The Cost of Highway Limitations and Traffic Delay to Oregon’s Economy Prepared for: Oregon Business Council and Portland Business Alliance In cooperation with: Associated Oregon Industries Port of Portland Oregon Department of Transportation Westside Economic Alliance Prepared by: March 20, 2007 Table of Contents Acknowledgements ............................................................................................... ii Introduction............................................................................................................1 1.1 Motivation: Economic Competitiveness............................................................1 1.2 Study Focus: Highway Travel Delay.................................................................2 1.3 Organization of the Report.................................................................................3 Transportation Role in the State Economy .........................................................4 2.1 Gateway and Transcontinental Facilities...........................................................4 2.2 Jobs in Transportation-Related Industries .........................................................7 2.3 Jobs in Transport-Reliant “Traded Industries” ................................................10 2.4 Key Findings from Oregon Business Profile...................................................12 Business Interviews..............................................................................................14 3.1 Introduction to Business Interviews.................................................................14 3.2 Interview Synopses ..........................................................................................17 3.3 Interview Conclusions .....................................................................................33 Travel Conditions.................................................................................................37 4.1 Profile of Current Travel Congestion ..............................................................37 4.2 Scenarios for Future Travel Conditions...........................................................39 4.3 Future Base Case Scenario...............................................................................40 4.4 Improved System Scenario ..............................................................................43 4.5 Travel Impact Conclusions ..............................................................................45 Economic Impacts................................................................................................46 5.1 Types of Economic Impacts and Benefit Measures.........................................46 5.2 Traveler Savings from Improved System Scenario .........................................48 5.3 Market Access and Competitiveness Impacts..................................................52 5.4 Overall Economic Impact ................................................................................55 Appendix: Analysis Models.................................................................................60 The Cost of Highway Limitations and Traffic Delay to Oregon’s Economy Page i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was conducted by Economic Development Research Group, Inc., for the Oregon Business Council and the Portland Business Alliance. Groups assisting this study via either direct funding assistance or in-kind assistance included Associated Oregon Industries, the Port of Portland, Oregon Department of Transportation and the Westside Economic Alliance. Oregon DOT played a major role in providing travel demand and traffic forecasting analysis for areas of the state outside of the Portland area. Metro supplied travel demand and traffic forecasting for the Portland area, as part of an earlier companion study that focused just on the cost of congestion to that region. The study was overseen and reviewed by a committee comprised of Marion Haynes representing the Oregon Business Council and Portland Business Alliance, Susie Lahsene of the Port of Portland and a team from Oregon Dept. of Transportation including: Brian Gregor and Becky Knudson. The consultant team conducting this study and writing this report consisted of Glen Weisbrod, Susan Moses, Tyler Comings and Brian Baird. The study built on new transportation models and forecasts developed by ODOT’s Travel Research and Modeling Services staff, especially Brian Gregor. The consultant team and review committee are also grateful to the many individuals and businesses who were interviewed and provided data for this report. All findings and conclusions in this report are those of the study authors and are not necessarily the positions of the study sponsors. Any errors in this report are the responsibility of the consultant team. The Cost of Highway Limitations and Traffic Delay to Oregon’s Economy Page ii Chapter 1 – Introduction 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Motivation: Economic Competitiveness As the state of Oregon moves further into the 21st century, it becomes important to understand the need for transportation facilities to keep up with changes occurring in the region’s population and business base. The stakes can be high. Failure to provide a well-functioning transportation system can potentially reduce the quality of life for Oregon residents and reduce the competitiveness of the state for attracting business investment. Those factors directly affect future job growth and income for Oregon residents, as well as the income tax base to pay for other essential services. To examine these issues, the Oregon Business Council sponsored this study in cooperation with the Portland Business Alliance, Port of Portland and Oregon Department of Transportation. This report examines the nature of overall traffic conditions and congestion within Oregon and how they are forecast to change over the next 25 years. It also assesses the impact that transportation infrastructure improvements (or lack thereof) can have on business productivity, competitiveness and growth. This 2007 report, The Cost of Highway Limitations and Traffic Delay to Oregon’s Economy, is a companion to the November 2005 report called Cost of Congestion to the Economy of the Portland Region. That earlier report examined how transportation congestion in the Portland region is affecting business operations and costs, and can ultimately limit the future competitive position of that region The report seeks to address two questions: • How do transportation infrastructure improvements, or lack of improvements, affect costs to Oregon residents and businesses, and the ability of existing Oregon businesses to compete nationally and globally? • How do transportation infrastructure improvements, or lack of improvements, affect jobs and income generated in Oregon? By addressing these questions, this report seeks to provide a context for better understanding the economic and jobs impact for the next generation of public investments in transportation system upgrades, and the risks associated with failure to make those investments. The Cost of Highway Limitations and Traffic Delay to Oregon’s Economy Page 1 Chapter 1 – Introduction 1.2 Study Focus: Highway Travel Delay At the outset, it should be clear that transportation involves a wide variety of modes, including pedestrian, bicycle, bus, light rail, train, car, truck, motorcycle, air and marine travel. These modes serve a broad range of purposes, including health and recreation, shopping and personal business, commuting, freight deliveries and business trips. All modes and purposes are important to consider in broad-based transportation planning. However, from the perspective of maintaining a vibrant and competitive state economy, it is appropriate to focus in on the most directly applicable and critical issues affecting business activity. This leads to two key observations: • Congestion and travel delay occurs when ground transportation system demand is high relative to its capacity, design and connectivity. Traffic conditions can get worse over time as traffic levels grow to exceed road capacity, causing both slowdown and traffic incident delays. However, traffic problems can also grow due to limitations of existing road system features (such road curves and bridge weight limitations) that requires large buses and trucks to go long distances out of their way. In addition, the shifting location and shipping requirements of businesses can also make the current transportation system insufficient to meet the needs of emerging new shipping and travel patterns. • Highway traffic delays affect most all forms of passenger and freight vehicular movement. Many means of motorized travel -- buses, streetcars, cars, trucks and motorcycles – depend directly on the state’s system of roads and highways. Yet even for modes that do not drive on roads – such as light rail, trains, airplanes and ships – the passengers and freight that they carry require travel on the road system for access to and from a train terminal, intermodal rail transfer facility, airport Congestion Effects are Broad or marine port. Therefore, travel by all modes is Traffic conditions affect ground access for air, sea and important to consider insofar as all modes are rail transportation, as well as affected to some degree by sufficiency of the car, bus and truck movement. state’s highway network. • Not all modes are substitutes. Where trains or buses are available, they can offer a substitute for cars in serving some commuting and personal travel (and sometimes even business travel),