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Prospects and Challenges After Withdrawal of Nato/Isaf Forces

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Prospects and Challenges After Withdrawal of Nato/Isaf Forces DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR EXTERNAL POLICIES OF THE UNION DIRECTORATE B POLICY DEPARTMENT WORKSHOP AFGHANISTAN AND CENTRAL ASIA: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES AFTER WITHDRAWAL OF NATO/ISAF FORCES EXPO/B/AFET/2013/19-24-25-26 January 2014 PE 457.127 EN Policy Department DG External Policies This workshop was requested by the European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs, and by the Delegation for relations with Afghanistan and Delegation to Central Asia. AUTHORS: Steven BLOCKMANS, Senior Research Fellow, CEPS, Belgium Rebecca DAVIS, CEPS, Belgium Seed PARTO, Director of Research, AFGHANISTAN PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH ORGANISATION, Afghanistan Rachel REID, Advocacy Manager, OPEN SOCIETY FOUNDATIONS Hekmat Khalil KARZAI, Director, CENTRE FOR CONFLICT AND PEACE STUDIES, Afghanistan ADMINISTRATOR RESPONSIBLE: Laurence WANDEWALLE Directorate-General for External Policies of the Union Policy Department WIB 06 M 049 rue Wiertz 60 B-1047 Brussels Editorial Assistant: Györgyi MÁCSAI LINGUISTIC VERSIONS Original: EN ABOUT THE EDITOR Editorial closing date: 27 January 2014. © European Union, 2014 Printed in Belgium ISBN: 978-92-823-5771-2 Doi: 10.2861/64198 The Information Note is available on the Internet at http://www.europarl.europa.eu/activities/committees/studies.do?language=EN If you are unable to download the information you require, please request a paper copy by e-mail : [email protected] DISCLAIMER Any opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. Reproduction and translation, except for commercial purposes, are authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and provided the publisher is given prior notice and supplied with a copy of the publication. 2 Afghanistan and Central Asia: Prospects and challenges after withdrawal of NATO/ISAF forces TABLE OF CONTENTS ASSESSMENT OF EU SUPPORT TO AFGHANISTAN FOR THE LAST DECADE AND LESSONS LEARNT FOR THE FUTURE (STEVEN BLOCKMANS) 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 1. INTRODUCTION 8 2. A CONTEXTUAL OVERVIEW TO AID TO AFGHANISTAN 10 2.1 THE POLITICAL SITUATION 10 2.2 THE SECURITY SITUATION 11 2.3 SOCIAL ISSUES, ECONOMY AND TRADE 13 2.4 ACTIVITIES OF OTHER AID DONORS 15 3. EU ASSISTANCE TO AFGHANISTAN (2001-2013): IMPACT ANALYSIS AND LESSONS LEARNT 17 3.1 INTRODUCTION 17 3.2 OVERVIEW OF EU ASSISTANCE 19 3.2.1 Reconstruction (2001-2006) 19 3.2.2 Capacity-building (2007-2013) 20 3.2.3 Common Foreign and Security Policy and Common Security and Defence Policy 22 3.2.4 Evaluation 23 3.3 AN ASSESSMENT OF THE EU’S CONCEPTUAL ASSUMPTIONS AND HOW THEY HAVE EVOLVED OVER THE YEARS 24 3.3.1 Introduction 24 3.3.2 Period 2001-2006 25 3.3.3 Period 2007-2013 27 3.3.4 Overall evaluation 29 3.4 LESSONS-LEARNT 30 3.4.1 Introduction 30 3.4.2 EU self-assessment reports 31 3.4.3 Evaluation reports by the EU’s partners 32 3.4.4 Overall evaluation 34 4. EU ASSISTANCE TO AFGHANISTAN DURING THE ‘TRANSFORMATION DECADE’ (2015-2024) 36 4.1 INTRODUCTION 36 4.2 SECURITY TRANSITION 37 4.3 POLITICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRANSITION 38 4.4 SCENARIOS FOR EU SUPPORT 39 3 Policy Department DG External Policies 5. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 41 ANNEX A – OVERVIEW OF EU AND MEMBER STATES’ ASSISTANCE TO AFGHANISTAN 43 ANNEX B – QUESTIONNAIRE FOR SEMI-STRUCTURED INTERVIEWS 61 DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE AND INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITIES IN AFGHANISTAN: IS THE GLASS HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY? (SAID PARTO) 62 AFGHANISTAN: 'WOMEN'S RIGHTS AND OTHER HUMAN RIGHTS' (RACHEL REID) 68 AFGHANISTAN AND CENTRAL ASIA: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES AFTER WITHDRAWAL OF NATO/ISAF FORCES (HEKMAT KHALIL KARZAI) 74 POWERPOINT PRESENTATIONS 80 4 Afghanistan and Central Asia: Prospects and challenges after withdrawal of NATO/ISAF forces ASSESSMENT OF EU SUPPORT TO AFGHANISTAN FOR THE LAST DECADE AND LESSONS LEARNT FOR THE FUTURE (Steven Blockmans) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Years of conflict have damaged Afghanistan’s economic, political, physical, social and institutional structures. Afghanistan ranks 175 out of 187 in the 2013 Human Development Index. Gross Domestic Product per capita is estimated at USD 1,343. Despite improvements in recent years health and education-related indicators remain among the lowest in the world. Discrimination against women is endemic. The government continues to struggle to deliver basic public services, provide rule of law and guarantee internal security. Afghanistan has nevertheless made progress thanks to global partnerships in development, from the pledges made in the 2001 Bonn agreement to the mutual commitments and accountability struck at the 2012 Chicago and Tokyo conferences. Official Development Assistance has substantially grown since 2001. In 2008 Afghanistan became the world’s leading aid recipient. Even when excluding security sector assistance, the country's aid dependency ratio remains one of the highest in the world with external assistance funding 71% of GDP. The EU has been a major contributor of humanitarian and development assistance to Afghanistan. Between 2002 and 2012, the EU has committed EUR 2.7 billion through the general budget and disbursed 89 % of that. Taken together with the member states, the European contribution to the development of Afghanistan amounts to more than EUR 1 billion per year. The EU has focused on three areas where its support is complementary to that of others and can add value: policing and the rule of law, which are key to stabilisation; the health sector; and rural development, both of which aim to improve the socio-economic situation of Afghan citizens. Whereas tangible achievements have been made, overall progress has been slow in all three areas, given the complex environment of transition, the enormous challenges faced and ineffective donor alignment. In the area of rural development and health, the overall conclusion is that the EU has made a substantial impact but that future support would necessitate further flexibility and responsiveness from the Commission’s side to efficiently respond to the evolving needs of the country. EU efforts in de-mining and counter-narcotics have been less successful over the years. The support has been provided mainly through a project-based approach, yet is – in line with principles of aid effectiveness – being transferred into a more sector-wide approach, and channeled through, for instance, the relatively successful multi-donor trust funds administered by the World Bank and the UN. The critical years lie ahead. Afghanistan continues to be a conflict-afflicted and fragile state. There is considerable uncertainty as to what the political and security environment will look like past the 2014 transition horizon. Afghanistan will require extensive, predictable, and sustained international aid during the next decade to become a self-reliant country. The working hypothesis of the EU and member states seems to be premised on a continuation of support in previously determined focal sectors. This choice may bode well for the future, provided that the overall political and security situation proves resilient and that lessons learnt will be applied. Because active ownership is key for sustainability, an important aim of the EU will have to be to support state-building and long-term development in Afghanistan, focused on democratisation and economic governance, rule of law, basic service needs, and the creation of sustainable livelihoods, alternative to production of narcotics and illegal precursors. Enshrining those operating principles in the future EU-Afghanistan Cooperation Agreement for Partnership and Development, for which negotiations are currently underway, should provide the (legal) basis to structure mutual commitments and mutual accountability. The ongoing debates within the Commission and the Council on the future role of the EU in Afghanistan should lead to the development of a new strategy to replace the 2009 Action Plan; one that is aligned with the strategic 5 Policy Department DG External Policies thinking of the Afghan government, identifies deliverable objectives and timelines, and sets out a clear division of labour. The way in which conditionality is implemented will be essential if the EU’s measures are to have any effect on its addressees. The strategy should be ready for endorsement by mid-2014. LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank ANA Afghan National Army ANDS Afghan National Development Strategy ANP Afghan National Police APRP Afghanistan Peace and Reintegration Program Background Progress ARTF Afghan Reconstruction Trust Fund AUP Aid to Uprooted People BPHS Basic Package of Health Services CAPD Cooperation Agreement for Partnership and Development CBM Confidence Building Measure CIDA Canadian International Development Agency CFSP Common Foreign Security Policy CG Consultative Group CNTF Counter Narcotics Trust Fund CRIS Common Relex Information System CSDP Common Security and Defence Policy CSP Country Strategy Paper DEVCO Directorate General Development Co-operation DFID Department for International Development EBA Everything But Arms EC European Commission ECA European Court of Auditors ECO Economic Cooperation Organisation ECHO European Community Humanitarian Office ERW Explosive Remnants of War EEAS European External Action Service EFT Electronic Funds Transfer EIDHR European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights EP European Parliament EPHS Essential Package of Hospital Services EPS Electronic Payroll System EUPOL European Union Police Mission in Afghanistan EUSR EU Special Representative FAO Food and Agriculture
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