This Note Accompanies Workbook 6, People, and Provides High Level Commentary on What The

6. People

This note accompanies workbook 6, People, and provides high level commentary on what the information illustrates.

Qualifications West of England has a significantly higher proportion of its workforce qualified to degree level (NVQ4+) than any other Core City LEP (38.6%). As of 2012 the West of England LEP ranked 7th (excluding London) in terms of the proportion of its workforce qualified to degree level. Similarly, it has higher proportions of its workforce qualified to other skill levels and a lower proportion without any qualifications (7.9%).

This explains, at least in part the relative health of the local labour market, given that employment rates rise in response to the higher qualification levels. It also positions the West of England well to maximise the potential for economic growth, driven by high-skill, high-value employment and greater productivity in knowledge- intensive growth sectors

GCSE Attainment West of England GCSE attainment has been improving; it has not matched the recent improvement experienced across the whole of England. In 2009 and 2010, the West of England attainment was above the England average, it has fallen behind in 2011 and 2012.

The rate of improvement in Bristol has been in line with that for England, but, in 2011 & 2012 this has not been the case for the other three local authorities. Indeed, in 2012, BANES saw a decrease in attainment rate (from 64.2 to 57.5), although this may be a statistical blip.

This is an issue of some concern, implying that there may be a longer-term threat to the West of England’s competitive advantage of a higher-skilled workforce, unless this is bolstered by increasing graduate retention or attraction.

University Student Numbers Total student numbers (2011-2) in West of England were 73,295. 74% were undergraduates and 26% post-graduate. Of the undergraduates, just 10% were part-time, whereas the majority (57%) of post-graduate students are part-time.

Undergraduate Achievement Of the 12,150 undergraduates graduating in 2010/11 9.8% were in courses relating to creative arts & design; 9.9% in business and administrative services; and 8.2% in engineering and technology. All three of these correlate to LEP priority sectors. Forging strong linkages between HE and business is critical in retaining graduate talent, and ensuring that the courses on offer at the universities are suiting the needs of local business.

Destination of University Leavers (Graduate Retention) Between 2005/06 and 2007/08 the number of graduates working in the West of England 6 months after graduation steadily increased. The largest cohort of these graduates were incomers, these are graduates who are new to the area in order to take up employment. The second largest cohort was returners, those who moved out of the partnership area to study but returned to take up employment. This suggests that the needs of businesses are not necessarily being met by the local universities, rather there needs are being met by institutions elsewhere. However, more current data may show that this trend is being reversed.

More current data (2011/12) from the individual universities illustrates that the number of graduates working in the West of England after 6 months varies, ranging from 19% from the University of Bath and 42% from the University of West of England. The University of Bath and the University of Bristol both have a large number of graduates who go on to work in London.

Identifiable Mismatch of Skills The data indicates the variance between the skills (or occupation) of jobseekers and the vacancies offered by employers, using the Jobcentre Plus Jobseekers’ Allowance claimant and job matching databases.

The suggestion is that lower skilled occupations (sales, admin and elementary) have a significantly greater supply (JSA claimants) than demand (employer vacancies). Conversely, higher-skilled occupations, or those requiring formal qualifications (professional and associate professional) have more balance between supply and demand.

However, the data is somewhat confusing and it is challenging to be precise about the reality of the local labour market from this data alone

Index of Multiple Deprivation The West of England has deprivation ‘hot spots’ which are amongst some of the most deprived areas in the country, yet are adjacent to some of the least deprived areas of the country. The West of England has 46 LSOA’s in the most 20% deprived nationally for multiple deprivation, of which there are 41 LSOA’s in the most 10% deprived nationally.

LSOA’s falling within the most 20% deprived nationally are characterised by higher than average levels of unemployment and lower levels of educational attainment. Social and economic, as well as physical regeneration is therefore needed to meet the needs of individuals living within these LSOA’s and to support the West of England’s future high levels of projected growth.

All four authorities within the partnership area have pockets of deprivation with clear concentrations in parts of Bristol and Weston-super-Mare. Although each locality has different characteristics, the risk of increasing social exclusion in these areas comes from a combination of employment losses, relatively low skills and poor transport links. If these issues are left unaddressed the polarisation and disparities between rich and poor will worsen in the West of England, potentially having a larger fiscal impact over the long term than seeking to address them now.

Unemployment Rate (16-64) The number of working age unemployed people has increased in the West of England between 2008 – 2012. Although the West of England has a lower unemployment rate than the other Core City areas, the unemployment rate is higher than many other LEP areas with the LEP ranking 24th out of 39 LEPs in 2012(1 having the fewest unemployed 39 the highest).

In the West of England, females are slightly less likely to be unemployed than males; people from all minority ethnic groups, regardless of gender, are significantly more likely to be unemployed than their White British counterparts; and likewise, disabled people are more likely to be unemployed than non-disabled people.

Population Estimates: Revised Components of Change 2001 – 2011 Up until the recession hit in 2008 the largest component of population change in the West of England was net migration, however this has now been surpassed by natural change. There was a marked increase in inward International migration in 2004 following the incorporation of the Accession 8 Countries into the EU.

The number of births as a component of population change has steadily risen year on year, whereas the number of deaths has declined, resulting in a growing net increase through natural change.

Economic Activity Rates Confidence limits on this survey data mean that conclusions for areas as relatively small as West of England should be treated with caution. That said, it is clear that West of England has an economic activity rate significantly above that for the other Core City LEP areas and the UK as a whole. Over time, the economic activity rate for West of England has been consistently above that for the UK, although there is a possibility that the gap is beginning to close a little.

This indicates a more healthy local economy, with the prospect for a larger proportion of the resident population positioned to contribute towards and benefit from rises in prosperity. This prospect is enhanced when the economic activity rate is seen in conjunction with the relatively high proportion of the population being of working age.

Benefit Payments Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) data, covering welfare payments but not tax credits shows a total of £2,440.4 Million for the West of England in 2011/2. The main out-of-work benefits (JSA and ESA/IB) accounts for £198.7 Million. This is an increase of 111% from 2000-2001 (most of the increase is from 2006/7 to 2011/12 at 67%, while 2000/1 to 2006/7 was just 5%). This is compared with national changes in out-of work benefits which increased 71% from 2000/1 to 2011/12, (With the increase attributed 28% between 2000/1 to 2006/7 and 34% between 2006/7 to 2011/2). This suggests that West of England faired relatively less well following recession, as measured by the out-of- work benefit bill.