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(FAME) Project to Develop a Seasonal Water Deficit Forecasting System

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(FAME) Project to Develop a Seasonal Water Deficit Forecasting System GEWEX is a Core Project of WCRP on Global Energy and Water Exchanges Vol. 27 No. 4, November 2015 Forecasting for Africa and the Middle East (FAME) Project to Develop a Seasonal Water Deficit Forecasting System Simulated and satellite-based water levels at six locations along the Tigris River as shown in the map on the right. Radar altimetry data were bias corrected, matching water level simulations. The yellow and green colors on the map represent rainfed and irrigated agriculture, respectively, as reported in the Global Map of Rainfed and Irrigated Paddy Croplands (GRIPC; Salmon et al., 2015). Reservoir operation at the Mosul Dam results in a high amplitude and shifted water level fluctuation when compared to the naturalized regime, as simulated by the Hydrologic Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) at Location 1. The model shows some skill at other locations, but altered reservoir outflows still impact water levels downstream of the dam. Radar altimetry data at Location 6 show a positive trend in annual minimum water levels not detected by the model. The observed regime is probably due to recent changes in the Tharthar Lake water flow operation. See article by A. Getirana et al. on page 8. Also Inside • NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) Climatology Data Set Released (Page 3) • New GEWEX Process Evaluation Study: GEWEX-PROES (Page 4) • New GEWEX Crosscut Project to Include Water Management in Models (Page 6) • The Recent Partial Recovery in Sahel Rainfall: A Fingerprint of Greenhouse Gases Forcing? (Page 11) • 5-Year Review of the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) Achievements (Page 20) 20–23 October 2015 | ESA-ESRIN | Frascati, Italy In this newsletter, there are many articles on new GEWEX Commentary activities, several of which are focused on Africa and climate change. One of these is the GEWEX Process Evaluation Study (GEWEX-PROES, on page 4), which will take advan- tage of existing data sets to advance process understanding New Plans for Water Cycle Science and and representation in models, both through new efforts and Related GEWEX Activities in collaboration with existing groups and activities. Another new GEWEX focus area is the anthropogenic influences on Peter van Oevelen the global water cycle as a part of the World Climate Research Director, International GEWEX Project Office Programme (WCRP) Water Availability Grand Challenge. The article on page 6 reviews the various aspects of this topic and how they will be addressed within GEWEX, mostly by the GEWEX Hydroclimatology Panel (GHP) and the Global In October, GEWEX and the European Space Agency (ESA) Land Atmosphere System Studies Panel (GLASS). An inter- held a very successful conference on Earth Observation for esting article by Augusto Getirana, an early career scientist Water Cycle Science in Frascati, Italy. Special emphasis was working at the National Aeronautics and Space Administra- placed on new science avenues and observational requirements tion’s Goddard Space Flight Center, is “Forecasting Water for water cycle science. Two important Earth observation ac- Availability in Data Sparse and Heavily Managed Catch- tivities being planned in Europe and the U.S. were presented. th ments in Africa and the Middle East” on page 8. The report In Europe, ESA is planning the follow-on to its 4 Earth Ob- on the “First HyCRISTAL Workshop—Integrating Hydro- servation Envelope Programme, which represents the main climate Science into Policy Decisions for Climate-Resilient driver for science and innovation in ESA Earth observation Infrastructure and Livelihoods in East Africa” (page 23) has activities. The Programme currently covers the preparation strong scientific connections to Getirana’s article. GEWEX and implementation of the Earth Explorers, development and HyCRISTAL are connected through the new GHP Re- of future technologies, mission operations and exploitation gional Hydroclimate Project (RHP) in central Africa called activities in terms of science and applications, providing an the Hydrology of the Lake Victoria Basin (HyVic) Study. The end-to-end approach for the early preparation of future mis- article on page 11 focuses on the Sahel in northern Africa sions to the exploitation activities hand-to-hand with the user and explores the effect of global climate on the character of http:// and scientific community. For more information, see: precipitation in this region. www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Space_Engineering_Technology/ About_the_Earth_Observation_Envelope_Programme_EOEP. To conclude, I would like to highlight an issue that has arisen often over the past several years: how do we as scientists deal In the U.S., the National Academy of Science is initiating its with meetings and experiments that take place in regions of 2017 Decadal Survey to “consider developments in the full enterprise of space-based Earth observations, including new the world that have ideologies and policies that are at odds non-governmental providers of Earth observations, the avail- with our own? Often the initial response is that such efforts ability of smaller platforms and the increasing emphasis on are easier to abandon than support, as continuing them im- operational affordability.” The survey includes the Earth and plies tacit encouragement for policies that we do not endorse. environmental monitoring programs at the National Oce- In general I do not agree with that assessment, as firstly we anic and Atmospheric Administration and U.S. Geological are not a political organization and discontinuing our col- Survey, and will pay particular attention to these agencies’ laboration in these regions will only further increase their operational responsibilities for continuous observations and isolation. Secondly, doing so would not advance either our delivery of application products to the public. For more in- own or their scientific interests. In addition, I believe that a formation, see: http://sites.nationalacademies.org/SSB/Current- continued dialogue and presence may improve understand- Projects/SSB_166359. ing of the ideological differences on both sides. Of course, this is only valid when those ideologies and policies do not One of the primary conclusions of the ESA-GEWEX Confer- hamper or interfere with our safety. If there are any concerns ence was that, although past single or limited parameter Earth of this nature within the GEWEX community, I would like observational missions have proven their usefulness, they are to hear them, and will address them in a confidential manner. most likely not the best way forward in tackling climate change Being part of a global collaborative effort such as WCRP and issues. This is especially true of challenges related to the wa- GEWEX means that we deal with a lot of cross-cultural in- ter cycle. There is general concurrence that new observational teractions. It also means finding common ground and shared systems should add on to existing systems by maximizing syn- goals, which can be both a challenge and a boon as we gain ergy and minimizing duplicity, while ensuring that the system new insights and opportunities. The latter is of particular has redundancy (e.g., a constellation-type approach similar to importance in the education of new scientists in all regions the A-Train). It is always exciting to think about the possi- of the world, and will help to increase our ability, both in bilities of new spaceborne observational missions and what is human resources and other capacities, to tackle the global planned in this regard in the next two years. climate change challenge. 2 November 2015 Recent News of Interest NEWS WEB Climatology Data Set Version 1.0 GEWEX Scientists Elected to Released by NASA GES DISC National Academy of Engineering The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Hydrological Scienc- The National Academy of Engineering membership honors es Laboratory and Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Informa- those who have made outstanding contributions to “engineer- tion Services Center (GES DISC) are pleased to announce the ing research, practice, or education, including, where appro- release of the NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) priate, significant contributions to the engineering literature,” Climatology of the 1st Decade of the 21st Century Data Set, and to the “pioneering of new and developing fields of tech- available from: http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/uui/#/search/NEWS. nology, making major advancements in traditional fields of en- gineering, or developing/implementing innovative approaches This data set summarizes the original observation-based mean to engineering education.” fluxes of Water and Energy Budget (WEB) components dur- ing the first decade of the 21st century for each continent and Graeme L. Stephens, Director of the Center for Climate Sci- ocean basin. These data are summarized on both monthly and ences at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, annual scales, as well as means over all oceans, all continents, was chosen for his elucidation of the Earth’s cloud system and and the globe. A careful accounting of uncertainty in the es- radiation balance. timates is included. Also, the data set includes optimized ver- sions of all component fluxes that simultaneously satisfy en- Eric F. Wood, Susan Dod Brown Professor of Civil and Envi- ergy and water cycle balance constraints. ronmental Engineering at Princeton University in Princeton, New Jersey was chosen for his development of land surface More information is available at: http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/ models and use of remote sensing for hydrologic modeling datareleases/news-web-climatology-data-set-version-1.0-released- and prediction. by-nasa-ges-disc. Siegfried Schubert, NASA Research Scientist and Contents GEWEX SSG Member, Has Retired Commentary: New Plans for Water Cycle 2 On behalf of the GEWEX com- Science and Related GEWEX Activities munity, we thank Dr. Schubert for all the work he has done to support Recent News of Interest 3 GEWEX as a member of the Scien- tific Steering Group and his contri- Student InvolvementContents at the 2015 AGU Fall Meeting 4 2 butions towards the formation of a The GEWEX Process Evaluation Study: 4 global drought information system.
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