INDUSTRY ANALYSIS Fiber Trends: What 2021 Promises For the Broadband Industry The 2021 broadband plans of incumbent telcos, independents, cable operators and electric co-ops will have a ripple effect on consumers and businesses. By Sean Buckley / Broadband Communities s the new year begins, BROADBAND the next decade if the telecom companies COMMUNITIES is asking industry successfully execute on their plans,” said Acolleagues what will drive the broadband Jonathan Chaplin, equity analyst for New industry in 2021. If anything is clear about the Street Research, in a research note. “This would past year, the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted take FTTH availability from 25 percent to that broadband has gone from being a luxury to a 35 percent of households – we assume growth necessity for remote learning and remote work. in occupied households of about 1 percent.” Key to that is a fiber-based symmetrical Render predicts that the potential number of connection. Whether service is from homes that could be passed by FTTH will be an incumbent telco, a cable company, a even larger when taking into account that a host municipality or an electric cooperative, fiber has of emerging players are building out service to a ripple effect: It gives consumers higher speeds more homes. “There are more than 1,000 other and can serve as an economic development tool providers in the United States alone – some to attract and retain businesses. small, some medium, some large – that add RVA LLC noted that as of 2020, more than up to more than 10 million,” Render said. 54 million U.S. homes have been passed with “Tier-3 telcos, private competitive providers fiber, growing 10 percent over the previous year. both large and small, municipal providers, rural FTTH passes 50.6 million unique homes in the electric telcos, and cable MSOs are building out United States. Mike Render, president of RVA some FTTH.” LLC, noted that growth declined slightly in 2020 because AT&T met the 14-million mark TIER-1 TELCOS ADVANCE THE as part of its DIRECTV acquisition. FIBER BALL “In 2020, deployments were down a bit AT&T, Verizon and Lumen because larger providers, particularly AT&T, (CenturyLink) – companies hit their targets for meeting their FCC that collectively account commitment and paused,” he said. for most U.S. FTTH Nevertheless, New Street Research forecasts deployments – will lead that fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) deployments by FTTH growth. the top eight largest providers will ramp up in AT&T’s FTTH 2021 and beyond (see Figure 3). strategy is paying off: It “We now think that [homes passed] could had 273,000 AT&T Fiber John Stephens increase by 20 million to 60 million over net adds in the fourth CFO, AT&T 22 | BROADBAND COMMUNITIES | www.broadbandcommunities.com | JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2021 Fiber Broadband Now Passes Nearly 54 Million U.S. Homes Lumen and Verizon continue to be RVA Provider Study 2020 active. Verizon is focused on touting 5G, but is still growing Fios, adding Homes Marketed Homes Connected 95,000 Fios internet subscribers in the 60 fourth quarter. 50 53.8 M Homes Marketed “Total Fios 40 10% Growth in 2020 internet net additions of 30 22.5 M Homes Connected 95,000 was the 20 best fourth quarter 10 we’ve had since 2014 and reflected 0 Sep '01 Sep '02 Sep '03 Sep '04 Sep '05 Sep '06 Sep '07 Sep '08 Sep '09 Sep '10 Sep '11 Sep '12 Sep' 13 Sep' 14 Sep' 15 Sep' 16 Sep' 17 Sep' 18 19 Sep' Sep' 20 strong demand for our gigabit Matt Ellis offering,” said CFO, Verizon Figure 1. RVA LLC reports that as of 2020, more than 54 million U.S. homes were passed with fiber, Matt Ellis, CFO of growing 10 percent over the previous year. Verizon, during the earnings call. New Street Research forecast that “Verizon will continue to grow fiber quarter and more than 1 million for starting this year, from $2 billion to homes passed by [more than] 400,000 the full year. John Stephens, CFO $4 billion. homes per year.” of AT&T, told investors during the John Stankey, CEO of AT&T, As it sheds low-speed DSL company’s fourth-quarter earnings call told investors during the fourth- customers, Lumen added 46,000 new 1 that FTTH penetration rates are rising. quarter earnings call that “we’ll be Gbps fiber Quantum Fiber broadband “We had our best AT&T Fiber building somewhere around 2 million subscribers in the third quarter. Though fiber residential locations in that fourth-quarter net adds, even with it lost a total of 75,000 broadband neighborhood.” more challenges associated with the subscribers – a factor related to losing Chaplin agreed that AT&T could 95,000 20 Mbps and below subscribers pandemic, and penetration continues to ramp up deployments if it gets a and 42,000 20–99 Mbps subscribers – grow,” he said. “It’s now at 34 percent.” desired payback. He said that AT&T is it gained 62,000 100 Mbps subscribers. JPMorgan said in a report that to committed to 1 million a year but may “We win maintain growth, AT&T needs to accelerate in 2022 if it gets the returns double its fiber footprint over the next it hopes for in the markets where it has customers where five years by increasing fiber spending, deployed. we invest in fiber, simplify the experience and use micro-targeting in Diverse Types Of Fiber Providers Are Adding To The Total selecting the areas U.S. Cumulative Homes-Marketed By Provider Types we serve,” said Jeff RVA Provider Study 2020 Storey, CEO of Jeff Storey Lumen, during CEO, Lumen Tel - ILEC Tier 1 67.0% its third quarter Tel - ILEC Tier 2 & 3 12.2% earnings call. Private Competitive 8.5% Chaplin said, “We assume Lumen MSO/ Cable 7.9% will expand sales within the 10 new markets it is targeting, which contain Municipality/ PUD 3.4% about 10 million homes.” Rural electric 1.0% TIER-2, TIER-3 TELCOS 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% TYPE 2020 GROWTH DRIVERS STEP UP Rural Electric Very high Serving customers, Grid network operations, Protecting business, Subsidy Tel - ILEC Tier 2 & 3 High Finishing build, Serving customers, Protecting business, Subsidy Though not building at the same scale MSO/Cable Medium Overbuild (Altice and smaller players), Greenfields, Offloading heavy users as Tier-1 and rural and regional telcos, Private Competitive Medium Protect business (Wisps), Financial opportunity, Pushing industry (Google) Municipality/PUD/ Related Utility Medium Economic development and retention/ Smart City/ 5G wireless internet service providers Tel - ILEC Tier 1 Low/ Planning more Now clear that fiber protects the core business (WISPs) and electric cooperatives Figure 2. Tier-1 telcos (AT&T, Verizon, Frontier and Lumen) account for 67 percent of the FTTH build, are driving FTTH growth in less but Tier-2 and Tier-3 telcos have been very strong and added to the total FTTH market reach. populated markets. JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2021 | www.broadbandcommunities.com | BROADBAND COMMUNITIES | 23 INDUSTRY ANALYSIS Verizon and AT&T reportedly account for Consolidated Communications, during the third-quarter earnings call. more than 30 million of the homes passed by Another Tier-2 telco ramping up FTTH is Frontier. As it moves through fiber; however, there are more than 8 million the Chapter 11 restructuring process, homes passed by smaller, mostly rural Frontier hatched a 60,000-home pilot FTTH plan. telecom companies. As part of its 2021 FTTH reinvestment initiative, Frontier has begun engineering for brownfield FTTH builds, which will upgrade Render said that diverse types territories. These Tier-2 providers will its existing copper network in of fiber providers are adding to the be joined by a host of Tier-3 telcos, select regions. total FTTH market reach. “While 67 municipalities and electric cooperatives. Frontier also is eligible to get more percent of the FTTH build has been “The eight largest FTTH providers than $370 million of FCC Rural Tier-1 telcos – AT&T, Verizon, Frontier will pass least another 20 million Digital Opportunity Fund (RDOF) funding over 10 years across California, and Lumen – Tier-2 and Tier-3 telcos homes over the course of the next Florida, Texas, Connecticut, West have been very strong,” he said. decade.” Chaplin said. “Most of the Virginia, Illinois, New York and Chaplin agreed about Tier-2 and incremental build will come from the Pennsylvania. Through its self-funding Tier-3 rural carriers’ role. smaller telcos, including Consolidated, modernization plan, Frontier has a “Verizon and AT&T account for Frontier, Lumen, TDS and others.” long-term target (within 10 years) to more than 30 million of the homes Consolidated set an aggressive pass more than 2.9 million homes passed by fiber; however, there are FTTH plan for northern New England with fiber. more than 8 million homes passed and other regions, leveraging its own Bernie Han, Frontier’s outgoing by smaller, mostly rural telecom capital and a $425 million investment president and CEO, said during companies that we tend to overlook,” from Searchlight Capital Partners. It the third-quarter earnings call that Chaplin said. “Roughly half of the plans to extend fiber services to 1.4 the FTTH service is attracting homes passed by smaller carriers were million consumers and small businesses. new subscribers. deployed by them, while the other half “We are embarking on a multiyear “While we are converting existing were built by Verizon as part of the investment initiative [in which] we copper customers to fiber, most of our initial Fios project and sold to them.” will upgrade [more than] 1 million early gains are coming from winning Consolidated Communications, addressable homes with fiber, enabling new customers,” Han said.