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Morning Wrap Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 23 Nov 2015 Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article Playtech Announces termination of Plus500 acquisition and Company Events trading update 24-Nov Greencore; Mitchells & Butlers; FY15 Results UDG Healthcare; Q4 2015 Results Bank of Ireland Redemption of Preference Shares on 4 26-Nov Marston's; FY15 Results 27-Nov Origin Enterprises; Q1 2016 Results January 2016 30-Nov ARYZTA; Q1 trading update AIB Group Number of upgrades announced by Moody’s Euro Economic View Euro falls to 7 month low versus the dollar amidst diverging policy Economic Events Ireland 25-Nov Property Prices YoY 27-Nov Retail Sales Volume YoY United Kingdom 25-Nov BBA Loans for HOuse Purchase Autumn Spending Review 27-Nov GfK Consumer Confidence GDP YoY United States 23-Nov US Manufacturing PMI 24-Nov GDP Annualised QoQ Consumer Confidence Index Europe 23-Nov Eurozone manufaturing PMI Eurozone Composite PMI Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers (trading as Goodbody) is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate Goodbody Stockbrokers. Please see the end of this report for analyst certifications and other important disclosures. Goodbody Morning Wrap Playtech Announces termination of Plus500 acquisition and trading update Playtech has this morning announced that its proposed acquisition of Plus500 will not Recommendation: Buy proceed. Playtech had been in active dialogue with the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), Closing Price: £8.52 from whom it was seeking approval. Following discussions late on Friday afternoon the board of Playtech has come to the conclusion that the steps being proposed to address the Gavin Kelleher +353-1-641 0423 concerns of the FCA will not be sufficient to satisfy the FCA in advance of the longstop date [email protected] of December 31st 2015. Under the terms of the agreement with Plus500, Plus500 had the right to terminate the agreement if completion would not occur by the longstop date. The statement notes that Playtech has no immediate plans with respect to its existing 9.9% holding in Plus500. Also in the statement is an update on the acquisition of Ava Trade. It is noted that the sellers of Ava Trade, a privately held company, retain the right to terminate the agreement as a result of the Central Bank of Ireland opposition to the deal. While the sellers have not yet exercised this right, the statement notes that the risk of them doing so is now increased following the termination of the Plus500 acquisition. In a brief trading update, the group confirmed it continues to enjoy double-digit underlying growth in its gaming division with a strong pipeline of opportunities. However, as a result of the termination of the Plus500 acquisition the financials division, Markets Ltd, is unlikely to meet near to medium term expectations. Following termination of talks the group will have significant cash balances (with the deal not happening we conservatively estimate at least €750m net cash at FY15 y/end). The group notes that it is evaluating its options taking into account availability of suitable value-enhancing acquisitions across the business. Given the scale of the acquisition, the termination of the Plus500 deal will be viewed as negative for the group. The issues that were causing concern for the FCA have not been released and are likely to remain confidential, which will do little to reduce uncertainty. We had removed AvaTrade from our forecasts after Q3 numbers and we will now remove Plus500. This will bring our FY16 EBITDA forecast to €297m from €383m. However, we would note a few things that should provide support should the shares find themselves well below Friday’s close (852p). These include (i) there has been increased uncertainty around this deal for the last number of months so this announcement should not come as a complete surprise; (ii) we do not believe the market had attached a significant proportion of upside on the back of this deal; (iii) our base case valuation suggests upside (894p per share, or 913p including 9.9% of Plus500 stake); and (iv) with the deal now off, the group has a significant cash pile that could be used to undertake value enhancing deals in gaming and/or return cash to shareholders. Home… Page 2 23 Nov. 15 Goodbody Morning Wrap Bank of Ireland Redemption of Preference Shares on 4 January 2016 Bank of Ireland announced this morning that it will redeem the remaining €1.3bn of Recommendation: Buy Preference Shares on the 4th of January 2016. This is in line with our expectation that BOI Closing Price: €0.34 would call the Prefs in December, allowing it to de-recognise the shares from the earliest Eamonn Hughes date possible (1 January 2016). According to the announcement, the redemption does not +353-1-641 9442 affect the CET1 ratio, however, the Capital Ratio will decline from 20.7% to 18.2% (as at 30 [email protected] September 2015). The redemption of the preference shares is a positive development. In our view, it represents the final step of capital normalisation prior to the payment of dividends, which we anticipate will coincide with the FY16 results. Home… AIB Group Number of upgrades announced by Moody’s Moody's today announced a number of upgrades for AIB. In particular, Moody’s upgraded Recommendation: N/R AIB’s senior unsecured debt ratings to Ba1 from Ba2, leaving it just one notch below Closing Price: €0.04 investment grade. In addition, the rating agency upgraded AIB's long-term deposit ratings to Eamonn Hughes Baa3 from Ba1 and standalone baseline credit assessment to ba3 from b1. The senior +353-1-641 9442 subordinated and junior subordinated debt ratings were affirmed at B1 and B2 respectively. [email protected] Moody’s noted that the upgrades reflect two main factors. Firstly, the positive impact of the proposed capital reorganisation, which should have a positive impact on the bank’s solvency and liability profile, and secondly, the improvements in the bank's credit fundamentals which it expects to continue into 2016. Separately, AIB have noted that the planned sale of the planned AT1 won’t trigger an automatic coupon payment on its outstanding Junior bonds. In addition, AIB announced this morning that the EGM for the proposed capital reorganisation will occur on 16 December 2015. The announcement by Moody’s is supportive for the Subordinated Tier 2 issued by AIB last Thursday and future potential issuances by the bank. AIB is expected to issue €500m of AT1 in the near future as part of its ongoing capital restructuring. Home… Page 3 23 Nov. 15 Goodbody Morning Wrap Euro Economic View Euro falls to 7 month low versus the dollar amidst diverging policy The euro continues to depreciate against the dollar as speculation increases that the ECB will Juliet Tennent +353-1-641 9469 ease, and the FOMC will tighten, at their respective meetings in December. Mario Draghi [email protected] further fuelled expectations of policy easing on Friday, pointing out that the ECB would act to stoke inflation “as quickly as possible”. European PMIs for November are expected later this morning with expectations that they will remain steady above the expansionary 50 level. However, these are unlikely to change the dial on monetary policy easing in the region. Meanwhile, former FOMC dove John Williams has lent his support to the case for hiking rates in the US in December. The market has now been primed for action from the ECB with an extension of the asset purchase programme and a cut in the deposit rate fully expected and anything less will be a disappointment. This has seen the EURUSD rate fall lose to 1.06, its lowest level since April. This is supportive of exports from the region and thus beneficial for Ireland. Home… Page 4 23 Nov. 15 Goodbody Morning Wrap Market Data Top 10 Covered Companies Company Price Mkt Cap Absolute Relative to European Sector P/E (LC) (LCM) 1 Day 1 Week 1 Mth Ytd 1 Day 1 Week 1 Mth Ytd 2015f 2016f CRH 27.10 22,104 1.3 7.8 15.3 36.2 1.1 4.4 9.5 22.2 31.6 17.3 AIB Group 0.04 20,940 - -45.9 -46.7 -49.4 -0.2 -47.7 -49.3 -54.6 13.0 14.6 Ryanair 14.42 19,963 -0.8 0.2 7.7 47.1 -1.0 -3.0 2.3 31.9 13.1 15.3 IAG 5.77 11,729 -0.9 -2.6 -2.5 18.7 -1.2 -5.7 -7.4 6.5 11.3 7.9 Wolseley 37.50 9,752 0.9 5.4 -0.1 1.7 0.8 2.8 -0.7 1.1 14.2 15.4 Kerry Group 73.40 12,904 -0.7 2.0 5.9 28.6 -0.9 -1.3 0.6 15.4 24.3 22.2 Bank of Ireland 0.34 10,881 3.4 6.7 -6.9 7.3 3.2 3.2 -11.6 -3.7 11.0 11.7 Mondi 15.10 7,332 1.1 6.0 3.4 43.8 0.9 2.6 -1.8 29.0 15.4 14.0 easyJet 16.85 6,693 -1.7 -5.9 -2.7 0.8 -1.8 -8.2 -3.2 0.2 11.8 11.1 DCC 58.30 5,144 -0.5 1.6 11.9 64.1 -0.6 -0.9 11.3 63.0 16.8 23.4 Indices ISEQ performance % Price 1 Day 1 Week 1 Mth Ytd ISEQ 6,714.37 0.40 3.68 6.60 28.52 6,600 6,400 FTSE 100 6,334.63 0.07 3.54 -0.17 -3.53 6,200 DAX 30 11,119.83 0.31 3.84 9.58 13.40 6,000 CAC 40 4,910.97 -0.08 2.14 5.07 14.94 5,800 FTSE Eurofirst 300 1,505.16 0.19 3.24 5.11 9.98 5,600 5,400 Nasdaq 5,104.92 0.62 3.59 4.59 7.79 5,200 S&P 500 2,089.17 0.38 3.27 2.88 1.47 5,000 Dow Jones 17,823.81 0.51 3.35 3.52 0.00 4,800 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Nikkei 225 19,879.81 0.10 1.44 9.19 13.92 Exchange Rates Current Px 1 day Px 1 Week Px Dec14 Avg Ytd Stg/€ 0.701 0.702 0.706 0.776 0.727 STOXX 600 performance US$/€ 1.067 1.074 1.073 1.210 1.113 CHF/€ 1.085 1.089 1.082 1.202 1.066 420 410 JPY/€
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