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The Scientific Rationality of Early Statistics, 1833–1877
The Scientific Rationality of Early Statistics, 1833–1877 Yasuhiro Okazawa St Catharine’s College This dissertation is submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. November 2018 Declaration Declaration This dissertation is the result of my own work and includes nothing which is the outcome of work done in collaboration except as declared in the Preface and specified in the text. It is not substantially the same as any that I have submitted, or, is being concurrently submitted for a degree or diploma or other qualification at the University of Cambridge or any other University or similar institution except as declared in the Preface and specified in the text. I further state that no substantial part of my dissertation has already been submitted, or, is being concurrently submitted for any such degree, diploma or other qualification at the University of Cambridge or any other University or similar institution except as declared in the Preface and specified in the text It does not exceed the prescribed word limit of 80,000 words for the Degree Committee of the Faculty of History. Yasuhiro Okazawa 13 November 2018 i Thesis Summary The Scientific Rationality of Early Statistics, 1833–1877 Yasuhiro Okazawa Summary This thesis examines the activities of the Statistical Society of London (SSL) and its contribution to early statistics—conceived as the science of humans in society—in Britain. The SSL as a collective entity played a crucial role in the formation of early statistics, as statisticians envisaged early statistics as a collaborative scientific project and prompted large-scale observation, which required cooperation among numerous statistical observers. -
Theodor M. Porter Trust Un Numbers, 1995, Princeton
TRUST IN NUMBERS This page intentionally left blank TRUST IN NUMBERS THE PURSUIT OF OBJECTIVITY IN SCIENCE AND PUBLIC LIFE Theodore M. Porter PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS PRINCETON,NEW JERSEY Copyright 1995 by Princeton University Press Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540 In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, Chichester, West Sussex All Rights Reserved. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Porter, Theodore, 1953– Trust in numbers : the pursuit of objectivity in science and public life / Theodore M. Porter. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-691-03776-0 1. Science—Social aspects. 2. Objectivity. I. Title. Q175.5.P67 1995 306.4′5—dc20 94-21440 This book has been composed in Galliard Princeton University Press books are printed on acid-free paper and meet the guidelines for permanence and durability of the Committee on Production Guidelines for Book Longevity of the Council on Library Resources 13579108642 Contents Preface vii Acknowledgments xiii Introduction Cultures of Objectivity 3 PART I: POWER IN NUMBERS 9 Chapter One A World of Artifice 11 Chapter Two How Social Numbers Are Made Valid 33 Chapter Three Economic Measurement and the Values of Science 49 Chapter Four The Political Philosophy of Quantification 73 PART II: TECHNOLOGIES OF TRUST 87 Chapter Five Experts against Objectivity: Accountants and Actuaries 89 Chapter Six French State Engineers and the Ambiguities of Technocracy 114 Chapter Seven U.S. Army Engineers and the Rise of Cost-Benefit Analysis 148 PART III: POLITICAL AND SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITIES 191 Chapter Eight Objectivity and the Politics of Disciplines 193 Chapter Nine Is Science Made by Communities? 217 Notes 233 Bibliography 269 Index 303 This page intentionally left blank Preface SCIENCE is commonly regarded these days with a mixture of admiration and fear. -
Selected Books and Papers on Actuarial History and Pioneers 1 Mainly by UK Actuarial Profession Members (Listed by Year of Publication, Most Recent First)
Selected books and papers on actuarial history and pioneers 1 mainly by UK actuarial profession members (listed by year of publication, most recent first) 2009 Holland, David. Reinsurance: a brief history. [based on fuller paper: A brief history of reinsurance – below] [RKN: 44421] The Actuary (2009) April : online only Abstract: The author explores the evolution of reinsurance from its maritime origins to the present day. URL: http://www.the-actuary.org.uk Holland, David. A brief history of reinsurance. [RKN: 44422] Reinsurance News (2009) February : online only Abstract: The author explores the evolution of reinsurance from its maritime origins to the present day. URL: http://www.soa.org/library/newsletters/reinsurance-section-news/2009/february/rsn-2009-iss65.pdf Fulcher, Graham. A brief history of insurance. [RKN: 38964] The Actuary (2009) March : 28-29 Abstract: Graham Fulcher explores the evolution of risk sharing in non-life insurance over the past 4000 years. URL: http://www.the-actuary.org.uk MacDougall, Laura. – History: an equitable life. [William Morgan] [RKN: 69708] The Actuary (2009) May : online only Abstract: Laura MacDougall looks back on the life of William Morgan FRS (1750-1833), one of the early pioneers of actuarial science. URL: http://www.the-actuary.org.uk Lewin, Christopher G. – History: The curious case of Samuel Brown [RKN: 69705] Abstract: Chris Lewin looks at how different actuarial recruitment practice was in 1850. The Actuary (2009) May : online only URL: http://www.the-actuary.org.uk Lewin, Christopher G. – Book review: Vital Statistics: Vital Statistics: a memorial volume of selections from reports and writings, by William Farr, first published in 1885. -
Economics, Politics and Philosophy
ECONOMICS, POLITICS AND PHILOSOPHY Peter Harrington london We are exhibiting at these fairs 4–7 October 2018 frieze masters Regent’s Park, London frieze.com/fairs/frieze-masters 14–15 October seattle Seattle Antiquarian Book Fair Seattle Center Exhibition Hall Seattle, WA www.seattlebookfair.com 3–4 November chelsea Chelsea Old Town Hall Kings Road, London www.chelseabookfair.com 16–18 November boston Boston International Antiquarian Book Fair Hynes Convention Center Boston, MA bostonbookfair.com 30 November–2 December hong kong China in Print Hong Kong Maritime Museum www.chinainprint.com VAT no. gb 701 5578 50 Peter Harrington Limited. Registered office: WSM Services Limited, Connect House, 133–137 Alexandra Road, Wimbledon, London SW19 7JY. Registered in England and Wales No: 3609982 Coin illustrations from Ordonnance et instrvction, item 59. Design: Nigel Bents; Photography: Ruth Segarra. Peter Harrington london catalogue 146 ECONOMICS, POLITICS AND PHILOSOPHY All items from this catalogue are on display at Dover Street Dover St opening hours: 10am–7pm Monday–Friday; 10am–6pm Saturday mayfair chelsea Peter Harrington Peter Harrington 43 dover street 100 FulHam road london w1s 4FF london sw3 6Hs uk 020 3763 3220 uk 020 7591 0220 eu 00 44 20 3763 3220 eu 00 44 20 7591 0220 usa 011 44 20 3763 3220 www.peterharrington.co.uk usa 011 44 20 7591 0220 well-known to many of the key figures of the German Romantic movement, who often met each other at her Berlin salon: regulars included Friedrich Gentz, Motte Fouqué, Schlegel, Schelling, and Steffens. She was introduced to Goethe in 1795. -
Centenary Assembly 1948
CENTENARY ASSEMBLY 1948 EXHIBITION CATALOGUE A EXHIBITION CATALOGUE INSTITUTE OF ACTUARIES 184.8-1948 EXHIBITION ILLUSTRATING THE HISTORY OF ACTUARIAL SCIENCE IN GREAT BRITAIN WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THE INSTITUTE OF ACTUARIES CATALOGUE INSTITUTE OF ACTUARIES CENTENARY ASSEMBLY, 21st—25th JUNE, 1948 The Exhibition will be held in the Museum and the Council Chamber on the first floor of the Hall of the Chartered Insurance Institute, 20 Aldermanbury, London, E.C.2, and will be open at the following times:— Tuesday, 22nd June, 1948 2 p.m. to 5 p.m. Wednesday, 23rd June, 1948 9.30 a.m. to 12.30 p.m. Thursday, 24th June, 1948 9.30 a.m. to 12.30 p.m. and 2.30 p.m. to 4.30 p.m. Friday, 25th June, 1948 9.30 a.m. to 12.30 p.m. FOREWORD THE EXHIBITION has been arranged in the belief that those present at the Centenary Assembly of the Institute of Actuaries would be interested to have in one view exhibits illustrating the various strands that together make the Institute what she is. The exhibition is not complete : within the available space we can only illustrate the story of the past, but we trust that the exhibition, and this catalogue of it, may serve as some guide to any who may wish to read that story. The exhibition relates primarily to the Institute of Actuaries. An important part of the field is represented by the sister body, the Faculty of Actuaries, which was formed in Edinburgh in 1856. We take this opportunity to thank all those who have lent exhibits, especially Mr. -
1 Babbage Among the Insurers
Babbage among the insurers: big nineteenth-century data and the public interest1 Daniel C.S. Wilson 1.Introduction Towards the end of a long life spent in the collection of mortality data, Thomas Rowe Edmonds (1802-1889) entered his own senescence in ill-health and suddenly feared for his financial provision. Despite having served as actuary of the Legal and General Life Assurance company for twenty-eight years -- a company which had grown rich on the sale of insurance policies to those Victorians with the foresight and good sense to take them out -- its own planner-in-chief seemed not to have taken the very steps in his own life that his firm urged so incessantly upon the public at large. In the course of the nineteenth century, financial services developed significantly with many new specialist roles emerging. But as late as the 1860s, an actuary still provided a uniquely complex function of oversight, with singular responsibility for the health of their company’s finances. After successfully stewarding the Legal and General through three decades of recurring crises in the industry as a whole, Edmonds found himself in the strange position of writing nervously to his employers about one final risk: ‘I hope that I may not be considered unreasonable in asking for some kind of promise that in case of failing health or other unavoidable cause of retirement’, such an ‘injurious’ scenario would not jeopardise the proper ‘allowance or pension bestowed on me in respect of the length of my services as actuary 28 years’ (Edmonds, 1865). The nature of this request for sympathy – for ‘some kind of promise’ – was precisely the kind of awkward personal pleading that insurance, by virtue of its formal contract, was supposed to render unnecessary. -
Governing the Computers: the London Stock Exchange, the Institute of Actuaries and the First Digital Revolution (1808-1875)
Governing the Computers: The London Stock Exchange, the Institute of Actuaries and the First Digital Revolution (1808-1875) Marc Flandreau & Geoffroy Legentilhomme1 February 2019 Abstract: Our paper proposes an economic history of scientific knowledge, focusing on financial mathematics. We show how the traditional tools of institutional and industrial economics can help make sense of the dynamic of knowledge production. We look at the history of actuarial science in the 19th century, which played an important role in the history of capitalism, as it provided the tools to calculate the returns on heteroclite financial instruments, facilitating comparison, trading and in the end, the expansion of the capital market. We explain the development of actuarial science and of the profession of actuary in England as a product of the need to resolve information asymmetries and widespread computational anxieties which was read by contemporaries as a looming tragedy of the commons. This context gave birth to an institution, the Institute of Actuaries, which rapidly imposed itself as the sole provider of legitimate financial calculus. This was done by developing a dual program that involved the production of human “computers” that were equipped with “software” in the shape of algorithms to which use the computers were trained. The final outcome was what we call a “government of calculus”, in the shape of a monopoly over the production and distribution of financial knowledge. The success of the Institute and the economies of scale in knowledge production it could generate in virtue of its dominant position, eventually resulted in significant productivity gains in financial computing but also in imposing new standards such as an early statement of the rational expectations hypothesis. -
Benjamin Gompertz, 1779-1865 203
BENJAMIN GOMPERTZ, 1779-1865 203 BENJAMIN GOMPERTZ 5 March 1779-14 July 1865 To mathematicians, the death of Benjamin Gompertz 100 years ago represented the passing,of an era, Gompertz has been described (24)as ‘the last of the learned Newtonians’; out of respect for the memory of Newton he continued to use the old language of fluxions until his death, by which time it had been obsolete in the English mathematical world for nearly half a century, To the actuarial profession, however, Gompertz’s paper of 1825, in which he propounded his well-known ‘law’ of mortality, marked the beginning of a new era, not merely because his formula was, for several reasons, an enormous improvement on others which had been suggested previously (see Assce. Mag. and J.I.A. 13, 14) but because it opened up a new approach to the life table. Previously, the table had been regarded as little more than a record of the number of persons surviving to succes- sive integral ages out of a given number alive at an earlier age; Gompertz introduced the idea that lx was a function connected by a mathematical relationship with a continuously operating force of mortality. A memoir of Gompertz was written shortly after his death by his friend M. N. Adler.(23)The author of the present note owes much to Adler’s memoir and to the other sources in the appended list. Benjamin Gompertz, a member of a distinguished Jewish family, was born on 5 March 1779 in London, where his father and grandfather had been successful diamond merchants. -
Guicciardini N the Development
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEWTONIAN CALCULUS IN BRITAIN 1700-1800 NICCOLO GUICCIARDINI The right o/the Un;",rsiljl 0/ Cambridge 10 print (lIId sell 011 monner 0/ boob WQS granted by Henry Vlllm ISJ4. T'Iu! Uni~rsi')! Iws printed and published continuously since "84. CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS Cambridge New York Port Chester Melbourne Sydney PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE The Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 2RU, UK 40 West 20th Street, New York NY 10011-4211, USA 477 Williamstown Road, Port Melbourne, VIC 3207, Australia Ruiz de Alarcon 13,28014 Madrid, Spain Dock House, The Waterfront, Cape Town 800 I, South Africa http://www.cambridge.org © Cambridge University Press 1989 This book is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 1989 First paperback edition 2002 A catalogue record/or this book is available/rom the British Library Library 0/ Congress Cataloguing in Publication data Guicciardini, Niccolo. The development of Newtonian calculus in Britain 1700-1800 I Niccolo Guicciardini. p. cm. Originally presented as the author's thesis (Ph. D.-Council for National Academic Awards, 1987) Bibliography: p. Includes index. ISBN 0521 364663 I. Calculus - Great Britain - History - 18th century. I. Title. QA303.G94 1989 515'.0941'09033-dc20 89-7085 CIP ISBN 0 521 36466 3 hardback ISBN 0521 524849 paperback CONTENTS Introduction vii OVERTURE: NEWTON'S PUBLISHED WORK ON THE CALCULUS OF FLUXIONS I P ART I: THE EARLY PERIOD 9 I THE DIFFUSION OF THE CALCULUS (1700-30) II 1.1 Early initiates' 12 1.2 Textbook writers 13 1.3 The teaching of the calculus in the universities 18 2 DEVELOPMENTS IN THE CALCULUS OF FLUXIONS (1714-33) 28 2. -
DAVID RICARDO John E
Great Thinkers in Economics Series Series Editor: A.P. Thirlwall is Professor of Applied Economics, University of Kent, UK. Great Thinkers in Economics is designed to illuminate the economics of some of the great historical and contemporary economists by exploring the interactions between their lives and work, and the events surrounding them. The books are brief and written in a style that makes them not only of interest to professional economists but also intelligible for students of economics and the interested lay person. Titles include: Esben Sloth Anderson JOSEPH A. SCHUMPETER William J. Barber GUNNAR MYRDAL Paul Davidson JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES Gordon Fletcher DENNIS ROBERTSON Peter D. Groenewegen ALFRED MARSHALL G.C. Harcourt and Prue Kerr JOAN ROBINSON Gavin Kennedy ADAM SMITH John E. King DAVID RICARDO John E. King NICHOLAS KALDOR Julio Lopez and Michaël Assous MICHAL KALECKI Paul Mosley and Barbara Ingham SIR ARTHUR LEWIS Alessandro Roncaglia PIERO SRAFFA James Ronald Stanfield and Jacqueline Bloom Stanfield JOHN KENNETH GALBRAITH Michael Szenberg and Lall Ramrattan FRANCO MODIGLIANI Forthcoming titles include: Nahid Aslanbeigui and Guy Oakes ARTHUR C.PIGOU Robert Dimand JAMES TOBIN Albert Jolink JAN TINBERGEN Warren Young and Esteban Perez ROY HARROD Great Thinkers in Economics Series Standing Order ISBN 978–1–403–98555–2 (Hardback) 978–1–403–98556–9 (Paperback) (outside North America only) You can receive future titles in this series as they are published by placing a standing order. Please contact your bookseller or, in case of difficulty, write to us at the address below with your name and address, the title of the series and one of the ISBNs quoted above. -
The Demography of Victorian England and Wales
5 The laws of vitality the laws of vitality are the central points of the science of medicine, and . it is only through observations on collective vitality that any precise or numerical knowledge can be obtained representing the laws of individual vitality. The only sure index of the practical success of the science of medicine is in the increase of collective vitality, or in the diminution of collective mortality, without reference to particular diseases.1 Like many of his statistician and actuary colleagues – especially Benjamin Gompertz and T. R. Edmonds – William Farr believed not only that certain ‘laws of vitality’ existed, but that they could be described precisely. What Farr called ‘laws’ we would now refer to as persistent and general regularities in the structure of mortality. For example, what has come to be known as ‘Farr’s law’ is concerned with the relationship between death rates and population density, while Gompertz and Edmonds are associated with the link between mortality and age, and to some extent sickness and age. Both Gompertz’s ‘one uniform law of mortality from birth to extreme old age’ and Farr’s law provide useful pegs on which to hang a general discussion of the structure and varia- tions in mortality in Victorian England and Wales, especially in terms of the ways they were influenced by age and environment. This will also require us to take some account of other rather less law-like regularities in mortality patterns, such as the role of gender. The question of occupa- tional and social variations in mortality will be left to chapter 6 and the ‘laws of disease’ will reappear in chapter 8. -
Pediatric and Congenital Cardiac Care
Paul R. Barach Je ery P. Jacobs Steven E. Lipshultz Peter C. Laussen Editors Pediatric and Congenital Cardiac Care Volume 1: Outcomes Analysis 123 Pediatric and Congenital Cardiac Care Paul R. Barach • Jeffery P. Jacobs Steven E. Lipshultz • Peter C. Laussen Editors Pediatric and Congenital Cardiac Care Volume 1: Outcomes Analysis Editors Paul R. Barach Steven E. Lipshultz School of Medicine Wayne State University University of Oslo Detroit, MI Oslo USA Norway Peter C. Laussen Jeffery P. Jacobs The Hospital for Sick Children Division of Cardiac Surgery Toronto, ON Department of Surgery Canada Johns Hopkins All Children’s Heart Institute, All Children’s Hospital and Florida Hospital for Children Johns Hopkins University Saint Petersburg, Tampa and Orlando, FL USA Division of Cardiac Surgery Department of Surgery Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, MD USA ISBN 978-1-4471-6586-6 ISBN 978-1-4471-6587-3 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4471-6587-3 Springer London Heidelberg New York Dordrecht Library of Congress Control Number: 2014956025 © Springer-Verlag London 2015 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifi cally the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfi lms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. Exempted from this legal reservation are brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis or material supplied specifi cally for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work.