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Hoover Digest HOOVER DIGEST RESEARCH + OPINION ON PUBLIC POLICY SPRING 2021 NO.2 George P. Shultz 1920–2021 THE HOOVER INSTITUTION • STANFORD UNIVERSITY The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace was established at Stanford University in 1919 by Herbert Hoover, a member of Stanford’s pioneer graduating class of 1895 and the thirty-first president of the United States. Created as a library and repository of documents, the Institution approaches its centennial with a dual identity: an active public policy research center and an internationally recognized library and archives. The Institution’s overarching goals are to: » Understand the causes and consequences of economic, political, and social change » Analyze the effects of government actions and public policies » Use reasoned argument and intellectual rigor to generate ideas that nurture the formation of public policy and benefit society Herbert Hoover’s 1959 statement to the Board of Trustees of Stanford University continues to guide and define the Institution’s mission in the twenty-first century: This Institution supports the Constitution of the United States, its Bill of Rights, and its method of representative government. Both our social and economic systems are based on private enterprise, from which springs initiative and ingenuity. Ours is a system where the Federal Government should undertake no governmental, social, or economic action, except where local government, or the people, cannot undertake it for themselves. The overall mission of this Institution is, from its records, to recall the voice of experience against the making of war, and by the study of these records and their publication to recall man’s endeavors to make and preserve peace, and to sustain for America the safeguards of the American way of life. This Institution is not, and must not be, a mere library. But with these purposes as its goal, the Institution itself must constantly and dynamically point the road to peace, to personal freedom, and to the safeguards of the American system. By collecting knowledge and generating ideas, the Hoover Institution seeks to improve the human condition with ideas that promote opportunity and prosperity, limit government intrusion into the lives of individuals, and secure and safeguard peace for all. HOOVER DIGEST RESEARCH + OPINION ON PUBLIC POLICY SPRING 2021 • HOOVERDIGEST.ORG THE HOOVER INSTITUTION STANFORD UNIVERSITY HOOVER DIGEST RESEARCH + OPINION ON PUBLIC POLICY SPRING 2021 • HOOVERDIGEST.ORG The Hoover Digest explores politics, economics, and history, guided by the HOOVER scholars and researchers of the Hoover Institution, the public policy research DIGEST center at Stanford University. The opinions expressed in the Hoover Digest are those of the authors and PETER ROBINSON do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Hoover Institution, Stanford Editor University, or their supporters. As a journal for the work of the scholars and CHARLES LINDSEY researchers affiliated with the Hoover Institution, the Hoover Digest does not Executive Editor accept unsolicited manuscripts. BARBARA ARELLANO The Hoover Digest (ISSN 1088-5161) is published quarterly by the Hoover Senior Publications Manager, Institution on War, Revolution and Peace, 434 Galvez Mall, Stanford University, Hoover Institution Press Stanford CA 94305-6003. Periodicals Postage Paid at Palo Alto CA and additional mailing offices. HOOVER POSTMASTER: Send address changes to the Hoover Digest, Hoover Press, INSTITUTION 434 Galvez Mall, Stanford University, Stanford CA 94305-6003. © 2021 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University THOMAS F. STEPHENSON Chair, Board of Overseers CONTACT INFORMATION SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION SUSAN R. McCAW Comments and suggestions: $30 a year to US and Canada Vice Chair, Board of Overseers [email protected] (international rates higher). (650) 723-1471 CONDOLEEZZA RICE http://hvr.co/subscribe Tad and Dianne Taube Director Reprints: Phone: (877) 705-1878 ERIC WAKIN [email protected] (toll free in US, Canada) Deputy Director, (650) 723-3373 or (773) 753-3347 (international) Robert H. Malott Director Write: Hoover Digest, of Library & Archives Subscription Fulfillment, SENIOR ASSOCIATE PO Box 37005, Chicago, IL 60637 DIRECTORS ON THE COVER CHRISTOPHER S. DAUER KAREN WEISS MULDER George P. Shultz, the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow, had a DANIEL P. KESSLER long, productive career of public service. Director of Research Hoover director Condoleezza Rice writes ASSOCIATE in tribute: “George was a statesman—a DIRECTORS leader, a teacher, and a man who valued all DENISE ELSON that is just. He tirelessly served this nation SHANA FARLEY with pride. George’s passing represents JEFFREY M. JONES a tremendous loss not only for the Hoover COLIN STEWART community, but for our nation and this ERYN WITCHER TILLMAN world.” See special section starting on (Bechtel Director of Public Affairs) page 9. [Cover photograph by David Hume Kennerly. © Center for Creative Photogra- ASSISTANT phy, Arizona Board of Regents] DIRECTORS KELLY DORAN VISIT HOOVER INSTITUTION ONLINE | www.hoover.org SARA MYERS SHANNON YORK FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL MEDIA DOWNLOAD OUR APP TWITTER @HooverInst Stay up to date on the latest FACEBOOK www.facebook.com/HooverInstStanford analysis, commentary, and news YOUTUBE www.youtube.com/HooverInstitution from the Hoover Institution. ITUNES itunes.apple.com/us/itunes-u/hoover-institution Find daily articles, op-eds, blogs, INSTAGRAM https://instagram.com/hooverinstitution audio, and video in one app. Spring 2021 HOOVER DIGEST GEORGE P. SHULTZ (1920–2021) 9 The Shultz Way The irreplaceable “Great Convener” never lost sight of his goal—and his greatest talent was leading others toward it. By John F. Cogan and John B. Taylor 13 Sage of the Market George Shultz shone especially bright in his economic insights, which improved the lives of millions of Americans. By Michael J. Boskin 17 A Diplomat’s Diplomat How an “impossible dream” of freedom became, in one secretary of state’s practical hands, a reality. By Paul Wolfowitz 21 A Discerning Heart Remembering my friend, a man of wisdom and humility. By Henry A. Kissinger 25 How the Cold War Was Won George Shultz’s type of “soft power” put reason over rhetoric, especially when the stakes were highest. By Philip Taubman 28 In His Own Words “We just have to have some way of talking with Putin. I know it’s hard, but we’ve got to figure out how to do it.” By Peter Robinson HOOVER DIGEST • Spring 2021 3 33 “Trying to Make a Difference” The retired statesman reflected on his most celebrated role: adviser and guide to America’s most powerful citizen. By James E. Goodby 42 Many Bridges to Cross The life and times of the “Secretary of Everything.” By Robert L. Strauss 60 A Fitting Tribute The tale of a secret mission that delivered a belated salute to a statesman, teacher, and US Marine. By Christopher C. Starling THE ECONOMY 66 Debt Reckoning Debt can’t grow forever. It will take skill—and spine—to prepare for the day when the bills come due. By John H. Cochrane 72 College Isn’t Free—Nor Should It Be Wiping out student debt would involve staggering costs and unfair taxation. Worse, loan forgiveness would violate the principle of making degrees pay for themselves. By Richard A. Epstein 77 Bankers’ Green Temptation It’s reckless for central banks to try to enforce vague environmental policies. It also threatens their hard-won independence from politicians. By John H. Cochrane 4 HOOVER DIGEST • Spring 2021 DEMOCRACY 84 Wanted: Informed Patriots The January riot on Capitol Hill was a shocking example of civic ignorance and disrespect—and proof that our schools must teach civics again. By David Davenport POLITICS 88 The Majority-Minority Myth Identity politics, which supposedly boost the Democrats’ electoral chances, aren’t the sure bet they might appear. Why? Because Americans’ identities are steadily blending into each other. By Morris P. Fiorina FOREIGN POLICY 96 The World Is Not Getting Safer Why the Biden administration needs to recommit the country to the defense of our allies. By Kori Schake, Jim Mattis, Jim Ellis, and Joe Felter 104 Return to Europe What do Europeans hope to see in Washington in the next four years? An administration willing to make amends—and face its obligations. By Josef Joffe CHINA 110 The China Challenge Hoover fellow Elizabeth Economy and her colleagues seek to deepen our understanding of Chinese ambitions. By Jonathan Movroydis HOOVER DIGEST • Spring 2021 5 118 Détente Redux A new cold war, this time with China, calls for a new look at a doctrine that embraced both competition and cooperation. By Niall Ferguson 126 China without Illusions On China, the Trump administration wasn’t wrong. The Biden administration should consolidate and expand on its predecessor’s strategic conclusions. By H. R. McMaster IRAN 131 Courting Tehran? Not So Fast Iran must be held to account. By Russell A. Berman CYBERSECURITY 136 Keep Spies out in the Cold How to respond to the recent Russia hacking scare? Not by talking tough but by erecting tough barriers to further espionage. By Amy B. Zegart THE ENVIRONMENT 142 Adapt and Be Adept Successfully responding to climate change depends on harnessing market forces. By Terry L. Anderson 6 HOOVER DIGEST • Spring 2021 150 Gridlock on Electric Avenue Electric cars aren’t climate-change heroes. They do little to reduce carbon pollution and in some ways even increase it. By Bjorn Lomborg EDUCATION 154 In Search of a Breakthrough Schools need top-to-bottom transformation—now. By Clint Bolick and Kate J. Hardiman RACE RELATIONS 162 “Michael Brown Was Not Killed by Racism” Hoover fellow Shelby Steele’s documentary laments the tragedy of a young black man whose death far too many seized upon as a means to power. CALIFORNIA 174 Loved It, Leaving It The weather is as fine as ever. It’s California’s economic climate that’s driving people away.
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