This Course Requires the Purchase of a Course Packet: YES NO

MGT 341 / B 5005 Managing Decision Models Spring I 2008 INSTRUCTOR: W. Fanizzo

PHONE: 312.540.9671

EMAIL: [email protected]

REQUIRED TEXTS:

Title Practical Business Statistics Author(s) Siegel, A. Copyright (2003) Publisher McGraw-Hill ISBN 9780072821253 Edition 5th

This Course Requires the Purchase of a Course Packet: YES NO

Argosy University COURSE SYLLABUS MGT341 / B5005 Managing Decision Models

Faculty Information Faculty Name: W. Fanizzo Campus: Chicago Contact Information Email: [email protected] Telephone: 312.540.9671 Office Hours: 9-5

Short Faculty Bio: William Fanizzo is a principal in Advantage Business Solutions Inc., which is an industrial staffing brokerage company that specializes in permanent placement as well as temporary placement personnel. This is a new venture for him (6 yrs) and unique to the industry. Prior to the staffing company Mr. Fanizzo was a founding partner and General Manager in Contract Food Management, Inc (CFM) for 16 years, after which he negotiated the sale of the business to a competitor. CFM was a Foodservice Management Company that provided management services to restaurants, colleges, and employee cafeterias for third parties.

Mr. Fanizzo has been involved in other entrepreneurial efforts in the Minneapolis/St. Paul area where he formed an S-corporation and sold shares of stock in a start-up restaurant and purchased an ongoing business from a retiring couple. He received much of his training from ARAMARK and Canteen Corporation where he managed several public restaurants and numerous academic and industrial facilities. During this time he developed his skills in cost control and management.

Mr. Fanizzo has taught Food Preparation at Purdue University. He has served on the scholarship selection panel for the National Restaurant Association, as well as on academic advisory boards in Minnesota and Indiana. He has been a consultant to various companies; most recently a retirement home and a manufacturing company, both located in the northern suburbs of Chicago. He has been a consultant to Enterprises for the Blind for the State of Minnesota. Mr. Fanizzo received his MBA from Lake Forest Graduate School of Management 2002 and his Bachelor of Science degree from Southern Illinois University 1969. He is currently pursuing the DBA, Doctorate of Business Administration, degree in Management at Argosy University.

Course description: Problem analysis and evaluation techniques are presented. Students are shown methods for defining, researching, analyzing, and evaluating a problem they would solve in their work or vocational environment. Specific statistical information covered in the course includes identifying and measuring objectives, formulating hypotheses, collecting data, working with levels of significance, analyzing variance, and constructing questionnaires.

Course Pre-requisites: None

Required Textbook:

Siegel, A. (2003). Practical Business Statistics. (5th Ed.). McGraw-Hill. ISBN 13: 9780072821253

Technology: Pentium III CPU/ Windows 98; 128MB RAM printer; Microsoft Office; Adobe Acrobat Reader (full version); Microsoft Internet Explorer 5.5 (PC) 5.0 (MAC) or Netscape Navigator 4.08; Norton Antivirus.

Course length: 7.5 Weeks

Contact Hours: 45 Hours

Credit Value: 3.0

Program Outcomes:

1. Communication 1.1 Communicate business concepts effectively, both written and orally appropriate to the audience 2. Team 2.1 Define the attributes of an effective team member and leader and the characteristics of an effective team in reaching specific business goals 3. Cognitive 3.1 Problem Solving – Given a business problem, select and defend a business solution chosen from specific alternatives 3.2 Information Literacy – Given a business research question, access information from a variety of sources, select appropriate sources to respond to a business question 4. Analysis/Application 4.1 Integration – Describe the interrelationship of the functional business areas of statistics, accounting, operations, finance, marketing, and strategy 5. Ethics/Diversity 5.1 Diversity – Identify the issues and challenges related to diversity in current business organizations 5.2 Ethics – Identify the issues and challenges related to ethics in current business organizations

Course Objectives:

1. Structure problems to prepare for decision analysis. (Program Outcome(s): 1, & 4) 1.1. Calculate conditional and joint probabilities. 1.2. Calculate z scores. 1.3. Use Excel with Stat Pad to enter data, create charts, and calculate summary statistics and probabilities. 1.4. Construct a confidence interval for a mean. 1.5. Describe the hypothesis testing procedure. 1.6. Identify whether a one-tailed and a two-tailed test are appropriate. 1.7. Relate the business objectives to statistical quality control. 2. Develop and refine data gathering skills and techniques (Program Outcome(s): 1, & 4) 2.1. Organize data into a frequency distribution, and represent it graphically. 2.2. Explain the relationship between populations and samples. 2.3. Construct control charts. 3. Be able to systematically analyze a business issue by (a) identifying the problem, (b) gathering, compiling and organizing data, (c) recommending solutions, and (d) determining success measures and objectives (Program Outcome(s): 1, 3.1, 3.2, & 4) 3.1. Select the appropriate functions in Stat Pad to solve basic statistical problems. 3.2. Apply the hypothesis testing procedure to one or two sets of data. 3.3. Find the appropriate balance between Type I and Type II errors. 3.4. Distinguish between statistical and causal relationships. 3.5. Calculate the least squares regression line. 3.6. Use statistics to monitor and improve quality. 4. Recognize problem resolution skills through the application of systems thinking and creative/innovative methodologies (Program Outcome(s): 1, & 4) 4.1. Find the relevance of inferential statistics to business decision-making. 4.2. Calculate the measures of central tendency and dispersion for a set of data. 4.3. Construct a sampling distribution of the sample mean. 4.4. Use the Central Limit Theorem to make estimates. 4.5. Identify the weakness of point estimates. 4.6. Use confidence intervals to augment point estimates. 4.7. Determine the appropriate sample sizes. 4.8. Identify dependent and independent variables. 4.9. Use linear regression to make predictions, and assess the likely accuracy of predictions.

Assignment Table Note: All Module Assignments are due at the beginning of class that week (Module 1 due first class, Module 2, second class, etc.) B5005 will also have a term project and presentation due in Module 8 (to be assigned)

Module Module Topics Readings Assignments 1  Introduction to Business Statistics Supplemental Discussion Questions: Post your answer in this week’s Module Discussion o Role of Statistics in Sigel Question 1, and respond to at least two other classmates. Business Decision- Chapter 1 Making Chapter 2 1. The only way to summarize a set of data is by calculating a measure of Chapter 3 central tendency and variability. Do you agree with this statement? Chapter 4 Explain your reasoning using at least two examples.  Data Sets Chapter 5 o Collecting and Assignments: (Hand in) Understanding Data o Quantitative and 1. Investment Opportunities Qualitative Variables You are a sales manager with Jones Finance — a company of investment advisors. You have to give a presentation to clients next week about the  Describing Data investment opportunities in the fast-food industry. As part of the presentation you want to show the clients how different companies o Graphical compare with respect to the number of employees and the returns to Representation of Data investors. Using the data provided, represent graphically the data for o Normal Distribution investor returns and the number of employees on two separate charts. On a

third chart represent the relationship between investor returns and the  Summarizing Data number of employees. o Central Tendency a. Does the chart show a strong relationship between investor returns and o Variability the number of employees? Is there more variation among the investor returns than among the number of employees? Why, or why not? b. Design your charts in PowerPoint. Support your chart with a two-page summary in a Word document, explaining how you reached the conclusion. You may use bullet points in your summary, but they should be complete sentences. Use headings and captions appropriately. Also use bold for emphasis.

Present your findings to the Class.

week 1 DA1.xls

2. Department Store Data Categorization You are a marketing executive of a department store. The marketing manager of the store is required to conduct training on how to collect qualitative and quantitative data. As part of the training material the marketing manager wants to provide the trainees with a handout on examples of qualitative and quantitative data. a. You have at your disposal the following information: b. The names of products c. A description of the products d. The productivity of employees e. Health-related information for each employee f. The names of the product’s distributors g. The distributors’ phone numbers and other contact details h. The universal product codes i. A store’s stock keeping unit numbers j. The number of units in the inventory at any time k. The change in the price of each product over a year l. The current price of the products m. The number of units of products sold each year for the past two years n. The names of various departments

Prepare a two-page handout for the marketing manager segregating the above list into qualitative and quantitative data. Provide a rationale for your response.

Prepare your handout in a Microsoft Word document.

Guidelines on Creating a Handout.doc

Module  Introduction to Probability Supplemental Discussion Questions: Post your answer in this week’s Module Discussion

2 o Measuring Uncertainty Siegel Question 1, and respond to at least two other classmates. and Randomness Chapter 6  Single and Multiple Events Chapter 7 1. Discuss the relationship between conditional probabilities and statistical  Mutual Exclusivity and Statistical independence. Illustrate your discussion with examples of two events that Independence are statistically independent and two events that are not statistically  Binomial and Normal Distributions independent.

Assignments: (Hand in)

1. Defective Product Analysis You are a sales manager with Ecom, Inc. The (VP) of your organization wants to prepare a plan to reduce the number of defective products sold to clients. The VP asks you to investigate whether the proportion of defective products shipped to clients depends on: a. The client being domestic or overseas. b. The distributor being Smith, Jones, or Davis. c. A combination of a and b.

Using the data provided prepare a one-page report in a Word document addressed to the VP, detailing your analysis and conclusion. Your report should clearly show the method you employed to arrive at the answer. You may also use diagrams, charts, and other visual aids to make your report more effective.

Refer to the following Web site for guidelines on how to draft a report:

http://www.learningservices.gcal.ac.uk/els/reports/

week 2 DA1.xls

2. Risk Analysis

You are a risk analyst at Max Inc., which operates 15 manufacturing plants Module in the United States. Industry experts predict that the next year will be a 2 bad one for your industry and 70 percent of the manufacturing plants like yours in the United States will operate at a loss.

The COO of your company has to provide an assessment of this prediction in the next monthly shareholders’ meeting. To help her in this assessment she asks you to determine the probability that 12 or more of your 15 manufacturing plants will incur losses next year.

Provide your response to the COO in the form of a two-page e-mail note in a Word document. Explain how you arrived at your answer, and state any assumptions you made.

3. B5005 Students: Prepare a list of three possible projects utilizing statistical analysis relating to the company where you work. Module  Introduction to Excel Read “The Excel Discussion Questions: Post your answer in this week's Module Discussion 3  Excel Functions Guide.” Question 1, and respond to at least two other classmates.  Installing Stat Pad  Stat Pad Functions 1. Discuss three reasons why Stat Pad may not produce the desired results to the problems? In each case identify a preventative measure that will minimize the chances of getting inappropriate results.

1. Stat Pad Basic Functions Repeat the doable assignments of Weeks 1 and 2, using the functions of Stat Pad.

2. Excel, with or without the additional functions of Stat Pad, can be used for both descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. Do you agree with this statement? Rationalize your position by providing at least two examples from your day-to-day life.

3. You have entered data in Excel and used an Excel function to produce the result 45.528 in cell C32. Now you want to use this result in a formula in cell F45. Why is it not a good idea to type “45.528” in the formula in cell F45? What are some of the alternative ways to incorporate the result— 45.528—into the formula in cell F45? Which is the best alternative? Why? Module  Populations and Samples Supplemental Discussion Questions: Post your answer in this week's Module Discussion

4  Parameters and Statistics Siegel Question 1, and respond to at least two other classmates.  Sampling Chapter 8  Random Sampling  Statistical Inference 1. You are the general manager of a department store. One hundred randomly  Central Limit Theorem chosen customers have rated on a scale of 1 to 10 their level of satisfaction o Standard Error with the goods purchased from your store. What can you infer about the level of satisfaction of all your customers from the results of the survey? Identify the three limitations to such inferences. In the light of those limitations explain the importance of the Central Limit Theorem in making inferences about the population of all your customers.

1. Inflation Estimates You work as a data analyst with ABL MAX Company. To make a forecast of its financial performance, your company uses an estimate of inflation, which is based on the estimates of 57 economists. These estimates, shown in the attached Excel document, are expensive to obtain.

In order to reduce the expense of obtaining data, the CEO of your company asks you to analyze the effect on the estimate of inflation if only 20 estimates are obtained. For your analyses: a. Calculate the mean and standard deviation of the 57 estimates. b. Take a random sample of 20 estimates, and calculate the mean of the 20 estimates. c. Repeat (b) 10 more times. d. Take the mean values arrived at in (b) and (c), and calculate their mean and standard deviation.

Based on the analyses prepare a two-page handout in a Word document addressed to the CEO, containing an answer to the following: a. What values did you expect to obtain in d? b. What is the effect of using only 20 estimates as against 57 estimates? week 4 DA1.xls

Module 2. Predicting Consumer Behavior (Class Discussion)

4 You work as a statistician in Reedley Company. Your company is planning to introduce a new product that will compete directly with a well- known existing product made by another company.

You have conducted a survey to find out prospective customers for the new product.

The survey shows that 23 percent of people who buy the existing product would switch to the new product, assuming its price and quality are similar to the existing product and it is widely available. You have to present your findings of the survey in the quarterly meeting of all managers.

a. Six reasons—apart from price, quality, and availability—why the percentage of customers who will switch from the existing product may be more or less than 23 percent. b. By how much it is likely to be more or less.

Module  Confidence Levels Supplemental Discussion Questions: Post your answer in this week's Module Discussion 5  Confidence Intervals Siegel Question 1, and respond to at least two other classmates. o Confidence Interval Chapter 9 for the Mean 1. Compare and contrast the procedures for estimating the population  Hypothesis Testing parameters from the statistics of a sample and the sample statistics from the parameters of a population. Illustrate your answer by providing two examples of each procedure.

1. Royal Charted Bank You are a bank manager with Royal Chartered Bank. The bank you work for is going to open a new branch in a city that is growing rapidly. The bank has to decide which products and services to offer from the new branch. For example it can offer home equity loans. Based on the past data the bank knows that the demand for its various products depends on the income levels of its prospective customers. The bank conducts a random survey of the salaries of the local people in the city that has the new branch. You have to present your findings of the survey in the weekly staff meeting.

Using the data provided estimate the mean annual salary in the community, and construct a 95 percent confidence interval for the mean

annual salary. Present your findings in a two-page report.

week 5 DA1.xls ` 2.Copier Paper Specifications (Class Discussion) You are a quality analyst with John and Sons Company. Your company manufactures fax machines, copiers, and printers that use plain paper. The CEO of the company wants the machines to handle 99.5 percent of all the paper that is used in them without the paper getting jammed. The CEO asks you to determine the thickness of paper that the machines must be able to handle to achieve this target. Using the data provided prepare a week 5 DA2.xls two-page memo to the CEO in a Word document, detailing the appropriate confidence limits for the thickness of paper that the machines must be able to handle. Module  Hypothesis Testing for One Mean Siegel Discussion Questions: Post your answer in this week's Module Discussion 6  Hypothesis Testing for Two Chapter 10 Question 1, and respond to at least two other classmates. Independent Samples  Hypothesis Testing for Two Dependent Samples 1. A Type I error is like finding an innocent defendant guilty, and a Type II error is like finding a guilty defendant not guilty. Do you agree? Explain your answer with the help of at least three examples.

1. Police Officers’ Salaries You are a city manager whose responsibilities include negotiating an employment contract with 71 police officers. The data provided includes the current salaries of these police officers.

The officers and you agree that the average annual salary of a police officer in comparable towns and cities is $46,000.

A newspaper recently published a report stating the salaries of these 71 police officers and that the police officers in your town were underpaid as compared to police officers in similar towns and cities. The newspaper approaches you to seek your response on the report.

Draft a one-to-two-page letter addressed to the editor of the newspaper, outlining whether the current salaries of the police officers prove that they are underpaid as compared to police officers in other towns and cities.

Draft your letter in a Word document, and submit it.

week 6 DA1.xls

2. Equal pay for men and women (Class Discussion) You are an HR manager with Edom, Inc. The company has 71 middle managers all of who do comparable work. Their salaries are provided in the data given. Some female middle managers claim that they are week 6 DA2.xls unjustifiably paid less than men. The COO of your company has asked you to investigate their claim. You have decided to find out first if it is true that female middle managers are paid less than their male counterparts.

Does the data support the conclusion at a one percent significance level?

Prepare a one-page evaluation report in a Word document to be delivered to the COO, detailing your conclusion. In your report explain how you reached the conclusion.

Module  Introduction to Regression Siegel Discussion Questions: Post your answer in this week's Module Discussion 7 o Simple Linear Chapter 11 Question 1, and respond to at least two other classmates. Regression o Least Squares

 Prediction 1. The independent and dependent variables correspond to cause and effect. Do you agree with this statement? Why or why not? Explain your answer using at least two examples.

 Correlation Between Two Variables Given two variables how will you decide which is the dependent variable and which is the independent variable? Provide a rationale for your response.

1. Appetizer restaurant plan You are a manager with Appetizer. The company owns a chain of restaurants in the United States. Appetizer is looking for an opportunity to expand. As part of a market analysis, you have to send a two-page handout week 7 DA1.xls in a Word document to the COO of the company, exploring the relationship between the expenditure by people on purchasing food from stores and their expenditure in restaurants. Using the data provided: a. Calculate the least squares regression line taking restaurant expenditure as the independent variable. b. Calculate a point estimate and a confidence interval for the food store expenditure by people in a state whose restaurant expenditure is $5 billion. c. Support your handout with a two-page summary, recommending in which areas Appetizer should open its new restaurant. Create your summary in a Word document. You may use bullet points in your summary.

2. Web visitor analysis (Class Discussion) You are a member of a team that is redesigning a Web site. In order to Module determine the optimum size of the Web site, you have been asked to find 7 out whether the size of the Web site, which is measured by the number of pages, the number of visits to the Web site, and the duration for which a user uses the Web site are associated with one another. a. Using the data provided develop a linear regression model for each pair of variables. b. Present your response to your team members in the form of a two- page e-mail note. In your e-mail also indicate: i) In each case how much of the variation in the dependent variable is explained by the independent variable. week 7 DA2.xls ii) Which pair of variables has the most significant linear relationship?

You should also state the significance of that relationship, how you arrived at your conclusions, and the possible causes of the statistical relationship between the amounts spent by shoppers and how busy the store is. Support your

Module  Introduction to Statistical Process Siegel Discussion Questions: Discussion Questions: Post your answer in this week's 8 Control (SPC) Variation Chapter 18 Module Discussion Question 1, and respond to at least two other classmates. o Causes o Management 1. Both objective and subjective criteria should be used to determine whether a process is in control. Do you agree or disagree? Explain your answer  Control Charts using at least three examples from your day-to-day life.

Module 8 Assignments: (Hand in)

1. Controlling a manufacturing process You are a quality analyst responsible for controlling the thickness of a protective coating applied in a manufacturing process. The VP of your organization wants to know how this process can be controlled. Use the data provided for your analysis.

To begin your analysis: a. Calculate the average for all samples and the average range. b. Calculate the center line and control limits for the X-bar chart.

Present your findings to the VP in a two-page memo. Your memo should include your recommendations to control the manufacturing process. Provide a rationale for your recommendations.

week 8 DA1.xls

B5005 Project Presentations (to be assigned)

Grading Criteria

Grading Scale Grading requirements

A 100 – 93 Participation, class 10% Weekly Assignments 45% A- 92 – 90 Final paper 35% B+ 89 – 88 Participation, On-Line 10% B 87 – 83 B- 82 – 80 100% C+ 79 – 78 C 77 – 73 C- 72 – 70 D+ 69 – 68 D 67 – 63 D- 62 – 60 F 59 and below

Library:

All resources in Argosy University’s online collection are available through the Internet. The campus librarian will provide students with links, user IDs, and passwords.

Library Resources: Argosy University’s core online collection features nearly 21,000 full-text journals and 23,000 electronic books and other content covering all academic subject areas including Business & Economics, Career & General Education, Computers, Engineering & Applied Science, Humanities, Science, Medicine & Allied Health, and Social & Behavior Sciences. Many titles are directly accessible through the Online Public Access Catalog at http://library.argosy.edu. Detailed descriptions of online resources are located at http://library.argosy.edu/misc/onlinedblist.html.

In addition to online resources, Argosy University’s onsite collections contain a wealth of subject-specific research materials searchable in the Online Public Access Catalog. Catalog searching is easily limited to individual campus collections. Alternatively, students can search combined collections of all Argosy University Libraries. Students are encouraged to seek research and reference assistance from campus librarians.

Information Literacy: Argosy University’s Information Literacy Tutorial was developed to teach students fundamental and transferable research skills. The tutorial consists of five modules where students learn to select sources appropriate for academic-level research, search periodical indexes and search engines, and evaluate and cite information. In the tutorial, students study concepts and practice them through interactions. At the conclusion of each module, they can test their comprehension and receive immediate feedback. Each module takes less than 20 minutes to complete. Please view the tutorial at http://library.argosy.edu/infolit/

Academic Policies

Academic Dishonesty/Plagiarism: In an effort to foster a spirit of honesty and integrity during the learning process, Argosy University requires that the submission of all course assignments represent the original work produced by that student. All sources must be documented through normal scholarly references/citations and all work must be submitted using the Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association, 5th Edition (2001). Washington DC: American Psychological Association (APA) format. Please refer to Appendix A in the Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association, 5th Edition for thesis and paper format. Students are encouraged to purchase this manual (required in some courses) and become familiar with its content as well as consult the Argosy University catalog for further information regarding academic dishonesty and plagiarism.

Scholarly writing: The faculty at Argosy University is dedicated to providing a learning environment that supports scholarly and ethical writing, free from academic dishonesty and plagiarism. This includes the proper and appropriate referencing of all sources. You may be asked to submit your course assignments through “Turnitin,” (www.turnitin.com), an online resource established to help educators develop writing/research skills and detect potential cases of academic dishonesty. Turnitin compares submitted papers to billions of pages of content and provides a comparison report to your instructor. This comparison detects papers that share common information and duplicative language.

Americans with Disabilities Act Policy

It is the policy of Argosy University to make reasonable accommodations for qualified students with disabilities, in accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA). If a student with disabilities needs accommodations, the student must notify the Director of Student Services. Procedures for documenting student disability and the development of reasonable accommodations will be provided to the student upon request.

Students will be notified by the Director of Student Services when each request for accommodation is approved or denied in writing via a designated form. To receive accommodation in class, it is the student’s responsibility to present the form (at his or her discretion) to the instructor. In an effort to protect student privacy, the Department of Student Services will not discuss the accommodation needs of any student with instructors. Faculty may not make accommodations for individuals who have not been approved in this manner.

The Argosy University Statement Regarding Diversity

Argosy University prepares students to serve populations with diverse social, ethnic, economic, and educational experiences. Both the academic and training curricula are designed to provide an environment in which students can develop the skills and attitudes essential to working with people from a wide range of backgrounds.