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Guangzhou Office Market Report Q1 2020 Guangzhou Office Market Report Q1 2020 In Q1 2020, Guangzhou Grade-A office market had the lowest vacancy rate among 4 first-tier cities in China Guangzhou Office Market Report knightfrank.com.cn Q1 2020 GUANGZHOU OFFICE MARKET REPORT Q1 2020 GUANGZHOU OFFICE MARKET REPORT Q1 2020 THE VACANCY RATE Guangzhou Grade-A office market indicators OF GRADE-A OFFICE MARKET IN GUANGZHOU DECREASED SLIGHTLY AND THE RENT NEW SUPPLY RENT VACANY RATE PRICE REMAINED STABLE Q1 2020 None RMB 176 / sqm / month 5.4% RMB 40,111 / sqm FORCAST (Q2 2020) Source: Knight Frank Research outbreak response affect some policies The COVID-19 outbreak also put forward It is expected that from Q2 2020, the and measures to increase support for higher requirements for realty service new supply of Grade-A office market in individual industrial and commercial level of office buildings. In the future, Guangzhou will increase significantly. households”, which stated that state- occupiers would look for Grade-A As such, the vacancy rate of Grade-A owned enterprises should take the office space with higher property office market in Guangzhou is expected lead in helping tenants of state-owned management level, while old buildings to increase, and the downward trend of In Q1 2020, there were no new office projects delivered to the Guangzhou Grade-A assets and who have been significantly with outdated facilities will have less rent will become more obvious. office market, and the stock of Grade-A office market was 5.814 million sqm. With influenced by the outbreak. These demand. Consequently, upgrading of tenants should be offered rent-free for the old office buildings will become the supply of office space remaining unchanged and leasing demand rising during one month and have their rents halved particularly important. the quarter, the vacancy rate of Grade-A office space in Guangzhou declined for the second and third months. slightly by 1.6 percentage points QoQ to 5.4%. In Q1, the average rent in the Guangzhou Despite the decrease in vacancy rate, However, as the overall stock and Grade-A office market declined slightly some office owners lowered their vacancy rate of Guangzhou office RENTS AND PRICES from the previous quarter by 1.1% to rents to compete for tenants due to market are lower than other first-tier In Q1, the average rent for Grade-A 176 RMB per sqm per month, while the the uncertainty of economic outlook cities in China, the office market in office space in Guangzhou was RMB176 vacancy rate declined by 1.6 percentage caused by the domestic and global Guangzhou will remain relatively stable Fig 1. Grade-A office rental and price per sqm per month, down 1.1% QoQ. points from the previous quarter to epidemic, resulting in a drop in the in Q1 2020 and the rent will also remain Price Rental Although the outbreak of COVID-19 5.4%. In the current quarter, despite the rental of Grade-A office buildings in at a relatively stable level. in Q1 brought downward pressure on RMB/sqm/month RMB/sqm outbreak of the novel coronavirus, there Guangzhou this quarter. In the quarter, Grade-A office rent in Guangzhou, some 300 45,000 was no significant impact due to the the submarkets with the biggest QoQ In the short term, the epidemic will have office owners also offer preferential 280 fact that many leasing transactions had declines were Pazhou sub-market and a certain impact on the office market in prices to attract tenants to move 260 40,000 been underway prior to the outbreak. Yuexiu sub-market: the average rent Guangzhou. For instance, the corporate into their office buildings, causing 240 Moreover, there was no new supply in in Pazhou sub-market fell 3.1% QoQ leasing strategy will be conservative, the average rent of Grade-A office in 220 35,000 the Grade-A office market in Guangzhou to 154 RMB per sqm per month, while while expansion plans will be 200 Guangzhou to be relatively stable in this this quarter, so the vacancy rate of the the average rent in Yuexiu sub-market temporarily put on hold. However, at 180 30,000 quarter. However, as the epidemic has Grade-A office market in Guangzhou fell 2.9% QoQ to 136 RMB per sqm per the same time, the development of TMT 160 delayed the demand for relocation and has decreased, especially in Tianhe month. (technology, media, communications) 140 25,000 expansion of enterprises, it is expected North sub-market and Zhujiang New tenants is less affected by the epidemic, 120 that the impact on the performance of Town sub-market. The vacancy rate of Since the beginning of 2020, the while that of the biomedical industry 100 20,000 office buildings will gradually emerge. Tianhe North sub-market decreased by outbreak of COVID-19 has intensified has even been promoted. It is expected Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 In Q1, the lease transactions with large 3.3 percentage points QoQ to 4.6% and the economic downward pressure and that these types of enterprises still need 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 area were recorded, mainly for the Source: Knight Frank Research that of Zhujiang New Town sub-market other negative factors, which brought to be upgraded and expanded. In order professional service tenants. In addition decreased by 1.5 percentage points QoQ a certain impact on the development to support the enterprises to survive, to traditional Guangzhou office markets to 5.2%. of the office market in Guangzhou. Guangdong province issued “About favored by professional service tenants, 2 3 GUANGZHOU OFFICE MARKET REPORT Q1 2020 GUANGZHOU OFFICE MARKET REPORT Q1 2020 some office buildings in emerging some office owners began to reduce in Huangpu district, Zengcheng district markets are being subjected to such the sale price to attract more buyers. and Huadu district. For instance, as SUPPLY AND DEMAND tenant, one typical case was China’s In addition, strata-title office projects an important economic engine of the In Q1 2020, no new Grade-A office Ping An Life Insurance Co., LTD. priced below RMB40,000 per sqm were second CBD of Guangzhou, Huangpu project was completed and delivered Guangdong branch rented a 4,800 sqm more attractive to buyers this quarter Harbor Economic Zone recorded a bulk Fig 2. Grade-A office rental and price in Guangzhou. Therefore, the stock of of office space in Baiyun district of than the same type of projects which transaction of 13,259 sqm for Poly Yuzhu Grade-A office supply (left) Grade-A office net absorption (left) Vacancy rate (right) Grade-A office market in Guangzhou Vanke Sanyuanli Center in Q1. were priced above RMB40,000 per Port office project in Q1, with unit price '000 sqm remained unchanged from the For the strata-title market, the average sqm. In this quarter, compared with of RMB35,000 per sqm. 700 30% previous quarter at 5.814 million sqm. selling price of office buildings in the central area, the strata-title office 600 25% Guangzhou during Q1 was RMB40,111 transactions in the peripheral areas In Q1, the overall vacancy rate of per sqm. Affected by the outbreak, were more active, mainly concentrated 500 Grade-A office buildings in Guangzhou 20% declined 1.6 percentage points QoQ 400 to 5.4%. The drop in vacancy rate was 15% Table 1. Major Grade-A office sub-market indicators, Q1 2020 300 mainly due to the lack of new supply 10% and the rising demand for previously 200 Rent (RMB / Rent Change Vacancy Vacancy Rate Submarket accumulated office leasing from last sqm / month) QoQ Rate Change QoQ 100 5% quarter, especially in Tianhe North Zhujiang New Town 199 ↓0.6% 5.2% ↓1.5% and Zhujiang New Town sub-markets. 0 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Q1 Tianhe North 173 ↓2.8% 4.6% ↓3.3% The supply and demand of Grade-A Source: Knight Frank Research Yuexiu 136 ↓2.9% 5.6% ↓0.7% office building market in Guangzhou were relatively stable in Q1. However, Pazhou 154 ↓3.1% 6.8% ↓0.8% the office supply will increase to account for 11.3% of the total stock Lumina in Yuexiu sub-market and Source: Knight Frank Research significantly in the Q2-Q4 of 2020, of Grade-A office buildings in Q1 2020. the Alibaba Southern China Center with an estimated 657,000 sqm of new It is expected that the vacancy rate of in Pazhou sub-market are expected supply entering the market within the Grade-A office buildings in Guangzhou to deliver in Q2 2020, bringing an Table 2. Major Grade-A office leasing transactions, Q1 2020 year. will gradually increase with the listing additional supply of 130,000 sqm to the of new supply office buildings and the Grade-A office market in Guangzhou. Area District Building Tenant The new supply of Grade-A office weak demand due to the COVID-19 (sq m) buildings in Guangzhou is expected pandemic. Baiyun Vanke Sanyuanli Center Ping An Life Insurance 4,800 Zhujiang New Town Central Tower Colgate 3,200 Banghua International Pazhou HOPSON 1,980 Trade Center INVESTMENT MARKET Source: Knight Frank Research Note: all transactions are subject to confirmation In Q1, the investment market of Grade-A further reduce the cost of capital cash office building in Guangzhou was quiet. flow for foreign investors. No en-bloc transactions were recorded. Table 3. Major Grade-A office strata-title sales transactions, Q1 2020 According to RCA, the proportion of In the short term, the epidemic foreign buyers’ investment amount in 86.3% Area Unit Price District Building has imposed certain impact on the the 2018-2019 period in the market of High value (sq m) (RMB / sq m) transactions investment market of Guangzhou real estate investment transactions with in 2019 Huangpu Poly Yuzhu Port 13,259 35,000 office buildings.
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