Renewable Energy is a Strategic Option for KSA
Eng. Hamed A. Al Saggaf IPP & RE Sector Executive Director Saudi Electricity Company
1 Content
Demand Challenges
Renewable RE is a Strategic Option Energy is a Strategic SEC Initiatives Option for KSA RE Challenges
KSA Initiatives of RE
2 Demand Challenges
140
122,6 GW 119,0 120 115,7 112,0 105,7 99,7 100 94,0 88,7 83,7 79,0 80 74,5 70,3 66,3 62,3 62,5 59,0 56,5 60 53,9 51,9 48,4 45,7 41,2 38,0 40 35,0 29,9 31,2 26,3 27,8 23,6 23,9 21,7 20
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
3 RE is a strategic option
Production and consumption of oil in Saudi Arabia
~16 Current technical production limits Oil Production 14 11.6 10.9 11.1 11.5 10.7 ~12 12 10.5 10.3 10.7 10.1 9.7 11.5 10 8 Oil Consumption 6 4
Million Barrel/Day Million 3.1
2 0
2013 2045
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2004 Production Year Oil consumption Available for Export
4 RE is a strategic option
The average of levelized electricity cost
Generating Types – Subsidized Fuel Price Generating Types – Market Fuel Price 1200 1200 1062 1062 1000 1000
800 706 800 655 706
751 751
SAR/MWh
SAR/MWh 600 600
354 340 379 354 379 400 314 400 314 340 392 275 312 354 392 275 174 200 108 232 261 253 85 92 213 200 218 213 232 171 158 119 171 158 69 74 91
0 0
PV
PV
CSP
ISCC
CSP
SCGT
CCGT
ISCC
Wind
SCGT
CCGT
Wind
Steam
Steam
Nuclear
Nuclear
PV Storage PV
PV Storage PV
Geo-Thermal Geo-Thermal
5 RE is a strategic option Comparison of Fuel Prices
$/Barrel 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Diesel ($/bbl) Crude oil ($/bbl) Heavy Oil ($/bbl) Gas ($/MMBTU)
PV Breakeven SEC new Price International
6 RE is a strategic option RE VS Annual peak load
Monthly average for solar energy SEC Contribution during peak load
8000 70 62,3 61,4 7000 57,8 60 56,6
54,4 53,7
6000 46,7
/day 50 2 5000 41,0 42,4 40 35,2 36,6 4000 34,3
3000 30 Watt hour/m Watt
2000 20
1000 10
0
0
Jul-15
Jan-15
Jun-15
Oct-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Jan-15
Jun-15
Oct-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
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Aug-15
Nov-15
Mar-15 May-15 25 stations in KSA for solar radiation monitoring Load GW 7 RE is a strategic option KSA Resources of RE
Wind Speed (m/second) Solar Radiation
• Wind speed at high potential areas • Average sunrise 8.4 to 9.2 hour/day 8.5 m second/year • KSA receives highest rate of solar radiations • Expected generation 400 – 700 kWh/m2 2080 to 2450 kWh/m2/year • KSA Wind energy potentials 100–175 TWh/year • Solar PV potentials 732-953 TWh/year
8 SEC Initiatives Selected sites for SEC renewable energy initiatives
Waad Al Shamal
Al Guryat
Al Aqaba Al Jouf Rafha
Duba Madinah Hurimla
Umloj Mahd Al Dhahab Layla Al Aflag
Joba
Al Laith Najran Farasan Sharora
9 SEC Initiatives Drivers for SEC initiatives
High cost of KSA has the natural generation in resources of sun and selected areas wind
high cost of diesel fuel transportation to High cost of diesel remote areas consumption
10 SEC Initiatives
Current status on RE (SEC):
Operational Projects Capacity (KW) Farasan Solar PV 500 Project 2 Rooftop on 2 60 Schools Ongoing Projects: Capacity (MW) SEC Vision for RE: Duba CSP 50 Explore RE Resources in the Wa’ad Al-Shamal CSP 50 Kingdom to save liquid fuel, reduce emissions, protect environment and Solar PV Layla Aflaj 10 – 50 improve public health. Huraymila Wind 2.7
Capacity Expected Initiated Projects (MW) Operation Al Jouf IPP PV 80 Rafha IPP PV 20 End by 2017 Umluj IPP Wind 50
11 RE Challenges
Subsidy on Fuel
Technological RE Impacts on Aspects Grid Stability
Harsh Climate Operational Practices & Reserve Management
12 KSA Initiatives of RE
Adding 9.5 GW of RE to National Energy Mix
Adding 3.45 GW of RE to National Energy Mix Sector Structure and Commercial Model: Best Practices Based on our benchmarks
Ministry of energy to control the Integrated Resource Planning process and Strong Policy Making support its implementation
Integrated IPP procurement for both conventional and Renewable Energy to exist within conventional and RE one entity – Principal Buyer procurement
Clarity of A procurement model with well-defined evaluation and qualification criteria, procurement process transparent and eliminate conflict of interest.
Remove private sector hurdles by providing land, conducting geotechnical, De-Risking Private environmental and interconnection studies. SLA’s will need to be signed Sector Investments between concerned stakeholders
Cost-recovery Ensure cost recovery for IPP investors through an independent body. assurances
All key principles are adhered (e.g. transparent, competitiveness, and no conflict Governance of interest, etc.), the Boards/IPP office representation need to be ‘Neutral’
15 High Annual GHI Potential Cities (kWh/m2/year)
Note: 1.Area I (High) ;≥ 2,400 kWh/m2/year 2.Area II (Medium); ≥ 2,200 to 2,399 kWh/m2/year SHAQRA (Area II) Average GHI: 2,245 kWh/m2/year Peak Load: 2.5 MW 11th
RIYADH R. Station (Area II) Average GHI: 2,256 kWh/m2/year Peak Load: 10,819 MW 10th
TABUK (Area II) RIYADH KA Care City (Area II) Average GHI: 2,237 kWh/m2/year Average GHI: 2,307 kWh/m2/year Peak Load; 975 MW Peak Load: 10,819 MW 13th 6th
Timaa (Area II) AL-DAWADMI (Area II) Average GHI: 2,292 kWh/m2/year Average GHI: 2,285 kWh/m2/year Peak Load: 1,217 MW Peak Load: MW 8th 9th
MADINAH Taibah (Area II) LAYLA Aflaaj (Area II) 2 Average GHI: 2,234 kWh/m2/year Average GHI: 2,336 kWh/m /year Peak Load: 263 MW Peak Load: 110 MW th 15th 4
TAIF (Area II) WADI ADDASIR (Area II) Average GHI: 2,321 kWh/m2/year Average GHI: 2,336 kWh/m2/year Peak Load: 100 MW Peak Load: 316 MW 5th 3rd
RANIA (Area II) AL BAHA (Area II) AFIF (Area II) NAJRAN (Area I) SHARURAH (Area I) Average GHI: 2,234 kWh/m2/year Average GHI: 2,237 kWh/m2/year Average GHI: 2,292 kWh/m2/year Average GHI: 2,438 kWh/m2/year Average GHI: 2,424 kWh/m2/year Peak Load: 89 MW Peak Load: 52.5 MW Peak Load: MW Peak Load: 483 MW Peak Load: 126 MW 14th 12th 7th 1st 2nd 15 High Wind Potential Areas of Saudi Arabia
15 13 Near Bni Saad Al Bad’ Area II : 200 km2 2 Area II : 50 km Wind Speed; 7.7 – 8.2 m/s Wind Speed; 7.7– 8.3 m/s Esti. Potential; 800 MW 1 Esti. Potential; 200 MW
14 Near Shigry Area II : 100 km2 Near Sehat 2 Wind Speed; 7.8– 8.1 m/s Area II : 100 km Esti. Potential; 400 MW Wind Speed; 7.9 – 8.2 m/s Esti. Potential; 400 MW 12 Aqaba Area I: 500 km2 Wind Speed; 9.5–12 m/s 11 Bil Haris Esti. Potential; 2,000 MW Area II : 100 km2 Wind Speed; 7.7 – 8.1 m/s Esti. Potential; 400 MW 2
10 Alkaleba Baha Area II : 150 km2 Wind Speed; 7.7 – 8.3 m/s Near Sharmaa Esti. Potential; 600 MW Area II: 400 km2 Wind Speed; 8 – 9 m/s Esti. Potential; 1,600 MW 9 Shaib Al Arar Area II: 100 km2 Wind Speed; 7.7 – 8.5 m/s 3 Esti. Potential; 400 MW
Al Baha Area II : 70 km2 Alkhuraybah Wind Speed; 7.7 – 8.1 m/s Area II: 200 km2 Esti. Potential; 250 MW Wind Speed; 7.8 – 8.7 m/s 8 Esti. Potential; 800 MW
Alshadakh Near Abshakeyr Halaba Aseer Bani Amr Area II : 225 km2 Area II: 325 km2 Area II : 150 km2 Area II : 100 km2 Wind Speed; 7.8– 8.3 m/s Wind Speed; 7.6– 8.1 m/s Wind Speed; 7.8 – 8.2 m/s Wind Speed; 7.9 – 8.3 m/s Esti. Potential; 850 MW Esti. Potential; 1,300 MW Esti. Potential; 600 MW Esti. Potential; 400 MW 4 5 6 7