Making the Clean Energy City in China: Year 2 Report

Year 2 Report Making the Clean Energy City in China: Year 2 Report Massachusetts Institute of Technology Center for Advanced Urbanism School of Architecture and Planning Making the Clean Energy City In China Year 2 Report MakingMaking the Clean Energy Energy CityCity In China Year 2 Report Making the Clean Energy City in China: Year 2 Report Massachusetts Institute of Technology Center for Advanced Urbanism School of Architecture and Planning Dennis Frenchman Christopher Zegras June, 2012 Making the Clean Energy City In China Year 2 Report Credits Principle Investigators Dennis Frenchman, Leventhal Professor of Urban Design and Planning MIT Christopher Zegras, Associate Professor of Transportation Planning, MIT Contributing Investigators Jan Wampler, Professor of Architecture, MIT Mao Qizhi, Professor of Urban Planning and Design, Tsinghua University Zhang Jie, Professor of Urban Planning and Design, Tsinghua University Shao Lei, Assistant Professor of Urban Planning MIT Research Assistants, 2010-2011 Research Assistants 2011-2012 Yang Chen Cressica Brazier Daniel Daou Yang Chen Reza Darbari Yang Chu Shani Sharif Rosie Sherman Rosie Sherman Bill Dong Wang Nah-yoon Shin Ira Winder Jue Wang Feifei Yu Ira Winder Judy Zheng Aspasia Xypolia Heshuang Zheng Report Editors Ira Winder Rosie Sherman © 2012. MIT / Dennis Frenchman, Christopher Zegras Acknowledgements The research team wishes to thank the Energy Foundation, China for its generous support of Making the ‘Clean Energy City’ in China, a research project of Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Partners in the research include: Tsinghua University, Shandong University and Beijing Normal University who were responsible for field work in the City of Jinan. We also wish to thank the City of Jinan for its assistance and cooperation with the project. This report would not be possible without the many years of contributions from students. Making the Clean Energy City In China Year 2 Report Contents Section 1: Neighborhoods and Energy 1. Introduction: Designing Clean Energy Cities 1 2. Current Approaches to Clean Energy Development 12 3. Neighborhoods and Energy: A Life Cycle Approach 31 Section 2: The Case of Jinan, China 4. The Evolution of Urban Development of Jinan 43 5. Urbanization Forces and Trends in Jinan 52 6. Neighborhoods in Jinan 62 Section 3: Empirical Investigations 7. Introduction to Empirical Analysis 76 8. Energy Consumption in Jinan 81 9. Urban Form and Energy Consumption 115 Section 4: Patterns, Proforma, and Policy Recommendations 10. Developing the Clean Energy City: Patterns and Tools 120 11. Measuring Neighborhood Energy Performance: Energy Proforma© Version 2.0 153 12. Policy Recommendations 168 Works Cited 178 Appendices A. Travel Energy Consumption B. Embodied Energy Consumption C. Sun and Wind Related Urban Form Indices D. The Renewable Energy Potential Estimation and Urban Form E. F. Energy Sources in the Residential Sector of Jinan G. Energy Proforma User Guide Making the Clean Energy City In China Year 2 Report Section I Neighborhoods and Energy Making the Clean Energy City In China Year 2 Report 1 Introduction: Designing Clean Energy Cities This report presents the results of year two of a three year research effort being undertaken at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, entitled, “Making the Clean Energy City in China,” sponsored by the Energy Foundation. The work has been undertaken with the assistance of partner institutions in China including Tsinghua University, Beijing Normal University, and Shandong University. Together, we are seeking to implement cleaner, more energy efficient, and higher quality patterns of urban development to house the hundreds of millions of people who will come to live to Chinese cities in the coming decades. The forms in which they are housed will have a profound impact on their day-to-day lifestyles and, in turn, overall energy consumption across China. 1.1 Neighborhoods and Energy That neighborhood form is linked to energy consumption is intuitive. Neighborhoods with ‘walk-able’ streets can save energy because they encourage residents to get out of their cars. Neighborhoods that orient to the sun, or wind, or minimize paved surfaces, can save energy because they reduce the need for heating, or cooling. Many energy saving strategies such as these are now being encouraged in the design of neighborhoods around the world, including China. But, how effective are they? How do we measure the results? More importantly, how can we compare the performance of one urban form verses another in terms of their energy consumption? These are the central questions addressed by “Making the Clean Energy City in China”. To date, numerous studies and research efforts have addressed issues of urban energy utilization and opportunities to reduce consumption. These have focused primarily on either the vast scale of metropolitan regions, or the small scale of individual buildings. However, there are almost no studies of energy consumption at the scale of urban development. This is the scale of neighborhoods, commercial districts, and real estate projects, which are the fundamental building blocks of urban growth. How can we hope to make a meaningful impact on reducing energy consumption in cities without addressing the issue of how energy is consumed at the scale at which the city is actually being built? Furthermore, while we may understand how energy is consumed within individual buildings, or by cars, it is less clear how this consumption is affected by the daily choices and patterns of behavior of individuals living, working, and moving within the geographic scope of their environment, or neighborhood. Do all urban forms lead to behavior that consumes energy in equal amounts, or are there differences among the forms? What is the source of the differences? These questions have yet to be answered, as well as those such as: How can designers and developers choose among a vast array of variables to design more energy efficient scenarios in Making the Clean Energy City In China Year 2 Report particular circumstances? How can they assess the energy consumption of their project or alternatives? And finally, how can they do this in a way that is comparable to other projects to provide a basis for some kind of energy policy about the built environment? As China’s urbanization continues over the next decades, building hundreds of millions of new homes, answers to these questions, and scenarios for clean energy neighborhood development will become increasingly critical. The next two sections of this chapter briefly introduce the scale and dimension of this challenge – both that of increasing urbanization and energy consumption in Chinese cities, and the lack of appropriate tools for designers, developers, and policymakers to use in creating more energy efficient projects at the urban neighborhood scale. The final section describes the research objectives and key findings from Year 2 of the ‘Making the Clean Energy City in China’ and outlines the organization and chapters of this report. 1.2 The Need for Clean Energy Cities in China Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the by-products of burning fossil fuels to produce energy -- greenhouse gases -- have been accumulating in the atmosphere and are now known to be affecting the world’s climate. To avoid anthropogenic disasters from climate change, there is a widely accepted consensus that the increase in global temperature increase must be contained to within two degrees Celsius of pre-industrial levels. A recent study has shown that to achieve this goal, green house gas emissions will need to be cut by more than 50% worldwide over the next 40 years (Meinshausen et al, 2009). With its rapid social and economic transformation, China has now become the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, and forecasts almost guarantee that China will become an even bigger contributor to emissions in the future. Acknowledging this, as the world’s most populous developing country, China promised at the recent World Climate Summit in Copenhagen to reduce its carbon intensity (emissions per GDP unit) by up to 45% over the next 10 years. To achieve this goal, if it is even possible, will require significant efforts in all possible areas, making the institution of clean energy development strategies all the more urgent. Energy intensity is entwined with economic growth and development. Since late 1970s, China’s economic growth has been accelerating rapidly, reaching an annual growth rate of over 9% by 2008, a ten-fold increase since the 1980’s. In parallel, China’s energy consumption has increased 4.3 times over the same period, an average annual growth rate of 5.7%. This far exceeds the global average annual growth rate in energy demand, which grew only 1.4 times since the 1980’s, and annual increase of only 1.6% (RCSD, 2007). Making the Clean Energy City In China Year 2 Report Figure 1-1. The CO2 Emission Increase of China and USA Source: (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2010) Today, China contributes over 20% of annual world total greenhouse gas emissions, more than any other nation, having surpassed the USA in 2006 (Figure 1-1) (IEA, 2011). China is also projected to have the highest annual emissions growth rate of 2.8% over the next 20 years (EIA, 2009). Urbanization is both the manifestation and driver of economic growth and development. It is also a key driver of China’s carbon emissions because it is a highly energy intensive activity that is dominating China’s economy. Over the past two decades, the percentage of the population living in cities has grown from 26% to 47%, and this growth is projected to continue by at least 1% per year over the next twenty years (McKinsey, 2009). As discussed later in this report, urbanization massively increases energy consumption in several sectors, particularly construction, transportation and buildings. Furthermore, energy consumption stemming from these sectors is increasing much faster than other sectors of the economy.

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