Predictability and Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon by Cfsv2: Implication of the Initial

Supplemental Material for

Predictability and Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon by CFSv2: Implication of the Initial Shock Effect

Ravi P. Shukla1*, Bohua Huang1, 2, L. Marx1, James L. Kinter1, 2, Chul-Su Shin1, 2

1Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies George Mason University,Fairfax, Virginia, USA

2Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, USA

Contents of this file: Figures S1 to S7

Corresponding author: Dr. Ravi P. Shukla Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) 270 Research Hall, Mail Stop 6C5, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA E-mail: [email protected]

Figure S1. Time series of monthly U850 (black line; February to September) over the northern Indian Ocean (box in Fig. 1e; domain: 0o–15oN, 50oE–90oE) for 21 selected cases in the 50-year control simulation of CFSv2. Colored curves are forecast of U850 during the 21 cases initialized with February (red line) and May (blue line) initial conditions (ICs). We have indicated 7 strong monsoon (SM), 5 weak monsoon (WM) and 5 normal monsoon (NM) years. Years on each panel in map are model years. The unit of U850 is m/s.

Figure S2. Time series of monthly extended Indian monsoon rainfall (EISMR; black line; February to September) index (box in Fig. 1a; domain: 8oN–25oN, 70oE–85oE) for 21 selected cases in the 50- year control simulation of CFSv2. Colored curves are forecast of EISMR index in 21 cases initialized with February (red line) and May (blue line) ICs. We have indicated 7 strong monsoon (SM), 5 weak monsoon (WM) and 5 normal monsoon (NM) years. Years on each panel in map are model years. The unit of rainfall is mm/day.

Figure S3. (a) Anomaly pattern correlation and (b) RMSE of JJAS rainfall from February ICs (red line) and May ICs (blue line) over extended Indian domain (60oE-100oE, 5oN-25oN) only during 21 years prediction using CFSv2 w.r.t corresponding years in 50-years control simulation.

Figure S4: Strong and weak seasonal composites of rainfall based on the EIMRI for the control run (a, b). (c, d) as in (a, b) but for February initialized reforecast. (e, f) as in (a, b) but for May initialized reforecast in predictability experiment. Units are in mm/day.

Figure S5: The difference of JJAS ISMR index (Indian landmass region) between May initialized NCEP CFSv2 reforecast and GPCP for period 1982 to 2009.

Figure S6. Spatial distribution of the climatological difference of SLHF (colored shading), rainfall (contours), 10m-wind (vectors) in (a) May, (b) June, (c) July, (d) August between forecast initialized with Feb ICs and May ICs (Feb IC – May IC) over ISM region in the “CFSv2_rev retrospective forecast” for period 1979-2008 for “4 members mean”. The intervals of contours lines for rainfall are -3, -2.5, -2.0, -1.5, -1.0, -0.5, 0, .5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 mm/day and black contour denotes “0” value. (e)-(h) as in (a)-(d) but for “8 members mean”. (i)-(l) as in (a)-(d) but for “12 members mean”. The units of SLHF, rainfall and 10m-wind are W/m2, mm/day and m/s respectively.

Figure S7. Spatial distribution of the climatological difference of SST (colored shading), in (a) May, (b) June, (c) July, (d) August and (e) September between forecast initialized with Feb ICs and May ICs (Feb IC – May IC) over ISM region in the “CFSv2_rev retrospective forecast” for period 1979-2008 for “4 members mean”. (f)-(j) as in (a)-(e) but for “8 members mean”. (k)-(o) as in (a)-(e) but for “12 members mean”. The unit of SST is oC.