The Country's Economy Is Heavily Dependent on Agriculture, Which Accounts for 27% of The

1.0 OVERVIEW

1.1 AGRICULTURE The country's economy is heavily dependent on agriculture, which accounts for 27% of the GDP and 35% of foreign currency.

The country has a dual agricultural economy (the smallholder sub-sector and the commercial/large-scale sub-sector). The small holder farmers dominating the agricultural sector are estimated to be 31 million. These agricultural holders carry out rain fed agriculture, producing a variety of crops mainly for subsistence purposes. These holders account for most of the food produced in the country.

The main food crops grown in the country are maize, sorghum, millet, cassava, sweet potatoes, bananas, pulses, paddy and wheat. Cash crops grown in Tanzania include coffee, Cashew nut, Tea, cotton, tobacco and sisal. On average the crop sub sector contributes about 34.8% percent of the Agricultural GDP.

The agricultural sector is the main source of employment and livelihood for about 77.5% of the population. It is an important economic sector in terms of food production, employment generation, production of raw material for industries, and generation of foreign exchange earnings.

1.2 ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES IN RELATION TO THE SECTOR AND NATIONAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) 1.2.1 Introduction Subsidized agriculture has consistently been increasing in terms of quantity from 2005/6 up to 2009/10. The sharp increase was observed from 2007/8 to 2009/10. The crops covered by this system were Cashewnut, coffee, cotton, maize, paddy, sorghum, sunflower and tea. The main inputs supplied include agrochemicals, inorganic fertilizers, improved seeds and improved seedlings Under this subsidy arrangement, selected farmers were given inputs for the sake of increasing agricultural productivity. The increase in agricultural productivity is a sign of increased sector performance and, consequently, the determinant for the positive influence of the agricultural sector to the National GDP. The subsidy scheme was implemented using the contract and voucher systems. The contract system was implemented from 2005/6 to 2007/8 in which fourteen agents were selected in different regions to supply inputs to all 21 regions in Tanzania mainland. The voucher system was implemented in 2008/9 and 2009/10. The regions covered in 2008/9 under this new system were eleven including Arusha, Iringa, Kigoma, Kilimanjaro, Manyara, Mara (Tarime district), Mbeya, Morogoro, Rukwa, Ruvuma and Tabora (Sikonge district). In 2009/10 all regions in Tanzania mainland were covered except Dar es salaam. The assessment of the agricultural subsidies in relation to the sector and GDP covers the following: - i) To analyze the National and agricultural sector GDP growth trends ii) To analyze agricultural subsidies as a percentage of crops sub-sector GDP iii) To analyze the crops sub-sector GDP as a percentage of the National GDP iv) To assess the area covered by subsidies as compared to the total area under cultivation v) To give recommendations on how to utilize subsidies for increased agricultural production and GDP 1.2.2 Methodology i. Data sources: The data were collected from the department of policy and planning (budget allocation to agricultural subsidies), department of crop development (amount of subsidies supplied and area covered), the National Bureau of Statistics Crop subsector GDP. ii. Analysis method: The data were analyzed using excel pivot tables and multilevel charts. The results were interpreted and discussed using the word processing computer software iii. Agriculture, wildlife and fisheries (AWF) sector GDP calculation method: The GDP quoted for this report was calculated using both the current and 2001 prices. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), GDP is calculated using the production, expenditure or income methods. The

1 agricultural sector GDP is calculated using the production (value added) as expressed in the model below: - Value added = Output – Intermediate consumption Where Output = Production (tons) x price (Tshs). It is either calculated at constant prices, 2001 as a reference year or prices of the current/production year Intermediate consumption = Direct costs incurred during the production process (fertilizers, seeds, pesticides etc.) this excludes indirect costs like labor in kind, subsidies, taxes etc. Whereas the GDP is calculated in the calendar year (January to December), the subsidy supply is reported using the financial year (July to June). In Tanzania, we have two agriculture seasons namely short rains (October – January) and long rains (February – June) in a year. Crop production for agriculture season 2005/06 is normally harvested in calendar year 2006.

1.2.3 Agriculture, wildlife and fisheries (AWF) and National GDP growth trends For ease of discussion, the agriculture, wildlife and fisheries sector has been referred to as the agricultural sector throughout the report.

Chart 1.1: Relative growth of sector and National GDP 0.080 0.070 National GDP growth trend e

t 0.060

a (compared to previous year) r

h 0.050 t w

o 0.040 Agricultural sector GDP r g

growth trend (cf. previous

P 0.030

D year GDP) G 0.020 Crops sub-sector GDP 0.010 growth trend (compared to previous year) - 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10

As one can see in chart 1.1, generally the National and agricultural sector GDP grew and reached peaks in 2008 and minima in 2009 before rising slightly in 2010. The National GDP reached a peak of 7.4% in 2008 and reached a minimum of 6% in 2009 and then rose to 7% in 2010. The Agricultural sector GDP reached a peak of 4.6% in 2008 and reached a minimum of 3.2% in 2009 and then rose to 4.2% in 2010. The crops sub-sector GDP reached a peak of 5.1% in 2008 and reached a minimum of 3.4% in 2009 and then rose to 4.4% in 2010. Of all the sectors, the sharpest fall in 2009 was with the crops sub-sector This trend of GDP raise in 2008 and fall in 2009 has been attributed to the unfavourable of weather for agriculture production. The good rainfall pattern in 2008 improved the production and the adverse weather condition in 2009 diminished it. Since weather is the main determinant of the agricultural sector GDP, then it follows that whenever there is adverse weather, the production and hence GDP falls and vice versa.

2 1.2.4 The influence of subsidies to the crops sub-sector and National GDP growth The crops sub-sector GDP growth is a function of yield (production per unit area). This means any parameter that influences productivity influences performance of the sub-sector. Subsidies are aimed at increasing the sub-sector GDP through increased yield. The GDP measures production of goods and services in the economy including crop-subsector for the specified reference year. It follows therefore that, when all other factors are kept constant, the amount of subsidies is directly proportional to the GDP growth.

As one can see from chart 1.2 Chart 1.2: Production trends for crops in subsidized areas above, the production in 6,000.000 areas under subsidies had 5,000.000 generally been 4,000.000 growing though 2005/2006 with some 3,000.000 undulations. The 2006/2007 observed fall in 2,000.000 2007/2008 production 2008/9 is ascribed among 1,000.000 2008/2009 other things, to the fact that the - 2009/2010 regions benefiting from input subsidies fell from 21 for previous reporting years to only 11 in 2008/9. The crop that leads in production is maize followed by paddy and sorghum. Apart from subsidies, the increase is also attributed to the fact that, these are staple crops for most of the Tanzania population

Chart 1.3: Yield trends for crops in subsidized areas 1.800 1.600 y = 0.086x2 - 0.477x + 1.785 1.612 R² = 0.796 1.400 1.345 1.266 1.200 Average yield trends for 1.156 1.130 1.000 crops in subsidized areas 0.800 Poly. (Average yield trends 0.600 for crops in subsidized 0.400 areas) 0.200 - 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10

As seen in chart 1.3 above, the average yield of crops in subsidized areas has been declining from 1.345tons/ha in 2005/6 to a turning point of 1.130tons/ha in 2008/9 then increased to 1.612 in 2009/10. This increase might be contributed to the subsizidies.

3 Chart 1.4: Influence of subsidies to the sector and National GDP 80.00% 2.50% share of the Agricultural 70.00% sector GDP to National GDP 2.00% 60.00% Share of the crops sub- sector GDP to National GDP 50.00% 1.50%

40.00% Share of the crops sub- sector GDP to Agricultural 1.00% 30.00% sector GDP Percentage of subsidies to 20.00% the crops sub-sector GDP 0.50% 10.00% Percentage of subsidies to Agricultural sector GDP 0.00% 0.00% 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10

The crops sub-sector actual spending on subsidies has progressively been increasing from Tshs 7,400 million in 2005/6 to Tshs 110,038 million in 2009/10. As is seen in chart 1.4 and taking prices of respective years, the percentage spending relative to the sub-sector GDP grew from 0.21% in 2005/6 to 1.91% in 2009/10. This is the clear indication of the government dedication to improve agricultural productivity through subsidies to smallholders. Basing on the 2001 prices, the National GDP has increased from Tshs 12,881,163 million in 2006 to 16,828,563 million in 2010. This increase is equivalent to 30.6%. The share contribution of crop subsector to the agriculture GDP was about 75 to 76% for the years 2006 through 2010. The Agricultural sector GDP has increased from Tshs 3,268,238 million in 2006 to 3,824,428 million over the same period (equivalent to 17.0% growth). The crops subsector GDP has increased from Tshs 2,457,373 million in 2006 to Tshs 2,913,474 million in 2010 equivalent to 16.5% growth. This is a clear indication that, the national GDP growth rate is almost twice the Agricultural sector growth rate for the years 2006 through 2010. The slow rate of agricultural sector GDP growth rate might be attributed to better performance of other economic sectors, unreliable weather and low level of agricultural subsidies. As compared to the national GDP, contribution of the Agricultural sector and crops sub-sector has been diminishing from 25.37% and 19.08% in 2006 to 22.73% and 17.3 1% in 2010 respectively. The lowest point was in 2008 and the highest points were in 2006. This situation might be attributed to the higher performance of other sectors of the economy. More studies need to be done for verification of this. This trend tells us that, despite the increased level of subsidies, the crops sub-sector performance is still below the performance of other sectors. As will be seen in the next section, this might partly be attributed to the small percent of the area under subsidies as compared to the total area under cultivation (2-5% in the last five cropping years). Due to this, agricultural subsidies do not have a significant bearing on the national agricultural productivity and hence GDP.

1.2.5 Area under Agricultural subsidies Tanzania is endowed with an area of 94.5 million ha of land, out of which 44 million ha are classified as suitable for agriculture. According to National Sample Census for Agriculture of 2002/2003 the area under cultivation is 9.1 million ha. This includes 7.8 ha of annual crops (including fallow), 1.2 million ha permanent crops (including planted trees)i.

4 No data was found to establish the area under crop subsidies. So the area was computed basing on the amount of fertilizers supplied to farmers. The system of agricultural subsidy requires that the farmer identified is given 50kg of basal dressing, 50kg of top dressing fertilizers and improved seeds. The plan is for the farmer to use the subsidies in one acreii. That means one ton covers 10acres or approximately 4ha

Chart 1.5: Relationship between total area under cultivation to area under crop subsidies 12% 14,000 Total area under cultivation 2 10% y = 145.6x - 392.4x + 9878. 12,000 ('000ha) R² = 0.496 10,000 8% Percentage of subsidized 8,000 area to total area under 6% subsidized crops 6,000 4% Percentage of area under 4,000 subsidies to total cultivated area 2% 2,000 Poly. (Total area under 0% - cultivation ('000ha)) 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10

As one can see from chart 1.5 above, the total area under cultivation has been undulating over years from 9,482,000ha in 2005/6 to 10,364,000ha then declining to the turning point of 8,850,000ha in 2007/8 and then elevated to a peak of 11,501,000ha in 2008/9 and then slightly declined to 11,319,000ha in 2009/10 (a discrete fall of 1.5% as compared to 2008/9 but a cumulative increase of 19% as compared to that of 2005/6)iii. While this undulation is happening with the total area under cultivation, the area under agricultural subsidies has progressively been increasing from 216,062ha in 2005/6 to 607,264ha in 2009/10. The percentage of area under subsidies to the total cultivated area has progressively been increasing from the minimum of 2% in 2005/6 and then maintained a level of 4% in subsequent years and then reached a maximum level of 5% in 2009/10. The proportion of the area under subsidies to the area under crops in subsidized areas is almost double as compared to the proportion to the total area under cultivation. This leap in input subsidy has mainly been attributed to the National strategy for Tanzania green revolution through the National Agricultural Input Voucher Scheme (NAIVS). As has been observed above, this share of area under subsidies is so small that it has no significant bearing on the sector performance as compared to the National GDP.

1.2.6 Recommendations for having subsidies contribute to the increased Agricultural sector GDP Though a generalized comparative overview has been made for productivity of crops that are subsidized, this study could not address the comparison of price trends for agricultural products grown in areas under subsidies and the ones without. This is due to lack of data. Therefore, an independent study has to be carried out to establish the crop price trends under subsidized agriculture and area without subsidies so that we establish whether subsidies increases or decreases prices and hence the GDP.

5 2. CROP PRODUCTION Crops are categorized into different groups as follows: (i) Cereal Crops: (Maize, Paddy, Sorghum, Wheat and Millets) (ii) Root and Tuber Crops: ( Cassava, Sweet potatoes, Round potatoes, Yams and Coco yams) (iii) Pulse Crops: (Beans, Chick peas, Cow peas, bambaranuts, Field peas and Pigeon peas) (iv) Oil seed crops: (Groundnuts, sunflower, simsim, Oil Palm, soya beans and castor seeds) (v) Fruit and vegetables: (Tomatoes, cabbage, onions, amaranth’s, chillies and water melon) (vi) Traditional crops: ( cotton, coffee, cashew nuts, tobacco, sisal, tea, pyrethrum, sugarcane, palm oil and flowers)

(a) CEREAL CROPS: Main cereal crops grown in Tanzania are; maize, paddy, sorghum, wheat and millets. Production of cereal crops has been fluctuating from one year to another as it can be seen from graphical presentations that follow below.

2. 1 CEREAL CROPS 2.1.1 Maize: Maize is the dominant cereal crop grown in almost all twenty one Chart 2.1: Maize Planted Area and Yield regions of Tanzania Mainland. Planted area increased from 5,000 2.0 2,570,147 hectares in 2005/06 to

3,050,714 hectares in 2009/10 ) 4,000 s 1.5 e r agricultural year. The increase is a t ) c a e h about 481 hectares which is about 3,000 / h t ( (

a d l 18.7 percent increase. The yield of e 1.0 r e i A maize also increased from 1.3 tons 2,000 Y per hectare in 2005/06 to 1.6 tons per hectare in 2009/10 agricultural 0.5 year. (Chart 2.1) 1,000

- 0.0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

Agricultural Year

Area ('000'ha) Yield (tons/ha)

Production of maize has been fluctuating from one year to another due Chart 2.2 : Maize Production in Tons ('000') from (2005/06 -2009/10) to some factors such as shortage of 6,000 ) rainfall. The highest production was ' 5,000 0 0 0 ' recorded in agriculture sample census of (

d 4,000 2007/08 with 5,438,776 tons. When e c u d

compared to the production of o r 3,000 P

4,733,073 tons in 2009/10, there was a t i t

n 2,000 decrease of about 705,703 tons, which a is u equivalent to 13 percent. (Chart 2.2). Q 1,000 The increase in maize production in 2007/08 was attributed by increase in - area cultivated and increase in fertilizers 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 used for maize production (Chart 2.3). Agricultural Year

6 Chart 2.3: The influence of fertilizer use and rainfall on maize production (2005/06 - 2009/10 cropping year)

6,500.00

5,500.00

Rainfall ('000' mm) 4,500.00

Fertilizer used ( '000' 3,500.00 tons) Maize production ('000' tons) 2,500.00

In 1,500.00 Chart 2.4: Maize Production in Metric Tons by Region for the year (2009/10) Agricultural Year. 500.00

-500.00 700 Years 600 ) ' 0 ' 0

2009/10 agricultural year, 0 T M

Mbeya region produced t c u d

o 400 r more maize followed by P Shinyanga, Iringa, Rukwa, 300 Ruvuma and Morogoro 200 regions. These six 100 regions together produced 0 about 2,559,134 tons out of

4,733,073 tons produced Region in the country. This was equivalent to 54 percent of the total maize production. The remaining 15 regions shared the remaining 46 percentage of maize production. (Chart 2.4)

2.1.2 Paddy: Area planted with paddy increased Chart 2.5: Paddy Planted Area and Yie ld dramatically since the last 3,000 3.0 sample census of agriculture 2007/08. Planted area 2,500 2.5

remained more or less the ) s e

same up to 2008/09, then it r p )

a 2,000 2.0 t icked up to 1,136,287 a c h / e t ( h

hectares in 2009/10 The (

1,500 1.5 d l highest yield of 2.4 tons per a e e i r Y hectare was recorded in A 1,000 1.0 2006/07 agricultural year. This has been attributed by the 500 0.5 highest recorded rains in the five years (2005/6 to - - 2009/10). 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 From there, paddy yield fluctuated in the following two years of 2007/08 and A r e a ( H aAgricultural ' 0 0 0 ' ) YearY i e l d ( T o n / H a ) 2008/09. The yield picked up to 2.3 tons per hectare in 2009/10 agricultural year (Chart 2.5)

Paddy production remained more or less the same from 2005/06 to 2008/09. Production increased dramatically from 1,334,800 tons in 2008/09 to 2,650,115 tons in 2009/10 agricultural year. The increase is equivalent to 98.5 percent.

7 There are many reasons that contributed to the increase of paddy production. Among them are: the increase in the area cultivated under paddy, use of fertilizers under inputs voucher system, enough rainfall distribution as well as increase in the use of irrigation (Chart 2.6 & 2.7)

Chart 2.6: Paddy Production in Tons (2005/06 - 2009/10) ) '

0 3000 0 0 '

2500 d e c 2000 u d o r 1500 P

t 1000 n a

u 500 Q

0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

Agricultural Year Chart 2.7: The influence of fertilizer use and rainfall on paddy production (2005/06 - 2009/10 cropping year)

6,500.00

5,500.00

Rainfall ('000' mm) 4,500.00

Fertilizer used ( '000' 3,500.00 tons) Paddy production ('000' tons) 2,500.00

1,500.00

During 2009/10 500.00

-500.00 Years Chart 2.8: Paddy Production by Region in Tons from (2009/10) Agricultural Year. 500 ) '

0 400 0 0 ' (

c 300 u d o r p

y 200 t i t n a u

REGION agricultural year, the highest paddy production was recorded in Arusha region followed by Morogoro, Shinyanga , Rukwa , Mbeya , Mwanza , Kilimanjaro and Ruvuma. These eight regions together produced about 2,212,918 tons, which is equivalent to 84 percent of the national total paddy production in 2009/10 agricultural year(Chart 2.8)

8 2.1.3 Sorghum: This is one of a drought tolerant crop grown in areas with marginal annual rainfall like central zone covering Dodoma and Singida regions, Lake Zone covering Mwanza, Mara and Shinyanga regions, and southern zone of Lindi and Mtwara regions. Area planted with sorghum fluctuated from one year to another. Area planted with sorghum decreased from 874,220 hectares in 2008/09 to 618,369 hectares in 2009/10. This is equivalent to 29.27% decrease. The highest yield of 1.3 tons per hectare was recorded in 2009/10 agricultural year. (Chart 2.9)

Sorghum production increased by 11% in 2005/6 season and Chart 2.9 Sorghum Planted Area and Yield by 36% in 2006/7. This record of 971,198 tons is the highest record in the five years. This 1000 1.5 ) s peak was attributed by the e r )

a 800 a highest amount of rainfall t c h / e 1.0 t recorded. From 2007/8 up to ( h

d l 2009/10, production increased a e e i r Y

from 8% – 13% per annum. A 400 (Chart 2.10). 0.5 200 The highest sorghum 0 0.0 production in 2009/10 Chart20052.10:/06 Sorghum2006 Production/07 2007 in Tons/08 (2005/062008 -/092009/10)2009 /10 Agriculture Year was recorded in Mara 1200 Area (Ha '000') region followed by Yield(Ton/Ha) Singida, Dodoma and ) 1000 s

Shinyanga. These four n o t

regions together ' 0 800 0

produced about 532,464 0 '

tons. This accounts about d e 600 67% of national c u d

production. (Chart 2.11) o r P

400 y t i t n

Chart 2.11:a Production of Sorghum by Region for (2009/10) Agricultural Year.

u 200 ) ' Q 0 300 0 0 '

e 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

c Agricultural Year u d

o 180 r P

i 120 t Series1 n a

u 60 Q

Region 2.2 TRADITIONAL CASH CROPS 2.2.1 Cotton: Area planted Chart 2.13 Production of Cotton in Tons ('000') 2005/06 - 2009/10 ) for cotton increased from ' Chart 2.12 Cotton Planted Area and Yield

0 600 0 ) 0 s 319,493 hectares in 2005/06 '

1,500.00 1 .5 500r d to 421,200 hectares in a e t 1,300.00 c c u 2009/10. This is equivalent to ) 400e

d 1,100.00 a h o ( h

r 14% increase. In 2006/07 area 1.0 / t a

P 900.00

300 r y d

cultivated for cotton t

700.00 l i A t e i n 200 500.00 a 0 .5 Y u 300.00 Q 100 100.00 9 -100.00 0.0 0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2005/06 2006/07Agriculture2007/08 Year 2008/09 2009/10

Area ('0 00 'ha ) Yield (tons/ha) Agricultural Year P ro d. (T o ns ) decreased to 286,161 hectares and then in 2007/08 increased to 575,367 hectares. Productivity of cotton decreased from 1.2 tons /ha in 2005/06 to 0.6 tons /ha in 2009/10. (Chart 2.12).

Production of cotton (Chart 2.13) in five years decreased from 376,587 tons in 2005/06 to 267,004 tons in 2009/10. The decrease is equivalent to 29%. The decrease in cotton production might be due to unpredictable prices and lack of inputs. The high leap in production in 2007/8 was caused by heavy rains that fell in that year.

In 2009/10, production of cotton by regions in Tanzania indicated that Shinyanga region produced the highest amount of cotton (146,150 Chart 2.14 Production of Cotton in Tons ('000') by Region for (2009/10) Agricultural tons) as compared to other Year. ) ' regions that produce cotton in 0 0 0 '

Chart 2.15 : Cashewnut Planted Area and Yield ) the country. (Chart 2.14) d e s c

e 120 u

2.2.2 Cashew nut r

d 400.0 0.40 a o t Up to the time of preparing this r 80 P c

y ) e t i

booklet, the census data on a t h 30040.0 0.30 ( n h

/ cashew nuts were still in a a t u (

preparation. So the data for d l

A 200.0 0.20 e cashewnut for 2007/2008 has i been extracted from the Y budget speech. Area planted 100.0 Region 0.10 with cashew nuts fluctuated in five years. In 2005/06 a total of 0.0 0.00 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 319,970 hectares were planted Agriculture Year with this crop while in 2009/10 Area ('00 0'ha) Yield (to ns/ha) the area for cashew nuts decreased to 249,093 hectares. This is equal to 22% decrease. Productivity of cashewnut in the country increased from 0.28 tons/ha in 2005/06 to 0.30v tons /ha in 2009/10. (Chart 2.15)

Production of Cashewnut decreased from 90,380 tons in Chart 2.16 : Cashew nut Production in Tons ('000') for (2005/06 - 2009/10) 2005/06 to 74,170 tons in 100 2009/10. This is equivalent to 90 18% decrease. This drop has ) 80 ' 0 mainly been attributed to the 0 0

' 70 ( mismanagement of pesticides d

e 60 by farmers due to a change c u d from the use of pesticides in o 50 r P

powder form to the use of y 40 t i t liquid form pesticides without n

a 30 u

farmers training (AD CPS, Q 2011). In observation of this 20 fact, farmers were trained and 10 the production increased from 0 74,170 tons in 2009/10 to 2005/06 2006/07 2008/09 2009/10 121,070 tons in 2010/11. This Agricultural Year is equivalent to 63% increase. Chart 2.17 :Production of Cashewnut in Tons ('000') by Region for (2009/10) (Chart 2.16) Agricultural Year.

) 50 ' 0 ' 0 (

In 2009/10, production of 0

d 40 e

cashewnut by regions in c u

Tanzania indicated that d 30 o r P Mtwara region produced the y 20 t i t n a 10 u Q 0 10

Region highest amount of cashew nuts (38,990 tons) as compared to other regions that produce cashewnut in the country. (Chart 2.17)

Chart 2.18 : Pyrethrum Planted Area and Yield ) 12.00 12.0 2.2.3 Pyrethrum s e r

Area planted with pyrethrum a t ) c fluctuated with time. In 9.00 a e h / h

2005/06 a total of 1,749 ( (

a hectares were planted with d e l

r 6.00 e i

pyrethrum while in 2009/10 a A Y total area of 5,285 hectares 2.0 were planted with pyrethrum. 3.00 This is equal to 202% increase. The largest area for 0.00 -3.0 pyrethrum was grown in 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Agricultural Year

2008/09 (10,680 hectares) A r e a ( '0 0 0 ' h a ) Y i e l d ( t o n s / h a ) and the smallest recorded area was in 2005/6 (1,749 ha). (Chart 2.18)

Productivity of pyrethrum in the country decreased from 1.43 tons/ha in 2005/06 to 0.63 tons /ha in 2009/10.

Production of pyrethrum increased from 2,500 tons in 2005/06 to 3,300 tons in 2009/10. This is equivalent to 33% increase in production. (Chart 2.19)

Chart 2.19 Pyrethrum Production in Tons 2005/06 - 2009/10) Chart 2.20: Production of Pyrethrum by Region for (2009/10) Agricultural Year. 5 )

' 2.0 0 0 4 0 ' ( 1.5 d e c u

r 1.0 P

y t i 2 t n a

u 0.5 1 Q 0.0 0 Mbeya Manyara Arusha Tabora Iringa 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/2010 R egion Agriculture Year

In 2009/10, production of pyrethrum by regions indicated Mbeya region to produce more pyrethrum (1,890 tons) than other regions that produce pyrethrum (Chart 20).

2.2.4 Tobacco Area planted with tobacco increased from 61,467 hectares In 2005/06 to 78,926 hectares in 2009/10. This is equal to 28% increase. Productivity of tobacco in the country decreased from 0.9 tons/ha in 2005/06 to 0.8 tons /ha in 2009/10. (Chart 2.21)

Chart 2.21: Tobacco Planted Area and Yield Chart 2.22 Tobacco Production in Tons ('000') for (2005/06 - 2009/10) 150.00 1.5 80.0 130.00 70.0 ) ) s ' e 0 r 110.00 )

0 60.0 a a t 0 ' h c / 1.0 ( e t

90.00 ( 50.0 h d

d l c a e e i u 40.0 r 70.00 Y d A o r 30.0 p

50.00 y

0.5 t i 20.0 t

30.00 n a 10.0 u 10.00 11 Q 0.0

-10.00 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 0.0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Agriculture Year P r o d u c t i o n ( ' 0 0 0 ' t o n s ) A r e a ( '0 0 0 'h a ) Y i e l d ( t o n s / h a ) Agricultural Year Production of tobacco increased from 56,500 tons in 2005/06 to 60,900 tons in 2009/10. This is equivalent to 8% increase. Increase in production might be due to increased use of fertilizers in the country. (Chart 2.22)

In 2009/10, production of Tobacco by regions in Tanzania indicated that Tabora region produced more tobacco (25,080 tons) than other regions that produce tobacco. (Chart 2.23)

Chart 2.23: Production of Tobacco by Region for (2009/10) Agricultural Year. 30.0 ) ' 0 0

0 25.0 ' (

c 20.0 u d o r 15.0 P

y t i t

n 10.0 a u

R egion

12 3: AGRICULTURAL INPUTS 3.1 Fertilizers The demand for fertilizers has been kept constant at 385,000 tons for the last five years that is 2005/06-2009/10. The availability has been Chart 3.1: Demand, availability and use of inorganic fertilizers fluctuating between 78% 2005/06-2009/10 and 55% as compared to 450,000 the demanded fertilizers. 400,000 ) s

The proportion of the n 350,000 o t ( available fertilizer used has r 300,000 e z i l constantly been increasing i t 250,000 r e f

Demanded from 49% in 2005/6 to 78% f 200,000 o

t Available in 2009/10. In the same n u 150,000 o Used manner, the proportion of m

A 100,000 demanded fertilizer used 50,000 has constantly been - increasing from 31% in 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2005/6 to 68% in 2009/10. Years (Chart 3.1).

Supply of Fertilizers and Maize seeds under Input subsidies Programme 2005/06 – 2009/10

Under the Input voucher system, the Programme was able to supply a total number of 63000 tons of fertilizers to farmers in 2005/06 and 150055 tons in 2009/10. This is equivalent to 138% increase of fertilizers supplied to farmers under input voucher system.

In 2006/07 the Programme supplied a total of 814 tons of maize seeds to farmers and in 2009/10 it supplied a total number of 14,700 tons of maize seeds. This increase is equivalent to 1705%. (Chart 3.2).

Chart 3.2: Supply of Fertilizers and Quality Maize seeds under Input subsidies Programme 2005/06-2009/10 160,000 150,055 141,050 140,000

120,000

100,000 89,941 s

e 82,005 n

n 80,000 Fertilizers supplied(Tons) o

T 63,000 Quality Maize seeds(Tones) 60,000 Linear (Fertilizers supplied(Tons)) 40,000

20,000 14,700 7,180 814 1,071 0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Years 3.2 SEEDS Availability of seeds and use

13 Availability of seeds from Private sector increased from 8,748.25 tons in 2005/06 to 14,536.42 tons in 2009/10. While Public Sector decreased from 1,728.92 tons in 2005/06 to 1,608.37 tons in 2009/10. This increase of seeds availability from private sector and decrease for public sector is equivalent to 66 % increase and 7% decrease for private and public sector respectively. (Chart 3.3).

Chart 3.3: Availability of seeds from Private and Public sectors and use of seeds 2005/06-2009/10

Private Secor 18,000.00 16,174.36 14,869.51 16,000.00 14,536.42 Public Sector 14,000.00

s 12,000.00 10,511.32 Use e 8,748.25 n 10,000.00 n

o 8,000.00 Total Seed T 6,000.00 4,000.00 1,728.92 1,656.30 1,608.37 Linear (Private Secor) 2,000.00 217.24 544.75 0.00 Linear (Public Sector) 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 Years Linear (Use)

Generally the availability of seeds and use increased from 10,477.17 tons in 2005/06 to 16,144.79 tons in 2009/10. This change is equivalent to 54 % increase.

For individual crop seeds, the availability was as indicated below:

Maize seeds The availability of Maize seeds increased from Chart 3.4: Availability of Maize seeds in Tanzania 2005/06 - 2009/10 8,766.16 tons in 2005/06 16,000.00 to 13,323.51 tons in 14,000.00 13,908.50 13,323.51 2009/10. This change is 12,000.00 11,932.82 s

e 10,000.00 9,629.16 equivalent to 52% n 8,766.16

n 8,000.00 increase of maize seeds o

T 6,000.00 that were available to 4,000.00 2,000.00 farmers. (Chart 3.4). 0.00 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 Sorghum seeds Years

The availability of Chart 3.5: Availability of Sorghum seeds in Tanzania 2005/06-2009/10 sorghum seeds increased from 341.8 tons in 3000 2005/06 to 1346.06 tons 2,799.30 2500 in 2009/10. This increase 2,170

s 2000 is equivalent to 293 % e n 1500 n 1,346.06 increase. However in o T 1000 Chaert 3.6: Availability of Beans seeds in Tanzania 2005/06-2009/10 2008/2009 only a small 500 341.8 79 600 0 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 500 513.7 Years 400 s e

n 300 n o 233.83 T 200 100 14 56.12 0 0 0 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 Years amount of sorghum was available to farmers. In 2006/07 more sorghum seeds were available in the country. (Chart 3.5).

Beans seeds The availability of Beans seeds decreased from 233.83 tons in 2005/06 to nothing tons in 2009/10. This situation indicates that farmers in 2009/10 used their own beans seeds to grow beans. In 2006/07 more beans seeds were available in the country. (Chart 3.6).

Paddy seeds The availability of Paddy seeds increased from 225.6 tons in 2005/06 to 784.93 tons in 2009/10. This change is equivalent to 248% increase of paddy seeds that were available to farmers. However in 2007/08 only a small amount of paddy seeds were available in the country. (Chart 3.7).

Chart 3.7: Availability of Paddy seeds in Tanzania 2005/06-2009/10

900 800 784.93 700 600 s e 500 n

n 400 o

T 300 200 225.6 220 149.52 100 0 30 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 Years

15 4.0 RAINFALL:

The country received the highest rainfall in 2006 but went on into a decline for three consecutive years (2007 -2009) and declining even further below the amount of rainfall experienced in 2005. (Chart 4.1).

Chart 4.1: Total Rainfall (mm) in Tanzania: 2005 - 2009

60000.0 55653.2 50000.0

40000.0 40694 38248.3 )

m 32433.5 30000.0 m ( 24133.7 20000.0

Year 10000.0 2006 0.0

Year experienced exceptionally heavy rainfall. The 8 stations which received highest rainfall in mm were Amani 2,643.2 mm or 4.7%, followed by Tukuyu 4.5%, Bukoba 4.2%, Lyamungo 3.9%, Mahenge 3.9% , Matangafu 3.7%, Zanzibar 3.6% and Pemba 3.5%. Combined, they accounted for a third of the total rainfall recorded in all 41 stations that year.

Even with the heavy downpour of 2006, the 7 stations which received lowest rainfall in mm were Dodoma 554.7 mm or 1%, followed by KIA 1.3%, Iringa 1.3%, Hombolo 1.3%, Singida Agric. 1.5%, Uyole 1.5% and Ilonga 1.6%. Combined, they accounted for less than 10% of total rainfall recorded in all 41 stations that year.

For the same year, most Chart 4.2: Monthly Rainfall Distribution for 2006 Year with rainfall was recorded in Highest Rainfall in mm (2005 - 2009 period) December (10471.2mm) 12000.0 followed by April 10471.2 10259.1 (10259.1mm), November 10000.0 (7783.3 mm), and March 7783.3 8000.0 7014.3

(7014.3 mm). Least rainfall )

m 6000.0 was recorded in July (794.1 m 4871.4 ( 3877.7 mm) followed by September 4000.0 3281.3 3245.8 (999.1 mm), August (1084.6 1971.3 2000.0 mm) and June (1971.3 mm). 1084.6 999.1 794.1 (Chart 4.2) 0.0

A graphical comparison of Months (2006) monthly rainfall in mm (Chart 4.3) for two years 2006 and 2008 revealed that there was a uniformity of monthly patterns whether it was a year with much rainfall (2006) or less rainfall (2008). Starting in February (2006), rainfall increased and reached its highest Chart 4.3: Monthly Comparisons of Rainfall (mm) from Year 2005 to peak in April and 2009 in Tanzania fallen down to its 12,000 ) 10,000 lowest level in m m

( 8,000

a 6,000 2005 f n i 4,000 2006 a

R 2,000 2007 - 2008 16 2009

Months July/August/September. From October there was a moderate increase of rainfall and reached its peak in December/January. A monthly comparison of rainfall for each year for the period of 2005- 2009, shows the same pattern except for 2009 which had missing data from September to December.

17 5.0 COOPERATIVES

5.1 Status of SACCOS in Tanzania 2005/06 -2009/10

In 2005 SACCOS status by considering some variables namely number of SACCOS , SACCOS Membership, Shares and Loans issued, Tanzania had a total number of 3,400 SACCOS with a total number of 5,206 SACCOS memberships. This increased up to 5,332 SACCOS and a total number of 820,670 memberships in 2009/10.The increase in number of SACCOS is equivalent to 56% while the increase in SACCOS memberships is equivalent to 15663%. This indicates that more people have joined SACCOS in the country. (Chart 5.1 and 5.2).

Chart 5.1: Number of SACCOS in Tanzania 2005 - 2009 S O C

C 6,000.0 A 5,332.0 S

5,000.0

f 4,524.0 o

4,000.0 r 3,400.0 3,469.0 e 3,000.0 b

m 2,000.0 2,028.0 u

N 1,000.0 p i

0.0 h Charts 5.2: SACCOS Membership in Tanzania 2005 2006 2007r 2008 2009

e 2005 - 2009

Yearsb m e 900,000.0

M 800,000.0 820,670.0

758,828.0

f 700,000.0 o

600,000.0 590,163.0

r 500,000.0 e 400,000.0 b 300,000.0 291,344.0 m 200,000.0 u 100,000.0 N 5,206.0

0.0 5 6 7 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 Years

Shares for SACCOS increased from 13,169.5 million Tsh in 2005 to 33,529.6 million Tshs in 2009. This is equivalent to 154.6% increse. Loans issued to SACCOS members increased from 54,140.1 million Tshs in 2005 to 383,564 million Tshs in 2009. This increase is equivalent to 608% change. (Chart 5.3).

Chart 5.3: SACCOS Share and Loans issued in Tanzania 2005 - 2009

450,000.0 400,000.0 383,564.0 n 350,000.0 o i l

l 300,000.0 i m

250,000.0 Shares(Tshs Million) s

h 200,000.0 202,722.6 s

T 150,000.0 Loans issued (Tshs 115,106.8 Million) 100,000.0 50,000.0 54,140.1 34,340.8 33,529.6 18,240.224,218.1 0.0 13,169.513,116.2 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Years 18 5.2 Status of SACCOS in Regions 2005-2009 For individual regions in the country, number of SACCOS, SACCOS memberships, Shares and Loans issued varied from one region to another and across years as follows:

5.2.1 Number of SACCOS In 2005, Dar es Salaam region indicated to have more number of SACCOs (237) than other regions in the country. Rukwa region indicated to have less number (23) than other regions. (Chart 5.4).

Chart 5.4: Number of SACCOS by Region 2005 In

250 S O

C 200 C A

f o 100 r e

b 50 m

u 0 N I I A A A A A A A A A A A A A A O A A O N D M Y Z R R R R R R G R H D G S G M A M N I W M E E I N S A A A A N O N N D O K B G I O J U O L G Y A U W B A G A M U W R V N G N D A N R P I T M I I A Y T R O W U K A S A O T A K N R R I M D M M M I H O L S I M K Regions

2009 Mwanza region indicated to have a large number of SACCOS (619) in the country while Ruvuma indicated the lowest number of SACCOS (98)in the country. (Chart 5.5). Chart 5.5: Number of SACCOS by Region as of May 2009

S 600 O C

C 500 A S

f 400 o

r 300 e b

m 200 u

N 100 0

Regions

5.2.2 SACCOS Membership In 2005, Kilimanjaro region indicated to have a large number of membership (63,047) and Rukwa region with a least number of memberships (1,474). (Chart 5.6). p i

h Chart 5.6: Number of SACCOS Membership by Region 2005 s r e b 70000 m

e 60000

M 50000

f 40000 o 30000 r

e 20000 b 10000 m O O A I A A A A u 0 A I A A A A A R A R A A A A Z G R N R R R D H M N Y M D A R G G M O M N N I A W J A E A S S E N O O A N N U Y G I A K O A G N I B G U D B L W W V D Y A N O U G N R M R A A A I I I T W P T M U N A O R R K T A I S K M R M D M I O H M L S I M K Regions 19 In 2009, Dar es Salaam region indicated to have a large number of memberships (55,487) in the country while Manyara region indicated the lowest number of membership (10,802). (Chart 5.7).

Chart 5.7: Number of SACCOS Membership by Region as of May 2009 p i

h 160000 s

r 140000 e

b 120000

m 100000 e 80000 M

f 60000 o 40000 r

e 20000 b

N 5.2.3 Number of Regions Shares and loans issued

In 2005 Dar es Salaam region Chart 5.8: Number of Shares and Loans issued by Region as of May 2005 indicated to have more shares of 30000 25000

3,662.6 million Tshs n o i l

l 20000 than other regions i m

15000 while Kigoma region s h

s 10000 T indicated the lowest 5000 Shares (Tshs Million) shares of 26.6 million 0 Loans (Tshs Million) I I O O A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A N M Z D R R R R R G Y R H R G D G M S M M A I W E N E N A Tshs in the country. S A O A N O I A N N J D O U K I O G B Y A G U L G B A W A N V W D R M U N G N R Y A I A P I I T M O T W A U (Chart 5.8). R O K A T A N S K R I R M D M M M I O H L S

In 2009 Dar es I M K Salaam region Regions indicated to have more shares of 12,658.4 million Tshs than other regions while Singida region indicated least shares of 119.0 million Tshs

For the case of Loans issued, in 2005 Dar es Salaam region received more loans of 25,236.4 million Tshs while Kigoma region received the lowest loans of 79.3 million Tshs. In 2009 Dar es Salaam received more loans of 70,360.7Million Tshs while Singida region received the lowest amount 1,253.6 million Tshs

Chart 5.9: Number of Shares and loans issued by Region as of May 2009

140000

n 120000 o i l

l 100000 i

m 80000

s Shares (Tshs Million)

h 60000 s Loans (Tshs Million)

T 40000

20000 A A A I A A A A A A O A O I A A A 0 A A Z A R R N R R R G H R M D Y D M M R G G M N A I A W A E S E S N O A O N O Y U A N N A J G O I K G U I B B D A G W D V W N L A ' N N G U R R A Y M A I ' I T W I P ' T M U A O R K T A S K K M S R M D M M Regions 20 6.0 FOOD REQUIREMENT AND AVAILABILITY During the months of May-June, 2011 the National Food Security Division (CMEW - Crop Monitoring and Early Warning) carried out a regular preliminary food crop production forecast survey to ascertain food crop harvest status for 2010/11 and the corresponding availability for 2010/11. Interest was to determine the preliminary status concluded through capturing the effect of factors affecting crop production that ruled over the growth stages from seed germination to maturity. The exercise involved collection of the 2010/11 data and information from all the districts of mainland Tanzania in collaboration with Regional Agricultural Advisors (RAAs) and the District Agricultural and Livestock Development Officers (DALDOs). The process made use of regular tools that facilitate the routine retrieval system while monitoring field crop performance as well as market performance in respect of food availability and price signaling for early warning for food security. Accordingly and appropriately, production forecast was made for 2010/11 crop season and food security forecast was made for 2011/12 marketing year. The retrieval tools used focused at 1. Management based Snap- short information, 2. Crop target implementation status, 3. In-field crop phenological assessment, 4. Pest prevalence assessment, 5. Market Food Availability assessment 6. Rainfall availability assessment and 7. Vulnerability detection assessment. An analysis covering these retrieval areas was undertaken and results are subject matter of this report presented in different volumes. The results concentrate on national and regional level food status with main highlights of regions and districts bearing vulnerable areas. For clarity purposes, we are pleased to note that WRS11 and TSA2 have also been critically analyzed and results are also part of this presentation as Volume 2 and Volume 3 respectively banking on field intimacy involving MAFC experts and field teams at regional as well as at district levels. From the analysis, it has been found that 12,810,818 tonnes of food crops was forecasted to be available from farm production comprised of 6,786,605 tonnes of cereals3 and 6,024,217 tonnes of non-cereals4 (Table 1, Figure 1) and would meet national food requirement amounting 11,499,414 tonnes of food by 111 percent implying a 1,311,404 tonnes of surplus food (Table 1).

1 WRS1 is a weekly retrieval system tool that captures district level targets vs. implementation of area planted and expected production in 12 main food crops as compiled by DALDOs. 2 TSA is an analytical procedure that assesses snapshot stories summarising food crop performance, WRS1-5 and cash crop performance as recorded by field level experts and concludes with field level perception of expected food situation. This analysis offers a good debate ground linking between SSR and the local level expectations of food security situation appropriate for data dissemination seminars. 3 The cereal crops covered under CMEWS include maize, sorghum, millets, rice and wheat. 4 The non-cereals include pulses, cassava, banana and potatoes

21 Figure 1: Tanzania Preliminary Food Production Forecast by Crop in 2010/11 (Proportions of 12,810,818 Tonnes)

Potatoes 13% Maize Cassava 33% 8%

SSR = 111%

Sorghum Banana Millets 6% 12% Pulses 2% Wheat Rice 14% 1% 11%

22 Table 1: The 2009/10 Preliminary Food Crop Production versus Requirement, Gap/Surplus Analysis and Self sufficiency Ratios at national level Cereals Production (Tonnes) 6,786,602 Requirement (Tonnes) 7,200,341 Gap/Surplus (Tonnes) -413,739 SSR - Cereals (%) 94 Non-cereals Production (Tonnes) 6,024,217 Requirement (Tonnes) 4,299,073 Gap/Surplus (Tonnes) 1,725,143 SSR - Non-cereals (%) 140 Total Food Production (Tonnes) 12,810,818 Requirement (Tonnes) 11,499,414 Gap/Surplus (Tonnes) 1,311,404 SSR - Total (%) 111

An analysis of Carryover stocks (COS) shows that, on the eve of new marketing year a total of 787,908 tonnes food stock was carried over into 2011/12 marketing year of which 189,966 tonnes was held in Nationa Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) premises while 203,988 tonnes was held by private stockists and 393,954 tonnes was estimated as farm retention.

23 i ii iii