Earth Syst. Dynam., 3, 1–17, 2012 www.earth-syst-dynam.net/3/1/2012/ Earth System doi:10.5194/esd-3-1-2012 Dynamics © Author(s) 2012. CC Attribution 3.0 License. No way out? The double-bind in seeking global prosperity alongside mitigated climate change T. J. Garrett Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA Correspondence to: T. J. Garrett (
[email protected]) Received: 21 March 2011 – Published in Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss.: 6 April 2011 Revised: 3 December 2011 – Accepted: 31 December 2011 – Published: 5 January 2012 Abstract. In a prior study (Garrett, 2011), I introduced a may be in a double-bind. If civilization does not collapse simple economic growth model designed to be consistent quickly this century, then CO2 levels will likely end up ex- with general thermodynamic laws. Unlike traditional eco- ceeding 1000 ppmv; but, if CO2 levels rise by this much, nomic models, civilization is viewed only as a well-mixed then the risk is that civilization will gradually tend towards global whole with no distinction made between individual collapse. nations, economic sectors, labor, or capital investments. At the model core is a hypothesis that the global economy’s cur- rent rate of primary energy consumption is tied through a 1 Introduction constant to a very general representation of its historically ac- cumulated wealth. Observations support this hypothesis, and Despite decades of public awareness of the potential for fos- indicate that the constant’s value is λ = 9.7 ± 0.3 milliwatts sil fuel consumption to lead to dangerous climate change, per 1990 US dollar.