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Renewable Energy Is a Strategic Option for KSA

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Renewable Energy Is a Strategic Option for KSA Renewable Energy is a Strategic Option for KSA Eng. Hamed A. Al Saggaf IPP & RE Sector Executive Director Saudi Electricity Company 1 Content Demand Challenges Renewable RE is a Strategic Option Energy is a Strategic SEC Initiatives Option for KSA RE Challenges KSA Initiatives of RE 2 Demand Challenges 140 122,6 GW 119,0 120 115,7 112,0 105,7 99,7 100 94,0 88,7 83,7 79,0 80 74,5 70,3 66,3 62,3 62,5 59,0 56,5 60 53,9 51,9 48,4 45,7 41,2 38,0 40 35,0 29,9 31,2 26,3 27,8 23,6 23,9 21,7 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 3 RE is a strategic option Production and consumption of oil in Saudi Arabia ~16 Current technical production limits Oil Production 14 11.6 10.9 11.1 11.5 10.7 ~12 12 10.5 10.3 10.7 10.1 9.7 11.5 10 8 Oil Consumption 6 4 Million Barrel/Day Million 3.1 2 0 2013 2045 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2004 Production Year Oil consumption Available for Export 4 RE is a strategic option The average of levelized electricity cost Generating Types – Subsidized Fuel Price Generating Types – Market Fuel Price 1200 1200 1062 1062 1000 1000 800 706 800 655 706 751 751 SAR/MWh SAR/MWh 600 600 354 340 379 354 379 400 314 400 314 340 392 275 312 354 392 275 174 200 108 232 261 253 85 92 213 200 218 213 232 171 158 119 171 158 69 74 91 0 0 PV PV CSP ISCC CSP SCGT CCGT ISCC Wind SCGT CCGT Wind Steam Steam Nuclear Nuclear PV Storage PV PV PV Storage Geo-Thermal Geo-Thermal 5 RE is a strategic option Comparison of Fuel Prices $/Barrel 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Diesel ($/bbl) Crude oil ($/bbl) Heavy Oil ($/bbl) Gas ($/MMBTU) PV Breakeven SEC new Price International 6 RE is a strategic option RE VS Annual peak load Monthly average for solar energy SEC Contribution during peak load 8000 70 62,3 61,4 7000 57,8 60 56,6 54,4 53,7 6000 46,7 /day 50 2 42,4 5000 41,0 36,6 40 35,2 4000 34,3 3000 30 Watt hour/m Watt 2000 20 1000 10 0 0 Jul-15 Jan-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Apr-15 Feb-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Jan-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Apr-15 Feb-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Mar-15 May-15 25 stations in KSA for solar radiation monitoring Load GW 7 RE is a strategic option KSA Resources of RE Wind Speed (m/second) Solar Radiation • Wind speed at high potential areas • Average sunrise 8.4 to 9.2 hour/day 8.5 m second/year • KSA receives highest rate of solar radiations • Expected generation 400 – 700 kWh/m2 2080 to 2450 kWh/m2/year • KSA Wind energy potentials 100–175 TWh/year • Solar PV potentials 732-953 TWh/year 8 SEC Initiatives Selected sites for SEC renewable energy initiatives Waad Al Shamal Al Guryat Al Aqaba Al Jouf Rafha Duba Madinah Hurimla Umloj Mahd Al Dhahab Layla Al Aflag Joba Al Laith Najran Farasan Sharora 9 SEC Initiatives Drivers for SEC initiatives High cost of KSA has the natural generation in resources of sun and selected areas wind high cost of diesel fuel transportation to High cost of diesel remote areas consumption 10 SEC Initiatives Current status on RE (SEC): Operational Projects Capacity (KW) Farasan Solar PV 500 Project 2 Rooftop on 2 60 Schools Ongoing Projects: Capacity (MW) SEC Vision for RE: Duba CSP 50 Explore RE Resources in the Wa’ad Al-Shamal CSP 50 Kingdom to save liquid fuel, reduce emissions, protect environment and Solar PV Layla Aflaj 10 – 50 improve public health. Huraymila Wind 2.7 Capacity Expected Initiated Projects (MW) Operation Al Jouf IPP PV 80 Rafha IPP PV 20 End by 2017 Umluj IPP Wind 50 11 RE Challenges Subsidy on Fuel Technological RE Impacts on Aspects Grid Stability Harsh Climate Operational Practices & Reserve Management 12 KSA Initiatives of RE Adding 9.5 GW of RE to National Energy Mix Adding 3.45 GW of RE to National Energy Mix Sector Structure and Commercial Model: Best Practices Based on our benchmarks Ministry of energy to control the Integrated Resource Planning process and Strong Policy Making support its implementation Integrated IPP procurement for both conventional and Renewable Energy to exist within conventional and RE one entity – Principal Buyer procurement Clarity of A procurement model with well-defined evaluation and qualification criteria, procurement process transparent and eliminate conflict of interest. Remove private sector hurdles by providing land, conducting geotechnical, De-Risking Private environmental and interconnection studies. SLA’s will need to be signed Sector Investments between concerned stakeholders Cost-recovery Ensure cost recovery for IPP investors through an independent body. assurances All key principles are adhered (e.g. transparent, competitiveness, and no conflict Governance of interest, etc.), the Boards/IPP office representation need to be ‘Neutral’ 15 High Annual GHI Potential Cities (kWh/m2/year) Note: 1.Area I (High) ;≥ 2,400 kWh/m2/year 2.Area II (Medium); ≥ 2,200 to 2,399 kWh/m2/year SHAQRA (Area II) Average GHI: 2,245 kWh/m2/year Peak Load: 2.5 MW 11th RIYADH R. Station (Area II) Average GHI: 2,256 kWh/m2/year Peak Load: 10,819 MW 10th TABUK (Area II) RIYADH KA Care City (Area II) Average GHI: 2,237 kWh/m2/year Average GHI: 2,307 kWh/m2/year Peak Load; 975 MW Peak Load: 10,819 MW 13th 6th Timaa (Area II) AL-DAWADMI (Area II) Average GHI: 2,292 kWh/m2/year Average GHI: 2,285 kWh/m2/year Peak Load: 1,217 MW Peak Load: MW 8th 9th MADINAH Taibah (Area II) LAYLA Aflaaj (Area II) 2 Average GHI: 2,234 kWh/m2/year Average GHI: 2,336 kWh/m /year Peak Load: 263 MW Peak Load: 110 MW th 15th 4 TAIF (Area II) WADI ADDASIR (Area II) Average GHI: 2,321 kWh/m2/year Average GHI: 2,336 kWh/m2/year Peak Load: 100 MW Peak Load: 316 MW 5th 3rd RANIA (Area II) AL BAHA (Area II) AFIF (Area II) NAJRAN (Area I) SHARURAH (Area I) Average GHI: 2,234 kWh/m2/year Average GHI: 2,237 kWh/m2/year Average GHI: 2,292 kWh/m2/year Average GHI: 2,438 kWh/m2/year Average GHI: 2,424 kWh/m2/year Peak Load: 89 MW Peak Load: 52.5 MW Peak Load: MW Peak Load: 483 MW Peak Load: 126 MW 14th 12th 7th 1st 2nd 15 High Wind Potential Areas of Saudi Arabia 15 13 Near Bni Saad Al Bad’ Area II : 200 km2 2 Area II : 50 km Wind Speed; 7.7 – 8.2 m/s Wind Speed; 7.7– 8.3 m/s Esti. Potential; 800 MW 1 Esti. Potential; 200 MW 14 Near Shigry Area II : 100 km2 Near Sehat 2 Wind Speed; 7.8– 8.1 m/s Area II : 100 km Esti. Potential; 400 MW Wind Speed; 7.9 – 8.2 m/s Esti. Potential; 400 MW 12 Aqaba Area I: 500 km2 Wind Speed; 9.5–12 m/s 11 Bil Haris Esti. Potential; 2,000 MW Area II : 100 km2 Wind Speed; 7.7 – 8.1 m/s Esti. Potential; 400 MW 2 10 Alkaleba Baha Area II : 150 km2 Wind Speed; 7.7 – 8.3 m/s Near Sharmaa Esti. Potential; 600 MW Area II: 400 km2 Wind Speed; 8 – 9 m/s Esti. Potential; 1,600 MW 9 Shaib Al Arar Area II: 100 km2 Wind Speed; 7.7 – 8.5 m/s 3 Esti. Potential; 400 MW Al Baha Area II : 70 km2 Alkhuraybah Wind Speed; 7.7 – 8.1 m/s Area II: 200 km2 Esti. Potential; 250 MW Wind Speed; 7.8 – 8.7 m/s 8 Esti. Potential; 800 MW Alshadakh Near Abshakeyr Halaba Aseer Bani Amr Area II : 225 km2 Area II: 325 km2 Area II : 150 km2 Area II : 100 km2 Wind Speed; 7.8– 8.3 m/s Wind Speed; 7.6– 8.1 m/s Wind Speed; 7.8 – 8.2 m/s Wind Speed; 7.9 – 8.3 m/s Esti. Potential; 850 MW Esti. Potential; 1,300 MW Esti. Potential; 600 MW Esti. Potential; 400 MW 4 5 6 7 .
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