and Secondary Satellites of Non-negligible Drag ..................................................................... 122 Figure N-10 3D-Nc Temporal Risk Plot with Monte Carlo Result Overlay (in Pink) ........................................................................................................... 126 vii NASA Spacecraft Conjunction Assessment and Collision Avoidance Best Practices Handbook Figure N-11 Mismatch between Elongated In-track Covariances and Forced Cartesian Ellipsoidal Representation .................................................. 127 Figure N-12 Comparative Results of 373 High-Pc Conjunctions ..................... 129 Figure N-13 Comparative Results of 44,000 Conjunction Events ................... 130 Figure O-1 Range of Debris Production Possibilities ...................................... 136 Figure O-2 Confidence in NanoSat Mass Ratio .............................................. 138 Figure O-3
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