HISTORY OF ACTUARIAL SCIENCE

Edited by STEVEN HABERMAN and TREVOR A. SIBBETT

VOLUME I Life Tables and Survival Model Part 1

154

LONDON WILLIAM PICKERING 1995 VOLUME I CONTENTS

Preface xvii The History of Actuarial Science v xix

1. 200 Domitius Ulpianus, Ulpian's Table 1 2. 1657 Company of Parish Clerks, London's Dreadful Visitation 7 3. 1662 John Graunt, Natural and Political Observations upon the Bills of Mortality 23 4. 1669 Christiaan and Ludwig Huygens, Extracts from Letters 129 5. 1671 Johande Witt, Value of Life Annuities 144 6. 1693 Edmund HaWey, An Estimate of the Degrees of the Mortality of Mankind 165 7. 1709 Nicholas Bernoulli, De Usu Artis Conjectandi injure 185 8. 1737 John Smart, A Letter to George Heathcote re Tables of Bills of Mortality 197 9. 1740 Nicholas Struyck, Appendix to Introduction to General Geography 207 10. 1746 Antoine Deparcieux, Table XIII from Essay on the Probabilities of the Duration of Human Life 243 11. 1761 Thomas Watkins, A Letter to William Brakenridge re the Terms and Period of Human Life 251 VOLUME I I CONTENTS

1. 1760 Leonhard Euler, A General Investigation into the Mortality and Multiplication of Human Species 1 2. 1766 Pehr Wargentin, Mortality in Sweden 11 3. 1783 , Observations on Reversionary Payments 39 4. 1793 Edward Wigglesworth, A Table shewing the Expectation of Life in the States of Massachusetts and New Hampshire 71 5. 1815 Joshua Milne, A Treatise on the Valuation of Annuities and Assurances 79 6. 1825 , On the Nature of the Function expressive of the Law of Human Mortality 119 7. 1826 Thomas Young, A Formula for expressing the Decrement of Human Life 192 8. 1829 John Finlaison, A Report on Life Annuities 217 9. 1832 , Life Tables founded upon the Discovery of a Numerical Law 286 10. 1833 Francis Corbaux, On the Natural and Mathematical Laws concerning Population, Vitality, and Mortality 292 11. 1838 Augustus de Morgan, An Essay on Probabilities 313 12. 1859 William Makeham, On the Law of Mortality and the Construction of Annuity Tables 324 13. 1870 Ludvig Oppermann, On the Graduation of Life Tables 335 14. 1875 Wilhelm Lexis, Diagram from Introduction to the Theory of Population Statistics 355 15. 1877 Wilhelm Lexis, On the Theory of Mass Distribution in Human Society 359

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CONTENTS

1. 1725 Abraham De Moivre, Annuities on Lives 1 2. 1727 Richard Hayes, A New Method for Valuing of Annuities upon Lives 126 3. 1738 Abraham De Moivre, The Doctrine of Chances 133 4. 1742 Thomas Simpson, The Doctrine of Annuities and Reversions 138 5. 1752 Thomas Simpson, Select Exercises for Young Proficients in the Mathematicks 146 6. 1755 James Dodson, The Mathematical Repository, Vol.111 156 7. 1771 Richard Price, Observations on Reversionary Payments 163

VII VOLUME IV CONTENTS

1. 1772 William Dale, Calculations deduced from First Principles . . 1 2. 1777 William Dale, Supplement to Calculations of the Value of Annuities 19 3. 1785 Johannes Nikolaus Tetens, Introduction to the Calculation of Life Annuities 29 4. 1785 Johannes Nikolaus Tetens, On the Tetens Mortality Curve 44 5. 1810 , The Doctrine of Life-Annuities and Assurances 48 6. 1825 Griffith Davies, Tables of Life Contingencies 59 7. 1843 David Jones, On the Value of Annuities and Reversionary Payments 69 8. 1859 Augustus de Morgan, On a Property of M. Gompertz 'sLaw of Mortality 7 3 9. 1863 August Zillmer, Contributions to the theory of Premium Reserves for Life Companies 79 10. 1869 Karl Hattendorf, The Risk with Life Assurance 107 11. 1869 Wesley Stoker Barker Woolhouse, On an Improved Theory of Annuities and Assurances 123 12. 1889 J0rgen Pederson Gram, Standard Deviation in the Value of Life Assurances 157 13. 1898 George King et al., The Universal Notation 184 14. 1905 George James Lidstone, Changes in Pure Premium Policy- Values 199 15. 1910 J0rgen Pederson Gram, Professor Thiele as 235

VIII VOLUME V CONTENTS

1. 1654 Laurens Tonti, Edict of the King for the Creation of the Society of the Royal Tontine 1 2. 1674 Thomas Wagstaffe, Proposals for Subscriptions of Money 19 3. 1706 John Hartley, A tetter for a Perpetual Assurance 29 4. 1715 The Friendly Society, Land Security for establishing a Perpetual Insurance on Lives 39 5. 1756 James Dodson, First Lectures on Insurance 79 6. 1762 Edward Rowe Mores, A short Account of the Society for Equitable Assurances on Lives and Survivorships 145 7. 1776 William Morgan, Surplus Stock of the Equitable Society 174 8. 1779 William Morgan, The Doctrine of Annuities and Assurances on Lives 181 9. 1814 Pennsylvania Company, An Address from the President and Directors 221 10. 1844 Arthur Morgan, First Report of the Select Committee on Joint Stock Companies 267 11. 1858 Thomas Bond Sprague, On certain Methods of dividing the Surplus among the Assured in a Life Assurance Company 273 12. 1863 Sheppard Homans, On the Equitable Distribution of Surplus 287 13. 1865 James Meikle, An Analysis of the Profits of Life Assurance 299 14. 1874 Thomas Bond Sprague, A Treatise on Life Assurance Accounts 379

IX 15. 1874 George Humphreys, On the Practice of the Eagle Company 431 16. 1907 Charles Ronald Vauldrey Coutts, Bonus Reserve Valuations 445 17. 1919 Oscar H. Rogers and Arthur Hunter, Numerical Ratings 455 VOLUME VI CONTENTS

1. 1748 Alexander Webster, Calculations with the Principles and Data on which they are instituted 1 2. 1759 Trustees of the Fund, An Account of the rise and Nature of the Fund 29 3. 1772 Francis Maseres, A Proposal for Establishing Life-Annuities in Parishes 33 4. 1822 Anonymous, Observations on the Superannuation Fund 101 5. 1902 Henry William Manly, On the Valuation of Staff Pension Funds 169 6. 1909 James John M'Lauchlan, The Fundamental Principles of Pension Funds 251

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CONTENTS

1. 1698 John Castaing, The Course of the Exchange and Other Things , _. 1 2. 1731 Stephen Daubuz, Broker's List of Stock Prices 4 3. 1863 Arthur Hutcheson Bailey, On the Principles on which the Funds of Life Assurance Societies should be Invested 6 4. 1900 Louis BacheYier^Theoty of Speculation 15 5. 1909 D. P. Moll, On the Effect of a Rise, or Fall, in Market Values of Securities on the Financial Position and Reserves of a Life Office 79 6. 1747 Corbyn Morris, An Essay towards illustrating the Science of Insurance 85 7. 1859 Carl B. Bremiker, On the Risk attaching to the Grant of Life Assurances 162 8. 1909 Filip Lundberg, On the Theory of Reinsurance 191 9. 1914 Albert H. Mowbray, How Extensive a Payroll Exposure is necessary to give a dependable Pure Premium 246 10. 1917 Albert W. Whitney, The Theory of Experience Rating 256

XII VOLUME VIII CONTENTS

1. 1760 Daniel Bernoulli, A new Analysis of the Mortality caused by Smallpox -- 1 2. 1772 John Heinrich Lambert. The Mortality of Smallpox in Children 39 3. 1806 Emmanuel Etienne Duvillard, Analysis and Tables of the Influence of Smallpox on Mortality 55 4. 1843 Antoine-Augustin Cournot, Exposition of the Theory of Chance and Probability 65 5. 1867 William Matthew Makeham, On the Law of Mortality 73 6. 1893 Johannes Karup, Financial Situation of the Gotha Public Servants' and Widows' Society 109

7. 1879 Thomas Bond Sprague, On the Construction of a Combined Marriage and Mortality Table 226 8. 1912 and 1913 L. Gustav Du Pasquier, The Mathematical Theory of Disability Insurance 270

Xltl VOLUME IX CONTENTS

1. 1792 Richard Price, Observations on Reversionary Payments . __ 1 2. 1824 Highland Society of Scotland, Report on Friendly or Benefit Societies 25 3. 1836 Bradfield Union Benefit Society, Rules and Tables of Assurance 179 4. 1852 Gustav Nicolas Hubbard, On the Organisation of Provident Societies 193 5. 1859 August Wiegand, The Mathematical Basis of Railway Pension Funds 203 6. 1903 Alfred William Watson, Sickness and Mortality Experience of the Independent Order of Oddfellows Manchester Unity Friendly Society 219

xiv VOLUME X CONTENTS

1. 1780 Charles Brand, Tables of Interest, Discount, Annuities &c. _ - 1 2. 1828 William Morgan, Appendix to A View of the Rise and Progress of the Equitable Society 7 3. 1839 Wesley Stoker Barker Woolhouse, Investigation of Mortality in the Indian Army 19 4. 1843 A Committee of , Tables exhibiting the Law of Mortality 30 5. 1851 Charles Gill, Actuary's Report to the Board of Trustees of Mutual Life Insurance Company of New York 79 6. 1862 Theodor Wittstein, The Mortality in Companies with successive entering and exiting Members 91 7. 1906 William Palin Elderton, On a form of Spurious Selection 115 8. 1912 William Palin Elderton and Richard Clift Fippard, Notes on the Construction of Mortality Tables 132 9. 1912 Paul Eugen Bohmer, Theory of independent Probabilities 147 10. 1865 Wesley Stoker Barker Woolhouse, On Interpolation Summation and the Adjustment of Numerical Tables 166 11. 1873 Seth C. Chandler Jnr, On the Construction of a Graduated Table of Mortality 209 12. 1873 Erastus L. De Forest, On some Methods of Interpolation 222 13. 1881 Thomas Bond Sprague, Explanation of a New Formula for Interpolation 324 Consolidated Index to Volumes I-X 343

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