ECONOMIC ACTIVITY in CONTEXT Macroeconomics in Context (Goodwin, Et Al.)
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Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions by Irving Fisher
THE DEBT-DEFLATION THEORY OF GREAT DEPRESSIONS BY IRVING FISHER INTRODUCTORY IN Booms and Depressions, I have developed, theoretically and sta- tistically, what may be called a debt-deflation theory of great depres- sions. In the preface, I stated that the results "seem largely new," I spoke thus cautiously because of my unfamiliarity with the vast literature on the subject. Since the book was published its special con- clusions have been widely accepted and, so far as I know, no one has yet found them anticipated by previous writers, though several, in- cluding myself, have zealously sought to find such anticipations. Two of the best-read authorities in this field assure me that those conclu- sions are, in the words of one of them, "both new and important." Partly to specify what some of these special conclusions are which are believed to be new and partly to fit them into the conclusions of other students in this field, I am offering this paper as embodying, in brief, my present "creed" on the whole subject of so-called "cycle theory." My "creed" consists of 49 "articles" some of which are old and some new. I say "creed" because, for brevity, it is purposely ex- pressed dogmatically and without proof. But it is not a creed in the sense that my faith in it does not rest on evidence and that I am not ready to modify it on presentation of new evidence. On the contrary, it is quite tentative. It may serve as a challenge to others and as raw material to help them work out a better product. -
The Origins and Evolution of Progressive Economics Part Seven of the Progressive Tradition Series
AP PHOTO/FILE AP This January 1935 photo shows a mural depicting phases of the New Deal The Origins and Evolution of Progressive Economics Part Seven of the Progressive Tradition Series Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin March 2011 WWW.AMERICANPROGRESS.ORG The Origins and Evolution of Progressive Economics Part Seven of the Progressive Tradition Series Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin March 2011 With the rise of the contemporary progressive movement and the election of President Barack Obama in 2008, there is extensive public interest in better understanding the ori- gins, values, and intellectual strands of progressivism. Who were the original progressive thinkers and activists? Where did their ideas come from and what motivated their beliefs and actions? What were their main goals for society and government? How did their ideas influence or diverge from alternative social doctrines? How do their ideas and beliefs relate to contemporary progressivism? The Progressive Tradition Series from the Center for American Progress traces the devel- opment of progressivism as a social and political tradition stretching from the late 19th century reform efforts to the current day. The series is designed primarily for educational and leadership development purposes to help students and activists better understand the foundations of progressive thought and its relationship to politics and social movements. Although the Progressive Studies Program has its own views about the relative merit of the various values, ideas, and actors discussed within the progressive tradition, the essays included in the series are descriptive and analytical rather than opinion based. We envision the essays serving as primers for exploring progressivism and liberalism in more depth through core texts—and in contrast to the conservative intellectual tradition and canon. -
Inflation and the Business Cycle
Inflation and the business cycle Michael McMahon Money and Banking (5): Inflation & Bus. Cycle 1 / 68 To Cover • Discuss the costs of inflation; • Investigate the relationship between money and inflation; • Introduce the Romer framework; • Discuss hyperinflations. • Shocks and the business cycle; • Monetary policy responses to business cycles. • Explain what the monetary transmission mechanism is; • Examine the link between inflation and GDP. Money and Banking (5): Inflation & Bus. Cycle 2 / 68 The Next Few Lectures Term structure, asset prices Exchange and capital rate market conditions Import prices Bank rate Net external demand CPI inflation Bank lending Monetary rates and credit Policy Asset purchase/ Corporate DGI conditions Framework sales demand loans Macro prudential Household policy demand deposits Inflation expectations Money and Banking (5): Inflation & Bus. Cycle 3 / 68 Inflation Definition Inflation is a sustained general rise in the price level in the economy. In reality we measure it using concepts such as: • Consumer Price Indices (CPI); • Producer Price Indices (PPI); • Deflators (GDP deflator, Consumption Expenditure Deflator) Money and Banking (5): Inflation & Bus. Cycle 4 / 68 Inflation: The Costs If all prices are rising at same rate, including wages and asset prices, what is the problem? • Information: Makes it harder to detect relative price changes and so hinders efficient operation of market; • Uncertainty: High inflation countries have very volatile inflation; • High inflation undermines role of money and encourages barter; • Growth - if inflation increases by 10%, reduce long term growth by 0.2% but only for countries with inflation higher than 15% (Barro); • Shoe leather costs/menu costs; • Interaction with tax system; • Because of fixed nominal contracts arbitrarily redistributes wealth; • Nominal contracts break down and long-term contracts avoided. -
Market Design in the Presence of Repugnancy: a Market for Children
Shane Olaleye Market Design in the Presence of Repugnancy: A Market for Children Shane Olaleye Abstract A market-like mechanism for the allocation of children in both the primary market (market for babies) and the secondary market (adoption market) will result in greater social welfare, and hence be more efficient, than the current allocation methods used in practice, even in the face of repugnancy. Since a market for children falls under the realm of repugnant transactions, it is necessary to design a market with enough safeguards to bypass repugnancy while avoiding the excessive regulations that unnecessarily distort the supply and demand pressures of a competitive market. The goal of designing a market for children herein is two-fold: 1) By creating a feasible market for children, a set of generalizable rules and principles can be realized for designing functioning and efficient markets in the face of repugnancy and 2) The presence of a potential, credible and efficient market in the presence of this repugnancy will stimulate debate into the need for such markets in other similar areas, especially in cases creating a tradable market for organs for transplantation, wherein the absence of the transaction is often a death sentence for those who wish to, but are prevented from, participating in the market. Introduction What is a Repugnant Transaction? Why Care About It? Classical economics posits that when the marginal benefit of an action outweighs its marginal cost, a market mechanism can be implemented wherein an appropriate price emerges that balances the marginal benefit and marginal cost of the action through a suitable transaction between counterparties. -
The Role of Monetary Policy in the New Keynesian Model: Evidence from Vietnam
The role of monetary policy in the New Keynesian Model: Evidence from Vietnam By: Van Hoang Khieu William Davidson Institute Working Paper Number 1075 February 2014 The role of monetary policy in the New Keynesian Model: Evidence from Vietnam Khieu, Van Hoang Graduate Student at The National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), Japan. Lecturer in Monetary Economics at Banking Academy of Vietnam. Email: [email protected] Cell phone number: +81-8094490288 Abstract This paper reproduces a version of the New Keynesian model developed by Ireland (2004) and then uses the Vietnamese data from January 1995 to December 2012 to estimate the model’s parameters. The empirical results show that before August 2000 when the Taylor rule was adopted more firmly, the monetary policy shock made considerable contributions to the fluctuations in key macroeconomic variables such as the short-term nominal interest rate, the output gap, inflation, and especially output growth. By contrast, the loose adoption of the Taylor rule in the period of post- August 2000 leads to a fact that the contributions of the monetary policy shock to the variations in such key macroeconomic variables become less substantial. Thus, one policy implication is that adopting firmly the Taylor rule could strengthen the role of the monetary policy in driving movements in the key macroeconomic variables, for instance, enhancing economic growth and stabilizing inflation. Key words: New Keynesian model, Monetary Policy, Technology Shock, Cost-Push Shock, Preference Shock. JEL classification: E12, E32. 1 1. Introduction Explaining dynamic behaviors of key macroeconomic variables has drawn a lot of interest from researchers. -
Deflation: a Business Perspective
Deflation: a business perspective Prepared by the Corporate Economists Advisory Group Introduction Early in 2003, ICC's Corporate Economists Advisory Group discussed the risk of deflation in some of the world's major economies, and possible consequences for business. The fear was that historically low levels of inflation and faltering economic growth could lead to deflation - a persistent decline in the general level of prices - which in turn could trigger economic depression, with widespread company and bank failures, a collapse in world trade, mass unemployment and years of shrinking economic activity. While the risk of deflation is now remote in most countries - given the increasingly unambiguous signs of global economic recovery - its potential costs are very high and would directly affect companies. This issues paper was developed to help companies better understand the phenomenon of deflation, and to give them practical guidance on possible measures to take if and when the threat of deflation turns into reality on a future occasion. What is deflation? Deflation is defined as a sustained fall in an aggregate measure of prices (such as the consumer price index). By this definition, changes in prices in one economic sector or falling prices over short periods (e.g., one or two quarters) do not qualify as deflation. Dec lining prices can be driven by an increase in supply due to technological innovation and rapid productivity gains. These supply-induced shocks are usually not problematic and can even be accompanied by robust growth, as experienced by China. A fall in prices led by a drop in demand - due to a severe economic cycle, tight economic policies or a demand-side shock - or by persistent excess capacity can be much more harmful, and is more likely to lead to persistent deflation. -
Market Mechanisms and Central Economic Planning
The Thomas JeffersonCenter Foundation Market Mechanisms and Central EconomicPlanning YVfiltonPriedman The C. Warren Nutter Lectures in Political Economy The C Warren Nutter Lectures in Political Economy The G. Warren Nutter Lectures in Political Economy have been insti tuted to honor the memory of the late Professor Nutter, to encourage scholarly interest in the range of topics to which he devoted his career, and to provide his students and associates an additional con tact with each other and with the rising generation of scholars. At the time of his death in January 1979, G. Warren Nutter was director of the Thomas Jefferson Center Foundation, adjunct scholar of the American Enterprise Institute, director of AEI's James Madison Center, a member of advisory groups at both the Hoover Institution and The Citadel, and Paul Goodloe Mcintire Professor of Economics at the University of Virginia. Professor Nutter made notable contributions to price theory, the assessment of monopoly and competition, the study of the Soviet economy, and the economics of defense and foreign policy. He earned his Ph.D. degree at the University of Chicago. In 1957 he joined with James M. Buchanan to establish the Thomas Jefferson Center for Studies in Political Economy at the University of Virginia. In 1967 he established the Thomas Jefferson Center Foundation as a separate entity but with similar objectives of supporting scholarly work and graduate study in political economy and holding confer ences of economists from the United States and both Western and Eastern Europe. He served during the 1960s as director of the Thomas Jefferson Center and chairman of the Department of Economics at the University of Virginia and, from 1969 to 1973, as assistant secre tary of defense for international security affairs. -
The End of Modern Economic Growth As We Know It Jean-Pierre Dormois
The End of Modern Economic Growth as We Know It Jean-Pierre Dormois To cite this version: Jean-Pierre Dormois. The End of Modern Economic Growth as We Know It. 2017, pp.1-9. halshs- 02862342 HAL Id: halshs-02862342 https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-02862342 Submitted on 9 Jun 2020 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. The End of Modern Economic Growth as We Know It by Jean-Pierre Dormois Economic progress is behind us in the West, warns Robert J. Gordon in a 750 pages-tome which revisits the economic history of the U.S. in the last century and a half. Measuring the impact on living standards of the major technological breakthroughs of the “second industrial revolution,” he observes that sources of productivity growth seem to have dried since the 1970s oil shock and that the productivity-enhancing effects of the digital “revolution” have so far proved elusive. Reviewed: Robert J. Gordon, The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 2016. Between 1870 and 1970, or more precisely between 1890 and 1940, the author demonstrates, the U.S. -
Interactions Between Business Cycles, Financial Cycles and Monetary Policy: Stylised Facts1
Interactions between business cycles, financial cycles and 1 monetary policy: stylised facts Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi and Julien Matheron2 Introduction The spectacular rise in asset prices up to 2000 in most developed countries has attracted a great deal of attention and reopened the debate over whether these prices should be targeted in monetary policy strategies. Some observers see asset price developments, in particular those of stock prices, as being inconsistent with developments in economic fundamentals, ie a speculative bubble. This interpretation carries with it a range of serious consequences arising from the bursting of this bubble: scarcity of financing opportunities, a general decline in investment, a fall in output, and finally a protracted contraction in real activity. Other observers believe that stock prices are likely to have an impact on goods and services prices and thus affect economic activity and inflation. These theories are currently at the centre of the debate on whether asset prices should be taken into account in the conduct of monetary policy, ie as a target or as an instrument.3 However, the empirical link between asset prices and economic activity on the one hand, and the relationship between economic activity and interest rates or between stock prices and interest rates on the other, are not established facts. This study therefore sets out to identify a number of stylised facts that characterise this link, using a statistical analysis of these data (economic activity indicators, stock prices and interest rates). More specifically, we study the co-movements between stock market indices, real activity and interest rates over the business cycle. -
Brazilian Economic Development in Historical Perspective
GOVERNMENT, MARKET AND DEVELOPMENT: BRAZILIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE FABIANO ABRANCHES SILVA DALTO Thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the University of Hertfordshire for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy The programme of research has been carried out in the Department of Statistics, Economics, Accounting & Management Science, Business School, University of Hertfordshire November 2007 1 2 Abstract In the last 30 years the World has been swept by neoliberal doctrine. Under neoliberal conceptions, freedom of the market mechanism has precedence in the process of development. Neoliberalism has had a major impact on the mindset of policymakers, on government strategies for development and on economic performance. This thesis is about the economic consequences of neoliberalism in Brazil. It approaches the problem from a historical perspective. By examining government economic strategies in Brazil from the 1930s through the 1970s it undermines a central neoliberal argument that government interventions in the economy are either inimical or irrelevant to economic development. While government failures did occur indeed, in the Brazilian case it is shown that the government performed a crucial role in this period in building key institutions that guided market forces towards industrial transformation. Since the mid-1970s, Brazil has been a laboratory for neoliberal economic policymaking. Restrictive macroeconomic policies alongside liberalised markets have been the cornerstones of policymaking. The second line of argument developed here is that neoliberalism has since constrained economic development in Brazil. During this period the country has been through several financial crises and has experienced low economic growth and unprecedented unemployment. Compared with the previous period of government-led development, neoliberal policies and institutions fall far behind in terms of overall economic performance. -
The Socialization of Investment, from Keynes to Minsky and Beyond
Working Paper No. 822 The Socialization of Investment, from Keynes to Minsky and Beyond by Riccardo Bellofiore* University of Bergamo December 2014 * [email protected] This paper was prepared for the project “Financing Innovation: An Application of a Keynes-Schumpeter- Minsky Synthesis,” funded in part by the Institute for New Economic Thinking, INET grant no. IN012-00036, administered through the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. Co-principal investigators: Mariana Mazzucato (Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex) and L. Randall Wray (Levy Institute). The author thanks INET and the Levy Institute for support of this research. The Levy Economics Institute Working Paper Collection presents research in progress by Levy Institute scholars and conference participants. The purpose of the series is to disseminate ideas to and elicit comments from academics and professionals. Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, founded in 1986, is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, independently funded research organization devoted to public service. Through scholarship and economic research it generates viable, effective public policy responses to important economic problems that profoundly affect the quality of life in the United States and abroad. Levy Economics Institute P.O. Box 5000 Annandale-on-Hudson, NY 12504-5000 http://www.levyinstitute.org Copyright © Levy Economics Institute 2014 All rights reserved ISSN 1547-366X Abstract An understanding of, and an intervention into, the present capitalist reality requires that we put together the insights of Karl Marx on labor, as well as those of Hyman Minsky on finance. The best way to do this is within a longer-term perspective, looking at the different stages through which capitalism evolves. -
New Monetarist Economics: Methods∗
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department Staff Report 442 April 2010 New Monetarist Economics: Methods∗ Stephen Williamson Washington University in St. Louis and Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and St. Louis Randall Wright University of Wisconsin — Madison and Federal Reserve Banks of Minneapolis and Philadelphia ABSTRACT This essay articulates the principles and practices of New Monetarism, our label for a recent body of work on money, banking, payments, and asset markets. We first discuss methodological issues distinguishing our approach from others: New Monetarism has something in common with Old Monetarism, but there are also important differences; it has little in common with Keynesianism. We describe the principles of these schools and contrast them with our approach. To show how it works, in practice, we build a benchmark New Monetarist model, and use it to study several issues, including the cost of inflation, liquidity and asset trading. We also develop a new model of banking. ∗We thank many friends and colleagues for useful discussions and comments, including Neil Wallace, Fernando Alvarez, Robert Lucas, Guillaume Rocheteau, and Lucy Liu. We thank the NSF for financial support. Wright also thanks for support the Ray Zemon Chair in Liquid Assets at the Wisconsin Business School. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond, St. Louis, Philadelphia, and Minneapolis, or the Federal Reserve System. 1Introduction The purpose of this essay is to articulate the principles and practices of a school of thought we call New Monetarist Economics. It is a companion piece to Williamson and Wright (2010), which provides more of a survey of the models used in this literature, and focuses on technical issues to the neglect of methodology or history of thought.