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Study on Understanding the Causes of Biodiversity Loss and the Policy Assessment Framework European Commission Directorate-General for Environment Study on understanding the causes of biodiversity loss and the policy assessment framework In the context of the Framework Contract No. DG ENV/G.1/FRA/2006/0073 Specific Contract No. DG.ENV.G.1/FRA/2006/0073 Final Report Allister Slingenberg, Leon Braat, Henny van der Windt, Koen Rademaekers, Lisa Eichler, Kerry Turner Member of October 2009 Consortium Authors: Allister Slingenberg, ECORYS Leon Braat, Wageningen University / Alterra Henny van der Windt, Rijksuniversiteit Groningen (RUG) Lisa Eichler, ECORYS Kerry Turner, University of East Anglia Quality Control: Koen Rademaekers, ECORYS Contributing authors: Salim Morsy, ECORYS Associate Sil Boeve, ECORYS Disclaimer: all opinions formulated in this report have been made by ECORYS and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission. ECORYS Nederland BV P.O. Box 4175 3006 AD Rotterdam Watermanweg 44 3067 GG Rotterdam The Netherlands T +31 (0)10 453 88 00 F +31 (0)10 453 07 68 E [email protected] W www.ecorys.com Registration no. 24316726 ECORYS Macro & Sector Policies T +31 (0)10 453 87 53 F +31 (0)10 452 36 60 Table of contents Table of contents 3 List of Figures 7 List of Tables 11 Executive Summary 13 1 Introduction 17 1.1 Background 17 1.1.1 Context 17 1.1.2 Current state of play 18 1.1.3 The debate on economics and biodiversity in a nutshell 20 1.2 Current research on biodiversity loss 21 1.2.1 Latest biodiversity research and models 21 1.2.2 Biodiversity frameworks and assessments 23 1.3 Approach 25 2 Direct causes of biodiversity loss 29 2.1 Introduction 29 2.2 Land-use change 33 2.2.1 Agricultural expansion: growing food production in developing countries 34 2.2.2 Agricultural expansion: the case of biofuels 34 2.2.3 Infrastructure development 38 2.2.4 Deforestation 40 2.3 Pollution 42 2.3.1 Air pollution 42 2.3.2 Water pollution 42 2.3.3 Marine pollution from oil spills 43 2.4 Unsustainable natural resource use 47 2.4.1 Fisheries 47 2.4.2 Mining 49 2.4.3 Commercial wood extraction 51 2.5 Climate change 54 2.6 Invasive alien species 56 3 Biodiversity and the policy assessment framework 59 3.1 Introduction 59 Understanding the causes of biodiversity loss and the policy assessment framework 3 3.2 Economic drivers 59 3.2.1 Market failures 59 3.2.2 Economic structure, size and growth 60 3.2.3 Demand for ecosystem services 61 3.2.4 Macroeconomic factors 63 3.2.5 Trade-related biodiversity-loss 63 3.2.6 Technology 64 3.3 Demographic drivers 65 3.3.1 Population size 65 3.3.2 Public attitudes and individual behaviour 67 3.4 Institutional drivers 67 3.4.1 Property rights 68 3.4.2 Governance 71 3.4.3 Formal policies and their effects on biodiversity 73 3.5 Policy assessment applied: some examples 76 3.5.1 A closer look at the scaling mismatch and the effects of globalisation on biodiversity in coastal ecosystems 76 3.5.2 Likely future effects of increased biodiversity protection efforts 77 3.5.3 A case study of biodiversity implications of biofuels policies 83 4 Bottlenecks and solutions 87 4.1.1 A closer look at possible marine ecosystem specific bottlenecks and solutions 93 4.1.2 A closer look at the role of governance as a potential bottleneck 95 4.2 Conclusions and recommendations 99 5 Annex 1: Case studies on coastal ecosystems and biodiversity loss 101 5.1 Introduction 101 5.1.1 The DPSIR framework applied to coastal ecosystems 103 5.2 Case study 1a: Beach ecosystems in Italy 104 5.2.1 Management of beaches in Riviera del Beigua (Liguria) 107 5.3 Case study 1b: Mangrove ecosystems in Thailand 109 5.4 Case study 1c: Coastal wetlands in England, UK 114 5.4.1 Freshwater coastal wetlands: The Norfolk and Suffolk Broads 117 5.4.2 Saltmarsh ecosystems in coastal Eastern England, UK 123 6 Annex 2: Case studies on marine ecosystems and biodiversity loss 127 6.1 Introduction 127 6.2 Case study 2a: The North Sea 128 6.2.1 Direct causes of decrease of biodiversity 129 6.2.2 Underlying causes 131 6.2.3 Possible solutions 134 6.3 Case study 2b: the Coral Triangle 136 6.3.1 Direct causes of decrease of biodiversity 137 6.3.2 Underlying causes 138 6.3.3 Possible solutions 141 6.4 Case study 2c: the Arctic Ocean 142 6.4.1 Direct causes of decrease of biodiversity 143 6.4.2 Underlying causes 145 6.4.3 Possible solutions 148 7 Annex 3: Case studies on forest ecosystems and biodiversity loss 151 7.1 Case study 3a: the Congo Basin 157 7.1.1 Direct causes of deforestation 158 7.1.2 Underlying causes of deforestation 162 7.1.3 Actors and policy framework 175 7.1.4 Possible solutions 176 7.2 Case study 3b: the Amazon forest ecosystem 177 7.2.1 Direct causes of deforestation 178 7.2.2 Underlying causes of deforestation 183 7.2.3 Actors and policy framework 188 7.2.4 Possible solutions 189 7.3 Case study 3c: Forest ecosystems in Tanzania 190 7.3.1 Direct causes of biodiversity loss 191 7.3.2 Underlying causes of biodiversity loss 191 7.3.3 Actors and policy framework 192 7.3.4 Possible solutions 196 8 Bibliography 199 Understanding the causes of biodiversity loss and the policy assessment framework 5 List of Figures Figure 1.1 Mapping the link between biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human wellbeing 18 Figure 1.2 Worldwide depiction of threatened biodiversity hotspots 19 Figure 1.3 Trends in biodiversity from 1700-2050 19 Figure 1.4 Global biodiversity hotspots and development levels 20 Figure 1.5 The drivers-pressures-states-impacts-responses (DPSIR) framework applied to biodiversity 24 Figure 1.6 DPSIR framework with examples 25 Figure 1.7 Linking non-policy and policy-related causes of biodiversity loss 26 Figure 1.8 Socioeconomic biodiversity pressures and drivers – a conceptual model 27 Figure 1.9 Overview of the direct and underlying causes of biodiversity loss and the policy assessment framework 28 Figure 2.1 Loss of biodiversity with continued agricultural expansion, pollution, climate change and infrastructure development 29 Figure 2.2 Development of mean species abundance worldwide in the baseline scenario from 2000 to 2050 and the contribution to this decline from various environmental pressures 30 Figure 2.3 The relative significance of different direct causes for projected biodiversity loss in South East Asia, 2000-2050 (GLOBIO 3.0). 31 Figure 2.4 Main direct drivers of change in biodiversity and ecosystems 32 Figure 2.5 General biofuel pathway with inputs and environmental impacts 36 Figure 2.6 Example of displacement mechanism causing indirect deforestation 37 Figure 2.7 Large tanker spills since 1984 44 Figure 2.8 Spawning biomass of Atlantic bluefin tuna, measured until 2007 (blue) and extrapolated till 2012 (red) 48 Figure 2.9 International trade of forest products 52 Figure 2.10 Woodfuel consumption in Africa 54 Figure 3.1 Economic worldwide benefits coming from biodiversity 62 Figure 3.2 Relationships among representative intermediate services, final services and benefits 63 Figure 3.3 Possible policy effects of trade on biodiversity in developing countries 64 Figure 3.4 Projected population growth 2000-2030 66 Figure 3.5 Worldwide protected area for 2009 and additional protected area according to biodiversity scenario for 2030 79 Figure 3.6 Congo basin countries: current protected area (2009) and additional protected area according to biodiversity scenario for 2030 with MODIS forest cover (2004) 80 Figure 3.7 Effects of biodiversity scenarios under BAU1 scenario without incentive payments on deforestation rates in the 6 Congo Basin Understanding the causes of biodiversity loss and the policy assessment framework 7 countries considering versus not considering projected protection areas, 2010, 2020 and 2030 81 Figure 3.8 Effects of protected area on avoided deforestation (forest cover loss in percent) in the Congo Basin for 2030 82 Figure 3.9 Sources for bioethanol and biodiesel production in Europe by 2020 84 Figure 4.1 Worldwide percentage of protected versus non-protected forest area by forest type 98 Figure 4.2 Illegal logging and corruption linkage worldwide 98 Figure 5.1 Classification of coastal and marine ecosystem services 102 Figure 5.2 DPSIR for coastal ecosystems 103 Figure 5.3 Key anthropogenic pressures on sandy beaches 105 Figure 5.4 Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework applied to beach ecosystems 106 Figure 5.5 Marginal benefits of retaining and converting natural habitats, expressed as Net Present Value in 2000 US$/ha 112 Figure 5.6 Driving forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework applied to wetlands 116 Figure 5.7 Direct and indirect pressures and related use conflicts in the Broads 117 Figure 6.1 North Sea fish stocks, UK, spawning stock biomass for three fish species (thousand tonnes) 129 Figure 6.2 Trends in spawning cod biomass and in fishing mortality 130 Figure 6.3 Arctic Sea ice extent (2007) 144 Figure 6.4 Arctic Sea ice extent (2009) 145 Figure 7.1 Number of native tree species per country 152 Figure 7.2 Designated forest functions, globally, 2005 (%) 152 Figure 7.3 Trends in forest area by region, 1990-2005 (million hectares) 155 Figure 7.4 Forests designated for conservation, 1990-2005 (million hectares) 156 Figure 7.5 Number of native tree species in Africa 158 Figure 7.6 Woodfuel consumption in Africa 160 Figure 7.7: Estimated deforestation rates in the 6 Congo Basin countries for 2010, 2020 and 2030 for BAU 1 Scenario (A) and BAU 2 Scenario (B) without incentive payments (business as usual under constant governance) 168 Figure 7.8: Effects of incentive payment (carbon price in USD/tC) on deforestation rates in the Congo basin (6 countries)
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