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LODDON - CAMPASPE REGIONAL STUDY
Towards Building a Comprehensive Planning and Development Strategy MPE LIBRARY
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MINISTRY FOR PLANt-.UNG AND ENVIRONMENT LIBRARY
LODDON-CAMPASPE REGIONAL STUDY
FINAL REPORT
To wards building a comprehensive
Planning and Development Strategy.
MAY 1 977
711 . 3099 1652074 454 LOO Loddon-Campaspe regional study : towards building a comprehensive planning and development strategy : final report FOREWORD
In the past two decades, there has been increasing concern in the Victorian Community with the economic, social and environmental implications of the continuing concentration of population growth and economic and social opportunities in Melbourne, and the impa~t this has been having on communities outside the metropolitan area. In response to that concern, Governments at all levels have developed policies and programmes designed to enhance the range of economic and social opportunities available in non-metropolitan areas and to bring the process of Government planning and policy formulation closer to residents in those areas. -· In the development of these policies and programmes,it has been widely recognized that if they are to be effective, co-operative action by all levels of Government~ including close consultation with the communities concerned will be essential. The Regional Studies of the Loddon-Campaspe and Central Highlands Regions are an important example of this co-operation. The studies were undertaken by a team drawn from Commonwealth and State Government agencies working together closely under the joint supervision and directio~ of senio~ officers of the agencies involved. The study team undertook extensive discus~ions with munici palities and residents in both regions. The study team was also assisted by the establishment of an Advisory Committee made up of representatives of regional organisations in the two regions which was especially constituted as a source of advice, consultation and review. This widespread involvement of regional and municipal representatives, local residents and community organisations in the Regions with activities undertaken by the professional staff from the participating agencies has facili tated the production of Reports which we believe provide a sound basis for co-operative action by Local, Regional, State and Commonwealth agencies to promote the economic and social welfare of the Regions' residents. For these reasons, we welcome the publication of the Reports which we hope will receive widespread public circul~tion and discussio resulting in the fonnulation of effective policies and programmes to c ~o he future of the Regions.
/•' /:/?<" ,,. ..~ ,,.. ~p 4 /.~~ DIGBY CROZIER, Minister for State Development
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction: Page 1. Stimulus for the Study. 1 2. Aims and Objectives of the Study. 1 3. Conduct of the Study. 2 4. - Study Management. 4 5. Form of Report. 5 6. Acknowledgements. 6 Part One - Appraisal of Capabilities, Opportunities and Problems: • Chapter 1 - The Region in Perspective: 7 1.1 Location and Physical Characteristics. 7 1.2 Historical Development. 7 1.3 The Existing Pattern of Settlement. 8 1.4 Population and Workforce. 11 1.5 The Role of Bendigo. 11 1.6 Regional Economic and Social Linkages. 11 Chapter 2 - Recent Economic and Demographic Trends in the Region: 13 2.1 Population Growth. 13 2.2 Employment Trends. 15 2.3 The Primary Sector. 15 2.4 Manufacturing Industry. 17 2.5 Unemployment. 19 2.6 Building and Construction. 23 2.7 The Tertiary Sector. 25 Chapter 3 - Social Services and Facilities: 27 3 .1 The Organization of S.ervices. 27 ,_ 3.2 Health Care. 28 3.3 Education. 30 3.4 Welfare Services. 31 3.5 Care of the Aged. 31 3.6 Accessibility to Social Services and Facilities. 33 Chapter 4 - Housing, Physical Infrastructure and the Environment: 34 4.1 Housing. 34 4.2 Transport. 35 4.3 Basic Services. 38 4.4 Preservation of the Environment. 43 Part Two - Recommended Planning and Development Strategy: Chapter 5 - Formulating a Regional Planning and Development Strategy: 46 5.1 The Nature of a Regional Planning and Development Strategy. ' -:-46 5.2 State Planning and Development Decisions. 47 5.3 Implications for the Loddon-Campaspe Region. 52 Chapter 6 - Major Influences and Policy Issues: 53 6.1 Demographic and Economic Considerations. 53 6.2 Future Level of Population Growth 55 6.3 Physical Constraints on Development. 56 6.4 · The 'Major Policy Issues. 56 6.5 Economic and Social Opportunities in the Rural Areas. 57 ~' 6.6 Increasing Employment Opportunities in the Urban Areas. 57 6.7 Water Supply. 58 6.8 Care of the Aged. 58 6.9 Growth of Shires Adjacent to Melbourne. 59 6.10 The.Process of Rural Subdivision. 59 6.11 Other Matters of Concern. 60 6.12 Developing a Sense of Regional Identity. 61 Chapter 7 - Recomrnended Regional Planning and Development Strategy: 63 7.1 Regional Goals. 63 7.2 Recommended Policies. 66 7.3 Policy Priorities. 71 7.4 Organising for Implementation. 73
Addendum - Implications of 1976 Census Results 75
L -,1
LIST OF TABLES
Table No.
1. Workforce by industry group, Loddon-Campaspe Region, 9 Bendigo Sub-region, Rest of Loddon-Campaspe Region, 1971.
2. Percentage Distribution of Employed Persons by Industry 10 Sector, Victorian Regions, 1971.
3. Actual and Potential Workforce, Loddon-Campaspe Region, 12 30 June 1971.
4. Average Annual Rates of Population Growth, Non 13 Metropolitan Regions of Victoria, 1966-1975.
5. Employment by Industry, Loddon-Campasp.e Region, 16 Bendigo Sub-region, Rest of Loddon-Campaspe Region, 1966 and 1971 . .•. 6. Manufacturing establishments and employment in major 19 cities in the Loddon-Campaspe Region, 1968-69 to 1972-73.
7. Manufacturing Establishments Opened 20 and Closed in the Bendigo Sub-region 1972-76
8. Estimated Rate of Unemployment in Non Metropolitan 21 Victoria, 1975-76.
9. Ratio of Registered Unemployed to Unfi'lled Vacancies 22 in Non Metropolitan Victoria, 1975-76.
10. Number of new dwellings completed, Bendigo 23 sub-region, 1966-67 to 1974-75.
11. Value of Buildings (other than dwellings) Approved, 24 Bendigo Sub-region, 1971-72 to 1974-75.
12. Number of new dwellings completed in Maryborough, 24 Castlemaine, and Echuca, 1970-71 to 1974-75.
13. Population Distribution by Age Group, Regions of 32 Victoria, 1971.
14. Water Supply in Major Urban Centres of 40 Lcddon-Campaspe Region. \ 15. Sewerage of Urban Centres in the Loddon-Campaspe 42 Region.
16. Areas of Conservation Significance of "High" 44 Vulnerability in the Loddon-Campaspe Region.
17. Areas of Conservation Significance of "Moderate" 45 Vulnerability in the Loddon-Campaspe Region.
18. Potential District and Regional 49 Centres, Victoria. LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Facing Page
1. Location of Region. 8
2. Population Distribution. 8
3. Registered Unemployed and Job Vacancies, Bendigo Employment District, 1972-1976. 20
4. Health Facilities and Accommodation for the Aged. 28
5. Availability of doctors and dentists. 30
6. Primary and Secondary Schools in Loddon-Campaspe Region 30
7. Primary and Secondary Schools, Bendigo Urban Area. 30
8. Net Internal Migration by Age Group, Castlemaine 1966-1971. 32
9. Net Internal Migration by Age Group, Echuca, 1966-1971. 32
10. Existing Transportat~on Network 36
11. Bendigo - Surface Water Resources 40
12. Water Usage Trends and Implications, Coliban System. 40
13. Basic Services, Loddon-Campaspe Region. 44
14. Government Urban and Regional Development Policy Commit tment s. 52
I I l 1
INTRODUCTION
1. STIMULUS FOR THE STUDY
The need for a study which would provide the basis for the formulation of a comprehensive planning and development strategy for the Loddon-Campaspe Region has been recognised for a long time. However, the specific stimulus for a study this time, together with that for a concurrent similar study in the Central Highlands Region, arose out of a visit to Victoria's major provincial centres in October, 1974, by the then Minister for State Development and Decentralization, the Honourable Murray Byrne, M.L.C., and the then Australian Minister for Urban and Regional Development, the Honourable Tom Uren, M.H.R.
At Mr. Byrne's invitation, Mr. Uren accompanied him to Portland, Ballarat, Bendigo, and the Latrobe Valley, in order to gain an understanding of the problems and needs facing these centres and an appreciation of their potential for further development. In 1967, these four centres, together with Wodonga, had been recommended by the Decentralization Advisory Committee in its repo~t "Selection of Places Outside the Metropolis of Melbourne for Accelerated Development", as being the centres outside the Port Phillip Region which should be the subject of programmes and policies for accelerated development, in order to promote a more balanced distribution of population and employment opportunities throughout Victoria.
Activity associated with planning at the regional level has accelerated considerably in the last few years. Regions are increasingly being recognised as the best level at which to tackle major planning and development problems and regional organisations are being established for a variety of purposes. The Victorian Government has formally defined regional boundaries throughout the State, and several State and Australian Government Departments have begun to organise their activities on a regional basis. At the State level, regional planning statements and policies have been issued by a number of Government Departments. In order to assist in developing an appropriate planning framework for the activities of State Government Departments, the Town and Country Planning Board has embarked on a programme of regional planning studies throughout Victoria.
With the above points in mind, and, in view of the significance of Bendigo and Ballarat as the largest urban centres in Victoria, outside the Port Phillip area, the Ministers agreed that the Loddon-Campaspe and Central Highlands Regions, the regions in which these centres lie should be studied first. The agreement to undertake studies of the Loddon-Campaspe and Central Highlands Regions was fully supported by the then Minister for Planning, the Honourable Alan Hunt, M.L.C. Responsibilit~ for their conduct was given to the Town and Country Planning Board and the Department of State Development and Decentralization at the State level and the Cities Commission (now the Department of Environment, Housing and Community Development) at the Common wealth level.
2. AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
The overall aims of the study of the Loddon-Campaspe Region, as well as the study of the Central Highlands Region, were as follows: (a) to determine the role to be played by the regions within the State; (b) to provide a basis for the preparation of regional plans and policies; and (c) to provide a basis for the advising Governments and authorities on appropriate policies to apply in the regions. 2
The specific studY. objectives were to:
~ eval:te the economic,· social and physical ~~ure_§evelopment of the two regions;
(b) establish intra and inter-regional relationships and, in particular, to establish the inter-relationship between the cities of Bendigo and Ballarat and the regions surrounding them; and
(c) assess likely future trends and the problems which might emerge in the absence of new policy interventions.
Additionally, the studies sought to identify means to achieve:-
(a) improved co-ordination of the fWlctions of the many agencies operating within the two study regions, including elimination of any overlapping functions; and
(b) closer working relationships between these agencies.
3. CONDUCT OF THE STUDY
Scope of Studies
The studies were undertaken primarily by a multi-disciplinary team of professional and support staff from the three participating agencies. This team was responsible for identifying and analysing the major economic, social, and physical factors influencing the future planning and development of the Loddon-Carnpaspe and Central Highlands Regions. The basic approach adopted in the Study was to attempt to assess likely future trends in the region in the period up to 1986 in the absence of significant policy intervention by Government. In this way, it was hoped to identify the influence of various economic, social and physical factors on the future of the region, and to formulate recommendations on policies which mig.ht be applied in the region to overcome perceived problems, within the context of more general Commonwealth and State Government policies affecting the future of the region.
More specifically the analysis of the economic, social and physical factors influencing the future of the region incorporated.into the study embraced the following elements:-
(i) Economic: An appraisal aimed at gaining a broad understanding of the economic functioning of each region together with more detailed studies of the economies of selected cities and towns.
(ii) Social: An evaluation of the social or "cultural" characteristics of each region including those relating to housing, education, medical and welfare services, municipal and other public services, transport and communications, conservation and recreation features, and zoning, subdivision and ownership of land.
(iii) .Physical: A broad assessment of each region's physical resources including landforms, geology, soils, climate, hydrology, vegetation, and wildlife, aimed at identifying significant problem areas and where possible, studying those problems in greater detail.
To assist the Study team in its work and to provide a basis for more comprehensive analysis of certain aspects of the regions, consultants were engaged to undertake three specialised studies as follows:- 3
(i} Economic Assessment: A broad study of the region's economy to form the basis for assessing likely future economic trends to the year 1986. Particular emphasis was placed on the need to identify the -factors influencing the nature and level of economic activity in Bendigo:.
(ii} Socio-Economic survey: A survey of households in Bendigo to provide information on -
(a) issues of concern to residents in the area, and the extent to which residents were satisfied with the existing environment and their attitudes to change;
(b) perceived adequacy of existing services; and
(c) groups identified as requiring special assistance.
(iii) Inventory of Non-urban Environments: A survey to determine the relationship between vegetation cover and land tenure, with the purpose of identifying and ranking features of broad conservation and recreation significance according to their present value and vulnerability.
In addition, in order to achieve in particular the third aim of the studies, (i.e. to provide a basis for policy advice to governments), assistance from Local, Regional, State, and Commonwealth agencies was considered essential. All Local Councils, Regional Organizations, and State and Commonwealth Departments and Instrumentalities connected with the region were invited to make submissions giving information on their existing and-proposed facilities, programmes, and policies.
The information provided by these Government authorities in effect .related to the providers of services. To balance it, information from the users of services was needed on perceived needs, problems-and opportunities. This was partly obtained from the Socio-economic Survey of households in the Bend.igo urban area referred to above. In addition, relevant information was obtained from the the local councils and from residents who attended a series of public meetings in the sub-regions or who made individual submissions. By comparing this "provider" and "user" information, it was possible to assess the present and future adequacy of facilities and services, and thereby to identify deficiencies and needs requiring attention. This is not to suggest that after needs have been identified, solutions can be readily provided. Much depends on the costs involved, the availability of funds and the priorities for funding set by governments, councils and other relevant organizations.
It should be noted that although the study attempted to be comprehensive in its coverage of the factors influencing the future planning and development of the Loddon-Campaspe Region, it must be recognised that it was primarily .limited to utilising and deriving assessments and conclusions from existing or readily available data. Consequently, it is not a substitute for the ongoing, more detailed research and planning studies essential for the preparation of a comprehensive regional planning and development programme over a much longer time period.
Geographical Coverage of Studies
The studies of the Loddon-Campaspe and Central Highlands Regions were. conducted simultaneously in order to facilitate data gathering and analysis and to permit relevant inter-regional comparisons. The Victorian Government's regional boundaries were adopted as the basis for data co~lection and analysis.
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Within each region, information was, as far as possible collected for every municipality. However, to facilitate analysis, a series of sub regions were defined. Within each of these a case study town was selected to be used as a basis for appropriate urban studies. In the Loddon Campapse Region, the case study towns were Bendigo, Boort, Castlemaine, Echuca, Kyneton, Maryborough, and St. Arnaud. These were chosen to give a broad sample in terms of population size and geographical distribution.
In recognition of the importance of Bendigo within the region, and in an attempt to build on work already done by the participating agencies in order to obtain results at an early stage, the initial focus of the Study was on Bendigo and its sub-region, and an Interim Report was published on completion of that part of the Study. For purposes of the present study, the Bendigo sub-region has been defined as that area embraced by the boundaries of the following municipalities: Bendigo City, Eaglehawk Borough and the Shires of Huntly, Marong and Strathfieldsaye.
4. STUDY MANAGEMENT
The management framework for the studies comprised four components as follows:-
(i) Policy Co-ordination Committee. Overall responsibility for the studies (including policy guidance and review) was handled by a Policy Co-ordination Committee comprising senior representatives of the Town and Country Planning Board, the Department of State Development and Decentralization, and the Cities Commission.
(ii) Management Group. Responsibility for the detailed design, co-ordination and direction of the study elements (including liaison with consultant's providing assistance in specialized areas) was vested in a Management Group consisting of represent atives from the participating agencies assisted by an administr ative secretary.
(iii) Study Co-ordinator. A Study Co-ordinator was appointed on a full-time basis to co-ordinate the init:. ·,1 process of data collec tion and analysis and to supervise the initial drafting of the study papers (see below) which provide the basis of the present report.
(iv) Advisory Committee. An Advisory Committee was established as a source of advice, consultation and review throughout the study period. Members of the Committee were the members cf the Policy Co-ordination Committee and representatives of each )f the follow ing regional organizations:-
(a) Central Highlands Regional Organization of Councils;
(b) LOddon-Campaspe Regional Organization of Councils;
(c) Central Highlands Regional Council for Social Development Interim Committee;
(d) Loddon-Campaspe Regional Council for Social Development;
(e) Loddon-Campaspe Regional Planning Authority; 5
(f) Central Highlands Regional Tourist Authority;
(g) North Central Regional Tourist Authority;
(h) Ballarat Development Committee; l' (i) Bendigo Development Committee; and ~:
(j} Ballarat and District Joint Town Planning Committee.
5. FORM OF REPORT
This Final Report on the Loddon-Campaspe Regional Study provides a comprehensive summary analysis of. the major factors influencing the future planning and development of the Loddon-Campaspe region, and identifies· the nature of the Government policy decisions required to provide for the economic and social well-being of the residents of the region in the future. The Report is based on the Interim Report for the Study ref erred to in Section 3 above, on a series of Study papers prepared by the staff of the participating agencies, on the consultants' reports, on the submissions from Local Councils, Regional Organisations, and State and Commonwealth Departments and Instrumentalities, and on the information obtained from residents who attended the public meetings or who made individual submissions.
The Report is divided into two parts. Part One summarises the major economic, demographic, social and physical factors which appear likely to influence the future of the region. Part Two is designed to fulfil three separate purposes, viz:
(i) identifying the major issues with which those responsible for the formulation of policies, plans and programmes relating to the future of the region will need to be concerned;
(ii) discussing the nature of the planning and development strategy believed to be appropriate in the Loddon-Campaspe region, having regard to economic, social and demographic trends within and outside the region,and to existing Commonwealth and State Government policies for planning and development in Victoria as a whole;
(iii) outlining the p9licy recommendations emanating from the study.
Study Papers
During the course of the study, the staff members from the participating agencies involved in the study prepared a series of working or "study" papers on the various factors influencing the future development of the region and its component parts. The purpose of these study papers was to collate the available information relating to the various aspects of each region's development and to analyse the implications of that information for the future of the regions. Study papers were prepared on the following topics:-
1. Geology and Soils.
2. Population.
3. Transport and Communications.
4~ Water Resources.
5. Basic Services and Facilities.
; ) As indicated previously, this Final Report draws heavily on the material contained in the Study Papers listed above. Each Study Paper contains a wide range or detailed information relating to· the physicai, economic and social characteristics of the Loddon-Campaspe Region. In addition, Study Papers ·Numbers 8 - 10 inclusive incorporate maLt:!rial derived from the consultant studies. Thus, as well, as providing the detailed basis for the analysis and recommendations contained in the present Report, the material contained in the Study Papers consistutes a reasonably comprehensive data base on which it is believed all those responsible for and interested in the future planning and development of the Loddon·-campaspe region should be able to draw. In order that this material should be available-to as wide a range of persons and organizations as possible, the Study Papers are being published as a separate volume. The nature and size of the Study Papers, however, dictates that only a limited number of copies of the volume containing the Study Papers be produced. Copies of the companion volumes are therefore being distributed to members of the Advisory Committee, to State and Commonwealth Government departments and instrumentalities, and to Local Government Authorities, regional organizations, libraries and tertiary educa tion institutions throughout the region.
6. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Those associated with the study wish to acknowledge the contributions made by the councillors and officers of the municipalities in the region. They also wish to thank the members of the Advisory Committee who provided a vital advisory, consultative and review function for the study. Amongst the organi sations represented on the Advisory Committee, special mention needs to be made of the Loddon-Campaspe Regional Council for Social Development, which organised the sub-regional public meetings, and the Bendigo Development Committee, which provided a great deal of administrative assistance to the study. They also wish to thank the many Commonwealth, Regional, State and businesses which participated in the economic assessment and housing studies, and those persons who made individual submissions in response to requests from the study team. '" --~~E:inall¥~the~study -team ·wi:shes~to·~thank particula:tly"tfie residents of the region who participated in the socio-economic suryey and/or the public meetings conducted during the course of the study.
7. · IMPLICATIONS OF 1976 CENSUS RESULTS
Since the completion of the study, preliminary results from the 1976 census of population and housing have become available. Rather than revising significant sections of the whole Report, the participating agencies agreed that in order that the implications of these census results for the strategies and policies recommended in this Report may be appreciated, a special addendum to this Report should be prepared (see page 75). PART ONE - APPRAISAL OF CAPABILITIES
OPPORTUNITIES AND PROBLEMS 7
CHAPTER 1. THE REGION IN PERSPECTIVE
1.1 Location and Physical Characteristics
The Loddon-Campaspe region covers an extensive area of Victoria (21,600 square kilometres or 9.5% of the total area of the State) extending some 200 kilometres from the Macedon Ranges close to Melbourne in the south to the Victorian border (Murray River) in the north. It lies to the north and west of Melbourne between the Goulburn and Wimmera Regions, and the Central Highlands Region in the south. The location of the Region is illustrated in Figure 1.
North of the Macedon Ranges, the region comprises primarily undulating and then flat grazing and crop land interspersed with areas of native vegetation. Some 3,500 square kilometres of the region (about one-sixth of the region's total area) is covered with natural vegetation or pine plantation, 80% of this land being publicly owned. Many of these areas have a high value for the conservation of flora and fauna and for recreational use. Thus, the Mallee vegetation north of Bendigo, known as the W!iipstick, is a unique flora and fauna asset; the red gum forests along the Murray River are important as wildlife habitat areas, especially for migratory waterfowl. Some of the most important species of flora are located on privately owned land. Clearing has already reduced the original area of native vegetation by as much as one-third in some areas, and pressures on the remaining areas may.be expected to increase, especially on privately owned land.
1.2 Historical Development
The Loddon-Campaspe region was initially settled by squatters in the late 1830's and 1B40's, although the major influx of settlers was experienced in the 1850's when the gold rushes took place. In 1852, the population of Castlemaine and district was about 35,000 persons; Heathcote once boasted 17,000 people and Dunolly's main street was three miles long, to mention but a few examples. Many diggings were deserted, however, as soon as the surface gold gave out. By 1870, mining was mostly confined to the activities of large companies, and by 1900 relatively few people derived their livelihood from gold mining.
On the other hand where the mining activity lasted, or where some diversification of employment took place, urban centres survived and prospered. Development in the region was greatly enhanced by the opening of the Bendigo-Melbourne rail link, via Castlemaine, in 1862 and its subsequent extension to many urban centres in the region in the 1870's and 1880's. This facilitated the diversification of employment activity in the region into secondary and tertiary industries, particularly in centres such as Bendigo, Maryborough, and Castlemaine.
Farming also developed rapidly, especially with the opening up of the full potential of the northern part of the region through irrigation. Some towns, like Kyneton, which had developed as an important source of farm products and services for miners on their way to the diggings, were able to hold their population by turning to servicing the rural community. In the north Gf the region, Echuca developed into Victoria's second largest port (in terms of freight hand~edh transporting mainly wool by paddle steamer down the Murray River. 8
The continued development and prosperity of many urban centres in the region has revolved around substantial manufacturing enterprises established in those centres in the late nineteenth century or in the early part of the twentieth century. Thompson's (Borg-Warner) Ltd. and Castlemaine Woollen Mills, for example, both established in Castlemaine in 1875, and have grown steadily ever since. Similarly, economic activity in Maryborough has revolved around the activities of Maryborough Knitting Mills established in 1923 and Patience and Nicholson engineering works which commenced operations in 1924.
1.3 The Existing Pattern of Settlement
The population of the Loddon-Campaspe region at 30th June, 1971, was approximately 127,000 persons. The pattern of settlement in the Loddon Campaspe region exhibits a distinct hierarchical character, the main features of which are as follows:-
(i) The Bendigo sub-region, whose population in 1971 was 54,249 persons, accounts for some 43% of total population in the region;
(ii) There are three cities (Castlemaine, Maryborough and Echuca), whose populations are in the range 7,000 - 8,000 persons; these together account for 17% of regional population (1971);
(iii) There are seven smaller towns (Kyneton, St. Arnaud, Rochester, Cohuna, Charlton, Woodend, Heathcote) whose populations exceeded 1,000 persons in 1971;
(iv) There are 24 other small towns with populations ranging between 200 and 1,000 persons (1971);
(v) 14.3% of the population of the region reside in rural areas.
The distribution of population in the region is illustrated in Figure.2.
The existing pattern of settlement in the Loddon-Campaspe region reflects the interaction of a number of factors~ the most important of which are as follows:-
\ (a) the primarily rural nature of economic activity in most of the region outside the main urban centres of Bendigo, Maryborough, Castlemaine and Echuca;
(b) the early develOJ:llll!::!Ilt of Bendigo, Castlemaine and Maryborough as guld mining centres and their subsequent consolidation as centres of manufacturing and/or tertiary employment; and
(c) the nature of the transportation network which has developed in the region.
Perhaps the most significant feature of the existing pattern of economic activity in the Loddon-Campaspe region is the variation in the nature of the existing economic base of the various parts of the region. As may be seen from Table 1, the most important form of economic activity in the region outside the Bendigo sub-region is concerned with primary industry. In fact, Table 1 somewhat understates the degree of concentration on primary industry in that part of the region located outside the major cities of Bendigo, Castlemaine, Maryborough and Echuca, since nearly all of the manufacturing employment in the region outside Bendigo is located in Castlemaine and Maryborough. As pointed out above, these centres incorporate well established manufacturing enterprises which obtain their supplies and market their products largely outside the Loddon-Campaspe region. As a result, aso==
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LOCATION OF THE REGION Loddon-Campaspe Region ~
Studies of the Central Highlands & Loddon - Campaspe Regions Fig.1 r,....,.- r I
..,.. ) I __ _,I j '
\ ,,
\ . ' '--.,,,.'---
Over 10000
5000-10000
2500-5000
• 1000-2500 • Less than 1 000 Highway -+--+--+ Railway '"""""" Stre a m ·-• Regional Boundary POPULATION DISTRIBUTION Loddon - Campaspe Region ~ Studies of the Central Highlands & Loddon - Campaspe Regions Fig. 2 l· TABLE 1 WORKFORCE BY INDUSTRY GROUP, LODDON-CAMPASPE REGION, BENDIGO SUB-REGION REST OF LODDON-CAMPASPE REGION, 1971 (PERSONS)
Sector/Industry Leddon Campaspe Bendigo Sub- Rest of Leddon- Bendigo Sub- Ballarat Sub-Region Region Region ·campaspe Region Region as % as % Central Loddon-Campaspe Highlands Region Region No. % No. % ·NO. %
Primary Agriculture 9,085 19.4 1,558 7.8 7,527 28.0 17.1 29.5 Mining 197 0.4 . 49 0.2 148 0.5 26.1 29.5 .Total Primary 9,282 19.8 1,607 8.0 7,675 28.5 17.3 29.5.
Secondary Manufacturing 9,119 19.5 4,457 22.4 4,662 17.3 48.9 79.6 Construction 3,286 7.0 1,531 7 .6 . 1,755 6.5 46.6 61.9 \D Total Secondary 12,405 26.5 1,988 30.0 6,417 23.8 48.3 65.8
Tertiary Electricity 792 1. 7 360 1.8 432 1.6 45.5 81.3 Wholesale & Retail 8,0:\.9 17.1 4,018 20.1 4,001 14.9 50.l 73.8 Transport & Storage 1,886 4.0 897 4.5 989 3.7 47.8 58.5 Communication 980 2.1 405 2.0 575 2.1 41.8 62.7 Finance 1,586 3.4 804 4. o· 782 2.9 50.9 74.1 Public Admin./Def~nce 1,558 3.3 761 3.8 797 3.0 48.8 61.6 Community Service 5,,644 12.1 2,913 14.6 2,731 10.l 51.6 72.4 Entertainment 2,130 4.6 1,095 5.5 1,035 3.8 51.4 '71.0 Other & not stated 1, 779 3.8 648 3.2 1,131 4.2 36.4 61.6 Unemployed 751 1.6 400 2.0 351 1.3 53.3 63 .6 Total Tertiary 25,125 53.7 ,• 12 ,301 61.8 12,824 47.6 49.0 70.1
TOTAL All Ind~stries 46,812 100.0 19 ,896 99.8 26,916 100.0 42.5 66.0
Source: A.B.S. 1971 Census Data - 10 - indicated by Table 2, economic activity in the Loddon-Campaspe region is less dependent on primary industry activity than is the case in any other non-metropolitan region in Victoria, with the exception of the Central Highlands region. In many of the rural Shires in the region, on the other hand~ up to 40% of the resident workforce is engaged in agricultural and pastoral pursuits, primarily the raising of sheep and cattle, dairying, and, in some areas, the growing of crops such as wheat, oats and barley.
The relationship between the transportation network in the region and t~e existing pattern of urban settlement in the region is also illustrated in Figure 2. The transportation network both reflects and reinforces the hierarchical pattern of settlement in the region. Thus, Bendigo lies at the junction of four major highways - the Calder, Midland, Mcivor, and Leddon Valley highways - and is a focal point in the State's road network. This contributes to Bendigo's significant role in the region. On the other hand, many centres in the region are linked to Melbourne by routes which by-pass Bendigo, e.g. Echuca is linked directly to Melbourne by the Northern Highway and St. Arnaud has access to the metropolis via Ballarat by the Sunraysia and Western Highways. This reduces Bendigo's dominance of the region, compared for example with Ballarat in the adjacent Central Highlands region.
TABLE 2
Percentage Distribution of Employed Persons by Industry Sector in Victorian Regions, 1971
Region Primary Secondary Tertiary % .% % Melbourne 1.1 39.3 54.0 Barwon 8.4 40.7 48.3 South Western 34.2 20.7 41.6 Central Highlands 14.2 32.5 49.7 Wimmer a 36.6 14.8 45.0 Northern.Mallee 33.6 13.9 48.1 Loddon-Campaspe 20.3 28.6 47.2 Guulburn 29.5 21.2 45.8 North Eastern 25.3 23.2 47.8 East Gippsland 26.3 22.7 47.0 Central Gippsland 25.0 33.8 37.0
Victoria 7.0 36.4 52.0
AUSTRALIA 8.9 32.8 54.2
Notes: (i) based on ASIC Classifications (ii) regional totals do not add up to 100%; the remainder is classified "Other and Not Stated".
Source: A.B.S. 1971 Census Data. 11
1.4 Population and Workforce
Table 3 illustrates the relationship which exists in the different parts of the Loddon-Campaspe Region between the actual workforce and the 'potential' workforce. The potential workforce is defined as the number of persons who would have been in the workforce had the workforce participation rates in the region for each age/sex grouping been equal to those applying in Victoria as a whole. The difference between the actua~ workforce and the 'potential' workforce calculated in this way is often used to provide a measure of the extent of underutilisation of a region's labour resources. Table 3 suggests that there may be some underutilisation of female labour resources in the main urban centres of the Loddon-Campaspe Region.
1.5 The Role of Bendigo
As indicated by Table 1, most o~ the Loddon-Campaspe region's non-primary economic activity is located in.Bendigo. Apart from the inevitable significance deriving from the fact that it contains more than 40% of the region's population, Bendigo's role in the economic and social life of the region is further enhanced by the fact that it accounts for almost half of the region's total employment in manufacturing and more than half of total regional employment in the important and growing tertiary industries such as community services, finance and wholesale and retail trade; Bendigo functions as the major provider of commercia~, educational, health, and other government services to the surrounding region.
Bendigo's unique role in the Loddon-Campaspe region derives from a number of factors including its early history as a gold mining and railway centre and its subsequent emergence as a major regional service centre. Bendigo contains the region's major livestock saleyards. Many farmers take the opportunity, whilst in Bendigo for livestock sales, to conduct their other business, e.g. banking, retailing, stock and station agent business, thus enabling Bendigo to exert a very large regional influence with respect to these important service functions. Bendigo's influence is further enhanced by the fact that, as may be seen from Figure 2, the Road network in the Loddon-Campaspe region is built around a number of State Highways and major roads which focus on Bendigo. Bendigo also functions as the major railhead in the region, playing a major role in the State network. In f addition Bendigo is the base of the operations of Telecom Australia in a large part of northern Victoria. In recent years, the role of Bendigo as the main centre in its region has been further enhanced by the concentration in Bendigo of major community facilities servicing the whole of the Loddon Campaspe region and beyond (particularly in the fields of education and health) •
1.6 Regional Economic and Social Linkages
It is important to appreciate, on the other hand, that the significance of Bendigo in the economic and social life of the Loddon-Campaspe region is much less than that, for example, of Ballarat in the adjacent Central Highlands region, or of Geelong in the Barwon Region. A number of factors contribute to this situation. In the first place, the region in which Bendigo is located encompasses a much larger area than is the case with Ballarat or Geelong. The Loddon-Campaspe region also contains several large urban centres (Castlemaine, Maryborough and Echuca) with well established economic bases which enable them to function largely independently, (though to varying degrees) of Bendigo. Ballarat's stronger relative position in the Central Highlands Region reflects its closer proximity to, and its position within, the radial transport and communication network serving Melbourne and Geelong. Much of the activity in the Central Highlands Region and beyond necessarily pasges into or through Ballarat. As indicated above, this is not so for Bendigo in the Loddon-Campaspe regiop. TABLE 3 ACTUAL AND·POI'ENTIAL WORKFORCE LODDON-CAMPASPE REGION, 30TH JUNE, 1971
! Actual Workforce Potential Workforce Actual Workforce as % Potential Workforce . : Males Females Persons Males Females Persons Males Females Persons
Bendigo Sub-region 12955 6226 19181 12889 6884 19773 100.4 90.4 97.0
Maryborough 1860 832 2692 1838 941 2779 101'. 2 88.4 96.9 ' Castlemaine 1558 758 2316 1709 814 2523 91.2 93.1 91.8
Echuca 1951 840 2791 1900 944 2844 102. 7 89.0 98 .1 ...... N Rest of Leddon- Campaspe Region 13043 4503 17546 11534 5745 17279 113.1 . 78.4 101.5
Total Region 31377 13159 44536 29870 15328 45198 105.0 85.8 98.5
Source: Calculated from A.B.S., 1971 Census Data. 13
A consequence of these factors is that many centres in the Loddon Campaspe region have closer ties with centres located outside the region than with Bendigo. Thus, the South Eastern Shires of Gisborne, Newham and Woodend, Romsey and, to a lesser degree Kyneton are increasingly being drawn into the shadow of influence of the metropolitan area. Maryborough, as is frequently the case for a centre near or on the border of a region, has close ties with both .Ballarat and Bendigo. Similarly, St. Arnaud has ties with Ballarat and the region to the west. Echuca and Cohuna have relatively tenuous ties with Bendigo, and are more oriented with the Murray River connnunities in Victoria and New South Wales, while Echuca also has strong ties with Shepparton in the adjacent Goulburn Region. 14
CHAPTER 2. RECENT ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN THE REGION
2.1 Population Growth
In 1961, 122,495 persons lived in the Loddon-Campaspe Region. Between· 1961 and 1975 the region's population increased by some 5,500 persons to · 128,180 persons. This represented an average annual rate of growth of population in the region between 1961 and 1975 of 0.3% per annum. As indicated by Table 4, unlike several other regions in non-metropolitan Victoria, the Loddon-Campaspe Region has consistently maintained a positive rate of growth of population during the past decade, although the rates of growth in the Loddon-Campaspe Region have been below those in the Barwon, Goulburn, North East and East Gippsland Regions.
TABLE 4
Average Annual Rates of Population Growth in Non-Metropolitan Regions of Victoria, 1966-1975
Region 1966-71 1971-75 1966-75 % p.a. % p.a. % p.a.
1 Barwon 1.51 1.47 1. 50 2 South West -0.59 -0.74 -0.65 3 Central Highlands 0.55 0.20 0.11 4 Wimmer a -1.55 -1. 71 -1.66 5 Northern Mallee -0.27 -0.25 -0.26 6 Loddon-Campaspe 0.20 0.25 0.22 7 Goulburn 0.40 0.20 0.33 8 North East 0.11 0.99 0.44 9 East Gippsland 1. 36 0.74 1.06 10 Central Gippsland -0.16 -0.09 -0.11
VICTORIA 1. 70 1.23 1.47
Source: Calculated from A.B.S. 1975 Regional Estimates of Population
Similarly, the rate of growth of population in the Loddon-Campaspe Region has been much less than that in the Melbourne Statistical Division, so that the Region's share in total State population has declined consistently over the_period.
Within the Loddon-Campaspe region, much of the population growth was concentrated in the Bendigo sub-region. Only five local Government areas outside the Bendigo sub-region (Cohuna, Echuca, Gisborne, Rochester and Ramsey) recorded population gains during the 1961 - 1975 period. Fourteen of the twenty-seven municipalities in the region declined in population, and in three others (Maryborough City and Kyneton and Pyalong Shires) the population has remained virtually constant since 1961 (e.g. in Maryborough population increased by more than 200 between 1961 and 1971, but the latest estimates indicate that Maryborough's population has fallen since 1~71 to the 1961 level). The decline in population was most pronounced in those municipalities where a high proportion of the population is living in rural areas. Decline in the number of people in rural areas has been the result of prolonged and substantial migration_ from rural areas to cities. In the instance of the Loddon-Campaspe Region, much of the out-migration was destined for Melbourne, but urban areas within the region have also shared in this movement. The proportion of persons in the region living in urban arAas 15
(over 1,000 persons) as opposed to rural areas increased from 62.3% in 1961 to 65.6% in 1971.- The Bendigo Sub-region has steadily increased its share of total regional population from 40.4% in 1961 to 42.8% in 1971 and 44.0% in 1975. In contrast many of the small rural centres have tended to stabilise or decline in population in recent years. At the same time, as elsewhere in Victoria, the major urban centres in the region have also lost population through the out-migration of young people in particular, apparently reflecting the limited range of job opportunities and social facilities available in those cities.
An important feature of the distribution of population growth within the region has been the growth of population in the Shires of Gisborne and Ramsey, as a result of the emerging role of those areas as dormitory suburbs for Melbourne.
2.2 Employment Trends
Identifying the nature of overall employment trends in the Loddon-Campaspe region in recent years is a rather difficult exercise, since the most recent comprehensive data relating to employment by industry in the region (i.e. that derived from the 1971 Census) is now several years out of date. It is possible, however, to draw on other data (e.g. that relating to manufacturing industry derived from successive annual manufacturing censuses and other sources) to obtain some insight into the nature of recent economic trends in the region.
Consideration of this additional data in conjunction wi~h that relating to employment by industry derived from the 1966 and 1971 Censuses shown in Table 5, suggest that the most important features of recent trends in employment in the region may be summarised as follows:
(a) there has been a substantial decline in rural employment in the region particularly in those areas located outside the Bendigo Sub-region;
(b) there has also been a general decline in employment in manufacturing throughout the region, although the experience has varied somewhat between centres;
(c) sub~tantial growth has taken place in tertiary sector employment, particularly in the Bendigo Sub-region.
It would appear that much of the decline in population in the various parts of the Loddon-Campaspe Region in the period since 1961 can be attributed to the decline in employment opportunities which has occurred in most of the region, particularly in rural industry. It is only in those areas where employment growth has occurred that population growth has taken place. It is necessary therefore to comment separately on trends in employment in the region in each of the three major sectors.
2.3 The Primary Sector
As indicated by Table 1 above, at the time of the 1971 Census about 9,100 persons were classified as being in the non-mining primary industries in the Loddon-Campaspe Region,which was 19.4% of the region's total workforce. As in the rest of Victoria, the rural workforce has been consistently declining - in the intercensal period 1966 - 1971 for example, rural employment in the region declined by 14% (see Table 5), a rate of decline which matched that occurring in Victoria as a whole. The decline of rural employment in the Loddon-Campaspe Region was particularly marked in the area south of Bendigo. TA3LE 5 EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, LODDON-CAMPASPE REGION, BENDIGO SUB-REGION REST OF LODDON-CAMPASPE REGION, 1966 - 1971. (PERSONS)
Loddon-Campaspe Region Bendigo Sub ..region Rest of Loddon-Campaspe Region
% % % Persons Persons Change Change Persons Persons Change Change Persons Persons Change Change 1966 1971 '66/71 '66/71 1966 1971 '66/71 '66/71 1966 1971 '66/71 '66/71
Prlimary Ac;:riculture 10617 9085 -1532 -14.4 1804 1558 -246 -13 .6 8813 7527 -1286 -14.6 Mining 231 197 -43 -18.6 41 49 8 19.5 190 -148 -42 -22.1 Total 10848 9282 -1575 -14.5 1845 1607 -238 -12.9 %03 7675 -1328 -14.8 Sec::mdary Manufacturing 9642 911'3 -523 -5.4 4820 4457 -363 -7.5 48.22 4662 -160 -3.3 Construction 4005 3286 -719 17.9 1707 1531 -176 -10.3 22'98 1755 -543 -23.6 Total 13647 12405 -1242 -9.1 6527 5988 -539 -8.2 7120 6417 -703 -9.9 ...... O'I Ter:.iary Electricity 1004 792 -312 -21.2 489 360 -129 -26.4 515 432 -83 -16.l Wholesale & Retail 7572 8019 447 5.9 3640 4018 378 10.4 3932 4001 69 1.8 Transport & Storage 2085 1886 -209 -10.0 986 897 -89 -9.0 1099 989 -110 -10.0 Co:r.ununication 1046 980 -76 -7.3 397 405 8 2.0 6-19 575 -74 -11.4 Finance 1330 .1586 249 18.7 674 804 130 19.3 656 782 26 19.2 Public Administration c..nd Defence 913 1558 645 70.6 507 761 254 50.1 406 797 391 96.3 Community Service 5267 5644 377 7.2 2653 2913 260 9.8 2614 2931 117 4.5 Entertainment 2561 2130 -431 -16.8 1192 1095 -97 -8.1 1369 1035 -334 -24.3 Other and not stated 947 1779 832 87.8 409 648 239 58.4 5'.!8 1131 593 110.2 Unemployed 618 751 133 21.5 346 400 54 15.6 272 351 79 29.0 Total 23343 25125 1754 7.5 11293 12301 1008 8.9 12050 12824 774 6.4
TOTAL 47838 46812 -1063 -2 • .2 19665 19896 231 1.1 28173 26916 -1257 -4.4
Source: A.B.S. Census Data 17
The Loddon-Campaspe Region has generaily drier and poorer soils than in the south of Victoria and consequently tends to have larger properties and be more dependent on irrigation in the northern areas. Only small areas of the region are used for the growing of crops. (The only shires with more than 20,000 hectares devoted to crops are Charlton, East Leddon, Gordon, Kara Kara, Korong, Marong, and Rochester. The main· crop grown in these regions is grain, with only limited areas being devoted to vegetables.) Most primary industry in the region is concerned with the raising of sheep and beef cattle, although pig meat production is also important, with the region accounting for one-fifth of Victoria's pig numbers. Dairying is important in the northernmost parts of the region near Echuca, there being some 43,000 dairy cattle in Cohuna Shire and 72,000 in Rochester Shire in 1972-73. Echuca is significantly dependent on the dairying industry for continued prosperity.
,.As in other parts of Victoria, the trend towards fewer and larger rural holdings has continued in recent years in the region, with the exception of those areas where the break-up of properties for hobby farming has occurred (mostly in the southern half of the region) . As a consequence there has been an increasing concentration of rural service functions in the region in larger centres such as Bendigo, Maryborough and Echuca. Farmers in the region have been battling against unstable external markets, rising costs, reductions in assistance and lack of sufficient productive scale and capital. Although farmers in the region moved fairly heavily into beef in recent years, the impact of the recent slump in meat prices has been lessened by their diversification into pigs, oats and oilseed as well as the substantial acreage devoted to wheat in the region.
2.4 Manufacturing Industry
As indicated above, an important feature of the structure of manufacturing industry in the Loddon-Campaspe Region is the fact that each of the larger cities in the region has a relatively independent manufacturing base, so that the. factors influencing the level of manufacturing activity in one city are often independent of those operating elsewhere. As a result there is often considerable diversity in the trends in manufacturing employment in the various cities. · Thus, between 1966 and 1971, although manufacturing employment declined in the region as a whole, as indicated by Table 5 the decline was much more marked in Bendigo than elsewhere in the region. Similarly the data in Table 6 indicates clearly the different trends in manufacturing employment in the major centres in the region in the early 1970's. Whereas manufacturing employment in Maryborough and Castlemaine City fluctuated markedly between 1969-70 and 1972-73, there being a substantial increase in manufacturing employment in both those cities in i972-73 in particular, manufacturing employment in Bendigo would appear to have increased gradually during that period (apart from a downturn in 1971-72).
Analysis of trends in manufacturing industry activity within the region in recent years is hampered by the fact that the most recent official published data on the subject relates to the year 1973-74 and by the fact that the amount of detailed data relating to manufacturing activity in the various parts of the region is limited as a result of the confidentiality requirements of the Census and Statistics Act. A considerable amount of such data has become available since 1972 as a by-product of the administration within the region of the decentralization incentives scheme of the Victorian Government (principally through the operation of the State Development Act 1970, and the Decentralized Industry Incentives (Payroll Tax Rebate) Act 1972). The following paragraphs draw heavily on data from this source (supplied by the Bendigo office of the Division. of Industrial Development), and on material gathered as a result of interviews with persons in the region, conducted primarily during the course of the economic assessment stu9y referred to in the Introduction. \ 18
Assessment of this data suggests that there have been a number of conflicting influences on manufacturing industry activity in the Loddon-Campaspe region since 1972. Thus, on the one hand, manufacturing activity throughout the Loddon-Campaspe region has been adversely affected by trends in economic activity in Australia since 1973, and by a series of policy decisions relating to manufacturing industry taken by the Australian Government during 1973 and 1974. The most important of the factors affecting the level of manufacturing activity in the Loddon-Campaspe region appear to have been
Significant wage increases for females, particularly those working in the textiles and clothing industries.
Successive currency revaluations.
The general 25% tariff reduction announced in July 1973 and the lifting of import quotas on certain clothing items in February 1974.
The impact of these decisions varied considerably between industry groups and between the various urban centres in the region._ Thus it would appear that the large increase in female wage rates, which occurred during 1973 and 1974, was the most significant factor in reducing the competitiveness of the textiles and clothing industries in the region. The reintroduction of import quotas on various clothing items in the latter half of 1975, pending a review by the Industries Assistance Conunission, reduced the impact of previous decisions on firms in that industry. Thus whilst Castlemaine Woollen Mills was forced to reduce its staff by 100 following the tariff cuts and the imposition of import quotas, it has since increased its employment to a level close to that prevailing prior to that decision. On the other hand Fibremakers in Bendigo closed its doors completely (though the extent to which this may be directly attributable to the tariff cuts is unclear).
Employment in other industries has also been adversely affected by the downturn in economic activity. Thus both Patience and Nicholson in Maryborough and the S.K.F. ball bearing factory in Echuca reduced their employment substantially during the latter half of 1974 and 1975, as a result of falling demand for their products. In the food processing industry, employment in the Bendigo sub-region has fluctuated considerably, primarily as a result of the difficulties experienced by meat processors in the area in finding markets for their output. In Castlemaine, by way of contrast, the bacon factory has doubled in size in the past six years.
The decline in manufacturing activity in the region suggested by the foregoing analysis appears, however, to have been more than offset by the location in the region, and in the Bendigo area in Rart~cular, of a considerable, number of firms receiving assistance under the Victorian Government's decentralization incentives progranune. Thus, Table 7 lists more than 30 firms who have established operations in the Bendigo sub-region since 1972. Examination of the characteristics of these firms reveals the following:
(i) Whilst the large majority of the firms are small, in the sense that they employ fewer than six persons, several large enterprises, employing between 80 and 100 persons have set up operations in the Bendigo sub-region in recent years (e.g. Sinclair Foundry, Empire Rubber and Country Campers).
(ii) A number of the firms listed in Table 7 (including the three large firms mentioned above) are firms which have relocated their operations from Melbourne.
(iii) Whilst some of the firms have closed their operations since setting up operations in the Bendigo sub-region (as indicated by an asterisk in Table 7), only one of these (Fibremakers) employed more than 10 persons. -· 19
TABLE 6
Manufacturing Establishments and Employment in Major Cities in the Loddon-Campaspe Region 1968-69 to 1972-73
1968-69 1969-70 197.1-72 1972-73 1973-74 No. --No. -- No. No. --No. --Est. Emp. Est. Emp. Est. Emp. Est. Emp. Est. Emp.
Bendigo Urban Area* 98 3698 93 3718 97 3581 93 3810 97 3981 Maryborough. City 23 ll85 23 1247 21 ll68 21 1325 23 1360 Castlemaine City 25 llOl 25 ll55 17 1082 20 1280 20 1202 Echuca City 25 752 23 794 23 778 20 712 19 695
* As defined by A.B.S. Does not correspond exactly with the Bendigo Sub-region as defined for purposes of the present study.
~ Source: A.B.S. Victorian Office, Manufacturing Establishments, Small Area l Statistics. (Annual Publication) I \
In assessing the implications of the data in Table 7 for the level of manufacturing activity in the Bendigo sub-region, it needs to be borne in mind that not all of the enterprises listed in Table 7 have generated additional manufacturing employment in the area. Thus in a few instances, the firms listed in Table 7 have merely taken over existing enterprises in the Bendigo sub-region (e.g. Cohns Pty. Ltd. were taken over by Coca Cola Operations Pty. Ltd.; the operations of D. Smyth and Sons were split into three - Bendigo Mechanical Services, Sandhurst Airconditioning and Plumbing Pty. Ltd., and Masfield Manufacturing). On the other hand, the movement of several of the firms listed in Table 7 into the Bendigo Sub-region has meant that the possible underutilisation of capital equipment and factory space left by firms vacating premises in the area has been averted (for almost immediately iI example the premises vacated by Fibremakers were occupied by Country Campers).
2.5 Unemployment
The cumulative impact of the factors outlined above on the level of employment in the Loddon-Campaspe region is reflected in the data relating to the level of registered unemployment and job vacancies in the Bendigo employment district since 1972 shown in Figure 3. Figure 3 shows clearly that apart from seasonal fluctuations, the level of unemployment in the I region remained fairly constant until the latter half of 1974, when it ' accelerated sharply. The level of unemployment remained high throughout 1975. As indicated by Table 8, the rate of unemployment in the Bendigo. area throughout 1975 was above that in several other parts of non-metropolitan Victoria, although Table 9 suggests that the ratio of registered unemployed 20
TABLE 7
MANUFACTURING OPERATIONS ESTABLISHED AND CLOSED IN THE BENDIGO SUB-REGION 1972-1976
Balgownie Vineyard Bendigo Engineering Services Bendigo Mechanical Services Blind Cow Pottery Central Victorian Color Laboratory . Ceramic Oxide Fabricators Pty.Ltd. (relocated from Melbourne) Coca Cola Operations Pty.Ltd. (took over Cohns Pty.Ltd.) Concrete & Masonry (Bendigo) Pty.Ltd. Country Campers (relocated from Melbourne) Dowell Aust. Pty.Ltd. E.T.Y. Timber & Joinery * E.V.I. Pty.Ltd . .Elmore Decentralized Industry (relocated from Melbourne) Empire ·Rubber (Aust) Pty.Ltd. (relocated from Melbourne) * Fernando Bosco Fraser, A.W. Pty.Ltd. Fyfe Constructions Golden City Batteries Gozzo, E. & B.A. Hume & Iser Trusses J.W. Recording Studio Jansco Investments Jeco Welding Pty.Ltd. (relocated fiom Melbourne) Kermac Modular Buildings Pty.Lrd. (relocated from Melbourne) Masf ield Manufacturing * Ni~tex Industries Northern Offset Printing Palm View Engineering Perfectfit Hosiery Pty.Ltd. Powermake Constructions Rapid and Reliable Printing Sandhurst Airconditioning and Plumbing Pty.Ltd. Sinclair Foundry Pty.Ltd. (relocated from Melbourne) Tuck's Window and Building Supplies Pty.Ltd. Watts, G.R. & L.J. Wesseley, N. & 0. Manufacturing Co. (relocated from Melbourne)
* Ceased operations
The following manufacturing operations established prior to 1972, also closed:- Andersons Quartz Crushing Pty.Ltd. Casing Processors Pty.~td Cohns Pty. Ltd. Fibremakers 'I Long, R.G. & Co.Pty.Ltd. Northern Victorian Electroplating Pty.Ltd. Smyth, D. & Sons Welmar.
Source: Division of Industrial Development, Bendigo. · persons 3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
registered unemployed
1000 I j:
( .
500 I -----.. ' ------...... ---- ,,,,,,,.-- .. Job vacancies ___,,..'. ----...... ,,,,--, / _ ''\ !, .,.,,...... -,,.../ ---~--- --...______...... / ' / \ -...... _/ ,_,, \, ___ ------...... ______,,.....,,., ..------...... ------...... __ _- .... ______--- ...... _------
0 ...-----.------....----~..---!!!!!!!!! ...... !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!'!~'!!!!!_!!!!!!._~------~-...-.-~ .. ---- .....-----..---- .....P""----- .... ----..... ------.... ----.... ----...... ----.... ----...... march june sept. dee. ma1ch june sept. dee. march 1une sept. dee. march june sept. de<:. march 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976
regislered unemploved and JOb vaco ncies ;BC?ndigo employmenl d1slricl ( tig 3. I ;i l 21.
TABLE 8
ESTIMATED RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN SELECTED URBAN CENTRES IN NON-METROPOLITAN VICTORIA. 1975-1976
Employment March June Sept. Dec. March Districts 1975 1975 1975 1975 1976 % % % % %
Ararat 3.9 3.1 4.2 6.3 5.2
Ballarat 5.4 5.4 5.5 8.9 7.6
Bendigo 5.3 5.6 6.6 8.2 5.7
Echuca n.a. n.a. 4.4 6.3 5.6
Morwell 4.1 4.0 5.0 7.4 7.0
Sale 5.0 5.2 5.9 6.3 5.7
Shepparton 4.0 7.5 7.9 10.6 5.8
Wangaratta 4.7 5.4 6.3 7.4 5.7
Warragul 3.5 3.3 3.6 4.8 4.9
Total Non- Metropolitan 4.8 5.3 5.6 7.4 5.9
Source: Calculated from Data supplied by Department of Labour and Immigration.
Note a: The data shows the percentage of the workforce in each employment district (as measured by the 1971 Census) registered as unemployed with the C.E.S. at the end of the months shown. Whilst the use of 1971 workforce data as the basis for calculation probably overstates the rate of unemployment in each district, the data probably give a reasonable indication of the relative rates of unemployment in the various districts. ·I
22
[, I J
TABLE 9
RATIO OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYED TO UNFILLED VACANCIES IN SELECTED URBAN CENTRES IN NON-METROPOLITAN VICTORIA 1975 - 1976
Employment March June Sept. Dec. March District 1975 1975 1975 1975 1976
Ararat 5.4 6.0 14.8 12.8 9.9
Ballarat 8.7 11.3 14.5 15.9 16.6
Bendigo 6.8 8.0 12.1 14.6 9.1
Echuca n·.a. n.a. 19.4 20.l 16.9
Morwell 21. 5 31.6 19.1 49.3 35.7
Sale 10.4 10.2 13.3 13. 3 29·.3
Sheppartop 5.6 21.0 21.5 24.6 26.0
Wangaratt"a 5.1 6.0 12.7 14.0 12.6
. Warragul 7.0 4-.8 8.3 8.8 12.8
Total.Non- Metropolitan 8.8 10.4 14.5 13.9 18.2
Source: Calculated from Data supplied by Department of Labour and Immigration.
Note: See footnote to Table 8.
·I. I 23
to unfilled vacancies was not as high in the Bendigo area as it was in some other parts of Victoria (e.g. the Morwell, Shepparton and Ballarat employment districts}. Although there has been some fall in the level of unemployment in the region in the·early months of 1976 (particularly amongst females) the rate of unemployment in the region remains unacceptably high. To some extent, of course, this trend of unemployment in the region merely mirrors the similar increase in unemployment which has taken place throughout Australia generally during the last two years. On the other hand, the higher rate of unemployment in the Bendigo area compared with other parts of Victoria emphasises the extent to which the relatively narrow employment base of the region (particularly with respect to manufacturing employment) renders it particularly susceptible to changes in the competitive situation of particular industries.
2.6 Building and Construction
The level of activity in the Building and Construction Industry in the Loddon-Campaspe.region in recent years also seems to have varied significantly from place to place. Thus as indicated by Table 10, the level of dwelling construction in the Bendigo sub-region accelerated sharply in 1973, following a long period of time in which the number of dwellings completed annually had remained fairly constant at approximately 400 dwellings per year. Much of the increase can be attributed to the r.apid increase in the number of flats constructed in Bendigo in the past few years, though in 1975-76 there was an increase of 30% in the number of houses completed compared with 1973-74 and 1974-75 respectively.
TABLE 10
Number of New Dwellings Completed Bendigo Sub-region, 1966-67 To 1975-76
Year No. Dwellings Year No. Dwellings Houses Flats Total Houses Flats Total
1966,-67 318 34 352 1971-72 299 63 362 ·1967-68 390 56 446 1972-73 315 87 402 1968-69 355 67 422 1973-74 454 176 630 1969-70 353 52 405 1974-75 443 188 631 1970-71 333 20 353 1975-76 580 127 707
Source: A.B.S. Victorian Office, Building Operations (Quarterly).
This high level of dwelling construction activity in Bendigo has been supplemented by a similarly high level of other building activity. As indicated by Table 11, the level of this type of activity has fluctuated considerably in the last few years, especially in the private sector, although the level of building activity for Government purposes such as education and health has shown a dramatic and sustained increase.
In other centres in the region, (Maryborough, Castlemaine and Echuca for example) the level of building activity appears to have remained fairly steady during the past five years. As indicated by Table 12, there have been peaks in the level of dwelling construction activity, particularly in Maryborough and Castlemaine. This appears to have been mainly associated with the construction of individual blocks of flats in those c~ties. A trebling in the number of flats completed was also largely responsible for the dramatic jump in the number of dwellings completed in Echuca in 1975-76. 24
TABLE 11 VALUE OF BUILDINGS (OTHER THAN DWELLINGS) APPROVED, BENDIGO SUB-REGION 1971-72 TO 1974-75 ($I 000)
Txpe of Building Hotels Offices & Edn.Health Factories Other & Shops Other Bus. & Entertain Year Premises ment
1971.-72 739 269 75 1061 192 1972-73 1357 1455 2410 2568 125 1973-74 476 568 339 3758 258 1974-75 869 893 1239 4568 95
Source: A.B.S. Victorian Office, Building Approvals by Local Government Areas
TABLE 12
NUMBER OF NEW DWELLINGS COMPLETED IN MARYBOROUGH CASTLEMAINE AND ECHUCA, 1970-71 TO 1975-76
Year Maryborough Castlemaine Echuca No. No. No. '
1970-71 21 43 61 ., 1971-72 30 20 56 1972-73 21 20 68 1973-74 50 29 52 1974-75 26 45 70 1975-76 56 63 129
Source: A.B.S., Victorian Office, Building Operations 25
2~7 The Tertiary Sector
In conunon with the rest of Australia, the most significant source of employment growth in the Loddon-Carnpaspe Region in recent years has been in the tertiary sector - wholesale and retail trade, finance and government based administration and service employment. Within the Loddon-Carnpaspe region, the growth of employment in these sectors has been most significant in the Bendigo sub-region. Several factors have contributed to this situation as discussed below.
(i) Wholesale and Retail Trade
Between 1966 and 1971 employment in wholesale and retail activity showed a rate of growth of 5.9% for the region, and 10.4% for Bendigo sub-region. The data relating to the construction of hotels and shops in the Bendigo sub-region analysed .in the preceding section suggests that this growth has continued since 1971. The increasing ease of conununication between regional centres, together with the greater mobility of the population, is resulting in a continuing gravitation of shoppers towards large centres able to offer a wide range of goods and services. This trend has further aggravated the problems of many of the small centres which are struggling to maintain.their service role within an area experiencing a declining rural population. This decline tends to be cumulative, with a wide range of services being terminated. Lack of services further encourages the local population to travel elsewhere for a combination of shopping, medical services, conununity and welfare facilities, etc; hence the snowballing effect of the decline in the local centre.
(ii) Government Based Conununity Services
Much of the employment growth in the region in fields such as education, health and Government administration has arisen from the concentration in Bendigo of major Government provided services such as tertiary education and health, and the progressive development and improvement of those services in Bendigo. Examples of these services include the District School of Nursing, the Bendigo Horne and Hospital for the Aged, the Bendigo Psychiatric Centre, and the Bendigo College of Advanced Education. The Department of Agriculture has. also recently developed a large new complex in Bendigo.
(iii) Tourism
Although employment in the industries servicing tourism (Transport and Storage, Entertainment) appears to have declined in .the region as a whole between 1966 and 1971, in recent years, activities associated with tourism appear to have grown considerably in many parts of the region. A wide range of tourist attractions has been developed in the region since 1971 including, for example, the Bendigo Pottery, Sandhurst Town near Bendigo, the Castlernaine Market and Wattle Gully Gold Mine in Castlernaine, and the port restoration project at Echuca. The promotion of tourism to the region has been greatly facilitated by the establishment of the North Central Regional Tourist Authority in 1975.
Tourist activity in the region is concentrated in Bendigo where a wide range of acconunodation and tourist facilities have been developed. Activity appears also to have increased in Maryborough
' f 26
and Castlemaine, and Echuca has heen particularly successful in promoting tourism. St. Arnaud council has been working towards increasing tourism and has received government funds for development. A survey undertaken in 1973/74 by the Australian Travel Research Conference found that 95% of trips taken to the North Central area originated in Victoria and 60% of these in Melbourne. The greatest proportion of visitors to the region came either as part of a holiday which included some other destination or on a private visit. In the past five years, the state government has spent some $520,000 on local works to assist tourism in the region. Over half of the expenditure was by· way of road allocations for j improvements in roads leading to facilities, mainly in the south i eastern shires, and about a third on development allocations for tourism work, mainly spent in the areas north and south of Bendigo.
(iv) Electricity, Transport and Storage
It will be noted from Table 3 that regional employment in electricity and transport would appear to have either stabilized or declined in recent years. In electricity and rail transport, these trends can be attributed to the progressive rationalisation of those operations throughout the State. Employment in road transport in the region appears to have been adver~ely affected by both the decline in work associated with the fall off in business activity and by the increased competition experienced by local operators within the region from interstate road transport operators taking advantage of the operation of Section 92 of the Constitution which effectively exonerates such operators from the requirements of State road transport regulations.
' j
lI 27
CHAPTER 3. SOCIAL SERVICES AND fAC!L!TIES
The provision of an adequate level of health, education and welfa.re services and facilities is a fundamental requirement of any effective planni.ng strategy for the future of the Loddon-Carnpaspe Region. In recognition of this, the study programme was particularly concerned to assess the adequacy of the existing level of provision of various soci~l facilities in the Loddon-Carnpaspe Region, and to identify the specific deficiencies and needs requiring attention. As indicated in the Introduction, efforts were made to obtain data relating to the availability of a range of social services and facilities in the region from a variety of sources. Considerable difficulty was experienced, however, in obtaining the required data on a consistent regional basis. The availability of such data is likely to be greatly increased in the not too distant future, however, on completion of the study of socially disadvantaged in the region, currently being conducted by the Golden Square/Kangaroo Flat Community Health Centre and the Bendigo Welfare Council. This study is being funded by the Loddon-Carnpaspe Regional Council for Social Development, utilising grants made available by the Commonwealth Government under the Australian Assistance Plan.
In addition to the lack of data relating to social facilities and services available in the region, the criteria on which to evaluate the adequacy of particular services are often imprecise and difficult to define, thus increasing the difficulty of making a proper assessment of the adequacy or otherwise of particular services. Moreover, the variation in the nature of service requirements and the appropriate methods of providing services in the different parts of the region means that it is often difficult, and indeed unwise, to make generalised judgements regarding the adequacy of services based on criteria developed in other areas and in other circumstances •. Nonetheless the following sections are designed to provide a broad overview of existing arrangements for the provision of a number of the more important social services and facilities in the region and to indicate areas in which the analysis to date suggests that early action should be taken to expand and/or upgrade the level and nature of service or facility provided in various · parts of the region.
3.1 The Organisation of Services
Provision of social services and facilities in a large geographic area such as the Loddon-Carnpaspe region which is mostly settled at low density, having only a few widely separated urban centres, is a task which will inevitably stretch resources and raise questions regarding appropriate administrative procedures (e.g. with respect to the most effective means of co-ordinating service provision). Rural population decline, accompanied as it has been by further centralisation of services. (especially specialist services) in a small number of major urban centres, adds further to the difficulty of the task. Moreover the cost of providing such services (whether it be education, health or welfare) has accelerated markedly in recent years, as it has been increasingly recognized and accepted that the proper provision of such services requires an increasing input of more specialised, more qualified, and thus more expensive staff.
The organisation and delivery of social services in the Loddon-Carnpaspe region as elsewhere in Victoria is the responsibility of a multiplicity of agencies (both government and non-government). In many cases, several agencies (particularly those working in the fields of education and health) provide similar or closely related services, and considerable potential exists for duplication and overlap in the services provided by such agencies. These difficulties are enhanced by the fact that many of the Government age.ncies involved in the region (e.g. the State Departments of Health, Education and Social Welfare) do not yet share common regional boundaries. 28
On the other hand, the staff of individual Departments engaged in the region exercise considerable individual initiative in seeking to co-ordingate their activities both with other Departments and with the various private welfare organisations engaged in the region. The co-ordination and integration of service delivery amongst the various organisations involved in the provision of social services and facilities in the region has bee·n greatly facilitated in recent years through the work of the Loddon-Campaspe Regional Council for Social Development, which has, for example, established local welfare committees in localities throughout the region. The purpose of these committees is to stimulate co-ordinated planning and action to meet local welfare needs.
3.2 Health Care
HP.nlt.h services in the Loddon-Campaspe region are provided by a loosely defined network of doctors, dentists, specialists, and public and private hospitals within the region, and in some instances by doctors and hospitals from outside the region. Persons living on the periphery of the region in particular, frequently obtain health care from doctors or hospitals in adjoining regions. In other instances patients may be required to receive treatment at better or specialised facilities outside the region.
(i) Hospitals and Community Health Centres
The Loddon-Campaspe region has fourteen general hospitals with 905 public, private and intermediate beds, most of which are in six hospitals located in Bendigo, Maryborough, Echuca, St. Arnaud, Castlemaine, and Kyneton. There are 12 private hospitals (including four bush nursing hospitals) with a total of 210 beds, 172 of which are in five hospitals in the Bendigo sub-region. The location of hospitals in the region is shown in Figure 4. On a regional basis, the rate of provision of hospital beds in the Loddon-Campaspe region, (excluding accommodation specifically reserved for aged persons, the region possesses approximately nine beds per 1,000 population) compares more than favourably with that for Victoria as a whole (five beds per 1,000 population). It would appear that to the year 1980 at least, the current and projected be~ capacity of the regions hospitals appear to be more than adequate. (Hospital facilities for aged persons are discussed separately below.) Three of the twenty-six community health centres which currently exist in Victoria are located in the Loddon-Campaspe region.
(ii) Other Health Services
In addition to the general medical care provided by the network of hospitals and health centres described above, the region also possesses a number of more specialised health facilities. These are described below.
(a) Psychiatric Services
The Bendigo Psychiatric Centre has 142 beds, and provides services to nearly all of the Loddon-Campaspe region, the entire Northern Mallee region, and part of the Wimmera and Goulburn regions. Services at the centre include long term wards for 94 patients, short term care for 48 patients, and a day hospital. In addition to the psychiatric, medical and social work services provided for in-patients and out-patients, there is a community nursing and visiting service which operates from the centre. The Sandhurst
_J , "I \ __ _,I
Source: -Hospitals and Charities Commission
Health Centres * Hospitals (Public) l • Hospitals(Privatel Health Faci Ii ties •.... Bush Nursing Hospitals ("- Bush Nursing Centres • Nursing Home Beds • Geriatric Hospital Bedl •.... Flats Accommodation '1 ¥- Hostels '> Geriatric Units • Highway I Railway Stream I Regional Boundary J HOSPITAL FACILITIES AND r-; ACCOMMODATION FOR THE AGED Loddon - Campaspe Region ~ Studies of the Central Highlands & Loddon - Campaspe Regions Fig. 4 29
Boys Centre in Bendigo engages in the training of mentally retarded young men in engineering, carpentry,. leather work, gardening, laundry work and painting, aiming to allow them to be useful to employers and/or parents. The total capacity is 84, and an expansion is planned over the next 4 - 5 years to extend the facility to cater for 250 people, including females as well as males. The only other psychiatric facility in the region is an out-patients clinic in Maryborough, which operates only one session per fortnight. Due to the system of regional boundaries used by the Health Department, this is controlled from the Lakeside Hospital in Ballarat.
(b) Other Specialised Services
Apart from the various specialised services provided for aged persons in the region, which are discussed below, a range of services and facilities is provided within the region for various people having specific disabilities. Examples of such services including the network of spastic centres throughout the region which provide teaching and training facilities (including physiotherapy, speech and occupational therapy) for persons suffering from cerebral palsy and other _multiply handicapped persons, t~e Peter Harcourt Day Centre for Retarded Children, the Bendigo Sheltered Workshop and McDonald House Oral School for Deaf Children. Most of the specialised facilities are located in Bendigo, but provide services to the whole of the surrounding region.
(c) Ambulance Services
Section 3.6 below discusses in some detail the matter of accessibility to social services and facilities in different parts of the Loddon-Campaspe region. As suggested in that discussion, the_critical factor in relation to accessibility to facilities such as hospitals, particularly in an emergency situation, is the time taken to reach those facilities. In relation to health facilities in the Loddon-Campaspe region accessibility is enhanced by the network of ambulance services in the region conducted by the Victorian Civil Ambulance. Ambulance bases are located at Bendigo, Maryborough, Castlemaine, Cohuna, Echuca, Rochester, Charlton, St. Arnaud, Kyneton, Woodend, Gisborne, and Kilmore.
(iii) The Adequacy of Health Care
The existing health care network in the region has several deficiencies particularly with respect to accessibility. As is usually the case in non-metropolitan areas, access to medical services is fairly good for persons living in or near a principal city. However, many of the smaller centres and rural areas have poor accessibility to doctors or hospitals. Small hospitals servicing the region's rural areas are experiencing shortages of nursing and para-medical staff and this problem is expected to increase in the future. Accessibility to dentists is also difficult in many areas of the region as suggested by the pattern of location of dentists in the region illustrated by Figure 5.
I r. I 30
In recent years there have been two important developments in the pattern of health care services in the region. On the one hand, there is a continuing trend towards concentration of medical facilities in Bendigo, which further stre_ngthens the dependence of residents of the region on t.hat city for health services. In some people's eyes this has often been seen as a decline in regional residents' accessibility to health care. On the other hand the concentration of facilities in Bendigo has meant that it has been possible to provide a larger range of specialised health services in that city and thus to increase the range of services which residents of the region may now obtain in the region rather than having to travel to Melbourne for them.
3.3 Education
Education in the Loddon-Campaspe region is provided by a network of kindergartens, primary and secondary schools and tertiary facilities. Bendigo acts as a regional centre for specialist educational services such ___as_those_provided_for_handicapped children;_ .it_is_also_one .. of.-the_eleven ___ regional nfficP.s of the Education Department. The majority of schools in the region are conducted by the government. Primary and secondary schools are distributed throughout the region, although as illustrated by Figures 6 and 7, generally they are located in the urban areas. Accessibility to such schools is facilitated by the network of school bus services which is provided throughout the region. The development of these bus services has been related to the closure of many small schools in the region, facilitating the provision of a wider range of facilities in the larger urban areas, to which children throughout the region may have access, although some students in rural areas still have to travel considerable distances. At the same time, some rural primary schools (as well as a nlirnber of urban schools) have old buildings, small classrooms and playgrounds which are often inadequate to cope with the demands .of present day education. These physical limitations are the result of the financial and administrative constraints operating with respect to. the provision of education in Victoria as a whole. Secondary education is constrained by similar problems; however, generally the secondary schools were constructed after World War II, and are more readily able to cope with demands made on them.
In recent years, the availability of tertiary education facilities in the region has been significantly increased through the expansion of the State College of Victoria, Bendigo, and the Bendigo Institute of Technology. The merger of these institutions into the Bendigo College of Advanced Education and the proposed development of additional courses at that institution is likely to further enhance the range and quality of tertiary education facilities available in the region.
The Education Department has a series of long range plans which will have ... - -a· significant impact on the nature of _educational--services -avai"lable ·in· ·the region. They include reduction in cl.ass sizes and increasing provision of specialist teachers and teacher aides, counselling and career advice. In keeping with community trends, the Department is considering three concepts to encourage more community participation in educational programmes: the school park, community use of schools, and re-organization of school councils. The problems associated with education in the region are, of course, similar to those of other non-metropolitan regions in the State; the overcoming and solution of these will not be undertaken simply on a regional basis but will reflect priorities determined largely in Melbourne to apply to the whole State. The Education Department has attempted in recent years to decentralise the administration of its programmes throughout Victoria on a regional basis, and this should increase the ability of that Department to respond to the specific needs of the Loddon-Campaspe region. ,...,..- rr I ; ; , I .. I ; \ / __ _,I !
WEDDERBURN • 0
C"'-
Source : Register of Medical Practitioners Victoria 1g75 ') Reg ister of Dentists Victoria 1975 Medical Practitioner ROMSEY ) • Dentist 0 ' • Highway -+-+--+ Railway · =IDDELL' S CREEK I Stream Regional Boundary J ·-·DISTRIBUTION OF MEDICAL r-"' PRACTITIONERS AND DENTISTS Loddon - Campaspe Region Studies of the Central Highlands & Loddon - Campaspe Regions Fig.5 7 . ("- ~, I Source: -Victorian D epartment of Educat ion '-" S ee F1gure. • Non-Government • Secondary J ·· '1 Technical Government • • Primary • • '> • Highway • Railway Stream ·-• Regional Boundary
PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOLS Loddon - Campaspe Region ffl Studies of the Central Highlands & Loddon - Campaspe Regions Fig. 6 SHIRE OF HUNTLY
---= L
• Primary ] • Secondary Government • Technical Primary Non Gov • SecondaryJ - ernment • Local Government Boundaries
PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOLS Bendigo Urban Area ~000~ Studies of the Central Highlands & Loddon - Campaspe Regions Fig. 7 31
3.4 Welfare Services
Within the Loddon-Carnpaspe Region, a large number and wide variety of welfare agencies and authorities offer a whole host of services and facilities ranging from accommodation to rehabilitation, advice and counselling. Many of the agencies are voluntary or religious bodies. As wel~many service clubs and similar organisations work within the region. In the region, as elsewhere, the number of persons dependent to some extent on welfare has increased considerably in recent years.
The majority of Government social welfare services provided in the region are the responsibility of either the Victorian Social Welfare Department or the Commonwealth Department of Social Security.. The former department has the major responsibility, being responsible for the overall co-ordination of welfare services as well as the planning and delivery of a wide range of particular services.
The Social Welfare Department works in the region through its Bendigo Office. The Department co-operates with various other welfare agencies in the region, both Government and non-government. Co-ordination of services and facilities is often difficult because of the similar and overlapping functions of the Departments of Health, Education and Social Welfare. Many of the difficulties can be attributed to the staffing problems experienced by the various Departments in the region, which in turn i~ related directly to the national shortage of trained welfare workers. It should be noted that the Regional Offices of the various authorities have, by their own initiative and efforts, established a considerable degree of co-ordination of services and facilities in the region. This has been facilitated in the past few years by the establishment of the Loddon-Carnpaspe Regional Council for Social Development, utilising financial and staff assistance from the Commonwealth Government under the Australian Assistance Plan. The future of the Australian Assistance Plan is currently in doubt; if the plan is not continued, it is important that alternative arrangements be made to enable the Regional Council to build on the work already done in the region.
3.5 Care of the Aged
As indicated by Table 13, the proportion of the population aged 65 years and over at the time of the 1971 census was higher in the Loddon-Carnpasp~ region than in any other region in Victoria. Moreover as indicated in Figures 8 and 9, between 1966 and 1971 migration of aged people to Castlemaine and Ec~uca made a significant contribution to the maintenance and growth of population in those centres respectively. Bendigo is already a popular retirement centre and it is therefore important that the provision of .facilities to cater for the.needs of aged persons continue to receive special attention in the region.
The largest institution providing general care for the aged in the Loddon Carnpaspe region is the Bendigo Home and-Hospital for the Aged which in 1975 provided 542 nursing home beds for elderly persons. In addition, flat and hostel facilities at this institution cater for a~ additional 130 aged persons. The Alexander Home for the Aged in Castlem~ine contained 258 nursing home beds and could accommodate a further 86 aged persons in hostel type facilities. Including private hospitals, in 1975 there were some 950 beds within a hospital environment in the region which were specifically reserved for elderly people. Some of these facilities (e.g. the Mirradong Home for the Aged Blind) cater for aged persons who have specific disabilities. 32
TABLE 13
Population Distribution by Age-Group Regions of Victoria, 1971
Region 0-4 5-19 20-64 65+ % % % %
Melbourne 9.7 26.8 55.2 8.3 Barwon 9.8 30.1 51. 7 8.4 South West 10.0 31. 2 50.0 8.8 Central Highlands 9.5 30.0 49. 7 10.8 Winunera 9.8 30.2 49.6 10.4 Northern Mallee 10.4 31.4 49.5 8.7 Loddon-Carnpaspe 9.6 29.1 49.6 11. 7 Goulburn 11.0 30.9 50.8 7.3 North East 10.5 29.6 51.4 8.5 East Gippsland 10.7 30.6 50.8 7.9 Central Gippsland 10.9 31.9 51.0 6.3
NON METROPOLITAN 10.2 30.5 50.4 8.9
VICTORIA 9.8 27.8 54.0 8.4
Source: A.B.S., Australian Municipal Information System
It is necessary to draw attention to an apparent trend within the region towards a situation where pressure is being placed on general hospital facilities in a number of centres in the region (e.g. in St. Arnaud) because of the fact that a large proportion of such beds are being occupied by elderly people, whose needs might be met more appropriately if different arrangements were made for their care.· The Report of the Committee of Inquiry into Poverty (the Henderson Report), for example, has suggested that greater emphasis should be placed on informal community based support programmes which would facilitate the care of the aged in their own homes. At the present time, it would appear that the generally inadequate level of government spending and assistance in the area of domiciliary support serviees and paramedh:al training overburdens hostels and nursing bed accommodation with elderly patients who could be maintained in their own home with adequate support services.
It is probable that there will continue to be a considerable increase in the number of aged persons residing in the region in the future. Whilst Bendigo has a comparatively good range of facilities and services for the aged, there will be a need, in Bendigo as well as in other centres, to provide more facilities and accommodation to cater for the needs of the aged. Special attention will need to be paid to the provision of both active and passive recreation facilities for the aged. More services and facilities will also be required as problems related to the diminishment of social contacts, personal care maintenance, limited accessibility to medical care and income decline, are recognised and understood. It is clear that the matter of developing appropriate and effective arrangements for the care of the aged is one which requires priority action in any future set of programmes and policies designed to cater for the needs of the Loddon-Carnpaspe -- -~ ------·- . ~ I !··
total net migration · -3-23% (249)
I 65+ I
I 60-64 !
55-59
50-54 i I ' 45-49 ~ .. ~ :
I 40-44
35-39 f
I I 30-34 ,,: ., 25-29 I. 20-24 .. "
- : 15·-19 .•,' " I l 10-14-
5-9
0-4 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I T l 1: -. I I -2·6 -2·4 '-2·2 -2·0 -1·8 -1·6 ...:1.4 -1·2 -1·0 -0·8 -0·6 -0·4 -0·2 0·4 . 0·6 0·8 1·0 1·2 1·4 1·6 1·8 2·0 2·2 2·4 2·6 I I percentage of population ne~ infernal migration by age-goup Cas~lemaine 1966-1971 fig_ 8
~~~~~~~~------~------~~~I. -,-_ -:..-.::.-- - ·~ - ~-
total net migration! · 24·38% (1830)
I I 65+ I I ' I • ' 60-64 I . ! I ' i 55-59
50-54 I .. - 45-49 ' .I ·r---' 40-44 'i .. : 35-39 ;
30-34
·1 25-29 I· ·j { ·20-24 I. I I 15-19 8·51
10-14 3·74 I I ii 5-9 : 4·35 .. I j
0-4 '
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I -1·6 -1·4 -1·2 -1·0 -0·8 -0·6 -0·4 -0·2 0·2 0·4 0·6 0·8 1·0 1·2 1·4 1·6 1·8 I 2·0 2·2 2·4 2·6
percentage of population net internal migr9tion by age group I ECH UCA 1966-1971 ! fig 9 1-
1 '
I f j 33 region. The findings of the Working Party on Domiciliary Care for the Aged recently established by the Victorian Government and which is expected to report by the end of 1976 will be of particular significance in the development of such arrangements. In the light of the foregoing analysis, it is suggested that the matter of the relationship between the provision of care and services for the aged and the provision of general health services in the region is one which warrants particular investigation at an early date.
3.6 Accessibility to Social Services and Facilities
Considerable concern has been expressed within the region regarding the difficulties which regional residents experience in obtaining access to social serv'ices and facilities, particularly those provided by government. Some people have seen the decline in the facilities available in many small rural servicing towns in the region as conclusive evidence that this difficulty is increasing,particularly when compared with the situation in Melbourne.
It is necessary to bear in mind, on the other hand, that whi1st accessibility to such services is particularly difficult in some parts of the region, in many instances the time taken by residents even of the remote rurai areas of the Loddon-Campaspe region to obtain the services of a hospital or other emergency service may in fact be comparable with that taken by metropolitan residents, even though the resident in the Loddon-Campaspe region may have to travel several times the distance of his metropolitan counterpart. In an emergency situation in particular, the most important factor would often appear to be the time taken to get to a hospital or a dentist rather than the distance travelled. In many cases a rural resident may be able to do this more quickly than a person in Melbourne, because he does not have to travel over congested roads and cope with traffic lights for example.
As noted above, in recent years, an increasing range of social facilities (particularly Specialist facilities) have been provided in the Loddon-Campaspe region, thus eliminating the need for regional residents to travel to Melbourne each time they require such services. Whilst these are mainly available in Bendigo, they are often only a relatively short (in terms of time) distance away. The understanding of accessibility to services in these terms, however, highlights the relationship which exists between increasing accessibility to a range of services and the maintenance and upgrading of the intra-regional transportation network, a matter to which further attention will be given below. 34
CHAPTER 4. HOUSING, PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE ENVIRONMENT
As well as the economic, demographic and social factors discussed in Chapters 2 and 3 above, the availability of physical infrastructure (housing, transport and communication, basic services) will also exert an important influence on the nature of future development in the Loddon-Campaspe Region. The purpose of Chapter 4 therefore is to review the existing situation with respect to the availability of such facilities and services in the Loddon Campaspe region, with a view to identifying deficiencies or limitations in the existing scale of provision of such facilities in the region, and the way in which the availability or otherwise of such services seems likely to influence the future pattern of development in the Loddon-Campaspe region.
4.1 Housing
(i) Supply of Housing
As indicated in Chapter 2 above, in the two years from June 1973, there was a marked acceleration in the level of dwelling construction activity in Bendigo. Activity in the other cities in the region (Maryborough, Castlemaine and Echuca) has remained fairly constant since 1970, with occasional peaks of activity associated primarily with the building of flats.
Despite the high level of building activity in Bendigo, accommodation, and in particular, acconunodation for rental purposes, remains in short supply and house prices and rentals have accelerated markedly in the past few years. Similar shortages exist in Maryborough and Echuca, where many short-term workers (e.g. teachers) find difficulty in obtaining adequate accommodation.
No comprehensive study of the factors influencing the supply of accommodation in Bendigo has been undertaken in recent years (comparable for example to that undertaken for Ballarat by the Ballarat Council of Social Service). Nonetheless it would appear that similar factors (e.g. the failure of the supply of adequate accormnodation at tertiary education institutions to keep pace with the growth in student numbers) might operate in Bendigo as in Ballarat.
(ii) Urban Renewal
A study of the age and conditions of dwellings in the Loddon-Campaspe region has indicated that many houses in the region tend to be old, many being over 100 years old, and thus many are in a somewhat dilapidated condition. Apart ·from replacement of these houses, schemes such as that implemented by the Urban Renewal Authority (U.R.A.) in the Bendigo area could be vital in the future development of the region. Urban renewal involves the replanning, redevelopment, restoration or preservation of an area for the purpose of rehabilitating it. Research is undertaken by professional staff employed by the Ministry for Housing with co-ordination and consultation being undertaken between representatives of the authority, local council representatives and residents who will be directly affected by policies.
Apart from the two major renewal schemes being planned in the Bendigo sub-region (in Bendigo ·city and Eaglehawk Borough) , two other schemes are under consideration within the region. In Maryborough there is a scheme involving six hectares in the central area of the town comprising a mixture of land uses varying from retail to residential including extensive areas of vacant land. In Kyneton there is a renewal progranune underway concentrating on the main shopping area to relieve traffic congestion. 35
4.2 Transport
As indicated in Chapter !·above, the developjng transportation network has played a critical role in the development of the Loddon-Campaspe Region. The existing transportation network in the region is illustrated in Figure 10. Currently the main method of movement of people and goods in the region is by road, with rail .transport also playing an important role.
(i) Road Transport
Major Highways
As illustrated by Figure 10, the primary road network in the Loddon-Campaspe region comprises a series of State highways which traverse the region primarily from north to south. East-west links within the region are fairly limited, reflecting the difficulty of providing such connections because of the need to build bridges across the Leddon, Campaspe and Avoca Rivers and to cope with the occurrence of flooding in the lower reaches of those streams. The road network servicing the region is dominated by the Calder Highway, the major link between Melbourne and Bendigo and beyond to Mildura, which forms a transport spine for the north-west of the State. Highways branch off from the Calder Highway near Castlemaine (the Pyrenees Highway) at Bendigo (the Leddon Valley Highway) and Charlton (Borung Highway).
The Calder Highway to Melbourne is the region's most important route because it not only connects the region directly with Melbourne but also connects with other highways leading to I Castlemaine, Maryborough and Ballarat. Despite its significant I function, the Highway is almost totally a two lane carriageway, with passing lanes provided on steep sections, although the following by-passes are planned: I ill extension of the Calder Freeway at Niddrie to by-pass Keilor and join the Highway at the :r a freeway standard by-pass at Diggers Rest to eliminate the level-crossing there (in the planning stage) ; and freeway standard by-passes for Gisborne and Kyneton (in the planning stage) • The Country Roads Board is presently reviewing its programme for further development of the entire road length between Bendigo and Melbourne. The upgrading of the highway is regarded as a matter warranting high priority in·any future programme for the development of the region. The Mcivor Highway from Bendigo to Heathcote and then on to the Northern Highway to Kilmore linking with the Hume Highway to Melbourne provides an alternative route between Melbourne and Bendigo. The distance via the Mcivor Highway is only 8 kilometres longer (157 as against 149). The recent completion of the Wallan to Broadford section of the Hume Freeway has further improved this route. 1 36 All urban centres of over 1,00.0 persons are served by at least one Highway which in turn links them to cities and towns outside the region. For towns not on a Highway, a system of Main Roads supplements the network.. On the other hand, because of the difficulties of providing crossings of the major rivers discussed above, road linkages between many of the urban centres in the region (e.g. between Bendigo and Maryborough, Bendigo and St. Arnaud, Maryborough and St. Arnaud) are often fairly indirect, thus reducing the ease of intra-regional communication. Rural Roads Secondary roads, which are mainly provided and maintained by Local Governments also play a critical role in the economic and social life of the region. Attention has already been drawn in Chapter 3, to the critical role which these rural roads play in facilitating access by residents of the remoter areas of the region to social services and facilities. In recent years the maintenance and upgrading of these roads has become an.increasingly difficult task for .Local Government Authorities in the region, faced as they have been with rapidly escalating costs and declining access to funds. Often funding of such roads has not been sufficient to maintain existing surfaces and structures let alone carry out necessary reconstruction. There is an urgent need to reassess the type, form of construction and financial programming of future road improvements within the region, taking into account the scarce financial resources likely to be available for such activity. Road Transport in Bendigo In 1971, the City of Bendigo, the Borough of Eagleliawk, the Shires of Huntly, Marong and Strathfieldsaye, the Transport Regulation Board ~nd the Country Roads Board co-operated to undertake an area-wide transportation study to identify specific transport needs in the Bendigo area and prepare a comprehensive programme to deal with them over time as funds become available. This was also a pre-requisite for Australian Government funds to be made available for arterial roads. The transportation plan resulting from the study has been adopted in principle by all the study participants and improvements to the system are underway. Work is proceeding slowly because funds are limited. The historical development of Bendigo has created a number of road traffic problems. The majority of roads were surveyed in the gold rush period, and many were laid out in a manner quite unsuited to modern day traffic, and can create added traffic hazards. The wide road reserves, 30 metres (99 feet) in the older urban areas with often large sections of unsealed gravel shoulders outside the central pavement, require continual maintenance involving scour replenishment and upgrading, which leads to high road maintenance and street cleaning costs. (At the same time the presence of such wide reserves often facilitates the upgrading of roads to cope with increased traffic volumes.) The road pattern in Bendigo is dominated by the Calder and Midland Highways which join in the City Centre and provide an important transport corridor. Although the highways focus on the City Centre, the problem of through traffic in Bendigo is much less than for Ballarat, as a number of alternative routes exist outside the urban area to enable passing traffic to bypass the city. TO KERANG ("'- ) Rail (Passenger & Freight) ' Rail (Freight Only) Highway ..._._ Railway '~ ~ Stream I ·-• Regional Boundary I EXISTING TRANSPORTATION _,,,J NETWORK Loddon - Campaspe Region Studies of the Centra l Highlands & Loddon - Campaspe Regions Fig. 10 37 Roads in the Bendigo sub-region may be classified into one of three functional classifications - arterial roads or those serving through traffic movement, extension of inter-regional movement or major traffic flow within the urban area; sub-arterials, or those supplementing arterial roads by providing connections between them and local streets; and local streets which mainly provide access to residential areas. Many roads and streets are performing all these functions. This occurs largely because:- a number of local streets parallel the arterial and sub~arterial roads and thus carry through traffic; most arterial and sub-arterial roads are serving residential areas; · and there is a lack of route continuity in many sections with ! . arterial roads flowing directly into sub-arterial roads and local streets. The road network within the Bendigo sub-region serves the area reasonably well, but it needs substantial improvement to:- improve previously unplanned road development; ' accormnodate existing and projected demands on the system; and to update the system to higher design, construction and " maintenance standards where appropriate. ) (ii) Rail Transport For many years, rail transport was the most important mode of transport to and from the Loddon-Campaspe Region. In recent years, however, rail travel has been supplanted by the private car and patronage of rail services has declined. Thus, despite an i increase of 18% in Bendigo's population between 1935 and 1970, ·.·).' outward rail passenger journeys declined by 50%. Similarly in Echuca, population increased between 1935 and 1970 by 70%, but outward passenger journeys declined by more than 60%. There has been a similar decline in the use of rail for purposes of moving freight. As indicated by Figure 10, the rail system in the Loddon-Campaspe region is characterised by a series of north-south lines, which, as elsewhere in Victoria are focussed on Melbourne. The topography of the region's southern areas has meant, however, that the focus on Melbourne has been channelled through the heavy duty, 162 kilometre double track which forms the link between Bendigo and Melbourne. Bendigo therefore acts as a.regional focus for the rail network, supplemented by lines to Maryborough, (on the Melbourne - Ballarat , Maryborough - St. Arnaud - Mildura line) and branch lines to Malden from Castlemaine and to Daylesford from near Kyneton. The Bendigo Echuca link extends across the border to Deniliquin in New South t Wales, channelling freight from the Riverina.through the region to Melbourne. J 38 Although the. existing network provides less coverage of the region than the system whi.ch was operating before a series of closures commencing in the 1930's (e.g. services to Heathcote, Redesdale, Lancefield and Shelbourne have terminated completely, whilst passenger services on the Dunnolly-Inglewood line have been discontinued), the Shires of Mcivor, Pyalong, and Ramsey are the only municipalities in the region where significant areas are more than 15 kilometres.from an operating line. Comprehensive proposals for the reorganization of Victoria's rail transport system have recently been put forward in the Report of the Board of Inquiry into the Victorian Land Transport System (the Bland Report). Implementation of these proposals will have a major impact on the provision of rail services to the Loddon Campaspe region. In order to improve the efficiency and competitiveness of the railways with respect to the delivery of freight, a series of regional freight centres is to be developed throughout the State to facilitate the co-ordinated delivery by rail and road of freight throughout the State on a door to door basis. The first of these freight centres is currently being developed at Horsham in the Wimrnera Region, but the Victorian Railways envisage the development in due course of a similar centre in Bendigo to serve most of the Loddon-Campaspe Region. The development of such regional freight centres is likely to benefit the residents of non-metropolitan Victoria by providing a faster delivery of goods to and from the regions. (iii) Air Transport The Loddon-Campaspe Region is currently serviced by four aerodromes capable of handling aircraft up to 7,500 kg weight (at Bendigo, Maryborough, Echuca and St. Arnaud). Authorised public landing areas are located at Kyneton, Boort, Elmore and Coonoer Bridge, and there are a number of private airstrips located throughout the region. Although no regular air services are available in the region, charter flights are currently conducted between several centres in the region and Melbourne as required. It appears that there has been increasing charter activity between Bendigo and Melbourne in particular over the past few years. 4.3 Basic Services (i) Water Supply A major factor which will influence the future scale of development which will be feasible in the Loddon-Campaspe Region is the l' availability of water. In general, water resources in the region I are limited and already there are important conflicts in the use of water for various purposes. Surface water resources in the region ~ are derived in the main from the Leddon, Campaspe and Avoca Rivers. The average annual discharges from these streams are as follows:- Leddon River 283,000 megalitres Campaspe River 282,000 megalitres Avoca River 73,000 megalitres There is a pronounced seasonal flow in all streams in the region and the region is also subject to periodic drought. The water resources available in the northern part of the region are supplemented by the Waranga Irrigation Channel which flows westwards across the northern plains about midway between Bendigo and the l Murray River to the north. Water derived from this and other j 39 smaller channels are used to irrigate large areas of the northern plains, thus increasing their suitability for the growing of cro~s and pastures. The potential for further utilisation of the Regiorrssurface water resources is limited. The Region's best water resources are already extensively utilised, and further utilisation will be at increasingly higher costs. Increasing demands for additional urban water supplies in the Bendigo sub-region for example, will .only be readily met by a reduction in the qilantity of water used for irrigation from the Caliban System, which supplies Bendigo and surrounding areas. In general, development in the Region involves increased competition for existing water resources, to which additions can only be made at-a significantly higher unit cost from supplies of lower quality. Some potential appears to exist in the region for the use of underground water resources, although the economics of such utilisation have not yet been explored in any detail. It is useful to explore the matter of providing water supply from the Caliban System in greater detail. The Caliban System of storages, which is illustrated in Figure 11 serves about 60;000 people in the Bendigo and Castlemaine areas and the surrounding rural country side. Water supply from the Caliban System is supplemented when necessary by an allocation of up to 14,5qo megalitres per annum available from Lake Eppalock. The annual deliveries of water to consumers, based on 1974/75 consumption figures, are 11,200 Ml. for urban purposes and 15,000 Ml. for irrigation and stock purposes. In 1972/73, a dry year, the urban consumption totalled 14,500 Ml. with the irrigation and stock deliveries just below 15,000 Ml. This means that the current demand, ex storages, is approximately equivalent to 17,500 Ml. for ~rban demand, and 29,500 Ml. for irrigation and stock demand when the respective delivery system efficiencies are considered. The future demands upon the Caliban system, which will arise from an increased urban demand, the demands generated by 'hobby farms' in the Bendigo area, and irrigation and stock demands, may ·lead to conflicts over water usage. The State Rivers and Water Supply Commission estimates that urban demand will increase by about 3% per annum, which on present expectations would double the total urban demand by the late 1990's; however, if the rate of increase was 4% per annum then the urban demand would double by the early 1990's. Figure 12 illustrates the future water supply situation which could arise under the unfavourable circumstances of drought conditions and the more rapid 4% per annum increase in demand for water for urban purposes. Other urban centres in the region also experience a variety of problems with respect to water supply. In a survey undertaken by the Loddon-Campaspe Regional Planning Authority in the year 1974-75 for example, twelve out of ·the eighteen municipalities in the region included in their survey indicated that they considered that the quality of water available in their localities was inadequate. Table 14 summarises the existing situation with respect to the provision of water supply in six of the major urban centres in the region (other than Bendigo) . TABLE 14 WATER SUPPLY IN MAJOR URBAN CENTRES OF LODDON-CAMPASPE REGION Urban Source of Supply Administering Existing Programmes Current Situation/Problems Centre Authority Boo rt Waronga Basin ,Boort Waterworks Trust Treatment plant opeped 1974.Quantity, via irrigation quality of water adequate. Some pipe channel. replacement required. Castlemaine Coliban System S. R. W. S. C. Supply prbblems in south-we$tern part of town. Some mains replacemen~ required. Echuca Murray River Echuca Water Trust Upgrading of purifi Supply adequate. Quality deteriorating, cation plant over 7 salinity increasing. Some reticulation year period at cost required in southern parts of town. of $750,000. Kyneton Little Coliban Kyneton Shire Supply augmented 1970 but will require Waterworks further increase. Quality difficulties. Maryborough Loddon River Maryborough Plans for filtration Supply adequate. Planned filtration via Evansford Waterworks plant costing plant will provide sufficient good Reservoir Trust. . $400,000 quality w~ter for foreseeable future • ·st. Arnaud Grampians via St. Arnaud Plans for upgrading System reguires complete overhaul Lakes Lonsdale Waterworks (est.cost $250,000) Water very hard, virtually all pipes and Bellf ield require replacement. ,-·-·-·-· QRaywood R. · 10 a.ft 1 HUNTLY \· SHIRE ( ~ .cockatoo Hill R. .< Sebastian R. 45 a. ft I ,,.J MA RONG 1 a. ft .( SHIRE Jackass Flat R. I 15 a ft ( ( Blue Jacket Gully R., j ::::". ~a.ft . · EAGLEHAVY:ib): ~- MARONGO Flagstaff R~¢.kfil1/' - · - · __; - . - · ( Specime: :i~~ ::·;~~N9 1 ~~~~s~yf~lat R. ) Crusoe R. 235 a .ft ,::-·-: · :-· · ·~• Solomon's R supplementary supply from Eppalack Reservoir 1 200 a .ft 5 a ft •pumping required• -----P.Le..Q.1NE ...... _ Green Gully Ra f)p Spring Gully R -- ...... 11a.ft60 2 000 a ft (used far picnic & fishing) Big Hill R. Eppalock R 2 a.ft 250 000 a ft STRATHFIELDSAYE (used for recreation) -·-··-. SHIRE ---. -- ·- ( ·.._ \. ·-. Barkers Creel~ Rt. · Maldon R. 2306 a.ft 18 a.ft a (used far picnics & fishing) 4 a. ft"if MAIN CHANNEL 13 a. ft length from Malmsbury ·Expedition Pass R. to Crusoe • 70 km 480 a.ftl----- Golden Point R. METCALFE 3 a.ft SHIRE Poverty Gully R. 3 a.ft Castlemaine R. 1100 a.ft Malmsbury R 14 520 a ft • Storages D Reticulated Areas · - · - Local Government Boundaries Bendigo·_ Surface Water Resources Lf1-n eD Studies of the Central Highlands & Loddon - Campaspe Regions Fig. 11 WATER USAGE TRENDS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE COLI BAN SYSTEM (1975-2000) 50 en Cl) UPPER LIMIT - OUTPUT AT CONSTANT EFFICIENCY Cl ....cu ~~o o 0 ------~90 ~('!,__ ----·- ti . c,O oe~ . f 1>· ~ E40 WATER AVAILABLE 0t"lo 9· v<'O~ ....0 .:: FOR IRRIGATION i...o< e \~ ALLOCATION AVAILABLE "1e <"'"" en AND STOCK cv< ~..._"('. · FROM LAKE EPPALOCK ....Cl) 1975 1980 1990 2000 Year NOTE: The above projection of a 4% compound urban growth rate in water consumption is illustra tive only - project'ion. of future water demand is not possible with a great degree of accuracy. The upper limit coul6 be signifi cantly raised by an improvement in the efficiency of the distribution system (currently about 0.64), therefore the above graph possibly over states future urban demand from storages. Water used for irrigation purposes in the Caliban system fluctuates from year to year, therefore it has not been shown as an additional demand curve. An indication of demand is given by figures from 1972/73 and 1974/75 which were, from storage, about 22,500-24000 megalitres respectively. Loddon - Campaspe. Region ~ Studies of the Central Highlands & Loddon·Campaspe Regions Fig. 12 41 - liil sewerage Existing arrangements for the treatment of sewerage in the urban centres of the Loddon-Campaspe region are summarised in Table 15. Sewerage schemes are also proposed or under investigation in Gisborne, Heathcote, Lancefield, Riddells Creek, Romsey and Woodend. A number of centres in the region do not have sewerage schemes but are serviced with septic tanks, (e.g. Malden, Boort, Pyramid Hill). A variety of problems are encountered in the region with respect to the treatment and disposal of wastewater, mainly reflecting the specific nature of drainage and soil conditions in individual locations. (iii) Drainage Within the Loddon-Campaspe Region, flooding and drainage problems are mainly confined to the northern plains, although every municipality has local drainage problems. Flooding and drainage problems with the region may be considered in one of the following three categories. (a) Local problems such as inadequate capacity in culverts or other drainage systems, which usually have a short-term and localised impact and are capable of local solution. (b) Flooding or drainage problems within one municipality which may be influenced by drainage systems or works in nearby municipalities. The solution to these problems will usually require integrated planning and works by the municipalities involved. (c) Flooding or drainage problems covering more than one, and usually several municipalities, often influenced to a large extent by flooding originating from beyond the Region. Local drainage problems are experienced in varying degrees by all municipalities, although it is of particular concern in the Bendigo sub-region and in townships such as Charlton, Boort, and Pyramid Hill. In the Bendigo sub-region, for example, the extension of urban development into the old gold mining areas is increasing the difficulty and cost of providing adequate drainage facilities in Marong Shire and Eaglehawk Borough. While this category consists of problems common within the Region, the fact that they are capable (subject to the availability of funds) of being satisfactorily resolved locally leads to the conclusion that they ar·e more properly a local problem rather than a 'regional problem'. The second category is one where integration of drainage planning and works is usually desirable beyond the scale of any one municipality if the most satisfactory solution is to be reached. Unless planning is integrated, situations may arise where 'river improvement' works in one municipality may lessen the flood risk in that municipality and appear beneficial,but aggravate flooding in the downstream municipality which may in turn be obliged to undertake 'river improvement' works. An example of such a problem occurs in the Shire of Huntly where intensified flooding has occurred downstream of the improved sections of Bendigo Creek. Urban development in the catchment of Racecourse Creek and Back Creek which originates in Strathfieldsaye Shire has also contributed to flooding problems in Huntly Shire. TABLE 15 SEWERAGE OF URBAN CENTRES IN LODDON-CAMPASPE REGION Urban Centre Population Method of Treatment ·Disposal· Served Bendigo 49,400 Primary sedimentation lagoons. Summer Irrigation and Bendigo Creek irrigation of pastures. Winter discharge of effluent to Bendigo Creek. Major extensions to treatment works under construction. Castlernaine 5,800 Primary sedimentation tanks, sludge . Campbell's Creek digester, trickling filters, humus tank, lagoons Charlton 1,400 Detention lagoons, irrigation Irrigation and Avoca River Cohuna 2,650 Detention lagoons, irrigation Irrigation and Barr Creek Echuca 7,600 Detention lagoons, irrigation Irrigation and Carnpaspe River Kyneton 3,500 Sludge digestion tanks, trickling filters, Irrigation s.ludge drying beds, irrigation. Maryborough 7,600 Separate sedimentation, sludge qigestion, Irrigation - Four Mile Creek trickling filters, sludge storage, to Leddon River sludge drying beds, ir~igation Rochester 2,150 Grit chamber, irnhoff tank, detention Irrigation - Campaspe River lagoons, irrigation St. Arnaud 2,830 Imhoff tank, humus tank, trickling filters, Irrigation - St. Arnaud Creek sludge lagoons, detention lagoons, irrigation .. 43 The third category of drainage problem is that involving municipalities in the northern parts of the region. Many of the municipalities (especially the City of Echuca, and the Shires of Rochester, Cohuna, Gordon and East-Loddon) are located on flat terrain with frequent natural depressions and often with ill defined drainage paths containing man-made obstructions. This terrain is crossed by rivers such as the Loddon, Avoca and Campaspe, and creeks such as the Serpentine, Bullock, and Picanninny. Floods were particularly severe in this part of the region in 1973, 1974 and 1975; the cost of repairing roads damaged by floods alone cost . in excess of $500,000. The origin of a substantial proportion of the flooding in the.northern fringes of the region is from waters entering the Murray River system beyond the region. The Victorian Government in 1975 undertook, through the public works committee, the Northern River Flood Inquiry which recommended the establishment of a regional drainage authority to assist in overcoming the problems experienced through flooding in the Northern Region. (iv) Basic Services - Summary A summary of the existing situation with respect to the provision of water supply, sewerage, solid waste disposal and drainage facilities in the main urban centres in the region is contained in Figure 13. 4.4 Preservation of the Environment As indicated in the Introduction, a major investigation was undertaken during the course of the present study to determine those areas of the region which were felt to be of significance for conservation purposes. Tables 16 and 17 list the features of the region identified during the course of the investigation as being "highly" or "moderately" vulnerable to destruction respectively. The identification of such natural assets in this manner may be seen as the first step towards developing a comprehensive conservation plan for the region. It is clear that all plans and programmes for the future of the Loddon-Campaspe region will need to take into account the need to preserve the features listed in Tables 16 and 17, according priority to those listed in Table 16. -Whilst the identification of these features in the above manner may be seen as the initial step towards developing a conservation plan for the region, it must be recognised that much more needs to be dorie to identify and define the various features of conservation significance in the region in more precise detail. In this respect it would seem sensible for the responsible authorities to draw on the extensive body of knowledge regarding the regional environment already assembled by local conservation groups. Such groups would of course need to be closely involved in the formulation of any conservation plan developed for the region. TABLE 16 AREAS OF CONSERVATION SIGNIFICANCE OF HIGH VULNERABILITY IN LODDON-CAMPASPE REGION Feature Type of Conservation Value Reasons for High Vulnerability Gisborne These quarries in the Slaty Creek and Riddellareas have some of Threat of renewed slate Graptolite the best graptolites ever found in the world, i.e. high quarrying. Quarries geological value. Wynwick's 122 ha. of private bushland in Waterfalls Road which has high Pressure to subdivide. Property at recreational value and could relieve visitor pressure from the Macedon Mt. Macedon Memorial Cross Reserve. Mt. Macedon High landscape and recreational value. Presently privately Pressu.re to subdivide. Northern Faces owned. William Ridge High landscape and historic value. This ridge is a uniquely Pressure to subdivide. north-south running ridge in the area and contains a rare aboriginal stone axe quarry. Bendigo Hill's property at Derrinal. Rare examples of well preserved Pressure to subdivide. Geology 2. glacial topography on the shore of Lake Eppalock. Mt. Tarrengower High scenic attraction and great landscape value. Threatened by timber cutting. (Castlemaine) Tooborac Very good forest with high landscape value. May be.· taken over by army expansion. Junortoun Privately owned area where rare Duck orchids grow. Pressure to subdivide. Whipstick An area of bush which has islands of florally-rich mallee In two parts and may be threatened by ecosystems. It contains all the local botanical associations small scale forest operations and with much Red Ironbark and Box woodlands. The'pattern of eucalyptus harvesting. mallee vegetation is as follows: E.viridis, in the south: E.behriana, E.viridis and E.incrassata in the centre and E.frogattii in the north. Mt. Korong An area of very bold granitic landscape. This area is quite Currently an active quarry on its uniquely landscaped for this part of the State. western boundary. Kaw Swamp In the past had much waterfowl, but now high water tables and Irrigation system continually salinity has killed most natural timber. Development requires increasing salinity of the area. control of water tables and re-establishme.nt of vegetation. Kerang This is the south-eastern portion of priine waterbird nesting There may be some State River and Wetlands wetlands - both freshwater and saline. The.most important Water Supply Commission pumping in freshwater areas are those with gently sloping margins, reed the area. beds and red gum/box on the waters edge. The most important saline areas have no reeds and are mainly for feeding. ,.. ESTER I \ __ _,I SEWERAGE WATER SUPPLY ADEQUATE NEAR CAPACITY ADEQUATE NEAR CAPACITY FOR FUTURE BUT PLANS FOR FOR FUTURE BUT PLANS FOR REQUIREMENTS EXTENTIONS REQUIREMENTS EXTENSIONS ~~~.,...~"'ii NO SCHEME NO SCHEME, NO SCHEME QUALITY AND BUT ONE IS OPERATING OR QUANTITY REQUIRES PLANNED IMPROVEMENT DRAINAGE SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL Highway Railway DRAINAGE MODERATE PROBLEMS Stream PROBLEMS DRAINAGE MINIMAL MINIMAL WORKS NEEDED Regional Boundary SE RIOUS EXTENSIVE NO SCHEME FLOODING DRAINAGE OPERATING BASIC SERVICES PROBLEMS WORKS NEEDED Loddon - Campaspe Region Stud ies of the Central Highlands & Lod don - C ampaspe Regions Fig. 13 OM.I. .L'HVd 46 CHAPTER 5. FORMULATING A REGIONAL PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY Part one of this Report has been directed towards identifying the major ecopomic, demographic, social, physical and environmental factors which appear likely to influence the future planning and development of the Loddon Campaspe Region. It has thus been concerned primarily with satisfying the specific study objectives outlined on page 2 of the Introduction above. The purpose of the second part of the Report, on the other hand, is to utilise the material contained in Part One to fulfil the general aims of the study programme, which, it will be recalled, were as follows: (a) determining the role to be played by the region in the State; (bl providing the basis for the preparation nf regional pluno and policies; and (c) providing a basis for advising Governments and authorities on appropriate policies to apply in the regions. The achievement of these overall aims of the study programme requires the formulation of a comprehensive strategy to guide the future planning aHd development of the Loddon-Campaspe Region, and it is that purpose to which P2rt Two of the Report is directed. - Before proceeding to develop the Etrategy which this Report recommends should be adopted as a basis for the preparation of plans and policies to guide the future of the Loddon-Campaspe region, however, it is necessary to discuss in general terms the characteristics which a planning and development strategy for a region such as the Loddon Campaspe Region should exhibit. 5.1 The Nature of a Regional Planning and Development Strategy A planning and development strategy for a region such as the Loddon Campaspe region normally comprises two elements viz: (a) an outline of the goals or objectives to be pursued by the strategy; and (b) specification of the policies and programmes (of both a short and long term nature) by which such goals or objectives are to be realised. If such a regional strategy is to be effective, however, anu not be merely a_ str~~egy which .exists 'on paper' a number of additional criteria rieed to be fulfilled as follows: (i) The goals and objectives incorporated into the strategy must be related to and consistent with the goals, objectives and policies adopted by Governments with respect to the planning and development of other regions of the State, and reflect a proper determination of the priorities to be accorded by Governments to particular programmes and policies in different parts of the State; (ii) The formulation of plans and policies to be applied in a particular region must be based on a realistic appraisal of the anticipated physical, social and economic changes in the region, and their immediate and long term implications. The region's strengths, capabilities and potential for future development need to be carefully analysed and objectively evaluated, and the limitations upon and problems associated with further development clearly identified. Aspirations which people have for the area m~st be mntr.hP.n ~~ainst ~=- -=:;,,,.,,.. ______....,,, ______....,. ~------~------""-"'==""""""=------=-·-~---· ™- ,,....,.._,___ ,.,. ___ TABLE 17 AREAS OF CONSERVATION SIGNIFICANCE OF "MODERATE" VULNERABILITY IN THE LODDON-CAMPASPE REGION Feature Type of Conservation Value Reasons for Modernative Vulnerability f, Hanging Rock Present crown land reserve with high recreational, geological Pressure to subdivide. and scenic value. Newham Good forest block close to Melbourne, thus has value even as Not specified. i1 I a buffer zone. Under grazing pressure because it i' Bendigo O'Sullivan's property at Spring Plans. Has outstanding i Geology 1. glacial topography and rocks of Permian age. is not fenced. I' Inglewood A small area which is important for its abundant and unique Area not fenced off. Rifle Range distribution of wildflowers. Lake Boort Very good associated natural timber and vegetation. Also European carp prevalent. has high recreational value and usage. Teddington 6,500 ha. of forested catchment which is used for town water Low recreational management level. Reservoir supply and fishing; and which has an abundance of birds and kangaroos. 47 the realities of needing to identi.fy and respond to those aims which are realisable, rather than those whi.ch are remote, and probably impossible to achi.eve. Moreover, in assessing the opportunities for, and constraints upon future development in the region, proper regard must be paid to economic and demographic trends and influences operating at the National and State level. (iii) The strategy must incorporate. consideration of the machinery and arrangements required to in\plement the strategy. If effective machinery for implementation ~f the strategy does not already exist, the strategy should suggest appropriate arrangements for co-ordination of planning and programming within the region. In other words, effective policies for the future of the Loddon-Carnpaspe region should exhibit three basic characteristics, viz: (a) policies for the Loddon-Carnpaspe region should be formulated positively within the framework of evolving Government policies for the administration, planning and development of other parts of Victoria; (b) likely demographic, economic and social trends at the national, state and regional levels must be recognised as such; and {c) policies should concentrate on trends which appear to be susceptible to influence by Government policy. Part Two of this Report is designed to recommend a strategy for the future planning and development of the Loddon-Carnpaspe Region which fulfills the various criteria discussed above. Thus the remainder of this chapter will outline the major planning and development decisions taken by the Victorian and Commonwealth Governments in recent years in order to assess their implications for the future of the Loddon-Carnpaspe region. Chapter 6 will draw on the analysis of Part One of the Report to summarise the major economic, demographic and physical factors influencing the future of the Loddon-Carnpaspe region and to identify t~e majo~ issues with which future policies and programmes will need to be concerned. The strategy recommended for the future planning and development of the Loddon-Carnpaspe region emanating from the analysis undertaken during the course of the study is contained in Chapter 7. Chapter 7 also considers the riature of the arrangements required to implement the recommended strategy. 5.2 State Planning and Development Decisions State Development Strategy Although the need for an overall strategy to guide the long term pattern of urban and regional development in 'the State of Victoria is being increasingly recognised, there is not, as yet, a fully articulated and comprehensive strategy for urban and regional development in the State. The absence of such a fully articulated strategy increases the difficulty of determining the role which the Loddon-Carnpaspe region is .to play in the future of the State, and thus of defining the policies, plans and programmes which should be implemented in the region. Nonetheless, in recent years, the Victorian Government either independently_ or acting in conjunction with the Commonwealth, has taken a number of policy decisions with respect to the promotion and/or control of development in various parts of Victoria which, taken together, constitute the genesis of an 48 urban and regional development strategy for the State as a whole. Whilst these decisions have oeen taken largely independently of each other, and their implementation has oeen pursued in parallel with little formal integration of the various programmes devised to implement those decisions (to permit for instance the identification of priorities), the ongoing commitment of Governments to those programmes does have major implications for the strategies and policies which might be pursued with respect to the future of the Loddon-Carnpaspe region. The major policy decisions made by the Victorian and Commonwealth Governments in recent years which are likely to have a significant impact on the future pattern of urban and regional development within Victoria are outlined below: (i) In 1967, the Victorian DeocntraliBation Advisory Committee in its report on the "Selection of Places Outside the Metropolis of Melbourne for Accelerated Development" recommended that the centres of Bendigo, Ballarat, the Latrobe Valley, Wodonga and Portland be chosen as the centres in non-metropolitan Victoria having the greatest potential for industrial and commercial expansion. Members of the Committee also recommended that the existing Division of State Development within the Premier's Department be established as a separate Department. This recommendation was implemented in 1970 with the creation of the Department of State Development under the State Development Act 1970. (ii) On 25th January, 1973, the Prime Minister of Australia and the Premiers of Victoria and New South Wales announced their agreement to accelerate the development of the cities of Albury and Wodonga as a regional growth centre, in accordance with the recommendations of the Victorian Decentralization Advisory Committee in its 1967 Report. The future growth of the complex as a major Australian city was committed by the three governments when on 23rd October, 1973, the Prime Minister and Premiers signed the Albury-Wodonga Development Agreement. The choice of Albury-Wodonga as a centre for accelerated growth, reflected the recognition by the three participating Governments of the unique advantages and proven potential of Albury-Wodonga as a location for substantial employment and population growth, arising in particular from its location on the major transport and communications corridor linking Sydney and Melbourne. ' (iii) In August 1973, the Victorian Government adopted Statement of I, 111 Planning Policy No. 7 which provided that the Geelong region should I be promoted and planned as a location for large scale urban growth. The adoption of this policy recognised the particular suitability of the Geelong region as a location for such growth because of the following factors: Geelong's established position as a'trading and manufacturing centre which together provided a firm base for further growth. Geelong's proximity and access to markets and employment opportunities in Melbourne, and its well established transport and communication links with the metropolis. The attractiveness of the natural environment surrounding Geelong and Geelong's access to significant recreation resources of a high standard. 49 (ivl On the 25th March, 1974, the. Victorian Premier identified Melton and Sunbury as locations for satellite towns in an interim strategy for the future development of the Melbourne metropolitan area. The decision represented a further development of Victorian Government policy to restrain growth to the east and south-east of Melbourne and provide further outlets to the north-west and west, expressed in Statements of Planning Policy concerning the Port Phillip area adopted oy the Government since 1970. In addition to the above, the Victorian Government has adopted a number of more general policy measures designed to increase job opportunities available in non-metropolitan locations, to facilitate further development and stabilise growth trends throughout the State and to increase the accessibility of non-metropolitan residents to Government facilities and services. These policy measures include:- (i) Provision of a wide range of incentives to encourage and assist the expansion and establishment of secondary industries in provincial centres under the State Development Act 1970, the Decentralized Industry Incentives (Payroll Tax Rebate) Act 1972, and the Decentralised Industry (Housing) Act 1973. Assistance is also provided to industries located in non-metropolitan areas by the Victorian Development Corporation established under the Victorian Development Corporation Act 1973. (ii) A programme to decentralise Government administration throughout the State in selected regional and sub-regional centres as part of the "Ten-Point Plan for Decentralisation". Under the latter programme, non-metropolitan Victoria has been divided into five districts, each containing two regions, which in turn contain regional centres in which major government employment units servicing the whole of the region will be located. Although final decisions on the centres to which such employment will be decentralized have yet to be made, it is possible to identify at least tentatively the centres in each district or region which have the capacity to act as district and/or regional centres. These are shown in Table 18. TABLE 18 Potential District and Regional Centres,· Victoria Potential District District Centre Region Regional Centre South West Gee long Barwon Geelong South Western Portland Western Ballarat Central Highlands Ballarat Wimmer a Northern Bendigo Loddon-Campaspe Bendigo Northern Mallee North East Albury-Wodonga North Eastern Albury-Wodonga Goulburn Gippsland Latrobe Valley Central Gippsland Latrobe Valley East Gippsland Sale 50 over the. last few years, the Commonwealth_ Government has also been developing approaches to decentralise in a similar manner the administration of programmes for which_ it is responsible. It will be noted that the centres identified as being potential regional centres were identified in the 1967 Report of the Decentralization Advisory Committee as being suitable centres for accelerated development within ?on-metropolitan Victoria. (i.e. Portland, Wodonga, Ballarat, Bendigo, Latrobe Valley} • The nomination of these centres as regional centres reflects the reoognition by the Government of the validity of the underlying arguments put forward by the Decentralization Advisory Committee in support of its recommendations. The Aims of Existing Government Policies and Commitments The policies and. programmes outlined above have the fulluw.i.uy yt!u~i:~l aims: (i) Within the State as a whole, Achieving a more balanced distribution of employment and population within Victoria by reducing the growth of Melbourne and increasing the rate of growth of employment and population outside the metropolitan area. Increasing the range of employment opportunities available in country areas by providing private · enterpr.ises and governments with the widest possible choice of suitable locations for economic activities, thus fostering both economic efficiency and equality of opportunity. Increasing both the range and quality of State Government facilities and services available to residents of non-metropolitan regions, consistent with the requirement to provide such facilities and services in an economic and efficient manner. (ii) Within the Port Phillip area, the stimulation of growth at Geelong to provide a major alternative in the south-west to growth in the Melbourne metropolitan area; and (iii) Within the Melbourne metropolitan area, the stimulation of growth in the west and north-west through satellite city development at Melton a~d Sunbury respectively, as a check on growth in the south, south-east and east which threatens the invaluable resources of the Mornington Peninsula, the Dandenongs and the Yarra Valley. An Evolving Strategy As indicated previously, the policy decisions already taken by the Victorian and Commonwealth Governments outlined above do not constitute a comprehensive and fully articulated strategy for the development of the State and its component regions. Rather what the policy decisions already taken represent is a gradually evolving urban and regional development strategy comprised of numerous complementary and interrelated elements. The present stage of evolution of such a strategy is represented diagrammatically 51 by Figure 14. As suggested by Figure 14, the exist:ing range of Government policy commitments implies the development within the State, at varying distances from Melbourne, of substantial regional centres which will play an independent but .complementary role in relation to the metropolitan area in expanding the range of economic and social opportunities available to Victorians, ·consistent with the objectives identified on page 50 above. Existing policy commitments suggest the emergence of two 'rings' of regional centres surrounding the metropolitan area as follows: Inner Ring: Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Latrobe Valley Outer Ring: Portland, Albury-Wodonga In line with past experience, it could be anticipated that the role which the several centres shown on Figure 14 will play in the future pattern of urban settlement in Victoria will vary considerably, according to a wide range of factors including the existing level of and relative potential for development in the various centres, their relative proximity and accessibility to Melbourne and other major urban centres, and the availability of specialised resources in particular locations (e.g. the brown coal deposits in the Latrobe Valley). Similarly the level of growth to be anticipated in the various locations will be affected by existing and future Government policy decisions. These decisions will be infl.uenced in turn by considerations such as the need to maximize the benefits to be derived from public sector investment decisions {e.g. with respect to the upgrading of major highways). and the need to obtain maximum advantage from particular opportunities for development {as in the case of Albury Wodonga) . Moreover it is clear that decisions relating to the choice of the several cent~es listed in Table 18 as potential regional centres will have an important bearing on the nature and level of development achieved in those locations. As emphasised above, the policy decisions summarised above in no way constitute a comprehensive and fully articulated strategy for the development of Victoria and its component regions. Much more work remains to be done in order to refine and develop further the emerging strategy, taking into account for example the potential for development in the various regions, the need to conserve important natural features such as parts of the coastline and the alpine areas, and the changing needs and preferences of society. Nonetheless, effective strategies and policies for the future of the various regions of the State {including the Loddon-Campaspe region) must be formulated progressively against the background of existing and emerging policies for urban and regional development within Victoria as a whole. It is also necessary to bear in mind the fact that the various policy commitments summarised above comprise an interrelated series of complementary policy decisions required to achieve the several objectives listed in the sub-section on page 50. Thus, whilst the promotion of substantial and accelerated growth at Albury-Wodonga and Geelong may make the most significant contribution to promoting a more balanced distribution of population and economic activities within Victoria and within the Port Philip area respectively, such developments in themselves will do little to improve the general welfare of communities located outside the regions in which the growth centres are located. On the other hand, whilst policies designed to promote increased accessibility of services and social and economic opportunities throughout Victoria will contribute to the economic and social well-being of people throughout the State, these policies in themselves are likely to reverse the continued concentration of population and employment in the Port Philip area. Thus the .policies of the containment and direction of growth in the Port Philip area represented by the Government commitment to the Geelong and 52 Melton/Sunbury projects, the promotion of accelerated growth.of Albury-Wodonga, and the development of regional centres throughout th.e State are to be seen as a complementary and integrated set of policies designed to achieve the objectives set out above. Similarly, notwithstanding the emerging nature of the urban and regional development strategy suggested by the policy decisions summarised above, it is possible to suggest from the preceding analysis an evolving h.ierarch.y of policy commitments by the Government which are broadly indicative of the Rriority to be accorded to the promotion of development in the various parts of the.State. Such a hierarchy might be represented thus - (i) Containment and improved management of growth in the Port Philip area through projects such as the Melton and Sunbury satellite cities project and the accelerated development of Geelong. (ii) The promotion of substantial and accelerated development in Albury-Wodonga. (iii} Development of numerous regional centres throughout the State along the lines outlined on page 49 above. 5.3 Implications for the Loddon-Campaspe Region What, then, are the implications of the foregoing analysis for the future of the Loddon-Campaspe region? It is clear that the region will continue to play a major role in the future pattern of urban settlement in Victoria by continuing to provide economic and social opportunities for a significant proportion of the State's population. Indeed, recent Government policy decisions have been directed towards increasing the share of the State's employment and population growth occurring outside the Melbourne metropolitan area, and of increasing the level and range of economic and social opportunities available outside the metropolitan area. Bendigo has been identified, along with the Latrobe Valley, Ballarat and Portland, as a centre which will play a significant role in achieving these policy aims, although its role, in terms of growth, may be secondary to that of the major growth centres of Albury-Wodonga and Geelong. Other centres in the region (e.g. Echuca) will also have important functions to perform if the range and quality of Government services and facilities available to residents of the region is to be enhanced. The development of policies which would enable the Loddon-Campaspe region to discharge the role implied for it by the emerging state strategy requires a thorough understanding of the specific characteristics of the Loddon-Campaspe region and also the particular needs and requirements of that region. The basis for identifying these particular needs and requirements has been laid in part one of this Report. Before proceeding to formulate a recommended strategy for the region, however, it is necessary to summarise the major influences affecting the future of the region, so that the major issues involved in planning for the future of the region may be identified, and appropriate policies and programmes recommended. / "I • I I : •Bendigo "a,r'" Ballarat ·a,r·· • Sunbury-Melton "g·· • Melbourne Latrobe Valley ··a,r·;;_..··....._ .:.__Jl-__.--,....111~--' •· I legend / g - designoh2d growlh cenlre ··a·· - polential' for accelerated development ··(· - potential regional centre I state · planning and de\Jelopment decisions CENTRAL HIGHL~NDS & LODDON,-CAMPASPE region fig. 14 53 CHAPTER 6. MAJOR INFLUENCES AND POLICY ISSUES As indicated in Chapter 5, the purpose of this chapter is to summarise the major economic, demographic and physic~! factors identified in Part One as being likely to influence the future of the Loddon-Carnpaspe region, and to identify the major policy issues with which those responsible for the formulation of policies and programmes to guide the future of the region will need to be concerned. 6.1 Demographic and Economic Considerations An important determinant of the nature of the future to which policy will need to respond in the Loddon-Carnpaspe region is the level of population growth which may be anticipated in the region and the likely nature and level of economic activity in the region. Population: Growth in population in the Loddon-Carnpaspe region may be derived from two sources:- (i) the natural increase of the existing population; and (ii) the immigration of persons into the region either from overseas or from elsewhere in Australia. Consideration of both these factors suggests that the level of population gr.pwth to be anticipated in the Loddon-Campaspe region in the future is rather limited. In the first place, it would appear probable 'that the growth of population to be anticipated in the Loddon-Carnpaspe region in the future from natural increase will be rather less than has occurred in the past. This is so for two reasons, viz: (i) as in the remainder of Australia, the birth rate in the Loddon Campaspe region has been declining in recent years, and it seems probable that this decline will continue; and (ii) even were the birth rate in the region to remain constant or increase in the future, the potential for further growth in population in the Loddon-Carnpaspe region is constrained by the existing age structure of the region's population. Relative to the rest of Australia, a low proportion of the region's population is of child bearing age, thus reducing the capacity for population increase in the region. There would, similarly, appear to be only limited prospects that migration (whether from overseas or elsewhere in Australia) will act as a substantial source of population growth for the region. Firstly, with respect to overseas migration, as suggested in the First Report of the National Population Inquiry, released in March 1975, it is difficu~t to anticipate any radical departure from the experience since World War II, whereby most overseas migrants to Australia choose to settle in the major metropolitan areas. Secondly, as recent studies of internal migration in Australia have shown, the·availability of job opportunities in a region is a major factor in attracting population to that region. As will be argued below, unless there are changes in existing Government policies relating to the promotion of employment and population growth in ditferent parts of Victoria, it appears unlikely, particularly in the short term, that the Loddon-Campaspe region will achieve the levels of growth envisaged, for example, in the Decentralization Advisory Committee's Report referred· to in Chapter 5 above. Even though the most r.ecent information relating to patterns of internal migration in Australia suggest some trend away from the substantially one-way flow from rural areas and non-metropolitan centres to the metropolitan areas which I L 54 characterised the 1960's it is difficult to anticipate that substantial numbers of these. migrants will choose to move to the. Loddon-Campaspe region. Employment and Economic Opportunities: As noted above, it appears that the growth of employment opportunities in the Loddon-Campaspe region in the future is likely to be limited for several reasons. In the first place, it would appear certain that the long term trend in the rural sector towards the amalgamation of holdings to allow larger-scale production, thus promoting more efficient production methods, will continue. The consequence of this trend will be a continuing decline in rural employment and thus in rural population. The rate and duration of the decline of rural employment and population in the future is difficult to project. The specific population level at which equilibrium in the rural areas will be reached is not known. Nonetheless, it would appear reasonable to anticipate a continuing erosion of the rural servicing base of many small urban centres in the region and an increasing dependence of population in rural areas on medical, educational and welfare facilities located in the larger regional centres. It is important to appreciate, moreover, that the decline in employment in rural industry throughout the region and the associated decline in the rural servicing function of small urban centres appears likely to continue, even in the event that incomes in the rural sector become stabilised or show a sectoral upward trend. With respect to manufacturing employment, the existing substantial manufacturing employment base of many major centres in the region, concentrated as it is in the clothing, footwear, textile and transport equipment industries, has come under threat in recent years as a result of accelerated wage increases and Government policy decisions with respect to tariff protection and the restructuring of industries. Many manufacturers in the region have been forced to retrench staff; the future survival of such manufacturers is dependent on their ability to diversify their markets or to develop specialised lines which can compete on the domestic market with imported goods. Whilst the tertiary sector has shown itself to be the most stable employment activity within the region in the last decade, with growth occurring in wholesale and retail trade, finance, community services and public administration, the potential for further growth in these areas will be limited by the expected slower growth in population. Regionalising of public and private sector activity could counteract this influence. However, any growth arising from greater emphasis on regional administration will be almost totally confined to one or two major centres within the region; in fact such a process may absorb regional functions which are currently located in smaller centres. Continued growth in tourism can be expected in most parts of the region, in line with the growth in tourist activities throughout Australia. In some areas (e.g. Echuca) it is possible that tourism may have a quite dramatic impact on local economies. The region, w111, however, be required to compete actively if it is to increase its share of tourist activity, as many other areas of Australia will also be seeking to attract a greater share of the tourist market. It would appear therefore, that the possibility of substantial employment and population growth in the Loddon-Campaspe region in the future will be dependent on the ability of the region to attract new employment opportunities and associated population growth to the region. A number of centres in the region (and in particular the Bendigo sub-region) would appear to have features whic~ would make them attractive to manufacturing industry (e.g. low cost of land, stable workforce), and it can be expected that those centres will continue to attract some industry as they did throughout 1974 and 1975. Since, however, it is probable that the growth of manufacturing employment in 55 Australia as a whole in the future is likely to be rather less than has occurred in the past and since, again, centres in the region will have to compete with other centres in the State for such manufacturing employment growth as does take place, it would be unwise to anticipate any major growth of manufacturing employment in the region in the future. Given therefore, the probability that population growth in Victoria in the future may be limited, and recognising that much of the growth will probably take place in the Melbourne Metropolitan Area (including Melton and Sunbury) , or in other areas designated for accelerated development under existing policies and programmes covering immigration, growth centres, designated development areas and satellite cities, it is simply not possible to project anything but a small increase in the population of the Loddon Campaspe Region. These conclusions may be difficult for some persons in the region to accept, as many directly correlate population growth with economic growth and believe that without continued population increases, little or no economic growth can occur. This correlation does not necessar ily hold, however; changes in production techniques and restructuring of industries particularly in agriculture, can all contribute to increasing economic welfare and rising incomes with no addition of labour. The economic base of a region or an urban area can be greatly strengthened without the requirement for influxes of population. 6.2 Future Level of Population Growth Notwithstanding the absence of a direct link between the economic and social well-being of the residents of a region and the level of population growth realised in that region, it remains true that the level and structure of population growth anticipated in a region has an important bearing on the nature and scale of the policies and programmes required in the region in the future. Thus it is necessary to give some specific consideration to the scale and composition of population growth considered likely in the region in the future to provide the basis for the preparation of specific plans and policies. It is difficult to make accurate predictions of the likely level of population growth in the Loddon-Campaspe region. The foregoing analysis suggests, however, that it is unlikely, given existing trends and existing Government policy commitments to accelerated development elsewhere in the State, that the future rate of population growth will exceed that of the recent past. If, for example, population in the region grew at the rate which occurred between 1961 and 1971, population in the region would reach 132,000 persons by 1986, an increase of approximately 3,800 over its 1975 population. This woul~ require, however, that the rate of increase (of 0.25% p.a. between 1971 and 1975) be exceeded in the next decade. It would appear probable that any population increase in the region will be largely confined to the Bendigo sub-region where a growth from 55,800 in 1974 to about 63,000 in 1986 can be anticipated. Outside of the Bendigo sub-region, it would appear that substantial growth can be anticipated in the four South Eastern Shires, Kyneton, Romsey, Newham and Woodend, and espec ially Gisborne (which grew by an estimated 23% between 1971 and 1974) as their role as commuting suburbs for Melbourne develops. It is probable also that Echuca can expect to maintain a steady growth rate. Population growth else where in the region will be confined to a small number of urban areas, unless there is a change in current government programmes, since many small population centres with their restricted employment opportunities and rural dependence can expect to be overtaken in function by larger centres. The rural areas of the region can expect a continuing slow decline in population. 56 6.3 Ph_ysical Constraints on Development In addition to the factors outlined above, it would appear that there are a number of physical constraints on the level of development which can be considered feasible in the Loddon-Campaspe region. There are three major physical constraints as follows: (iJ As indicated in Chapter 4 above, most of the region is handicapped to some degree in not being a water rich area. The supply of water is generally costlier than in many other parts of Victoria. This is due to a relatively high variation in annual rainfall (with a consequent variation in stream flow), coupled with a low surface run-off from much of the area. Water quality is also generally poorer than in areas with higher rainfall. (ii) In many parts of the region, relatively poor soils and a comparatively low rainfall combine to mean that many of the region's farmers are faced with attempting to maintain a livelihood from a fairly short .• growing season and on land which has a lower productivity than many other areas of the State. (iii) Development of much of the region is handicapped by the lack of a modern, efficient road connection between the major centre in the region (Bendigo) and the metropolis. In addition, although some parts of the region possess deposits of minerals which form the basis of local industries (such as the deposits of gypsum and salt near Boort, pipeclay at Axedale near Bendigo, and antimony at Casterfield near Heathcote, it possesses no significant metallic mineral resources, the development and exploitation of which might provide substantial employment opportunities in the region (as for example the brown coal de~osits in Central .Gippsland) . Other physical constraints include the incidence of flooding on the northern plains and drainage and flooding problems in the Bendigo sub-region as discussed in Chapter 4. 6.4 The Major Policy Issues Consideration of the above factors, together with the analysis of specific issues contained in Part 1 of the Report, suggest that there are six major policy issues with which those responsible for the formulation of plans and programmes to guide the future of the Loddon-Campaspe region will need to be concerned, as follows: . (i) the continuing decline in economic and social opportunities in the rural parts of the region and the increasing feeling of isolation and lack of access to services experienced by persons in such areas; (ii) the provision of employment opportunities and social facilities in urban centes to counter-act the recent adverse internal migration trends within the region; (iii) the development of programmes to overcome existing water supply problems in the region; (iv) the development of programmes to cater for the expected increase in the number of aged persons in the region; (v) the changing role of several shires in the southern part of the region as they increasingly become dormitory suburbs for Melbourne; Cvil the process of rural subdivision in various parts of the region. 57 Another issue which_ is of particular concern to many residents of the region relates to the cumulative. ~pact of the. higher cost of fuel and telecommunications compared with metropolitan areas on the capacity of industry to operate in the region. It is necessary to explore further the nature of each of these policy issues. 6.5 Economic and Social Opportunities in the Rural Areas One of the most important features of economic and social life in the Loddon-Campaspe region in recent years has been the continuing decline in incomes and employment in the predominantly rural parts of the region arising from the greater mechanisation of farming operations, the amalgamation of rural properties, and unfavourable trends in prices for_ primary products .• These trends have resulted in a cumulative decline in the rural servicing functions of many small towns, and the concentration of 'such functions in the larger towns. Small towns which have long had a dependence on servicing the rural sector are seeing many of their former trade and social activities, as well as their workforce and population, lost to centres which have been able to be more responsive in their development to the restructuring and change which has been occurring. People living in rural areas_ are forced to travel considerable distances for services and facilities. Improved roads and greater willingness to travel long distances in motor vehicles means that many small centres are being by-passed. The demise of the smaller· rural towns in combination with the age imbalance in rural areas (which is heavily weighted towards elderly persons) means that there is an increasing dependence by the population in rural areas on medical and welfare facilities located in large regional centres, and particularly in Bendigo. These trends are not of course, confined to the Loddon-Campaspe region, but may be observed throughout Australia. It seems unlikely that the trend towards larger and more capital intensive rural holdings can be reversed. Moreover~ even in the event of an upward trend in rural incomes, it is probable that rural servicing functions will continue to concentrate in the larger centres. On the other hand, there has, in recent years, been a great increase in the range and quality of social, educational and health facilities available in the Loddon-Campaspe region. Although such facilities have been established primarily in Bendigo, the fact remains that services are now available in the region which formerly were available only in Melbourne. It is clear, moreover, that residents in the region appreciate this change. The need still exists, however, to increase the accessibility of residents in the rural parts of the region to these services by continuing to modify the way in which services such as health are delivered within the region. A particular difficulty lies in the fact that it is becoming increasingly hard to attract professional people such as doctors and dentists to live in smaller communities, where the opportunities for professional development and contacts are limited and where their services are likely to be underutilised. 6.6 Increasing Employment Opportunities in Urban Areas Chapter 2, above has drawn attention to the role which out-migration, particularly of young people, played in explaining the relatively poor population growth performance of the major urban centres in the region in recent years. Bendigo and other urban centres in the region have not succeeded in intercepting the movement to Melbourne of young persons leaving the rural areas because of lack of employment and .social opportunities. The ability of Bendigo and the 58 other large urban areas to attract and hold those leaving the land in the future will be. fully tested. Although_ Bendigo has in recent years developed an increasing range of educational, sporting and social facilities which render it desirable as a place to live, the greater attractiveness of Melbourne in terms of range of employment and social facilities inevitably will lead many people to move out of the region. If· this situation is to be redressed, it will be necessary for a wider range of employment opportunities to be provided in the urban centres, and for Governments to continue their policies of building up the social facilities available in regional areas. In the particular circumstances of the Loddon Campaspe region, this implies that special attention be given to preserving, and if possible enhancing, the economic bases of the cities of Maryborough, Castlemaine and Echuca. In this respect the provision of a wide range of readily available rental accommodation will be of critical significance. In addition, it is clear that the ability of many parts of the Loddon-Campaspe region (including Bendigo) to attract employment opportunities is constrained by the lack of amodernefficient road link between the region and Melbourne. An integrated programme designed to create employment opportunities in the Loddon~campaspe region would therefore recognise the importance of progressively upgrading the road link between Bendigo and Melbourne in particular, as a means of overcoming the isolation experienced by employers and employees living and working in the region. 6.7 Water Supply As indicated in Chapter 4 above, development in most of the Loddon-Carnpaspe region is handicapped to some degree by deficiencies in the available water supply, with respect both to the quantity of water available and its quality. The region has experienced significant droughts in the past and it is probable that such droughts will continue to recur in the future. It appears probable that, in time, significant conflicts could develop in the region between the use of water for urban purposes and the use for irrigation purposes, particularly for example, in relation to the Caliban System of storages. The development and intensified use of irrigation procedures in the northern part of the region have created problems associated with rising ground water levels and high salinity. The complex inter-relationships between ground water tables, quantities of water used for irrigation, soils and salinity conditions have major implications for the types of crops grown and the farming practices in the area. Whilst recent events have focussed attention on the problems arising from flooding ·in several parts of the region (and in pa:r.t:i.cular, in the Northern Plains), the greater significance of tbe pr.obable long-term deficiency in· :(, water availability in the region should not be lost sight of. It was recognition of this fact which recently led the Loddon-Carnpaspe Regional Planning Authority through its Water Resources Committee to commission a study of the human aspects of water resource development in the region. It is clear that the matter of guaranteeing an adequate water supply in the Loddon-Campaspe region is one which warrants early attention. ( 6.8 Care of the Aged As pointed out in Chapter 2, an important feature of recent demographic trends in the Loddon-Campaspe region has been the progressive increase in the proportion of aged persons in the regional population. The Loddon Campaspe region contains a higher proportion of aged persons in its population than does any other region in Victoria (11.8%). It would appear that the region can anticipate a continuing increase in the number of persons aged 59 65 years and over resident in the region in the years to come. Many of these older persons are retiring in Bendigo where a wide range of social and health. facilities. are available. Nonetheless, as pointed out in Chapter 3, there remain a number of important gaps in the range of facilities for aged people available in Bendigo. rt would appear therefore that the matter of the provision of an adequate range of facilities for aged persons and the development of appropriate arrangements for the care of aged persons is one and programmes for the which should be 1 ac~orded priority in Government plans Loddon-Carnpaspe'/region. ' ' 6.9 Growth of Shires Adjacent to Melbourne As pointed out in Chapter 2, an important feature of the geographical pattern of growth in the Loddon-Campaspe region in recen.t years has been the high rate of growth of small urban centres in those parts of the region close to Melbourne. Much of this growth can be attributed to the·developing role of these centres as dormitory suburbs for Melbourne. Much of the development in areas adjacent to Melbourne is taking the form of the break-up of rural holdings into small sub-divisions for use as "hobby farms" and "rural retreats". Whilst these developments have brought numerous benefits to the areas most affected by them, (e.g. an increased level and variety of retail services) as elsewhere in the region, such rural sub-divisions also cause a variety of problems with respect to land management,. destruction of natural landscape, provision of services and disposal of waste (see below) • In addition the provision of social facilities in some areas (e.g. Kyneton) has not kept pace with the level of growth, thus creating backlogs in the services available to people residing in such areas. Property owners in the Macedon area have become increasingly aware that further development must be drastically curtailed in their areas if the natural resources of the area, which have led to its attraction are to be retained. It will be important that the formulation of planning policy with respect both to the expansion of Melbourne and to the management of the Macedon Ranges incorporate adequate protection for the management of the process of rural subdivision in adjacent shires. 6.10 The Process of Rural Subdivision The matter of the subdivision of highly attractive and productive rural land and areas of native vegetation for hobby farms and/or recreation purposes is also a critical issued in other parts of the Loddon-Carnpaspe region (e.g. adjacent to Bendigo). As elsewhere in the State, the proper guiding and control of subdivisions in important natural resource and rural areas is being aggravated by land speculation practices. Aside from the major costs to the public which widespread rural subdivisions are causing through the demands of land holders for construction and maintenance of roads, the supply of water, the control of vermin and noxious weeds and the supply of electricity (which the State Electricity Commission estimates at $10 million annually), many environmental abuses can result from inadequately planned rural subdivision, for example:- (a) disruption to or destruction of natural landscape, vegetation and drainage systems; (b} pollution of creeks due to inadequate waste disposal when basic facilities cannot be provided; (cl increased fire hazards because of poor land management techniques; (dl loss of productive agricultural land; and (e) possible destruction or loss of native wildlife. 60 The pressure to continue to develop rural land is great because. i.t is relatively inexpensive, obtainable in large. parcels and lends i.tself to the fulfillment of many peoples goal of a recreational retreat on a comparatively large area of land. Greater attention needs to be given, however, to gaining maximum effectiveness from existing and future public facilities and services. As applied to the physical development of the Bendigo sub-region in particular, this would mean an emphasis on infilling development.or redevelopment of land within the urban area. Unless there is a strong policy of well considered redevelopment to balance extension of the urban fringe and rural subdivision, the underdeveloped areas such as part of Eaglehawk for instance, and the many scattered areas of derelict mining land, are likely to remain as they are. As well as the possible environmental consequences of encouraging and providing for substantial development in the rural area near Bendigo, as outlined above, Local Governments face difficult financial and equity problems in catering for such growth (e.g. with respect to the method and level of rating of properties in such areas)·. Such developments also have important social implications. These various problems may assume particular significance if the nature and magnitude of rural subdivision which takes place is out of context with the demand for such development. It is important that proper policies to manage and control such development be formulated and implemented at an early date. The urgent need for such policies is well appreciated by the Loddon-Campaspe Regional Planning Authority whose land use committee is currently undertaking an extensive investigation which should provide the basis for the formulation of such policies. In this it will be greatly assisted by the work relating to the social implications of rural subdivision incorporated into the various town planning reviews undertaken by municipalities in the region, utilising grants made to them through the Loddon-Campaspe Regional Council for Social Development under the Australian Assistance Plan. 6.11 Other Matters of Concern There are a number of other specific matters, some of a relatively localised nature, which require early attention in any set of programmes and policies relating to the future development of the Loddon-Campaspe region. These are discussed below. Communications. As indicated in Chapter 4 above, the increasing use and dependence on motor vehicles and greater use of roads by tourists are placing a mounting strain on many sections of transport network. Much of the road system in the rural areas serving farms and small towns is unsealed. The cost of maintenance of the existing road system is rising rapidly and lessening the funds available for reconstruction and new alignments. Maintenance of the numerous rural roads, especially those in the northern half of the region periodically damaged by flooding, is vital to the social and economic well being of the rural community and to overcoming the sense of isolation experienced by that community. Indeed such a sense of isolation appears to be experienced throughout the region, and in this respect the early development of a modern efficient road link between the region and Melbourne is of critical significance. The region's sense of isolation is also increased by the fact, of which many people in the region are particularly conscious, that, in common with other non-metropolitan areas elsewhere in Australia, residents have to pay more than their metropolitan counterparts for fuel, and for telecommunications and freight services. This would also appear to be an important influence on the attitudes of industrialists towards locating their operations in the region, although the precise significance of telecommunications, fuel and freight 61 charges, in relation to other ;factors. determining the location decisions made by industrialists, is dif:E;i.cul t to determine. The. pr icing policies of the authorities responsible for the provision of such services are generally related to the cost of providing such services in non-metropolitan locations, although. some concessions (e.g. with respect to rail freight charges) are already made to users outside the metropolitan areas. Consideration should be given, however, to devising means to minimize the adverse economic and social impact of such policite on non-metropolitan areas. Housing. As indicated in Chapter 5, most of the population growth in the Loddon Campaspe region in the next 10 to 15 years is likely to take place in the Bendigo sub-region and in shires adjacent to the metropolitan area. It will be essential that the housing industry in the region be equipped to.cater for this growth and to overcome the backlog which currently exists in many centres in the region in the provision of rental accommodation. Much effort will be needed to replace existing ageing and sub-standard dwellings, as well as those houses requiring renovation and repair. More replacement of old houses due to deteriorating structures is likely to be required in the period up to 1986 than has occurred in the past. A policy of utilising undeveloped land or large scale redevelopment within the urban areas of the region would improve the housing situation, increase the readily available supply of building blocks,and better utilise the existing infrastructure of services and facilities. Conservation of Natural Vegetation. Chapter 4 drew attention to the progressive clearing of many areas of natural vegetation which has taken place in the Loddon-Campaspe region. There is an urgent need to formulate appropriate policies to control further clearing in such areas, especially in those areas which are privately owned. It will also be necessary to formulate policies to guarantee the preservation of the various unique species of flora and fauna which are found in several parts of the region, in particular those identified in Tables 17 and 18 above. Flooding and Drainage. As indicated in Chapter 4, attention also needs to be paid to programmes designed to control the incidence of flooding on the Northern Plains, and to overcoming drainage problems in the Bendigo area and other urban centres in the region. 6.12 Developing a Sense of Regional Identity It would appear that one of the most important prerequisites for the development and implementation of adequate policies, plans and programmes to cope with the emerging problems in the Loddon-Campaspe region will be the development of a cohesive regional identity. Indeed, the acid test of successful planning and development in the Loddon-Campaspe region may well be the extent to which the fostering of development and the location of Government services in selected urban centres in the region can be seen as expanding the range of economic and social opportunities available to all residents of the region. For example, if the location of major Government services in centres such as Bendigo and Echuca can be seen more as increasing the range of services available to all residents in the region rather than as eroding the service base of existing urban centres, then the stage will be set for maximising the benefit to be derived from expenditure on such fac;:ilities in the region. If such an approach were to be adopted, the 62 importance of continually upgrading and maintaining intra-regional transportation networks and of exploring new ways of increasing the accessibility of all regional residents to services such as education and health would need to be recognised. The development of a regional identity and a framework for regional co-operation will also be important in assisting Local Government to overcome the numerous problems which currently confront them in providing the wider range of higher quality services now demanded of them. Occasionally neighbouring Local Government units have duplicated facilities and 9ervices, rather than pooling resources to deal with cominon problems and to cope with similar needs. This occurrence is likely when more than one Council is involved in the administration of the same urban area. The net effect of all these factors is often spiralling costs set against a limited capability to meet such costs. . The successful fostering of a sense of regional identity will be largely dependent on the organisational approach adopted for purposes of planning and administering the region in the future. The matter of organisation for the future of the region will therefore be discussed further in Chapter 7 below. 63 CHAPTER 7. RE.COMMENDED REGIONAL PIANNING AND DE.VELOPMENT STRATEGY Having analysed in Chapter 5 the emerging framework of urban and regional development policy in Victoria, within whose context policies and progranunes relating to the future of the Loddon-Campaspe region need to be formulated, and having identified in Chapter 6 the major policy issues emerging from the analysis of the economic, demographic, social and physical factors influencing the future of the region contained in this Report, it is now possible to propose appropriate strategies and policies for the future development of the region. Chapter 7 is therefore concerned with:- (i) the outline of a recommended planning and.development strategy for the Loddon-Campaspe region including the identification of the goals to be pursued by such a strategy and the policies required to achieve those goals; and (ii) a discussion of means available to implement the recoi:nrnended strategy. 7.1 Regional Goals The starting point for the development of an effective regional planning and development strategy for the Loddon-Campaspe region is the determ1nation of the goals to which that strategy is to be directed. As implied throughout this report, it is important that such goals be based on a realistic assessment of the prospects for development and growth in the region, and of the impact on the region of external demographic, economic and social influences and government policy decisions. The analysis in Chapter 6 of this Report has indicated clearly that the Loddon-Carnpaspe region appears to have limited growth prospects in the light of its knqwn resource base, its recent growth performance and the not insubstantial level of existing government support already provided to the region in terms of specific subsidies and capital investment. Moreover, the policy and budgetary implications of existing government commitments as outlined in Chapter 5 reduce all likelihood that the rate of development in the region in the period up to 1986 will be accelerated as a result of a significant increase in direct.public and therefore private investment. The implications are that there remain three broad alternative options to which regional planning and development strategies and policies might be directed, viz: (i) a continuing decline of population and employment opportunities throughout most of the region and continuation of the decline in the region's share of the total population of Victoria; (ii) the maintenance of the region's present share of Victoria's population and employment opportunities recognis~ng that there are likely to be continuing changes in the distribution of population and employment within the region; (iii) a gradual increase in the population and employment opportunities available in the region relative to the State as a whole, which would, in turn, imply a higher level of government and private investment in the region than has occurred in the recent past. It is necessary that the long term effects and implications of each of these options be carefully evaluated. 64 Option 1: There is invested in the Loddon-Campaspe region and principally in the major centres, a large amount of public resources in terms of socio-economic infrastructure which in many cases is already underutilised. As an illustration, some of Bendigo's urban infrastructure could service a much larger population than the existing one. The continuing decline in population and employment opportunities throughout the region would not only increase the underutilisation of existing public infrastructure, but would necessitate an even higher level of government subsidisation on the provision of the most basic level of public utilities and services throughout the region. In addition, the lack of employment opportunities would further accelerate the present drift of certain population age groups to the Melbourne metropolitan area, thus exacerbating its existing problems of urban concentration and leading to new requirements in urban infrastructure which would only duplicate the already existing underutilised infrastructure in the region. This population drift could finally lead to an accelerated downward spiral which gives rise to or is associated with, major social problems. Thus on both economic .and social grounds and in terms of the interests of both the State as a whole and the region's residents, Option 1 is undesirable. Option 2: Given that the present substantial but generalised level of government subsidisation and assistance has been insufficient to maintain the rate of growth of the region's population and.employment relative to that of the State as a whole, the. fulfillment of Option 2 implies a need for the concentration of government resources into a number of urban centres where, if present trends continue, most of the region's population will eventually concentrate. There would evolve within the region a definite urban hierarchy in the provision of both public and private services, dependent on the sizePof each urban centre and/or on its accessibility to residents in different parts of the region. This increased concentration would create economies of scale and external economies which would be beneficial both iri terms of the effectiveness of public capital and the attractiveness to private investment. Job opportunities in the public sector could also be improved by the regionalisation of suitable State and Commonwealth government activities. Option 3 :· As suggested above, this option would require accelerated development through a concentrated level of public and private investment which, in the light of the region's lack of a specific growth base, the government's implied State development strategy, and the prevailing economic conditions, appears beyond the realm of the possible in the next 10 - 15 years. Having examined all three broad options available, it would appear that Option 2 is the only alternative which can be considered realistic at the present time. It is recommended therefore that the minimum goal which future strategies for the planning and development of the Loddon-Campaspe region should seek to achieve is the maintenance of that region's share of Victoria's population. 65 It is important at this point to draw attention to the fact that many of the policies and programmes which will be t?equired to achieve the above minimum goal in the Loddon-Campaspe region will be different from those required for example if a similar goal were adopted for the adjacent Central Highlands region. This arises oecause of the nature of the existing settlement pattern of the Loddon-Campaspe region, where the dominance of Bendigo in the region is much less than the dominance of Ballarat in the Central Highlands region, and where considerable distances separate the main centres of population in the region. Thus if the overall goal of population retention in the Loddon-Campaspe region is to oe realised, it will be important to devise policies not only to stabilise and maintain employment and population growth trends in Bendigo, but also to preserve and develop the economic bases of the other major urban centres in the Loddon-Campaspe region, i.e. Maryborough, Castlemaine, Echuca, and St. Arnaud. Moreover, the physical constraints on development in the Loddon-Campaspe region (particularly with respect to the availability of water) are far greater than in the Central Highlands region. This has important implications for the nature of the policies which need to be developed to effectively implement the proposed strategy for development in the Loddon-Campaspe region, particularly with respect to the priorities to be accorded to various policies and programmes. Related Goals The overall goal proposed above for the future planning and development of the Loddon~Campaspe region is, of course, necessarily highly generalised. If that general goal is to be realised it will be necessary to pursue a-number of related general goals, many of which would be common to strategies for regional development in all regions of Victoria. The most important of these are as follows:- ) (i) To maximize the utilisation of existing infrastructure in the region; (ii) To increase the economic and social opportunities available to residents of the region and to increase the accessibility of regional residents to an improved and wider range of community facilities and services; (iii) To develop and maintain a hierarchy of related and identifiable communities in the region through the provision of physical and social infrastructure at a level appropriate to the role which the community plays in the life of the region; (iv) To preserve the uriique attributes of the regional landscape; (v) To minimize the pollution of land, water and the atmosphere. Regional Goals and Regional Policies As indicated in Chapter 5 above, a regional strategy is comprised of two main elements;. a statement of the goals to be pursued by the strategy, and an outline of the policies required to achieve those goals. If policies recommend_ed to achieve the goals for the Loddon-Campaspe region suggested above are to be effective, however, it is imperative that those policies be specifically related to the peculiar characteristics and circumstances of that region. It will be the purpose of the remainder of this Chapter therefore, to ind-icate the specific policies which should be applied in the Loddon-Campaspe region in order that the regional goals suggested above may be achieved, having regard to the particular policy problems which exist in· the Loddon-Campaspe region, as identified in Chapter 6. 66 7.2 Recommended Policies As noted above the starting point for recommending policies and programmes for the future planning and development of the Loddon-Campaspe region must be a recognition of the unique characteristics and requirements of the region. In general terms, policy prescriptions based solely on those characteristics and problems which the Loddon-Carnpaspe region appears to share with other regions of Victoria may be largely inappropriate and ineffective, if they are not specifically tailored to the particular requirements. of the Loddon Carnpaspe region. This has particular application to the question of determining policy priorities, a matter which will be further explored in Section 7.3 below. The most important characteristics of the Loddon-Campaspe region which must be recognised in framing.policies to achieve the goals of the strategy proposed in Section 7.1 above are the isolation of many parts of the region from Bendigo, the existence of several substantial urban centres in the region apart from Bendigo, and the fact that the future of many parts of the region is subject to differing independent influences. The specific policies required to implement the strategy for the Loddon Carnpaspe region suggested in this report may be grouped in three separate categories, as follows:- (i) Policies relating to the structure and pattern of urban settlement in the region as a whole. (ii) Policies relating to the provision of social facilities in the region. (iii) Policies relating to development and the provision of basic services in the region, particularly in the major urban centres. (i) The Pattern of Urban Settlement As indicated in Chapter 1, the existing pattern or urban settlement in the Loddon-Carnpaspe region is hierarchical in character, with several centres playing distinctive complementary roles in providing employment opportunities and services for residents in different parts of the region. As suggested above, realization of the minimum overall goal of the regional strategy recommended in this Report (viz, maintenance of the region's existing share of Victoria's population and employment opportunities) will require that the existing larger urban centres in the region each maintains and strengthen .. -its~existing function within the regfoh. This will require policies which will be designed to achieve the following specific objectives:- Maintain Bendigo as the primary centre in the region and increase its capacity to provide employment opportunities and higher order services and facilities to the residents of the region. Preserve existing employment opportunities in Maryborough and Castlemaine by seeking to encourage existing manufacturing establishments in those cities to diversify their markets and expand their product range as appropriate. Seek to strengthen the role which the City of Echuca plays in providing employment opportunities, services and facilities to residents in the northern parts of the region. 67 Similarly, recognise the ·role wbicl:Lthe town of St. Arnaud plays in providing services and facilities for residents in the western areas of the regiori. Ensure that the smaller urban centres in the region (e.g. Boortl continue to provide a range of services and facilities appropriate to their role and function within the region. It would appear that three particular.sets of policies (i.e, those relating to the creation of employment opportunities in the region, those rela~ing to improving transportation links between the region and Melbourne, in particular, and those relating to the provision of social services and facilities in the urban centres in the region) will be critical in achieving the specific objectives of the strategy as set out above. The following paragraphs will therefore discuss the policies considered appropriate with respect to each of these sets of policies. EmployID.ent Opportunities As suggested in Chapter 6 above, the major condition which must be fulfilled if the urban centres of the Loddon-Campaspe region are to succeed in continuing to provide economic and social opportunities for a significant proportion of Victoria's population is that an adequate level and range of employment opportunities be provided in those centres. In general there would appear to be three main areas in which employment opportunities might be generated in the Loddon-Campaspe region, viz: (i) Government employment (ii) Private sector tertiary employment (iii) Manufacturing employment. Some of the ~mployment opportunities which need to be generated in the region will undoubtedly continue to be created by the continuing location of Government employment in regional and sub-regional centres (and particularly Bendigo) in line with the programme of progressive regionalisation of administrative arrangements currently being implemented by the Victorian Government. It would appear to be appropriate for the Commonwealth Government to rationalise the location of its employment along similar lines. There will still be a need,. however, to attract private employers to the region both in the manufacturing and tertiary industries. As indicated in Chapter 6 it seems unlikely that significant amounts of private sector tertiary employment will be attracted away from the metropolitan areas in the short term. Emphasis will therefore need to be placed on continuing to attract a range of manufacturing establishments to the various centres in the region in order to expand the range of employment opportunities available. Similarly there would appear to be restrictions on the number of manufacturing establishments which are likely to be attracted to the Loddon Campaspe region in the future. In the first place, the growth in the number of manufacturing establishments and employment on an Australia-wide basis appears likely to be rather less than has occurred in the past. Secondly, if manufacturing employment does grow more rapidly than currently expected, the commitment of Governments to promote substantial development at Albury/Wodonga and Geelong as summarised in Chapter 5 above, may make those 68 centres more attractive as centres for business location. Nonetheless in line with experience even in the adverse economic conditions which have existed in Australia in the last two years, it can be expected that the various urban centres in the Loddon-Campaspe region will continue to attract some manufacturing enterprises, utilising the assistance provided under the Victorian Government's decentralisation incentives scheme. Efforts need to be made in fact to increase both the number and range of manufacturing enterprises choosing to locate in the Loddon-Campaspe region. In order to achieve this objective, it may be necessary that there be a change of emphasis in the administration of the Victorian Government's decentralisation incentives programme. Thus in the past, many of the establishments attracted to the region under this scheme have been in industries (such as the manufacture of clothing or textiles) which have uncertain or at least limited growth prospects or which depend to a significant extent on high levels of tariff protection for continued viability. As indicated in Chapter 2, some establishments have been forced to close often only a short time after setting up in the region. Such a situation makes local economies highly vulnerable to fluctuations in the level of economic activity and major Government policy decisions. Although the data in Table 8 above suggests that a more diverse range of manufacturing activities has been attracted to Bendigo in particular in the past year or so, it remains. essential that the criteria on which firms receiving decentralisation assistance are chosen be refined. As recent experience clearly indicates, firms in a number of industries other than the manufacture of clothing and textiles for example·, are likely' to be attracted to Bendigo and other centres in the region by the low cost of land and the apparent availability of substantial amounts of underutilised female labour as highlighted in Chapter 1 above. Greater emphasis should be placed on identifying those growth sectors of manufacturing industry whose characteristics might make them susceptible to attraction to regional centres. In addition, it would appear desirable that in the further development and administration of decentralisation policies, GQverrunents should seek to make more effective use of the opportunities afforded by the range of social facilities in the larger urban centres such as Bendigo and Ballarat, by giving higher priority to programmes designed to enhance the attractiveness of those centres as residential and business locations. Transport and Communication A second factor which will be of critical significance in achieving the overall goal of preserving and enhancing the level of employment opportunities available in the region will be the implementation of programmes designe~~to • upy~ade the transportation links between the Loddon-Campaspe region and Melbourne in order to overcome the existing feeling of isolation experienced by businessmen and residents in the region. Whilst the rail link between Melbourne and Bendigo is already of a high standard, the level of service to the region would be enhanced by a decision to develop Bendigo as a regional freight centre as part of the Government's progressive implementation of the recommendations relating to such centres contained in the Bland Report referred to in Chapter 4 above. Early efforts should also be made to upgrade the Calder Highway between the region and Melbourne so as to provide a modern efficient road link between the region and Melbourne. As discussed in Chapter 6 above, Governments should also give consideration to devising means to minimise the adverse economic and social impact on the region of existing pricing policies with respect to telecommunications facilities and energy supplies. 69 (ii) The Provision of Social Facilities \ As suggested in Chapter 6 one of the most important policy issues involved in planning for the future of the Loddon-Carnpaspe region will be the development of policies and programmes designed to increase the accessibility of all residents in the region, particularly those in the smaller urban centres and the rural areas, to those Government provided services such as education and health which are essential to the well-being of all residents in the region. As implied by the analysis in Chapter 3, improving .the accessibility of such services to residents of a region such as the Loddon-Carnpaspe region involves decisions regarding three separate elements viz. (i) What kind of service is to be provided and how much? (ii) Where are particular services to be located? (iii) What arrangements are going to be made to ensure that all residents of the region can have access to the full range of services provided? (iv) Does increasing the accessibility of services involve altering the organisational framework in which services are provided? In relation to the first two of these questions it would appear that the traditional approach of providing services on the basis of need relative to populat.ion, taking into account the relevant technical, .administrative and financial constraints of providing particular service~ is likely to continue. As a result the level of service provided in particular centres is likely to be related to the size of that centre, thus resulting in the development of a hierarchy of service centres throughout the region. It would appear, however, that a case exists for modifying this approach somewhat in the Loddon-Campaspe region in recognition of the distances separating many urban centres in the region. In particular it would appear to be desirable to accord Echuca the same status as Castlemaine and Maryborough with respect to the provision of social and Government facilities, reflecting the particular role which Echuca plays in the economic and social life of the region and its relative isolation from the higher order services available in larger urban centres. Similarly St. Arnaud might be accorded higher priority than say Rochester in the provision of certain facilities because of the latter centre's closer proximity to Castlemaine and Echuca respectively. As indicated in Chapter 3, the criteria on which to evaluate the adequacy imprecise • or otherwise of particular social services and facilities are somewhat and often difficult to define. Nonetheless the present study has identified the following specific areas in which improving the accessibility to services and facilities in the Loddon-Campaspe region would appear to be largely a matter of increasing the level of service provision in particular centres:- The provision of community health centres in Echuca, Maryborough, Kyneton and St. Arnaud. Increasing the supply of rental accommodation in Bendigo, Castlemaine, Maryborough and Echuca. Increasing the number of welfare officers and social workers throughout the region. 70 I.n certain circumstances on the. other hand, it would appear that increasing the. accessibility of residents of the various parts of the region to services and facilities is not so much. a matter of increasing the absolute number or level of personnel or facilities in individual locations, but depends more on the manner in which resources already available in the region are deployed. Thus it would appear that the location of a dentist or general practitioner full-time in all urban centres in the region is not the only way in which accessibility to these facilities can be enhanced in such centres. Well publicised regular visits to smaller urban centres by such personnel based in the larger towns may be an alternative way of providing an adequate level of service in many instances. Specialised medical services based in Bendigo might be provided throughout the region on a similar basis. In some circumstances it may be that a combination both of increasing the level of provision of existing services and of developing new ways of organising and providing services and facilities in response to changing community needs and circumstances may be required. This would appear to be the case with respect to arrangements for care of the aged in the region which, as noted in Chapter 6, is a matter requiring priority attention in any set of programmes and policies for the future of the Loddon-Carnpaspe region, particularly in view of the fact noted in Chapter 3 that the Loddon Carnpaspe region has the highest proportion of persons aged 65 years and over in its population of any region in Victoria (11.8%). The existing waiting lists for institutional accommodation for aged persons throughout the region, and the fact that in many centres aged persons requiring more particularised care appear to be taxing general hospital facilities, suggest that there is a need to ~rovide more aged persons' accommodation and 'day hospitals' in centres throughout the region. The likelihood that the number of aged persons requiring such care will continue to grow in the future further increases that need. But at the same time recognition of the fact that in many instances institutionalised care may not be the most appropriate method of catering for old persons' needs suggests the need to develop new programmes with respect to the provision of domiciliary care and such community based services as meals on wheels, home help, etc. It is necessary finally to recall the relationship pointed out in Chapters 3 and 4 between policies and programmes designed to upgrade the level of social services and facilities available in various centres in the region and policies and programmes designed to guarantee quick access to those facilities. As ~ indicated in Chapter 3, increasing accessibility to services and facilities is not merely a matter of upgrading the level of provision of specific facilities, but ?lso_require~ that. residento to be able Lu transport themselves • to such facilities as quickly as possible, particularly in emergency situations. In the specific circumstances of the Loddon-Campaspe region this means that action must be taken to maintain and upgrade rural roads throughout the region. Programmes for this purpose have been subject to increasing strain in recent years, as indicated in Chapter 4, as a result of rapidly escalating costs. Nonetheless, it is important that early action be taken to formulate and implement a programme to upgrade rural.roads throughout the region. (iii) The Provision of Physical Services As indicated in Chapter 4, development in many parts of the region is constrained by the shortage of water. Early action is required therefore to develop and implement programmes to guarantee an adequate water supply in all parts of the region. In the northern parts of the region, at the same time, early action is required to implement an effective programme of drainage and flood control. \ 71 In each of the major urban centres of the region, a series of.specific policies are required to ensure that the future growth of those centres takes place in an orderl_y and efficient manner and that the physical services needed to cope with the future growth of each centre are available as needed. Thus, in Bendigo, the following specific policies are required: (a) Encourage future urban development to occur as infill by facilitating the utilisation of undeveloped land close to th~ existing urban area. (b). Introduce regulations to control the subdivision of non-urban land in areas adjacent to Bendigo • . (c) Take early action to implement a programme of works to provide adequate drainage in the various parts of the Bendigo urban area identified in Chapter 4. • (d) Eliminate the physical servicing backlogs identified in Chapter 4 . In Castlemaine, Echuca and Maryborough, efforts should be concentrated on eliminating the specific urban servicing backlogs in each of those centres identified in Chapter 4 above. (iv) Other Specific Recommendations (a) Development in the Southern Shires As indicated in Chapters 2 and 4, in different parts of the region development pressures exist which need either to be managed or controlled in order to ensure that maximum overall benefit is detained from such development. Thus in the southern parts of the region, early action must be taken to integrate effectively policies designed to manage the process of rural subdivision taking place in .the shires of Gisborne, Newham and Woodend, and Kyneton in particular with more general strategies for the future outward growth of Melbourne. (b) Preservation of the Environment In those areas of the region identified in Tables 17 and 18 of Chapter 4, on the other hand, early action needs to be taken to ensure that the features of conservation s_ignificance listed in Tables 17 and ia are not destroyed as ·a result of development pressures prevailing in those areas. 7.3 Policy Priorities (i) Immediate Priorities The above discussion has concentrated on listing the numerous policies which will need to be implemented across a wide range of areas if a realistic and sensible planning and development strategy is to be formulated and implemented for the Loddon-Campaspe region. Clearly, if past practice is any guide, the financial and administrative resources available to implement the proposed strategyareunlikely to be sufficient to allow the immediate implementation of all of the policy recommendations outlined above. Moreover, no information is yet available on the level of financial and other resources likely to be available to implement the proposed strategy even in the immediate future, depending as this does on decisions which need to be made in the annual 72 budgetary context. The determination of the priorities whi.ch should be adopted in implementing the policies proposed above is therefore so~ewhat hamstrung. Nonetheless, it is suggested that whatever the level of budgetary resources available, pi:iority should be. accorded in the Loddon-Carnpaspe region to action designed to upgrade social, health and educational facilities in the major urban centres throughout the region, to the development of ·progranunes to guarantee an adequate supply.of water in the region, to the provision of a modern, efficient road link between Bendigo and Melbourne and to the implementation of an effective progranune of drainage and flood control in Bendigo and the northern parts of the region. It is also necessary that early action be taken to develop and implement policies designed to cope with tlie various problems associated with the rapid growth of rural Shires in those parts of the region adjacent to Melbourne. It will be important that arrangements for the management of such development ·-~ in this part of the region be co-ordinated with the management of similar developments in other shires adjacent to Melbourne located outside the Loddon- Campaspe region (e.g. in Bacchus Marsh Shire). It is recommended that .- the Government should pay specific attention to these areas when formulating its proposed statement of planning policy for metropolitan expansion. (ii) Future Policy Action In addition to the specific policies outlined above, there are a number of additional matters relating to the future planning and development of the Loddon-Campaspe region.which require concerted policy action over a longer term. The development of detailed policies in respect of these matters are part of the ongoing process of formulating and implementing a comprehensive development strategy for the region, for which the present report provides the basis, although it represents only the initial. step in the process. Examples of matters requiring early consideration and action include:- (a) Providing for improved liaison between and co-ordination of the activities of Government departments and instrumentalities and local authorities within the region. As a starting point, Government departments at both Commonwealth and State levels should be encouraged to adopt common regional boundaries for purposes of planning and administration of the various progranunes for which they are responsible. (bf· Re-evaluating the current C.R.B. road improvement progranune for the region, to determine priorities for the upgrading and maintenance of major linkages and rural roads respectively in the li.ght of the strategy for regional development recorrunended in this Report. (cl Progressive implementation of the recorrunendations contained in the Bendigo Transportation Study. (d) Further decentralisation and rationalisation of Federal and State Government activities to the region and providing for effective devolution of responsibilities leading to increased local autonomy. (e) Refurbishing and/or replacing outdated education building stock through the region. (f) Expanding and upgrading facilities for the training of teachers, nurses and allied medical staff within the region. (gl The development within the region of short courses for the training of welfare workers, infant welfare sisters and kindergarten teachers. 73 (h) The development of plans and programmes for the provision of adequate level and range of recreation facilities throughout the region. Such_ plans and programmes are needed noth to cater for the needs of the residents of the region and to further enhance the attractiveness of various parts of the region to tourists. A starting point for the development of such programmes could be the compilation of an inventory of recreation facilities available in the region. Some work on this matter has been commenced in the Bendigo sub-region by the Bendigo Committee for Recreation which comprises representatives of the five municipalities in the Bendigo sub-region. 7.4 Organising for Regional Planning and Development As indicated in Chapter 6 above, it would appear that a critical element in the success of any set of programmes designed to cater for the future of the Loddon-Carnpaspe region will be the fostering of a sense of regional identity which will enable the residents of the region to work together to provide an adequate range of economic and social opportunities for the region's residents. The residents of the region have already recognised the need for and value of a regional approach in the planning and provision of social services and facilities (through the Loddon-Carnpaspe Regional Council for Social Development) , tourism (through the North Central Regional Tourist Authority), Local Government finance (through the Regional Organisation of Councils) and strategic planning (through the Loddon-Carnpaspe Regional Planning Authority). The Loddon-Carnpaspe region is the only region in Victo~ia where all four of these statutory regional organisations are currently operating. The Regional Planning Authority provides a region-wide forum for identifying and discussing planning and development goals, problems and opportunities. Although all Local Governments within the region have not joined this voluntary statutory authority, the existence of this body provides the basis for people in the region to more readily proceed to the preparation of a comprehensive long range planning programme for the area as well as a more immediate, short range programme to guide investment of public funds in the region. Such a body can also play an important role in developing a proper regional identity by assisting all of the Councils in the region to achieve a balanced regional planni~g approach. The authority is already demonstrating its ability, particularly through its water resources and rural land use committees, to come to grips with and initiate action on important issues concerning the region as a whole. Similarly, the Loddon-Carnpaspe Regional Council for. Social Development has achieved much by adopting a regional approach in its task.of co-ordinating and integrating the work of the multitude of Government and • private authorities and organisations involved in.promoting the social development of the region. The work of the Regional Planning Authority up to the present, however, has been hampered by the lack of resources available to the. authority to carry out the tasks assigned to it. If the authority is to play its rightful role in developing and implementing a strategy for the future of the Loddon-Carnpaspe region, it is imperative that the resources available to the authority both in terms of finance and manpower be increased. Similarly, it is important that resources.be provided to enable the Loddon-Carnpaspe Regional Council for Social Development to build on the valuable \·:ork it has already done in co-ordinating the identification of social needs and the provision of social services in the region. There remains a need however, to develop complementary machinery to co-ordinate the work of the multitude of Government authorities and instrumentalities involved in serving the people of the Loddon-Carnpaspe region. A focus for developing effective machinery to co-ordinate such activities might be provided 74 through. the establishment in the. Loddon-Campaspe region of a regional co-ordinating group provided for under Section 7l2l of the State Co-ordination Council Act 1975. The Advisory Conunittee establi.shed for the purposes of the present study could in fact constitute the nucleus of such a co-ordinating group. It will be important, however, that the work of such a group be effectively integrated with the ongoing activity of the Loddon-Campaspe Regional Planning.Authority. -----, 75 ADDENDUM - IMPLICATIONS OF THE 1976 CENSUS RESULTS In November 1976, after most of the work on. the Loddon-Campaspe Regional Study had been completed, the first preliminary results of the 1976 Census of Population and Housing became available. The trends in population in the Loddon-Campaspe Region revealed by the Census differ in several important respects from the official inter-censal estimates of population used in this Report. The purpose of this addendum therefore is to highlight the nature of these differences and to discuss the extent to which the regional planning and development strategies reconunended .in this Report might need to be modified in the light of the 1976"Census results. 1. Comparison of Census Results with Intercensal Estimates .. 1.1 Regional Population Growth The most important difference between the 1976 Census results and the earlier estimates of population relates to the rate of growth of population in the Region. As indicated in Table 4 of the main report, the intercensal estimates suggested an average annual rate of growth of 0.25% per annum, which is much less than the rate of 1.29% per annum revealed by the census. The tendency of the intercensal estimates to underestimate growth is conunon to nearly all non-metropolitan regions of Victoria as indicated by Table A.l. Table A.l. - Comparison of Estimates of Average Annual Rate of Growth of Population in Non-Metropolitan Regions of Victoria. Region 1971-1975 1971-1976 (A.B.S. Inter-censal Act11al Growth Estimates) Barwon 1.47 1. 73 South West -0.74 -0.09 Central Highlands 0.20 1.02 Winunera -1. 71 -0.24 Northern Mallee -0.25 0.36 Loddon-Campaspe 0.25 1.29 Goulburn 0.20 0.53 North East 0.99 1.56 East Gippsland 0.74 1.25 Central Gippsland -0.09 -0.05_ Source: A.B.S. Victorian Office, Estimates of Population in Local Government Areas at 30 June, 1975 (Reference No_. 16); Census of Population and Housing, 30 June, 1976, Statistical Divisions, Statistical Districts and Local Government Areas, 1976 (Preliminary) and 1971 (Reference No. 2.01.2). In large measure this underestimate of growth in non-metropolitan Victoria is attributable to the considerable overestimate of growth in the Melbourne Metropolitan. region revealed in Table A.2 (although the total State population was also overestimated in the intercensal estimates). Table A.2. - Population of Victoria, Melbourne Region & Remainder of Victoria 1971, 1975, 1976 Victoria Melbourne Remainder of Region Victoria 1971 (Census) 3,502,351 2,533,114 969,237 1975 (International est.) 3,667,700 2,687,570 980,130 1976 (Census) 3,646,301 2,637,704 1,008,587 Source: As for Table A.l. 76 1.2 Distribution of Growth With respect to the distribution of population growth in the Loddon-Campaspe Region, comparison of the Census results with the inter-censal estimates reveals the following: (i) Consistent with the underestimate of growth in the Region as a whole, the inter-censal estimates considerably underestimate the rate of growth in the Bendigo sub-region, and in several municipalities adjacent to the Melbourne region as indicated in Table A.3. Table A.3. - Estimated and Actual Rates of Growth of Population Bendigo Sub Region and Municipalities Adjacent to Melbourne. Estimated Rate of Growth Actual Rate of Growth 1971-1975 (% p.a.) 1971-1976 (%p.a.) Bendigo Sub-Region 1.23 1.92 Gisborne Shire 7.99 10.93 Newham & Woodend Shire 1.71 2.66 Romsey Shire 0.74 4.23 Source: As for Table A.l. (ii) On the other hand, the census results confirm several important features of population trends within the Region as follows: (a) The continuing decline in population in many of the rural shires of the Region (e.g.Bet Bet, Charlton, Cohuna, East Leddon, Gordon, Kara Kara and Korong) . (b) The generally stationary nature of population levels in the major urban centres of Maryborough and Castlemaine and the continued steady growth of Echuca. (c) The increasing importance of Bendigo as the major urban centre in the Region. Thus the Bendigo sub-region's share of total regional population increased from 40.4% in 1961 to 42.8% in 1971 and 44.3% in 1976. 1.3 Factors Underlying Population Change The population trends in the Loddon-Campaspe Region revealed by the 1976 Census are consistent with a number of the indicators of economic and social change reviewed earlier in the Report. Thus the growth of population in the Bendigo sub-region between 1971-1976 recorded in the Census is consistent with the location of numerous new manufacturing establishments in the area (see pages 19-20), the high level of building activity in Bendigo (pages 23-24), and the location of more Government tertiary employment in Bendigo -(page 25). - Equally, the continued concentration of higher order Government education health and welfare services in Bendigo (pages 28-31) has reinforced Bendigo's role as the major regional centre, and contributed to its continuing growth. Population trends in Castlemaine and Maryborough reflect the continuing difficulties ex perienced by the major manufacturing enterprises which constitute the economic base of those centres (pages 19-20),and with the generally static level of I building activity in those centres (pages 23-24) . The decline of population in l_ the rural areas reflects the continuing difficulties experienced by rural industries throughout the Region as a result of adverse price/cost trends affecting those industries (pages 15-17, 54). The growth in Bendigo is consistent with the Australia wide pattern of growth between 1971 and 1976 whereby major non-metropolitan centres considerably increased their share of national population growth. This is indicative of an apparent change in the residential preferences of the Australian population, in i favour of medium to large centres, and away from the major metropolitan areas of Sydney and Melbourne. i j I'\ 77 2. Implications for Recommended Planning and Development Strategies The purpose of this section is to assess the extent to which the planning and development str~tegy recommended for the Loddon-Campaspe Region in Chapter 7 might need to be modified in the light of the 1976 census results, as reviewed above. The strategies were directed towards maintaining and/or increasing the share of the Loddon-Carnpaspe Region in total State population, in anticipation of a continuation of those forces which had influenced population changes in the region between 1961 and 1971, and which the available official estimates suggested had continued beyond 1971. In fact, however, as indicated by Table A.l., the Loddon-Carnpaspe Region's population growth rate in the 1971-1976 period was surpassed only in the Barwon. and North-eastern Regions, both of which contain areas chosen by Governments for special programmes to accelerate growth (i.e. Albury-Wodonga and Geelong - see page 48). As a result the Loddon-Carnpaspe Region increased its share of total State population from 3.61% in 1971 to 3.70% in 1976. The population totals of both the Loddon-Carnpaspe Region and the Bendigo sub-region in 1976 exceeded those mentioned elsewhere in the Report as being likely in 1986 if the trends suggested by the inter-censal estimates of population continued (see page 55). These facts do not reduce the need for many of the strategies and policies recommended in the Report. In the first place it needs to be borne in mind that, just as there have been dramatic changes in population trends in all Regions in the State (including the Loddon-Carnpaspe Region) in previous periods, so too the continuation of the 1971-1976 inter-censal trends is not assured, especially in the light of the lesser overall rate of national and State population growth which is now occuring. Thus, consistent with the overall objective of Government policies to achieve a more balanced distribution of population within Victoria (page 50) , continuing efforts to attract population to the Loddon-Carnpaspe region will be necessary. Secondly, the regional strategy recommended in Chapter 7 is also designed to cater for the changing distribution of population within the region which will have an important impact on the economic and social character of the Region. Thus the 1976 census results confirm th~ need for policies and programmes designed to preserve and diversify the economic bases of the cities of Maryborough and Castlemaine (page 66),to generate alternative employment opportunities throughout the Region (page 68),and to enhance the accessibility of residents in rural areas to community services and facilities (pages 69-70). Growth of Bendigo at even h~lf the rate recorded between 1971 and 1976 would increase the urgency of policies and programmes to overcome the shortage of water in the region (pages 70, 72), to overcome various backlogs in the provision of ,. physical infrastructure and housing in Bendigo (page 71), and to upgrade transport and communication links between the region and Melbourne (page 68). Similarly, growth of population in those municipalities close to Melbourne (e.g. in Gisborne, Newham and Woodend and Romsey Shires) reinforces the requirements to develop policies to integrate effectively the process of growth in those shires with more general strategies for the future outward growth of Melbourne (page 71). 3. The Monitoring of Change The foregoing analysis also highlights the need to continuously review a wide range of factors influencing change at the State, regional and sub-regional levels, in order that policy formulation and programme implementation may keep pace with the process of change in the Region. For this reason, the early implementation of the recommendations relating to organising for regional planning and development contained in Section 7.4 of the Report would appear to be essential.