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Two Views on Rohani Iran August 7, 2015 15 Two views on Rohani Iran Rohani seeks a big election win he often taciturn a poker face to world powers and receive a massive boost as a result. day-to-day finance or for funding Iranian President to hedge against talks failing, but In practice, what Americans call popular projects, thereby diminish- Hassan Rohani partly also for domestic reasons: to the “Nixon goes to China factor” ing the productive investment the has been in calm fundamentalists’ fears over has meant it has been far easier for economy needs to meet an ambi- buoyant mood. concessions and to counteract any a pragmatic conservative such as tious 8% growth target and provide “How can one be sense in Iran that talks might lead Rohani to secure a deal. sufficient employment opportuni- an Iranian and to an early, wider rapprochement Hence the reformists are unlikely ties for a growing labour force. Gareth Smyth not cheer our with the United States. His com- to benefit from Vienna, at least Both US President Barack Obama negotiating ments on the agreement have been in the short term. Khamenei has and Rohani have invested time and team?” he asked during a medical in line with this. While praising the already warned against any “exploi- effort in the Vienna agreement. For Tconference in late July in remarks negotiators, Khamenei has reiter- tation” of the nuclear agreement, Obama, this is essentially a legacy broadcast live on television. “This ated Iran’s continuing resistance a message to reformists not to take issue, fulfilling an original election is a new page in history. It didn’t to the United States and Tehran’s any encouragement to demand pledge of engaging Iran. For Rohani, happen when we reached the deal commitment to keep supporting political or social changes. it’s just the beginning. in Vienna on July 14; it happened its “friends in the region including The leaders of the Green Move- on August 4, 2013, when the the oppressed nations of Palestine, ment, Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Gareth Smyth has covered Middle Iranians elected me as their Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain and Mehdi Karroubi, will probably Eastern affairs for 20 president.” Lebanon”. remain under house arrest while years and Rohani’s star can rise further. The Khamenei’s ambiguity has en- Green supporters will be barred was chief president seems set for a boost in couraged critical fundamentalists from the parliamentary election correspondent the February 2016 parliamentary to express criticism of the nuclear by the watchdog Guardian Coun- for the elections, assuming that the US talks. Some have attacked the UN cil. Other reformists may scrape Financial Congress will not, as many Iranians resolution endorsing the Vienna through but many will instead back Times in Iran fear, scuttle the Vienna agreement. agreement for crossing Iran’s “red informal arrangements to support from 2003- Rohani has told Iranians a convinc- lines”, while the continuing “mar- candidates sympathetic to Rohani. 07. ing story since his successful 2013 tyrdom” of Revolutionary Guards in In any case, it would be a mistake presidential campaign, when he Syria and Iraq reinforces fundamen- to simplify any Iranian election. won partly by acknowledging the talists’ sense that the United States Many deputies are returned on lo- corrosive effect of sanctions on the is orchestrating hostile forces sur- cal or regional issues. A majority country’s economy. rounding Iran. Hence Khamenei has in the current parliament has With the support of the supreme ruled out talks on resuming formal supported Speaker Ali Lari- leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, diplomatic relations with Washing- jani, a stalwart supporter of Rohani marshalled most of the ton, broken off following the 1979 the supreme leader who has political class behind negotiations revolution. combined pragmatism in and has now achieved international But critics of the deal can take foreign policy with a tight recognition of Iran’s “right” to their barbs only so far. Like that of line on social and cultural enrich uranium and a commitment the US Republicans, their criticism issues. to lift sanctions. is undermined by their failure to It seems likely that the But if his talk of a “new page of present a convincing alternative. next parliament will be history” is dramatic, Rohani is too Rohani has adopted Khamenei’s broadly more supportive wise to become complacent as he notion of “heroic flexibility” and of Rohani and he will continues to face challenges in seems set to win a political divi- certainly need that sup- the fiercely competitive world of dend with a more supportive parlia- port if he is to deliver Iranian politics. ment after the February 2016 elec- on his stated aim of As ever, Khamenei tions for the 290-member assembly shaking up Iran’s is a fulcrum. The long dominated by conservatives. economy through en- The president seems leader likes to appear On the other side of the spectrum to couraging the private aloof from Iran’s vari- the fundamentalists, the reformists sector and stimulating set for a boost in ous factions. While are also on uncertain ground. When competition. the February 2016 he has backed Rohani reformist president Mohammad Successive presidents throughout the talks, Khatami attempted to reach a nu- have failed to stop either parliamentary Khamenei has kept clear agreement with the European their own government or a careful ambiguity Union in 2003-05, conservatives parliament dipping into elections — partly to present feared the reformist “left” would oil revenue as a source of Rohani and the crisis of rising expectations ranian President Hassan expects improvement in their living problems”. Rohani’s successful standards. After all, watching one On the other end nuclear diplomacy has European trade delegation after of the political created a crisis of rising the other arriving in Tehran, the spectrum, expectations among Iranian public is right in demanding Rohani’s critics Iranians, which he cannot its share of the peace dividend are, as expected, possibly satisfy prior to — a dividend Team Rohani has fanning the flames Ali Alfoneh the February 2016 parlia- yet to deliver. Rohani has indeed of discontent over Team mentary elections. There managed to turn negative into Rohani’s economic is a growing belief this will turn positive economic growth and performance. Having lost the Ihis diplomatic victory with the control galloping inflation to less nationalist discourse over Iran’s July 14th Vienna agreement into a than 20%, thus stabilising the rial nuclear programme to Rohani, they resounding electoral defeat. against the US dollar. are seeking to regain the political Rohani’s campaign promise to But the Tehran Stock Exchange upper hand by shifting their the voters was very simple: He remains cautious in its reactions to attention to the gap between his the president for raising public would solve the crisis over Iran’s the nuclear deal. Unemployment pre-election promises and the grim expectations and ignoring the nuclear programme through remains high, in particular among economic realities of today’s Iran. “fundamental maladies of Iran’s negotiations with world powers the young, and the purchasing Lawmaker Mohammad-Ebrahim economy”, such as “inefficacy” and and achieve sanctions relief. housing remains well beyond Mohebi has attacked Rohani’s the “corrupt nature” of a Soviet- The flood of funds this would the means of the middle class, election slogan “I lived up to my style state-controlled economy” produce, coupled with a competent in particular public-sector election promise” by charging: — none of which are likely to be economic management — an employees. Major government- “The president says we reached an solved in the short or even medium implicit reference to incompetent led infrastructure development agreement, but the agreement was term. What Zibakalam does not economic management under projects and grand-scale meant to stimulate the economy… openly mention is the central President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad construction have nearly ground to Unemployment has deteriorated role of the rich and powerful — would improve the living a halt. and basic foodstuff has become revolutionary foundations (bonyad- standards of Iranians. Rohani’s allies and core more expensive under this haye enqelab) and the IRGC’s The Iranian public chose to supporters are going to great government.” dominant position in the Iranian believe Rohani’s explanation lengths in defence of his economic Meantime, Hassan Abbasi, economy. These not only absorb that the sanctions regime and policies. Fatemeh Hashemi a theoretician of the Islamic the foreign currency flowing into Ahmadinejad-era economic Rafsanjani, daughter of the former Revolutionary Guards Corps Iran but also go to great lengths to mismanagement were the cause president, expressed hope that (IRGC), seeks to whip up anti- protect their lucrative economic of their poverty. They also chose the Iranian public “understands Rohani anger among young interests and monopolies. to believe in Rohani’s ability to that Iran’s economy can’t improve members of the Guards and the This scenario does not bode solve the nuclear crisis through overnight” and will “patiently wait Basij militia it controls by claiming well for Rohani or his supporters. diplomacy, achieve for the government’s economic that Iran will receive only $4.5 Incapable of translating the nuclear sanctions relief and initiatives to improve the plight billion in sanctions relief rather agreement into economic growth Rohani and his ease the economic of Iranian families”. Abdollah than the probably inflated figure and the realisation of Rohani’s pre- hardships of Ramezanzadeh, government of $100 billion-$150 billion that’s election promises, they risk turning supporters risk turning Iranian families spokesman under reformist being bandied about. The message the historic diplomatic coup in the historic diplomatic through competent president Mohammad Khatami, is: the Rohani government Vienna into a dismal defeat at the management.
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