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Developments in China's Military Force Projection and Expeditionary Capabilities DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA'S MILITARY FORCE PROJECTION AND EXPEDITIONARY CAPABILITIES HEARING BEFORE THE U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION ONE HUNDRED FOURTEENTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION THURSDAY, JANUARY 21, 2016 Printed for use of the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission Available via the World Wide Web: www.uscc.gov UNITED STATES-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION WASHINGTON: 2016 ii U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION HON. DENNIS C. SHEA, Chairman CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW, Vice Chairman Commissioners: PETER BROOKES HON. JAMES TALENT ROBIN CLEVELAND DR. KATHERINE C. TOB IN HON. BYRON L. DORGAN MICHAEL R. WESSEL JEFFREY L. FIEDLER DR. LARRY M. WORTZEL HON. CARTE P. GOODWIN MICHAEL R. DANIS, Executive Director The Commission was created on October 30, 2000 by the Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act for 2001 § 1238, Public Law No. 106-398, 114 STAT. 1654A-334 (2000) (codified at 22 U.S.C. § 7002 (2001), as amended by the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for 2002 § 645 (regarding employment status of staff) & § 648 (regarding changing annual report due date from March to June), Public Law No. 107-67, 115 STAT. 514 (Nov. 12, 2001); as amended by Division P of the “Consolidated Appropriations Resolution, 2003,” Pub L. No. 108-7 (Feb. 20, 2003) (regarding Commission name change, terms of Commissioners, and responsibilities of the Commission); as amended by Public Law No. 109- 108 (H.R. 2862) (Nov. 22, 2005) (regarding responsibilities of Commission and applicability of FACA); as amended by Division J of the “Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2008,” Public Law Nol. 110-161 (December 26, 2007) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission, and changing the Annual Report due date from June to December); as amended by the Carl Levin and Howard P. “Buck” McKeon National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015, P.L. 113-291 (December 19, 2014) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission). The Commission’s full charter is available at www.uscc.gov. iii February 23, 2016 The Honorable Orrin Hatch President Pro Tempore of the Senate, Washington, D.C. 20510 The Honorable Paul Ryan Speaker of the House of Representatives, Washington, D.C. 20515 DEAR SENATOR HATCH AND SPEAKER RYAN: We are pleased to notify you of the Commission’s January 21, 2016 public hearing on “Developments in China's Military Force Projection and Expeditionary Capabilities.” The Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act (amended by Pub. L. No. 113-291) provides the basis for this hearing. At the hearing, Commissioners received testimony from the following witnesses: Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro, Assistant Professor of Security Studies, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University; Mr. Timothy Heath, Senior International Defense Research Analyst, RAND Corporation; Dr. David Finkelstein, Vice President and Director of CNA China Studies Division, CNA Corporation; Mr. Mark Cozad, Senior International Defense Policy Analyst, RAND Corporation; Dr. Christopher Yung, Donald Bren Chair of Non- Western Strategic Thought and Director of East Asian Studies, Marine Corps University; Mrs. Kristen Gunness, Chief Executive Officer, Vantage Point Asia LLC, and Adjunct Senior International Policy Analyst, RAND Corporation; Dr. Thomas Bickford, Senior Research Scientist, CNA Corporation; and Rear Admiral Michael McDevitt, U.S. Navy (Ret.), Senior Fellow, CNA Corporation. The hearing examined Chinese security challenges, missions, and new operational developments associated with the military’s goal of honing force projection and expeditionary capabilities, and its implications for the United States and U.S. allies and partners in the Asia Pacific. We note that prepared statements for the hearing, the hearing transcript, and supporting documents submitted by the witnesses will soon be available on the Commission’s website at www.USCC.gov. Members and the staff of the Commission are available to provide more detailed briefings. We hope these materials will be helpful to the Congress as it continues its assessment of U.S.-China relations and their impact on U.S. security. The Commission will examine in greater depth these issues, and the other issues enumerated in its statutory mandate, in its 2016 Annual Report that will be submitted to Congress in November 2016. Should you have any questions regarding this hearing or any other issue related to China, please do not hesitate to have your staff contact our Congressional Liaison, Anthony DeMarino, at (202) 624-1496 or via email at [email protected]. Sincerely yours, Hon. Dennis C. Shea Carolyn Bartholomew Chairman Vice Chairman iv CONTENTS THURSDAY, JANUARY 21, 2016 DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA'S MILITARY FORCE PROJECTION AND EXPEDITIONARY CAPABILITIES Opening Statement of Commissioner Larry M. Wortzel (Hearing Co-Chair) .......................................................................................................01 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................02 Opening Statement of Commissioner Jeffrey L. Fiedler (Hearing Co-Chair) .......................................................................................................03 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................04 Panel I: Driving Factors for Expeditionary Capabilities Panel I Introduction by Commissioner Larry M. Wortzel (Hearing Co-Chair) .......................................................................................................05 Statement of Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro Assistant Professor of Security Studies Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University .......................06 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................09 Statement of Mr. Timothy Heath Senior International Defense Research Analyst, RAND Corporation ..........................21 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................23 Statement of Dr. David Finkelstein Vice President and Director of CNA China Studies Division, CNA Corporation ........38 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................41 Panel I: Question and Answer............................................................................................57 Panel II: Preparing for Joint Operations Panel II Introduction by Commissioner Jeffrey L. Fiedler (Hearing Co-Chair) .......................................................................................................76 Statement of Mr. Mark Cozad Senior International Defense Policy Analyst, RAND Corporation ...............................77 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................79 Statement of Dr. Christopher Yung Donald Bren Chair of Non-Western Strategic Thought and Director of East Asian Studies, Marine Corps University .................................................................................93 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................96 Panel II: Question and Answer ........................................................................................109 v Panel III: Implications Panel III Introduction by Commissioner Larry M. Wortzel (Hearing Co-Chair) .....................................................................................................126 Statement of Mrs. Kristen Gunness Chief Executive Officer, Vantage Point Asia LLC, and Adjunct Senior International Policy Analyst, RAND Corporation ............................................................................127 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................130 Statement of Dr. Thomas Bickford Senior Research Scientist, CNA Corporation .............................................................140 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................142 Statement of Rear Admiral Michael McDevitt, U.S. Navy (Ret.) Senior Fellow, CNA Corporation ................................................................................148 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................150 Panel III: Question and Answer ......................................................................................161 1 DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA'S MILITARY FORCE PROJECTION AND EXPEDITIONARY CAPABILITIES THURSDAY, JANUARY 21, 2016 U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION Washington, D.C. The Commission met in Room 106 of Dirksen Senate Office Building in Washington, DC at 9:00 a.m. Commissioners Jeffrey L. Fiedler and Larry M. Wortzel (Hearing Co-Chairs), presiding. OPENING STATEMENT OF COMMISSIONER LARRY M. WORTZEL HEARING CO-CHAIR HEARING CO-CHAIR WORTZEL: Good morning. Welcome. I want to thank all our panelists, first of all, for getting here and for the effort that you all put into the testimonies. It's not an easy time to begin to prognosticate about what the PLA is going to look like because things are changing very quickly. This is the Commission's first hearing of 2016, and before I start,
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