The Wat er Agency , Inc. Water Supply Update

CVP Storage: North of Delta Storage not moved to San Luis Res. The chart to the right was presented to the San Luis and Delta Mendota Water Authority board of directors meeting by its water engineer Tom Boardman. It shows just how out of whack and impactful for the water users the National Marine Fisheries Agency ESA actions have been. is not only at critical levels, but USBR has a huge amount of water it will need to pump just to payback water it has “borrowed” to meet allocations this year. Much of the borrowing of water was done without asking the owners of the water if that was ok. There is probably a different word that describes that action . . . .

San Luis Reservoir Not Expected to Refill This Year Thankfully, Federal CVP Jones plant pumping has been up, but with only one to two units. Three units probably won’t start until mid-August. Even so, as seen in the projections below, Tom Boardman’s chart shows that San Luis is not expected to refill this year as previously thought based upon the 118 percent of normal hydrology experienced in Northern California this year. Indeed, normal hydrology will only yield a forecasted 1.3 million acre feet in the 2 MAF reservoir.

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San Luis Reservoir Still at Critically Low Levels

As of August 7th, San Luis storage is at 205,836AF and is at 10% of capacity (up 10,540AF from last week and unchanged in capacity percentage). The historical average is at 21% of normal for this time of year. This is lower than even 1976-77 —only this time Shasta Reservoir is at 109% of historical levels for this time of the year.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/reservoir_map.html

3A00&geom=huge&interval=5333&cookies=cdec01 http://cdec.water.ca.gov/jspplot/jspPlotServlet.jsp?sensor_no=3778&end=08%2F08%2F2016+10%

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Federal Storage within San Luis Reservoir As of August 7th, federal storage was at 39,571AF (4.10% full—down 311AF from last week). At least 38,000AF of that amount has been borrowed from the State Water Project. That has increased the debt to the State Project to about 110,000 acre feet. The Federal Level needs to be higher than 38,000 AF to equal the Federal share of the dead-pool space in San Luis Reservoir. The Federal share now compares to 44,000AF one year ago during a drought year as compared to the above normal precipitation year in the Northern California watershed from which the CVP water is generated. Total federal storage capacity is 965,655AF. The federal share of the reservoir is approximately 17% of the 15-year average of 233,000AF.

State Storage within San Luis Reservoir As of August 7th, state storage was at 166,265AF (now at 15.65% capacity—up 10,851AF from last week). The total state storage capacity in SLR is 1,062,180AF. Total State and Federal storage reported is 205,836AF. The reservoir is at 10% of capacity.

http://www.water.ca.gov/swp/operationscontrol/docs/storsanl.pdf

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Reservoir Storage As of August 7th, northern California reservoirs are between 59-109% of historical average and 46-76% of capacity— Folsom is down 5%, Oroville is down 4%, Shasta is down 2%, and Trinity is down 1% in capacity from last week. The central ones are between 21-103% of historical average and 10-71% of capacity. San Luis is unchanged in capacity.

progs/products/rescond.pdf - http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi

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Northern Sierra Precipitation As of August 9th, the 8-station Northern California index has recorded 57.8 inches of precipitation (unchanged). This represents 118% of the typical average rainfall to date. The average total for the normal

season is 50.0 inches.

progs/products/PLOT_ESI_HIST.pdf - http://www.cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/images/WYPrecip/BAR_ESI.PNG (559) 438-8418 08/09/2016 Page 5 The Wat er Agency , Inc. Water Supply Update

San Joaquin Precipitation As of August 9th, the 5-station San Joaquin index has recorded 40.0 inches of precipitation (unchanged). This represents 100% of the typical average rainfall to date. The average total for the normal season is 40.8 inches.

progs/products/PLOT_FSI_HIST.pdf - http://www.cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/images/WYPrecip/BAR_FSI.PNG

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Tulare Lake Basin Precipitation As of August 9th, the 6-station Tulare Basin index has recorded 25.7 inches of precipitation (unchanged). This represents 90% of the typical average rainfall to date. The average total for the normal season is 29.3 inches.

progs/products/PLOT_TSI_HIST.pdf - http://www.cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/images/WYPrecip/BAR_TSI.PNG

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Shasta Storage As of August 7th, storage was approximately 3,452,497AF (down 91,877AF and at 76% of capacity— down 2% in capacity from last week) and compares to 1,943,000AF one year ago. The current level is 109% of the historical average. Total capacity of Shasta is about 4,552,000AF. Shasta’s weekly average inflows are about 5,322AF/day, and outflows are about 17,606AF/day as of Sunday.

Reservoir graphs from: http://cdec.water.ca.gov/reservoir_map.html Inflows Outflows

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Trinity Lake Storage As of August 7th, storage was approximately 1,130,350AF with capacity being at 46% (down 20,336AF and down 1% in capacity from last week) and compares to 797,000AF one year ago. The current level is 59% of the historical average. Net inflows for the past week averaged 118AF/day. Total capacity of the Trinity is about 2,448,000AF. On Sunday, releases to the Trinity River were about 2,817AF/day.

Inflows Outflows

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Oroville Storage As of August 7th, storage was approximately 2,197,165AF (down 136,567AF and at 62% capacity—down 4% in capacity from last week) and compares to 1,124,000AF one year ago. The current level is 87% of the historical average. Inflows for the past week averaged 1,542AF/day. Total capacity of Oroville is 3,538,000AF. Current releases into the Feather River as of Sunday have gone to 20,613AF/day.

Inflows Outflows

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Folsom Storage As of August 7th, storage was approximately 434,872AF (down 49,751AF and at 45% capacity—capacity down 5% from last week) and compares to 260,000AF one year ago. The current level is 65% of the historical average. Inflows for the past week averaged 3,046AF/day. Total capacity of Folsom is 977,000AF. As of Sunday, releases were about 9,326AF/ day.

Inflows Outflows

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Friant Storage As of August 7th, storage was about 316,082AF (down 36,756AF and at 61% capacity—down 7% in capacity from last week) and compares to 174,000AF one year ago. The current level is 103% of the historical average. Inflows for the last week averaged about 2,341AF/day. Total capacity of Friant is 520,500AF. On Sunday, 2,363CFS was released into the Friant/Kern , 471CFS was released into the , and 686CFS was released into the , which is above the critical year flow of about 150-200CFS. The eight upstream San Joaquin River reservoirs are about 76% full, holding 464,037AF of their 611,688AF capacity.

Inflows Outflows

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New Melones Storage As of August 7th, storage was approximately 571,517AF (down 23,264AF and at 24% capacity—unchanged in percentage of capacity from last week) and compares to 330,000AF one year ago. The current level is 39% of the historical average. Inflows for the past week averaged 1,539AF/ day. Total capacity of New Melones is 2,400,000AF. Current releases to the have been adjusted to 3,312AF/day.

Inflows Outflows

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Daily Drought Information Summary

progs/reports/DROUGHTSUM - http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi (559) 438-8418 08/09/2016 Page 14 The Wat er Agency , Inc. Water Supply Update

Delta Inflows/Export Capacity vs. Pumping Chart (February 1, 2014 to August 7, 2016)

Because of the pumping restrictions that the layers of environmental rules like the Endangered Species Act Biological Opinions for the Delta Smelt and Salmonids cause, in the last thirty months, on only one day in mid- December 2014, did we pump at the maximum permitted level with the combined pumps at Tracy.

Since June, pumping had been increasing; mid-July it dropped off due to salinity issues; and fortunately, it has increased again.

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Plenty of water has been flowing through the delta. In the last thirty months, over 27.5 million acre-feet of water have poured into the delta. Of that water, 69.6 percent, or almost 19.2 million acre-feet, has gone out to the ocean, but just over 5.3 million acre-feet have been pumped into the California Aqueduct and Delta Mendota Canal for cities and farms. During 10/1/2015 to present, the losses are worse with 77.6 percent wasted to the ocean.

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The Current Water Year’s Delta Inflows/Export Capacity vs. Pumping Chart

(October 1, 2015 to August 7, 2016)

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Hot and Dry is the Forecast for California This Week.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1450727076

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/precipForecast.php?cwa=RSA&day=123456&img=6 (559) 438-8418 08/09/2016 Page 19 The Wat er Agency , Inc. Water Supply Update

6-10 day Precipitation Forecast:

6-10 day Temperature Forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ (559) 438-8418 08/09/2016 Page 20 The Wat er Agency , Inc. Water Supply Update

8-14 day Precipitation Forecast:

8-14 day Temperature Forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ (559) 438-8418 08/09/2016 Page 21 The Wat er Agency , Inc. Water Supply Update

August Precipitation Forecast:

August Temperature Forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php (559) 438-8418 08/09/2016 Page 22 The Wat er Agency , Inc. Water Supply Update

August–October Precipitation Forecast:

August–October Temperature Forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1 (559) 438-8418 08/09/2016 Page 23 The Wat er Agency , Inc. Water Supply Update

Long Range Forecast— The Climate Prediction Center/NCEP issued its new Update on August 8, 2016:

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch • ENSO-neutral conditions are present.* • Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are near or below average in the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. • La Niña is favored to develop during August-October (ASO) 2016, with about a 55-60% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17.* * Note: These statements (and the following charts) are updated at least once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf—pages 7 and 25 (559) 438-8418 08/09/2016 Page 24 The Wat er Agency , Inc. Water Supply Update

Allocations— The 2016 SWP allocation is set at 15% as of January 26, 2016. http://www.water.ca.gov/swpao/docs/notices/16-01.pdf As of February 24, 2016, the 2016 SWP allocation is set at 30%. http://www.water.ca.gov/news/newsreleases/2016/022416.pdf As of March 17, 2016, the 2016 SWP allocation is set at 45%. http://www.water.ca.gov/news/newsreleases/2016/031716.pdf As of April 21, 2016, the 2016 SWP allocation is set at 60%. http://www.water.ca.gov/swpao/docs/notices/16-06.pdf

As of April 1, 2016, USBR announces South-of-the-Delta Ag CVP Allocation is set at 5%, and Friant Class 1 allocation is set at 30%. http://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/newsrelease/detail.cfm?RecordID=53447

As of Friday, April 8, 2016, the Friant Class 1 allocation was increased to 40%.

As of Thursday, April 21, 2016, the Friant Class 1 allocation was increased to 50%. http://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/newsrelease/detail.cfm?RecordID=53887

As of Friday, May 6, 2016, the Friant Class 1 allocation was increased to 65%. http://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/newsrelease/detail.cfm?RecordID=54347

As of Monday, July 18, 2016, the Friant Class 1 allocation was increased to 75% along with an exchange agreement to support South-of-Delta operations. http://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/newsrelease/detail.cfm?RecordID=55667

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Disclaimer: The information contained herein is compiled from a number of sources. Some of what we report is gleaned from news articles or meetings we attend. While we strive for this information to be accurate, it may be in error, and much of the information and data contained herein is provisional and subject to future revisions. If you plan on using this information to make business decisions about your water assets or needs, we strongly suggest that you do your own independent verification of the accuracy of this information. The Wat er Agency, Inc. provides no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Neither The Wat er Agenc y, Inc., nor any of the sources of the information contained herein are responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the use or results obtained from the use of this information. Please feel free to send us information or opinions, which are contrary to what we write, so we can try to integrate them into future updates.

Erick H. Johnson [email protected] The Wate r Agenc y, Inc . Phone: (559) 438-8418 Fax: (559) 438-0480 2505 Alluvial Avenue, Clovis, CA 93611

(Northwest corner of Temperance & Alluvial)

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