TO: Interested Parties s1

TO: Interested Parties FR: DCCC Communications RE: New York Primary DA: 9/13/06

“New Yorkers will choose change this November because Republicans in the state have become rubber stamps for failed leadership in Washington,” said DCCC chairman Rahm Emanuel. “The Republican Congress has failed to secure our borders, failed to pass legislation that would slow the soaring cost of gas and failed to address the needs of middle class New Yorkers trying to find good paying jobs. They’ve walked in lock-step behind a White House that has failed to come up with a strategy for success in Iraq and when faced with the prospect of two more years, voters in New York will choose to go in a new direction.”

Background: New York stands to be one of the most fertile grounds for change this November. With at least six incumbents being put to the toughest tests they’ve faced and a moderate open seat, in a cycle where voters are looking for a new direction, Democrats are well positioned for gains in New York this November. Democrats will benefit from a strong top of the ticket with Senator Hillary Clinton and Attorney General Elliot Spitzer focused on turning out the Democratic vote in the upstate swing districts.

Turnout: Democrats in New York are excited to send a message to George Bush and the Republican Congress. Despite only a handful of competitive primary races, hundreds of thousands turned out to support Democrats statewide sending the sign that the grassroots machine is ready for action in November.

In the 19th district, more than 21,000 (509 of 526 precincts reporting) Democrats turned out to support four congressional candidates representing a turnout increase of 100% over the primary in 2004. (19th CD: Dem Primary – 9,373). In NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds’ district 65% of voters supported Democrat Jack Davis’ campaign for the Independence Party line signaling a major bump in the road for Reynolds’ re-election effort. In 2004, the Independence Party line was worth approximately 3% of the vote in the general election.

Spending: Republican incumbents John Sweeney, Tom Reynolds, Randy Kuhl and Jim Walsh have all been up on the air with commercials earlier than ever before. Combined, the Republican incumbents in the state have spent more $2.7 million in 2006 alone fighting for their own survival.

NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds has even been forced to spend the summer campaigning for his own re-election effort in his district instead of traveling the country fundraising and campaigning for vulnerable House incumbents.

DISTRICT by DISTRICT

NY-19 After a competitive primary, John Hall emerged as the clear choice of families in the 19th district. With the united support of Democrats throughout the district, John Hall stands a strong chance against Sue Kelly. Kelly votes with the President 75% of the time supporting him on special interest legislation like the Medicare Rx Drug bill. It is clear that Bush needs loyal foot soldiers like Sue Kelly to return to Congress in order to succeed with his plan to privatize Social Security and continue putting the special interests ahead of the interests of New York families.

NY-24: The seat being vacated by moderate Republican Sherwood Boehlert after nearly 24 years in office is the top pick up opportunity for Democrats in the state. State Senator Ray Meier is the Republican candidate with a record of voting 99% of the time with corrupt Republican leadership in Albany. Meier has a record of opposing a raise to the minimum wage, a position that the Republican leadership in Washington holds fast to. He is the handpicked choice of NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds and has even received help from Dick Cheney for his campaign.

Arcuri will run on the Democratic, Working Families and Independence Party lines in November. A new non-partisan poll conducted by Constituent Dynamics and RT Strategies, shows likely voters supporting a Democratic congressional candidate 53% to 38% over a Republican one in the 24th District. These results demonstrate growing support from Arcuri’s early August polling, which showed him leading Republican Ray Meier 40% to 36%. Information on that poll can be viewed here: http://www.arcuriforcongress.com/breaking_news/index.php#news138.

NY-20: From ethics problems to questions about his behavior, Republican incumbent John Sweeney has been under fire this year and it appears that “Congressman Kickass", as President Bush fondly refers to him, has worn out his welcome. While voting in lockstep with President Bush on the War in Iraq, Sweeney has also managed to tangle himself in a series of scandals involving lobbyist paid ski trips and lavish yachting adventures while his biggest legislative accomplishment appears to be a bill addressing the needs of horses.

Even while Sweeney’s campaign runs one of the most negative attack machines against a challenger in the country targeting his opponent’s family and personal life, recent polls in the district show Kirsten Gillibrand within striking distance with a narrow eight point gap.

NY-26: Republican incumbent Tom Reynolds likes to talk about how all politics is local, and that in his district, jobs are what is on the minds of voters. Reynolds has his own re-election problems with a struggling economy that has lost thousands of jobs since Bush took office and the challenge of running against self-funding opponent who has also stolen the Independence Party line.

Tom Reynolds, the incumbent and endorsement recipient in his past campaigns decided not to seek the Independence Party endorsement. Citing concerns that he could lose the general election if he lost this Independence Primary, he withdrew and put up a proxy opponent to face Jack Davis. Generally, the endorsement goes to the Republican incumbents and has gone to Tom Reynolds almost every time. This year, the Independence Party chose Jack Davis, and Reynolds’ decision not to seek the endorsement is a sign that he is in trouble. In 2004, the Independence line counted for approximately 3% of the vote in 2004.

Amherst Times EDITORIAL: Tom Reynolds, The Coward We All Know (9/10/06): Thomas Reynolds, the coward, decided not to face Jack in the IP primary on September 12th. If he ran but lost the IP primary he would most likely lose the major race for Congress. As Tuesday’s Primary election nears we see and hear more and more comical ads from Reynolds, the man who has voted for all the tariffs his ads accuse his opponent, Jack Davis, of wanting to revoke. Reynolds is THE man in Washington who has cost our area a great deal by not procuring any projects, or very little work, for Amherst and the surrounding area. Tom Reynolds decided it was too dangerous for himself to run in the IP Primary on Sept. 12 because of his chances of losing to such a powerful opponent as Jack Davis. [Amherst Times, 9/10/06]

NY-29: The news broke this week that Randy Kuhl will be hosting Vice President Dick Cheney in the upcoming weeks for a fundraiser to aide his campaign. Navy War Veteran and cancer survivor Eric Massa has been running a strong campaign focused on his commitment to changing the failed policies of Kuhl and the Republican Congress on Iraq. After Kuhl returned from Iraq last month, he painted a rosy picture of the progress even while US military commanders testified on the same day that the country was headed for a civil war. Massa was recently joined by Max Cleland on the campaign trail in calling for Congress to implement the bi-partisan 9-11 Commission recommendations.

NY-25: Dan Maffei won the Working Families Party primary last night with 70% of the vote securing his name on another party line in November. Dan Maffei has run a strong race to the general election focused on holding Walsh accountable for his opposition to increasing the minimum wage, Walsh’s abysmal record on veteran’s issues and his strong support for the President’s failed policies in Iraq. During the last six years, Walsh has voted with the President almost 90% of the time, while representing a district won by John Kerry. With massive job losses across western New York, Maffei has also been strong proponent of stem cell research highlighting not only the medical, but the financial benefits the science could offer to the economy of Syracuse and the surrounding areas.

NY-03: Dave Mejias is running an aggressive campaign against Bush’s loyal lapdog Peter King. Peter King’s approval numbers have held steady under 50%, while Mejias has built momentum off of his popularity as a Nassau County legislator and his successful fundraising operation that has raised more than $400,000 since he entered the race just three months ago. Long Island has been trending Democratic in recent years. Long Island now has two Democratic County Executives, two democratically controlled county legislatures, and two Democratic District Attorneys. Last year, Dennis Dillon, the 31 year incumbent Republican DA in Nassau, considered a law enforcement legend, was defeated by a Democratic newcomer.