Crop Production
Executive Summary
Lance Honig, Chief Crops Branch
August 12, 2020 Data Sources
Operator Reported Ag Yield Sample Size = 20,346 July 30 - August 6 Survey
Field Objective Yield Sample Size = 1,155 July 25 - August 1 Survey Winter Wheat
Remotely Sensed Time Series 250 Meter Focus Area Imagery Through (Satellite) MODIS Satellite Data Corn Belt August 3 August 2020 Ag Yield Sample Sizes
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Corn Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels) United States 92,006 84,023 181.8 15,278,202 % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 2.6 ↑ 3.3 ↑ 8.6 ↑ 12.2
Top 5 States - By Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (Bushels/Acre) % ∆ PY (1,000 Bushels) % ∆ PY Iowa 14,000 ↑ 3.7 13,550 ↑ 3.8 202 ↑ 2.0 2,737,100 ↑ 5.9 Illinois 10,900 ↑ 3.8 10,700 ↑ 4.9 207 ↑ 14.4 2,214,900 ↑ 20.0 Nebraska 9,800 ↓ 3.0 9,450 ↓ 3.7 191 ↑ 4.9 1,804,950 ↑ 1.1 Minnesota 8,100 ↑ 3.8 7,650 ↑ 5.5 197 ↑ 13.9 1,507,050 ↑ 20.2 Indiana 5,400 ↑ 8.0 5,250 ↑ 8.9 188 ↑ 11.2 987,000 ↑ 21.2
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Corn Yield United States
Bushels per Acre
190.0 181.8 176.6176.4 180.0 174.6 171.0 168.4 167.4 170.0 164.4 160.3 158.1 160.0 153.3 152.6 150.7 149.1 147.9 146.8 150.0 142.2 138.6 136.9138.2 140.0 134.4133.8 131.5 129.3 127.1126.7 130.0 123.1
120.0 113.5 108.6 110.0 100.7 100.0 90.0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Corn Yield Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Corn NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Corn Production United States
Billion Bushels
16.0 15.1 15.3 14.6 14.2 14.3 13.8 13.6 13.6 14.0 12.3 12.0 10.8
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
August 12, 2020 2020 U.S. Corn Production Industry Expectations vs NASS
Billion Bushels 15.5
15.4
15.3
15.2
15.1
15.0
14.9
14.8 August September October November Final
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Soybeans Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels) United States 83,825 83,020 53.3 4,424,800 % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 10.2 ↑ 10.8 ↑ 12.4 ↑ 24.6
Top 5 States - By Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (Bushels/Acre) % ∆ PY (1,000 Bushels) % ∆ PY Illinois 10,400 ↑ 4.5 10,350 ↑ 5.0 64.0 ↑ 18.5 662,400 ↑ 24.4 Iowa 9,400 ↑ 2.2 9,320 ↑ 2.2 58.0 ↑ 5.5 540,560 ↑ 7.8 Minnesota 7,400 ↑ 8.0 7,330 ↑ 8.3 51.0 ↑ 15.9 373,830 ↑ 25.5 Indiana 5,700 ↑ 5.6 5,680 ↑ 6.0 61.0 ↑ 19.6 346,480 ↑ 26.7 Nebraska 5,000 ↑ 2.0 4,950 ↑ 2.3 62.0 ↑ 6.0 306,900 ↑ 8.4
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Soybean Yield United States
Bushels per Acre
53.3 54.0 51.9 50.6 49.3 48.0 49.0 47.5 47.4
44.0 44.0 43.5 43.1 42.9 44.0 42.2 42.0 41.4 41.7 40.0 39.6 39.7 38.9 38.9 38.1 38.0 39.0 37.6 37.6 36.6 35.3 34.2 33.9 34.0 32.6
29.0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Soybean Yield Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Soybeans NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Soybean Production United States
Billion Bushels
5.0 4.41 4.43 4.42 4.5 4.30 3.93 3.93 4.0 3.55 3.5 3.36 3.10 3.04 3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
August 12, 2020 2020 U.S. Soybean Production Industry Expectations vs NASS
Billion Bushels 4.50
4.45
4.40
4.35
4.30
4.25
4.20
4.15
4.10 August September October November Final
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Cotton Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales) United States 12,185 9,247 938 18,080 % Change from Previous Estimate NC N/A N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 11.3 ↓ 20.4 ↑ 14.0 ↓ 9.2
Top 5 States - By Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (Pounds/Acre) % ∆ PY (1,000 Bales) % ∆ PY Texas 6,615 ↓ 6.3 3,861 ↓ 26.6 774 ↑ 33.9 6,223 ↓ 1.8 Georgia 1,230 ↓ 12.1 1,220 ↓ 11.6 1,003 ↑ 5.2 2,550 ↓ 6.9 Mississippi 520 ↓ 26.8 515 ↓ 26.4 1,240 ↑ 11.5 1,330 ↓ 18.0 Arkansas 500 ↓ 19.4 490 ↓ 19.7 1,195 ↑ 0.8 1,220 ↓ 19.0 Alabama 470 ↓ 13.0 465 ↓ 12.6 981 ↑ 5.7 950 ↓ 7.6
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Cotton Yield United States
Pounds per Acre 980.0 938
905 930.0 892 879 882 867 880.0 855 831 838 822 823 814 813 812 830.0 790 776 766 780.0 730 708 730.0 700 705 705 673 665 680.0 652 625 632 630.0 606 607 580.0 537 530.0 480.0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Cotton Yield Pounds and Percent Change from Previous Year
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Cotton Production United States
Million Bales
25.0
20.9 19.9 20.0 18.4 18.1 17.3 17.2 16.3 15.6 15.0 12.9 12.9
10.0
5.0
0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Winter Wheat Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels) United States 30,550 23,439 51.1 1,198,362 % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 1.7 ↓ 1.6
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 2.0 ↓ 3.7 ↓ 4.7 ↓ 8.1
Top 5 States - By Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (Bushels/Acre) % ∆ PY (1,000 Bushels) % ∆ PY Kansas 6,700 ↓ 2.9 6,400 ↓ 1.5 46.0 ↓ 11.5 294,400 ↓ 12.9 Washington 1,700 ↓ 2.9 1,650 ↓ 2.9 74.0 ↑ 5.7 122,100 ↑ 2.6 Oklahoma 4,300 ↑ 2.4 2,700 ↓ 1.8 42.0 ↑ 5.0 113,400 ↑ 3.1 Montana 1,550 ↓ 22.5 1,450 ↓ 23.7 52.0 ↑ 4.0 75,400 ↓ 20.6 Texas 4,800 ↑ 6.7 2,100 ↑ 2.4 30.0 ↓ 11.8 63,000 ↓ 9.6
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Winter Wheat Yield United States
Bushels per Acre
61.0
55.3 56.0 53.6
51.1 50.2 51.0 47.8 47.9 47.3 46.9 46.7 47.1 47.1 46.5 46.1 44.6 44.6 46.0 44.3 44.0 43.4 43.5 42.6 42.5 41.6 41.7 40.2 40.2 41.0 38.2 38.2 37.7 37.1
36.0 34.7
31.0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Winter Wheat Yield Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Winter Wheat Objective Yield Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab
Percent 100
90
80
70
60
50 93 94 93 93 89 92 40 68 69 69 64 64 30 50 20 28 10 21 18 16 14 8
0
July July July July July July
June June June June June June
August August August August August August 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mature
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Winter Wheat Objective Yield Heads per Square Foot and Yield for 10 State Region
Heads per Square Foot Bushels per Acre 50 55
53 48 51
46 49
47 44
45
42 43
40 41
39 38 37
36 35
July
July
July
July
July
July
June
June
June
June
June
June
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
August
August
August
August
August August 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Heads per Square Foot Yield
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Winter Wheat Production United States
Billion Bushels
2.0
1.8 1.63 1.67 1.54 1.6 1.49 1.38 1.37 1.4 1.27 1.30 1.18 1.20 1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Winter Wheat Production By Class
Production Unit Hard Red Winter Wheat Production United States (1,000 Units) Hard Red Winter Wheat 695,365 Bu Million Bushels 1,200 1,082 % Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 2.1 998 1,000 % Change from Previous Season ↓ 16.5 830 833 783 800 747 739 750 695 Soft Red Winter Wheat 276,882 Bu 662 % Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 1.2 600
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 15.8 400
White Winter Wheat 226,115 Bu 200 % Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 0.5 0 % Change from Previous Season ↓ 2.4 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Soft Red Winter Wheat Production White Winter Wheat Production United States United States Million Bushels Million Bushels 600 568 300 258 245 500 453 455 250 236 232 220 227 227 226 413 400 359 200 184 185 345 293 286 300 277 150 239
200 100
100 50
0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
August 12, 2020 2020 U.S. Winter Wheat Production Industry Expectations vs NASS
Billion Bushels 1.35
1.30
1.25
1.20
1.15 May June July August Final
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Other Spring Wheat Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels) United States 12,200 11,795 49.0 577,485 % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↑ 5.2 ↑ 5.0
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 3.6 ↑ 1.2 ↑ 1.7 ↑ 2.7
Top 5 States - By Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (Bushels/Acre) % ∆ PY (1,000 Bushels) % ∆ PY North Dakota 6,000 ↓ 10.4 5,850 ↓ 1.7 48.0 ↓ 2.0 280,800 ↓ 3.7 Montana 3,000 ↑ 3.4 2,850 ↑ 3.3 40.0 ↑ 8.1 114,000 ↑ 11.6 Minnesota 1,300 ↓ 10.3 1,260 ↓ 10.0 58.0 ↑ 1.8 73,080 ↓ 8.4 Idaho 530 ↑ 15.2 510 ↑ 15.9 82.0 ↓ 7.9 41,820 ↑ 6.8 South Dakota 850 ↑ 32.8 815 ↑ 34.7 45.0 ↑ 4.7 36,675 ↑ 41.0
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Other Spring Wheat Yield United States
Bushels per Acre
51.0 49.0 48.3 48.2 47.1 47.3 46.7 46.1 46.2 46.0 45.2 44.9 43.2 41.8 41.0 40.5 41.0 39.5 38.4 37.7 37.1 37.1
35.1 34.9 35.2 36.0 34.1 33.7 33.4 33.2 32.2 31.8
29.9 31.0 29.1
26.0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Other Spring Wheat Yield Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month
August 12, 2020 2020 U.S. Other Spring Wheat Production Industry Expectations vs NASS
Billion Bushels 0.580
0.570
0.560
0.550
0.540
0.530
0.520 July August Final
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Durum Wheat Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels) United States 1,500 1,444 42.8 61,790 % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↑ 11.2 ↑ 11.2
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 12.0 ↑ 22.9 ↓ 6.3 ↑ 14.9
Top 5 States - By Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (Bushels/Acre) % ∆ PY (1,000 Bushels) % ∆ PY North Dakota 790 ↑ 9.7 770 ↑ 28.3 40.0 ↓ 5.9 30,800 ↑ 20.8 Montana 610 ↑ 10.9 590 ↑ 14.6 38.0 ↓ 11.6 22,420 ↑ 1.2 Arizona 55 ↑ 61.8 52 ↑ 57.6 110.0 ↑ 5.8 5,720 ↑ 66.7 California 35 ↑ 16.7 22 NC 90.0 ↓ 11.8 1,980 ↓ 11.8 Idaho 10 ↑ 100.0 10 ↑ 100.0 87.0 NC 870 ↑ 100.0
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Durum Wheat Yield United States
Bushels per Acre
48.0 45.7
44.0 44.0 44.0 43.3 42.8
43.0 41.2 40.2 39.7 39.5 38.4 38.0 37.2 38.0 37.0 36.8 35.6 34.1 33.6 33.7 32.5 32.6 33.0 31.3 30.5 30.7 30.0 29.5 29.5
27.6 27.8
28.0 26.0
23.0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Durum Wheat Yield Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month
August 12, 2020 2020 U.S. Durum Wheat Production Industry Expectations vs NASS
Billion Bushels 0.070
0.065
0.060
0.055
0.050 July August Final
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Field Crops Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Unit Production Unit (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units) Barley 2,797 2,232 78.8 Bu 175,917 Bu % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↑ 3.5 ↑ 3.6 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 2.8 ↑ 2.3 ↑ 1.4 ↑ 3.7 Pima Cotton 195 190 1,402 Lb 555 Bale % Change from Previous Estimate NC N/A N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season ↓ 14.7 ↓ 15.0 ↓ 4.8 ↓ 19.1 Upland Cotton 11,990 9,057 929 Lb 17,525 Bale % Change from Previous Estimate NC N/A N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season ↓ 11.2 ↓ 20.5 ↑ 14.7 ↓ 8.9 Dry Edible Beans 1,628 1,571 2,088 Lb 32,807 Cwt % Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 2.5 ↑ 2.5 N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season ↑ 26.5 ↑ 33.5 ↑ 18.0 ↑ 57.6 Alfalfa Hay N/A 16,352 3.16 Ton 51,660 Ton % Change from Previous Estimate N/A NC N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 2.3 ↓ 3.7 ↓ 5.9 Other Hay N/A 36,029 2.04 Ton 73,590 Ton % Change from Previous Estimate N/A NC N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 1.0 ↓ 1.4 ↓ 0.5
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Field Crops Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Unit Production Unit (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units) Hops N/A 59.2 1,982 Lb 117,229 Lb % Change from Previous Estimate N/A NC N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 4.6 ↑ 0.1 ↑ 4.6 Oats 3,134 998 65.0 Bu 64,907 Bu % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 0.3 ↓ 0.2 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 11.5 ↑ 20.8 ↑ 1.1 ↑ 22.1 Peanuts 1,514 1,473 4,218 Lb 6,213,200 Lb % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season ↑ 6.0 ↑ 5.8 ↑ 6.8 ↑ 13.0 Rice 2,921 2,870 7,600 Lb 218,112 Cwt % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season ↑ 15.0 ↑ 16.1 ↑ 1.7 ↑ 18.1 Sorghum 5,620 4,845 76.6 Bu 371,055 Bu % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season ↑ 6.7 ↑ 3.6 ↑ 4.9 ↑ 8.7
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Field Crops Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Unit Production Unit (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units) Sugarbeets 1,148 1,127 31.4 Ton 35,393 Ton % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season ↑ 1.4 ↑ 15.1 ↑ 7.5 ↑ 23.8 Sugarcane N/A 924 36.2 Ton 33,478 Ton % Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↑ 0.4 N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 1.2 ↑ 3.4 ↑ 4.8 Tobacco N/A 197 1,892 Lb 372,340 Lb % Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↑ 3.9 N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 13.4 ↓ 8.2 ↓ 20.4 All Wheat 44,250 36,678 50.1 Bu 1,837,637 Bu % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↑ 0.8 ↑ 0.8 % Change from Previous Season ↓ 2.0 ↓ 1.3 ↓ 3.1 ↓ 4.3
August 12, 2020 August 2020 Noncitrus Fruit Production
Apple Production Production Unit United States (1,000 Units) Billion Pounds 13.0 11.9 11.5 11.6 Apples 10,650,000 Lb 12.0 11.0 10.5 10.7 11.0 10.1 10.2 9.4 % Change from Previous Estimate N/A 10.0 9.0 9.0 % Change from Previous Season ↓ 3.3 8.0 7.0 Cranberries 8,970 Brl 6.0 5.0 % Change from Previous Estimate N/A 4.0 3.0 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 13.3 2.0 1.0 0.0 Grapes 7,180 Ton 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change from Previous Estimate N/A % Change from Previous Season ↑ 4.5 Grape Production United States Peaches 646 Ton Million Tons
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A 10.0 9.0 8.63 % Change from Previous Season ↓ 5.3 7.88 8.0 7.53 7.62 7.70 7.60 7.41 7.38 7.18 6.87 Pears 800 Ton 7.0 6.0 % Change from Previous Estimate N/A 5.0 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 9.7 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
August 12, 2020 Selected Upcoming Reports
Cattle on Feed August 21 Rice Stocks
August 26 Citrus Fruits
August 28 Agricultural Prices
Cotton System September 1 Fats & Oils Grain Crushings
Cotton Ginnings September 11 Crop Production
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