Weapon Technology and Security

Unconventional Weapons Technologies

Security Studies Program Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service Georgetown University

Class SEST-555 Kai-Henrik Barth, Ph.D. Fall Semester 2006 Mortara 206 ICC 209 A 202-687-3930 Thursdays 4:15-6:05 pm [email protected]

Office Hours: Wednesdays 2:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m., or by appointment [you may also use AIM, iChat or similar: my screen name is khb3georgetown]

Description: This course examines the historical development and security implications of contemporary weapon technologies, focusing in particular on: nuclear, radiological, biological, and chemical weapons; delivery systems such as cruise and ballistic missiles; and missile defense systems. The goal is to provide students with a better understanding of how these weapons are developed, how they work, and what effects they have. The course will assess the implications of these technologies for important security issues such as proliferation, homeland defense, and arms control. While this course analyzes the complex cultural, organizational, political, and security contexts in which these weapon technologies are developed and deployed, it also aims at providing students with a “technical literacy” to engage in technical-political debates surrounding these weapon systems. Please note that NO prior technical knowledge is required to succeed in this course.

Requirements: Students will write a midterm take-home exam and a 15-20-page research paper, due on Monday, December 11. Students will present their research results in one of the two final classes (November 30 and December 7). Students can choose from a variety of presentation modes, either oral in class, or via podcast (audio or video) or in a poster presentation. The midterm exam will require the student to craft an essay of about 3,000 words (about 10 pages), with a specific focus on technology and security implications of a particular unconventional weapon. The research paper should demonstrate a clear grasp of the technical aspects, the historical development, and the security implications of the weapon technology the student chose to analyze.

Finally, students will write one or two critical book reviews, each 4 pages long. You can choose to review any two books, either on the list of required or recommended books or any book directly related to the class material or your research papers. You should clearly state the author’s argument and then evaluate the evidence. You should then formulate a response to that argument based upon course readings and individual perspective. Most importantly: you must give evidence for your position. If your first review demonstrates your mastery of the art of book review writing, you can choose to

1 drop the second review and count your book review grade for the full 10%. If you are not satisfied with your first book review grade, you can submit a second book review. The higher grade of the two will count for the 10%.

Oral participation is key to succeeding in this class. Frequently, the students will work in small groups to discuss the material. This will give individuals the chance to participate more. Also, everyone will be asked more than twice to present his/her group’s results to the class. We will also have a number of technologies available to encourage discussion and exchange outside of the classroom, that is, a Blackboard discussion board and a class blog. Participation in these areas will also count as class participation. I will provide details in our first class.

Please note: If you have a documented physical or learning disability, I will be glad to make appropriate accommodations. Please contact me by August 31 (our first class) so that we can discuss these arrangements.

If you anticipate any conflicts between this schedule and your religious obligations, please inform me by August 31 so that we can make alternate arrangements.

Plagiarism: Unfortunately I have to emphasize this: don't present the ideas and writings of others as your own. I strongly encourage you to re-visit Georgetown's Honor Council website "What is Plagiarism?" at http://www.georgetown.edu/honor/plagiarism.html Also review the “Academic Integrity” section of the Graduate Bulletin of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. It can be found at http://www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gsas_www/pages/reg_7.cfm#plagiarism

Students agree that by taking this course all required papers may be subject to submission for a Textual Similarity Review to Turnitin.com for the detection of plagiarism. All submitted papers will be added as source documents in the Turnitin.com reference database solely for the purpose of detecting plagiarism of such papers in the future. Use of the Turnitin.com service is subject to the terms of use agreement posted on the Turnitin.com site.

Podcasting: Lectures and some class discussions will be recorded and made available to students. In addition, I will provide some brief video podcasts covering course material. This will help to free up more class time for interactive learning. Please note that these recordings are intended as a study aid, not as a replacement for attending class. I will give the technical details in class.

Grades: The final grade consists of the following parts:  Midterm Exam (10 pages): 20%  Research Paper (15-20 pages): 40%  Participation (in class and online): 20%  Research Paper Presentation 10%  Two book reviews (the better one counts) 10%

2 Required Books: 1. Richard Rhodes, The Making of the Atomic Bomb (New York: Touchstone, reprint 1995) 2. Office of Technology Assessment, Technologies Underlying Weapons of Mass Destruction (Washington, DC: OTA 1993) [available in class for $7; also available online at http://www.wws.princeton.edu/~ota/disk1/1993/9344_n.html ] 3. Jonathan B. Tucker, Chemical Warfare from World War I to Al-Qaeda (New York: Pantheon Books, 2006) 4. Jeanne Guillemin, Biological Weapons: From the Invention of State-Sponsored Programs to Contemporary Bioterrorism (New York: Columbia University Press, 2005) 5. Donald MacKenzie, Inventing Accuracy: A Historical Sociology of Nuclear Missile Guidance (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1993)

3 SEST-555 Calendar Fall 2006

Class One: August 31 – Introduction: Weapon Technology and Security Assignment: start thinking about research topic

Class Two: September 7 - Nuclear Weapons: History

Class Three: September 14 - Nuclear Weapons: Technology, Effects

Class Four: September 21 – Radiological Weapons and Nuclear Terrorism Due: Research Paper Proposal

Class Five: September 28 - Chemical Weapons: History Due: book review 1

Class Six: October 5 - Chemical Weapons: Agents, Threat Assessment

Class Seven: October 12 - Biological Weapons: History Assignment: Mid-term examination essay questions handed out

Class Eight: October 19 - Biological Weapons: Agents, Threat Assessment Due: Mid-term

Class Nine: October 26 - ICBMs and Missile Guidance

Class Ten: November 2 - Cruise Missiles

Class Eleven: November 9 - Missile Defense: History and Concepts Due: book review 2

Class Twelve: November 16 – Missile Defense: Technical Issues

November 23: no class, Thanksgiving break

Class Thirteen: November 30 – Research Paper Presentations

Class Fourteen: December 7 – Final Class: Research Paper Presentations

Research Paper: due Monday, December 11, 5pm

4 Reading List

Class One: August 31 – Introduction: Weapon Technology and Security Recommended:  Eugene B. Skolnikoff, The Elusive Transformation: Science, Technology, and the Evolution of International Politics (Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1993), chapter 3 on “National Security”, pp. 49-92 [available on Blackboard]

Class Two: September 2 - Nuclear Weapons: History  Rhodes, Making of the Atomic Bomb, pp. 279-560  Scott D. Sagan, “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb,” International Security 21:3 (Winter 1996/97), 54-86

Recommended:  David Holloway, Stalin and the Bomb (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1994)  George Perkovich, India's Nuclear Bomb (Berkeley: University of California Press, updated edition 2001)  John Wilson Lewis and Xue Litai, China Builds the Bomb (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1988)  Avner Cohen, Israel and the Bomb (New York: Columbia University Press, 1998)

Class Three: September 14 - Nuclear Weapons: Technology, Effects  Rhodes, Making of the Atomic Bomb, 617-788  OTA, Technologies Underlying Weapons of Mass Destruction (Washington, DC: OTA 1993), chapter 4, “Technical Aspects of Nuclear Proliferation,” pp. 117-195  Owen R. Coté, “A Primer on Fissile Materials and Nuclear Weapon Design,” in Graham T. Allison et al., Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1996), 203-228  Robert W. Nelson, “Nuclear Bunker Busters, Mini-Nukes, and the US Nuclear Stockpile,” Physics Today (November 2003), 32-37

Recommended:  Chuck Hansen, US Nuclear Weapons: The Secret History (Arlington: Aerofax, 1988), 18-29  Samuel Glasstone and Philip J. Dolan, The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, Third Edition (Washington, DC: Government Printing Offic, 1977) [available at http://www.princeton.edu/~globsec/publications/effects/effects.shtml]  Robert W. Nelson, “Low-Yield Earth-Penetrating Nuclear Weapons,” Science and Global Security 10 (2002), 1-20  Michael A. Levi, “Fire in the Hole: Nuclear and Non-Nuclear Options for Counterproliferation” (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Working Paper 31, November 2002) [available at http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/wp31.pdf ]

5  Departments of the Army, the Navy and the Air Force, NATO Handbook on the Medical Aspects of NBC Defensive Operations AmedP-6(B); Part I: Nuclear (Washington, D.C., 1 February 1996) [available at http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/doctrine/dod/fm8-9/1toc.htm ], in particular chapters 3 and 4 [16p and 8p]  Donald MacKenzie (with Graham Spinardi), “Tacit Knowledge and the Uninvention of Nuclear Weapons,” in Donald MacKenzie, Knowing Machines: Essays on Technical Change (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1996), 215-260

Class Four: September 21 – Radiological Weapons and Nuclear Terrorism  Charles D. Ferguson, William C. Potter, with Amy Sands, Leonard S. Spector, and Fred L. Wehling, The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism (Monterey Institute – Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Nuclear Threat Initiative, 2004) [available online at http://www.nti.org/c_press/analysis_4faces.pdf ]; please read chapters 4, 5, and 6  Carson Mark, Theodore Taylor, Eugene Eyster, William Maraman, and Jacob Wechsler, “Can Terrorists Build Nuclear Weapons?” (Paper Prepared for the International Task Force on the Prevention of Nuclear Terrorism, 1986) [available online at http://www.nci.org/k-m/makeab.htm ]

Recommended:  Graham Allison, Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe (New York: Times Books, 2004)  Departments of the Army, the Navy and the Air Force, NATO Handbook on the Medical Aspects of NBC Defensive Operations AmedP-6(B); Part I: Nuclear (Washington, D.C., 1 February 1996) [available at http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/doctrine/dod/fm8-9/1toc.htm], in particular chapter 5 [22p]  George Bunn, Chaim Braun, Alexander Glaser, Edward Lyman, and Fritz Steinhausler, “Research Reactor Vulnerability to Sabotage by Terrorists,” Science and Global Security, 11 (2003), 85-107  Matthew Bunn and Anthony Wier, “Securing the Bomb 2006” (Report commissioned by the Nuclear Threat Initiative, July 2006) [available at http://www.nti.org/e_research/stb06webfull.pdf ]; read pp. 1-103  Charles D. Ferguson, Tahseen Kazi, and Judith Perera, Commercial Radioactive Sources: Surveying the Security Risks (Monterey Institute of International Studies, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Occacional Paper No. 11, January 2003) [88p, available online at http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/opapers/op11/op11.pdf]

Recommended films:  LastBestChance, 2005 NTI [see www.lastbestchance.org]  Dirty War, 2005 HBO [see http://www.hbo.com/films/dirtywar/? ntrack_para1=leftnav_category3_show5 ] I will show the film after our class, on September 21, at 8:15pm in the Mortara Conference Room

Class Five: September 28 - Chemical Weapons: History

6  Jonathan B. Tucker, Chemical Warfare from World War I to Al-Qaeda (New York: Pantheon Books, 2006), 1-266

Recommended:  Jeffery K. Smart, “History of Chemical and Biological Warfare: An American Perspective,” in Frederick R. Sidell et al., Medical Aspects of Chemical and Biological Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of the Surgeon General, 1997), pp. 9-87 [available at http://www.nbc- med.org/SiteContent/HomePage/WhatsNew/MedAspects/Ch-2electrv699.pdf ]  Eric Croddy, Chemical and Biological Warfare: A Comprehensive Survey for the Concerned Citizen (New York: Copernicus Books, 2002); 127-190

Class Six: October 5 - Chemical Weapons: Agents, Threat Assessment  Jonathan B. Tucker, Chemical Warfare from World War I to Al-Qaeda (New York: Pantheon Books, 2006), 267-386  OTA, Technologies Underlying Weapons of Mass Destruction, 1993, chapter 2  Committee on Science and Technology for Countering Terrorism, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, National Research Council, Making the Nation Safer: The Role of Science and Technology in Countering Terrorism (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 2002), chapter 4, “Toxic Chemicals and Explosive Materials” [the whole report is available online at http://www.nap.edu/html/stct/ and on Blackboard]

Recommended:  Eric Croddy, Chemical and Biological Warfare: A Comprehensive Survey for the Concerned Citizen (New York: Copernicus Books, 2002); 1-126  Margaret E. Kosal, “The Basics of Chemical and Biological Weapons Detectors,” Monterey Institute of International Studies, November 24, 2003 [available at http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/week/031124.htm ]

Class Seven: October 12 - Biological Weapons: History  Jeanne Guillemin, Biological Weapons: From the Invention of State-Sponsored Programs to Contemporary Bioterrorism (New York: Columbia University Press, 2005), 1-147  Jonathan B. Tucker, “A Farewell to Germs: The U.S. Renunciation of Biological and Toxin Warfare, 1969-70,” International Security 27:1 (Summer 2002), 107-148

Recommended:  Judith Miller, Stephen Engelberg, William Broad, Germs: Biological Weapons and America's Secret War (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2001)  Eric Croddy, Chemical and Biological Warfare: A Comprehensive Survey for the Concerned Citizen (New York: Copernicus Books, 2002); 193-265  Ken Alibek, Biohazard (New York: Random House, 1999)  Jonathan B. Tucker, Scourge: The Once and Future Threat of Smallpox (New York: Atlantic Monthly Press, 2001)

7  Brian Balmer, Britain and Biological Warfare: Expert Advice and Science Policy, 1930-65 (New York: Palgrave, 2001)

Class Eight: October 19 - Biological Weapons: Agents, Threat Assessment  Jeanne Guillemin, Biological Weapons: From the Invention of State-Sponsored Programs to Contemporary Bioterrorism (New York: Columbia University Press, 2005), 148-205  OTA, Technologies Underlying Weapons of Mass Destruction, chapter 3: Technical Aspects of Biological Weapon Proliferation  Gregory Koblentz, “Pathogens as Weapons: The International Security Implications of Biological Warfare,” International Security 28:3 (Winter 2003/04), 84-122.  Christopher F. Chyba and Alex L. Greninger, “Biotechnology and Bioterrorism: An Unprecedented World,” Survival 46:2 (Summer 2004), 143-162.  Center for Biosecurity at UPMC et al. “Atlantic Storm,” briefing slides (2005), http://www.atlantic-storm.org/materials/slides.html

Recommended:  Joshua Lederberg, ed., Biological Weapons: Limiting the Threat (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1999)  Jonathan B. Tucker (ed.), Toxic Terror: Assessing Terrorist Use of Chemical and Biological Weapons (Cambridge, MA: BCSIA Studies in International Security, 2000)  Raymond A. Zilinskas, Bioterrorism Threat Assessment and Risk Management Workshop: Final Report and Commentary (Report presented to the U.S. Department of Energy, June 24, 2003) [available online at http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/reports/pdfs/biorisk.pdf]  Rebecca L. Frerichs et al., Historical Precedence and Technical Requirements of Biological Weapons Use: A Threat Assessment,” Sandia National Laboratories, SAND2004-1854 (May 2004) [available at http://www.biosecurity.sandia.gov/documents/historic-precedence2002.pdf ]  Laurie Garrett, “The Nightmare of Bioterrorism,” Foreign Affairs (January/February 2001), 76-89

Class Nine: October 26 - ICBMs and Missile Guidance  Donald MacKenzie, Inventing Accuracy, 1-239

Recommended:  Michael J. Neufeld, The Rocket and the Reich: Peenemünde and the Coming of the Ballistic Missile Era (New York: Free Press, 1995)  Edmund Beard, Developing the ICBM: A Study in Bureaucratic Politics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1976)  Dinshaw Mistry, Containing Missile Proliferation: Strategic Technology, Security Regimes, and International Cooperation in Arms Control (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 2003)

8  Dinshaw Mistry, “Beyond the MTCR: Building a Comprehensive Regime to Contain Ballistic Missile Proliferation,” International Security 27:4 (Spring 2003), 119-149  Federation of American Scientists, Special Weapons Primer, Ballistic Missiles [available at http://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/missile/index.html ]  Thomas P. Hughes, Rescuing Prometheus (New York: Vintage Books, 2000), chapter 3, “Managing a Military-Industrial Complex: Atlas”

Class Ten: November 2 - Cruise Missiles  Donald MacKenzie, Inventing Accuracy, 240-381  View online: Dennis Gormley, “The Special Challenges of Cruise Missile Proliferation,” Presentation at SSP Speaker Series on Technology and Security, April 8, 2004 (video stream available at rtsp://gustream.georgetown.edu/cndls/colloquium/barth/gormley/gormley_stream_fin al.mov ; please note: only accessible from a Georgetown IP address)

Recommended:  Dennis M. Gormley, Dealing with the Threat of Cruise Missiles (Adelphi Papers International Institute for Strategic Studies, No 339), 2001 [120 pp]

Class Eleven: November 9 - Missile Defense: History and Concepts  Donald R. Baucom, The U.S. Missile Defense Program, 1944-1994: Fifty Years of Progress (Washington, DC: BMDO, The Pentagon, 1994) [online at http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/program/docs/ADA338903.pdf ] 43pp  Donald R. Baucom, “National Missile Defense: An Overview (1993-2000)” [available online at http://www.mda.mil/mdalink/html/nmdhist.html] 24pp  Rumsfeld Report, Executive Summary, “Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States,” July 15, 1998 [available at http://fas.org/irp/threat/missile/rumsfeld/toc.htm]  Richard L. Garwin and Hans A. Bethe, “Anti-Ballistic-Missile Systems,” Scientific American vol. 218:3 (March 1968), 21-31  Ronald Reagan, Announcement of Strategic Defense Initiative, March 23, 1983 [online at http://www.mda.mil/mdalink/html/sdio.html] 2pp  Baker Spring, “The Operational Missile Defense Capability: A Historic Advance for the Defense of the American People,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder September 22, 2004 [available at http://www.heritage.org/Research/MissileDefense/bg1798.cfm]

Recommended:  Bradley Graham, Hit to Kill: The New Battle Over Shielding America From Missile Attack (New York: Public Affairs, 2001)  James M. Lindsay and Michael O’Hanlon, Defending America: The Case for Limited National Missile Defense (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2001)  Frances Fitzgerald, Way out there in the Blue: Reagan, Star Wars and the End of the Cold War (New York: Touchstone, 2000)  Donald R. Baucom, The Origins of SDI: 1944-1983 (Lawrence, KA: University Press of Kansas, 1992)

9  Ashton B. Carter and David N. Schwartz, eds., Ballistic Missile Defense (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1984)  George N. Lewis, Theodore A. Postol, and John Pike, “Why National Missile Defense Won't Work,” Scientific American Vol. 281: 2 (August 1999), 37-41.  Theodore A. Postol, “Lessons of the Gulf War Experience with Patriot,” International Security 16:3 (Winter 1991/92), 110-171

Recommended film:  Missile Wars, PBS, 53 minutes [video stream available at http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/missile/view/ ]

Class Twelve: November 16 – Missile Defense: Technical Issues  Missile Defense Agency, read all technical fact sheets on website at http://www.mda.mil/mdalink/html/factsheet.html and skim through recent “Missile Defense News” at http://www.mda.mil/mdalink/html/newsrel.html  Stephen Hildreth, North Korean Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, CRS Report RS21473, updated July 6, 2006 [online at http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RS21473.pdf ]  Theresa Hitchens (with Victoria Samson), “Technical Hurdles in U.S. Missile Defense Agency Programs,” in James Clay Moltz, ed., New Challenges in Missile Proliferation, Missile Defense, and Space Security, Monterey Institute of International Studies, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, and University of Southhampton, Mountbatten Centre for International Studies, Occasional Paper No. 12 (July 2003), pp. 10-17 [online at http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/opapers/op12/ ]

Read ONE of the following two reports carefully, and skim the executive summary of the other one. Be prepared to present the major results!  Union of Concerned Scientists and MIT Security Studies Program, Countermeasures: A Technical Evaluation of the Operational Effectiveness of the Planned US National Missile Defense System, April 2000 [online at http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_security/CM_all.pdf], in particular chapters 4-9 [pp. 31-89]  American Physical Society Study Group, Boost-Phase Intercept Systems for National Missile Defense: Scientific and Technical Issues (July 2003) [online at http://www.aps.org/public_affairs/popa/reports/nmd03.cfm], in particular chapters 5- 9 [pp. 63-153]

 View online: David Mosher, RAND: “The Feasibility of Boost Phase Missile Defense,” Presentation at SSP Speaker Series on Technology and Security, February 9, 2005 (video stream available at http://www.georgetown.edu/faculty/khb3/CPASS/media/DavidMosherPart1.mov [IP protected: works only on campus])

Recommended:

10  Charles L. Glaser and Steve Fetter, “National Missile Defense and the Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy,” International Security 26:1 (Summer 2001), 40-92 [on Blackboard]  Lisbeth Gronlund, David C. Wright, George N. Lewis, and Philip E. Coyle III, Technical Realities: An Analysis of the 2004 Deployment of a U.S. National Missile Defense System (Union of Concerned Scientists, May 2004) [online at http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_security/technicalrealities_fullreport. pdf]  Steven A. Hildreth et al., “Missile Defense: The Current Debate,” CRS Report RL31111, updated July 19, 2005 [available at http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/RL31111.pdf ]

November 23: No Class: Thanksgiving

Class Thirteen: November 30 – Research Paper Presentation

Class Thirteen: December 7 – Research Paper Presentation

Monday, December 11, 5pm: Research Paper due