Workplan Overview: New Methods Of Preparedness For Catastrophic Disasters

Instructor Notes for Session No. 12

Course Title: Catastrophe Readiness and Response

Session Title: New Methods of Planning for Catastrophic Disasters

Authors: Jasmin Ruback, PhD, Scott Wells & Rick Bissell, Ph.D.

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Learning Objectives (Slide 1)

By the end of this session (lecture and exercises) the student should be able to: 12.1 Describe catastrophic planning assumptions and context 12.2 Describe the newly developing methods for catastrophic disaster planning. 12.3 Know the current legislation 12.4 Describe current catastrophe planning initiatives 12.5 Understand the reality of power and politics in catastrophe response planning ______

Session Overview

This unit is designed to examine current innovations in catastrophe planning by way of five topic discussions:

 Setting the catastrophe planning context (e.g., environment)  Examining new methodology and analytical tools for dealing with catastrophe planning  Knowing legislation for catastrophic planning  Describing current national and international catastrophe response planning initiatives  Understanding political realities in disaster planning

As students have learned that catastrophes are fundamentally different from disasters in many ways (instructor may want to review Session 2). The current mainstream disaster planning techniques used throughout the United States are not seamlessly applicable to catastrophe planning therefore new planning methods are being developed.

(Slide 2) Note to instructor about terminology. It is useful to use FEMA’s definition of “catastrophe” for this session as the case studies are based on it. To review, FEMA’s definition of a catastrophe is: “. . . any natural or manmade incident, including terrorism that results in extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption severely affecting the population, infrastructure, environment, economy, national morale, and/or government functions.”

1 The suggested readings are:

 The Catastrophic Incident Annex: http://www.fema.gov/pdf/emergency/nrf/nrf_CatastrophicIncidentAnnex.pdf

 Preparedness: FEMA Has Made Progress, but Needs to Complete and Integrate Planning, Exercise, and Assessment Efforts http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-369

2 12.1 Setting the Catastrophe Response Planning Assumptions and Context (Slide 3):

In this course we will discuss the new methodologies used for catastrophe response planning. First the instructor will describe the environmental and social context and planning assumptions used for catastrophe planning. This context involves:

 Magnitude and scope of the catastrophic event  Lack of prior experience with the catastrophic event and  Increased overall complexity of the event(s)

Magnitude and scope of the catastrophic event (Slide 4):

A catastrophe will hit hard and wide. Local governments may be rendered incapable of response. Local law enforcement may be overwhelmed. Basic life support mechanisms (i.e. water, food, shelter, health care) may not be available for weeks or months in many affected areas.

As a nation we were used to dealing with disasters that affect one region at a time however, Hurricane Katrina showed us that an impact of a natural event can affect more than one region (in Katrina’s case FEMA regions IV and VI) crippling the national response and recovery. The need to develop and utilize different planning methods for catastrophic disaster is a necessity even going beyond regions to include state and national borders. Research from regional mitigation activities shows that aspects of successful regional collaboration included engaging citizens who saw the bigger picture of where and how disaster could strike, expanding one’s sense of community to fit the size of the potential hazard, building and guiding key relationships, knowing where to turn for information and resources, and sharing both successes and failures. Regional leaders face fairly different challenges depending on the makeup of their geography, weather systems, proximity to hazards and risks, local cultures and resource base.

Classroom Breakout Session and Discussion: A brief note on the definition of region: The word "region" has at least 2 definitions. Some (e.g., federal officials) talk about FEMA regions which are distinct geographical states assigned to each FEMA (or HHS or EPA) region. Others (e.g., county or state officials) refer to it in a more generalized sense to convey an area that encompasses several local jurisdictions (e.g., cities, counties). This is important to discuss with students because these seemingly simple delineations have complex implications for planning.

Lack of Prior Experience (Slide 5)

Disaster research has shown that prior experience may itself be a resource for disaster victims (Norris & Murrell, 1988). Prior disaster experience has been found to be a powerful predictor of preparedness (Demerath, 1957; fritz, 1961; Hutton, 1976; Moore et al., 1963; Perry et al, 1981). Riad et al (1996) found that prior evacuation behavior significantly predicted future evacuation behavior, whereas prior disaster experience did not. This led the authors to believe there is an “evacuation repertoire” because people

3 who have evacuated before know what to do and how to act. This repertoire is very individualized. Prior evacuation experience may give a sense of control and a sense of self efficacy. Individuals may feel prepared for the storm but may not feel they have the capability to deal with the evacuation process if they have not done this before. The same feeling could occur on a community level. Some regions (e.g., those who have dealt with disaster continually) are often considered better prepared than others. The old adage, “practice makes perfect” could apply here. This is important because we have never had a 10 KT nuclear detonation or a 7.7 magnitude earthquake (since 1812) in the New Madrid fault zone.

Overall Complexity of Catastrophe (Slide 6):

The operational tempo for responding to a catastrophic event becomes faster as the response needs on the ground become greater, the need to help injured people grows, the distances spanned become longer and the political pressures increase. Our ability to surge as a nation becomes thinner as the disaster becomes more complicated. Some kinds of resources may not ever be sufficient in some catastrophes, even using national resources: For example, health care facilities, personnel, and treatment modalities (i.e. drugs and other treatment supplies).

Catastrophic events have more interdependency and the effects snowball. When one network is down it gets magnified (e.g., electric power out, gas out, roads out). In New Madrid, for example, liquefaction of the ground becomes an issue for setting up operations. Providers of energy (electricity, gasoline, natural gas, heating oil) are highly networked, even across national boundaries. Information services are also highly networked and tied into the availability of electrical power; both systems are vulnerable to disruption that can take many weeks or months to reset. Financial losses are so high that no single source will be able to cover them. Communities need funding right away.

12.2 Catastrophe Response Planning Innovations (Slide 7):

The innovations discussed are:  New decision making tools  Change in focus from all-hazard to scenario-specific planning  Predictive modeling techniques and analysis

New Decision Making Tools (Slide 8):

There are two relatively new and untried decision making tools to help emergency managers plan for catastrophe. The first is the Catastrophic Incident S (CIS) supplement to the Catastrophic Incident Annex to the National Response Framework. The second decision making tool is the Catastrophic Incident Annex to the National Response Framework. It “establishes the context and overarching strategy for implementing and coordinating an accelerated, proactive national response to a catastrophic incident.” These tools serve to cut bureaucracy and speed up the pace for providing life-saving and life-sustaining resources in catastrophic events.

4 Change of focus from All-Hazards planning to scenario-specific events (Slide 9):

All-hazards planning is the conventional planning methodology being used in most jurisdictions, and is the FEMA-supported methodology for jurisdictional disaster response planning. The basic concept is that the responses to disasters are essentially the same, irrespective of the causes. So the focus of these plans is to develop general procedures that can be applied across the full spectrum of types and magnitudes of disasters. As we have seen in previous sessions in this class, the complexity and broad reach of catastrophes is too immense to be adequately addressed by a one-design-fits-all approach, such as is found in all-hazards planning and preparedness. Neighboring jurisdictions may use the same all-hazards NIMS-based approach to planning and preparedness, but come up with significantly different actual response plans to a given disaster type. When that disaster becomes a catastrophe covering many jurisdictions, the dissimilar response plans of individual jurisdictions make it difficult to conduct a coordinated response to the catastrophe. Multi-jurisdictional scenario-specific catastrophe response planning can significantly decrease the conflicts and inefficiencies that would otherwise exist.

On the other hand, scenario-based planning uses a specific scenario to establish a framework for modeling disaster effects and potential needed resources and evaluating regional emergency management capabilities. This process uses decision matrices that can be manipulated to provide a means of quickly determining baseline estimates for resource needs and identifying possible shortfalls for various events. In the planning stages, the information provided by the matrices allows the entire emergency management system to be analyzed for gaps. Scenario specific planning, unlike all- hazards planning, also addresses decrements based on the disaster. Factoring in losses of first responders, EOCs, fire and police stations, etc. provides a more realistic picture for planners. (www.FloridaDisaster.org/CatastrophicPlanning). Gap analysis will be discussed in more detail in the next section.

Classroom Breakout Session and Discussion: Split the students into 2 groups and ask one group to discuss the benefits of all hazards planning and the other group to discuss scenario specific planning.

Predictive Modeling Techniques (Slide 10):

Note to instructor: The goal of this section is not to teach the students how to use the predictive modeling techniques but to introduce them. The techniques are an important base for understanding the current catastrophe response planning initiatives discussed later in the session.

For catastrophe response planning, FEMA uses a variety of predictive modeling techniques that are scientifically based. We will discuss two of them in detail, HAZUS and Gap Analysis.

5 HAZUS-MH is a standardized methodology for analyzing potential losses from floods, hurricane winds and earthquakes. In HAZUS-MH, current scientific and engineering knowledge is coupled with the latest geographic information systems (GIS) technology to produce estimates of hazard-related damage before, or after, a disaster occurs. This provides a relatively realistic and comprehensive set of consequences upon which to base planning assumptions. Potential loss estimates analyzed in HAZUS-MH include:

 Physical damage to residential and commercial buildings, schools, critical facilities, and infrastructure;  Economic loss, including lost jobs, business interruptions, repair and reconstruction costs; and  Social impacts, including estimates of shelter requirements, displaced households, and population exposed to scenario floods, earthquakes and hurricanes. (http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/index.shtm). HAZUS has been used by FEMA for many years. It continues to be refined and is updated often.

Use of Gap Analysis (Slide 11):

Another modeling technique used by FEMA is the Gap Analysis Program. Gap analysis allows emergency managers to determine their local capacity and the resources on hand, the resources required in a catastrophic event, and the gaps or what is missing in between. Gap analysis provides critical information as to what resources will be needed on the local, state and national levels, providing critical lead time to gather resources and provide assistance to citizens in need. Determining the gap between the resources available and the resources required during a catastrophic event will give state and federal agencies a heads up on the types of resources that will be required during a catastrophic event.

There are six phases of GAP listed below as defined in FEMA’s GAP Analysis Program Guidance Document:

Phase 1: Select Disaster Scenario A state’s resource and capability gaps are measured by comparing immediately-available response resources to estimates of what would be needed in advance of and in response to major disaster events. In Phase 1, states select and describe a hazard reflective of their risk profile and determine an affected geographic area that together define a disaster scenario to be modeled or simulated in Phase 2.

Phase 2: Estimate Response Requirements Response requirements are a measure of the emergency management resources and capabilities that will be required by the state to fully and independently respond to a disaster. In the absence of actual disaster events, models and/or simulations are used to generate response requirements. In Phase 2, the states (or FEMA Regions) model or simulate the disaster scenario that was selected and developed in Phase 1.

6 Phase 3: Measure Baseline Preparedness States measure baseline preparedness by collecting and compiling a data inventory of the emergency management resources and capabilities maintained at the state level, by individual local jurisdictions (county/parish/city), mutual aid partners, the National Guard, nongovernmental (NGO) resources, and private sector partners.

Phase 4: Define the Gaps Comparing baseline preparedness data generated in Phase 3 to response requirements generated in Phase 2 identifies emergency management resource or capability shortfalls. These identified gaps are then reported to GAP stakeholders in order to enhance operational planning.

Phase 5: Develop and Implement Strategies GAP stakeholders reduce or eliminate response capability shortfalls, identify alternate resources as necessary, and provide the federal government with the information it needs to plan for providing assistance to the state. States are expected through their own efforts to target priority areas where improvements to resource levels and capabilities are most needed before relying on federal support.

Phase 6: Evaluate and Apply Lessons Learned In this last phase, areas for program improvement are identified and addressed, and best practices are tracked and institutionalized. GAP taps into the unique experience of each FEMA Region and state in their efforts to collect data, select disaster scenarios, generate response requirements, and identify and address gaps. States and FEMA Regions can greatly assist each other by sharing their valuable lessons learned.

As the use of the Hurricane Gap Analysis Tool becomes more extensive, FEMA plans to incorporate additional modeling capabilities to validate the data received and to forecast needs based on different variables. Some of FEMA's other modeling tools are:

 HurrEvac ( Hurricane Evacuation) to help in the tracking of hurricanes and assist in evacuation decision making;  SLOSH ( Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) to enable estimates of storm surge heights and winds resulting from historical, hypothetical, or predicted hurricanes by taking into account pressure, size, forward speed, track, and winds;  The US Army Corps of Engineers modeling tools which rely on geo-spatial capabilities to provide hurricane disaster estimates of debris volumes; water, ice, and commodity needs; and the number of people within the households likely within hurricane force winds; and  NISAC (National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center) advanced modeling and simulation capabilities to analyze critical infrastructure interdependencies and vulnerabilities.

In summary, both HAZUS and Gap Analysis play an important role in catastrophic preparedness. In the sciences in general, the strongest results come from using multiple

7 methodologies and multiple measures. These techniques are not in competition with each other but used together can provide a stronger tool for policy decision makers to rely on.

12.3 Current Legislation for Catastrophe Response Planning (Slide 12)

Legislation in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina (i.e. the Post-Katrina Emergency Reform Act and amendments to the Homeland Security Act of 2002) have greatly changed and expanded the responsibilities of FEMA. Among the many changes that expand FEMA’s roles and responsibilities are requirements to address catastrophe preparedness. For example, in Sections 503 and 504 of the Federal Emergency Management Act (6 U.S.C 313) of the Homeland Security Act of 2002 as amended by the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2007—there are specific catastrophe requirements to:

“partner with State, local, and tribal governments and emergency response providers, with other Federal agencies, with the private sector, and with nongovernmental organizations to build a national system of emergency management that can effectively and efficiently utilize the full measure of the nation’s resources to respond to natural disasters, acts of terrorism, and other man-made disasters, including catastrophic incidents.”

“The Administrator shall provide Federal leadership necessary to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, or mitigate against a natural disaster…including … developing a national emergency management system that is capable of preparing for, protecting against, responding to, recovering from, and mitigating against catastrophic incidents.

To fulfill the legislative requirements noted above, DHS developed two planning systems-- The Integrated Planning System (IPS) and the Catastrophic Planning Program (CPP). Both play vital roles in helping the agency conduct its mission and responsibilities. Both programs have a regional emphasis but are very different in their approaches.

12.4 Catastrophe Planning Initiatives (Slide 13)

This section describes the Integrated Planning System (IPS), the Catastrophic Planning Program (CPP), and the Northatlantic Hypercomplexity approach. The focus is on 1) planning approaches they take, 2) their strengths and weaknesses, and 3) case studies when available.

The Integrated Planning System (IPS) (Slide 14):

The IPS uses 15 National Planning Scenarios to develop generic federal plans (Strategic Plans, CONPLANS, OPLANS, and Tactical Plans). This program involves all of the federal departments and agencies that have roles in federal response and recovery activities. This scenario-based regional planning and exercise program uses a more

8 traditional “top-down” approach to authority. DHS develops the Strategic Statement and Strategic Plans, FEMA develops the CONPLANs, and supporting federal agencies develop OPLANS and Tactical Plans. The IPS uses a wide range of scenarios but focuses on terrorism scenarios. These IPS scenarios are generic; in other words they can occur in practically every state.

Process of creating the National Planning Scenarios (From: http://www.fema.gov/txt/media/factsheets/2009/npd_natl_plan_scenario.txt)

In November 2003, the Homeland Security Council (HSC) and DHS convened an interagency Scenario Working Group (SWG). The objective was to develop the minimum number of representative scenarios required to develop and test the range of required prevention, protection, response, and recovery resources. The SWG refined and vetted fifteen all-hazards planning scenarios. Twelve represent terrorist attacks; three represent natural disasters or naturally-occurring epidemics. This ratio reflects the fact that the United States has recurring experience with natural disasters but faces newfound dangers, including the increasing potential for use of weapons of mass destruction by terrorists. Each of the 15 scenarios follows the same outline to include a detailed scenario description, planning considerations, and implications.

The scenarios form the basis for coordinated federal planning, training, exercises, and grant investments needed to prepare for all-hazards. DHS employed the scenarios as the basis for a rigorous task analysis of prevention, protection, response and recovery missions and identification of key tasks that supported development of essential all- hazards capabilities. The task analysis was used to develop the Target Capabilities List (TCL). The TCL defines 37 specific capabilities that communities, the private sector, and all levels of government should collectively possess in order to respond effectively to all- hazards.

National Planning Scenario Prequels

For each of the 12 terrorism-related National Planning Scenarios, the FEMA National Preparedness Directorate (NPD) partnered with DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis (I&A) and other intelligence community and law enforcement experts to develop and validate prevention prequels. The National Planning Scenario Planning Prequels provide an understanding of terrorists’ motivation, capability, intent, tactics, techniques and procedures and technical weapons data. The Prequels also provide a credible adversary based on known threats to test the homeland security community’s ability to understand and respond to indications and warnings (I&W) of possible terrorist attacks.

Key Scenario Sets for National Planning Scenarios

1. Explosives Attack – Bombing Using Improvised Explosive Device Scenario 12: Explosives Attack – Bombing Using Improvised Explosive Device

2. Nuclear Attack Scenario 1: Nuclear Detonation – Improvised Nuclear Device

9 3. Radiological Attack – Radiological Dispersal Device Scenario 11: Radiological Attack – Radiological Dispersal Device

4. Biological Attack – With annexes for different pathogens Scenario 2: Biological Attack – Aerosol Anthrax Scenario 4: Biological Attack – Plague Scenario 13: Biological Attack – Food Contamination Scenario 14: Biological Attack – Foreign Animal Disease

5. Chemical Attack – With annexes for different agents Scenario 5: Chemical Attack – Blister Agent Scenario 6: Chemical Attack – Toxic Industrial Chemicals Scenario 7: Chemical Attack – Nerve Agent Scenario 8: Chemical Attack – Chlorine Tank Explosion

6. Natural Disaster – With annexes for different disasters Scenario 9: Natural Disaster – Major Earthquake Scenario 10: Natural Disaster – Major Hurricane

7. Cyber Attack Scenario 15: Cyber Attack

8. Pandemic Influenza Scenario 3: Biological Disease Outbreak – Pandemic Influenza

The strengths of the IPS are:

 It addresses the greatest threats to our nation across a wide spectrum of man-made and natural events  It has access to classified information  It was created by professionals with a great deal of expertise  It involved many different agencies and departments in our government  It plans for the most destructive event not the event that is the most common or the one that local individuals have the most experience with (e.g., hurricanes, drought).  Its ability to easily fit into a traditional incident command structure makes it simpler for participants to grasp what their roles and responsibilities will be.  The IPS approach is scenario-based, forcing jurisdictions at all levels to figure out how they would actually respond to a highly challenging set of circumstances, one of which is that immediately surrounding jurisdictions are struggling with the same issues and will not be able to jump in with mutual aid.  The scenario exercise component encourages/forces high-level politicians and decision makers to “play”.

10  This approach is already in practical implementation, although still on a trial basis.

The weaknesses of the IPS are:  That it is federal in its orientation meaning that the stakeholders involved in the planning are a very specific group of government employees and contractors.  It is terrorism centric.  It is very limited in its damages and may not reveal all potential outcomes.  The level of detail is low.  It uses a boiler plate outline, making the planning process easy, generic and broad based.  The top-down character of the IPS approach places the focus primarily on federal government response, largely leaving non-governmental agencies, citizen groups, and citizens themselves out of the planning and preparedness process.

There is no public case study of IPS available. FEMA uses table top exercises to validate these plans.

The Catastrophic Planning Program (CPP) Slide 17:

The Catastrophic Planning Program has a national orientation that involves integrating local, state, federal regional and national organizations. This program uses an intensive regional “bottom-up” approach based on a single scenario. For example, in the New Madrid project described in detail in Case Study #2, local jurisdictions of counties and cities conduct planning, workshops, and exercises to develop their plans. This is followed by states using the products and insights from the local level to develop state plans. In turn, the FEMA regions use the state products as the foundation for developing their regional earthquake plans. Lastly, the national-level plan will be developed after all these local, state, and regional planning activities are completed. The Catastrophic Planning Program addresses only natural incidents that are of the greatest threat to our nation. This program focuses on catastrophe response planning for a specific location large enough to encompass many jurisdictions. This type of planning approach is scientifically sound and scenario-driven, is focused on capability and required resources, based on collaboration and partnerships, and is holistic in nature

Case Study #1: The Florida Catastrophic Planning Project (From www.FloridaDisaster.org/CatastrophicPlanning )

Instructor Note: This entire section was taken from the Florida website (address above) because in the spirit of bottom up planning we thought it wise to take the words straight from the individuals who were coordinating the work. If you are low on time, we have provided a summary located at the end of this case study.

11 The FEMA sponsored Florida Catastrophic Planning (FLCP) Initiative, which began in November 2006, considers two large-scale incidents resulting in projected consequences of catastrophic proportions: a breach of the Herbert Hoover Dike (HHD) around the waters of Lake Okeechobee and a Category 5 hurricane impacting the entire South Florida peninsula, which has a population of nearly seven million. In April 2006, experts hired to evaluate the HHD said that the dike posed “a grave and imminent danger.” If the dike were to fail, the communities surrounding Lake Okeechobee would be flooded, resulting in great human suffering and loss of life. Additionally, Florida’s vulnerability to hurricanes has long been a concern for emergency planners. In 1992, Hurricane Andrew struck South Florida with near-catastrophic effects. In 2004, Florida was hit by four major hurricanes, raising the level of awareness of this threat. More significantly, the response to Hurricane Katrina vividly illustrated the importance of catastrophe response planning.

While Florida has successfully handled many significant disasters, it is the job of emergency management to be thinking of the next “what if” and plan for it. A direct hit by a Category 5 hurricane with a subsequent failure of the HHD could have a devastating impact—not only on Florida but also to the entire U.S. economy. Millions of people are expected to be displaced for a significant period of time. Concern over this prompted the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the State of Florida to begin the FLCP initiative in the fall of 2006.

The main products of the FLCP project will be two sets of plans: County, regional state, and supporting federal response plans for a failure of the HHD; and, county, regional state, and supporting federal response plans for a catastrophic event impacting South Florida, specifically a Category 5 hurricane

As part of technical assistance to develop these plans, this project includes data collection and comprehensive capability assessments of local, state, and federal resources to support response to a failure of the HHD and a Category 5 hurricane striking South Florida. Analysis of the assessments and draft county plans will help to identify resource gaps, inconsistencies, and competing interests for limited resources. These issues are addressed by participants from multiple agencies and levels of government through operational workgroups and at planning workshops.

Approach: A planning and technical assistance team directly supports the FLCP Initiative. Project planners are distributed throughout Florida with three (3) planners deployed to South Florida to coordinate local planning efforts. Additionally, three (3) planners are deployed to North Florida in support of state and federal level efforts. The FLCP team is responsible for coordinating a local-up planning approach built on a scenario-based required resource process. Subject matter experts and responders who share responsibility for implementing disaster operations author plans, procedures & protocols thru function specific workgroup collaboration. Consequence based thresholds and resource shortfalls are identified at the lowest jurisdictional levels then used as the bases for both state and federal level planning.

12 Scenario-Based Planning: The FLCP planning process is driven by a planning scenario known as Hurricane Ono. In this approach, a plausible, but fictional, event and its consequences are used to develop core concepts and coordinate existing ones. This planning process promotes communication and builds stronger relationships among federal, state, local, and tribal agencies and non-governmental organizations that are critical in an effective unified response and recovery.

The Hurricane Ono Scenario: After a winter of drought conditions and a summer during which several lingering tropical depressions have saturated central and southern Florida, the level of Lake Okeechobee has reached eighteen feet. Hurricane Ono, a large Category 5 hurricane, makes landfall at 11 a.m. EDT on Monday, September 10, just north of Fort Lauderdale. The storm travels northwest across the state, maintaining Category 4 strength as it grazes the southwest reaches of Lake Okeechobee. The surge on the lake causes a breach of Reach 2 of the HHD in the vicinity of Clewiston. Tornadoes spawned by the hurricane also touch down on the dike, causing breaches in Reaches 1B and 1C near the towns of Pahokee and Belle Glade. Wind and flood control actions also cause the S80 structure on the St. Lucie Canal to fail. Ono continues across the state and, after spending 36 hours over land, exits into the Gulf of Mexico at Pinellas County.

Once over the Gulf, Ono regains strength, turns north, and makes a second landfall as a Category 4 hurricane on the Gulf coast of Alabama, between Mobile and Pensacola, before deteriorating rapidly into a tropical storm.

Consequences: Preliminary models show that Ono would prompt an evacuation of nearly 3 million residents, put most of South Florida under 1–4+ feet of water for weeks, destroy the homes of more than 70 percent of the population, leave six million people without electricity; and cripple the state’s transportation infrastructure. The expected impacts of Hurricane Ono are described in more detail in the Consequence Projections documents linked below.

While planning discussions are applicable to a range of catastrophic events, Hurricane Ono and the projected consequences establish the necessary capacity of response and recovery functions. Consequence projections also illustrate the catastrophic scenario and highlight the situational complexities that should be considered during planning. For example, if research and analysis indicate that a segment of the population in the area of impact are projected to require post-storm evacuation assistance, the plan must address the personnel, resource, transportation, triage, staging, jurisdictional, legal, and geographic challenges that such a demand would present.

Strategic Sessions: Strategic Sessions are facilitated, objective driven sessions designed to provide a cross-discipline forum for validating emerging or maturing concepts and eliminate the “white page syndrome” that often inhibits development of operational plans. These sessions foster integrated planning among command staff, subject matter experts, responders, private sector and nonprofit stakeholders. Prior to Strategic Sessions draft plans are complied using available research, existing best management practices, after-action reports, workshop notes, and required resource analysis from assessment or

13 decision tools. These initial drafts are reviewed by local EM staff, discipline specific workgroups, coalitions and associations. Participants within the session are asked to accept, adapt, reject or create plan language that will be operationally viable. Strategic sessions and the four step process – accept, adapt, reject and create, ensure horizontal and vertical integration.

Workshops: Both the planning workshops and the individual county planners providing direct technical assistance build off of each other, sharing the common framework established by the catastrophic scenario and projected consequences. These workshops provide a venue for discussing planning issues, allowing a range of emergency management personnel—including local, tribal, state, federal, volunteer, and private industry—to participate in the planning. The workshops are framed by the Hurricane Ono scenario. Since they are not exercises, but rather planning workshops, all of the information regarding the Hurricane Ono scenario and consequence projections is presented up front so the information is readily available for discussion and reference as needed. Participants at all levels of government help to solve the planning challenges presented by the scenario, and the operational knowledge and experience captured make the resulting plans more viable.

Seven major workshops have been held thus far:

← The November 2006 Phase 1 Kickoff Workshop in West Palm Beach, Florida, allowed representatives from each of the Lake Okeechobee counties to receive technical assistance that focused on direct HHD failure impacts and to list and prioritize actions for the development or enhancement of their county CEMP HHD annexes. ← The February 2007 Regional Planning Workshop in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida, joined the two phases of the FLCP Project with the introduction of the Hurricane Ono scenario. It focused on local capabilities and needs and initiated development of decision matrices. ← The April 2007 State Planning Workshop in Tallahassee, Florida, allowed participants to discuss state-level concerns from previous workshops and to identify state capabilities and needs and continued development of decision matrices. ← The June 2007 Regional Planning Workshop, hosted by the Miami-Dade Office of Emergency Management, revisited issues of local importance and provided an opportunity to refine decision matrices. ← The November 2007 State-Federal Integration Workshop focused on coordination across these levels of government in planning to address identified gaps and challenges. ← The June 2008 Regional Planning Workshop in Palm Harbor, FL, refined the vertically and horizontally integrated rough draft catastrophic plan pieces developed through working sessions and by Operational Workgroups during Winter/Sprint 2008. ← The November 2008 State-Federal Integration Workshop further identified and began to address gaps and challenges identified throughout the planning process.

14 Function and Discipline Specific Workgroups were developed to promote cross- jurisdictional (vertical) integration, cross-discipline (horizontal) integration and outcome driven planning. Designated workgroup leads coordinate stakeholder interaction/participation, identify workgroup objectives, provide subject matter expertise, and identify inter-discipline collaboration opportunities. Workgroups are comprised of local, state and federal partners to ensure that each plan defines appropriate outcomes, addresses discipline specific issues, and develops mature operational procedures. There are currently 15 workgroups:

Environmental Response Fire Rescue/USAR Host Communities Animal Issues Community Stabilization Logistics Disaster Housing Law Enforcement Health and Medical Public Information Debris Feeding and Sheltering Education Fuels Volunteers and Donations

Each FLCP Planner is assigned multiple workgroups to assist the state and federal leads as necessary. Since the start of 2009, Strategic Sessions have been held in Tallahassee and Atlanta. One more set of sessions are tentatively planned in order to continue the work on coordinate federal coordination points. In addition, some of the consequences, concepts, and plans developed with this project will be incorporated into the 2009 Florida Statewide Hurricane Exercise.

Instructor Note: Here is a summary of the Florida initiative if you are low on time. Slide 18 is still applicable.

The FEMA sponsored Florida Catastrophic Planning (FLCP) Initiative, which began in November 2006, considers two large-scale catastrophic incidents; a breach of the Herbert Hoover Dike (HHD) around the waters of Lake Okeechobee and a Category 5 hurricane impacting the entire South Florida peninsula, which has a population of nearly seven million.

This project includes data collection and comprehensive capability assessments of local, state, and federal resources to identify resource gaps, inconsistencies, and competing interests for limited resources. These issues are addressed by participants from multiple agencies and levels of government through operational workgroups and at planning workshops.

A planning and technical assistance team directly supports the FLCP Initiative. The FLCP team is responsible for coordinating a local-up planning approach built on a scenario-based required resource process. The FLCP planning process is driven by a planning scenario known as Hurricane Ono. This planning process promotes communication and builds stronger relationships among federal, state, local, and tribal agencies and non-governmental organizations that are critical in an effective unified response and recovery.

15 The Hurricane Ono Scenario: After a winter of drought conditions and a summer during which several lingering tropical depressions have saturated central and southern Florida, the level of Lake Okeechobee has reached eighteen feet. Hurricane Ono, a large Category 5 hurricane, makes landfall at 11 a.m. EDT on Monday, September 10, just north of Fort Lauderdale. The storm travels northwest across the state, maintaining Category 4 strength as it grazes the southwest reaches of Lake Okeechobee. The surge on the lake causes a breach of Reach 2 of the HHD in the vicinity of Clewiston. Tornadoes spawned by the hurricane also touch down on the dike, causing breaches in Reaches 1B and 1C near the towns of Pahokee and Belle Glade. Wind and flood control actions also cause the S80 structure on the St. Lucie Canal to fail. Ono continues across the state and, after spending 36 hours over land, exits into the Gulf of Mexico at Pinellas County. Once over the Gulf, Ono regains strength, turns north, and makes a second landfall as a Category 4 hurricane on the Gulf coast of Alabama, between Mobile and Pensacola, before deteriorating rapidly into a tropical storm.

Consequences: Preliminary models show that Ono would prompt an evacuation of nearly 3 million residents, put most of South Florida under 1–4+ feet of water for weeks, destroy the homes of more than 70 percent of the population, leave six million people without electricity; and cripple the state’s transportation infrastructure.

Workshops: Both the planning workshops and the individual county planners providing direct technical assistance build off of each other, sharing the common framework established by the catastrophic scenario and projected consequences. These workshops provide a venue for discussing planning issues, allowing a range of emergency management personnel—including local, tribal, state, federal, volunteer, and private industry—to participate in the planning. The workshops are framed by the Hurricane Ono scenario. Since they are not exercises, but rather planning workshops, all of the information regarding the Hurricane Ono scenario and consequence projections is presented up front so the information is readily available for discussion and reference as needed. Participants at all levels of government help to solve the planning challenges presented by the scenario, and the operational knowledge and experience captured make the resulting plans more viable. Seven major workshops have been held thus far. Facilitators coordinate stakeholder interaction/participation, identify workgroup objectives, provide subject matter expertise, and identify inter-discipline collaboration opportunities. Some of the consequences, concepts, and plans developed with this project will be incorporated into the 2009 Florida Statewide Hurricane Exercise.

Case Study #2: The New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) Catastrophic Earthquake Planning Project.

“What do we do if an earthquake hits the central United States tomorrow?”

This question was posed to eight states; Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee and four Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) regions IV, V, VI, and VII. Credible, worst-case earthquake scenarios using HAZUS earthquake modeling were developed, for each of the eight NMSZ states.

16 The initiative, known as the NMSZ Catastrophic Earthquake Disaster Response Planning Initiative, involves partnerships and collaboration with hundreds of government agencies; business, industry and voluntary organizations; and scientific and academic institutions. The NMSZ collaborative planning is designed to identify high risk areas, assess current disaster response capabilities, identify anticipated response shortfalls, and develop comprehensive planning strategies in the eight NMSZ States. The emphasis is on building local and state capabilities that are integrated with federal capabilities.

The initial phase of the initiative uses scenario-driven workshops in the NMSZ states and local level tabletop exercises. Workshop participants include operational and planning personnel from all levels of government and the private and academic sectors. The following participants have been involved in the NMSZ workshops in 8 states over 2007- 2009:

 259 undetermined  415 contract support  1070 local  792 state  330 federal  129 business  125 nonprofit

State and local participants include emergency services coordinators, emergency management staff, county emergency managers, state and local law enforcement, fire and emergency medical personnel, public works and public health personnel. FEMA Headquarters, four FEMA Regions, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM), the American Red Cross and more than 200 local governments are participating in the initiative.

FEMA embedded support planners in each of the four participating FEMA Regions and in each of the eight NMSZ states, to facilitate scenario-driven planning and identification of required resources based on a bottom-up, local approach.

Earthquake response capability assessments have been completed for each of the eight NMSZ states and published in the recently released report Impact of Earthquakes on the Central USA. The assessments provided the basis for the scenarios used in the planning workshops. The report outlines the findings of a study conducted in connection with a catastrophic earthquake planning initiative undertaken by the Mid-America Earthquake Center at the University of Illinois in partnership with FEMA; the USACE; the Central United States Earthquake Consortium (CUSEC); the USGS; and George Washington University's Institute for Crisis, Disaster and Risk Management. The study is available for download at mae.ce.uiuc.edu, click on the second small screen on the left or wait for and click on the headline "New Comprehensive Report on Earthquakes in the Central USA." (From http://www.fema.gov/news/newsrelease.fema?id=46854)

17 The state workshops are designed to gather information for revising the states' Catastrophic Event Annexes, developing Incident Action Plans for the first 72-hours following an event, and creating functional plans that can be executed soon after their development. While the states are responsible for establishing their own specific planning objectives, the overall goal is to establish a unified approach for responding that integrates the emergency management, private sector and critical infrastructure communities into a single, coordinated response structure that includes federal, state, local, tribal and other government entities, as well as the private sector. For example, in Illinois, there have been two state-level planning workshops involving about 60 state officials, as well as other participants. Topics included direction and control, search and rescue, communications, logistics and resource management, sheltering and mass care, damage assessment, transportation, and debris removal. Three local tabletop exercises in the state focused on communications, patient tracking, emergency medical, public health, transportation and resource management. Additional planning workshops are scheduled, including FEMA regional- and national-level workshops. A capstone workshop will involve the integration of all the plans developed through the scenario-based workshops. All participants were asked to develop detailed plans using the model as the base. The eight states conducted workshops using worst-case to identify gaps or shortfalls between the states’ capabilities and the amount of damages and losses. The gaps identified in the workshops will be used by FEMA and its partner agencies to develop supporting federal plans to meet the states’ shortfalls.

The largest earthquakes in history in the contiguous United States occurred along the NMSZ in the winter of 1811-1812. Moderate earthquakes have occurred several times in the past century in the Central United States, including a 5.2 quake on April 18, 2008, in the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone in southwestern Illinois, just northeast of the NMSZ area. A catastrophic earthquake event in the NMSZ, which runs from west of Memphis, Tenn., through southern Illinois, would physically impact a much larger area than would similar earthquakes elsewhere in the country. The reasons for this are the susceptibility of the NMSZ to soil liquefaction and the efficiency of the earth's crust in the Central and Eastern U.S. to transmit earthquake ground shaking. The NMSZ is a 150-mile-long fault system spanning four states. The NMSZ is bordered by two large urban areas, St. Louis, Missouri (1.5 to 2 million people) and Memphis, Tennessee (1 to 1.5 million people). Between these two metropolitan areas is a large rural area of approximately 8 to 9 million people. For the most part, construction in this large area did not have any anti-seismic building codes until recent years, making the built environment very vulnerable to earthquakes.This puts approximately 12 million people at risk.

For planning purposes, the states and regions used the following scenario scoring 7.7 on the Richter scale tested:

3,500 deaths and 82,500 injuries 715,000 buildings damaged 300,000 buildings completely destroyed 141 counties in 8 states with significant impact 87 hospitals moderately damaged and 3 completely damaged

18 1,540 schools moderately damaged and 117 completely damaged 23 EOCs moderately damaged and 1 completely damaged 377 police stations moderately damaged and 62 completely damaged 864 fire stations damaged and 62 completely damaged 79 potable water facilities damaged. 2,853 waste water facilities damaged. 637 electrical facilities damaged. 553 natural gas facilities damaged 7,265 oil facilities damaged 2,480,000 households without power on day 1. 2 million people need shelter by day 3 10,100 communications facilities damaged 139 airports damaged 168 dams damaged 103 levees damaged 3,550 highway bridges damaged 296 billion dollars direct economic loss 250 HAZMAT facilities damaged 50 million tons of debris 223 ports damaged

The strength of the CPP is:

 It is national in its orientation involving local, state, regional and federal organizations working together to develop plans that are integrated. This is the only program that integrates all levels of government in the planning process. All three levels of government are working together as plans are built and exercises and workshops are conducted. For example, state and federal organizations participate in the local workshops throughout the New Madrid Seismic Zone.  The result will be a national plan that is integrated and synchronized at all levels of government because all levels of government were building this together.  The planning activities are more concurrent versus sequential in nature. While this is a bottom-up planning program driven from the local level, in reality, all levels of government are planning together. States and federal partners are not waiting for the locals to finish their plans before starting. All levels are talking and sharing information in the process through workshops and exercises. This is very important for the unique and catastrophic events such as earthquakes where there is a lot of discovery work.  The bottom-up procedure encourages ownership of the plan by the individuals who develop it at the local level. By participating in this exercise individuals are able to apply regional planning activities to other events and other types of regional planning activities like mitigation.  The CPP is more realistic and detailed, enabling one to see more interdependencies.

19  The individuals involved in the CPP process are the actual operators, decision makers, and their staff who will respond to the disaster. They know their community.  The CPP requires local-level assessment, solution finding, and relationship building across a large multi-jurisdictional geographic area, thus decreasing reliance on state and federal resources in an actual catastrophe. This is consonant with the observation that local areas are likely to be isolated for a considerable period of time in catastrophes.  The local character of much of the planning is more likely to include non- governmental and private for-profit organizations, as well as the general citizenry, thus enhancing the potential for local solutions during times of isolation.  The process is designed to be on-going, not built around set-time high-visibility exercises.  Low-level politicians and decision-makers are more likely to participate than is the case of the ICP process, which focuses more on high-level decision makers.

Weaknesses of the Catastrophic Planning Program:

 The NMZS plans are focused on response operations. This is certainly a disadvantage in that recovery from a catastrophic earthquake is monumental. Lead designers intentionally limited this plan to response as they thought it would take a much focused approach to write plans at all levels of government for a disaster that impacts 8 states and 4 regions. CPP planners have always considered this would be a two phased approach with a New Madrid recovery plan following the response plan.  Is expensive  Is scenario and site-specific  It is more complicated, not as simple as planning using the all-hazard approach. It requires modeling, gap analysis, and damage estimates.  The CPP is a very time-consuming process, competing for time and planning resources against many other more pressing immediate needs.  The lack of a single response plan can be seen as confusing by some.  Some federal officials may feel uncomfortable with the lack of control that is inherent in a planning process that is more focused on local and regional resources and decision-makers.

The Northatlantic Hypercomplexity Approach Slide 23

A group of emergency management personnel in France, England and some other European countries noted in the early years of the current century that three related variables set aside catastrophes from other types of crises (Lagadec, 2007):

1) They are “hypercomplex” because of the extremely high degree of interdependent linkages in modern societies regarding the production and delivery of basic life- supporting services, such as food, water, electricity, natural gas, oil and communications.

20 Instructor Note: From an American perspective hypercomplex also applies to large and even medium size incidents. It does not have to be catastrophic to see these interdependent linkages. In our system of democracy there are so many different jurisdictions--both vertically and horizontally—that decision making is never found in one control center except for the smallest of small incidents.

2) Because of these hypercomplex linkages, the focus of decision-making cannot be limited to a single control center. 3) Because of the linkages, the effects of the event are greatly broadened to other jurisdictions, countries and continents, as well as to other aspects of human life, such as health, economics, and security.

For example, a major earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone may have the same causes as any other earthquake, but, because of the strategically interlinked character of that area of the United States, responses to the zone would have to come from many areas of the U.S., Canada, Mexico and perhaps even Europe. The delivery of much natural gas, oil, and gasoline to the U.S. East Coast may be stopped or severely restricted, and it would take months to get the delivery of these resources restored across the New Madrid- area routes. Other countries may be called upon to provide deliveries to the East Coast by tankers. Major failures would occur in the electrical grid, again affecting parts of the East Coast and Midwest and maybe even cause outages in the linked-in power supply system from Canada. Canada may be asked to help re-route and re-supply power to East Coast and upper Midwest population centers. Communications failures may severely interrupt commerce affecting many countries. The loss of barge traffic on the Mississippi River could lead to famine and social-political unrest in parts of the world that depend on grain shipments coming down the Mississippi from the U.S. and Canadian grain belts. This would require New Madrid-induced responses to countries like Bangladesh and Zimbabwe by organizations and countries far outside of the NMSZ.

This hypercomplexity thinking has now crossed the Atlantic and has become one of the activities of the Center for Transatlantic Relations, coordinated through the Johns Hopkins University School for Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and has resulted in several multinational meetings in Washington, involving researchers and emergency management practitioners from several European countries, as well as the U.S. and Canada. One of the practical outcomes of the hypercomplexity approach to visualizing preparedness and response to catastrophes has been the formation in several European countries of:

1) A system of “alignments” between governments, industries, and non-governmental organizations in the pre-event phase, which will facilitate easier collaboration and coordination when response is required, and; 2) The development of a new functional group within the response coordination structure, called a “rapid reflection force.” These groups are made up of representatives of responding agencies, industries, NGOs, politicians and scientists with responsibility to think through the potential consequences and potential networks affected by the crisis event, and, suggest on a real-time basis points where interventions may be effective. The

21 RRFs are not operational groups, but rather a sort of rapid response think tank with broader representation and roles than are found in typical American planning sections of the incident management system.

At its core, the hypercomplexity approach as discussed within the Center for Transatlantic Relations is based on the assumption that catastrophes cannot be managed, and that the best we can do is to recognize the complexity and use that recognition to help drive the most effective possible utilization of available resources. Because of this, it does not envision a single locus of control or coordination, but rather a more decentralized collaboration that is better able to assign resources and to trace causes and remedies through complex networks of multi-functional, multi-jurisdictional relationships. Some might say that it allows for a more “organic” response to complex events than can be achieved through a hierarchical control system. This entire approach to planning for and responding to catastrophes is still in the development process, but is evidenced by concrete actions being taken in several European countries.

Strengths of Northatlantic approach:

 The approach forces planners to recognize distant causes and effects of catastrophes, thus allowing response planning to take place in a much broader realm and improving the probability that out-of-area consequences will not come as surprises. Likewise, it encourages pre-event recognition that very distant actors may provide some of the most important resources in the response period.  The very term “hypercomplexity” is consonant with the sociological research that indicates that complexity is one of the key variables that differentiates catastrophes from disasters.  The hypercomplexity conceptual model mandates planning and coordination with a very broad array of non-governmental actors and organizations, thus significantly broadening the resources that can be brought to bear on the needs provoked by catastrophes.  The development of multi-institutional, multi-disciplinary “rapid reflection forces” adds to the ability of response operations planners to anticipate needs, actions required, and, importantly, reactions to specific response actions. This consideration of down-stream effects of disaster-response actions is otherwise difficult in time-stressed operations planning, and it has been oft noted that certain decisions made during the disaster response period can significantly increase the level of complication and difficulty in the following recovery period.

Weaknesses of Northatlantic approach:

 To date, this approach is not as much an operational model as it is a conceptual model aimed at helping the users of virtually any actual planning method to improve their outcomes.  The conceptual model is young and is still in the stages of development and refinement. As such, there are no guidebooks such as those offered by the CPG series from FEMA.

22  This model lacks, to date, specific benchmarks planners could use to document their progress in the planning process.

In summary, each of the three approaches being offered at this point in time is still under development, with outcomes unclear. It might be that none of them will survive intact, but each has some strengths and weaknesses, as well as characteristics that might make one of them more appropriate for a particular application (country, culture, political structure, hazard type, etc.). Yet, they all serve a clear purpose in trying to work within a complex catastrophe response planning environment.

The IPS system has a certain measure of reality to it. For planning purposes it has access to classified information essential to our current environment. The IPS system, with its federal orientation, is aware that when a serious catastrophe occurs, local and regional governments may not be able to respond. The federal government must be prepared to step in quickly to assist communities and states overwhelmed by low-probability and high-consequence events. The IPS represents the least departure from a traditional U.S. planning and preparedness framework, although it is distinct from the FEMA Community Planning Guide approach in that it is focused on a single major hazard type and involves multiple levels of government and jurisdiction types in the same planning process.

On the other hand, the CPP approach says, ”don’t count out the resilience, resources and ability of the local and state government and its partners”. The authors of this session who have significant combined experience in both practice and disaster research know that when people are aware of risks and know what to do, strength is built. The CPP approach is more of a departure from the traditional federal way of preparing for disasters. It too focuses on specific scenarios, but relies on a more ground-level effort of analyzing needs and finding solutions and less on building a structured single common plan. The “hypercomplexity” approach in discussion in several North Atlantic countries is, at this point in time (2009), more of a conceptual model of what needs to be considered in the planning and response process than an actual planning model. Some countries, such as France, have begun to implement some aspects of the hypercomplexity model in their planning, scenario testing, and actual response modalities, including such functions as the “rapid reflection forces.” This approach is interesting in that it focuses on systems and on intervening at key points during a response. However, it is in a theoretical stage and future work needs to connect it more to the decision makers on the ground.

All of these catastrophe-focused new planning models recognize the need to go beyond the traditional all-hazards planning that is based on single jurisdictions. The IPS model may be more appropriate in political and response systems that are highly structured around authority relationships, such as is often found in civil defense agencies. However, it is likely to miss valuable resources that lie outside of traditional authority relationships. The CPP approach is likely to be more comfortable in societies and political systems that operate on the basis of distributed power and decision-making, where the highest level authorities can trust that lower level jurisdictions can make appropriate decisions without central government input. The hypercomplexity model is, for the most part, not a

23 response model, and can be integrated into other actual planning and response approaches with some modifications to those approaches.

All three of these approaches present considerable challenge to current and future emergency managers. We look forward to seeing the graduates of this course take components of these models and develop more holistic and operational catastrophe- focused planning and response models.

The following table summarizes the three approaches we have learned about (e.g., IPS, CPP, and Northatlantic).

IPS CPP Northatlantic

Response time Unknown 72 hours Unknown Type of Responders Federal National All Broad Range Issues No Yes Yes Type of Approach Top down Bottom up Both Incident Control Centralized Both Decentralized Event Focus Terrorism Natural Natural Regional focus No Yes Yes

12.5 Politics and Power of Catastrophe Response Planning Slide 27:

Have you ever heard of the statement, “you cannot please everyone”? This emotion will inevitably rise during the planning procedure. The overall planning procedure often brings unlikely neighbors together for a common cause. The plans can go from simple to complex yet all of the parts work together as a whole. At the regional gatherings the objective is to share knowledge of risks, raise awareness of possible hazards and procedures, and to create cooperative relationships. With the top down planning, the objective is to have clear strategy for response including but not limited to command and control. In the midst of a future crisis that may devastate an entire region, plans often require a strong basis of credibility and trust in order to be implemented in a timely fashion. Every one needs to know what to do and to have some knowledge of the other key players in the effort.

But what happens when that credibility and trust are not there?

There are many sources of potential conflict. Conflicts with planning occur when some individuals who are not included at the table should be, when people are included for the wrong reasons, when there are conflicting motivations, when there is confusion about authority and responsibility, when communication breaks down, when people feel as though a plan is being forced upon them and ultimately when blame gets assigned to a wrong party. There is some degree of conflict or friction inherent among our three levels of government. This can work its way into planning. For example, the federal government is concerned about the most destructive scenarios while state and local

24 governments are generally more concerned about the most likely scenarios. Consequently, the federal government stresses planning activities for low-probability but high impact catastrophic events. State and local governments, while cognizant of the potential events, have limited time and resources for planning so they generally gravitate to the more likely events. Additionally, the federal government is interested in capability gaps at the state and local levels. Knowing gaps in medical, search and rescue, sheltering commodities, etc will help the federal government plan better. State and local governments are somewhat reluctant to reveal their gaps as it could be interpreted as not being capable or not taking all the measures they could to protect their constituents. The planning procedure is complex because every partner will have a different level of experience with disaster planning. For example, some individuals do not know that the federal government generally will not respond to a disaster unless asked by the state. Additionally, planning is not mandated so communities do not have to do it. Another complexity involves the resources available for planning. The difficulty of coalitions built of differing resource levels is that there can be insensitivity to issues like available time and funds. Some communities with in the region may be growing at different rates putting more pressure and urgency on some to plan faster than others.

Additionally, by using a bottom-up approach the CPP puts the center of gravity toward the local end of the local – state – federal continuum of emergency management--the locals are in charge and the states support the locals and the federal government supports the states. During actual disasters involving presidential declarations, when the federal government gets involved, the center of gravity for response operations shifts more toward the federal end of the continuum. This results in a planning process centered on the local level and a response process authority centered on the federal level. So, inevitably, there will be some disconnect between the plans for an incident and the actual response to it.

Planning is about protecting our most precious resources. Isolation puts us all at risk but working collaboratively builds our strengths. While planning, it pays to consider everyone a potential partner and to start the dialogue. Learn to respect differences. Conflict resolution in the planning process can take time but the investment will build stronger trust and commitments for the future. As Scott Wells one of the authors said, “it is not the plans but the planning that makes us stronger”. We hope you enjoyed this class session.

Class Discussion: Take this fictional community and discuss any potential planning conflicts and how they could be resolved. Feel free to add or delete any community characteristics.

A high hurricane risk county is asked to develop a catastrophe response plan by the state. The county:

 Is comprised of many new residents lacking in disaster experience  Does not have enough funds for an emergency manager  The top employers are a paper mill and oil company

25  The mayor of the county’s major city is very popular with the media but the county manager controls the budget  Has significant racial tensions  Has an active non-profit partner in the community that has not been involved with disaster planning  Has a university

Final Exam Options

Option # 1:

Have the class can compare and contrast the IPS approach with the catastrophic planning approach and the Transatlantic approach. Group A states why is IPS the best; Group B why is CPP is the best; and Group C why the Northatlantic is the best. Have them debate using the following terms:

Magnitude of the event Effect of prior disaster experience Operational tempo New decision making tools All hazards planning Scenario specific planning HAZUS Gap analysis Legislative requirements Bottom up Top down Terrorism centric Workshops Politics Inclusion NMZS Hurricane Ono Natural disaster Terrorism

Option #2: Give three groups the same event. Tell them to write a plan in 3 hours. Come back and see what 3 plans look like based on 3 different approaches. They must use the following terms in their discussions

Option #3: Divide the class into two groups. Group 1 is given an assignment to write a hasty plan of how a county would respond to a tornado that destroyed a subdivision in its largest town. Group 2 would have to write a hasty plan of how the county would respond to a category five hurricane that wiped out all power, killed 2,000 citizens, etc… The objective is for them to see that a catastrophic event has more complications than a

26 medium to large disaster. These complications would arise when trying to respond to the event. Each group then reports back to the full class.

Option #4:

Have the students ask the instructor 3 questions and then justify why those three questions are worthy. The instructor grades the response based on the depth and rationale of the questions.

27 References

Lagadec, E. (2007). Unconventional crisis, unconventional responses: Reforming leadership in the age of catastrophic crisis and hypercomplexity. Center for Transatlantic Relations. Washington, D.C.

Ruback, J.R., Landaiche, N.M., and Ruback, R.B. (2003). Regional collaboration in community-based disaster prevention: An emerging trend in pre-disaster mitigation. Unpublished report, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, D.C.

Wells, S. (2009). Value of Catastrophic New Madrid Planning Background Paper.

The Catastrophic Incident Annex. http://www.fema.gov/pdf/emergency/nrf/nrf_CatastrophicIncidentAnnex.pdf

Gap Analysis Program Guidance (2009). FEMA

HAZUS Information. (http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/index.shtm

Additional New Madrid Seismic Zone Information. www.fema.gov/news/newsrelaease.fema?id-46854 www.FloridaDisaster.org/CatastrophicPlanning

National Planning Scenarios http://www.fema.gov/txt/media/factsheets/2009/npd_natl_plan_scenario.txt

Preparedness: FEMA Has Made Progress, but Needs to Complete and Integrate Planning, Exercise, and Assessment Efforts http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-369