st QUARTER REVIEW 2018 Qatar Real Estate Market www.valustrat.com VPI ValuStrat Price Index Residential Since the ValuStrat Price Index (VPI) began tracking in January 2016, Qatar residential prices have witnessed a fall in values. By benchmarking the index from Q1 2016 at 100 points, we found that values continue to fall displaying market corrections nationwide. The first quarter 2018 VPI displayed overall 9.4% annual and 1.6% quarterly declines. Villas and freehold apartments saw quarterly price declines of 1.6% and 1.7%, respectively. Whilst a few locations saw marginal declines, others experienced steeper falls. Quarterly capital depreciation between 0.4% and 2.7% was seen in clusters of Al Wakrah, Al Khor, Umm Salal Mohammad, Old Airport, Al Thumama, Al Waab, West Bay Lagoon, New Al Rayyan/Muaither and declines of 4% to 4.4% were seen in Ain Khalid/Abu Hamour and Umm Salal Ali. Gross yields for residential units averaged at 4.8%, with 6.0% for apartments and 4.2% for villas. ValuStrat Price Index 13 Villa and 3 Apartment Locations in Qatar [Base: Q1 2016=100] 120 100 100 96.3 94.2 90.9 89.8 87.2 84.9 82.7 81.3 80 60 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2016 2017 2018 Source: ValuStrat 1 | Qatar Real Estate Market 1st Quarter 2018 Review MacroEconomicSnapshot • Government launched a second National Development Strategy (2017-2022) in which they prioritised six sectors; manufacturing, tourism, logistics, financial services, information and communication and scientific research • Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 1.8% YoY (QAR 204.2 billion), driven by growth in non-hydrocarbon sector of 3.7% YoY in Q4 2017 - latest estimates released by Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics • Population is estimated at 2.68 million 1,836,000 2,045,000 2,235,000 2,421,000 2,597,000 2,641,000 2,685,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-Q1 Qatar Population Source: Ministry of Development Planning & Statistics Consumer Price Index vs. Housing Index • Qatar Central Bank increased January 2015 – YTD deposit rate by 25 basis points after US Federal Funds rate increment by the same amount • International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted GDP to grow by 2.6% during 2018 based on Qatar’s move to increase gas production by 30% • In line with a 20% increase in oil prices, oil export revenues and imports expanded 23.3% YoY and 4.2% YoY, respectively • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased 0.5% YoY and increased Jul Jul Jul Oct Oct Oct Jan Apr Apr Apr Feb Jan Jan Jan Jun Jun Jun Feb Feb Feb Sep Sep Sep Mar Nov Dec Nov Dec Nov Dec Aug Aug Aug Mar Mar Mar May May May 0.37% QoQ. Transport, Education, 2015 2016 2017 2018 Food & Beverage and Health were the main drivers of quarterly General Index (2013=100) inflation Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels • Housing and Utility Expenses Index Source: Ministry of Development Planning & Statistics decreased 5.2% YoY and 0.5% QoQ www.valustrat.com | 2 ResidentialSupply 400 • Total housing stock by the end of 2017 was Qatar Residential Supply approximately 286,125 units. For Q1 2018, 2015-2019 350 nearly 1,200 units were added 2015 (‘000 UNITS) 300 • Apartment supply consisted of 960 units 250 coming from new additions in Lusail, Fereej 275 200 Bin Mahmoud, Al Sadd and Najma 150 2016 280 • Completion of villa compounds in Ain Khalid, Al Maamoura and Umm Salal Ali added 240 new units to the total stock 286 2017 • An estimated 13,000 units are projected to 286 be completed by the end of 2018, assuming 14.2 no construction delays. These include 14 high rise apartment blocks on The Pearl and 150 36 apartment buildings in Lusail 2018E 300 200 5.4 250 300 2019E Existing 350 Expected Supply* 467 400 *May be subject to significant downward adjustment depending on construction delays Source: Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics, MEED Projects, ValuStrat ResidentialSales • YoY and QoQ median transacted prices for Residential Median Transacted Prices residential houses reduced by 5.67% • Transaction volume for houses declined 14% YoY and 13% QoQ • Total value of housing transactions -5.7% 1% Last Year Last 6 Months amounted to QAR 1.4 million. The five largest ticket sizes were seen in The Pearl, Muraikh, New Al Salata, Rawdhat Al Hamama and Al Mashaf for developed plots ranging from 1,500 sq m to 7,500 sq m • Majority of transactions were in Al Rayyan -5.7% (29%) followed by Doha (21%), Al Daayen Last Quarter (20%) and Umm Salal (12%) Source: Ministry of Justice, ValuStrat • There were 30 transactions for residential buildings with 45% transactions above the median ticket price (QAR 9,000,000) concentrated in The Pearl, Fereej Abdul Aziz and Old Airport 3 | Qatar Real Estate Market 1st Quarter 2018 Review ResidentialRents • Compared to 2017, median asking rents Residential Asking Rents declined 11.8% YoY and 3% QoQ • Median monthly asking rents for apartments fell by 2% QoQ. The highest quarterly fall in rentals was seen in West Bay, Old Airport, Lusail and Al Sadd • Median monthly asking rents for villas fell by 7% QoQ -11.8% -6% Last Year Last 6 Months • Mid quality villa locations experienced the highest quarterly decline ranging from 5% to 11% • An emerging flight to quality is becoming apparent as QoQ falls in rental values appear steeper in secondary locations as compared to high end neighbourhoods, as -3% more tenants vacate and trade up Last Quarter • Typical monthly leasing rates for a two bedroom apartment are QAR 9,500-17,000 in The Pearl and QAR 6,000-9,000 in Lusail Source: ValuStrat Median Monthly Asking Rent (QAR) Median Monthly Asking Rent (QAR) &Quarterly Change (%) - Apartments & Quarterly Change (%) - Villas 9,000 11,000 The Pearl 11,000 -4% Al Muraikh 11,750 -7% 14,000 14,000 6,750 13,000 Al Sadd 7,250 -3% Al Waab 15,000 -6% 9,750 16,000 6,000 10,000 Al Mansoura 6,250 0% Abu Hamour 13,000 -11% 6,500 14,500 7,500 18,250 Fereej Bin West Bay 8,000 -1% 20,000 -5% Mahmoud Lagoon 9,250 23,000 6,250 8,000 Lusail 7,500 -3% Al Wakrah 9,000 -4% 9,000 12,500 One Bedroom Three Bedroom Three Bedroom Five Bedroom Two Bedroom Quarterly Change (%) Four Bedroom Quarterly Change (%) Source: ValuStrat Source: ValuStrat www.valustrat.com | 4 OfficeSupply • As of Q1 2018, the total estimated Qatar Office Supply Gross Leasable Area (GLA) of Qatar’s 2015-2019 office supply stood at 3.94 million sq m (Million sq m GLA) • Five office buildings were added this 0.58 quarter with two in Lusail (Energy City) 0.96 and one each in Fereej Bin Mahmoud, 4.85 Al Muntazah (C Ring Road) and Al 3.89 3.5 3.89 Aziziya (Salwa Road), comprising 3.0 50,000 sq m GLA • An estimated 910,000 sq m is in the 2018 pipeline, with at least 70% concentrated in Lusail 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Existing Stock Expected Supply Source: MEED Projects, ValuStrat OfficePerformance • Compared to 2017, median office Office Median Asking Rent (QAR/sq m) asking rents fell 17.5% YoY and 9% and Quarterly Change (%) QoQ • Median asking rents per sq m per 0% -2% -6% -9% -11% -17% 0% month in West Bay were QAR 145, while QAR 122 in C/D Ring Roads and 145 QAR 117 in Lusail • Al Sadd witnessed a significant drop in 122 QoQ median asking rents, resulting 117 110 from below market listing prices on 105 new space being used to help 100 95 encourage occupancy rates • Citywide increases in vacancies, and new supply stock, is creating downward pressure on office rentals in secondary locations West Bay C/D Ring Lusail Citywide Grand Al Sadd Salwa Road Hammad Road Avenue Median Asking Rate (QAR/sq m) Quarterly Change (%) Source: ValuStrat 5 | Qatar Real Estate Market 1st Quarter 2018 Review RetailSupply • Palms Mall (6,384 sq m GLA) in Muaither Retail Malls & Shopping Centres was completed, expected to feature 32 retail (‘000 sq m GLA) units, 12 restaurants and an entertainment centre 330 • Tawar Mall was officially launched comprising 91,000 sq m GLA • As of Q1 2018, total supply of organised retail space reached 1.76 million sq m, with 197 415,000 sq m GLA (5 malls) in the pipeline for the remaining quarters • Approximately 100,000 sq m GLA of unorganised retail space (street retail stores, supermarkets and traditional souqs) is projected for completion by end of 2018 • Based on GLA and population figures, 22 shopping centre GLA of Qatar is 667 sq m per 1,000 capita compared to the GCC average of 580 sq m per 1,000 capita 6 161 591 981 30 Neighbourhood Community Regional Super Regional 3k-10k sq m 10k-30k sq m 30k-90k sq m > 90k sq m Existing Stock Expected Supply (till 2019) Source: ValuStrat RetailDemand&Performance • Local companies accounted for 33% of Distribution of GLA of Shopping e-commerce transactions (QAR 4.7 billion) in Centers/Malls Across Municipalities 2017, as per latest statistics released by Ministry of Transport and Communications 41% • The 2nd edition of Shop Qatar festival resulted in increased footfall in all 13 38% participating super regional and regional malls • Despite an influx of supply, rents and occupancy rates remained stable among prime shopping destinations • Median monthly rents per sq m were QAR 400 for small line shops (less than 100 sq m) 15% and QAR 280 for large line shops (250-500 sq m) • Effective rents were negatively impacted by 3% 3% landlords offering increased incentives to existing tenants, in an effort to maintain occupancy rates in the midst of increased competition from new supply Al Khor Al Wakra Umm Salal Doha Al Rayyan Source: ValuStrat www.valustrat.com | 6 HotelSupply • Total number of hotel rooms and Hotel Room Supply apartments stood at 26,246 keys within 134 2015-2019 establishments