Demographic and Migration Trends in the Outermost Regions : Impacts on Territorial, Social and Territorial Cohesion ? EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - MARTINIQUE

Demographic and migration trends in the outermost regions : impacts on territorial, social and territorial cohesion ? EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - MARTINIQUE

Claude-Valentin MARIE and Jean-Louis RALLU

This document was ordered by the European Commission, Directorate General for Regional Policy

Editor : Coordination of Outermost Regions Unit (EN)

Disclaimer: "The opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not represent the official position of the European Commission (EC).

Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and the publisher (EC OIB) is given prior notice and sent a copy.

Objectives of the study

Following its Communication "The outermost regions: an asset for Europe", adopted on 17 October 2008, the Commission aims, in this study, to improve knowledge of the impact of demographics and migration in the ORs by:

* A description and analysis of the specific demographic and migration dynamics of each of these areas, and of expected trends in the short and medium terms;

* An analysis of the resulting issues at stake - taking into account the disadvantages they face, as listed in Article 299.2 of the Treaty - for the economic and social cohesion of these territories and the European Union.

As mentioned the Communication, this study takes into account the specific context of OR, marked with the speed of demographic and migration changes, and hope to meet "the need for information and reliable projections of these changes in order to integrate them into the land management policies”.

"The Outermost Regions of the European Union are islands or archipelagos in the Caribbean (Guadeloupe, Martinique, St Martin), Atlantic (Canaries, Madeira and the Azores) and the Indian Ocean (Reunion), except for Guyana, which is a small enclave in the Amazon region. In 1997, the Treaty of Amsterdam introduced the legal basis of the concept of the Outermost Regions. It was consolidated and strengthened by the Lisbon Treaty (Article 349, 107 (3) (a) TFEU.), which recognizes the special character of the ORs and the need for specific actions to promote their development. '

Participants to the study :

Claude Valentin Marie (INED) (Project head) Jean Louis Rallu (INED) (Coordinator)

Franck Temporal (INED) Jonas Roux (INED) Didier Breton (Univ. Strasbourg) Stéphanie Condon (INED)

Caroline Regnard and Claudia Simoes (assistants)

MARCH 2012

PRINCIPAL SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS

For each indicator, the OR under study is in red and the EU average is in blue (when no data is available for the EU, the bar is centered). Other ORs are in white. All ORs are individually presented by a specific color in the General executive summary.

1. SITUATION ANALYSIS

On 1st January 2008, the population of Martinique totaled 398,000. Over the period 1999-2008, Martinique is, after Guadeloupe (+4.3% and 3.9% respectively), the region with the lowest population growth, far behind Reunion Island (+14.4%) or French Guyana (39.5%). According to the national statistics office (INSEE) projections, the population will nearly stagnate over the next 20-30 years. By 2030 it will grow no more than by 20,000 inhabitants, that it an annual growth rate of 0.2% to 0.3%, a much lower rate than nationally. In contrast, the population of French Guyana will increase around 3% per annum between 2007 and 2030.

DEMOGRAPHY

Reduction in birth rates and increase in mortality From 1990 to 2007, the crude birth rate fell by 4 points in Martinique, from 17.7‰ to 13.3‰. These birth rates are thus the same today as in mainland France (12.7‰). Martinique is also the only region that is close to the national rate1. The number of children per women in Martinique is also close to the mainland France level of 2 children per woman. The total fertility rate (TFR) of the region leveled off from the 1990s whilst the level in mainland France has risen over the last 17 years.

As for mortality rates, the slight gap with mainland France (7.1‰ as compared with 8.4‰) is principally explained by a difference in age structure and not by better health conditions in the island. Nonetheless, when we compare rates to the early 1990s, it is clear that the crude death rates have risen alongside the ageing of the population, a trend that will accelerate over the coming years. The reduction in births and increase in deaths thus slow natural growth, the current (2007) rate being 6.2‰ against 11%o in 1990 and bring it progressively closer to mainland France (4.3‰). But these dynamics do not compensate for the migration deficit, hence the limited total growth of the population of late.

Migratory deficit Numerous native-born Martinicains, principally young men (15-34 years) leave the island every year. This emigration is not compensated for by the return of older migrants or by the arrival of mainland

1 Guadeloupe is fast approaching this level, despite a difference of 2.5 points with mainland France.

French-born or foreigner. From 1999 to 2006, 13,000 people left the island, some to complete their studies, some to look for work.

On the other hand, the native population aged over 35 years shows a positive balance between emigrants and returnees who gained work experience in mainland France. However, those returning in this age group are half as numerous as the younger emigrants. Only 6500 were recorded over the seven-year period. Three-quarters of the 2300 foreign born are aged under 352. A majority are women (62%), most of them arriving through the family reunion channel. In Martinique, the proportion of foreign-born is estimated at 3% of the total population (2007 census), a far lower level that in mainland France (11.1%).

The age pyramid for Martinique reveals these different dynamics, indented between 20-35 years, revealing the high emigration in this age group. Higher up the age pyramid, there is a swell reflecting the returning migrants and also other incomers.

Changes in population structure The main feature of the demography of Martinique is the accelerating ageing of the population, reducing the proportion of under 20-year-olds and increasing that of the over sixties. In 2007, the former accounted for 29% of the population, still well above the mainland level 25%, but in decline from 1990, when they represented 31% of the population. In contrast the proportion of the population over 60 has risen from 16% to almost 19% over the period, once again, becoming closer to the national average (21%).

The main consequence of this ageing is the increasing progression of the old age dependency ratio. In 2007, the ratio was over 21% in Martinique, compared with 25% in mainland France. Martinique has the highest population ageing indicator, with 48.2%, ahead of Guadeloupe (40.3%), Reunion Island (22.1%) and French Guyana (8.5%). In mainland France, where population ageing is well established, the indicator was at 66.7%.

Martinique-born in mainland France Emigration of the Martinique-born population expanded rapidly up until the end of the 1980s, and then slowed in the 1990s. There has been a new growth peak since 1999 (+11%) bringing the number of native Martinicains living in mainland France to 117,000 in 20073. Then, almost 40% aged 25-29 lives in metropolitan France. Between 20 and 60 years of age, the proportion never falls below 30%.

2 24% aged 18-24 and 41% aged 25-24. 3 The figure is slightly higher than that for Guadeloupe (115,000). 7

EDUCATION

Low skill level, but on the rise Illiteracy is high in Martinique: 12% of 16-24 year olds and of 25-29 year olds have difficulties writing4. Moreover, 40% of the population aged 15 and over no longer in education have no school qualifications; that is twice the national average of 20%.

However, these figures should not hide the genuine progress over recent years and the higher education levels of the young generations. Between 1999 and 2007, Martinique led the DOMs in terms of the drop in the proportion of people with no school qualifications (-8 points), the proportion of those with a first level vocational diploma rising by 2 points and those with the Baccalauréat by 4 points. The latter group represents a proportion similar to the national average, 13.7% as compared with 15.3% in mainland France5. It is important to recall that in 1999 less than 10% of the population had passed the Baccalauréat.

Inequalities according to birthplace Despite the progress made in Martinique, there are still inequalities according to birthplace. The proportion of people with low level or no diplomas is about 55% for the native born in contrast to 16% amongst residents born in mainland France, often with tertiary diplomas (two out of five). Two- thirds of French mainlanders (“métropolitains”) residing in Martinique have the Baccalauréat or higher diplomas, in contrast to 25% of the native born still residing in Martinique. In contrast to the other DOMs, people living in Martinique and born abroad have similar or slightly higher qualification levels to the native born. One third (35%) has a diploma equivalent to or higher than the Baccalauréat. Inequalities in education thus distinguish mostly those born in the island from those born in mainland France.

Tertiary educated native born Martinicains often reside in mainland France. Martinique has the highest proportion of tertiary educated people aged 30-34 amongst the DOMs, with a rate of 28.2% in 20076. However, the rate is still far below the 42% recorded for mainland France. The progression in numbers completing higher education, although at a similar pace as on the mainland, is not sufficient to enable the region to catch up. One of the explanations is that a sizeable number of young people going into further education go to university on the mainland, through choice or necessity. Many do not return to Martinique at the end of their studies.

Nonetheless, student numbers at the Antilles-Guyane University are not on the decline. In 2009, there were 12613 students registered, of whom 42.2% followed courses on the Martinique campus. This represented a rise of 5.7% from the previous year. However, 80% of the total students registered were following first level degree courses, compared with 59% on average nationally. The

4 These rates are however lower than in Guadeloupe and Reunion, 5 In 2008, 69% of young people born in Martinique reached the Baccalauréat, compared to 64.5% nationally. 6 Compared with 23.6% in Guadeloupe, 22.9% in Reunion Island and 19.2%% in French Guyana.

lower proportion of students following masters or doctoral courses in Martinique is largely explained by the limited number of specialties available locally, meaning that students have to leave for the mainland. In 2007, almost 60% of young Martinique born people aged 20-24 with tertiary qualifications lived in mainland France. In contrast, only 20% of people with few or no school qualifications resided there. The gap shrinks with increase in age, stabilizing around the age of 50 years, the proportions of low and highly educated people being similar.

EMPLOYMENT The annual rate of job creation since the beginning of the 1990s has always been positive, except during brief periods7. Since 2001, job creation rates have been similar to those in mainland France. But, the crisis resulted in a halt in job creation from 2006-2008. However, Martinique has not been affected by declines in employment, and even experienced increases in the number of jobs by 0.8% in 2009 and 2.3% in 2010, but unemployment increased anyway: by 2.9% in 2008 and 4.4% in 2009 before slightly declining by 2% in 2010.

The employment rate of the 20-64 year olds was the highest of all DOMs in 2010 (56%), but still well below national and EU averages (69%) - men’s rate was 61% and women’s rate was 53%, the highest in DOMs.

High unemployment rates, particularly amongst the young Despite increasing numbers of jobs in some sectors, the number of salaried workers has increased at a similar rate to mainland France and this is insufficient to absorb unemployment. In 2009, the unemployment rate in Martinique was 21.7% as against 9.4% in mainland France. However, it was below the Guadeloupe rate of 23.8 and especially, below that of Reunion Island (27%). The rate in French Guyana was slightly lower (21.1%). When we base calculations on the ILO definition and include the non-economically active population wishing to work, the proportion exceeds 30% in Martinique8 in comparison to 11% in mainland France. In contrast to women in Guadeloupe, Martinicain women have similar unemployment rates to men (22.7% and 20.6% respectively in 2009)9. However there are distinct differences according to age. Young people have the highest unemployment rates (61%), the rate being far higher than in Guadeloupe, where one in two young people are unemployed, and in mainland France with one out of four. Among young adults, 38% of 20-24 year olds were neither students nor employed. Although this rate is the lowest of all ORs, this is twice as high as national average (20%). Furthermore, one third of the under 30s in work were on short-term contracts in 2009, and they were also more often in part-time contracts than on the mainland. Women and the under 30s are also more often in part-time jobs than on average nationally. In 2009, 26.7% of economically active people aged under 30, as well as 22.6% of economically active women, were in part-time work as

7 In 1996, 2000 - due to particular circumstances- and in 2003 like in most of EU. 8 In comparison with 35% in French Guyana and in Reunion Island, 29% in Guadeloupe. 9 In mainland France, rates are virtually the same for women and men. 9

compared with 7.1% of men. For two-thirds of these women, being in part-time work was not a choice.

Effective dependency ratio Low employment rates result in high effective dependency ratios, with two dependents for one person in employment. Martinique thus ranks second amongst the DOMs after St Martin, but the rate is still well above national average (1.4).

Employment by sectors As in mainland France, the labour market is led by the service sector, accounting for over 80% of salaried workers. Numbers in the construction industry rose considerably between 2005 and 2007 (+20%) and the sector accounts for 6.5% of salaried workers in the island. Other industrial activities employed 7.5%. Agriculture still employs 4.2% of salaried workers, in contrast to only 2% in the other DOMs, and this despite a sharp fall in numbers between 2005 and 2007 (-12%).

The service sector is characterized by private services but also, as in all the DOMs, by large public sector. One third of salaried workers (32%) work in the public services, as compared to 20% nationally. In reality, this difference reflects a weak private service sector rather than a hypertrophic public sector. On a per capita basis, one in ten inhabitants is a public servant, as compared to 8% nationally. Levels therefore are not so different and, contrary to received ideas, numbers of civil servants in the island are not greatly disproportionate. However, Martinique is the DOM with the highest proportion of public sector workers.

Social vulnerability and exclusion In addition to higher unemployment rates than in mainland France, people in Martinique spend much longer seeking work. Nationally, the average length of unemployment is around twelve months whilst in the region, in is over forty months. Moreover, for people aged 30 or over, it can reach 52 months, in other words four years out of work. The long-term unemployed are more frequent than on the mainland (75% and 35% of unemployed respectively), as they are in French Guyana (79.5%) and Guadeloupe (80.8%). Meanwhile Reunion Island’s rate of long-term unemployed is lower, at 60%.

The proportion of people living on social benefits is a sign of the rise in numbers excluded from the labour market. Figures remain pretty stable, with almost 70,000 people concerned in 2009, 22% of the population aged over fifteen. The proportion is slightly lower than in Guadeloupe, but five times higher than the mainland rate. A sizeable proportion of these social allowance beneficiaries live off the minimum income (RMI; 16%). The recently introduced complementary social income (RSO, allocated to those accepting part-time contracts) represents only 2.9% of social benefits. Proportions are much higher in the other DOMs. Minimum state retirement benefit holds an important place amongst social benefits; almost two out of five Martinicains aged 65 or over qualifying for this. People qualifying for single parent allowance have increased in number by 40% between 2002 and 2009 (from 3641 women aged 15-49 to over 5000), the proportion of beneficiaries being five times higher than in mainland France (5% compared to 1%).

Whilst the poverty threshold (7,394 euros in 2006)10 is higher in Martinique than in the other DOMs, it is far below the level in mainland France (10,560). In 2006, 19% of the Martinicain population were in poverty; five years previously, the poverty level was four points lower. Meanwhile the rate remained stable in mainland France, at around 13%.

The effects of migration on employment Confronted with such an employment context, emigration to the mainland appears a good option for numerous Martinicains looking for work or to improve their education. For the low-skilled or those without school qualifications, a population for whom unemployment levels reach 25% in Martinique, emigration appears to have net benefits as regards employment. Men residing in mainland France have higher employment rates than on average and for women, the difference is even greater. Emigration thus is beneficial for these groups. Nonetheless, it is necessary to consider that there are strong selection processes at work. Only those who have managed to secure stable employment settle in mainland France, the others more often returning to Martinique, even if they are likely to remain unemployed.

In contrast, little difference in employment rates is observed between highly educated native Martinicains living in the island or in mainland France. Emigration also seems to bring little benefit in terms of skill level of the job occupied: tertiary educated Martinicains are only slightly more often in professional or managerial positions when they live in mainland France than those living in the island.

In Martinique, arrivals from outside, in particular from mainland France, do not generate any real competition in the highly skilled labour market. However, people born in mainland France, at equivalent skill levels, seem to secure management posts more easily. This is the case for half of male migrants, as opposed to less than 35% of men born in the island. Lower or unskilled mainland born migrants also find work more easily than native born with equivalent qualifications. Thus it appears that it is amongst the lower skilled groups, generally more vulnerable with respect to unemployment, that competition is stiffer between native born and incoming migrants.

THE ECONOMY

Since 1995, the gap has narrowed between the PPP GDP per capita for Martinique (19,000 euros in 2008) and the EU average. Martinique has thus caught up with 16% of the lag in 13 years; the level however remains 26% below the EU average. Productivity is responsible for 80% of growth in the GDP between 2000 and 2008 (35%), employment only having risen by 6.5%. Yet productivity is still 12% below the national average, a rather small progress compared to a gap by 16% in 2000-2001.

Martinique’s economy is principally a service economy (84% of added value), the remainder of the economy is shared between construction (6%), other industry (6%) and agriculture (4%). The trade balance shows a high deficit (coverage rate of 13%) and 33% of exports are food products. Most

10 The poverty threshold is equal to 60% of median income.

export is to other DOMs (68%), mainland France (25%) and the EU (1%). Neighbouring Caribbean states still represent only 3% of export markets, a low level of commercial exchange which deserves expanding.

HOUSEHOLDS AND HOUSING

Like in the Caribbean region, single parenthood is high in Martinique (48% of families with children are single parent families), this is higher than in Guadeloupe. Nine out of ten of these families are headed by a woman, only one third of whom are in employment. Amongst all families with children, one third does not have an adult in employment. Over and above the impact on social policy, this constitutes an important factor in social vulnerability, often accompanied by minimum education of children, who will be the socially vulnerable, young active population of the future.

Public sector housing in Martinique only accounts for 16.2% of housing stock and so cannot accommodate all those who could qualify for such housing. Yet the number of potential beneficiaries is considerable, given the high level of unemployment. These households face particular obstacles in finding affordable housing. Recent housing construction in Martinique, which has benefited from tax reductions, does not respond to the demand from these households: the units are too small and too costly. As a result, 15% of dwellings in Martinique are overpopulated. Furthermore, 12% of households do not have basic amenities (electricity, indoor water supply, sewage disposal).

HEALTH

At the turn of the 1990s, life expectancy had already reached the mainland France level, both for women and men. However, infant mortality and maternal mortality remain high, respectively twice and three times higher than the national level.

For both Martinique and Guadeloupe, endocrinal and metabolic diseases, among which diabetes, are the cause of twice as many deaths as in mainland France. The population of Martinique is particularly affected by chronic diseases linked to problems of nutrition, such as diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular diseases (the primary cause of mortality). Whilst mortality due to cancer is lower than in France generally, circulatory and genital-urinary diseases are much more common causes of death. Infectious diseases and external causes, notably accidents, are also slightly more frequent. Male mortality caused by mental disease resulting from alcohol abuse also is higher than in mainland France. Although HIV/AIDS prevalence is lower in Martinique than in other Caribbean DOMs, it is twice as high as in mainland France and as such an important cause of premature deaths. 12

Education for health and availability of health services Social factors in health inequality such as low education, exclusion from the labour market and social vulnerability must be considered. However the insufficient provision of health services also plays a role. The number of general practitioners, and particularly specialists, per inhabitant are respectively 15% and 29% below national averages and access to hospitals and other health centres remains difficult for isolated parts of the island. Finally, better public information of lifestyle related diseases and health risks must be intensified.

ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY As for most tropical islands, Martinique has a rich land and marine biodiversity, but is subject to natural disasters, hurricanes, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. There are problems related to water distribution and quality. The use of the dangerous pesticide chlordecone during the 1970s and up until 1993 contaminated soil and water sources, including the coastlines.

On the other hand, the production of waste has decreased by 4.2% between 2006 and 2007, despite a 0.6% increase in the population. This signals a change in the behaviour of households that should be encouraged. Over 42% of waste products are used in energy production, but selective collection for recycling remains at a low level (0.9% as compared to 6.4% in Reunion island and 13.6% at the national level). New channels for recycling are currently being sought, including for final waste products. The problem is being examined at the regional level. The Fourth Caribbean interregional cooperation programme (2007-2013) includes a chapter dedicated to the issue and the possibilities of sharing know-how and industrial capacity are being considered.

In Martinique, electricity production from renewable sources only covers 2% of the island’s needs. It is produced by the waste incineration factory (4 MW), wind turbines in Vauclin (1 MW) and from 42 solar panel installations connected to the EDF network. This clearly is insufficient and the region continues to import the entirety of its petrol.

Martinique does have a certain potential for geothermal energy production. The underground water is not hot enough for electricity production but it can be used for fish production and spa therapy. Finally, the island is offered the opportunity of experimenting energy production through OTEC (Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion).

Martinique’s population density is the second highest in ORs, second only to St Martin, making further urban extension difficult, because of rising land prices. Rehabilitation of city centres will be necessary to build new housing.

2. IMPACTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC AND MIGRATORY TRENDS

The island’s population will increase very slightly by 2030, from 402,700 in 2010 to 424,000 inhabitants. The increase will be less that 5% over the period, reflecting the end of the demographic transition and this being hastened the continued emigration of young people.

The population of Martinique will age more quickly than the national population. The older population is quite significant now and the proportion will double between now and 2030 (28.1%), whilst the working age population will decrease by nine points, from 65.3% to 55.8%.

Before 2020, there will be more people aged 65 or over than people aged under fifteen years. The ageing index11 will more than double, from 77% in 2010 to 175% in 2030. This is a far higher level than in the other DOMs, apart from Guadeloupe (163%). The total dependency ratio will also increase considerably, from 53.1% in 2010 to 80% in 2030, that is, along with Guadeloupe, the highest rate amongst the DOMs. From 2020, the most elderly will account for more than half this indicator.

Impact on education In line with the moderate but regular decline in the youngest portion of the population, the numbers of pre-school age children should decrease by 11% between 2010 and 2030. The drop will be even sharper for primary and secondary school age children, respectively, 17% and 16%.

But this reduction in numbers should not mask the deep need for more efficient and higher quality education provision in order to at last reduce illiteracy and school failure. Repeated school years increase the educational costs at lower levels by keeping pupils within the school system beyond the compulsory age. It is clear that efforts and investments in education should be kept up or even increased over the next decade. Nonetheless, even if improvements are made, the EU 2020 objective of 40% of the population with higher education qualifications will be difficult to attain. This is despite the input from migrants born in mainland France or elsewhere in the EU, because emigration of skilled migrants to mainland France will continue (almost 60% of young Martinicains with higher education diplomas live there).

11 The ratio between the number of elderly people and the young.

Impact on labour force and effective dependency ratios In terms of employment, the EU 2020 objective of 75% of the 20-64 age group in employment by 2020 is also unrealistic. Even the current European average (69%) is unattainable by that date. The high level of job creation before the crisis (2000 p.a.) is insufficient, as 3000 per year would be necessary. Aiming for this target by 2030 is more feasible by stretching job creations over 20 years and taking advantage of the reduction in the working age population. But this possibility relies on two suppositions: firstly that job creation rises back to the pre-crisis level and, secondly, that the fall in the number of adults does not slow economic growth.

Basing estimations of constant activity rates, the economically active population of Martinique should decrease by 6.2% from 2010 to 2020 and by 11.5% to 2030. At stake is the maintaining of the ‘effective dependency ratio’ at a fairly low level, despite population ageing. If employment rates stay at their pre-crisis level, the effective dependency rate should increase from 199% in 2010 to 263% in 2030; that is almost three dependent persons for one person in work. If employment rates reach the current EU average by 2030, the dependency rate would fall back to 180%.

Impact on health : very rapid increases in the numbers and proportions of elderly During the same period, the number of persons aged 75 or over will increase more than two-fold, as will those aged 85 or over. These changes will be accompanied by strong growth in health spending, since these age groups consume most of health services. The increased ageing will make it necessary to increase the number of general practitioners (+2.8% p. a.) and specialists (+3.8% p.a.) in order bring up the medical cover just to the 2008 national level. Hospital beds will need to be increased by 1.3% p.a. The volume of these needs justifies rapid development of telemedicine, in particular for medical specialties. It will also require new approaches to meeting the demands of dependency in the aged population.

Further moderate increases in the number of households Ageing and quasi-stabilisation of the population will be accompanied by an increase in the number of households. These will increase by 10% by 2020 and a further 6% between 2020 and 2030. In parallel, they will gradually decrease in size, from 2.5 to 2.2 persons per household. In addition, in 2030 more than four in ten households will be headed by a person aged 65 or over. The increase in the number of households will generate a rise in the demand for energy and water, but also for waste disposal. Energy consumption is difficult to predict, in particular that of fuel and electricity. A move toward hybrid vehicles could be a means by which to reduce fuel consumption, but there is currently no data on which to base forecasts. Whatever the solutions found, local production of electricity from renewable sources is far more advantageous than importing petrol.

3. RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

From the above discussion, Martinique appears demographically - and also socio-economically - very similar to Guadeloupe. This is, except for the higher population density that constrains urban development. Challenges and opportunities are very similar and this is reflected in the recommendations. However, political choices specific to each territory lead to differences regarding future development, particularly on environmental topics and energy consumption, leaving these beyond the scope of a demographic and socio-economic forecasts. We shall however mention that these similarities could -or should- be an opportunity to strengthen regional integration through developing partnerships on economic and social projects of common interest, pooling resources and increasing economies of scale.

Along with Corsica, Martinique will be the most rapidly ageing French region over the next two decades. From 2020, the proportion of young people will be lower than that of older people and the dependency rate will be above that of the national average. These dynamics mark the end of a period during which the region benefited from a population younger than that of the mainland. The school age population will continue to decrease, as will the working age population (from 2015) whilst the aged population will increase in number and in proportion. Foreign immigration, at a lower level than for Guadeloupe, will not compensate for the emigration of native born Martinicains. Furthermore, the migrants originate principally from the Caribbean region and are low-skilled.

These demographic changes will take place in a context in which Martinique lags behind mainland France with regard to most socio-economic indicators. Qualification levels within the working age population are notably lower. Even though students taking the baccalauréat and the results are gradually catching up with the national average, illiteracy and school failure rates are still high and, as a result, the UE2020 objectives for education and employment seem impossible to attain.

Such a situation makes it imperative to increase efforts in favour of social cohesion over the next decade, through education and training. Improvement in skill levels is a necessary condition to be able to respond to labour market openings that are increasingly selective, increase employment rates and, in particular, reduce the rate of effective dependency which, otherwise, will reach such high levels that they could no longer be borne by either households or society (see above). Thus, support to the employment market also should continue. However, the different elements must be adapted in order to work together as efficiently as possible.

As regards health, the rise in cardiovascular diseases and diabetes suggests a sharp increase in funding needs. At the same time, the lack of sufficient health services which is likely to be exacerbated owing to the speed of population ageing and the increase in dependency.

Improvement in housing standards, the increase in energy efficiency and greater recourse to renewable energy sources and environmental preservation – including its repair following pollution through use of pesticides – are all unavoidable tasks to be performed in order to meet the EU2020 environmental and energy objectives and to improve cohesion. Building collective housing for young workers as well as for elderly people – that are really in scarce supply- should also be part of construction projects.

These topics, highly influenced by demographic trends, are challenges which Martinique has to face, through examining all the available opportunities to redirect spending investments. A number of difficult decisions will have to be made.

Savings made by reducing the numbers of young people, notably in education, will not be totally transferable to the older population. The reduction in illiteracy and school failure must remain a priority and considerable effort must be made to improve the quality of teaching and vocational training for young people with no qualifications. Whether they will seek employment in Martinique or outside the island, their skill level and employability must be reinforced.

Similarly, in the field of health: savings linked to the fall in the birth rate and the reduction of the number of children cannot be transferred wholesale to the ageing population. Infant mortality and maternal mortality remain much higher than nationally. In parallel, the cost of certain adult diseases will continue to increase, leaving little leeway for transferring resources to supporting the aged population. Nonetheless, the rapid progress of the number of older people should allow economies of scale in this new and expanding sector.

Response to these challenges means that priority must be given to the potential in the labour market, in order to reduce the burden of ‘dependant’ people on those in work. In this respect, the trends described offer an opportunity insofar as they have the potential to create employment. Many new jobs will be in the social services, assisting the dependant elderly and necessitating an ‘a minima’ paramedical training, whose cost should remain accessible to households who have less and less access to family solidarity. There is also a potential for new skilled employment in the realm of telemedicine and the prevention of lifestyle related diseases. Needs for training of young people with few qualifications also could generate new jobs in the education sector, whether public or private. The growth in number of households, the increasing and changing needs (heightened concerns about the well-being of the young and changing lifestyles amongst the elderly) open up perspectives in new spheres of innovation and improvement of housing and habitat at the same time as greater energy efficiency. Setting up a public transport network – there are only private collective taxis -, like has been done in Reunion, would reduce jams around urban centres.

The necessary reduction of dependency on imported fossil fuels opens up opportunities in the sphere of renewable energy sources and their development. Taking technical progress underway, R and D activities aiming to adapt production, stocking and distribution of renewable energy to the realities of tropical environments should be encouraged. Such initiatives would also be of great interest to local universities, offering them new directions to follow for teaching courses and research, increasing their importance, their attractiveness and their contribution to science. Partnerships could be established with mainland Europe or neighbouring countries. And on this model, the development and use of resources linked to their terrestrial and marine biodiversity could position Martinique and Guadeloupe as poles of excellence in these new domains. New professions linked to environmental preservation also offer as yet little explored potentials for job creation and research in the field of the specificities of tropical environments.

The size of research teams and the investment costs involved in developing such sectors make it necessary to set up new partnership focussing on activities with high added value. This would enable Martinique and Guadeloupe to move toward greater economic independence subsequently releasing them from their highly dependent relationship with the mainland. The forms and local applications of such research could also be conducted in partnership with European countries. Outlets for export to other DOMs or neighbouring countries could be sought. Such partnerships exist already in the field of environmental preservation, for example in recycling and waste disposal. Similar structures could be set up for employment or health education, with mainland France and Europe and then with neighbouring Caribbean states. New approaches must be initiated and new methods experimented, in particular in education, health, energy and the environment.

The emphasis placed here on the development of new technologies constitutes in our view a powerful factor to attract back native Martinicains living outside the island (principally in mainland France). This would be so for the most highly qualified who, up until now, have not found jobs suited to their level of qualifications. This return movement would also have other beneficial effects, such as limiting the fall in size of the active population, reducing the rate of dependency and increasing skill levels in the local labour market. The island would fully benefit from the qualifications and work experience of Martinicains returning from mainland France or elsewhere in the EU.

In sum, the three major ambitions for the future of the DOMs are united here: increase and enhancing of the value of human capital, endogenous economic development through activities with high added value, regional and international cooperation.