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Download The GREAT DECISIONS Winter 2018 Update Russia’s foreign policy • China and America • Turkey: a partner in crisis • U.S. global engagement and the military • South Africa’s fragile democracy Russia’s foreign policy n late January, the U.S. Treasury Department re- speech. He devoted one third of his speech to leased a list of individuals with close ties to the claims about upgraded nuclear missiles that could IRussian government. The Department published the overcome U.S. defense systems, and included vid- list in adherence to its legal obligations under sanc- eo clips as evidence. The speech was intended to tions legislation enacted in August 2017, known serve as a warning to the U.S., though many critics as the Countering America’s Adversaries Through conclude that the claims are more bombastic than Sanctions Act (CAATSA). CAATSA was passed substantial. Currently, Russia deploys some 1,400 in response to Russia’s interference in the 2016 strategic nuclear warheads and has thousands of presidential election and its military intervention in others in storage. Ukraine. However, the Treasury Department em- Much of this news was overshadowed by the phasized that its January list did not impose sanc- release in early February of the “Nunes memo,” tions on the individuals included. Russian President named for Chairman of the House Intelligence Vladimir Putin, who is running for re-election on Committee Devin Nunes (R-CA), who pushed for March 18th, called the release of the list an “un- its publication. The four-page Republican docu- friendly act,” but said that he would not retaliate. In ment accuses the Federal Bureau of Investigation response to the passage of CAATSA last July, Putin (FBI) of overstepping its authority in the investiga- ordered a steep reduction of U.S. employees—by as tion of Donald Trump’s campaign ties with Rus- many as 755—at the U.S. embassy in Moscow and sian officials during the 2016 election. Later the across U.S. consulates in the country. same month, the Intelligence Committee released Putin continues to push for increased global in- a heavily redacted Democratic memo, written by fluence, especially in the Middle East. He visited Representative Adam Schiff (D-CA), which push- Egypt, Turkey and Syria shortly after President es back on claims made in the Nunes memo. Donald Trump announced in December that the On February 16th, special counsel Robert Muel- U.S. would recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Is- ler, appointed by the Justice Department to lead rael—an announcement which caused upset among the investigation into Russian interference in the regional allies. In Cairo, Putin announced the re- 2016 presidential election, indicted 13 Russian na- sumption of Russian commercial airline service, tionals and three Russian entities for election med- which had been suspended after the bombing of a dling. “The defendants allegedly conducted what plane that killed 224 passengers in 2015. In Ankara, they called information warfare against the United the Russian president met with his Turkish counter- States, with the stated goal of spreading distrust to- part for the eighth time in 2017. Putin also travelled to Syria—his first visit since Russia entered into the Syrian Civil War in 2015. At the end of Janu- ary 2018, Putin hosted diplomatic negotiations over The UPDATES were written by Syria in the Russian Black Sea resort town of Sochi. Roshni Majumdar, editorial intern at FPA In March, Putin delivered his state of the union FOREIGN POLICY ASSOCIATION • 470 PARK AVENUE SOUTH • NEW YORK, NY 10016 PHONE: (212) 481-8100 • FAX: (212) 481-9275 • WWW.fpa.ORG wards the candidates and the political system in gen- navigates its exit from the European Union. In late eral,” said Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein January, British Prime Minister Theresa May led the about the indictments. UK’s largest-ever trade delegation to China to seek concessions on a range of issues from trade to finance. Recommended Readings Recommended Readings Brett Forrest, “In Cold War Echo, Russia Returns To Andrew J. Nathan, “The Chinese World Order,” The U.S.’s Backyard,” The Wall Street Journal (Jan. 31, New York Review of Books (Oct. 12, 2017). 2018). Evan Osnos, “Making China Great Again,” The New Ishaan Tharoor, “Putin is Outplaying Trump in the Yorker (Jan. 8, 2018). Middle East,” The Washington Post (Dec. 12, 2017). Kurt M. Campbell and Ely Ratner, “The China Reck- Julia Ioffe, “What Putin Really Wants,” The Atlantic oning,” Foreign Affairs (Mar. 2018). (Jan. 2018). China and America Turkey: a partner in crisis n January 20th, Turkey launched a direct incur- n February 25th, the Chinese Communist Party sion into the northern Syrian town of Afrin, in an announced its decision to lift term limits for the Oeffort against Syrian Kurdish forces there. The move Ocountry’s presidency and vice presidency, opening the potentially puts NATO allies the U.S. and Turkey in door for President Xi Jinping to remain in office in- direct conflict, as Syrian Kurdish forces have been the definitely. A two-term limit was enshrined in China’s U.S.’s primary partner on the ground in countering constitution in the 1980s to protect against a return to ISIS in the country. Turkey considers Syrian Kurds the type of one-man rule experienced under the dic- an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), tator Mao Zedong. The move represents an alarming a Kurdish group fighting for autonomy in Turkey, and disruption of political norms, but is largely a domestic therefore a terrorist organization. calculation rather than a matter of foreign policy strat- In the days preceding Turkey’s assault on Afrin, egy. U.S. President Donald Trump praised Xi’s power Secretary of State Rex Tillerson endorsed the creation grab during a fundraising event at his Mar-a-Lago es- of a permanent force of 30,000—about half to be af- tate, remarking “Maybe we’ll try that someday.” filiated with the Syrian Kurdish militia—along the Meanwhile, leaked photos from early 2018 reveal Syrian border. The force would be part of the U.S.’s China’s continued militarization of the South China broader strategy to prevent the resurgence of ISIS in Sea, where various regional countries maintain com- Syria. In response, Turkish President Recep Tayyip peting territorial claims. The new photos show the Erdoğan vowed to stop the U.S. from “creating a ter- construction of “island fortresses” concentrated in ror army on our border.” The U.S. says it will not sup- the disputed Spratly Islands. In March, a U.S. aircraft port Syrian Kurds in Afrin. Russia has also said it will carrier made a port call in Vietnam for the first time not interfere in the conflict. But the Turkish incursion since the end of the Vietnam War. The visit served as opens a new front in Syria’s brutal civil war, and has a warning to China against expansionism and militari- implications for Turkey’s orientation toward NATO zation of the Sea, where the U.S. sees protecting “free- and Eurasia. dom of navigation” as a vital national interest. On February 24th, the UN Security Council passed During a visit to Latin America in February, U.S. a resolution on a 30-day ceasefire to facilitate human- Secretary of State Rex Tillerson warned of China’s “predatory” advances in the region. China has rapidly overtaken the U.S. as the top trading partner of coun- The Great Decisions briefing book is published tries like Brazil, Peru and Chile. In January, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi invited the 33 members annually by the Foreign Policy Association. To order of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean a Great Decisions briefing book or to learn States to become part of China’s massive infrastruc- more about Great Decisions programs in your ture push known as the Belt and Road Initiative. community, visit On the other side of the hemisphere, Britain has also turned to China as a key trading partner as the UK www.greatdecisions.org GD 2018 UPDATE/WINTER 2 itarian assistance to civilians across Syria. The reso- fluence, thwart a potential resurgence of ISIS and oust lution allowed for continued combat against terrorist Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad (though Tillerson groups like ISIS. Turkey initially supported the reso- has in the past signaled a more tolerant stance toward lution, but, realizing that it applied to the conflict in Assad). As for the U.S.’s longest-running war, in Af- Afrin, went on to violate its terms. Russia, for its part, ghanistan, President Trump directed an increase in supports the resolution, but will not pressure Turkey to troops by 3,000 last year, bringing the total number to reverse its decision. approximately 14,000. In January, President Trump As part of his Middle East tour in February, Sec- cut off military aid to Pakistan in an effort to pressure retary of State Tillerson visited Turkey, where he met Islamabad to crack down on the Taliban along its bor- with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and der with Afghanistan. In Iraq, the U.S.-led coalition President Erdoğan. The meeting concluded with an has declared a “shift in focus” away from supporting agreement to normalize relations, which had become Iraqi combat operations following Iraq’s declaration increasingly strained over Syria and other issues. “Our of victory over ISIS in December. The number of relations were at a critical turning point,” said Foreign U.S. troops in Iraq, 5,200 last year, is set to gradually Minister Çavuşoğlu. “We were either going to correct decrease. this or it was going to take a turn for the worse.” The Trump administration continues to butt heads with North Korea in an effort to counter the isolated Recommended Readings nation’s nuclear arsenal.
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