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Browndegerena Udel 0 COMPLEXITIES OF MASS FATALITY INCIDENTS IN THE UNITED STATES: EXPLORING TELECOMMUNICATION FAILURE by Melissa L. Brown de Gerena A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the University of Delaware in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Disaster Science and Management Winter 2021 © 2021 Melissa L. Brown de Gerena All Rights Reserved COMPLEXITIES OF MASS FATALITY INCIDENTS IN THE UNITED STATES: EXPLORING TELECOMMUNICATION FAILURE by Melissa L. Brown de Gerena Approved: __________________________________________________________ James Kendra, Ph.D. Director of the Disaster Science and Management Program Approved: __________________________________________________________ Maria P. Aristigueta, D.P.A. Dean of the Joseph R. Biden, Jr. School of Public Policy and Administration Approved: __________________________________________________________ Louis F. Rossi, Ph.D. Vice Provost for Graduate and Professional Education and Dean of the Graduate College I certify that I have read this dissertation and that in my opinion it meets the academic and professional standard required by the University as a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Signed: __________________________________________________________ Sue McNeil, Ph.D. Professor in charge of dissertation I certify that I have read this dissertation and that in my opinion it meets the academic and professional standard required by the University as a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Signed: __________________________________________________________ Melissa Melby, Ph.D. Member of dissertation committee I certify that I have read this dissertation and that in my opinion it meets the academic and professional standard required by the University as a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Signed: __________________________________________________________ Rachel Davidson, Ph.D. Member of dissertation committee I certify that I have read this dissertation and that in my opinion it meets the academic and professional standard required by the University as a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Signed: __________________________________________________________ Joseph Trainor, Ph.D. Member of dissertation committee ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First, I would like to thank Dr. Sue McNeil and Dr. Melissa Melby for continuing to foster the drive instilled by my parents to better myself through education and for being my constant, sane, sounding boards throughout this process. I would not be in this position without the guidance of the rest of my committee, Dr. Rachel Davidson and Dr. Joe Trainor. I owe a special debt of gratitude to Dr. Trainor for letting me start this journey, literally at the drop of a hat. Thank you! I would also like to thank Dr. Wiersema of the Harris County Institute of Forensic Science for providing me with the initial database for this work, as well as Sharon Bryson and Paul Sledzik of the NTSB, along with their team in the Transportation Disaster Assistance division, specifically Max Green and Dr. Elias Kontanis, for helping me to find the gap in the data and pointing me in the right direction. A special thank you goes out to my constant adventure companion, Connor Dacey for your support and being a life preserver on numerous occasions! Ultimately, none of this would have been possible without my family: my parents who stepped in on too many occasions when I couldn’t be there, and my amazing husband and my two beautiful motivators – J, V and I - this is all because of, and for, you three. We have truly ‘weathered the storm’ of this disaster process and I hope one day you will understand why completing this meant so much to me, even though it took me away from all of you. I adore you! iv TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................... viii LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................ x ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................. xii GLOSSARY AND ACRONYMS ............................................................................... xiv Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 1 1.1 Mass Fatalities Incidents in the United States ........................................... 1 1.2 Governance of Mass Fatality Incidents ..................................................... 2 1.3 Status of Current Research on Mass Fatality Incidents in the United States ......................................................................................................... 4 1.4 Harris County Institute of Forensic Science’s Mass Fatality Database .... 6 1.5 Goal of Research ..................................................................................... 10 1.6 Overview of the Research ....................................................................... 11 1.7 Outline of Dissertation ............................................................................ 13 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................. 15 2.1 Introduction to Mass Fatality Incidents ................................................... 15 2.2 Planning for Mass Fatality Incidents ....................................................... 16 2.3 Data in Disaster Events ........................................................................... 17 2.4 Current Status of MFI Preparedness in the United States ....................... 19 2.5 Synthesis .................................................................................................. 21 3 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................... 23 3.1 Overview of Methodology ...................................................................... 23 3.2 Research Tasks ........................................................................................ 26 3.2.1 Phase I: Addressing the Nuances of MFIs in the US .................. 26 3.2.2 Phase II: Collecting Public Archive Data from National MFIs .. 26 3.2.2.1 Data Collected on the Attributes of Event .................... 27 3.2.2.2 Characterizing Mass Fatality Incidents ........................ 30 3.2.2.3 Narrowing Data Collection and Focus ......................... 30 v 3.2.3 Phase III: Development of Predictive Tools ............................... 31 3.2.4 Phase IV: Evaluating the Predictive Tools .................................. 32 4 THE ENHANCED MASS FATALITY DATABASE ..................................... 34 4.1 Narrowing the Scope of the Original MFI Database ............................... 34 4.2 Selection of Variables Examined ............................................................ 36 4.3 Descriptive Statistics ............................................................................... 39 4.3.1 Event Demographics ................................................................... 39 4.3.2 County Demographics: Census Data and Public Safety Answering Points (PSAPs) .......................................................... 51 4.3.3 Response: Determining Failure ................................................... 57 4.4 Summary EMFD ..................................................................................... 59 5 ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................... 60 5.1 Modeling Communication Failure .......................................................... 60 5.1.1 EMFD Independent Samples T-tests, Correlations, Chi-square Tests of Independence and Cross Tabulations ............................ 62 5.1.1.1 Independent Samples T-tests ........................................ 62 5.1.1.2 Spearman’s and Pearson’s Correlations ....................... 64 5.1.1.3 Chi-square Tests of Independence with Cross- tabulations ..................................................................... 69 5.1.2 EMFD Regression Models .......................................................... 73 5.1.2.1 Logistic Regression: Telecommunication Failure by Category ....................................................................... 73 5.1.2.2 Logistic Regression: Failure or No Failure .................. 80 5.1.2.3 Linear Regression: Number of Failures ....................... 83 5.2 Verifying Communication Failures ......................................................... 85 5.3 Validation Using 2019 Data .................................................................... 87 5.3.1 EMFD 2019 Events ..................................................................... 87 5.3.2 Regression Analysis of the 2019 Events ..................................... 96 5.3.3 EMFD Data: Is it Accurate? ........................................................ 96 5.4 Summary and Research Questions Revisited ........................................ 109 5.5 Recommendations ................................................................................. 111 vi 6 CONCLUSION, CONTRIBUTIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH ............ 114 6.1 Outcomes and Contributions ................................................................. 114 6.2 Broader Impacts ..................................................................................... 116 6.3 Limitations ............................................................................................. 117 6.4 Opportunities
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