Available East Coast Gas Study
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Available East Coast Gas Study An independent report prepared by EnergyQuest for Marathon Resources Limited 8 November 2014 Contents List of figures ....................................................................................................... 2 List of tables ........................................................................................................ 3 Terms of reference .............................................................................................. 4 Key points ...........................................................................................................4 Eastern Australia gas demand and supply context ............................................. 5 Gas demand ..................................................................................................................... 5 Gas supply ........................................................................................................................ 6 Interstate trade ................................................................................................................. 8 Gas prices ........................................................................................................................ 9 LNG project impact ......................................................................................................... 10 Oil price........................................................................................................................... 11 LNG projects starting to ramp up ................................................................................... 11 Gas demand and contracts ............................................................................... 12 Gas-fired generation ....................................................................................................... 13 Major industrial demand ................................................................................................. 18 Utility demand ................................................................................................................. 21 Recent contracts ............................................................................................................. 24 Demand and supply balance ............................................................................. 25 Further supply sources ...................................................................................... 27 Gas prices .........................................................................................................28 LNG netbacks and development costs ........................................................................... 28 Contract gas prices ......................................................................................................... 29 Appendix: Power station maps .......................................................................... 31 Abbreviations .................................................................................................... 35 Conversion factors ............................................................................................ 38 Terms of use ..................................................................................................... 39 List of figures Figure 1 East coast gas consumption......................................................................................................................... 5 Figure 2 East coast gas supply ................................................................................................................................... 7 Figure 3 Sales gas production and consumption 2013 (PJ) ....................................................................................... 9 Figure 4 Annual average east coast gas prices........................................................................................................ 10 Figure 5 Oil price, Brent (US$/bbl) ............................................................................................................................ 11 Figure 6 Daily Queensland gas production July 1 to October 19 2014 .................................................................... 12 Figure 7 Brisbane STTM gas price 1 July to 21 October 2014 ................................................................................. 12 Figure 8 NEM gas demand for generation (PJ) ........................................................................................................ 17 Figure 9 GPG surplus (contracted less demand forecast) (PJ) ................................................................................ 17 Figure 10 Contract profile major industrials (PJ) ...................................................................................................... 21 Figure 11 Major industrial gas demand (PJ) ............................................................................................................. 21 Figure 12 AGL gas sources (PJ) .............................................................................................................................. 22 Figure 13 Origin Energy gas sources (PJ)................................................................................................................ 23 Figure 14 Utility demand (ex-power generation) (PJ) ............................................................................................... 24 Figure 15 East coast gas demand 2014-20 (PJ) ...................................................................................................... 26 Figure 16 East coast domestic demand and contracts (PJ) ..................................................................................... 26 Figure 17 East coast gas demand and supply 2014-2020 (PJ) ................................................................................ 27 Figure 18 Short-run LNG netbacks ........................................................................................................................... 28 Figure 19 Australia rolling three year finding and development costs, oil and gas, proved and probable ($/GJ) ..... 29 Figure 20 Contract gas prices ($/GJ, 2014$)............................................................................................................ 30 Level 30 91 King William St Adelaide SA 5000 Telephone (08) 8431 7903 Mobile 0419 828 617 Email [email protected] ABN 18 503 484 404 ACN 139 665 295 www.energyquest.com.au 2 Figure 21 Queensland power stations ...................................................................................................................... 31 Figure 22 NSW power stations ................................................................................................................................. 32 Figure 23 Victorian and Tasmanian power stations ................................................................................................. 33 Figure 24 South Australian power stations ............................................................................................................... 34 List of tables Table 1 South East Australia gas demand and supply ............................................................................................... 6 Table 2 East coast gas production and reserves ....................................................................................................... 8 Table 3 Major east coast gas buyers ........................................................................................................................ 13 Table 4 Queensland gas-fired generation ................................................................................................................ 14 Table 5 NSW and Victoria gas-fired generation ....................................................................................................... 15 Table 6 South Australia and Tasmania gas-fired generation ................................................................................... 16 Table 7 Queensland industrial contracts .................................................................................................................. 19 Table 8 Other east coast industrial contracts ........................................................................................................... 20 Table 9 Gas supply contracts, other utilities (PJ) ..................................................................................................... 23 Table 10 East coast gas contracts signed since October 2010 ................................................................................ 25 Level 30 91 King William St Adelaide SA 5000 Telephone (08) 8431 7903 Mobile 0419 828 617 Email [email protected] ABN 18 503 484 404 ACN 139 665 295 www.energyquest.com.au 3 Terms of reference Marathon Resources Limited is looking at the East Coast market, including the existing networks in Qld, NSW, Victoria and South Australia. The end position they are seeking to understand in detail is What customers need gas in what volume and over what timeline, What are the estimated cash costs of some of the newer projects, and When the current suite of gas contracts expire. Obviously, in compiling this data, the reserves/ resources and current demand profiles will be available. Key points The east coast domestic gas market is currently in a period of transition as the LNG projects begin commissioning. The much-expected surge of ramp gas is now happening, increasing production and driving down short-term