Guardians Entrapped: the Demise of the Turkish Armed Forces As a Veto-Player Tuba Eldem Doctor of Philosophy Political Science, University of Toronto 2013
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Guardians Entrapped: The Demise of the Turkish Armed Forces as a Veto-Player Tuba Eldem A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Political Science 2013 University of Toronto © Copyright by Tuba Eldem Abstract: Guardians Entrapped: The Demise of the Turkish Armed Forces as a Veto-Player Tuba Eldem Doctor of Philosophy Political Science, University of Toronto 2013 This study examines how and why Turkey’s civil-military relations regime transformed since the soft coup of 28 February 1997. It argues that major changes in the international security structure –the renaissance of democratic control of armed forces, the change of US foreign policy in the Broader Middle East, and the process of Europeanization – opened a window of opportunity for demilitarization in Turkey. The recognition of Turkey’s EU membership candidacy at the Helsinki Summit of December 1999 and the required alignment of Turkey’s civil-military relations with that of EU best practices were the most important external factors that altered Turkey’s domestic political opportunity structure in favor of change. Voter re- alignment in the November 2002 elections, the emergence of a single-party government with a strong will to change the domestic balance of power in its own favor, and the domestic mobilization of opposition to the military mediated between the EU’s external pressure and domestic change. The military, in turn, failed to veto reforms that targeted its own prerogatives as such an action would generate substantial cost to its ideational interests including loss of prestige, credibility, and legitimacy as a result of being perceived as obstructing Turkey’s century-old Westernization-cum-modernization process. An analysis of the behavioral, attitudinal, and institutional dimensions of democratic control shows that in the post-Helsinki period Turkey has not attained democratic control of the armed forces, but instead has shifted from the tutelary regime category to the defective democratic control category. Regarding the implications of this institutional change for the trajectory of Turkey’s democratization, the study does not provide as optimistic a view as those advanced by the country’s liberal and Muslim intellectuals. By conceptually differentiating between civilianization and democratization, this study argues that although the Turkish regime has become substantially civilianized in the last decade – i.e., political power has shifted markedly into the hands of civilians – the extent of the regime’s democratization failed to match this level of civilianization. ii Acknowledgments The completion of this dissertation has been very rigorous and difficult, involving years of thinking, occasional road-blocks, and challenges. It could not, therefore, have been completed without the encouragement and support of my family as well as my supervisor. First of all, I owe much to Professor Jeffrey Kopstein who – despite the inconveniences I must have caused, academically or otherwise – has been always constructive and encouraging. Prof. Kopstein has meticulously and patiently read several drafts of this long study and provided me with insightful suggestions. Without his support and guidance, I would not be able to easily overcome the hard times of completing the dissertation-writing process. I also owe much to Professor Lawrence Leduc for his constructive criticisms of several drafts of the dissertation, which have been inspiring for me, especially in my thinking on political parties and democratization. I would also like to thank Professors Lucan Way, Seva Gunitsky and Samuel Fitch for their valuable comments, criticisms and recommendations at critical junctures in my scholarly life. I hope I have developed my own independent thinking and added on to what I learned from them. I also would like to take this opportunity to thank Lisel Hintz for her in-depth overview of this dissertation and for her invaluable comments and criticisms as well as Bill Flanik, Olga Klymenko, Tutku Aydin, and Joanna Plett for providing comments on the earlier draft of this study. I wish also to extend my thanks to the interviewees, who made time in their busy schedules to answer my questions and shared their valuable experience and insights on Turkish politics and civil-military relations. Finally, I would like to dedicate this work to my family for their love, encouragement, and unceasing support. I am grateful for having such an understanding and supportive family, who has never lost trust in me and always encouraged me to complete this study and to achieve one of my main ambitions. It is to them that I dedicate this thesis. Table of Contents Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................ iii List of Tables .............................................................................................................................. viii 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 The Research Question ................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Putting the Turkish Puzzle into Context (or Why the Turkish Case Puzzling for the CMR Literature?) ..................................................................................................................... 4 1.3 The Argument ................................................................................................................ 10 1.4 Methodology ................................................................................................................... 19 1.5 Roadmap ........................................................................................................................ 24 2 EXPLAINING THE POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT AND DISENGAGEMENT OF ARMED FORCES: AN EXAMINATION OF THE RELEVANT LITERATURE ............. 28 2.1 Conceptualization of Democratic Control of Armed Forces ..................................... 30 2.2 Typology of Civil-Military Relations Regimes ............................................................ 32 2.3 Review of the Literature and the Analytical Framework .......................................... 36 2.3.1 International Opportunity Structure .......................................................................... 38 2.3.2 Domestic Opportunity Structure ............................................................................... 50 2.3.3 Organizational Motives ............................................................................................. 55 3 HISTORICAL LEGACIES AND THE GUARDIANS OF THE REPUBLIC ............... 62 Deconstructing the Guardians of the Turkish Republic ..................................................... 63 3.1 Historical Legacies and Path-dependent Development of Turkey’s CMR .............. 64 3.2 Review of the Literature on Turkish Military Interventions .................................... 73 3.3 The 27 May 1960 Intervention ..................................................................................... 75 3.3.1 Socio-political and socio-economic instability ......................................................... 75 3.3.2 Public legitimacy of the 1960 intervention and civil-military coalitions .................. 76 3.3.3 International factors and responses ........................................................................... 77 3.3.4 Coup outcomes .......................................................................................................... 79 3.4 Rebalancing the Second Republic: The March 12, 1971 Intervention and the March 12 Regime (1971-1973) ............................................................................................................ 79 3.4.1 Socio-political instability: Rise of popular activism (1961-1971) ............................ 80 3.4.2 International response to the military’s interim regime (1971-73) ........................... 82 iv 3.4.3 Outcomes of the March 12 memorandum and the military regime .......................... 83 3.5 The 12 September 1980 Coup and September 12 Regime ......................................... 85 3.5.1 Socio-political instability: 1973-1980 ....................................................................... 85 3.5.2 Socio-economic instability ........................................................................................ 87 3.5.3 International responses to the military regime (1980-1983) ..................................... 88 3.6 Comparison of military coups in Turkey .................................................................... 92 3.7 The military-controlled transition to democracy and the Establishment of the Third Turkish Republic (1983-1991) .................................................................................... 96 4 THE END OF THE COLD WAR AND ORGANIC CRISIS IN TURKEY ................. 106 4.1 The End of the Cold War and the Changing External Security Environment ..... 106 4.2 Capacity and Legitimacy of Civilian Governments (1991-2002) ............................ 113 4.3 Rise of Political Islam .................................................................................................. 116 4.4 Process of 28 February Post-modern Coup (1996-2002) ......................................... 121 5 THE MAKING OF 21ST CENTURY TURKEY: INTERNATIONAL AND DOMESTIC PROCESSES, MOVEMENTS, AND ACTORS ............................................