The State of Environmental Migration 2015
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International Organization for Migration (IOM) The State of Environmental Migration 2015 A Review of 2014 Edited by François Gemenne Caroline Zickgraf Dina Ionesco With the support of Bosnia and Herzegovina Russia Floods Infrastructure projects China Pollution Pakistan Drought Chad Bangladesh Lake depletion Mexico Floods Tropical storm Columbia Nigeria Industrial development Growing environmental vulnerability Indonesia Floods Fiji Sea-level rise Contents Introduction 5 Africa A Shrinking Lake and a Rising Insurgency 13 Violence and Displacement in Northern Nigeria 31 Asia-Pacific Floods and Rural-Urban Migration in Bangladesh 51 Drought in Tharparkar: From Seasonal to Forced Migration 65 Cancer Villages in China 77 Displacement and Resettlement Following the Ludian Earthquake in China 89 The Jakarta floods of Early 2014: Rising Risks in one of the World’s Fastest Sinking Cities 103 From Vunidogoloa to Kenani: An Insight into Successful Relocation 121 The Americas When Mining Moves People: Development-Induced Displacement and Resettlement in La Guajira, Colombia 145 The Correlation between Environmental Disasters and Migration Trends in Chiapas, Mexico 169 Europe The May 2014 Floods in Bosnia and Herzegovina 187 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi: An Environmental and Human-Rights Disaster 203 Biographies 221 With the support of IMISCOE and of the European project EDGE: Environmental Diplomacy and Geopolitics IMISCOE is Europe’s largest network of scholars in the area of migration and integration. The network involves 36 member institutes and over 500 scholars from all over Europe and focuses on comparative research, publications, the organization of events, PhD training and awards and communication. The network supports more than 30 research clusters and the IMISCOE annual conferences have become a key item in the agenda of most scholars in our field. Furthermore, the network publishes various book series (a Research Series and a Text Book Series) and the journal Comparative Migration Studies. The EDGE project is supported by the Horizon 2020 EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation. Disclaimer – IOM The opinions expressed in the report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Organization for Migra- tion (IOM). The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout the report do not imply the expression of any opinion what- soever on the part of IOM concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning its frontiers or boundaries. IOM is committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefits migrants and society. As an intergovernmental orga- nization, IOM acts with its partners in the international community to: assist in meeting the operational challenges of migration; advance understanding of migration issues; encourage social and economic development through migration; and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants. www.iom.int All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, elec- tronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. SEM 2015 4 DINA IONESCO, FRANÇOIS GEMENNE, CAROLINE ZICKGRAF Introduction ur fifth annual publication, The State of Environmental Migration 2015: Review of the Year 2014, highlights once again the growing importance of environmental changes as migration drivers. The State of Environmental Migration is an opportunity for Masters students to explore research on the topic, analyze current trends and to propose policy recommendations. As in previous years, this issue seeks to document both the major and uncovered environmental events that have induced migration and displace- ment in the year 2014. The case studies presented, from both developed and devel- Ooping countries across the world, shed light on the relationship between climate change, the environment and human mobility. The State of Environmental Migration series is produced by graduate students enrolled in the “Environment and Migration” course at the Paris School of Inter- national Affairs (PSIA) of Sciences Po, taught by François Gemenne and Caroline Zickgraf. Through the student-selected case studies, this issue presents empirical evidence that provides insights into the analysis of the changing dynamics of envi- ronment and climate change-related migration and displacement. THE YEAR 2014: RESEARCH AND POLICY DEVELOPMENTS IN REVIEW Increased Evidence Linking Human Mobility and Climate Change The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2014 Report1 stated once again that climate change is projected to increase the displacement of people. Yet the year 2014 showed once again that such displacements were already a present reality, and not just a future risk. Particularly vulnerable populations are those that lack the resources for planned migration and experience higher exposure to extreme weather events, especially in developing countries with low income. Rural areas are expected to experience major impacts on water availability and supply, food security, infra- structure and agricultural incomes, including shifts in the production areas of food and non-food crops around the world. Expanding opportunities for mobility can reduce vulnerability for affected populations. Changes in migration patterns can be responses to both extreme weather events and longer-term climate variability and change, and migration can also be, in some cases, an effective adaptation strategy. 1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report SEM 2015 5 DINA IONESCO, FRANÇOIS GEMENNE, CAROLINE ZICKGRAF INTRODUCTION New Data on Displacement due to Natural Disasters in 2014 The Global Estimates Report2 released in July 2015 by the Internal Displacement Moni- toring Centre (IDMC) offers evidence that 19.3 million people were displaced in 2014 by natural disasters worldwide. Of that 19.3 million, 17.5 million people were displaced by disasters related to weather hazards, primarily typhoons and floods. The remaining 1.7 million people were displaced by disasters related to geophysical hazards, mainly earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Approximately 700 events were recorded during the year, 33 of which caused the displacement of over 100,000 people. In 2014, the likelihood of being displaced by a disaster was 60% higher than it was merely four decades ago. Displacement levels between 2008-2014 have been highest in the middle- income countries of Asia and the Pacific. The urban population boom in middle- income countries means that rapidly increasing numbers of people are exposed to hazards, and many of them remain vulnerable. Lower middle-income countries make up 36% of the world’s population, but account for 61% of displacement in 2014, high- lighting how such countries are disproportionately affected by disaster displacement. Overall in 2014, Asia was worst affected by displacement associated with disasters, with 16.7 million people forced to flee their homes in the region. Countries with the highest levels of displacement in 2014 were the Philippines (5.79 million), China (3.61 million), and India (3.43 million.) Disasters related to floods, storms, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions in these three countries accounted for 15 of the 20 largest displacement evens in 2014. Typhoon Rammasun (locally known as Glenda) displaced just short of 3.5 million people across the Philippines, China, and Vietnam. Typhoon Hagupit (locally known as Ruby) displaced 1.8 million in the Philippines. And, the Odisha floods displaced just over 1 million in India. Future Estimates of Slow-onset Environmental Degradation’s Effect on Human Mobility While there is available data presented on sudden-onset natural disasters and displace- ment, there is a lack of quantitative, empirical evidence showing how slow onset environmental disasters affect human mobility in the year 2014. However, there are links being studied and some projected future estimates available. For example, land degradation has been exacerbated by climate change and is becoming a relevant trigger of displacement. The UNCCD 2014 Desertification Report3 estimates that by 2020 about 60 million people could move from the desertified areas of sub-Saharan African towards North Africa and Europe. Also, UN Water estimates that by 2025, 1.8 billion people will be living in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity, while two-thirds of the global population could be experiencing water stress, which could in turn lead to voluntary or forced migration. Policy developments The relationship between human mobility, climate change and the environment has seen increasing relevance in the international policy sphere in 2014. “Climate induced migration, displacement and unplanned relocation” have been previously recognized in the Decision on Adaptation4 adopted in Cancun in 2010 and the Deci- sion on Loss and Damage5 adopted in Doha in 2012. In 2014, policies have continued to build on these agreements and increased attention has been paid to the issue, as witnessed across policy sectors and political levels. 2. IDMC 2015 Global Estimates 3. UNCCD 2014: Desertification, the Invisible Frontline 4. Cancun Adaptation Framework (CAF) 2010, decision 1.CP/16 paragraph 14 (f) 5. Doha Climate Gateway 2012, decision 3.CP/18 paragraph 7 (a) (vi) SEM 2015 6 Advances in International Climate Policy The